Stephen Perez
| Year | Age | Lvl / Team | PA | AVG/OBP/SLG | HR | SB | wRC+ | WAR | MLE AVG/OBP/SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016 | 25 | AAWSH | 355 | .249/.354/.342 | 5 | 12 | 69 | — | .230/.303/.300 |
| 2017 | 26 | AAA/AA2 orgs | 315 | .207/.308/.289 | 4 | 9 | 40 | — | .185/.262/.250 |
| 2018 | 27 | AAWSH | 128 | .216/.344/.225 | 0 | 5 | 45 | — | .211/.295/.220 |
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built
All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | MLB% | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | SO | HBP | SB | CS | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | ISO | BABIP | K% | BB% | wOBA | wRC+ | BAT | RUN | FLD | POS | REP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2012 | 21 | ROK | GCL Nationals | — | 23 | 21 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 10 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 190 | 227 | 286 | 513 | 95 | 364 | 43 | 4 | 221 | -34 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2013 | 22 | A | Hagerstown Suns | — | 486 | 432 | 102 | 23 | 2 | 4 | 40 | 107 | 3 | 7 | 9 | 236 | 305 | 326 | 632 | 90 | 302 | 22 | 8 | 282 | 36 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 23 | A+ | Potomac Nationals | — | 518 | 431 | 111 | 25 | 2 | 2 | 72 | 90 | 3 | 27 | 6 | 258 | 368 | 339 | 706 | 81 | 317 | 17 | 14 | 321 | 64 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 24 | AA | Harrisburg Senators | — | 68 | 54 | 7 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 11 | 10 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 130 | 288 | 167 | 455 | 37 | 159 | 15 | 16 | 228 | 15 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 24 | A+ | Potomac Nationals | — | 446 | 381 | 84 | 17 | 3 | 2 | 48 | 77 | 1 | 15 | 5 | 220 | 309 | 297 | 606 | 76 | 265 | 17 | 11 | 272 | 35 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 25 | AA | Harrisburg Senators | — | 355 | 301 | 75 | 9 | 2 | 5 | 47 | 59 | 2 | 12 | 3 | 249 | 354 | 342 | 696 | 93 | 292 | 17 | 13 | 318 | 69 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 26 | AAA | Syracuse Chiefs | — | 41 | 36 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 9 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 167 | 250 | 222 | 472 | 56 | 214 | 22 | 10 | 219 | 7 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 26 | AA | Harrisburg Senators | — | 274 | 230 | 49 | 6 | 1 | 4 | 30 | 69 | 5 | 9 | 2 | 213 | 317 | 300 | 617 | 87 | 285 | 25 | 11 | 280 | 45 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 27 | AA | Harrisburg Senators | — | 128 | 102 | 22 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 19 | 30 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 216 | 344 | 225 | 570 | 10 | 297 | 23 | 15 | 268 | 45 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2012 | 21 | ROK MLE | GCL Nationals | — | 23 | 21 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 14 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 95 | 136 | 143 | 279 | 48 | 273 | 61 | 4 | 118 | -34 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2013 | 22 | A MLE | Hagerstown Suns | — | 486 | 446 | 86 | 17 | 2 | 4 | 26 | 144 | 3 | 7 | 9 | 193 | 242 | 267 | 509 | 74 | 263 | 30 | 5 | 222 | 36 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 23 | A+ MLE | Potomac Nationals | — | 518 | 458 | 103 | 21 | 1 | 2 | 45 | 128 | 3 | 27 | 6 | 225 | 298 | 288 | 587 | 63 | 292 | 25 | 9 | 263 | 64 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 24 | AA MLE | Harrisburg Senators | — | 68 | 58 | 8 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 12 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 138 | 242 | 172 | 415 | 34 | 158 | 18 | 10 | 191 | 15 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 24 | A+ MLE | Potomac Nationals | — | 446 | 400 | 76 | 14 | 3 | 2 | 29 | 109 | 1 | 15 | 5 | 190 | 247 | 255 | 502 | 65 | 236 | 24 | 7 | 220 | 35 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 25 | AA MLE | Harrisburg Senators | — | 355 | 317 | 73 | 9 | 2 | 3 | 31 | 73 | 2 | 12 | 3 | 230 | 303 | 300 | 603 | 69 | 281 | 21 | 9 | 270 | 69 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 26 | AAA MLE | Syracuse Chiefs | — | 41 | 37 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 11 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 162 | 225 | 216 | 441 | 54 | 189 | 27 | 7 | 179 | 7 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 26 | AA MLE | Harrisburg Senators | — | 274 | 239 | 45 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 21 | 82 | 5 | 9 | 2 | 188 | 268 | 255 | 523 | 67 | 259 | 30 | 8 | 235 | 45 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 27 | AA MLE | Harrisburg Senators | — | 128 | 109 | 23 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 12 | 37 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 211 | 295 | 220 | 515 | 9 | 285 | 29 | 9 | 234 | 45 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2012 | 21 | ROK MLE | GCL Nationals | — | 23 | 21 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 14 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 95 | 136 | 143 | 279 | 48 | 286 | 61 | 4 | 118 | -34 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2012 | 21 | ROK RAW | GCL Nationals | — | 23 | 21 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 10 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 190 | 227 | 286 | 513 | 95 | 364 | 43 | 4 | 221 | -34 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2013 | 22 | A MLE | Hagerstown Suns | — | 486 | 446 | 86 | 17 | 2 | 4 | 26 | 144 | 3 | 7 | 9 | 193 | 242 | 267 | 509 | 74 | 272 | 30 | 5 | 222 | 36 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2013 | 22 | A RAW | Hagerstown Suns | — | 486 | 432 | 102 | 23 | 2 | 4 | 40 | 107 | 3 | 7 | 9 | 236 | 305 | 326 | 632 | 90 | 302 | 22 | 8 | 282 | 36 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 23 | A+ MLE | Potomac Nationals | — | 518 | 458 | 103 | 21 | 1 | 2 | 45 | 128 | 3 | 27 | 6 | 225 | 298 | 288 | 587 | 63 | 303 | 25 | 9 | 263 | 64 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 23 | A+ RAW | Potomac Nationals | — | 518 | 431 | 111 | 25 | 2 | 2 | 72 | 90 | 3 | 27 | 6 | 258 | 368 | 339 | 706 | 81 | 317 | 17 | 14 | 321 | 64 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 24 | A+ MLE | 2 teams | — | 514 | 458 | 84 | 16 | 3 | 2 | 36 | 121 | 2 | 16 | 5 | 183 | 246 | 245 | 491 | 61 | 240 | 24 | 7 | 216 | 32 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 24 | A+ RAW | 2 teams | — | 514 | 435 | 91 | 19 | 3 | 2 | 59 | 87 | 2 | 16 | 5 | 209 | 306 | 280 | 587 | 71 | 252 | 17 | 11 | 266 | 32 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 25 | AA MLE | Harrisburg Senators | — | 355 | 317 | 73 | 9 | 2 | 3 | 31 | 73 | 2 | 12 | 3 | 230 | 303 | 300 | 603 | 69 | 287 | 21 | 9 | 270 | 69 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 25 | AA RAW | Harrisburg Senators | — | 355 | 301 | 75 | 9 | 2 | 5 | 47 | 59 | 2 | 12 | 3 | 249 | 354 | 342 | 696 | 93 | 292 | 17 | 13 | 318 | 69 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 26 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 315 | 276 | 51 | 7 | 1 | 3 | 24 | 93 | 5 | 9 | 3 | 185 | 262 | 250 | 512 | 65 | 264 | 30 | 8 | 228 | 40 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 26 | AA RAW | 2 teams | — | 315 | 266 | 55 | 8 | 1 | 4 | 34 | 78 | 5 | 9 | 3 | 207 | 308 | 289 | 598 | 83 | 274 | 25 | 11 | 272 | 40 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 27 | AA MLE | Harrisburg Senators | — | 128 | 109 | 23 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 12 | 37 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 211 | 295 | 220 | 515 | 9 | 311 | 29 | 9 | 234 | 45 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 27 | AA RAW | Harrisburg Senators | — | 128 | 102 | 22 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 19 | 30 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 216 | 344 | 225 | 570 | 10 | 297 | 23 | 15 | 268 | 45 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2012 | 21 | ROK MLE | GCL Nationals | — | 23 | 22 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 14 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 91 | 136 | 136 | 273 | 45 | 273 | 61 | 4 | 118 | -34 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2013 | 22 | A MLE | Hagerstown Suns | — | 486 | 454 | 86 | 17 | 2 | 4 | 26 | 144 | 3 | 7 | 9 | 189 | 242 | 262 | 504 | 73 | 263 | 30 | 5 | 222 | 36 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 23 | A+ MLE | Potomac Nationals | — | 518 | 465 | 103 | 21 | 1 | 2 | 45 | 128 | 3 | 27 | 6 | 222 | 298 | 284 | 582 | 62 | 292 | 25 | 9 | 263 | 64 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 24 | A+ MLE | 2 teams | — | 514 | 471 | 84 | 16 | 3 | 2 | 36 | 121 | 2 | 16 | 5 | 178 | 246 | 238 | 484 | 59 | 226 | 24 | 7 | 216 | 32 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 25 | AA MLE | Harrisburg Senators | — | 355 | 319 | 73 | 9 | 2 | 3 | 31 | 73 | 2 | 12 | 3 | 229 | 303 | 298 | 601 | 69 | 281 | 21 | 9 | 270 | 69 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 26 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 315 | 283 | 51 | 7 | 1 | 3 | 24 | 93 | 5 | 9 | 3 | 180 | 262 | 244 | 506 | 64 | 250 | 30 | 8 | 228 | 40 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 27 | AA MLE | Harrisburg Senators | — | 128 | 114 | 23 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 12 | 37 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 202 | 295 | 211 | 506 | 9 | 285 | 29 | 9 | 234 | 45 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Career Totals | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | MLE | — | 2339 | 2085 | 422 | 72 | 9 | 14 | 175 | 610 | 16 | 76 | 30 | 202 | 269 | 266 | 535 | 63 | 275 | 26 | 7 | 237 | 47 | -148 | +3 | +0 | +25 | +51 | -7.0 | |
| / 162G | — | MLE | — | 650 | 579 | 118 | 20 | 3 | 4 | 49 | 170 | 4 | 21 | 8 | 204 | 270 | 269 | 540 | 66 | 277 | 26 | 8 | 237 | 47 | -41 | +1 | +0 | +7 | +14 | -1.9 | |
How the minor-league lines were translated
One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.
2018 AAHarrisburg Senators · 128 PAwOBA .263 → .234 (−29)K% 23.4% → 29.0%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 23.44% | ÷0.987 | ×1.220 | — | — | 28.97% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 14.06% | ÷1.037 | ×0.700 | — | ×0.968 | 9.19% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.78% | — | ×0.850 | — | ×0.968 | 0.64% |
| Singles /BIP | 29.17% | ÷1.017 | ×0.970 | ×1.041 | ×0.968 | 28.05% |
| Doubles /BIP | 1.39% | ÷1.012 | ×0.860 | ×1.041 | ×0.968 | 1.19% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.070 | ×0.950 | ×1.041 | ×0.968 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.925 | ×0.780 | — | ×0.968 | 0.00% |
Factors used: league row EL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 85, 1B 103, 2B 102, 3B 114, K 97, BB 107 — applied at half strength. Age: age 28 vs a level average of 24.8 → −3.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.041.
Result: wOBA .263 → .234; ISO .010 → .009; BABIP .297 → .285. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2017 AAHarrisburg Senators · 274 PAwOBA .274 → .235 (−39)K% 25.2% → 30.1%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 25.18% | ÷1.022 | ×1.220 | — | — | 30.06% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 10.95% | ÷0.974 | ×0.700 | — | ×0.978 | 7.69% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.82% | — | ×0.850 | — | ×0.978 | 1.52% |
| Singles /BIP | 23.60% | ÷1.016 | ×0.970 | ×0.989 | ×0.978 | 21.79% |
| Doubles /BIP | 3.73% | ÷0.998 | ×0.860 | ×0.989 | ×0.978 | 3.10% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.62% | ÷0.906 | ×0.950 | ×0.989 | ×0.978 | 0.63% |
| Home runs /BIP | 2.48% | ÷0.970 | ×0.780 | — | ×0.978 | 1.95% |
Factors used: league row EL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 94, 1B 103, 2B 100, 3B 81, K 104, BB 95 — applied at half strength. Age: age 27 vs a level average of 24.8 → −2.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.989.
Result: wOBA .274 → .235; ISO .087 → .074; BABIP .285 → .259. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2017 AAASyracuse Chiefs · 41 PAwOBA .219 → .179 (−40)K% 22.0% → 26.2%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 21.95% | ÷1.005 | ×1.200 | — | — | 26.21% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 9.76% | ÷1.033 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.003 | 6.54% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×1.003 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 14.81% | ÷0.997 | ×0.930 | — | ×1.003 | 13.86% |
| Doubles /BIP | 7.41% | ÷1.081 | ×0.830 | — | ×1.003 | 5.71% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.150 | ×0.970 | — | ×1.003 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.980 | ×0.840 | — | ×1.003 | 0.00% |
Factors used: league row IL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 96, 1B 99, 2B 116, 3B 130, K 101, BB 107 — applied at half strength. Age: age 27 vs a level average of 27.2 → +0.3% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr younger than average).
Result: wOBA .219 → .179; ISO .056 → .044; BABIP .214 → .189. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2016 AAHarrisburg Senators · 355 PAwOBA .311 → .270 (−41)K% 16.6% → 20.7%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 16.62% | ÷0.980 | ×1.220 | — | — | 20.69% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 12.68% | ÷0.992 | ×0.700 | — | ×0.988 | 8.84% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.56% | — | ×0.850 | — | ×0.988 | 0.47% |
| Singles /BIP | 24.38% | ÷1.029 | ×0.970 | ×1.050 | ×0.988 | 23.83% |
| Doubles /BIP | 3.72% | ÷0.922 | ×0.860 | ×1.050 | ×0.988 | 3.60% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.83% | ÷1.137 | ×0.950 | ×1.050 | ×0.988 | 0.72% |
| Home runs /BIP | 2.07% | ÷1.445 | ×0.780 | — | ×0.988 | 1.10% |
Factors used: league row EL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 189, 1B 106, 2B 84, 3B 127, K 96, BB 98 — applied at half strength. Age: age 26 vs a level average of 24.8 → −1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.050.
Result: wOBA .311 → .270; ISO .093 → .069; BABIP .292 → .281. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2015 A+Potomac Nationals · 446 PAwOBA .269 → .220 (−50)K% 17.3% → 24.4%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 17.26% | ÷1.006 | ×1.420 | — | — | 24.36% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 10.76% | ÷1.022 | ×0.630 | — | ×0.978 | 6.49% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.22% | — | ×0.860 | — | ×0.978 | 0.19% |
| Singles /BIP | 20.39% | ÷1.030 | ×0.940 | ×1.023 | ×0.978 | 18.62% |
| Doubles /BIP | 5.59% | ÷1.016 | ×0.830 | ×1.023 | ×0.978 | 4.57% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.99% | ÷0.937 | ×0.800 | ×1.023 | ×0.978 | 0.84% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.66% | ÷0.900 | ×0.900 | — | ×0.978 | 0.64% |
Factors used: league row CAR. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 80, 1B 106, 2B 103, 3B 87, K 101, BB 104 — applied at half strength. Age: age 25 vs a level average of 22.8 → −2.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.023.
Result: wOBA .269 → .220; ISO .076 → .066; BABIP .265 → .236. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2015 AAHarrisburg Senators · 68 PAwOBA .224 → .191 (−32)K% 14.7% → 17.6%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 14.71% | ÷1.018 | ×1.220 | — | — | 17.62% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 16.18% | ÷1.052 | ×0.700 | — | ×0.998 | 10.75% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.47% | — | ×0.850 | — | ×0.998 | 1.25% |
| Singles /BIP | 11.36% | ÷0.962 | ×0.970 | ×1.050 | ×0.998 | 12.01% |
| Doubles /BIP | 4.55% | ÷1.070 | ×0.860 | ×1.050 | ×0.998 | 3.83% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.916 | ×0.950 | ×1.050 | ×0.998 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.986 | ×0.780 | — | ×0.998 | 0.00% |
Factors used: league row EL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 97, 1B 92, 2B 114, 3B 83, K 104, BB 110 — applied at half strength. Age: age 25 vs a level average of 24.8 → −0.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.050.
Result: wOBA .224 → .191; ISO .037 → .034; BABIP .159 → .158. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2014 A+Potomac Nationals · 518 PAwOBA .313 → .263 (−51)K% 17.4% → 24.8%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 17.37% | ÷0.996 | ×1.420 | — | — | 24.77% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 13.13% | ÷0.943 | ×0.630 | — | ×0.988 | 8.67% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.58% | — | ×0.860 | — | ×0.988 | 0.49% |
| Singles /BIP | 24.05% | ÷1.012 | ×0.940 | ×1.042 | ×0.988 | 23.00% |
| Doubles /BIP | 7.33% | ÷1.037 | ×0.830 | ×1.042 | ×0.988 | 6.05% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.59% | ÷1.150 | ×0.800 | ×1.042 | ×0.988 | 0.42% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.59% | ÷0.988 | ×0.900 | — | ×0.988 | 0.53% |
Factors used: league row CAR. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 98, 1B 102, 2B 107, 3B 130, K 99, BB 89 — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 22.8 → −1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.042.
Result: wOBA .313 → .263; ISO .081 → .067; BABIP .317 → .292. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2013 AHagerstown Suns · 486 PAwOBA .277 → .222 (−55)K% 22.0% → 29.6%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 22.02% | ÷0.997 | ×1.340 | — | — | 29.58% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 8.23% | ÷1.021 | ×0.660 | — | ×0.990 | 5.27% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.62% | — | ×0.770 | — | ×0.990 | 0.47% |
| Singles /BIP | 22.46% | ÷1.059 | ×0.920 | ×1.041 | ×0.990 | 20.11% |
| Doubles /BIP | 7.08% | ÷1.091 | ×0.820 | ×1.041 | ×0.990 | 5.48% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.62% | ÷0.910 | ×0.940 | ×1.041 | ×0.990 | 0.66% |
| Home runs /BIP | 1.23% | ÷0.856 | ×0.820 | — | ×0.990 | 1.17% |
Factors used: league row SAL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 71, 1B 112, 2B 118, 3B 82, K 99, BB 104 — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 22.0 → −1.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.0 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.041.
Result: wOBA .277 → .222; ISO .090 → .075; BABIP .302 → .263. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).