Tim Tawa
LF Arizona Diamondbacks| Year | Age | Lvl / Team | PA | AVG/OBP/SLG | HR | SB | wRC+ | WAR | MLE AVG/OBP/SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 25 | AAA/AAARI | 613 | .279/.351/.519 | 31 | 14 | 85 | — | .230/.285/.391 |
| 2025 | 26 | AAAARI | 78 | .238/.368/.492 | 3 | 2 | 97 | — | .197/.303/.379 |
| 2025 | 26 | MLBARI | 225 | .201/.277/.347 | 7 | 8 | 72 | -0.1 | |
| 2026 | 27 | AAAARI | 88 | .320/.414/.733 | 7 | 2 | 145 | — | .266/.333/.570 |
| 2026 | 27 | MLBARI | 351 | .240/.300/.393 | 11 | 8 | 87 | -0.4 | |
| 2027PROJ | 28 | MLBARI | 352 | .240/.307/.416 | 12 | 9 | 99 | 0.4 | |
| 2028PROJ92% MLB | 29 | MLBARI | 313 | .238/.304/.410 | 11 | 6 | 97 | 0.1 | |
| 2029PROJ92% MLB | 30 | MLBARI | 302 | .234/.300/.401 | 10 | 5 | 93 | -0.1 |
Tools · Recent Form · Splits · ContractCON 35 / POW 50
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built
All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | MLB% | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | SO | HBP | SB | CS | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | ISO | BABIP | K% | BB% | wOBA | wRC+ | BAT | RUN | FLD | POS | REP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2021 | 22 | A | Visalia Rawhide | — | 164 | 140 | 37 | 9 | 2 | 5 | 22 | 36 | 1 | 13 | 0 | 264 | 368 | 464 | 832 | 200 | 320 | 22 | 13 | 368 | 78 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 23 | AA | Amarillo Sod Poodles | — | 246 | 218 | 43 | 7 | 0 | 5 | 25 | 57 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 197 | 286 | 298 | 584 | 101 | 242 | 23 | 10 | 270 | 32 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 23 | A+ | Hillsboro Hops | — | 247 | 213 | 60 | 8 | 1 | 8 | 31 | 36 | 2 | 8 | 4 | 282 | 378 | 441 | 819 | 160 | 306 | 15 | 13 | 367 | 98 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 24 | AA | Amarillo Sod Poodles | — | 497 | 434 | 111 | 21 | 1 | 22 | 55 | 121 | 2 | 11 | 7 | 256 | 342 | 461 | 803 | 205 | 300 | 24 | 11 | 352 | 59 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 25 | AAA | Reno Aces | — | 157 | 138 | 42 | 11 | 1 | 10 | 13 | 32 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 304 | 381 | 616 | 997 | 312 | 327 | 20 | 8 | 425 | 105 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 25 | AA | Amarillo Sod Poodles | — | 456 | 411 | 111 | 22 | 2 | 21 | 40 | 96 | 4 | 11 | 6 | 270 | 341 | 487 | 827 | 217 | 305 | 21 | 9 | 363 | 78 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 26 | MLB | Arizona Diamondbacks | — | 225 | 199 | 40 | 8 | 0 | 7 | 20 | 64 | 1 | 8 | 2 | 201 | 277 | 347 | 624 | 146 | 252 | 28 | 9 | 276 | 72 | -8 | +1 | -0 | +1 | +5 | -0.1 |
| 2025 | 26 | AAA | Reno Aces | — | 78 | 63 | 15 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 11 | 13 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 238 | 368 | 492 | 860 | 254 | 245 | 17 | 14 | 370 | 97 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 27 | MLB | Arizona Diamondbacks | — | 351 | 313 | 75 | 13 | 1 | 11 | 27 | 84 | 0 | 8 | 4 | 240 | 300 | 393 | 693 | 153 | 288 | 24 | 8 | 300 | 87 | -5 | +0 | -1 | -5 | +8 | -0.4 |
| 2026 | 27 | AAA | Reno Aces | — | 88 | 75 | 24 | 6 | 2 | 7 | 11 | 13 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 320 | 414 | 733 | 1.147 | 413 | 304 | 15 | 12 | 478 | 145 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Career Totals (raw MLB only — historical actual) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| MLB Career | — | — | 576 | 512 | 115 | 21 | 1 | 18 | 47 | 148 | 1 | 16 | 6 | 225 | 291 | 375 | 666 | 150 | 275 | 26 | 8 | 291 | 83 | -12 | +1 | -1 | -4 | +12 | -0.4 | ||
| ▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2021 | 22 | A MLE | Visalia Rawhide | — | 164 | 147 | 31 | 7 | 2 | 4 | 15 | 50 | 1 | 13 | 0 | 211 | 288 | 367 | 656 | 156 | 278 | 30 | 9 | 283 | 78 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 23 | AA MLE | Amarillo Sod Poodles | — | 246 | 226 | 38 | 6 | 0 | 4 | 17 | 69 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 168 | 233 | 248 | 480 | 80 | 222 | 28 | 7 | 216 | 32 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 23 | A+ MLE | Hillsboro Hops | — | 247 | 222 | 56 | 6 | 1 | 8 | 22 | 46 | 2 | 8 | 4 | 252 | 325 | 396 | 722 | 144 | 281 | 19 | 9 | 313 | 98 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 24 | AA MLE | Amarillo Sod Poodles | — | 497 | 447 | 87 | 17 | 1 | 11 | 42 | 147 | 2 | 11 | 7 | 195 | 267 | 311 | 578 | 116 | 252 | 30 | 8 | 255 | 59 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 25 | AAA MLE | Reno Aces | — | 157 | 142 | 34 | 9 | 1 | 6 | 9 | 40 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 239 | 303 | 444 | 747 | 204 | 278 | 25 | 6 | 324 | 105 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 25 | AA MLE | Amarillo Sod Poodles | — | 456 | 424 | 96 | 19 | 2 | 13 | 27 | 115 | 4 | 11 | 6 | 226 | 279 | 373 | 652 | 146 | 278 | 25 | 6 | 284 | 78 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 26 | MLB MLE | Arizona Diamondbacks | — | 225 | 199 | 39 | 7 | 0 | 7 | 20 | 64 | 1 | 8 | 2 | 196 | 273 | 337 | 609 | 141 | 252 | 28 | 9 | 274 | 72 | -8 | +1 | -0 | +1 | +5 | -0.1 |
| 2025 | 26 | AAA MLE | Reno Aces | — | 78 | 66 | 13 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 8 | 15 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 197 | 303 | 379 | 681 | 182 | 206 | 19 | 10 | 311 | 97 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 27 | MLB MLE | Arizona Diamondbacks | — | 351 | 313 | 75 | 12 | 1 | 12 | 27 | 84 | 0 | 8 | 4 | 240 | 300 | 399 | 699 | 160 | 288 | 24 | 8 | 297 | 87 | -5 | +0 | -1 | -5 | +8 | -0.4 |
| 2026 | 27 | AAA MLE | Reno Aces | — | 88 | 79 | 21 | 5 | 2 | 5 | 7 | 16 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 266 | 333 | 570 | 903 | 304 | 262 | 18 | 8 | 383 | 145 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 22 | A MLE | Visalia Rawhide | — | 164 | 147 | 31 | 7 | 2 | 4 | 15 | 50 | 1 | 13 | 0 | 211 | 288 | 367 | 656 | 156 | 287 | 30 | 9 | 283 | 78 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 22 | A RAW | Visalia Rawhide | — | 164 | 140 | 37 | 9 | 2 | 5 | 22 | 36 | 1 | 13 | 0 | 264 | 368 | 464 | 832 | 200 | 320 | 22 | 13 | 368 | 78 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 23 | A+ MLE | 2 teams | — | 493 | 448 | 93 | 12 | 1 | 11 | 39 | 116 | 4 | 11 | 6 | 208 | 277 | 312 | 589 | 105 | 254 | 24 | 8 | 265 | 65 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 23 | A+ RAW | 2 teams | — | 493 | 431 | 103 | 15 | 1 | 13 | 56 | 93 | 4 | 11 | 6 | 239 | 332 | 369 | 701 | 130 | 275 | 19 | 11 | 318 | 65 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 24 | AA MLE | Amarillo Sod Poodles | — | 497 | 447 | 87 | 17 | 1 | 11 | 42 | 147 | 2 | 11 | 7 | 195 | 267 | 311 | 578 | 116 | 258 | 30 | 8 | 255 | 59 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 24 | AA RAW | Amarillo Sod Poodles | — | 497 | 434 | 111 | 21 | 1 | 22 | 55 | 121 | 2 | 11 | 7 | 256 | 342 | 461 | 803 | 205 | 300 | 24 | 11 | 352 | 59 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 25 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 613 | 566 | 130 | 28 | 3 | 20 | 36 | 155 | 8 | 14 | 6 | 230 | 285 | 396 | 681 | 166 | 279 | 25 | 6 | 294 | 85 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 25 | AA RAW | 2 teams | — | 613 | 549 | 153 | 33 | 3 | 31 | 53 | 128 | 8 | 14 | 6 | 279 | 351 | 519 | 870 | 240 | 310 | 21 | 9 | 379 | 85 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 26 | MLB MLE | 2 teams | — | 303 | 265 | 53 | 11 | 1 | 10 | 28 | 79 | 3 | 10 | 2 | 200 | 284 | 362 | 646 | 162 | 238 | 26 | 9 | 284 | 78 | -8 | +1 | -0 | +1 | +7 | 0.1 |
| 2025 | 26 | MLB RAW | 2 teams | — | 303 | 262 | 55 | 13 | 1 | 10 | 31 | 77 | 3 | 10 | 2 | 210 | 301 | 382 | 682 | 172 | 250 | 25 | 10 | 300 | 78 | -8 | +1 | -0 | +1 | +7 | 0.1 |
| 2026 | 27 | MLB MLE | 2 teams | — | 439 | 392 | 95 | 17 | 3 | 17 | 34 | 100 | 1 | 10 | 5 | 242 | 304 | 431 | 736 | 189 | 279 | 23 | 8 | 314 | 99 | -1 | +0 | -1 | -5 | +10 | 0.3 |
| 2026 | 27 | MLB RAW | 2 teams | — | 439 | 388 | 99 | 19 | 3 | 18 | 38 | 97 | 1 | 10 | 5 | 255 | 323 | 459 | 782 | 204 | 291 | 22 | 9 | 336 | 99 | -1 | +0 | -1 | -5 | +10 | 0.3 |
| 2021 | 22 | A MLE | Visalia Rawhide | — | 164 | 147 | 31 | 7 | 2 | 4 | 15 | 50 | 1 | 13 | 0 | 211 | 288 | 367 | 656 | 156 | 278 | 30 | 9 | 283 | 78 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 23 | A+ MLE | 2 teams | — | 493 | 447 | 93 | 12 | 1 | 11 | 39 | 116 | 4 | 11 | 6 | 208 | 277 | 313 | 590 | 105 | 252 | 24 | 8 | 265 | 65 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 24 | AA MLE | Amarillo Sod Poodles | — | 497 | 450 | 87 | 17 | 1 | 11 | 42 | 147 | 2 | 11 | 7 | 193 | 267 | 309 | 576 | 116 | 252 | 30 | 8 | 255 | 59 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 25 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 613 | 564 | 130 | 28 | 3 | 20 | 36 | 155 | 8 | 14 | 6 | 230 | 285 | 397 | 682 | 167 | 278 | 25 | 6 | 294 | 85 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 26 | MLB MLE | 2 teams | — | 303 | 269 | 53 | 11 | 1 | 10 | 28 | 79 | 3 | 10 | 2 | 197 | 284 | 357 | 641 | 160 | 240 | 26 | 9 | 284 | 78 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 27 | MLB MLE | 2 teams | — | 439 | 401 | 95 | 17 | 3 | 17 | 34 | 100 | 1 | 10 | 5 | 237 | 304 | 421 | 726 | 185 | 283 | 23 | 8 | 314 | 99 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2024 | 25 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 613 | 564 | 130 | 28 | 3 | 20 | 36 | 155 | 8 | 14 | 6 | 230 | 285 | 397 | 682 | 167 | 278 | 25 | 6 | 294 | 85 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 26 | MLB MLE | 2 teams | — | 303 | 269 | 53 | 11 | 1 | 10 | 28 | 79 | 3 | 10 | 2 | 197 | 284 | 357 | 641 | 160 | 240 | 26 | 9 | 284 | 78 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 27 | MLB MLE | 2 teams | — | 439 | 401 | 95 | 17 | 3 | 17 | 34 | 100 | 1 | 10 | 5 | 237 | 304 | 421 | 726 | 185 | 283 | 23 | 8 | 314 | 99 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ 2027 season | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 28 | MLB MLE | ARI | 100% | 444 | 402 | 94 | 17 | 2 | 16 | 36 | 104 | 3 | 11 | 3 | 235 | 303 | 410 | 712 | 175 | 274 | 23 | 8 | 315 | 99 | -0 | +1 | -1 | -5 | +10 | 1.2 |
| ▸ 2027 — real world (MLB) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 28 | MLB CTX | ARI | 100% | 352 | 318 | 76 | 15 | 2 | 12 | 29 | 82 | 2 | 9 | 2 | 240 | 307 | 416 | 724 | 176 | 284 | 23 | 8 | 319 | 99 | -0 | +1 | -1 | -4 | +8 | 0.4 |
| ▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2028 | 29 | MLB MLE | ARI | 92% | 340 | 307 | 72 | 13 | 2 | 12 | 28 | 80 | 2 | 7 | 2 | 232 | 300 | 404 | 703 | 171 | 273 | 24 | 8 | 311 | 97 | -1 | +1 | -2 | -4 | +7 | 0.1 |
| 2029 | 30 | MLB MLE | ARI | 92% | 328 | 297 | 68 | 12 | 2 | 11 | 26 | 79 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 229 | 296 | 395 | 691 | 166 | 270 | 24 | 8 | 306 | 93 | -3 | +1 | -3 | -4 | +7 | -0.1 |
| 2030 | 31 | MLB MLE | ARI | 92% | 309 | 280 | 62 | 11 | 1 | 10 | 25 | 75 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 225 | 290 | 385 | 675 | 160 | 267 | 24 | 8 | 300 | 89 | -4 | +0 | -3 | -3 | +7 | -0.4 |
| 2031 | 32 | MLB MLE | ARI | 92% | 285 | 260 | 57 | 10 | 1 | 9 | 22 | 71 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 219 | 284 | 371 | 654 | 152 | 262 | 25 | 8 | 291 | 83 | -6 | -0 | -4 | -3 | +6 | -0.7 |
| 2028 | 29 | MLB CTX | ARI | 92% | 313 | 282 | 68 | 13 | 2 | 11 | 26 | 74 | 2 | 6 | 2 | 238 | 304 | 410 | 714 | 172 | 282 | 24 | 8 | 316 | 97 | -1 | +0 | -2 | -3 | +7 | 0.1 |
| 2029 | 30 | MLB CTX | ARI | 92% | 302 | 273 | 65 | 13 | 2 | 10 | 24 | 72 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 234 | 300 | 401 | 702 | 167 | 279 | 24 | 8 | 310 | 93 | -2 | +1 | -3 | -3 | +7 | -0.1 |
| 2030 | 31 | MLB CTX | ARI | 92% | 284 | 258 | 58 | 11 | 1 | 9 | 23 | 69 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 229 | 295 | 390 | 685 | 161 | 275 | 24 | 8 | 304 | 89 | -4 | +0 | -3 | -3 | +6 | -0.4 |
| 2031 | 32 | MLB CTX | ARI | 92% | 262 | 238 | 53 | 10 | 1 | 8 | 21 | 65 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 223 | 288 | 376 | 664 | 153 | 270 | 25 | 8 | 295 | 83 | -5 | -0 | -4 | -3 | +6 | -0.7 |
| ▸ Career Totals | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | A+C | — | 1737 | 1563 | 359 | 68 | 7 | 56 | 141 | 428 | 7 | 29 | 11 | 230 | 296 | 390 | 686 | 160 | 277 | 25 | 8 | 301 | 83 | -24 | +1 | -13 | -16 | +38 | -1.5 | |
| / 162G | — | A+C | — | 650 | 585 | 134 | 25 | 3 | 21 | 53 | 160 | 3 | 11 | 4 | 229 | 297 | 390 | 687 | 161 | 276 | 25 | 8 | 301 | 83 | -9 | +1 | -5 | -6 | +14 | -0.5 | |
| Career | — | MLE | — | 4123 | 3727 | 823 | 151 | 19 | 128 | 324 | 1034 | 27 | 93 | 33 | 221 | 288 | 375 | 662 | 154 | 268 | 25 | 8 | 291 | 83 | -26 | +3 | -15 | -21 | +47 | -1.1 | |
| / 162G | — | MLE | — | 650 | 588 | 130 | 24 | 3 | 20 | 51 | 163 | 4 | 15 | 5 | 221 | 288 | 374 | 662 | 153 | 268 | 25 | 8 | 291 | 83 | -8 | +1 | -4 | -6 | +14 | -0.3 | |
How the minor-league lines were translated
One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.
2026 AAAReno Aces · 88 PAwOBA .467 → .383 (−84)K% 14.8% → 17.7%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 14.77% | ÷1.000 | ×1.200 | — | — | 17.73% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 11.36% | ÷1.000 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.003 | 7.86% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.14% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×1.003 | 1.07% |
| Singles /BIP | 14.52% | ÷1.000 | ×0.930 | ×0.993 | ×1.003 | 13.45% |
| Doubles /BIP | 9.68% | ÷1.000 | ×0.830 | ×0.993 | ×1.003 | 8.00% |
| Triples /BIP | 3.23% | ÷1.000 | ×0.970 | ×0.993 | ×1.003 | 3.12% |
| Home runs /BIP | 11.29% | ÷1.000 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.003 | 7.93% |
Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 27 vs a level average of 27.2 → +0.3% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.993.
Result: wOBA .467 → .383; ISO .413 → .327; BABIP .304 → .262. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2025 AAAReno Aces · 78 PAwOBA .370 → .311 (−59)K% 16.7% → 19.5%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 16.67% | ÷1.025 | ×1.200 | — | — | 19.51% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 14.10% | ÷0.964 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.018 | 10.28% |
| HBP% /PA | 2.56% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×1.018 | 2.45% |
| Singles /BIP | 12.00% | ÷0.994 | ×0.930 | ×0.950 | ×1.018 | 10.86% |
| Doubles /BIP | 10.00% | ÷1.069 | ×0.830 | ×0.950 | ×1.018 | 7.51% |
| Triples /BIP | 2.00% | ÷0.902 | ×0.970 | ×0.950 | ×1.018 | 2.08% |
| Home runs /BIP | 6.00% | ÷0.904 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.018 | 4.73% |
Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 81, 1B 99, 2B 114, 3B 80, K 105, BB 93 — applied at half strength. Age: age 26 vs a level average of 27.2 → +1.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.
Result: wOBA .370 → .311; ISO .254 → .217; BABIP .245 → .206. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2024 AAAmarillo Sod Poodles · 456 PAwOBA .354 → .284 (−70)K% 21.1% → 25.2%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 21.05% | ÷1.018 | ×1.220 | — | — | 25.23% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 8.77% | ÷1.026 | ×0.700 | — | ×0.998 | 5.97% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.88% | — | ×0.870 | — | ×0.998 | 0.76% |
| Singles /BIP | 20.95% | ÷0.974 | ×0.920 | ×1.009 | ×0.998 | 19.94% |
| Doubles /BIP | 6.98% | ÷0.966 | ×0.840 | ×1.009 | ×0.998 | 6.12% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.63% | ÷0.987 | ×0.940 | ×1.009 | ×0.998 | 0.61% |
| Home runs /BIP | 6.67% | ÷1.229 | ×0.800 | — | ×0.998 | 4.33% |
Factors used: league row TL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 146, 1B 95, 2B 93, 3B 97, K 104, BB 105 — applied at half strength. Age: age 25 vs a level average of 24.8 → −0.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.009.
Result: wOBA .354 → .284; ISO .217 → .153; BABIP .305 → .278. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2024 AAAReno Aces · 157 PAwOBA .418 → .324 (−94)K% 20.4% → 25.4%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 20.38% | ÷0.964 | ×1.200 | — | — | 25.38% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 8.28% | ÷1.012 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.033 | 5.83% |
| HBP% /PA | 2.55% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×1.033 | 2.47% |
| Singles /BIP | 18.87% | ÷1.076 | ×0.930 | ×1.006 | ×1.033 | 16.94% |
| Doubles /BIP | 10.38% | ÷1.025 | ×0.830 | ×1.006 | ×1.033 | 8.73% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.94% | ÷1.017 | ×0.970 | ×1.006 | ×1.033 | 0.94% |
| Home runs /BIP | 9.43% | ÷1.124 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.033 | 6.07% |
Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 125, 1B 115, 2B 105, 3B 103, K 93, BB 102 — applied at half strength. Age: age 25 vs a level average of 27.2 → +3.3% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.006.
Result: wOBA .418 → .324; ISO .312 → .217; BABIP .327 → .278. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2023 AAAmarillo Sod Poodles · 497 PAwOBA .347 → .255 (−91)K% 24.3% → 29.6%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 24.35% | ÷1.003 | ×1.220 | — | — | 29.62% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 11.07% | ÷0.922 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.012 | 8.50% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.40% | — | ×0.870 | — | ×1.012 | 0.35% |
| Singles /BIP | 21.41% | ÷1.054 | ×0.920 | ×1.000 | ×1.012 | 18.91% |
| Doubles /BIP | 6.71% | ÷1.008 | ×0.840 | ×1.000 | ×1.012 | 5.66% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.32% | ÷1.124 | ×0.940 | ×1.000 | ×1.012 | 0.27% |
| Home runs /BIP | 7.03% | ÷1.637 | ×0.800 | — | ×1.012 | 3.48% |
Factors used: league row TL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 227, 1B 111, 2B 102, 3B 125, K 101, BB 84 — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 24.8 → +1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.000.
Result: wOBA .347 → .255; ISO .205 → .117; BABIP .300 → .252. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2022 A+Hillsboro Hops · 247 PAwOBA .359 → .313 (−46)K% 14.6% → 18.8%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 14.57% | ÷1.046 | ×1.350 | — | — | 18.80% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 12.55% | ÷0.974 | ×0.710 | — | ×0.998 | 9.13% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.81% | — | ×0.810 | — | ×0.998 | 0.65% |
| Singles /BIP | 24.29% | ÷0.965 | ×0.910 | ×1.010 | ×0.998 | 23.09% |
| Doubles /BIP | 4.52% | ÷1.100 | ×0.830 | ×1.010 | ×0.998 | 3.44% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.56% | ÷1.006 | ×0.820 | ×1.010 | ×0.998 | 0.46% |
| Home runs /BIP | 4.52% | ÷0.848 | ×0.830 | — | ×0.998 | 4.42% |
Factors used: level-wide A+ factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 70, 1B 93, 2B 120, 3B 101, K 109, BB 95 — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 22.8 → −0.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.010.
Result: wOBA .359 → .313; ISO .160 → .146; BABIP .306 → .281. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2022 AAAmarillo Sod Poodles · 246 PAwOBA .264 → .216 (−48)K% 23.2% → 28.1%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 23.17% | ÷1.008 | ×1.220 | — | — | 28.06% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 10.16% | ÷1.061 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.027 | 6.89% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.81% | — | ×0.870 | — | ×1.027 | 0.73% |
| Singles /BIP | 19.25% | ÷1.048 | ×0.920 | ×1.037 | ×1.027 | 17.99% |
| Doubles /BIP | 4.35% | ÷1.022 | ×0.840 | ×1.037 | ×1.027 | 3.80% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.938 | ×0.940 | ×1.037 | ×1.027 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 3.11% | ÷1.094 | ×0.800 | — | ×1.027 | 2.33% |
Factors used: league row TL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 119, 1B 110, 2B 104, 3B 88, K 102, BB 112 — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 24.8 → +2.7% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.037.
Result: wOBA .264 → .216; ISO .101 → .078; BABIP .242 → .222. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2021 AVisalia Rawhide · 164 PAwOBA .360 → .283 (−78)K% 22.0% → 30.2%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 21.95% | ÷0.988 | ×1.360 | — | — | 30.22% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 13.41% | ÷1.013 | ×0.690 | — | — | 9.14% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.61% | — | ×0.780 | — | — | 0.48% |
| Singles /BIP | 20.19% | ÷1.006 | ×0.920 | ×0.999 | — | 18.46% |
| Doubles /BIP | 8.65% | ÷1.056 | ×0.830 | ×0.999 | — | 6.80% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.92% | ÷1.054 | ×0.910 | ×0.999 | — | 1.66% |
| Home runs /BIP | 4.81% | ÷0.923 | ×0.800 | — | — | 4.17% |
Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 85, 1B 101, 2B 111, 3B 111, K 98, BB 103 — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 22.0 → +0.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.0 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.999.
Result: wOBA .360 → .283; ISO .200 → .159; BABIP .320 → .278. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).