Michael Arroyo — OGILVIE

Michael ArroyoSS Arkansas Travelers

Age 22 R/R 5'10" / 160 lbs AA K +7%HR -5% Svc 1.000 · Ctrl thru 2031

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTION0 act + 0 ros · stats below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+†107

AVG/OBP/SLG.252 / .327 / .396

PA45

HR1

K%18

BB%7

BABIP290

ISO122

MLB%14%

Value2026 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control+$27M ctrl surplus

Tools · Recent Form · ContractCON 54 / POW 52

Toolsscout grade · Statcast %ile · 2026

CONTACT54

xAVG

900.323

POWER52

Barrel%

123.3

Avg EV

4688.8

EYE58

scouting grade only

SPEED49

Sprint

6828.2

DEFENSE45

scouting grade only

Recent Formrolling true talent ⓘ

K%17%▲15% over 41 PA (60d) · proj 19%

BB%8%▲12% over 41 PA (60d) · proj 7%

ISO.147·.143 over 35 AB (60d) · proj .148

HR/BB3.6%·3.3% over 30 BBE (60d) · proj 3.7%

BABIP.296▲.414 over 29 BIP (60d) · proj .292

SLASH.262/.344/.409▲proj .254/.327/.402

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status Pre-Arb

MLB Debut 2026

Service 1.000 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2031

First FA Year 2032

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027ROS	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.2	$0.8M	+$0.1M
2028	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+1.5	$11M	+$10M
2029	Arb-1	$7M	+2.1	$14M	+$8M
2030	Arb-2	$13M	+2.4	$15M	+$6M
2031	Arb-3	$21M	+2.5	$15M	+$1M
Totals		$43M		$56M	+$26M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2022	17	ROK	DSL Mariners	—	199	153	48	10	2	4	27	33	16	4	4	314	464	484	948	170	370	17	14	422	75	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	18	A	Modesto Nuts	—	265	209	49	17	3	2	36	53	18	5	3	234	392	373	765	139	301	20	14	353	81	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	19	A+	Everett AquaSox	—	290	241	70	15	2	12	34	75	11	10	5	290	402	519	921	228	367	26	12	401	95	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	19	A	Modesto Nuts	—	302	244	68	11	5	11	39	61	15	8	1	279	409	500	909	221	324	20	13	399	106	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	20	AA	Arkansas Travelers	—	250	208	53	10	1	2	30	39	11	9	3	255	378	341	719	87	304	16	12	335	86	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	20	A+	Everett AquaSox	—	306	242	65	14	0	15	39	65	25	3	2	269	422	512	934	244	309	21	13	416	103	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	21	MLB	Seattle Mariners	—	41	35	13	2	0	1	5	6	0	2	0	371	450	514	964	143	414	15	12	419	172	+4	+0	+0	+6	+1	1.1
2026	21	AAA	Tacoma Rainiers	—	235	202	56	11	4	8	19	38	8	4	2	277	362	490	853	213	296	16	8	367	103	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	21	AA	Arkansas Travelers	—	297	261	75	12	1	10	24	49	9	13	2	287	367	456	823	169	317	16	8	364	95	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Career Totals (raw MLB only — historical actual)
MLB Career	—			—	41	35	13	2	0	1	5	6	0	2	0	371	450	514	964	143	414	15	12	419	170	+3	+0	+0	+6	+1	1.1
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2022	17	ROK MLE	DSL Mariners	—	199	162	33	7	1	2	18	41	16	4	4	204	342	296	638	93	236	21	9	279	75	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	18	A MLE	Modesto Nuts	—	265	219	44	14	2	2	26	70	18	5	3	201	335	311	645	110	272	26	10	288	81	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	19	A+ MLE	Everett AquaSox	—	290	252	57	11	2	8	23	101	11	10	5	226	318	381	699	155	324	35	8	308	95	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	19	A MLE	Modesto Nuts	—	302	256	60	8	4	10	27	84	15	8	1	234	342	414	756	180	287	28	9	325	106	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	20	AA MLE	Arkansas Travelers	—	250	215	49	9	1	2	23	45	11	9	3	228	333	307	640	79	279	18	9	295	86	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	20	A+ MLE	Everett AquaSox	—	306	253	53	11	0	12	28	92	25	3	2	209	346	395	742	186	270	30	9	321	103	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	21	MLB MLE	Seattle Mariners	—	41	35	13	2	0	1	5	6	0	2	0	371	450	514	964	143	414	15	12	423	172	+4	+0	+0	+6	+1	1.1
2026	21	AAA MLE	Tacoma Rainiers	—	235	207	51	9	4	6	14	46	8	4	2	246	319	415	734	169	270	20	6	320	103	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	21	AA MLE	Arkansas Travelers	—	297	268	67	10	1	8	17	60	9	13	2	250	316	384	701	134	284	20	6	308	95	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	17	ROK MLE	DSL Mariners	—	199	162	33	7	1	2	18	41	16	4	4	204	342	296	638	93	254	21	9	279	75	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	17	ROK RAW	DSL Mariners	—	199	153	48	10	2	4	27	33	16	4	4	314	464	484	948	170	370	17	14	422	75	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	18	A MLE	Modesto Nuts	—	265	219	44	14	2	2	26	70	18	5	3	201	335	311	645	110	282	26	10	288	81	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	18	A RAW	Modesto Nuts	—	265	209	49	17	3	2	36	53	18	5	3	234	392	373	765	139	301	20	14	353	81	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	19	A MLE	2 teams	—	592	507	118	20	6	18	51	185	26	18	6	233	334	402	736	170	321	31	9	317	100	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	19	A RAW	2 teams	—	592	485	138	26	7	23	73	136	26	18	6	285	406	509	915	225	344	23	12	400	100	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	20	A+ MLE	2 teams	—	556	467	104	21	1	14	52	137	36	12	5	223	346	362	708	139	284	25	9	309	95	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	20	A+ RAW	2 teams	—	556	450	118	24	1	17	69	104	36	12	5	262	402	433	835	171	306	19	12	380	95	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	21	AA MLE	3 teams	—	573	511	132	22	5	15	35	111	17	19	4	258	327	409	736	151	296	19	6	321	103	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	21	AA RAW	3 teams	—	573	498	144	25	5	19	48	93	17	19	4	289	371	474	845	185	316	16	8	369	103	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	17	ROK MLE	DSL Mariners	—	199	163	33	7	1	2	18	41	16	4	4	202	342	294	636	92	236	21	9	279	75	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	18	A MLE	Modesto Nuts	—	265	219	44	14	2	2	26	70	18	5	3	201	335	311	645	110	272	26	10	288	81	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	19	A MLE	2 teams	—	592	510	118	20	6	18	51	185	26	18	6	231	334	400	734	169	305	31	9	317	100	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	20	A+ MLE	2 teams	—	556	463	104	21	1	14	52	137	36	12	5	225	346	365	711	140	274	25	9	309	95	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	21	AA MLE	3 teams	—	573	516	132	22	5	15	35	111	17	19	4	256	327	405	732	149	288	19	6	321	103	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons)
2024	19	A MLE	2 teams	—	592	510	118	20	6	18	51	185	26	18	6	231	334	400	734	169	305	31	9	317	100	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	20	A+ MLE	2 teams	—	556	463	104	21	1	14	52	137	36	12	5	225	346	365	711	140	274	25	9	309	95	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	21	AA MLE	3 teams	—	573	516	132	22	5	15	35	111	17	19	4	256	327	405	732	149	288	19	6	321	103	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2027 season
▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability)
2027	22	MLB MLE	SEA	14%	648	578	147	25	5	17	45	122	20	17	4	254	329	402	731	148	292	19	7	327	107	+6	+2	-3	+7	+14	1.5
▸ 2027 — real world (MLB)
2027	22	MLB CTX	SEA	14%	45	41	10	2	0	1	3	8	1	1	0	252	327	396	723	144	290	18	7	323	107	+0	+0	-0	+0	+1	0.2
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
2028	23	MLB MLE	SEA	57%	639	571	144	25	4	17	45	120	18	17	4	254	328	404	732	150	291	19	7	327	107	+6	+2	-2	+7	+14	2.6
2029	24	MLB MLE	SEA	72%	648	578	147	25	4	19	47	122	18	17	4	256	331	414	745	158	292	19	7	332	111	+8	+2	-2	+7	+14	2.9
2030	25	MLB MLE	SEA	78%	648	578	149	26	4	20	48	123	17	17	4	257	332	419	751	162	292	19	7	334	112	+9	+2	-2	+7	+14	3.0
2031	26	MLB MLE	SEA	82%	648	578	149	26	4	20	48	123	17	16	4	257	332	420	752	163	292	19	7	334	112	+10	+2	-2	+7	+14	3.1
2032	27	MLB MLE	SEA	81%	643	573	147	25	4	20	48	123	17	16	4	256	331	418	749	162	292	19	7	333	112	+9	+2	-2	+7	+14	3.0
2033	28	MLB MLE	SEA	81%	635	567	144	25	4	19	47	123	16	13	3	254	329	413	743	159	291	19	7	331	110	+7	+1	-3	+7	+14	2.7
2034	29	MLB MLE	SEA	79%	623	556	140	24	4	18	46	122	16	10	3	252	327	407	734	155	290	20	7	327	107	+6	+1	-4	+7	+13	2.3
2035	30	MLB MLE	SEA	78%	611	546	136	23	4	17	45	122	15	8	2	249	323	400	723	151	289	20	7	323	105	+3	+1	-4	+7	+13	2.0
2036	31	MLB MLE	SEA	77%	596	533	130	22	3	16	43	121	15	3	2	245	319	390	709	145	286	20	7	317	101	+0	-0	-5	+6	+13	1.5
2037	32	MLB MLE	SEA	77%	577	517	125	21	3	15	41	120	14	3	1	240	313	378	691	138	283	21	7	310	96	-3	+0	-5	+6	+13	1.1
2038	33	MLB MLE	SEA	77%	547	491	115	19	3	13	38	117	13	2	1	234	305	363	668	129	278	21	7	301	90	-7	+0	-6	+6	+12	0.5
2039	34	MLB MLE	SEA	72%	499	451	102	16	3	11	34	110	11	1	1	226	296	345	641	120	272	22	7	289	82	-11	-0	-7	+5	+11	-0.1
2028	23	MLB CTX	SEA	57%	365	326	82	14	2	10	26	69	10	10	2	251	326	398	724	147	288	19	7	324	107	+3	+1	-1	+4	+8	1.5
2029	24	MLB CTX	SEA	72%	464	415	105	18	3	13	33	87	13	12	3	254	328	408	737	154	289	19	7	328	111	+6	+1	-2	+5	+10	2.1
2030	25	MLB CTX	SEA	78%	508	453	115	20	3	15	37	96	13	13	3	254	330	413	742	158	289	19	7	330	112	+7	+1	-2	+5	+11	2.4
2031	26	MLB CTX	SEA	82%	529	471	120	21	3	16	39	101	14	13	3	254	330	414	744	160	289	19	7	331	112	+8	+1	-2	+6	+11	2.5
2032	27	MLB CTX	SEA	81%	522	465	118	20	3	16	39	100	13	13	3	253	329	412	740	158	289	19	7	330	112	+7	+1	-2	+6	+11	2.4
2033	28	MLB CTX	SEA	81%	515	459	116	20	3	15	38	100	13	11	3	252	327	407	734	155	288	19	7	327	110	+6	+1	-2	+6	+11	2.2
2034	29	MLB CTX	SEA	79%	493	442	110	19	3	14	36	97	12	8	2	250	324	401	726	152	287	20	7	324	107	+4	+1	-3	+5	+11	1.9
2035	30	MLB CTX	SEA	78%	476	426	105	18	3	13	35	95	12	6	2	247	321	394	715	147	286	20	7	320	105	+3	+0	-3	+5	+10	1.5
2036	31	MLB CTX	SEA	77%	461	414	101	17	3	12	33	94	11	2	1	243	316	385	701	142	284	20	7	314	101	+0	+0	-4	+5	+10	1.2
2037	32	MLB CTX	SEA	77%	444	399	95	16	2	11	31	92	11	2	1	238	310	373	683	135	280	21	7	307	96	-2	+0	-4	+5	+10	0.8
2038	33	MLB CTX	SEA	77%	419	377	87	14	2	10	29	90	10	1	1	232	303	358	661	127	276	21	7	298	90	-5	-0	-5	+4	+9	0.4
2039	34	MLB CTX	SEA	72%	360	325	73	11	2	8	24	80	8	1	0	224	294	341	635	117	270	22	7	287	82	-8	+0	-5	+4	+8	-0.1
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	5597	5007	1240	210	32	154	405	1107	140	94	24	248	322	395	716	147	288	20	7	320	102	+33	+9	-34	+66	+121	19.9
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	581	144	24	4	18	47	129	16	11	3	248	321	396	717	148	288	20	7	320	102	+4	+1	-4	+8	+14	2.3
Career	—	MLE		—	9819	8690	2131	373	61	264	734	2050	310	189	57	245	326	393	720	148	290	21	7	320	102	+44	+13	-46	+88	+166	27.0
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	575	141	25	4	17	49	136	21	13	4	245	328	391	719	146	291	21	8	320	102	+4	+1	-4	+7	+14	2.3

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	162s	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Asdrúbal Cabreralast yr '21 career totals — 15 seasons, 7,401 PA	11.1	7,401	195	91	266	329	423	+58	+11	38.2	32.2
/162	664	17	8	+5.2	+1.0	3.4	pk7: 26
#2Dan Ugglalast yr '15 career totals — 10 seasons, 5,509 PA	8.3	5,509	235	26	241	336	447	+20	-17	28.7	28.7
/162	664	28	3	+2.4	-2.1	3.5	pk7: 29
#3Brian Dozierlast yr '19 career totals — 8 seasons, 4,884 PA	7.4	4,884	192	105	245	326	442	+20	+24	27.7	27.6
/162	664	26	14	+2.7	+3.2	3.8	pk7: 28
#4Ian Desmondlast yr '19 career totals — 11 seasons, 5,944 PA	9.0	5,944	181	181	263	315	427	+30	-4	25.8	25.0
/162	664	20	20	+3.3	-0.4	2.9	pk7: 24
#5Jason Kipnislast yr '20 career totals — 10 seasons, 4,984 PA	7.5	4,984	126	136	260	333	416	+18	-11	22.6	21.9
/162	664	17	18	+2.4	-1.4	3.0	pk7: 21
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 9 projected seasons	8.4	5,601	158	93	250	320	402	+57	-16	25.0	21.8
/162	664	19	11	+6.8	-1.9	3.0	pk7: 19
#6Didi Gregoriuslast yr '22 career totals — 10 seasons, 4,238 PA	6.4	4,238	134	37	256	308	421	+45	-10	17.0	17.2
/162	664	21	6	+7.1	-1.5	2.7	pk7: 18

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Michael Arroyo (OGILVIE)	22	48→54	49→52	50→49	58	252/327/398	146	292	8	8	19%	7%	107	+1.0	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
●Vaughn Grissom 2023 · MLB	22	56→65	48→50	54→55	47	277/339/417	140	321	15	19	19%	6%	115	+2.4	264/329/386	122	318	11	15	19%	7%	104	+1.6	259/326/374	115	315	9	13	20%	8%	98	+0.8
●Bo Bichette 2020 · MLB	22	55→62	51→60	52→55	45	274/322/446	172	332	16	21	22%	6%	115	+2.4	283/327/467	184	336	21	18	22%	6%	122	+3.0	296/338/473	177	346	22	13	20%	5%	129	+3.8
●Alejandro Kirk 2021 · MLB	22	52→57	46→50	49→40	55	253/327/392	139	286	12	5	16%	9%	105	+1.7	260/338/400	140	280	16	2	13%	10%	111	+2.1	263/347/394	131	277	16	0	11%	10%	113	+1.5
●Carlos Correa 2017 · MLB	22	54→61	54→60	54→55	53	273/345/463	190	316	21	17	20%	10%	128	+3.3	269/344/470	201	314	25	7	22%	10%	129	+3.4	263/344/444	182	303	22	0	20%	10%	124	+3.1
●Luis Urías 2020 · MLB	23	51→61	47→55	47→45	50	248/327/387	140	308	14	6	23%	9%	104	+1.6	242/326/400	158	294	18	6	23%	9%	107	+1.8	239/331/399	160	283	19	4	21%	10%	109	+1.3
●Miguel Vargas 2023 · MLB	23	51→54	50→55	51→50	49	256/318/416	160	295	17	13	20%	8%	107	+1.8	227/316/385	158	269	16	11	21%	10%	99	+1.3	226/328/409	183	251	21	13	19%	12%	110	+2.0
✕Lastings Milledge 2009 · MLB	24	52→61	48→50	51→55	47	260/324/404	144	300	15	20	19%	6%	107	+1.8	265/318/378	113	308	10	18	17%	6%	97	+1.1	266/317/367	102	308	8	19	16%	6%	94	+0.6
●Omar Infante 2005 · MLB	23	50→60	47→55	50	48	250/302/397	146	290	14	13	19%	7%	96	+1.0	246/290/385	139	284	12	11	18%	6%	88	+0.5	285/317/412	127	305	11	9	10%	4%	105	+1.6
●Zach Neto 2024 · MLB	23	49→48	51→60	50→55	44	248/325/414	166	303	19	12	24%	6%	110	+2.1	249/318/442	193	305	23	23	26%	7%	114	+2.3	246/319/446	200	307	24	25	27%	7%	116	+2.6
●Jordan Walker 2024 · MLB	22	53→58	51→55	51→50	46	265/331/432	167	333	19	13	25%	8%	116	+2.5	239/297/388	149	309	17	12	27%	7%	93	+0.8	236/293/390	154	305	18	13	28%	7%	92	+0.7
●Gleyber Torres 2019 · MLB	22	51→55	53→60	46→50	47	259/324/431	172	322	20	10	26%	8%	113	+2.3	262/329/447	185	304	24	9	22%	9%	118	+2.7	259/345/399	140	294	17	6	17%	11%	114	+2.6
●Brandon Phillips 2003 · MLB	22	49→59	47→55	51→55	51	243/318/389	146	285	13	9	19%	8%	101	+1.4	221/268/341	120	262	12	8	20%	5%	71	-0.8	277/331/431	154	295	16	16	12%	6%	115	+2.7
✕Ronny Cedeno 2006 · MLB	23	59→60	46→45	51→50	47	290/332/416	126	324	13	16	15%	5%	112	+2.2	263/298/377	114	311	11	11	18%	4%	89	+0.5	253/297/377	125	295	14	9	19%	5%	89	+0.3
●Elijah Dukes 2008 · MLB	24	48→54	53→55	48→50	55	248/331/424	176	279	20	12	19%	10%	114	+2.3	245/342/416	171	293	17	14	21%	12%	116	+2.5	247/348/417	170	297	16	14	21%	12%	118	+2.0
✕Logan O'Hoppe 2023 · MLB	23	46→48	53→55	45	50	238/315/406	168	271	22	7	21%	8%	104	+1.6	238/301/417	179	290	25	5	26%	7%	101	+1.4	230/285/405	175	287	26	2	29%	6%	94	+0.6
●Wander Franco 2023 · MLB	22	56→60	48→55	53→55	53	275/330/432	157	294	13	11	12%	7%	114	+2.4	268/328/444	176	289	19	24	14%	8%	117	+2.6	274/336/469	195	291	21	37	14%	8%	126	+2.7
✕Jordan Diaz 2023 · MLB	22	55→59	50→55	42→30	43	277/313/436	159	316	18	3	19%	5%	109	+2.0	262/307/421	159	308	20	2	21%	5%	104	+1.6	259/307/418	159	304	21	0	22%	5%	101	+1.1
✕Ezequiel Tovar 2023 · MLB	21	50→49	49→55	54→50	42	253/296/401	148	300	16	18	22%	5%	95	+1.0	244/280/395	151	314	16	10	27%	4%	88	+0.4	240/274/388	149	310	15	8	27%	4%	85	+0.2
★Rickie Weeks Jr. 2006 · MLB	23	49→58	54→55	59→55	49	249/340/438	188	306	20	19	24%	9%	120	+2.8	251/351/417	166	310	16	23	23%	10%	120	+2.8	256/348/440	184	314	21	11	24%	10%	125	+3.4
●Starlin Castro 2012 · MLB	22	61→63	42→50	51→50	46	294/329/409	115	331	7	16	14%	5%	108	+1.9	273/311/400	127	313	11	14	16%	5%	99	+1.3	284/323/433	149	327	17	3	18%	5%	113	+2.3

Career Stats + Projections

Career Comps

Career Path Comps