Adrian Pinto

2B New Hampshire Fisher Cats

Age 24 R/R 5'6" / 156 lbs AA Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2033

Overview

AAPROSPECTMiLBFA 2034

OGV OFP35OGV rank#854ETA2029MLB%2%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	PA	AVG/OBP/SLG	HR	SB	wRC+	WAR	MLE AVG/OBP/SLG
2024	21	A+/A/ROK/INTL2 orgs	214	.305/.387/.476	5	9	114	—	.279/.325/.460
2025	22	A+TOR	85	.284/.376/.608	7	3	130	—	.247/.318/.519
2026	23	AA/ATOR	219	.240/.358/.388	3	1	81	—	.228/.316/.363
2027PROJMLE	24	MLBTOR	3	.230/.305/.373	0	0	91	0.0
2028PROJ28% MLB	25	MLBTOR	50	.232/.308/.380	1	1	93	0.1
2029PROJ44% MLB	26	MLBTOR	103	.233/.309/.383	3	1	95	0.3

Next 3 projected WAR 0.4Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2033Service0.0First FA2034

2027MiLB2028Pre-Arb$0.8M2029Pre-Arb$0.8M2030Pre-Arb$0.8M2031Arb-1$1M2032Arb-2$2M2033Arb-3$2M

Skills · percentileMiLB Statcast 2026 AA

Chase%88

K%87

BB%82

Whiff%77

Z-Con%73

wRC+56

Career WAR0.0 WAR median (P10 -0.1 / P90 2.5, comp-based) · star 2% · didn't stick 89%

CompsJavier Valdes (age 24) · Miguel Amaya (age 24) · Tim Tawa (age 24)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONstats below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+†91

AVG/OBP/SLG.230 / .305 / .373

PA3

HR0

K%33

BB%8

BABIP279

ISO145

MLB%2%

Value2027 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$3M ctrl surplus

Contract

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2028

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2033

First FA Year 2034

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2028
2028	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.1	$0.4M	+$0.0M (cut)
2029	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.3	$1M	+$0.4M
2030	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.3	$1.0M	+$0.3M
2031	Arb-1	$1M	+0.3	$0.9M	+$0.0M (cut)
2032	Arb-2	$2M	+0.2	$0.5M	+$0.0M (cut)
2033	Arb-3	$2M	+0.1	$0.3M	+$0.0M (cut)
Totals		$2M		$4M	+$0.7M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2021	18	ROK	DSL Colorado	—	224	175	63	15	4	3	38	18	7	41	8	360	491	543	1.034	183	385	8	17	450	87	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	19	A	Dunedin Blue Jays	—	194	157	38	5	4	2	24	32	10	18	7	242	377	363	740	121	290	16	12	338	80	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	20	A	Dunedin Blue Jays	—	129	100	26	4	0	0	23	25	3	12	4	260	413	300	713	40	347	19	18	336	78	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	20	ROK	FCL Blue Jays	—	20	15	2	1	0	0	4	2	1	0	0	133	350	200	550	67	154	10	20	286	19	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	21	A+	Vancouver Canadians	—	76	70	21	8	1	3	4	10	2	2	0	300	355	571	927	271	316	13	5	402	106	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	21	A	Dunedin Blue Jays	—	18	16	5	0	0	0	1	4	0	0	0	312	353	312	665		417	22	6	290	63	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	21	ROK	FCL Blue Jays	—	18	17	8	3	0	1	1	2	0	0	0	471	500	824	1.324	353	500	11	6	569	157	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	21	INTL	Scottsdale Scorpions	—	102	84	23	2	1	1	14	13	3	7	2	274	396	357	753	83	310	13	14	347	121	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	22	A+	Vancouver Canadians	—	85	74	21	3	0	7	8	14	3	3	1	284	376	608	985	324	264	16	9	425	130	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	23	AA	New Hampshire Fisher Cats	—	178	150	36	12	2	2	25	30	1	1	1	240	350	387	737	147	288	17	14	332	82	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	23	A	Dunedin Blue Jays	—	41	33	8	2	0	1	7	6	1	0	0	242	390	394	784	152	269	15	17	361	76	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2021	18	ROK MLE	DSL Colorado	—	224	188	44	9	3	1	25	22	7	41	8	234	345	330	675	96	246	10	11	297	87	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	19	A MLE	Dunedin Blue Jays	—	194	165	36	4	4	2	16	43	10	18	7	218	325	327	652	109	271	22	8	286	80	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	20	A MLE	Dunedin Blue Jays	—	129	108	27	4	0	0	15	33	3	12	4	250	357	287	644	37	337	26	12	284	78	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	20	ROK MLE	FCL Blue Jays	—	20	17	2	1	0	0	2	3	1	0	0	118	250	176	426	59	118	15	10	196	19	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	21	A+ MLE	Vancouver Canadians	—	76	71	18	6	1	2	3	14	2	2	0	254	303	451	753	197	287	18	4	325	106	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	21	A MLE	Dunedin Blue Jays	—	18	16	5	0	0	0	1	5	0	0	0	312	353	312	665		398	28	6	262	63	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	21	ROK MLE	FCL Blue Jays	—	18	17	6	2	0	1	1	3	0	0	0	353	389	647	1.036	294	369	17	6	400	157	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	22	A+ MLE	Vancouver Canadians	—	85	77	19	3	0	6	5	20	3	3	1	247	318	519	837	273	247	24	6	360	130	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	23	AA MLE	New Hampshire Fisher Cats	—	178	158	36	11	2	2	18	37	1	1	1	228	311	361	671	133	280	21	10	289	82	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	23	A MLE	Dunedin Blue Jays	—	41	35	8	2	0	1	5	8	1	0	0	229	341	371	713	143	234	20	12	280	76	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	18	ROK MLE	DSL Colorado	—	224	188	44	9	3	1	25	22	7	41	8	234	345	330	675	96	257	10	11	297	87	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	18	ROK RAW	DSL Colorado	—	224	175	63	15	4	3	38	18	7	41	8	360	491	543	1.034	183	385	8	17	450	87	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	19	A MLE	Dunedin Blue Jays	—	194	165	36	4	4	2	16	43	10	18	7	218	325	327	652	109	281	22	8	286	80	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	19	A RAW	Dunedin Blue Jays	—	194	157	38	5	4	2	24	32	10	18	7	242	377	363	740	121	290	16	12	338	80	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	20	A MLE	2 teams	—	149	124	28	4	0	0	18	36	4	12	4	226	342	258	601	32	318	24	12	272	70	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	20	A RAW	2 teams	—	149	115	28	5	0	0	27	27	4	12	4	243	404	287	691	43	318	18	18	329	70	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	21	INTL MLE	4 teams	—	214	199	56	16	2	6	8	42	5	9	2	281	325	472	798	191	329	20	4	327	107	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	21	INTL RAW	4 teams	—	214	187	57	13	2	5	20	29	5	9	2	305	387	476	863	171	338	14	9	381	107	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	22	A+ MLE	Vancouver Canadians	—	85	77	19	3	0	6	5	20	3	3	1	247	318	519	837	273	255	24	6	360	130	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	22	A+ RAW	Vancouver Canadians	—	85	74	21	3	0	7	8	14	3	3	1	284	376	608	985	324	264	16	9	425	130	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	23	AA MLE	2 teams	—	219	194	42	13	2	2	22	45	2	1	1	216	303	335	638	119	272	21	10	287	81	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	23	AA RAW	2 teams	—	219	183	44	14	2	3	32	36	2	1	1	240	358	388	746	148	285	16	15	337	81	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	18	ROK MLE	DSL Colorado	—	224	190	44	9	3	1	25	22	7	41	8	232	345	326	672	95	246	10	11	297	87	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	19	A MLE	Dunedin Blue Jays	—	194	166	36	4	4	2	16	43	10	18	7	217	325	325	650	108	271	22	8	286	80	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	20	A MLE	2 teams	—	149	126	28	4	0	0	18	36	4	12	4	222	342	254	596	32	308	24	12	272	70	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	21	INTL MLE	4 teams	—	214	199	56	16	2	6	8	42	5	9	2	281	325	472	798	191	318	20	4	327	107	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	22	A+ MLE	Vancouver Canadians	—	85	77	19	3	0	6	5	20	3	3	1	247	318	519	837	273	247	24	6	360	130	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	23	AA MLE	2 teams	—	219	193	42	13	2	2	22	45	2	1	1	218	303	337	640	119	271	21	10	287	81	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons)
2024	21	INTL MLE	4 teams	—	214	199	56	16	2	6	8	42	5	9	2	281	325	472	798	191	318	20	4	327	107	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	22	A+ MLE	Vancouver Canadians	—	85	77	19	3	0	6	5	20	3	3	1	247	318	519	837	273	247	24	6	360	130	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	23	AA MLE	2 teams	—	219	193	42	13	2	2	22	45	2	1	1	218	303	337	640	119	271	21	10	287	81	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2027 season
▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability)
2027	24	MLB MLE	TOR	2%	269	241	55	12	2	6	23	61	3	4	1	229	305	372	677	143	278	23	9	303	91	-3	+0	+1	+1	+6	0.3
▸ 2027 — real world (MLB)
2027	24	MLB CTX	TOR	2%	3	3	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	230	305	373	679	143	279	33	0	304	91	-0	+0	+0	+0	+0	0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
2028	25	MLB MLE	TOR	28%	177	158	36	8	1	4	15	40	2	3	1	231	307	379	686	148	279	23	8	306	93	-1	+0	+1	+1	+4	0.4
2029	26	MLB MLE	TOR	44%	235	209	48	10	1	6	21	53	3	3	1	232	308	382	690	150	279	23	9	308	95	-1	+0	+1	+1	+5	0.5
2030	27	MLB MLE	TOR	50%	266	238	56	12	2	7	23	60	3	3	1	232	308	381	688	149	279	23	9	307	94	-2	+0	+1	+1	+6	0.6
2031	28	MLB MLE	TOR	55%	286	256	60	13	2	7	25	65	3	3	1	231	306	378	684	147	279	23	9	306	93	-2	+0	+0	+1	+6	0.5
2032	29	MLB MLE	TOR	56%	289	259	59	12	2	7	25	67	3	2	1	229	304	373	677	144	278	23	9	303	91	-3	+0	-1	+1	+6	0.4
2033	30	MLB MLE	TOR	56%	289	259	58	12	1	7	25	68	3	1	1	226	300	365	665	139	276	24	9	298	88	-4	-0	-1	+1	+6	0.2
2028	25	MLB CTX	TOR	28%	50	45	10	2	0	1	4	11	1	1	0	232	308	380	688	148	280	22	8	307	93	-0	+0	+0	+0	+1	0.1
2029	26	MLB CTX	TOR	44%	103	92	23	5	1	3	9	23	1	1	0	233	309	383	692	150	280	22	9	309	95	-1	+0	+0	+0	+2	0.3
2030	27	MLB CTX	TOR	50%	134	120	28	6	1	3	12	30	1	2	1	233	308	382	690	149	280	22	9	308	94	-1	+0	+0	+0	+3	0.3
2031	28	MLB CTX	TOR	55%	156	139	33	7	1	4	14	36	2	2	1	231	307	379	686	147	280	23	9	306	93	-1	+0	+0	+1	+3	0.3
2032	29	MLB CTX	TOR	56%	161	144	33	7	1	4	14	37	2	1	1	230	305	374	679	144	279	23	9	304	91	-2	-0	-0	+1	+3	0.2
2033	30	MLB CTX	TOR	56%	162	145	33	7	1	4	14	38	2	1	0	227	301	366	667	139	277	23	9	299	88	-2	+0	-1	+1	+4	0.1
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	766	685	160	34	5	19	67	175	9	8	3	234	310	381	691	147	284	23	9	305	91	-7	+0	+0	+3	+17	1.3
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	581	136	29	4	16	57	148	8	7	3	234	311	380	692	146	285	23	9	305	91	-6	+0	+0	+2	+14	1.1
Career	—	MLE		—	2757	2443	569	122	21	58	239	590	49	101	30	233	314	371	685	138	283	21	9	303	91	-16	+1	+1	+6	+36	2.9
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	576	135	29	5	14	56	139	12	24	7	234	316	375	691	141	284	21	9	303	91	-6	+0	+0	+2	+14	1.1

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 AANew Hampshire Fisher Cats · 178 PAwOBA .324 → .289 (−35)K% 16.9% → 20.6%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	16.85%	÷1.000	×1.220	—	—	20.56%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	14.04%	÷1.000	×0.700	—	×1.012	9.95%
HBP% /PA	0.56%	—	×0.850	—	×1.012	0.48%
Singles /BIP	16.67%	÷1.000	×0.970	×1.035	×1.012	16.94%
Doubles /BIP	10.00%	÷1.000	×0.860	×1.035	×1.012	9.01%
Triples /BIP	1.67%	÷1.000	×0.950	×1.035	×1.012	1.66%
Home runs /BIP	1.67%	÷1.000	×0.780	—	×1.012	1.32%

Factors used: league row EL. Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 24.8 → +1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.035.

Result: wOBA .324 → .289; ISO .147 → .133; BABIP .288 → .280. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2026 ADunedin Blue Jays · 41 PAwOBA .352 → .280 (−72)K% 14.6% → 19.9%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	14.63%	÷1.000	×1.360	—	—	19.90%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	17.07%	÷1.000	×0.690	—	×0.980	11.54%
HBP% /PA	2.44%	—	×0.780	—	×0.980	1.86%
Singles /BIP	18.52%	÷1.000	×0.920	—	×0.980	16.70%
Doubles /BIP	7.41%	÷1.000	×0.830	—	×0.980	6.03%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷1.000	×0.910	—	×0.980	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	3.70%	÷1.000	×0.800	—	×0.980	2.90%

Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 22.0 → −2.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.0 yr older than average).

Result: wOBA .352 → .280; ISO .152 → .122; BABIP .269 → .234. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 A+Vancouver Canadians · 85 PAwOBA .413 → .360 (−53)K% 16.5% → 23.2%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	16.47%	÷0.958	×1.350	—	—	23.21%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	9.41%	÷1.039	×0.710	—	×0.998	6.42%
HBP% /PA	3.53%	—	×0.810	—	×0.998	2.85%
Singles /BIP	18.33%	÷1.022	×0.910	×1.050	×0.998	17.10%
Doubles /BIP	5.00%	÷0.898	×0.830	×1.050	×0.998	4.84%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷0.939	×0.820	×1.050	×0.998	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	11.67%	÷0.855	×0.830	—	×0.998	11.30%

Factors used: level-wide A+ factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 71, 1B 104, 2B 80, 3B 88, K 92, BB 108 — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 22.8 → −0.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.050.

Result: wOBA .413 → .360; ISO .324 → .300; BABIP .264 → .247. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 A+Vancouver Canadians · 76 PAwOBA .390 → .325 (−65)K% 13.2% → 18.1%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	13.16%	÷0.980	×1.350	—	—	18.12%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	5.26%	÷0.974	×0.710	—	×1.012	3.88%
HBP% /PA	2.63%	—	×0.810	—	×1.012	2.16%
Singles /BIP	15.00%	÷0.964	×0.910	×1.050	×1.012	15.05%
Doubles /BIP	13.33%	÷1.071	×0.830	×1.050	×1.012	10.98%
Triples /BIP	1.67%	÷0.936	×0.820	×1.050	×1.012	1.55%
Home runs /BIP	5.00%	÷1.062	×0.830	—	×1.012	3.95%

Factors used: level-wide A+ factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 112, 1B 93, 2B 114, 3B 87, K 96, BB 95 — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 22.8 → +1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.050.

Result: wOBA .390 → .325; ISO .271 → .214; BABIP .316 → .287. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 ADunedin Blue Jays · 18 PAwOBA .283 → .262 (−20)K% 22.2% → 29.0%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	22.22%	÷1.041	×1.360	—	—	29.04%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	5.56%	÷0.959	×0.690	—	—	4.00%
HBP% /PA	0.00%	—	×0.780	—	—	0.00%
Singles /BIP	41.67%	÷0.962	×0.920	—	—	39.83%
Doubles /BIP	0.00%	÷0.999	×0.830	—	—	0.00%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷1.150	×0.910	—	—	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	0.00%	÷1.003	×0.800	—	—	0.00%

Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 101, 1B 92, 2B 100, 3B 130, K 108, BB 92 — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 22.0 → +0.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.0 yr younger than average).

Result: wOBA .283 → .262; ISO .000 → .000; BABIP .417 → .398. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 ROKFCL Blue Jays · 18 PAwOBA .553 → .400 (−153)K% 11.1% → 15.9%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	11.11%	÷1.009	×1.440	—	—	15.86%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	5.56%	÷1.042	×0.620	—	×0.975	3.22%
HBP% /PA	0.00%	—	×0.720	—	×0.975	0.00%
Singles /BIP	26.67%	÷1.016	×0.820	—	×0.975	20.98%
Doubles /BIP	20.00%	÷1.012	×0.720	—	×0.975	13.87%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷1.150	×0.720	—	×0.975	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	6.67%	÷0.925	×0.780	—	×0.975	5.48%

Factors used: level-wide ROK factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 85, 1B 103, 2B 102, 3B 130, K 102, BB 108 — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 19.5 → −2.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.5 yr older than average).

Result: wOBA .553 → .400; ISO .353 → .260; BABIP .500 → .369. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 ADunedin Blue Jays · 129 PAwOBA .328 → .284 (−45)K% 19.4% → 25.9%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	19.38%	÷1.018	×1.360	—	—	25.90%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	17.83%	÷1.062	×0.690	—	×1.015	11.76%
HBP% /PA	2.33%	—	×0.780	—	×1.015	1.84%
Singles /BIP	29.33%	÷0.988	×0.920	×1.050	×1.015	29.12%
Doubles /BIP	5.33%	÷1.034	×0.830	×1.050	×1.015	4.56%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷1.111	×0.910	×1.050	×1.015	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	0.00%	÷1.279	×0.800	—	×1.015	0.00%

Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 156, 1B 98, 2B 107, 3B 122, K 104, BB 112 — applied at half strength. Age: age 21 vs a level average of 22.0 → +1.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.0 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.050.

Result: wOBA .328 → .284; ISO .040 → .036; BABIP .347 → .337. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 ROKFCL Blue Jays · 20 PAwOBA .280 → .196 (−84)K% 10.0% → 14.3%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	10.00%	÷1.006	×1.440	—	—	14.32%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	20.00%	÷1.000	×0.620	—	×0.985	12.21%
HBP% /PA	5.00%	—	×0.720	—	×0.985	3.55%
Singles /BIP	7.69%	÷0.968	×0.820	—	×0.985	6.42%
Doubles /BIP	7.69%	÷1.008	×0.720	—	×0.985	5.41%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷1.042	×0.720	—	×0.985	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	0.00%	÷1.005	×0.780	—	×0.985	0.00%

Factors used: level-wide ROK factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 101, 1B 94, 2B 102, 3B 108, K 101, BB 100 — applied at half strength. Age: age 21 vs a level average of 19.5 → −1.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.5 yr older than average).

Result: wOBA .280 → .196; ISO .067 → .050; BABIP .154 → .118. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Not traceable per stint: some stints lack the counting stats the component translation needs. Level-wide factors that apply instead — .

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	162s	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Sean Rodríguezlast yr '19 career totals — 11 seasons, 2,871 PA	4.3	2,871	79	42	226	302	380	+10	+16	8.1	8.5
/162	664	18	10	+2.3	+3.7	1.9	pk7: 9
#2Jack Hannahanlast yr '14 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,867 PA	2.8	1,867	29	6	232	315	348	+6	+29	6.2	6.2
/162	664	10	2	+2.0	+10.4	2.2	pk7: 6
#3Shane Halter'97-'04 * career totals — 7 seasons, 2,109 PA	3.2	2,109	45	17	238*	295*	375*	+6	+26	5.3	5.3
/162	664	14	5	+2.0	+8.3	1.7	pk7: 5
#4Ed Spiezio'64-'72 * career totals — 7 seasons, 1,716 PA	2.6	1,716	39	16	238*	304*	389*	+5	+8	4.7	4.9
/162	664	15	6	+1.9	+3.3	1.8	pk7: 5
#5Adam Rosaleslast yr '17 career totals — 9 seasons, 1,756 PA	2.6	1,756	47	16	227	293	367	+6	+8	3.0	3.5
/162	664	18	6	+2.4	+3.0	1.1	pk7: 4
#6Scott Leius'90-'99 * career totals — 5 seasons, 1,727 PA	2.6	1,727	28	16	237*	306*	358*	+5	+5	1.5	2.1
/162	664	11	6	+2.0	+1.9	0.6	pk7: 3
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 3 projected seasons	1.2	769	19	7	231	303	377	+3	+6	1.7	1.7
/162	664	17	6	+2.4	+5.2	1.5	pk7: 2

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Adrian Pinto (OGILVIE)	24	—	—	—	—	227/302/369	142	278	3	2	23%	9%	91	+0.1	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Javier Valdes 2023 · AA	24	43	48→55	50→30	46	219/300/358	139	268	17	5	25%	7%	88	+0.5	217/301/360	143	265	16	5	24%	8%	88	+0.5	207/318/364	157	258	17	2	25%	11%	94	+0.4
✕Miguel Amaya 2023 · AA	24	46→43	45→50	50→40	47	222/310/350	128	316	13	6	31%	9%	90	+0.6	230/306/374	144	286	16	3	24%	8%	94	+0.9	230/302/374	144	273	16	1	22%	7%	92	+0.3
✕Tim Tawa 2023 · AA	24	43→45	45→55	49→50	47	215/282/334	119	268	14	12	25%	8%	75	-0.5	214/278/349	135	274	16	11	27%	8%	77	-0.3	223/286/391	168	267	21	13	25%	7%	88	+0.3
✕Andrew Knizner 2020 · MLB	25	50	47→50	47→40	46	251/303/379	129	282	15	5	18%	6%	93	+0.8	223/294/333	110	269	11	5	21%	7%	79	-0.2	229/296/347	118	278	13	3	22%	6%	83	+0.0
✕Mark Mathias 2019 · AA	24	44→47	42→50	52→50	47	214/290/326	112	282	8	10	26%	8%	76	-0.4	231/294/361	130	292	12	13	24%	7%	85	+0.2	247/323/382	134	321	14	17	26%	9%	99	+0.8
✕J.R. Towles 2009 · MLB	25	46→53	47→50	44→50	46	233/307/373	140	269	15	10	20%	6%	94	+0.9	218/299/349	131	257	13	8	20%	7%	86	+0.3	201/284/313	112	235	10	6	18%	7%	71	-0.3
✕Haydn McGeary 2024 · AA	24	48	47→50	46→45	48	234/313/369	135	313	15	7	28%	9%	95	+0.9	204/272/316	112	311	13	8	36%	8%	67	-1.1	171/234/291	120	258	16	8	39%	7%	47	-1.7
✕Joey Ortiz 2022 · AA	24	45→55	43→50	54→50	44	219/284/336	117	290	10	11	27%	7%	76	-0.4	249/305/388	139	305	12	10	21%	7%	95	+1.0	253/316/399	146	307	12	11	21%	7%	100	+1.1
✕Andre Lipcius 2022 · AA	24	44→51	44→45	48→45	46	217/277/336	119	277	11	7	25%	8%	73	-0.6	237/308/366	129	294	13	8	23%	9%	92	+0.7	239/311/369	131	295	15	7	23%	9%	91	+0.6
✕Corey Joyce 2023 · AAA	24	44	46→40	49→50	49	214/312/344	129	290	14	11	29%	10%	89	+0.5	212/309/310	98	304	8	14	30%	10%	80	-0.1	207/293/299	92	288	9	15	29%	9%	68	-0.6
✕German Duran 2009 · MLB	24	48→51	48→50	48→45	43	240/284/387	146	278	15	8	20%	5%	87	+0.4	214/258/308	94	255	9	6	19%	5%	59	-1.7	199/240/262	63	237	6	4	18%	4%	40	-1.3
✕Chris Nelson 2010 · AA	24	46→56	45→50	52→50	45	228/285/362	134	282	12	13	23%	7%	82	-0.0	250/294/382	132	302	13	9	21%	5%	90	+0.6	260/302/395	135	314	13	7	21%	5%	95	+0.7
✕Brendan Rodgers 2021 · MLB	24	47→55	47→50	49→45	41	236/286/369	133	296	14	8	25%	5%	84	+0.2	256/308/397	141	304	15	2	20%	6%	99	+1.2	257/312/394	138	302	14	0	19%	6%	101	+1.0
✕Aaron Luna 2011 · AAA	24	44→46	49→50	50→45	50	221/334/375	154	272	16	7	24%	9%	105	+1.7	234/324/374	140	297	16	9	25%	8%	101	+1.4	233/321/367	134	297	17	8	26%	7%	97	+0.6
✕Raudy Read 2018 · AA	24	45→46	46→55	46→45	42	226/265/360	133	264	14	5	20%	4%	74	-0.5	230/265/382	152	273	18	4	23%	4%	80	-0.2	233/285/428	196	272	25	1	25%	6%	97	+0.5
✕Jacob Amaya 2023 · AAA	24	44→47	46→45	49→45	49	219/291/343	123	276	14	6	25%	9%	80	-0.1	215/282/323	108	282	11	8	26%	8%	72	-0.7	203/270/297	94	269	9	8	27%	8%	60	-1.1
✕Andrew Young 2018 · A	24	45→46	49→55	50→40	40	226/292/373	147	297	16	7	29%	5%	88	+0.5	226/303/391	165	279	20	5	26%	6%	97	+1.1	219/301/403	184	282	23	3	30%	6%	96	+0.8
✕Nick Fortes 2022 · MLB	25	44→45	45	47→45	46	220/285/339	119	256	13	7	20%	6%	77	-0.3	226/286/350	124	256	14	8	18%	6%	80	-0.1	234/282/341	108	262	10	1	15%	4%	77	-0.2
✕Luis Santana 2023 · A	24	44	46→45	48→50	42	221/284/348	127	282	13	11	26%	6%	79	-0.2	210/265/327	117	265	13	7	25%	5%	67	-1.1	194/247/303	110	239	13	5	25%	5%	52	-1.2
✕Alan Espinoza 2015 · AAA	24	49	44→50	49→45	44	241/293/357	116	294	12	9	22%	6%	84	+0.1	232/280/379	147	274	17	6	22%	5%	84	+0.2	250/290/391	141	287	16	3	19%	4%	88	+0.2

Adrian Pinto

Career Stats + Projections

How the minor-league lines were translated

Career Comps

Career Path Comps