Michael Arroyo — OGILVIE

Michael ArroyoSS Arkansas Travelers

Age 21 R/R 5'10" / 160 lbs AA K +7%HR -5% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2032

2026 ROS PROJECTION532 act + 9 ros · stats below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+†93

AVG/OBP/SLG—

PA1

HR0

K%22

BB%11

BABIP273

ISO142

MLB%14%

Value2026 · WAR

2026 MLB RUNS · solid = so far · light = projected ROS (park-applied)

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control+$44M ctrl surplus

Tools · ContractCON 55 / POW 52

Toolsscout grade · Statcast %ile · 2026

CONTACT55

xAVG

580.258

POWER52

Barrel%

9014.3

Avg EV

9093.9

EYE58

scouting grade only

SPEED48

scouting grade only

DEFENSE45

scouting grade only

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2027

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2032

First FA Year 2033

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2027
2027	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.8	$3M	+$2M
2028	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+1.3	$9M	+$8M
2029	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+1.7	$11M	+$10M
2030	Arb-1	$6M	+1.9	$11M	+$7M
2031	Arb-2	$10M	+2.0	$11M	+$5M
2032	Arb-3	$15M	+2.0	$10M	+$2M
Totals		$33M		$55M	+$35M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2022	17	ROK	DSL Mariners	—	199	153	48	10	2	4	27	33	16	4	4	314	464	484	948	170	370	17	14	422	172	+17	-1	—	—	+4	2.1
2023	18	A	Modesto Nuts	—	265	209	49	17	3	2	36	53	18	5	3	234	392	373	765	139	301	20	14	353	125	+8	-0	—	—	+6	1.4
2024	19	A+	Everett AquaSox	—	290	241	70	15	2	12	34	75	11	10	5	290	402	519	921	228	367	26	12	401	158	+20	+0	—	—	+6	2.7
2024	19	A	Modesto Nuts	—	302	244	68	11	5	11	39	61	15	8	1	279	409	500	909	221	324	20	13	399	156	+20	+1	—	—	+7	2.8
2025	20	AA	Arkansas Travelers	—	250	208	53	10	1	2	30	39	11	9	3	255	378	341	719	87	304	16	12	335	113	+4	+1	—	—	+5	1.0
2025	20	A+	Everett AquaSox	—	306	242	65	14	0	15	39	65	25	3	2	269	422	512	934	244	309	21	13	416	168	+25	-0	—	—	+7	3.2
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2022	17	ROK MLE	DSL Mariners	—	199	164	37	7	1	3	16	49	16	4	4	226	352	335	687	110	284	25	8	306	93	-2	-1	—	—	+4	0.2
2023	18	A MLE	Modesto Nuts	—	265	220	42	13	2	2	25	69	18	5	3	191	323	295	619	105	255	26	9	278	74	-8	-0	—	—	+6	-0.3
2024	19	A+ MLE	Everett AquaSox	—	290	255	53	10	2	8	20	105	11	10	5	208	294	357	651	149	294	36	7	280	76	-8	+0	—	—	+6	-0.2
2024	19	A MLE	Modesto Nuts	—	302	256	58	8	3	11	27	82	15	8	1	227	336	410	746	184	274	27	9	324	105	+2	+1	—	—	+7	1.0
2025	20	AA MLE	Arkansas Travelers	—	250	216	49	9	1	2	22	45	11	9	3	227	329	306	635	79	272	18	9	286	80	-6	+1	—	—	+5	-0.0
2025	20	A+ MLE	Everett AquaSox	—	306	257	50	10	0	11	24	95	25	3	2	195	324	362	685	167	248	31	8	296	86	-5	-0	—	—	+7	0.2
2022	17	ROK MLE	DSL Mariners	—	199	164	37	7	1	3	16	49	16	4	4	226	352	335	687	110	296	25	8	306	93	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	17	ROK RAW	DSL Mariners	—	199	153	48	10	2	4	27	33	16	4	4	314	464	484	948	170	370	17	14	422	93	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	18	A MLE	Modesto Nuts	—	265	220	42	13	2	2	25	69	18	5	3	191	323	295	619	105	265	26	9	278	74	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	18	A RAW	Modesto Nuts	—	265	209	49	17	3	2	36	53	18	5	3	234	392	373	765	139	301	20	14	353	74	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	19	A MLE	2 teams	—	592	511	112	18	5	19	47	187	26	18	6	219	317	386	702	166	297	32	8	302	91	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	19	A RAW	2 teams	—	592	485	138	26	7	23	73	136	26	18	6	285	406	509	915	225	344	23	12	400	91	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	20	A+ MLE	2 teams	—	556	473	98	19	1	13	46	140	36	12	5	207	324	334	658	127	265	25	8	292	83	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	20	A+ RAW	2 teams	—	556	450	118	24	1	17	69	104	36	12	5	262	402	433	835	171	306	19	12	380	83	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	17	ROK MLE	DSL Mariners	—	199	165	37	7	1	3	16	49	16	4	4	224	352	333	685	109	284	25	8	306	93	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	18	A MLE	Modesto Nuts	—	265	220	42	13	2	2	25	69	18	5	3	191	323	295	619	105	255	26	9	278	74	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	19	A MLE	2 teams	—	592	514	112	18	5	19	47	187	26	18	6	218	317	383	700	165	284	32	8	302	91	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	20	A+ MLE	2 teams	—	556	469	98	19	1	13	46	140	36	12	5	209	324	337	661	128	259	25	8	292	83	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2023	18	A MLE	Modesto Nuts	—	265	220	42	13	2	2	25	69	18	5	3	191	323	295	619	105	255	26	9	278	74	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	19	A MLE	2 teams	—	592	514	112	18	5	19	47	187	26	18	6	218	317	383	700	165	284	32	8	302	91	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	20	A+ MLE	2 teams	—	556	469	98	19	1	13	46	140	36	12	5	209	324	337	661	128	259	25	8	292	83	—	—	—	—	—	—
YTD	21	AA MLE	SEA	—	532	477	113	19	4	14	29	109	17	17	4	237	304	382	686	145	273	20	5	299	88	-7	+2	+0	+6	+12	1.2
▸ 2026 season
YTD	21	AA RAW	SEA	—	297	261	75	12	1	10	24	49	9	13	2	287	367	456	823	169	317	16	8	364	88	—	—	—	—	—	—
YTD	21	AAA RAW	SEA	—	235	202	56	11	4	8	19	38	8	4	2	277	362	490	853	213	296	16	8	367	88	—	—	—	—	—	—
ROS	21	AA MLE	SEA	14%	9	8	1	0	0	0	1	2	0	0	0	125	222	125	347		275	22	11	306	93	-0	+0	-0	+0	+0	0.0
▸ 2026 season — projected rest
ROS	21	MLB CTX	SEA	14%	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0						273	0	0	277	93	-0	+0	-0	+0	+0	0.0
FULL	21	MLB A+C	SEA	—	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0							0	0	277	89	-0	+0	-0	+0	+0	0.0
TOT	21	AA MLE	SEA	—	541	485	114	19	4	14	30	111	17	17	4	235	303	377	680	142	271	21	6	299	89	-7	+2	-0	+6	+12	1.2
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
2027	22	MLB MLE	SEA	54%	581	520	122	21	4	16	38	126	18	13	4	235	309	383	692	148	276	22	7	310	96	-3	+1	-3	+6	+13	1.4
2028	23	MLB MLE	SEA	71%	609	544	131	23	4	19	42	129	18	13	4	241	316	403	719	162	278	21	7	318	101	+1	+1	-3	+7	+13	1.9
2029	24	MLB MLE	SEA	75%	627	560	136	24	4	20	44	131	18	14	4	243	318	407	725	164	279	21	7	323	105	+4	+1	-3	+7	+14	2.2
2030	25	MLB MLE	SEA	77%	638	569	138	24	4	21	46	133	18	14	4	243	319	409	729	167	279	21	7	326	107	+5	+1	-3	+7	+14	2.4
2031	26	MLB MLE	SEA	78%	646	575	141	25	4	22	47	134	19	14	4	245	323	417	740	172	279	21	7	327	107	+6	+1	-3	+7	+14	2.5
2032	27	MLB MLE	SEA	77%	647	575	140	24	4	22	48	135	19	14	4	243	322	414	736	170	279	21	7	327	108	+6	+1	-3	+7	+14	2.5
2033	28	MLB MLE	SEA	77%	637	566	138	24	4	21	48	134	18	13	4	244	323	412	734	168	279	21	8	326	107	+5	+1	-4	+7	+14	2.3
2034	29	MLB MLE	SEA	75%	626	556	134	23	3	21	47	133	18	12	3	241	320	406	727	165	279	21	8	325	106	+4	+1	-5	+7	+14	2.2
2035	30	MLB MLE	SEA	73%	615	547	131	23	3	20	46	132	17	11	3	239	318	402	720	163	278	21	7	322	104	+3	+1	-5	+7	+13	1.9
2036	31	MLB MLE	SEA	73%	603	536	127	22	3	19	45	131	17	9	3	237	316	396	712	159	276	22	7	318	101	+1	+1	-6	+6	+13	1.6
2037	32	MLB MLE	SEA	72%	592	526	122	21	3	18	44	131	17	8	2	232	312	386	698	154	273	22	7	313	98	-2	+1	-6	+6	+13	1.2
2038	33	MLB MLE	SEA	72%	546	485	110	18	3	16	41	124	15	5	2	227	307	375	682	148	269	23	8	306	93	-4	+0	-7	+6	+12	0.7
2039	34	MLB MLE	SEA	68%	499	445	98	16	2	14	37	116	14	4	1	220	300	360	660	139	264	23	7	298	87	-7	+0	-7	+5	+11	0.2
2027	22	MLB CTX	SEA	54%	314	280	65	11	2	9	21	68	10	7	2	232	309	382	691	150	273	22	7	283	96	-2	+1	-2	+3	+7	0.8
2028	23	MLB CTX	SEA	71%	429	384	92	16	3	13	29	91	13	10	3	240	315	398	713	159	275	21	7	293	101	+1	+1	-2	+5	+9	1.3
2029	24	MLB CTX	SEA	75%	471	421	102	18	3	15	33	99	14	10	3	242	318	406	725	164	276	21	7	298	105	+3	+1	-2	+5	+10	1.7
2030	25	MLB CTX	SEA	77%	494	442	106	18	3	16	35	103	14	11	3	240	316	403	718	163	277	21	7	301	107	+4	+1	-2	+5	+11	1.9
2031	26	MLB CTX	SEA	78%	506	449	109	19	3	17	37	105	15	11	3	243	321	412	733	169	277	21	7	302	107	+4	+1	-3	+5	+11	2.0
2032	27	MLB CTX	SEA	77%	500	445	107	19	3	16	37	104	14	11	3	240	319	404	723	164	277	21	7	303	108	+4	+1	-3	+5	+11	2.0
2033	28	MLB CTX	SEA	77%	488	435	105	18	3	16	36	102	14	10	3	241	320	407	726	166	277	21	7	302	107	+4	+1	-3	+5	+11	1.8
2034	29	MLB CTX	SEA	75%	467	416	99	17	3	15	35	99	13	9	3	238	317	401	718	163	276	21	7	300	106	+3	+1	-3	+5	+10	1.6
2035	30	MLB CTX	SEA	73%	452	402	94	16	2	14	34	97	13	8	2	234	314	388	702	154	275	21	8	298	104	+2	+1	-4	+5	+10	1.4
2036	31	MLB CTX	SEA	73%	439	391	92	16	2	14	33	95	12	7	2	235	314	394	708	159	273	22	8	294	101	+1	+1	-4	+5	+10	1.2
2037	32	MLB CTX	SEA	72%	429	382	88	15	2	13	32	95	12	5	2	230	310	382	692	152	270	22	7	289	98	-1	+0	-5	+5	+9	0.8
2038	33	MLB CTX	SEA	72%	394	351	79	13	2	11	29	89	11	4	1	225	304	368	672	142	267	23	7	283	93	-3	+0	-5	+4	+9	0.5
2039	34	MLB CTX	SEA	68%	338	301	66	10	2	9	25	79	9	2	1	219	299	355	654	136	262	23	7	274	87	-5	+0	-5	+4	+7	0.1
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	5722	5100	1204	206	33	178	416	1226	164	105	31	236	314	394	708	158	276	21	7	295	99	+16	+9	-43	+61	+124	17.0
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	579	136	23	4	20	47	139	19	12	4	235	313	392	705	157	274	21	7	295	99	+2	+1	-5	+7	+14	1.9
Career	—	MLE		—	9487	8380	1958	345	54	286	708	2136	322	183	60	234	318	390	708	156	278	23	7	315	99	+18	+12	-59	+84	+171	23.1
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	574	135	24	4	20	49	146	22	13	4	235	320	395	715	160	279	22	8	315	99	+2	+1	-5	+7	+14	1.9

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	162s	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Asdrúbal Cabreralast yr '21 career totals — 15 seasons, 7,401 PA	11.1	7,401	195	91	266	329	423	+58	+11	38.2	32.2
/162	664	17	8	+5.2	+1.0	3.4	pk7: 26
#2Ian Desmondlast yr '19 career totals — 11 seasons, 5,944 PA	9.0	5,944	181	181	263	315	427	+30	-4	25.8	25.0
/162	664	20	20	+3.3	-0.4	2.9	pk7: 24
#3Jason Kipnislast yr '20 career totals — 10 seasons, 4,984 PA	7.5	4,984	126	136	260	333	416	+18	-11	22.6	21.9
/162	664	17	18	+2.4	-1.4	3.0	pk7: 21
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 10 projected seasons	8.7	5,766	184	107	239	314	401	+59	-19	24.3	20.3
/162	664	21	12	+6.8	-2.2	2.8	pk7: 16
#4Didi Gregoriuslast yr '22 career totals — 10 seasons, 4,238 PA	6.4	4,238	134	37	256	308	421	+45	-10	17.0	17.2
/162	664	21	6	+7.1	-1.5	2.7	pk7: 18
#5Bill Halllast yr '11 career totals — 9 seasons, 3,621 PA	5.5	3,621	123	62	249	308	437	+22	+7	15.9	16.6
/162	664	23	11	+4.1	+1.3	2.9	pk7: 17
#6Khalil Greenelast yr '09 career totals — 7 seasons, 2,835 PA	4.3	2,835	90	25	245	302	422	+30	+14	13.0	13.0
/162	664	21	6	+7.1	+3.2	3.0	pk7: 13

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Michael Arroyo (OGILVIE)	21	47→55	49→52	50→48	58	229/305/371	141	275	8	8	22%	6%	93	+0.4	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
●Miguel Vargas 2022 · AA	22	50→52	49→55	51→50	45	253/303/401	148	297	17	9	21%	6%	98	+1.2	227/306/381	154	270	16	12	22%	9%	95	+0.9	224/326/406	183	249	21	12	19%	12%	105	+1.6
✕Addison Russell 2015 · AA	21	47→53	50→55	53→50	44	238/298/398	160	301	17	13	26%	7%	95	+1.0	240/306/401	161	301	18	7	25%	8%	99	+1.3	239/310/406	168	295	19	5	25%	8%	97	+0.9
●Zach Neto 2023 · AA	22	49→48	46→60	49→55	42	243/302/374	131	307	13	12	25%	5%	92	+0.7	246/317/424	178	299	21	19	25%	6%	109	+2.0	246/317/445	199	306	24	25	27%	7%	110	+2.1
●Sean Rodríguez 2007 · AA	22	46→49	52→60	48→50	46	235/306/404	170	299	19	12	28%	8%	100	+1.3	229/300/399	170	291	20	10	28%	7%	97	+1.1	234/307/425	191	291	23	12	27%	7%	102	+1.1
●Mike Zunino 2013 · AA	22	49→48	50→65	49→30	46	249/297/405	156	285	18	9	20%	6%	97	+1.1	206/264/375	169	269	21	3	31%	5%	78	-0.3	228/303/462	235	292	33	0	33%	8%	111	+1.7
●Gary Sánchez 2014 · AA	21	43→50	48→65	47→45	41	221/272/359	138	282	16	6	28%	6%	77	-0.3	238/288/385	147	290	18	6	24%	6%	88	+0.5	240/315/462	222	266	31	4	23%	8%	115	+1.9
✕Carter Kieboom 2019 · AA	21	47→53	47→50	47→45	44	235/291/371	136	301	15	7	26%	7%	86	+0.3	227/310/349	122	298	13	5	27%	9%	89	+0.5	216/314/329	113	281	13	3	26%	10%	83	+0.1
●Elijah Dukes 2006 · AA	22	51→52	49→55	51→50	45	254/303/403	149	298	16	16	21%	6%	98	+1.2	245/329/409	164	289	18	14	21%	10%	109	+2.0	235/343/409	174	277	18	13	21%	13%	112	+1.4
✕Derek Norris 2010 · A	21	43→53	51→55	45→50	48	223/303/383	161	292	19	5	30%	10%	95	+0.9	204/301/365	161	275	19	9	31%	11%	90	+0.6	258/336/412	153	316	16	5	22%	10%	109	+1.5
✕Kelvin Diaz 2008 · A	21	52	47→50	44→45	49	255/327/393	138	287	14	7	16%	7%	105	+1.7	231/292/351	120	283	10	9	21%	6%	82	+0.0	224/279/357	134	275	10	13	22%	4%	79	-0.1
●Luis Urías 2020 · MLB	23	49→59	46→55	47→45	49	240/318/375	135	298	13	6	23%	8%	98	+1.2	239/324/394	155	290	17	6	23%	10%	105	+1.7	237/332/395	158	281	19	4	21%	10%	105	+1.1
✕Brian Goodwin 2013 · AA	22	47→52	46→60	48→50	49	230/304/365	135	294	13	13	26%	9%	90	+0.6	213/284/325	112	292	9	13	28%	8%	73	-0.6	243/310/437	193	313	22	11	28%	8%	105	+1.0
●Brandon Phillips 2003 · MLB	22	49→59	47→55	51→55	51	243/318/389	146	285	13	9	19%	8%	101	+1.4	218/264/333	115	259	11	8	20%	5%	68	-1.0	272/324/453	181	288	22	25	14%	6%	113	+2.5
●Junior Caminero 2023 · A	20	46→54	50→65	53→45	44	239/293/388	149	284	20	10	24%	6%	91	+0.7	256/302/442	186	299	26	6	23%	6%	107	+1.9	258/322/495	237	270	35	4	20%	8%	121	+2.8
●Alejandro Kirk 2021 · MLB	22	51→57	46→50	49→40	55	251/324/388	137	283	12	5	16%	9%	102	+1.5	259/338/399	140	279	16	2	13%	10%	110	+2.1	263/349/394	131	277	16	0	11%	11%	110	+1.4
●Adam Jones 2006 · AA	20	51→56	46→60	48→50	43	251/307/391	140	322	13	10	25%	6%	97	+1.1	246/294/396	150	312	16	12	26%	5%	93	+0.8	275/314/462	188	306	25	11	19%	4%	114	+2.7
●Vinnie Catricala 2010 · A	21	46→56	46→55	51→45	43	229/278/357	128	271	13	7	21%	5%	78	-0.3	246/301/392	146	303	15	7	23%	6%	95	+1.0	243/300/389	146	296	15	7	23%	6%	92	+0.7
●Josmil Pinto 2010 · A	21	45→55	49→50	47→40	44	228/278/377	149	272	16	3	23%	6%	83	+0.1	216/262/347	131	267	14	2	24%	5%	70	-0.8	252/318/406	154	302	16	0	21%	8%	102	+1.2
●Andy Pages 2021 · A	20	43→53	46→55	46→50	46	214/297/344	130	275	14	9	26%	8%	84	+0.1	213/299/399	186	281	23	6	32%	9%	97	+1.1	266/322/445	180	311	23	10	22%	6%	115	+2.3
●Colby Rasmus 2008 · AA	21	44→54	52→65	53→50	46	227/294/399	172	274	19	15	25%	8%	95	+0.9	235/303/397	162	282	19	12	23%	8%	97	+1.1	243/311/468	224	317	29	3	32%	8%	115	+1.8

Career Stats + Projections

Career Comps

Career Path Comps