Corey Joyce — OGILVIE

Corey JoyceSS Frisco RoughRiders

Age 27 R/R 6'0" / 190 lbs AA K +3% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2034 peak 0.7 · 2026

wRC+†88

AVG/OBP/SLG.208 / .303 / .294

PA250

HR3

SB6

K%29

BB%10

MLB%2%

Scouting · now → future

HIT

50→50

PWR

30→30

SPD

50→50

EYE

56↗60

trajectory · 10 yrs

0.4peak

2027

Contract

ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2029

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2034

First FA Year 2035

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2029	Arb-1	$0.8M	+0.2	$0.9M	+$0.0M
2030	Arb-2	$0.9M	+0.1	$0.5M	+$0.0M (cut)
2031	Arb-3	$0.9M	—	—	—
2032	Ext / FA-deal	$0.2M	—	—	—
2033	Ext / FA-deal	$0.4M	—	—	—
2034	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$2M		$-4M	-$6M

Why some years run red
On long-term deals the salary is locked in regardless of how the player ages. Late years are red whenever projected production drops below the AAV — that's expected, not a sign the deal is bad. The honest scorecard is the Net Surplus over the whole contract, not any single year.

Career Projections (MLE)

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2019	20	A	West Michigan Whitecaps	55	51	8	2	0	0	3	18	1	0	0	.157	.218	.196	.414	.039	.242	33	5	.181	-3	-6	+0	+0	+1	+2	-0.4
2021	22	A+	3 teams	164	148	23	3	0	2	11	62	5	8	0	.155	.238	.216	.454	.061	.250	38	7	.207	17	-15	+2	+0	+2	+5	-0.8
2022	23	A+	3 teams	355	297	66	12	2	11	39	95	16	8	5	.222	.344	.387	.731	.165	.284	27	11	.318	101	+1	-0	+0	+4	+10	1.4
2023	24	AAA	2 teams	353	301	54	12	2	4	36	118	11	10	3	.179	.290	.272	.563	.093	.272	33	10	.261	58	-17	+1	+0	+4	+10	-0.2
2024	25	AA	3 teams	99	83	16	2	0	1	13	32	3	6	0	.193	.323	.253	.576	.060	.300	32	13	.265	61	-4	+1	+0	+1	+3	0.1
2025	26	AA	2 teams	433	379	91	18	0	2	43	118	11	16	3	.240	.335	.303	.638	.063	.344	27	10	.289	79	-10	+2	+0	+5	+12	0.9
▸ 2026 Season (actual · ROS · total)
2026	27	AA	Frisco RoughRiders	24	23	10	2	0	2	1	5	0	0	1	.435	.458	.783	1.241	.348	.500	21	4	.503	243	+4	-0	+0	+0	+1	0.5
ROS	27	MLB	TEX	226	197	42	8	1	3	22	66	5	6	1	.213	.308	.310	.618	.096	.298	29	10	.279	72	-7	+1	+0	+2	+6	0.2
TOT	27	MLB	TEX	250	220	52	10	1	5	23	71	5	6	2	.236	.323	.359	.682	.123	.324	28	9	.301	88	-3	+0	+0	+3	+7	0.7
▸ 2027+ Projections — Projections at projected PA · Park-neutral MLB equivalent · Marcel + aging curve
2027	28	MLB 9%	TEX	314	274	58	11	1	4	31	90	6	7	1	.212	.305	.303	.608	.091	.297	29	10	.283	74	-9	+1	-1	+3	+9	0.4
2028	29	MLB 19%	TEX	337	295	63	12	1	5	33	96	6	7	1	.214	.305	.312	.617	.098	.296	28	10	.284	75	-9	+1	-1	+4	+10	0.3
2029	30	MLB 29%	TEX	351	308	66	13	1	5	34	101	6	7	1	.214	.305	.312	.616	.097	.294	29	10	.282	74	-10	+1	-2	+4	+10	0.2
2030	31	MLB 40%	TEX	345	302	63	12	1	5	34	100	6	5	0	.209	.301	.305	.606	.096	.293	29	10	.280	72	-11	+1	-3	+4	+10	0.1
2031	32	MLB 54%	TEX	332	291	60	12	1	4	32	98	6	4	0	.206	.298	.296	.593	.089	.291	30	10	.275	69	-12	+1	-4	+4	+9	-0.1
2032	33	MLB 71%	TEX	306	268	55	10	1	4	30	92	5	3	0	.205	.297	.295	.592	.090	.290	30	10	.270	65	-12	+1	-4	+3	+9	-0.4
2033	34	MLB 89%	TEX	265	233	47	9	1	3	25	82	5	2	0	.202	.293	.288	.580	.086	.288	31	9	.264	60	-12	+0	-5	+3	+8	-0.6
▸ Career Totals (MLE all levels + projections)
Career	—			3935	3427	712	136	12	53	386	1168	92	89	15	.208	.305	.301	.606	.093	.296	30	10	.276	70	-135	+12	-20	+42	+111	1.1
/ 162G	—			650	566	117	22	2	9	64	193	15	15	2	.207	.304	.300	.604	.094	.293	30	10	.276	70	-22	+2	-3	+7	+18	0.2

Historical Stats — Raw (Per Stint)

Actual MLB + MiLB stats as they happened, one row per stint at each level. Use this to see what really got recorded; the table above shows MLB-equivalent translations + projections.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2019	20	A	West Michigan Whitecaps	55	50	9	2	0	0	4	15	1	0	0	.180	.255	.220	.475	.040	.257	27	7	.226	31	-4	+0	—	—	+2	-0.3
2021	22	AA	Erie SeaWolves	36	35	6	0	0	0	0	15	1	1	0	.171	.194	.171	.366	.000	.300	42	0	.171	-11	-5	+0	—	—	+1	-0.3
2021	22	A+	West Michigan Whitecaps	107	87	16	3	0	1	15	27	3	5	0	.184	.318	.253	.571	.069	.254	25	14	.275	69	-4	+1	—	—	+3	0.0
2021	22	A	Lakeland Flying Tigers	21	18	5	0	0	1	2	4	1	2	0	.278	.381	.444	.825	.167	.308	19	10	.373	144	+1	+0	—	—	+1	0.2
2022	23	AAA	Toledo Mud Hens	22	16	10	2	0	2	5	3	1	1	0	.625	.727	1.125	1.852	.500	.727	14	23	.745	428	+8	+0	—	—	+1	0.9
2022	23	AA	Erie SeaWolves	65	56	14	2	1	0	4	17	5	1	0	.250	.354	.321	.675	.071	.359	26	6	.317	101	+0	+0	—	—	+2	0.2
2022	23	A+	West Michigan Whitecaps	268	208	50	9	2	9	47	52	10	6	5	.240	.404	.433	.836	.192	.273	19	18	.376	146	+14	-1	—	—	+8	2.1
2023	24	AAA	Toledo Mud Hens	206	168	45	12	3	4	30	56	6	8	2	.268	.397	.446	.843	.179	.373	27	15	.376	146	+11	+1	—	—	+6	1.8
2023	24	AA	Erie SeaWolves	147	116	17	3	0	1	23	38	5	2	1	.147	.312	.198	.511	.052	.200	26	16	.255	53	-8	+0	—	—	+4	-0.4
2024	25	AAA	Toledo Mud Hens	28	22	5	2	0	0	6	7	0	2	0	.227	.393	.318	.711	.091	.333	25	21	.338	117	+1	+0	—	—	+1	0.2
2024	25	AA	Erie SeaWolves	36	29	10	0	0	1	4	9	3	2	0	.345	.472	.448	.920	.103	.474	25	11	.423	182	+3	+0	—	—	+1	0.5
2024	25	A	Lakeland Flying Tigers	35	26	2	0	0	0	9	9	0	2	0	.077	.314	.077	.391	.000	.118	26	26	.231	35	-3	+0	—	—	+1	-0.1
2025	26	AA	Knoxville Smokies	389	323	88	16	1	2	56	81	8	15	2	.272	.391	.347	.737	.074	.358	21	14	.344	121	+9	+2	—	—	+11	2.3
2025	26	INTL	Aguilas Cibaenas	44	39	11	5	0	1	2	6	3	1	1	.282	.364	.487	.851	.205	.312	14	5	.378	147	+2	-0	—	—	+1	0.3

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Corey Joyce (OGILVIE)	27	50	30	50	60	.208/.303/.294	.086	.298	3	6	29%	10%	72	-0.1	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Jack Dunn 2023 · AAA	26	49→48	38→40	46→55	47	.228/.296/.304	.075	.304	5	12	25%	8%	69	-0.4	.220/.310/.305	.085	.284	8	21	23%	10%	76	+0.1	.211/.316/.295	.084	.262	9	26	21%	11%	75	-0.0
✕Daniel Figueroa 2010 · AA	27	52→51	36→30	54→55	48	.238/.322/.301	.063	.329	3	21	26%	9%	80	+0.4	.227/.314/.294	.067	.301	3	15	23%	9%	76	+0.0	.200/.298/.239	.039	.264	0	14	21%	9%	51	-0.9
✕Derrik Gibson 2017 · AAA	27	52→56	37→40	49→55	48	.245/.306/.319	.074	.307	4	11	21%	7%	77	+0.1	.213/.269/.309	.096	.283	6	12	25%	7%	59	-1.1	.188/.242/.295	.107	.255	6	11	27%	6%	42	-1.1
✕Jose Duarte 2012 · AAA	27	48→56	39→40	49→55	49	.227/.290/.318	.091	.285	6	16	22%	8%	70	-0.3	.225/.293/.317	.092	.280	7	12	21%	9%	72	-0.2	.213/.288/.286	.073	.255	8	8	18%	9%	58	-0.5
✕Josh Labandeira 2006 · AAA	27	51→52	38→40	45	49	.239/.309/.325	.086	.304	5	12	22%	8%	80	+0.4	.240/.297/.314	.074	.296	4	9	19%	6%	72	-0.2	.236/.292/.299	.063	.293	4	6	19%	6%	63	-0.4
✕Cutter Dykstra 2015 · AA	26	50→57	40	50→55	46	.237/.301/.328	.092	.312	7	14	25%	8%	78	+0.2	.226/.289/.308	.082	.322	7	9	29%	8%	67	-0.5	.209/.276/.272	.063	.300	7	8	30%	8%	50	-1.4
✕Matt Williams 2017 · AAA	27	47→48	37→40	48→50	50	.219/.288/.292	.073	.281	4	14	23%	8%	63	-0.9	.217/.272/.317	.100	.259	8	15	19%	7%	63	-0.9	.204/.251/.308	.104	.227	10	17	15%	5%	46	-1.0
✕Bryson Brigman 2022 · AAA	27	50→59	40	47→50	48	.240/.298/.335	.095	.295	6	10	20%	7%	78	+0.2	.235/.285/.333	.098	.298	8	11	23%	6%	72	-0.2	.239/.295/.315	.076	.296	6	12	20%	6%	68	-0.2
✕Andy Simunic 2013 · AA	27	50→57	37→30	53→50	44	.235/.288/.304	.069	.313	5	13	25%	6%	66	-0.6	.237/.285/.299	.062	.315	4	15	24%	6%	63	-0.9	.238/.286/.271	.034	.321	2	18	25%	6%	52	-0.4
✕Chris Gutierrez 2011 · AAA	27	53→59	36→40	46→45	49	.240/.316/.312	.072	.333	3	8	26%	9%	79	+0.3	.223/.299/.295	.072	.298	3	7	24%	9%	68	-0.5	.210/.286/.281	.071	.272	3	4	22%	8%	57	-0.9
✕Christian Herrera 2009 · AAA	27	49	39→40	48→45	44	.234/.286/.319	.085	.298	6	9	23%	6%	68	-0.5	.230/.279/.317	.087	.298	6	8	24%	5%	65	-0.7	.237/.287/.324	.087	.313	6	8	25%	5%	68	-0.2
✕Jordan Cowan 2022 · AA	27	47→49	38→30	52→50	47	.226/.289/.305	.079	.291	6	18	24%	8%	66	-0.6	.215/.282/.302	.087	.288	6	14	26%	7%	63	-0.8	.187/.260/.228	.041	.257	0	8	25%	7%	31	-0.8
✕Peter Bergeron 2005 · MLB	27	47→57	41→40	51→50	50	.221/.302/.316	.095	.312	8	18	30%	10%	76	+0.0	.250/.297/.348	.098	.325	9	12	24%	6%	80	+0.4	.249/.297/.339	.090	.318	7	11	23%	6%	75	+0.0
✕Tyler Smith 2017 · AAA	26	50→53	39→40	47→50	46	.237/.292/.326	.089	.297	7	9	22%	7%	72	-0.2	.208/.263/.296	.088	.273	8	7	25%	6%	53	-1.5	.179/.244/.260	.081	.240	8	4	28%	7%	33	-1.4
✕Jack Reinheimer 2019 · MLB	27	47→51	37→40	48→55	44	.223/.276/.296	.073	.287	5	16	23%	6%	58	-1.2	.210/.264/.294	.084	.279	7	17	26%	6%	53	-1.5	.189/.241/.256	.067	.256	5	19	27%	6%	31	-1.5
✕Levi Michael 2018 · AAA	27	44→54	41→45	52→55	40	.212/.277/.309	.096	.301	8	12	31%	6%	63	-0.9	.230/.293/.347	.117	.318	10	11	29%	5%	79	+0.3	.231/.295/.353	.122	.318	11	11	29%	5%	79	+0.2
✕Tyler Krieger 2021 · AAA	27	48→57	41→40	50	43	.233/.284/.332	.099	.299	8	16	24%	6%	71	-0.3	.190/.241/.278	.088	.286	8	10	34%	6%	39	-2.5	.144/.184/.198	.054	.225	5	3	37%	4%	-9	-1.8
✕Isaias Rincon 2006 · AAA	27	49	40→30	49→40	41	.234/.288/.323	.090	.328	8	9	30%	6%	71	-0.3	.242/.277/.322	.080	.311	5	6	23%	4%	65	-0.7	.254/.283/.326	.072	.323	2	2	21%	3%	64	-0.3
✕Shawn Roof 2012 · AAA	27	52	35→30	48→50	42	.242/.292/.303	.060	.315	2	16	23%	5%	66	-0.6	.227/.275/.296	.069	.292	4	16	23%	5%	57	-1.2	.198/.234/.218	.020	.256	0	21	22%	3%	15	-0.9
✕Jonathan Diaz 2013 · AAA	28	46→48	36→30	47→50	52	.216/.296/.280	.064	.268	4	12	20%	9%	64	-0.8	.214/.290/.278	.064	.268	4	12	20%	8%	60	-1.0	.209/.285/.267	.058	.262	2	9	19%	8%	52	-1.1

Contract

Career Projections (MLE) Show advanced cols

Historical Stats — Raw (Per Stint)

Career Path Comps

Career Projections (MLE)