Michael Arroyo — OGILVIE

Michael ArroyoSS Arkansas Travelers

Age 21 R/R 5'10" / 160 lbs AA HR +3% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2033 peak 3.0 · 2031

wRC+†81

AVG/OBP/SLG.212 / .310 / .350

PA320

HR8

SB6

K%28

BB%8

MLB%6%

Scouting · now → future

HIT

35↗53

PWR

47↗52

SPD

51↘48

FLD

36↗44

EYE

49↗61

trajectory · 10 yrs

3.6peak

2031

Contract

ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2028

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2033

First FA Year 2034

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2028
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2028
2028	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+2.1	$18M	+$17M
2029	Arb-1	$0.8M	+2.6	$23M	+$22M
2030	Arb-2	$0.9M	+2.9	$26M	+$25M
2031	Arb-3	$6M	+3.0	$28M	+$22M
2032	Ext / FA-deal	$11M	+3.0	$29M	+$18M
2033	Ext / FA-deal	$15M	+2.9	$29M	+$14M
Totals		$34M		$152M	+$117M

Career Projections (MLE)

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2022	17	ROK	DSL Mariners	199	165	38	8	1	3	15	50	16	4	4	.230	.352	.345	.697	.115	.304	25	8	.305	92	-2	-1	+0	+2	+6	0.5
2023	18	A	Modesto Nuts	265	220	42	13	2	2	25	70	18	5	3	.191	.323	.295	.619	.105	.267	26	9	.277	70	-9	-0	+0	+3	+8	0.1
2024	19	A	2 teams	592	511	111	18	4	19	47	187	26	18	6	.217	.315	.380	.695	.162	.294	32	8	.299	87	-8	+1	+0	+6	+17	1.6
2025	20	A+	2 teams	556	472	97	19	1	13	47	143	36	12	5	.206	.324	.333	.657	.127	.265	26	8	.290	80	-12	+0	+0	+6	+16	1.0
▸ 2026 Season (actual · ROS · total)
2026	21	AA	Arkansas Travelers	79	72	14	3	0	3	4	27	3	2	1	.194	.266	.361	.627	.167	.262	34	5	.268	63	-3	+0	+0	+1	+2	-0.0
ROS	21	MLB	SEA	241	210	45	9	1	7	19	70	10	4	2	.214	.310	.367	.676	.152	.279	29	8	.299	87	-4	+0	-2	+3	+7	0.4
TOT	21	MLB	SEA	320	282	59	12	1	10	23	97	13	6	3	.209	.299	.365	.664	.156	.278	30	7	.291	81	-7	+0	-2	+3	+9	0.4
▸ 2027+ Projections — Projections at projected PA · Park-neutral MLB equivalent · Marcel + aging curve
2027	22	MLB 24%	SEA	606	527	116	23	2	17	51	160	23	12	5	.220	.316	.368	.684	.148	.277	26	8	.308	94	-4	+0	-5	+6	+17	1.5
2028	23	MLB 45%	SEA	654	568	127	25	2	19	57	169	24	13	5	.224	.320	.375	.695	.151	.280	26	9	.315	100	-0	+1	-5	+7	+19	2.1
2029	24	MLB 60%	SEA	674	585	134	26	3	21	61	170	23	14	5	.229	.326	.391	.717	.162	.282	25	9	.322	104	+3	+1	-5	+7	+19	2.6
2030	25	MLB 77%	SEA	687	595	137	26	3	22	63	172	24	14	5	.230	.328	.395	.723	.165	.283	25	9	.326	107	+6	+1	-5	+7	+19	2.9
2031	26	MLB 92%	SEA	695	601	140	27	3	23	65	174	24	14	5	.233	.332	.403	.735	.170	.284	25	9	.328	109	+7	+1	-5	+7	+20	3.0
2032	27	MLB	SEA	695	600	139	26	3	23	66	174	24	14	5	.232	.332	.400	.732	.168	.284	25	9	.328	109	+7	+1	-5	+7	+20	3.0
2033	28	MLB	SEA	691	596	137	26	2	23	66	175	24	13	4	.230	.331	.396	.727	.166	.283	25	10	.327	108	+6	+1	-6	+7	+20	2.9
2034	29	MLB	SEA	681	587	134	26	2	22	66	174	23	11	4	.228	.330	.392	.722	.164	.283	26	10	.325	107	+5	+1	-7	+7	+19	2.6
2035	30	MLB	SEA	670	577	130	25	2	21	65	174	23	10	3	.225	.328	.385	.713	.159	.281	26	10	.322	104	+3	+1	-7	+7	+19	2.4
2036	31	MLB	SEA	656	566	126	24	2	20	63	173	22	7	2	.223	.324	.378	.702	.155	.280	26	10	.318	102	+1	+1	-8	+7	+19	2.0
2037	32	MLB	SEA	638	551	121	23	2	19	61	171	21	5	1	.220	.321	.372	.693	.152	.278	27	10	.313	98	-1	+1	-8	+7	+18	1.6
2038	33	MLB	SEA	608	525	113	21	2	17	58	167	20	3	0	.215	.317	.360	.677	.145	.277	27	10	.308	94	-4	+1	-9	+7	+17	1.2
2039	34	MLB	SEA	560	483	102	19	2	15	53	159	19	2	0	.211	.314	.352	.665	.141	.275	28	9	.301	89	-7	+0	-9	+6	+16	0.6
2040	35	MLB	SEA	502	434	88	16	1	13	47	148	16	1	0	.203	.304	.334	.638	.131	.273	29	9	.294	83	-10	+0	-9	+5	+14	0.1
2041	36	MLB	SEA	440	382	75	14	1	10	41	134	14	1	0	.196	.297	.317	.614	.120	.270	30	9	.285	76	-12	+0	-10	+5	+12	-0.4
2042	37	MLB	SEA	374	325	62	11	1	8	34	118	12	1	0	.191	.291	.305	.596	.114	.267	32	9	.275	69	-13	+0	-10	+4	+11	-0.8
▸ Career Totals (MLE all levels + projections)
Career	—			11684	10080	2214	425	42	337	1070	3132	442	178	64	.220	.321	.370	.692	.151	.281	27	9	.311	96	-48	+10	-114	+125	+331	31.0
/ 162G	—			650	561	123	24	2	19	60	174	25	10	4	.219	.322	.371	.693	.152	.280	27	9	.311	96	-3	+0	-6	+7	+18	1.7

Historical Stats — Raw (Per Stint)

Actual MLB + MiLB stats as they happened, one row per stint at each level. Use this to see what really got recorded; the table above shows MLB-equivalent translations + projections.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2022	17	ROK	DSL Mariners	199	153	48	10	2	4	27	33	16	4	4	.314	.464	.484	.948	.170	.370	17	14	.422	181	+18	-1	—	—	+6	2.4
2023	18	A	Modesto Nuts	265	209	49	17	3	2	36	53	18	5	3	.234	.392	.373	.765	.139	.301	20	14	.353	129	+9	-0	—	—	+8	1.6
2024	19	A+	Everett AquaSox	290	241	70	15	2	12	34	75	11	10	5	.290	.402	.519	.921	.228	.367	26	12	.401	165	+21	+0	—	—	+8	3.0
2024	19	A	Modesto Nuts	302	244	68	11	5	11	39	61	15	8	1	.279	.409	.500	.909	.221	.324	20	13	.399	163	+22	+1	—	—	+9	3.2
2025	20	AA	Arkansas Travelers	250	208	53	10	1	2	30	39	11	9	3	.255	.378	.341	.719	.087	.304	16	12	.335	115	+4	+1	—	—	+7	1.2
2025	20	A+	Everett AquaSox	306	242	65	14	0	15	39	65	25	3	2	.269	.422	.512	.934	.244	.309	21	13	.416	177	+26	-0	—	—	+9	3.6

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Michael Arroyo (OGILVIE)	21	35→53	47→52	51→48	61	.212/.310/.350	.138	.283	8	6	28%	8%	90	+0.6	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
●Derek Norris 2010 · A	21	42→52	52→55	45→50	47	.217/.293/.381	.164	.280	20	5	29%	9%	89	+0.9	.205/.301/.370	.165	.275	20	8	31%	11%	90	+1.0	.254/.332/.403	.149	.311	15	5	22%	10%	106	+1.6
●Logan O'Hoppe 2022 · AAA	22	43→48	49→60	46→45	43	.224/.274/.364	.140	.267	17	7	24%	6%	76	+0.1	.237/.307/.418	.181	.277	25	6	24%	8%	105	+2.1	.241/.314/.433	.192	.284	28	4	25%	8%	109	+1.6
●Gary Sánchez 2014 · AA	21	42→51	49→65	47→45	40	.219/.269/.362	.143	.281	17	6	28%	5%	73	-0.1	.239/.289/.387	.148	.294	18	6	24%	6%	89	+0.9	.232/.315/.480	.248	.254	37	1	26%	9%	119	+2.3
●Addison Russell 2015 · AA	21	48→52	51→55	54→50	44	.240/.301/.407	.166	.305	18	14	27%	7%	98	+1.6	.242/.307/.404	.162	.305	18	7	26%	8%	101	+1.8	.241/.312/.408	.167	.299	18	5	25%	8%	96	+1.3
●Jonathan India 2019 · A	22	43→51	45→50	51→50	45	.208/.290/.333	.125	.296	12	10	32%	8%	76	+0.0	.217/.304/.340	.123	.297	12	10	29%	9%	83	+0.6	.243/.342/.393	.150	.294	17	11	22%	10%	107	+1.9
●Sean Rodríguez 2007 · AA	22	46→49	52→60	48→50	47	.234/.306/.402	.168	.294	19	12	27%	8%	99	+1.7	.228/.299/.402	.174	.291	21	11	28%	7%	97	+1.5	.238/.311/.439	.201	.293	25	12	27%	7%	107	+1.7
●Zach Neto 2023 · AA	22	49→48	47→60	49→55	41	.240/.300/.376	.136	.307	14	12	26%	6%	90	+1.0	.246/.317/.423	.177	.300	21	19	25%	6%	111	+2.5	.248/.320/.446	.198	.298	25	24	25%	6%	113	+2.3
✕Carter Kieboom 2019 · AA	21	46→54	48→50	46→45	43	.232/.287/.371	.139	.299	15	6	27%	6%	83	+0.6	.229/.309/.355	.126	.300	14	5	27%	9%	89	+1.0	.217/.316/.333	.116	.283	14	3	26%	10%	82	+0.3
●Andy Pages 2021 · A	20	41→51	47→60	46→45	46	.210/.298/.347	.138	.263	15	10	26%	8%	83	+0.6	.215/.301/.412	.197	.284	25	6	32%	9%	101	+1.8	.261/.318/.433	.172	.316	21	10	23%	6%	110	+1.8
✕Agustín Ramírez 2023 · A	21	43→45	45→55	50	43	.213/.273/.339	.126	.289	12	10	30%	7%	69	-0.4	.229/.292/.389	.160	.276	19	13	24%	8%	90	+1.0	.230/.293/.405	.176	.264	22	16	22%	7%	92	+1.1
●Josmil Pinto 2010 · A	21	44→54	47→55	47→40	45	.221/.275/.359	.138	.264	14	4	22%	6%	75	-0.0	.217/.264/.351	.134	.265	14	3	23%	5%	68	-0.5	.254/.321/.415	.161	.304	18	0	22%	8%	105	+1.7
●Brett Lawrie 2010 · AA	20	46→56	45→55	47→55	44	.228/.280/.353	.125	.279	13	12	23%	6%	75	-0.0	.252/.301/.407	.155	.311	13	18	22%	6%	98	+1.6	.264/.316/.431	.166	.317	14	20	20%	6%	106	+2.0
✕Thomas Saggese 2023 · AA	21	45→55	48→55	52→50	39	.224/.274/.367	.143	.310	15	11	32%	6%	76	+0.1	.233/.284/.381	.148	.312	16	9	30%	5%	85	+0.7	.235/.288/.373	.139	.314	16	8	29%	5%	82	+0.4
●Colby Rasmus 2008 · AA	21	43→53	52→60	54→50	45	.225/.291/.400	.174	.276	20	15	26%	7%	93	+1.3	.234/.302/.399	.165	.280	20	13	23%	8%	97	+1.5	.237/.305/.454	.217	.309	28	3	32%	8%	109	+1.8
●Vinnie Catricala 2010 · A	21	46→56	45→55	51→45	43	.228/.278/.355	.126	.272	13	7	21%	5%	75	-0.0	.248/.304/.397	.149	.303	16	7	23%	6%	97	+1.5	.245/.302/.394	.149	.297	16	7	22%	6%	93	+1.2
●Brian Goodwin 2013 · AA	22	46→52	47→60	48→50	48	.228/.298/.366	.138	.291	14	13	26%	8%	87	+0.8	.216/.287/.334	.118	.296	10	14	28%	8%	74	-0.1	.243/.309/.437	.195	.311	23	11	28%	8%	105	+1.3
✕Nick Yorke 2023 · A	21	45→55	48→50	46→55	43	.230/.283/.366	.136	.290	16	9	26%	6%	80	+0.4	.237/.292/.360	.123	.316	13	15	28%	7%	82	+0.5	.246/.301/.362	.116	.327	12	18	27%	7%	82	+0.5
✕Noelvi Marte 2023 · A	21	45→53	49→50	49→55	46	.228/.296/.370	.142	.291	17	15	27%	8%	87	+0.8	.236/.291/.369	.133	.300	14	19	25%	6%	84	+0.6	.241/.288/.377	.137	.301	14	21	24%	5%	83	+0.4
●Dylan Carlson 2020 · AAA	21	43→53	47→55	48→50	46	.219/.289/.359	.140	.282	15	10	27%	8%	81	+0.4	.237/.308/.399	.162	.299	16	8	25%	8%	99	+1.7	.242/.327/.396	.154	.296	14	4	22%	9%	105	+1.6
●Jo Adell 2020 · AAA	21	45→44	50→65	53→50	37	.226/.275/.384	.159	.319	17	11	34%	5%	82	+0.5	.216/.265/.378	.162	.312	20	9	36%	5%	76	+0.1	.218/.285/.446	.228	.252	34	12	29%	7%	101	+1.4

Contract

Career Projections (MLE) Show advanced cols

Historical Stats — Raw (Per Stint)

Career Path Comps

Career Projections (MLE)