Michael Arroyo — OGILVIE

Michael ArroyoSS Arkansas Travelers

Age 21 R/R 5'10" / 160 lbs AA HR -5% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2032

2026 ROS PROJECTION329 act + 219 ros · stats below = ROS only

wRC+†100

AVG/OBP/SLG.237 / .317 / .381

PA219

HR6

SB7

K%23

BB%7

BABIP289

ISO144

MLB%6%

Value2026 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control

Tools · ContractCON 54 / POW 52

Toolsscout grade

CONTACT54

scouting grade only

POWER52

scouting grade only

EYE59

scouting grade only

SPEED49

scouting grade only

DEFENSE45

scouting grade only

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2027

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2032

First FA Year 2033

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2027
2027	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+2.2	$16M	+$16M
2028	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+2.7	$19M	+$18M
2029	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+3.0	$19M	+$18M
2030	Arb-1	$6M	+3.1	$18M	+$14M
2031	Arb-2	$11M	+3.3	$18M	+$12M
2032	Arb-3	$16M	+3.3	$17M	+$8M
Totals		$36M		$107M	+$86M

Career Stats + Projections

Viewactual = stats as recorded (prior seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2022	17	ROK	DSL Mariners	—	199	165	38	8	1	3	15	50	16	4	4	230	352	345	697	115	304	25	8	304	91	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	17	ROK	DSL Mariners	—	199	153	48	10	2	4	27	33	16	4	4	314	464	484	948	170	370	17	14	422	181	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	18	A	Modesto Nuts	—	265	220	43	13	2	2	25	68	18	5	3	195	327	300	627	105	270	26	9	280	72	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	18	A	Modesto Nuts	—	265	209	49	17	3	2	36	53	18	5	3	234	392	373	765	139	301	20	14	353	129	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	19	A	2 teams	—	592	513	113	17	5	20	45	187	26	18	6	220	315	390	705	170	296	32	8	303	90	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	19	A	2 teams	—	592	485	138	26	7	23	73	136	26	18	6	285	406	509	915	225	344	23	12	400	164	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	20	A+	2 teams	—	556	472	100	21	1	14	47	144	36	12	5	212	330	350	679	138	273	26	8	296	85	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	20	A+	2 teams	—	556	450	118	24	1	17	69	104	36	12	5	262	402	433	835	171	306	19	12	380	149	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2026 Season (ACT · ROS-MLE · ROS-CTX · FULL)
YTD	21	AA	SEA	—	329	296	75	12	2	11	18	71	10	15	2	253	318	419	737	166	292	22	5	315	99	-0	+2	+0	+4	+9	1.5
YTD	21	AA	SEA	—	329	287	84	14	2	12	27	55	10	15	2	293	373	481	854	188	320	17	8	374	144	+16	+2	+0	+4	+9	3.2
ROS	21	AA	SEA	6%	219	194	46	8	1	6	15	51	8	7	1	237	317	381	698	144	286	23	7	316	100	-0	+1	-1	+2	+6	0.9
ROS	21	MLB	SEA	6%	13	12	2	0	0	0	1	3	0	0	0	167	231	167	397		283	23	8	287	78	-0	+0	-0	+0	+0	0.0
FULL	21	AA	SEA	—	342	308	77	12	2	11	19	74	10	15	2	250	315	409	724	159	289	22	6	314	99	-1	+2	-0	+4	+10	1.5
TOT	21	AA	SEA	—	548	490	121	20	3	17	33	122	18	22	3	247	318	404	722	157	291	22	6	316	100	-0	+3	-1	+6	+16	2.4
▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘPARK-NEUTRAL MLE · ALL-LEVEL PT ⓘ
2027	22	MLB	SEA	51%	581	518	125	22	3	18	40	134	18	15	3	241	318	400	717	158	285	23	7	316	100	+0	+2	-3	+6	+16	2.2
2028	23	MLB	SEA	69%	609	543	132	23	3	20	43	137	18	16	3	243	320	407	727	164	287	22	7	323	106	+4	+2	-3	+7	+17	2.7
2029	24	MLB	SEA	75%	627	558	137	24	3	21	46	139	18	16	3	246	323	412	735	167	288	22	7	327	109	+6	+2	-3	+7	+18	3.0
2030	25	MLB	SEA	77%	638	568	140	24	3	22	47	140	18	16	4	246	324	415	739	169	288	22	7	330	111	+8	+2	-3	+7	+18	3.1
2031	26	MLB	SEA	78%	646	573	142	25	3	22	49	142	19	17	4	248	328	417	745	169	288	22	8	331	111	+8	+2	-3	+7	+18	3.3
2032	27	MLB	SEA	77%	647	574	142	25	3	22	49	143	19	17	4	247	327	416	743	169	288	22	8	331	112	+8	+2	-3	+7	+18	3.3
2033	28	MLB	SEA	77%	637	565	139	24	3	22	49	141	18	15	3	246	326	416	742	170	288	22	8	330	111	+8	+2	-4	+7	+18	3.1
2034	29	MLB	SEA	75%	626	554	136	24	3	21	49	140	18	14	3	245	327	413	740	168	287	22	8	329	110	+7	+2	-5	+7	+18	2.9
2035	30	MLB	SEA	73%	615	544	133	23	3	21	48	139	18	12	3	244	326	414	740	169	286	23	8	326	108	+5	+1	-5	+7	+17	2.6
2036	31	MLB	SEA	73%	603	534	128	22	2	20	47	138	17	11	2	240	321	401	722	161	284	23	8	322	105	+3	+1	-6	+6	+17	2.3
2037	32	MLB	SEA	72%	592	524	124	21	2	19	46	138	17	9	2	237	319	393	712	156	281	23	8	317	101	+0	+1	-7	+6	+17	1.8
2038	33	MLB	SEA	72%	546	484	112	18	2	17	42	130	15	6	1	231	312	382	695	151	278	24	8	310	95	-3	+1	-7	+6	+15	1.3
2039	34	MLB	SEA	68%	499	444	99	16	2	14	38	122	14	4	1	223	304	363	667	140	272	24	8	302	89	-6	+0	-7	+5	+14	0.6
2040	35	MLB	SEA	63%	443	395	85	13	2	12	33	112	12	3	1	215	295	349	645	134	266	25	7	292	81	-9	+0	-8	+5	+13	0.0
2041	36	MLB	SEA	54%	382	341	71	10	1	10	28	99	10	2	0	208	288	331	619	123	261	26	7	281	74	-11	+0	-8	+4	+11	-0.4
2042	37	MLB	SEA	45%	316	282	56	8	1	7	23	85	8	1	0	199	278	309	586	110	254	27	7	270	65	-13	+0	-9	+3	+9	-0.9
2027	22	MLB	SEA	51%	295	264	62	11	1	9	20	68	9	8	2	235	311	386	697	152	283	23	7	290	80	-7	+1	-2	+3	+8	0.4
2028	23	MLB	SEA	69%	421	375	90	16	2	13	30	95	13	11	2	240	318	397	716	157	284	23	7	298	86	-7	+1	-2	+5	+12	0.9
2029	24	MLB	SEA	75%	467	416	101	18	2	15	34	103	14	12	3	243	321	404	725	161	285	22	7	303	90	-5	+1	-2	+5	+13	1.2
2030	25	MLB	SEA	77%	492	438	106	18	2	16	37	108	14	13	3	242	321	402	723	160	285	22	8	305	92	-5	+1	-3	+5	+14	1.4
2031	26	MLB	SEA	78%	506	448	109	19	2	17	38	111	15	13	3	243	323	408	732	165	285	22	8	306	93	-4	+1	-3	+5	+14	1.5
2032	27	MLB	SEA	77%	499	444	108	19	2	17	38	110	14	13	3	243	323	410	732	167	285	22	8	306	93	-4	+1	-3	+5	+14	1.4
2033	28	MLB	SEA	77%	488	433	104	18	2	16	38	108	14	12	3	240	322	402	723	162	285	22	8	306	92	-4	+1	-3	+5	+14	1.3
2034	29	MLB	SEA	75%	467	415	99	17	2	15	36	104	13	10	2	239	319	398	717	159	284	22	8	304	91	-5	+1	-3	+5	+13	1.1
2035	30	MLB	SEA	73%	452	401	96	16	2	15	35	102	13	9	2	239	321	401	722	162	283	23	8	302	89	-6	+1	-4	+5	+13	0.9
2036	31	MLB	SEA	73%	439	390	93	16	2	14	34	101	12	8	2	238	319	397	716	159	282	23	8	298	86	-7	+1	-4	+5	+12	0.7
2037	32	MLB	SEA	72%	429	381	89	15	2	13	33	100	12	6	1	234	315	386	700	152	279	23	8	293	82	-9	+1	-5	+5	+12	0.4
2038	33	MLB	SEA	72%	394	350	80	13	1	12	30	94	11	5	1	229	309	374	684	146	275	24	8	287	77	-10	+1	-5	+4	+11	0.1
2039	34	MLB	SEA	68%	338	300	66	10	1	10	26	83	9	3	1	220	301	360	661	140	270	25	8	278	71	-11	+0	-5	+4	+10	-0.3
2040	35	MLB	SEA	63%	280	249	53	8	1	7	21	71	8	2	0	213	295	337	632	124	264	25	8	269	64	-11	+0	-5	+3	+8	-0.5
2041	36	MLB	SEA	54%	207	184	38	5	1	5	15	54	6	1	0	207	288	326	614	120	258	26	7	259	56	-10	+0	-4	+2	+6	-0.7
2042	37	MLB	SEA	45%	143	128	24	3	0	3	10	38	4	0	0	188	268	281	549	94	252	27	7	248	48	-8	+0	-4	+2	+4	-0.7
▸ Career Totals
Career	—			—	6330	5628	1320	222	25	197	476	1453	181	126	28	235	315	388	702	153	280	23	8	295	84	-113	+14	-57	+68	+179	9.3
/ 162G	—			—	650	578	136	23	3	20	49	149	19	13	3	235	316	389	706	154	282	23	8	295	84	-12	+1	-6	+7	+18	0.9
Career	—			—	10838	9565	2241	389	49	333	824	2579	361	220	56	234	319	390	708	155	284	24	8	315	99	-11	+22	-86	+116	+307	35.5
/ 162G	—			—	650	574	134	23	3	20	49	155	22	13	3	233	318	389	707	155	283	24	8	315	99	-1	+1	-5	+7	+18	2.1

Historical Stats — Raw (Per Stint)

Actual MLB + MiLB stats as they happened, one row per stint at each level. Use this to see what really got recorded; the table above shows MLB-equivalent translations + projections.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2022	17	ROK	DSL Mariners	—	199	153	48	10	2	4	27	33	16	4	4	314	464	484	948	170	370	17	14	422	181	+18	-1	—	—	+6	2.4
2023	18	A	Modesto Nuts	—	265	209	49	17	3	2	36	53	18	5	3	234	392	373	765	139	301	20	14	353	129	+9	-0	—	—	+8	1.6
2024	19	A+	Everett AquaSox	—	290	241	70	15	2	12	34	75	11	10	5	290	402	519	921	228	367	26	12	401	165	+21	+0	—	—	+8	3.0
2024	19	A	Modesto Nuts	—	302	244	68	11	5	11	39	61	15	8	1	279	409	500	909	221	324	20	13	399	163	+22	+1	—	—	+9	3.2
2025	20	AA	Arkansas Travelers	—	250	208	53	10	1	2	30	39	11	9	3	255	378	341	719	87	304	16	12	335	115	+4	+1	—	—	+7	1.2
2025	20	A+	Everett AquaSox	—	306	242	65	14	0	15	39	65	25	3	2	269	422	512	934	244	309	21	13	416	177	+26	-0	—	—	+9	3.6

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Top row of each card is career totals; bottom row is per-162-game rates. Pool: 727 completed hitter careers (2000-2024).

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	YRS	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Asdrúbal Cabreralast yr '21 career totals — 15 seasons, 7,401 PA	15	7,401	195	91	266	329	423	+58	+11	38.2	32.2
	/162	664	17	8	266	329	423	+5.2	+1.0	3.4	pk7: 26
#2Dan Ugglalast yr '15 career totals — 10 seasons, 5,509 PA	10	5,509	235	26	241	336	447	+20	-17	28.7	28.7
#2Dan Ugglalast yr '15 career totals — 10 seasons, 5,509 PA	/162	664	28	3	241	336	447	+2.4	-2.1	3.5	pk7: 29
#3Ian Desmondlast yr '19 career totals — 11 seasons, 5,944 PA	11	5,944	181	181	263	315	427	+30	-4	25.8	24.9
	/162	664	20	20	263	315	427	+3.3	-0.4	2.9	pk7: 24
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 11 projected seasons	11	6,335	204	125	239	316	399	+61	-20	26.9	22.4
	/162	664	21	13	239	316	399	+6.4	-2.1	2.8	pk7: 18
#4Jason Kipnislast yr '20 career totals — 10 seasons, 4,984 PA	10	4,984	126	136	260	333	416	+18	-11	22.6	21.9
	/162	664	17	18	260	333	416	+2.4	-1.4	3.0	pk7: 21
#5Didi Gregoriuslast yr '22 career totals — 10 seasons, 4,238 PA	10	4,238	134	37	256	308	421	+45	-10	17.0	17.2
	/162	664	21	6	256	308	421	+7.1	-1.5	2.7	pk7: 18
#6Bill Halllast yr '11 career totals — 9 seasons, 3,621 PA	9	3,621	123	62	249	308	437	+22	+7	15.9	16.6
#6Bill Halllast yr '11 career totals — 9 seasons, 3,621 PA	/162	664	23	11	249	308	437	+4.1	+1.3	2.9	pk7: 17

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Michael Arroyo (OGILVIE)	21	44→54	47→52	50→49	59	247/318/404	157	291	17	22	22%	6%	100	+2.4	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
●Alejandro Kirk 2021 · MLB	22	51→57	45→50	49→40	54	248/322/382	134	283	11	5	16%	9%	101	+1.8	258/337/397	139	278	16	2	13%	10%	111	+2.5	262/347/393	131	276	16	0	11%	11%	111	+1.7
✕Addison Russell 2015 · AA	21	47→52	50→55	52→50	44	239/300/400	161	302	18	13	26%	7%	96	+1.5	239/305/397	158	301	17	7	25%	8%	98	+1.6	237/308/399	162	294	18	5	25%	8%	94	+1.1
●Luis Urías 2020 · MLB	23	48→58	47→55	47→45	48	237/314/374	137	295	14	6	24%	8%	95	+1.4	241/325/402	161	291	19	6	23%	9%	108	+2.3	232/333/399	167	273	21	3	22%	11%	108	+1.7
●Zach Neto 2023 · AA	22	49→48	47→60	49→55	41	242/301/379	137	306	14	12	25%	5%	92	+1.2	249/319/435	186	302	22	19	25%	6%	115	+2.7	247/321/459	212	303	27	25	27%	7%	117	+2.6
●Miguel Vargas 2022 · AA	22	50→53	52→55	51→50	44	256/304/419	164	299	20	9	22%	6%	103	+1.9	229/306/389	160	271	17	12	22%	9%	96	+1.5	221/322/407	185	244	21	11	19%	12%	106	+1.7
★Troy Tulowitzki 2007 · MLB	22	50→57	47→60	46→50	47	248/308/388	140	293	14	8	20%	7%	96	+1.5	274/343/451	177	312	19	8	18%	9%	127	+3.6	282/358/481	198	314	22	9	17%	10%	135	+4.1
●Derek Norris 2010 · A	21	43→53	51→55	45→50	48	223/303/383	161	292	19	5	30%	10%	94	+1.3	207/305/377	170	279	21	9	31%	11%	94	+1.3	261/339/417	156	319	16	5	22%	10%	113	+1.9
●Sean Rodríguez 2007 · AA	22	46→49	52→60	48→50	46	235/306/406	171	300	20	12	28%	8%	101	+1.8	230/301/408	178	293	21	10	28%	7%	99	+1.7	237/310/439	202	292	25	12	27%	7%	107	+1.7
✕Carter Kieboom 2019 · AA	21	47→50	48→50	47→45	43	235/289/374	140	300	16	7	27%	6%	85	+0.7	228/311/352	124	302	14	5	27%	9%	89	+1.0	218/316/334	116	287	14	3	27%	10%	83	+0.3
●Gleyber Torres 2018 · AAA	21	49→53	45→60	46→50	44	235/295/364	129	315	11	14	28%	7%	84	+0.6	260/326/451	191	309	25	8	24%	8%	121	+3.2	259/345/399	140	294	17	6	17%	11%	113	+2.9
✕Dilson Herrera 2015 · MLB	21	51→57	47→50	50	42	251/298/394	143	320	14	12	26%	6%	93	+1.3	244/293/381	137	303	15	12	24%	6%	88	+0.9	235/285/368	133	288	16	10	24%	6%	77	+0.1
●Brandon Phillips 2003 · MLB	22	49→59	47→55	51→55	51	243/318/389	146	286	13	9	20%	8%	101	+1.8	219/265/337	118	260	12	8	20%	5%	65	-0.7	272/324/453	181	288	22	25	14%	6%	115	+3.0
●Elijah Dukes 2006 · AA	22	50→52	51→55	50	45	255/305/417	161	301	19	16	22%	6%	102	+1.9	247/330/419	172	290	19	14	21%	10%	114	+2.7	236/343/411	176	277	18	13	21%	13%	114	+1.7
●Gary Sánchez 2014 · AA	21	43→50	48→65	47→45	40	222/272/361	139	282	16	6	27%	5%	74	-0.1	241/291/400	159	294	20	6	25%	6%	92	+1.2	240/315/464	224	265	32	4	23%	9%	117	+2.4
●Jonathan Schoop 2013 · AA	21	47→57	44→60	44→45	44	231/282/351	120	278	11	6	21%	6%	76	+0.0	226/267/366	140	275	17	4	24%	4%	73	-0.1	265/304/452	186	306	25	1	22%	4%	111	+2.3
✕Kelvin Diaz 2008 · A	21	52	47→50	44→45	49	255/327/393	138	287	14	7	16%	7%	106	+2.2	231/292/351	120	283	10	9	21%	6%	80	+0.4	224/279/357	134	275	10	13	22%	4%	76	+0.0
●Adam Jones 2006 · AA	20	51→55	47→60	48→50	43	251/307/395	144	323	14	10	26%	6%	98	+1.6	245/294/397	152	311	16	12	26%	5%	92	+1.2	273/312/463	190	303	25	11	19%	4%	115	+3.2
●Jordan Diaz 2022 · A	21	49→56	49→55	41→30	44	247/294/394	147	294	17	5	22%	6%	92	+1.2	262/302/432	170	303	22	2	21%	5%	105	+2.1	263/306/436	173	301	23	0	21%	5%	104	+1.7
●Josmil Pinto 2010 · A	21	45→55	49→55	47→40	44	228/278/377	149	272	16	3	23%	6%	81	+0.4	214/260/348	134	265	14	2	24%	5%	66	-0.6	251/317/419	167	299	19	0	22%	8%	105	+1.7
●Angel Salome 2007 · A	21	52→62	46→50	47→45	44	255/293/389	134	292	13	6	18%	5%	90	+1.0	275/311/411	136	324	13	4	19%	5%	103	+1.9	290/327/428	138	344	13	2	19%	5%	113	+1.5