Michael Arroyo

SS Arkansas Travelers
Age 22 R/R 5'10" / 160 lbs AA K +7%HR -5% Svc 0.128 · Ctrl thru 2032
Overview
AA40-MANROOKIEPre-ArbFA 2033
YearAgeLvl / TeamPAAVG/OBP/SLGHRSBwRC+WARMLE AVG/OBP/SLG
202419A+/A2 orgs592.285/.406/.5092318101—.230/.330/.398
202520AA/A+SEA556.262/.402/.433171295—.218/.341/.356
202621AAA/AASEA532.283/.365/.471181799—.248/.317/.398
202621MLBSEA41.371/.450/.514121721.1
2027PROJ14% MLB22MLBSEA29.252/.327/.396111070.1
2028PROJ54% MLB23MLBSEA324.255/.331/.410981121.5
2029PROJ68% MLB24MLBSEA414.257/.333/.41812111152.1
Last 3 seasons WAR 1.1  ·  Next 3 projected WAR 3.7Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.
ContractESTIMATED
Control thru2032Service0.128First FA2033
2027Pre-Arb$0.8M2028Pre-Arb$0.8M2029Pre-Arb$0.8M2030Arb-1$8M2031Arb-2$14M2032Arb-3$20M
Skills · percentileMiLB Statcast 2026 AAA
Speed87
K%82
Z-Con%69
Whiff%68
Max EV51
BB%27
Form.262/.344/.409 ▲ rolling true talent (60d window) · proj .254/.327/.402
Career WAR4.1 WAR median (P10 -0.7 / P90 54, comp-based) · star 14% · didn't stick 48%
CompsVaughn Grissom (age 22) · Bo Bichette (age 22) · Alejandro Kirk (age 22)
2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONstats below = full-season projection
showingPROJ
wRC+†107
AVG/OBP/SLG.252 / .327 / .396
PA29
HR1
K%17
BB%7
BABIP290
ISO154
MLB%14%
Value2027 · WAR
BAT: +1.8 runs (wOBA-derived runs vs avg)+2BATRUN: +1.1 runs (SB/CS + UBR baserunning)+1RUNFLD: -0.9 runs (Defensive runs vs avg)-1FLDPOS: +2.2 runs (Positional adjustment)+2POSREP: +4.5 runs (Replacement-level credit)+5REPTotal WAR: +1.00+1.0WAR
0.01.53.00.11.52.12.32.42.227282930313233343536
━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control+$41M ctrl surplus
Tools · Recent Form · Contract
ToolsStatcast %ile · 2026
CONTACT
xAVG
900.323
POWER
Barrel%
123.3
Avg EV
4688.8
SPEED
Sprint
6828.2
Recent Formrolling true talent ⓘ
K%17%▲15% over 41 PA (60d) · proj 19%
BB%8%▲12% over 41 PA (60d) · proj 7%
ISO.147·.143 over 35 AB (60d) · proj .148
HR/BB3.6%·3.3% over 30 BBE (60d) · proj 3.7%
BABIP.297▲.414 over 29 BIP (60d) · proj .292
SLASH.262/.344/.409▲proj .254/.327/.402
Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)
Status   Pre-Arb
MLB Debut   2026
Service   0.128 yrs.days
Team Control Through   2032
First FA Year   2033
YearStatusSalary Proj WAR Value Surplus
2027Pre-Arb$0.8M+0.1$0.6M+$0.0M (cut)
2028Pre-Arb$0.8M+1.5$11M+$10M
2029Pre-Arb$0.8M+2.1$14M+$14M
2030Arb-1$8M+2.3$15M+$9M
2031Arb-2$14M+2.4$14M+$5M
2032Arb-3$20M+2.2$12M+$0.2M
Totals $44M $67M +$38M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.
basis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

YearAge LvlTeam MLB% PAAB H2B3BHR BBSOHBP SBCS AVGOBPSLGOPS ISOBABIP K%BB% wOBAwRC+ BATRUNFLDPOSREP WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
202217 ROKDSL Mariners — 199153 481024 273316 44 314464484948 170370 1714 422 75 — — — — — —
202318 AModesto Nuts — 265209 491732 365318 53 234392373765 139301 2014 353 81 — — — — — —
202419 A+Everett AquaSox — 290241 7015212 347511 105 290402519921 228367 2612 401 95 — — — — — —
202419 AModesto Nuts — 302244 6811511 396115 81 279409500909 221324 2013 399 106 — — — — — —
202520 AAArkansas Travelers — 250208 531012 303911 93 255378341719 87304 1612 335 86 — — — — — —
202520 A+Everett AquaSox — 306242 6514015 396525 32 269422512934 244309 2113 416 103 — — — — — —
202621 MLBSeattle Mariners — 4135 13201 560 20 371450514964 143414 1512 419 172 +4 +0 +0 +6 +1 1.1
202621 AAATacoma Rainiers — 235202 561148 19388 42 277362490853 213296 168 367 103 — — — — — —
202621 AAArkansas Travelers — 297261 7512110 24499 132 287367456823 169317 168 364 95 — — — — — —
▸ Career Totals (raw MLB only — historical actual)
MLB Career— — 4135 13201 560 20 371450514964 143414 1512 419 170 +3 +0 +0 +6 +1 1.1
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
202217 ROK MLEDSL Mariners — 199162 33712 184116 44 204342296638 93236 219 279 75 — — — — — —
202318 A MLEModesto Nuts — 265219 441422 267018 53 201335311645 110272 2610 288 81 — — — — — —
202419 A+ MLEEverett AquaSox — 290252 571128 2310111 105 226318381699 155324 358 308 95 — — — — — —
202419 A MLEModesto Nuts — 302256 608410 278415 81 234342414756 180287 289 325 106 — — — — — —
202520 AA MLEArkansas Travelers — 250215 49912 234511 93 228333307640 79279 189 295 86 — — — — — —
202520 A+ MLEEverett AquaSox — 306253 5311012 289225 32 209346395742 186270 309 321 103 — — — — — —
202621 MLB MLESeattle Mariners — 4135 13201 560 20 371450514964 143414 1512 423 172 +4 +0 +0 +6 +1 1.1
202621 AAA MLETacoma Rainiers — 235207 51946 14468 42 246319415734 169270 206 320 103 — — — — — —
202621 AA MLEArkansas Travelers — 297268 671018 17609 132 250316384701 134284 206 308 95 — — — — — —
202217 ROK MLEDSL Mariners — 199162 33712 184116 44 204342296638 93254 219 279 75 — — — — — —
202217 ROK RAWDSL Mariners — 199153 481024 273316 44 314464484948 170370 1714 422 75 — — — — — —
202318 A MLEModesto Nuts — 265219 441422 267018 53 201335311645 110282 2610 288 81 — — — — — —
202318 A RAWModesto Nuts — 265209 491732 365318 53 234392373765 139301 2014 353 81 — — — — — —
202419 A MLE2 teams — 592507 11820618 5118526 186 233334402736 170321 319 317 100 — — — — — —
202419 A RAW2 teams — 592485 13826723 7313626 186 285406509915 225344 2312 400 100 — — — — — —
202520 A+ MLE2 teams — 556467 10421114 5213736 125 223346362708 139284 259 309 95 — — — — — —
202520 A+ RAW2 teams — 556450 11824117 6910436 125 262402433835 171306 1912 380 95 — — — — — —
202621 AA MLE3 teams — 573511 13222515 3511117 194 258327409736 151296 196 321 103 — — — — — —
202621 AA RAW3 teams — 573498 14425519 489317 194 289371474845 185316 168 369 103 — — — — — —
202217 ROK MLEDSL Mariners — 199163 33712 184116 44 202342294636 92236 219 279 75 — — — — — —
202318 A MLEModesto Nuts — 265219 441422 267018 53 201335311645 110272 2610 288 81 — — — — — —
202419 A MLE2 teams — 592510 11820618 5118526 186 231334400734 169305 319 317 100 — — — — — —
202520 A+ MLE2 teams — 556463 10421114 5213736 125 225346365711 140274 259 309 95 — — — — — —
202621 AA MLE3 teams — 573516 13222515 3511117 194 256327405732 149288 196 321 103 — — — — — —
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons)
202419 A MLE2 teams — 592510 11820618 5118526 186 231334400734 169305 319 317 100 — — — — — —
202520 A+ MLE2 teams — 556463 10421114 5213736 125 225346365711 140274 259 309 95 — — — — — —
202621 AA MLE3 teams — 573516 13222515 3511117 194 256327405732 149288 196 321 103 — — — — — —
▸ 2027 season
▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability)
202722 MLB MLESEA 14% 648578 14725517 4512220 174 254329402731 148292 197 327 107 +6 +2 -3 +7 +14 1.0
▸ 2027 — real world (MLB)
202722 MLB CTXSEA 14% 2926 6101 251 10 252327396723 144290 177 324 107 +0 +0 -0 +0 +1 0.1
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
202823 MLB MLESEA 54% 599533 13823418 4311118 163 258333416749 158293 197 334 112 +9 +2 -2 +6 +13 2.8
202924 MLB MLESEA 68% 614546 14224419 4511418 164 260336424760 164294 197 338 115 +11 +2 -2 +7 +13 3.1
203025 MLB MLESEA 74% 614546 14224420 4611417 164 260336427763 167294 197 339 116 +11 +2 -2 +7 +13 3.1
203126 MLB MLESEA 77% 614547 14224420 4611616 154 260336427763 167294 197 339 115 +11 +1 -2 +7 +13 3.1
203227 MLB MLESEA 76% 606539 13924419 4611616 153 258334423758 165293 198 337 114 +10 +2 -2 +6 +13 3.0
203328 MLB MLESEA 76% 592527 13523418 4511515 123 256332419751 163293 198 334 112 +9 +1 -3 +6 +13 2.7
203429 MLB MLESEA 74% 571509 12822317 4311214 102 254330413743 159292 208 331 110 +7 +1 -3 +6 +12 2.3
203530 MLB MLESEA 73% 555495 12421316 4111114 72 251326406732 154290 207 326 107 +5 +1 -4 +6 +12 2.0
203631 MLB MLESEA 73% 536479 11820315 3910913 31 247322396718 149288 207 321 103 +2 +0 -5 +6 +12 1.5
203732 MLB MLESEA 72% 512458 11219314 3710712 21 242316384699 142284 217 313 98 -1 +0 -5 +5 +11 1.0
203833 MLB MLESEA 72% 476428 10016212 3410211 21 236308369677 133280 217 304 92 -5 +0 -6 +5 +10 0.5
203934 MLB MLESEA 68% 419378 8613210 29939 10 228299351650 123274 227 293 84 -8 +0 -6 +4 +9 -0.0
202823 MLB CTXSEA 54% 324288 731229 236010 82 255331410741 154291 197 330 112 +5 +1 -1 +3 +7 1.5
202924 MLB CTXSEA 68% 414369 9516312 307712 112 257333418751 160291 197 334 115 +7 +1 -1 +4 +9 2.1
203025 MLB CTXSEA 74% 453403 10418314 348413 123 258334421755 163291 198 336 116 +8 +1 -2 +5 +10 2.3
203126 MLB CTXSEA 77% 471420 10818315 358913 123 257333420754 163291 197 335 115 +9 +1 -2 +5 +10 2.4
203227 MLB CTXSEA 76% 463413 10518314 358912 113 255332417749 162291 198 333 114 +8 +1 -2 +5 +10 2.2
203328 MLB CTXSEA 76% 451402 10217314 348712 92 254330413743 159290 198 331 112 +7 +1 -2 +5 +10 2.0
203429 MLB CTXSEA 74% 425379 9616313 328311 72 252327407734 155289 208 327 110 +5 +1 -3 +5 +9 1.7
203530 MLB CTXSEA 73% 407364 9015212 308110 51 249324400724 151288 207 323 107 +3 +1 -3 +4 +9 1.4
203631 MLB CTXSEA 73% 390348 8514211 297910 21 245319390710 145285 207 317 103 +1 +0 -3 +4 +8 1.1
203732 MLB CTXSEA 72% 370331 8013210 27779 21 240313378692 138282 217 310 98 -1 +0 -4 +4 +8 0.7
203833 MLB CTXSEA 72% 343308 721228 24738 11 234306363670 130278 217 301 92 -3 -0 -4 +4 +7 0.3
203934 MLB CTXSEA 68% 283255 57916 20636 10 226297346643 120272 227 290 84 -5 +0 -4 +3 +6 -0.0
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career— A+C — 48354315 108018029139 358948126 8321 250326402728 152289 207 325 105 +47 +8 -31 +58 +105 19.0
/ 162G— A+C — 650580 14524419 4812717 113 250326403729 153288 207 325 105 +6 +1 -4 +8 +14 2.6
Career— MLE — 91038038 198534556255 6911903292 17851 247329399728 152291 218 323 105 +65 +13 -44 +80 +151 27.0
/ 162G— MLE — 650574 14225418 4913621 134 247329399728 152292 218 323 105 +6 +1 -4 +7 +14 2.5

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 AAArkansas Travelers · 297 PAwOBA .357 → .308 (−49)K% 16.5% → 20.1%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA16.50%÷1.000×1.220——20.13%
BB% (unintentional) /PA7.74%÷1.000×0.700—×1.0425.65%
HBP% /PA3.03%—×0.870—×1.0422.75%
Singles /BIP24.53%÷1.000×0.920×0.958×1.04222.52%
Doubles /BIP5.66%÷1.000×0.840×0.958×1.0424.75%
Triples /BIP0.47%÷1.000×0.940×0.958×1.0420.44%
Home runs /BIP4.72%÷1.000×0.800—×1.0423.93%

Factors used: league row TL. Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 24.8 → +4.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.958.

Result: wOBA .357 → .308; ISO .169 → .142; BABIP .317 → .284. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2026 AAATacoma Rainiers · 235 PAwOBA .367 → .320 (−46)K% 16.2% → 19.4%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA16.17%÷1.000×1.200——19.40%
BB% (unintentional) /PA8.09%÷1.000×0.690—×1.0505.86%
HBP% /PA3.40%—×0.940—×1.0503.36%
Singles /BIP20.12%÷1.000×0.930×0.964×1.05018.95%
Doubles /BIP6.71%÷1.000×0.830×0.964×1.0505.64%
Triples /BIP2.44%÷1.000×0.970×0.964×1.0502.40%
Home runs /BIP4.88%÷1.000×0.700—×1.0503.59%

Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 27.2 → +5.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (5.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.964.

Result: wOBA .367 → .320; ISO .213 → .176; BABIP .296 → .270. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 A+Everett AquaSox · 306 PAwOBA .406 → .321 (−85)K% 21.2% → 30.0%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA21.24%÷0.957×1.350——29.95%
BB% (unintentional) /PA12.75%÷0.999×0.710—×1.0279.30%
HBP% /PA8.17%—×0.810—×1.0276.80%
Singles /BIP20.34%÷1.001×0.910×0.963×1.02718.29%
Doubles /BIP7.91%÷0.955×0.830×0.963×1.0276.80%
Triples /BIP0.00%÷1.150×0.820×0.963×1.0270.00%
Home runs /BIP8.47%÷1.036×0.830—×1.0276.97%

Factors used: level-wide A+ factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 107, 1B 100, 2B 91, 3B 130, K 91, BB 100 — applied at half strength. Age: age 21 vs a level average of 22.8 → +2.7% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.963.

Result: wOBA .406 → .321; ISO .244 → .189; BABIP .309 → .270. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 AAArkansas Travelers · 250 PAwOBA .329 → .295 (−33)K% 15.6% → 17.9%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA15.60%÷1.061×1.220——17.93%
BB% (unintentional) /PA12.00%÷0.950×0.700—×1.0509.29%
HBP% /PA4.40%—×0.870—×1.0504.02%
Singles /BIP23.67%÷0.998×0.920×0.950×1.05021.76%
Doubles /BIP5.92%÷0.914×0.840×0.950×1.0505.43%
Triples /BIP0.59%÷1.018×0.940×0.950×1.0500.55%
Home runs /BIP1.18%÷0.800×0.800—×1.0501.24%

Factors used: league row TL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 60, 1B 100, 2B 83, 3B 104, K 112, BB 90 — applied at half strength. Age: age 21 vs a level average of 24.8 → +5.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.

Result: wOBA .329 → .295; ISO .087 → .085; BABIP .304 → .279. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 AModesto Nuts · 302 PAwOBA .394 → .325 (−69)K% 20.2% → 27.7%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA20.20%÷0.993×1.360——27.66%
BB% (unintentional) /PA12.91%÷1.010×0.690—×1.0309.09%
HBP% /PA4.97%—×0.780—×1.0303.99%
Singles /BIP22.40%÷0.970×0.920×0.961×1.03021.03%
Doubles /BIP6.01%÷1.076×0.830×0.961×1.0304.59%
Triples /BIP2.73%÷1.150×0.910×0.961×1.0302.14%
Home runs /BIP6.01%÷0.897×0.800—×1.0305.52%

Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 79, 1B 94, 2B 115, 3B 130, K 99, BB 102 — applied at half strength. Age: age 20 vs a level average of 22.0 → +3.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.0 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.961.

Result: wOBA .394 → .325; ISO .221 → .187; BABIP .324 → .287. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 A+Everett AquaSox · 290 PAwOBA .396 → .308 (−88)K% 25.9% → 34.8%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA25.86%÷1.003×1.350——34.82%
BB% (unintentional) /PA11.72%÷1.082×0.710—×1.0428.02%
HBP% /PA3.79%—×0.810—×1.0423.20%
Singles /BIP24.70%÷0.992×0.910×0.977×1.04223.05%
Doubles /BIP9.04%÷1.040×0.830×0.977×1.0427.34%
Triples /BIP1.20%÷0.904×0.820×0.977×1.0421.11%
Home runs /BIP7.23%÷1.175×0.830—×1.0425.32%

Factors used: level-wide A+ factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 135, 1B 98, 2B 108, 3B 81, K 101, BB 116 — applied at half strength. Age: age 20 vs a level average of 22.8 → +4.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.977.

Result: wOBA .396 → .308; ISO .228 → .166; BABIP .367 → .324. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 AModesto Nuts · 265 PAwOBA .348 → .288 (−60)K% 20.0% → 26.5%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA20.00%÷1.026×1.360——26.51%
BB% (unintentional) /PA13.58%÷1.013×0.690—×1.0459.67%
HBP% /PA6.79%—×0.780—×1.0455.54%
Singles /BIP17.31%÷0.974×0.920×0.982×1.04516.79%
Doubles /BIP10.90%÷1.050×0.830×0.982×1.0458.84%
Triples /BIP1.92%÷1.150×0.910×0.982×1.0451.56%
Home runs /BIP1.28%÷0.883×0.800—×1.0451.21%

Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 77, 1B 95, 2B 110, 3B 130, K 105, BB 103 — applied at half strength. Age: age 19 vs a level average of 22.0 → +4.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.0 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.982.

Result: wOBA .348 → .288; ISO .139 → .115; BABIP .301 → .272. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 DSLDSL Mariners · 199 PAwOBA .418 → .279 (−139)K% 16.6% → 20.7%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA16.58%÷0.977×1.220——20.71%
BB% (unintentional) /PA13.57%÷1.055×0.700—×1.0089.07%
HBP% /PA8.04%—×0.700—×1.0085.67%
Singles /BIP26.67%÷0.991×0.680×0.964×1.00817.77%
Doubles /BIP8.33%÷0.953×0.600×0.964×1.0085.09%
Triples /BIP1.67%÷1.105×0.600×0.964×1.0080.88%
Home runs /BIP3.33%÷1.015×0.470—×1.0081.56%

Factors used: level-wide DSL factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 103, 1B 98, 2B 91, 3B 121, K 95, BB 111 — applied at half strength. Age: age 18 vs a level average of 18.5 → +0.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.5 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.964.

Result: wOBA .418 → .279; ISO .170 → .097; BABIP .370 → .236. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).