Corey Joyce
SS Frisco RoughRiders| Year | Age | Lvl / Team | PA | AVG/OBP/SLG | HR | SB | wRC+ | WAR | MLE AVG/OBP/SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 25 | AAA/AA/ADET | 99 | .221/.394/.286 | 1 | 6 | 61 | — | .205/.333/.264 |
| 2025 | 26 | AA/INTL2 orgs | 433 | .273/.388/.362 | 3 | 16 | 87 | — | .242/.332/.312 |
| 2026 | 27 | AATEX | 342 | .248/.329/.409 | 13 | 11 | 58 | — | .198/.262/.316 |
| 2027PROJMLE | 28 | MLBTEX | 3 | .221/.296/.325 | 0 | 0 | 76 | 0.0 | |
| 2028PROJ23% MLB | 29 | MLBTEX | 48 | .220/.295/.324 | 1 | 1 | 75 | 0.0 |
Tools · ContractCON 50 / POW 30
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built
All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | MLB% | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | SO | HBP | SB | CS | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | ISO | BABIP | K% | BB% | wOBA | wRC+ | BAT | RUN | FLD | POS | REP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2019 | 20 | A | West Michigan Whitecaps | — | 55 | 50 | 9 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 15 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 180 | 255 | 220 | 475 | 40 | 257 | 27 | 7 | 226 | 8 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 22 | AA | Erie SeaWolves | — | 36 | 35 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 15 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 171 | 194 | 171 | 366 | 300 | 42 | 0 | 171 | -22 | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| 2021 | 22 | A+ | West Michigan Whitecaps | — | 107 | 87 | 16 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 15 | 27 | 3 | 5 | 0 | 184 | 318 | 253 | 571 | 69 | 254 | 25 | 14 | 275 | 32 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 22 | A | Lakeland Flying Tigers | — | 21 | 18 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 278 | 381 | 444 | 825 | 167 | 308 | 19 | 10 | 373 | 84 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 23 | AAA | Toledo Mud Hens | — | 22 | 16 | 10 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 625 | 727 | 1.125 | 1.852 | 500 | 727 | 14 | 23 | 745 | 314 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 23 | AA | Erie SeaWolves | — | 65 | 56 | 14 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 17 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 250 | 354 | 321 | 675 | 71 | 359 | 26 | 6 | 317 | 66 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 23 | A+ | West Michigan Whitecaps | — | 268 | 208 | 50 | 9 | 2 | 9 | 47 | 52 | 10 | 6 | 5 | 240 | 404 | 433 | 836 | 192 | 273 | 19 | 18 | 376 | 91 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 24 | AAA | Toledo Mud Hens | — | 206 | 168 | 45 | 12 | 3 | 4 | 30 | 56 | 6 | 8 | 2 | 268 | 397 | 446 | 843 | 179 | 373 | 27 | 15 | 376 | 95 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 24 | AA | Erie SeaWolves | — | 147 | 116 | 17 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 23 | 38 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 147 | 312 | 198 | 511 | 52 | 200 | 26 | 16 | 255 | 22 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 25 | AAA | Toledo Mud Hens | — | 28 | 22 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 7 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 227 | 393 | 318 | 711 | 91 | 333 | 25 | 21 | 338 | 62 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 25 | AA | Erie SeaWolves | — | 36 | 29 | 10 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 9 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 345 | 472 | 448 | 920 | 103 | 474 | 25 | 11 | 423 | 128 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 25 | A | Lakeland Flying Tigers | — | 35 | 26 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 9 | 9 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 77 | 314 | 77 | 391 | 118 | 26 | 26 | 231 | -8 | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| 2025 | 26 | AA | Knoxville Smokies | — | 389 | 323 | 88 | 16 | 1 | 2 | 56 | 81 | 8 | 15 | 2 | 272 | 391 | 347 | 737 | 74 | 358 | 21 | 14 | 344 | 81 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 26 | INTL | Aguilas Cibaenas | — | 44 | 39 | 11 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 6 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 282 | 364 | 487 | 851 | 205 | 312 | 14 | 5 | 378 | 142 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 27 | AA | Frisco RoughRiders | — | 342 | 298 | 74 | 9 | 0 | 13 | 33 | 78 | 5 | 11 | 2 | 248 | 329 | 409 | 739 | 161 | 293 | 23 | 10 | 329 | 58 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2019 | 20 | A MLE | West Michigan Whitecaps | — | 55 | 51 | 8 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 19 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 157 | 218 | 196 | 414 | 39 | 237 | 35 | 5 | 180 | 8 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 22 | AA MLE | Erie SeaWolves | — | 36 | 35 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 18 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 143 | 167 | 143 | 310 | 281 | 50 | 0 | 136 | -22 | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| 2021 | 22 | A+ MLE | West Michigan Whitecaps | — | 107 | 94 | 14 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 10 | 38 | 3 | 5 | 0 | 149 | 252 | 213 | 465 | 64 | 233 | 36 | 9 | 215 | 32 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 22 | A MLE | Lakeland Flying Tigers | — | 21 | 19 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 211 | 286 | 368 | 654 | 158 | 276 | 29 | 5 | 293 | 84 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 23 | AAA MLE | Toledo Mud Hens | — | 22 | 17 | 10 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 588 | 682 | 1.059 | 1.741 | 471 | 646 | 18 | 18 | 632 | 314 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 23 | AA MLE | Erie SeaWolves | — | 65 | 57 | 13 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 21 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 228 | 323 | 298 | 621 | 70 | 336 | 32 | 5 | 266 | 66 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 23 | A+ MLE | West Michigan Whitecaps | — | 268 | 223 | 44 | 8 | 1 | 9 | 32 | 69 | 10 | 6 | 5 | 197 | 325 | 363 | 688 | 166 | 231 | 26 | 12 | 303 | 91 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 24 | AAA MLE | Toledo Mud Hens | — | 206 | 177 | 41 | 9 | 3 | 3 | 21 | 68 | 6 | 8 | 2 | 232 | 333 | 367 | 701 | 136 | 336 | 33 | 10 | 308 | 95 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 24 | AA MLE | Erie SeaWolves | — | 147 | 124 | 16 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 15 | 49 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 129 | 250 | 177 | 427 | 48 | 182 | 33 | 10 | 200 | 22 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 25 | AAA MLE | Toledo Mud Hens | — | 28 | 24 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 8 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 208 | 321 | 292 | 613 | 83 | 277 | 29 | 14 | 260 | 62 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 25 | AA MLE | Erie SeaWolves | — | 36 | 30 | 10 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 11 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 333 | 444 | 433 | 878 | 100 | 453 | 31 | 8 | 358 | 128 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 25 | A MLE | Lakeland Flying Tigers | — | 35 | 29 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 12 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 69 | 229 | 69 | 298 | 106 | 34 | 17 | 157 | -8 | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| 2025 | 26 | AA MLE | Knoxville Smokies | — | 389 | 343 | 83 | 16 | 1 | 2 | 38 | 100 | 8 | 15 | 2 | 242 | 332 | 312 | 644 | 70 | 333 | 26 | 10 | 288 | 81 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 27 | AA MLE | Frisco RoughRiders | — | 342 | 313 | 62 | 7 | 0 | 10 | 22 | 95 | 5 | 11 | 2 | 198 | 262 | 316 | 578 | 118 | 245 | 28 | 6 | 254 | 58 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 20 | A MLE | West Michigan Whitecaps | — | 55 | 51 | 8 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 19 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 157 | 218 | 196 | 414 | 39 | 250 | 35 | 5 | 180 | 8 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 20 | A RAW | West Michigan Whitecaps | — | 55 | 50 | 9 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 15 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 180 | 255 | 220 | 475 | 40 | 257 | 27 | 7 | 226 | 8 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 22 | A+ MLE | 3 teams | — | 164 | 148 | 24 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 11 | 61 | 5 | 8 | 0 | 162 | 244 | 223 | 467 | 61 | 259 | 37 | 7 | 208 | 27 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 22 | A+ RAW | 3 teams | — | 164 | 140 | 27 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 17 | 46 | 5 | 8 | 0 | 193 | 299 | 257 | 556 | 64 | 272 | 28 | 10 | 265 | 27 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 23 | A+ MLE | 3 teams | — | 355 | 297 | 65 | 11 | 2 | 10 | 39 | 94 | 16 | 8 | 5 | 219 | 341 | 370 | 711 | 152 | 281 | 26 | 11 | 317 | 100 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 23 | A+ RAW | 3 teams | — | 355 | 280 | 74 | 13 | 3 | 11 | 56 | 72 | 16 | 8 | 5 | 264 | 415 | 450 | 865 | 186 | 315 | 20 | 16 | 388 | 100 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 24 | AAA MLE | 2 teams | — | 353 | 301 | 56 | 11 | 3 | 4 | 36 | 117 | 11 | 10 | 3 | 186 | 296 | 282 | 578 | 96 | 281 | 33 | 10 | 263 | 64 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 24 | AAA RAW | 2 teams | — | 353 | 284 | 62 | 15 | 3 | 5 | 53 | 94 | 11 | 10 | 3 | 218 | 362 | 345 | 707 | 127 | 300 | 27 | 15 | 325 | 64 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 25 | AA MLE | 3 teams | — | 99 | 84 | 16 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 12 | 31 | 3 | 6 | 0 | 190 | 313 | 250 | 563 | 60 | 288 | 31 | 12 | 259 | 62 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 25 | AA RAW | 3 teams | — | 99 | 77 | 17 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 19 | 25 | 3 | 6 | 0 | 221 | 394 | 286 | 680 | 65 | 314 | 25 | 19 | 331 | 62 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 26 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 433 | 380 | 92 | 18 | 1 | 2 | 42 | 111 | 11 | 16 | 3 | 242 | 335 | 311 | 645 | 68 | 337 | 26 | 10 | 288 | 81 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 26 | AA RAW | 2 teams | — | 433 | 362 | 99 | 21 | 1 | 3 | 58 | 87 | 11 | 16 | 3 | 273 | 388 | 362 | 750 | 88 | 353 | 20 | 13 | 347 | 81 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 27 | AA MLE | Frisco RoughRiders | — | 342 | 313 | 62 | 7 | 0 | 10 | 22 | 95 | 5 | 11 | 2 | 198 | 262 | 316 | 578 | 118 | 249 | 28 | 6 | 254 | 58 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 27 | AA RAW | Frisco RoughRiders | — | 342 | 298 | 74 | 9 | 0 | 13 | 33 | 78 | 5 | 11 | 2 | 248 | 329 | 409 | 739 | 161 | 293 | 23 | 10 | 329 | 58 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 20 | A MLE | West Michigan Whitecaps | — | 55 | 51 | 8 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 19 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 157 | 218 | 196 | 414 | 39 | 237 | 35 | 5 | 180 | 8 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 22 | A+ MLE | 3 teams | — | 164 | 147 | 24 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 11 | 61 | 5 | 8 | 0 | 163 | 244 | 224 | 468 | 61 | 249 | 37 | 7 | 208 | 27 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 23 | A+ MLE | 3 teams | — | 355 | 297 | 65 | 11 | 2 | 10 | 39 | 94 | 16 | 8 | 5 | 219 | 341 | 370 | 711 | 152 | 276 | 26 | 11 | 317 | 100 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 24 | AAA MLE | 2 teams | — | 353 | 303 | 56 | 11 | 3 | 4 | 36 | 117 | 11 | 10 | 3 | 185 | 296 | 281 | 577 | 96 | 272 | 33 | 10 | 263 | 64 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 25 | AA MLE | 3 teams | — | 99 | 84 | 16 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 12 | 31 | 3 | 6 | 0 | 190 | 313 | 250 | 563 | 60 | 281 | 31 | 12 | 259 | 62 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 26 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 433 | 377 | 92 | 18 | 1 | 2 | 42 | 111 | 11 | 16 | 3 | 244 | 335 | 313 | 648 | 69 | 333 | 26 | 10 | 288 | 81 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 27 | AA MLE | Frisco RoughRiders | — | 342 | 312 | 62 | 7 | 0 | 10 | 22 | 95 | 5 | 11 | 2 | 199 | 262 | 317 | 579 | 119 | 245 | 28 | 6 | 254 | 58 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2024 | 25 | AA MLE | 3 teams | — | 99 | 84 | 16 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 12 | 31 | 3 | 6 | 0 | 190 | 313 | 250 | 563 | 60 | 281 | 31 | 12 | 259 | 62 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 26 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 433 | 377 | 92 | 18 | 1 | 2 | 42 | 111 | 11 | 16 | 3 | 244 | 335 | 313 | 648 | 69 | 333 | 26 | 10 | 288 | 81 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 27 | AA MLE | Frisco RoughRiders | — | 342 | 312 | 62 | 7 | 0 | 10 | 22 | 95 | 5 | 11 | 2 | 199 | 262 | 317 | 579 | 119 | 245 | 28 | 6 | 254 | 58 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ 2027 season | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 28 | MLB MLE | TEX | 2% | 380 | 340 | 75 | 12 | 1 | 7 | 31 | 103 | 6 | 10 | 2 | 220 | 295 | 321 | 617 | 102 | 291 | 27 | 8 | 281 | 76 | -11 | +1 | +0 | +4 | +8 | 0.2 |
| ▸ 2027 — real world (MLB) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 28 | MLB CTX | TEX | 2% | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 221 | 296 | 325 | 622 | 105 | 290 | 33 | 0 | 283 | 76 | -0 | +0 | +0 | +0 | +0 | 0.0 |
| ▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2028 | 29 | MLB MLE | TEX | 23% | 212 | 190 | 42 | 7 | 0 | 4 | 17 | 57 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 219 | 294 | 320 | 614 | 101 | 290 | 27 | 8 | 280 | 75 | -6 | +0 | -1 | +2 | +5 | -0.0 |
| 2028 | 29 | MLB CTX | TEX | 23% | 48 | 43 | 10 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 13 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 220 | 295 | 324 | 618 | 104 | 289 | 27 | 8 | 281 | 75 | -1 | +0 | -0 | +1 | +1 | 0.0 |
| ▸ Career Totals | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | A+C | — | 48 | 43 | 10 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 13 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 233 | 312 | 349 | 661 | 116 | 310 | 27 | 8 | 281 | 70 | -1 | +0 | -0 | +1 | +1 | 0.0 | |
| / 162G | — | A+C | — | 650 | 582 | 136 | 27 | 0 | 14 | 54 | 176 | 14 | 14 | 0 | 234 | 314 | 352 | 666 | 119 | 311 | 27 | 8 | 281 | 70 | -19 | +3 | -4 | +7 | +14 | 0.0 | |
| Career | — | MLE | — | 2168 | 1903 | 395 | 66 | 6 | 36 | 195 | 627 | 57 | 67 | 15 | 208 | 300 | 305 | 606 | 98 | 287 | 29 | 9 | 272 | 70 | -11 | +1 | -1 | +4 | +8 | 0.1 | |
| / 162G | — | MLE | — | 650 | 571 | 119 | 20 | 2 | 11 | 58 | 188 | 17 | 20 | 4 | 208 | 300 | 308 | 609 | 100 | 288 | 29 | 9 | 272 | 70 | -19 | +1 | -2 | +7 | +14 | 0.1 | |
How the minor-league lines were translated
One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.
2026 AAFrisco RoughRiders · 342 PAwOBA .321 → .254 (−66)K% 22.8% → 27.8%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 22.81% | ÷1.000 | ×1.220 | — | — | 27.82% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 9.65% | ÷1.000 | ×0.700 | — | ×0.968 | 6.54% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.46% | — | ×0.870 | — | ×0.968 | 1.23% |
| Singles /BIP | 23.64% | ÷1.000 | ×0.920 | ×0.963 | ×0.968 | 20.27% |
| Doubles /BIP | 4.09% | ÷1.000 | ×0.840 | ×0.963 | ×0.968 | 3.20% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.000 | ×0.940 | ×0.963 | ×0.968 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 5.91% | ÷1.000 | ×0.800 | — | ×0.968 | 4.58% |
Factors used: league row TL. Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 28 vs a level average of 24.8 → −3.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.963.
Result: wOBA .321 → .254; ISO .161 → .125; BABIP .293 → .245. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2025 AAKnoxville Smokies · 389 PAwOBA .336 → .288 (−48)K% 20.8% → 25.6%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 20.82% | ÷0.994 | ×1.220 | — | — | 25.56% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 14.40% | ÷0.988 | ×0.680 | — | ×0.978 | 9.69% |
| HBP% /PA | 2.06% | — | ×0.840 | — | ×0.978 | 1.69% |
| Singles /BIP | 28.51% | ÷0.996 | ×0.920 | ×1.016 | ×0.978 | 26.18% |
| Doubles /BIP | 6.61% | ÷0.910 | ×0.910 | ×1.016 | ×0.978 | 6.57% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.41% | ÷1.150 | ×0.880 | ×1.016 | ×0.978 | 0.31% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.83% | ÷0.911 | ×0.800 | — | ×0.978 | 0.71% |
Factors used: league row SL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 82, 1B 99, 2B 82, 3B 130, K 99, BB 98 — applied at half strength. Age: age 27 vs a level average of 24.8 → −2.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.016.
Result: wOBA .336 → .288; ISO .074 → .071; BABIP .358 → .333. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2024 AAErie SeaWolves · 36 PAwOBA .412 → .358 (−54)K% 25.0% → 30.2%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 25.00% | ÷1.009 | ×1.220 | — | — | 30.23% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 11.11% | ÷1.086 | ×0.700 | — | ×0.988 | 7.08% |
| HBP% /PA | 8.33% | — | ×0.850 | — | ×0.988 | 7.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 45.00% | ÷0.992 | ×0.970 | — | ×0.988 | 43.47% |
| Doubles /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.036 | ×0.860 | — | ×0.988 | 0.00% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.945 | ×0.950 | — | ×0.988 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 5.00% | ÷0.941 | ×0.780 | — | ×0.988 | 4.09% |
Factors used: league row EL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 88, 1B 98, 2B 107, 3B 89, K 102, BB 117 — applied at half strength. Age: age 26 vs a level average of 24.8 → −1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.2 yr older than average).
Result: wOBA .412 → .358; ISO .103 → .085; BABIP .474 → .453. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2024 ALakeland Flying Tigers · 35 PAwOBA .228 → .157 (−70)K% 25.7% → 34.0%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 25.71% | ÷1.028 | ×1.360 | — | — | 34.02% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 25.71% | ÷1.061 | ×0.690 | — | ×0.960 | 16.05% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.780 | — | ×0.960 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 11.76% | ÷0.980 | ×0.920 | — | ×0.960 | 10.61% |
| Doubles /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.351 | ×0.830 | — | ×0.960 | 0.00% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.106 | ×0.910 | — | ×0.960 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.099 | ×0.800 | — | ×0.960 | 0.00% |
Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 120, 1B 96, 2B 170, 3B 121, K 106, BB 112 — applied at half strength. Age: age 26 vs a level average of 22.0 → −4.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (4.0 yr older than average).
Result: wOBA .228 → .157; ISO .000 → .000; BABIP .118 → .106. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2024 AAAToledo Mud Hens · 28 PAwOBA .331 → .260 (−71)K% 25.0% → 29.4%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 25.00% | ÷1.022 | ×1.200 | — | — | 29.37% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 21.43% | ÷1.016 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.018 | 14.82% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×1.018 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 20.00% | ÷1.117 | ×0.930 | — | ×1.018 | 16.95% |
| Doubles /BIP | 13.33% | ÷1.049 | ×0.830 | — | ×1.018 | 10.74% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.070 | ×0.970 | — | ×1.018 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.792 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.018 | 0.00% |
Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 58, 1B 123, 2B 110, 3B 114, K 104, BB 103 — applied at half strength. Age: age 26 vs a level average of 27.2 → +1.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.2 yr younger than average).
Result: wOBA .331 → .260; ISO .091 → .076; BABIP .333 → .277. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2023 AAAToledo Mud Hens · 206 PAwOBA .370 → .308 (−62)K% 27.2% → 32.8%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 27.18% | ÷0.995 | ×1.200 | — | — | 32.78% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 14.56% | ÷1.006 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.033 | 10.32% |
| HBP% /PA | 2.91% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×1.033 | 2.83% |
| Singles /BIP | 23.21% | ÷0.965 | ×0.930 | ×0.996 | ×1.033 | 23.02% |
| Doubles /BIP | 10.71% | ÷1.156 | ×0.830 | ×0.996 | ×1.033 | 7.92% |
| Triples /BIP | 2.68% | ÷1.150 | ×0.970 | ×0.996 | ×1.033 | 2.32% |
| Home runs /BIP | 3.57% | ÷0.901 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.033 | 2.87% |
Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 80, 1B 93, 2B 131, 3B 130, K 99, BB 101 — applied at half strength. Age: age 25 vs a level average of 27.2 → +3.3% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.996.
Result: wOBA .370 → .308; ISO .179 → .140; BABIP .373 → .336. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2023 AAErie SeaWolves · 147 PAwOBA .255 → .200 (−54)K% 25.9% → 33.4%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 25.85% | ÷0.944 | ×1.220 | — | — | 33.43% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 15.65% | ÷1.063 | ×0.700 | — | ×0.998 | 10.29% |
| HBP% /PA | 3.40% | — | ×0.850 | — | ×0.998 | 2.89% |
| Singles /BIP | 16.67% | ÷1.002 | ×0.970 | ×0.950 | ×0.998 | 15.30% |
| Doubles /BIP | 3.85% | ÷0.924 | ×0.860 | ×0.950 | ×0.998 | 3.40% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.145 | ×0.950 | ×0.950 | ×0.998 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 1.28% | ÷1.055 | ×0.780 | — | ×0.998 | 0.95% |
Factors used: league row EL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 111, 1B 100, 2B 85, 3B 129, K 89, BB 113 — applied at half strength. Age: age 25 vs a level average of 24.8 → −0.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.
Result: wOBA .255 → .200; ISO .052 → .042; BABIP .200 → .182. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2022 A+West Michigan Whitecaps · 268 PAwOBA .371 → .303 (−69)K% 19.4% → 25.8%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 19.40% | ÷0.956 | ×1.270 | — | — | 25.76% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 17.54% | ÷1.024 | ×0.710 | — | ×0.988 | 12.01% |
| HBP% /PA | 3.73% | — | ×0.790 | — | ×0.988 | 2.91% |
| Singles /BIP | 19.23% | ÷1.031 | ×0.920 | ×0.964 | ×0.988 | 16.35% |
| Doubles /BIP | 5.77% | ÷0.876 | ×0.810 | ×0.964 | ×0.988 | 5.09% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.28% | ÷1.150 | ×0.850 | ×0.964 | ×0.988 | 0.90% |
| Home runs /BIP | 5.77% | ÷0.847 | ×0.800 | — | ×0.988 | 5.38% |
Factors used: league row Midwest League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 69, 1B 106, 2B 75, 3B 130, K 91, BB 105 — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 22.8 → −1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.964.
Result: wOBA .371 → .303; ISO .192 → .176; BABIP .273 → .231. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
Not traceable per stint: some stints lack the counting stats the component translation needs. Level-wide factors that apply instead — .