Manuel Genao

P Jupiter Hammerheads

Age 21 RHP 6'1" / 150 lbs A Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2037 peak 1.4 · 2030

Overview

APROSPECTMiLBFA 2038

OGV OFP40OGV rank#208ETA2028MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	18	ROKDSL Miami	11	11	29	4.66	2.13	26.4%	7.0%	—	K 17.9% · BB 8.7% · FIP 3.02
2025	19	MIX3 levels	17	7	56	4.20	3.26	20.9%	8.3%	—	K 14.6% · BB 9.1% · FIP 4.35
2026	20	AMIA	26	21	108	3.67	2.71	25.2%	7.2%	—	K 18.7% · BB 8.5% · FIP 3.68
2027PROJ	21	MLBMIA	—	—	0	4.56	4.56	18.8%	9.1%	—
2028PROJ49% MLB	22	MLBMIA	12	12	63	4.34	4.27	20.3%	8.5%	0.8
2029PROJ73% MLB	23	MLBMIA	17	17	93	4.21	4.13	21.3%	8.2%	1.3

Next 3 projected WAR 2.1Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2037Service0.0First FA2038

2027MiLB2028MiLB2029MiLB2030MiLB2031MiLB2032Pre-Arb$0.9M2033Pre-Arb$0.9M2034Pre-Arb$1.0M+3

Career WAR0.0 WAR median (P10 -0.4 / P90 10, comp-based) · star 2% · didn't stick 84%

CompsMiguel Almonte (age 22) · Nick Sinacola (age 22) · Max Gamboa (age 22)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 120112vR 104

ERA4.56

FIP4.56

K%18.8%

BB%9.1%

K-BB%9.7%

Proj IP128

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 128 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$81M ctrl surplus

Contract

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2032

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2037

First FA Year 2038

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2030	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2031	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2032	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+1.5	$8M	+$8M
2033	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+1.4	$7M	+$7M
2034	Pre-Arb	$1.0M	+1.3	$6M	+$6M
2035	Arb-1	$2M	+1.1	$5M	+$4M
2036	Arb-2	$3M	+0.8	$2M	+$0.4M
2037	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$8M		$28M	+$24M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2024	18	ROK MLE	DSL Miami	11	11	29	129	34	9	1	100%	2.6	17.9%	8.7%	9.2%	0.6%	4.66	3.02	—
2024	18	ROK MLE	DSL Miami	11	11	29	129	34	9	1	100%	2.6	17.9%	8.7%	9.2%	0.6%	4.66	3.02	—
2024	18	ROK RAW	DSL Miami	11	11	29	129	34	9	1	100%	2.6	26.4%	7.0%	19.4%	0.8%	4.66	2.13	—
2025	19	MIX MLE	3 levels	17	7	56	254	53	21	4	41%	3.3	14.6%	9.1%	5.5%	2.4%	4.20	4.35	—
2025	19	MIX MLE	3 levels	17	7	56	254	53	21	4	41%	3.3	14.6%	9.1%	5.5%	2.4%	4.20	4.35	—
2025	19	MIX RAW	3 levels	17	7	56	254	53	21	4	41%	3.3	20.9%	8.3%	12.6%	1.6%	4.20	3.26	—
2026	20	A MLE	Jupiter Hammerheads	26	21	108	460	116	33	7	81%	4.2	18.7%	8.5%	10.2%	2.0%	3.67	3.68	—
2026	20	A MLE	Jupiter Hammerheads	26	21	108	460	116	33	7	81%	4.2	18.7%	8.5%	10.2%	2.0%	3.67	3.68	—
2026	20	A RAW	Jupiter Hammerheads	26	21	108	460	116	33	7	81%	4.2	25.2%	7.2%	18.0%	1.5%	3.67	2.71	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	21	MLB	MIA	—	—	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	18.8%	9.1%	9.7%	2.8%	4.56	4.56	—
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	22	MLB MLE	MIA	25	25	128	540	110	46	15	100%	5.1	20.3%	8.5%	11.8%	2.7%	4.41	4.34	+1.6
2029	23	MLB MLE	MIA	24	24	128	540	115	44	15	100%	5.3	21.3%	8.2%	13.1%	2.7%	4.28	4.20	+1.8
2030	24	MLB MLE	MIA	23	23	128	540	118	43	15	100%	5.6	21.9%	7.9%	14.0%	2.7%	4.18	4.11	+2.0
2031	25	MLB MLE	MIA	17	17	100	423	94	33	11	100%	5.9	22.2%	7.8%	14.5%	2.7%	4.11	4.06	+1.6
2032	26	MLB MLE	MIA	17	17	100	424	95	33	11	100%	5.9	22.4%	7.7%	14.7%	2.7%	4.06	4.03	+1.6
2033	27	MLB MLE	MIA	16	16	98	415	93	32	11	100%	6.1	22.4%	7.8%	14.6%	2.7%	4.07	4.07	+1.5
2034	28	MLB MLE	MIA	16	16	94	396	88	31	11	100%	5.9	22.3%	8.0%	14.3%	2.8%	4.12	4.16	+1.4
2035	29	MLB MLE	MIA	15	15	87	368	81	30	11	100%	5.8	22.1%	8.2%	13.9%	3.0%	4.22	4.29	+1.1
2036	30	MLB MLE	MIA	13	13	79	334	73	28	11	100%	6.1	21.7%	8.5%	13.2%	3.2%	4.37	4.47	+0.9
2037	31	MLB MLE	MIA	12	12	71	299	64	26	10	100%	5.9	21.3%	8.8%	12.5%	3.4%	4.55	4.67	+0.6
2038	32	MLB MLE	MIA	10	10	63	265	55	25	10	100%	6.3	20.9%	9.2%	11.6%	3.7%	4.76	4.89	+0.4
2039	33	MLB MLE	MIA	9	9	55	234	48	23	9	100%	6.2	20.4%	9.7%	10.7%	3.9%	4.99	5.14	+0.2
2028	22	MLB CTX	MIA	12	12	63	266	54	23	7	100%	5.2	20.3%	8.5%	11.8%	2.6%	4.34	4.27	+0.8
2029	23	MLB CTX	MIA	17	17	93	393	84	32	10	100%	5.5	21.3%	8.2%	13.1%	2.6%	4.21	4.13	+1.3
2030	24	MLB CTX	MIA	19	19	106	448	98	35	11	100%	5.6	21.9%	7.9%	14.0%	2.5%	4.11	4.04	+1.6
2031	25	MLB CTX	MIA	15	15	89	376	84	29	10	100%	5.9	22.2%	7.8%	14.5%	2.5%	4.04	3.99	+1.4
2032	26	MLB CTX	MIA	15	15	92	388	87	30	10	100%	6.1	22.4%	7.7%	14.7%	2.5%	3.99	3.96	+1.5
2033	27	MLB CTX	MIA	15	15	91	384	86	30	10	100%	6.1	22.4%	7.8%	14.6%	2.6%	4.00	4.00	+1.4
2034	28	MLB CTX	MIA	15	15	88	372	83	30	10	100%	5.9	22.3%	8.0%	14.3%	2.7%	4.04	4.08	+1.3
2035	29	MLB CTX	MIA	14	14	83	350	77	29	10	100%	5.9	22.1%	8.2%	13.9%	2.8%	4.14	4.21	+1.1
2036	30	MLB CTX	MIA	12	12	75	317	69	27	10	100%	6.2	21.7%	8.5%	13.2%	3.0%	4.28	4.38	+0.8
2037	31	MLB CTX	MIA	11	11	67	283	60	25	9	100%	6.1	21.3%	8.8%	12.5%	3.2%	4.46	4.58	+0.6
2038	32	MLB CTX	MIA	10	10	60	253	53	23	9	100%	6.0	20.9%	9.2%	11.6%	3.5%	4.66	4.79	+0.4
2039	33	MLB CTX	MIA	9	9	53	224	46	22	8	100%	5.9	20.4%	9.7%	10.7%	3.7%	4.88	5.03	+0.2
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		165	165	959	4049	879	334	113	100%	5.8	21.7%	8.3%	13.5%	2.8%	4.21	3.85	+17.9
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		34	34	200	844	183	70	24	100%	5.8	21.7%	8.3%	13.5%	2.8%	4.21	3.85	+3.7
Career	—	MLE		54	39	193	843	146	73	16	72%	3.6	17.3%	8.7%	8.6%	1.9%	3.97	3.78	+14.6
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		56	40	200	875	152	76	17	72%	3.6	17.3%	8.7%	8.6%	1.9%	3.97	3.78	+2.6

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 AJupiter Hammerheads · 108 IPFIP 2.71 → 3.68 (+0.97)K% 25.2% → 18.7%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	25.22%	—	×0.740	18.66%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	7.17%	—	×1.180	8.47%
HR / BF /BF	1.52%	÷1.000	×1.300	1.98%

Factors used: pitcher A level factors — K ×0.74, BB ×1.18, HR ×1.30. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 2.71 → 3.68, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 ROKFCL Marlins · 38 IPFIP 2.97 → 4.38 (+1.41)K% 24.0% → 16.3%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	23.95%	—	×0.680	16.29%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	7.19%	—	×1.250	8.98%
HR / BF /BF	1.80%	÷0.910	×1.400	2.76%

Factors used: pitcher ROK level factors — K ×0.68, BB ×1.25, HR ×1.40. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 82).

Result: FIP 2.97 → 4.38, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 AJupiter Hammerheads · 16 IPFIP 3.61 → 4.30 (+0.69)K% 14.7% → 10.9%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	14.67%	—	×0.740	10.85%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	8.00%	—	×1.180	9.44%
HR / BF /BF	1.33%	÷1.035	×1.300	1.67%

Result: FIP 3.61 → 4.30, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 ROKDSL Miami · 29 IPFIP 2.18 → 3.02 (+0.83)K% 26.4% → 17.9%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	26.36%	—	×0.680	17.92%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	6.98%	—	×1.250	8.72%
HR / BF /BF	0.78%	÷1.836	×1.400	0.59%

Result: FIP 2.18 → 3.02, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Manuel Genao (OGILVIE)	—	—	—	—	—	2.8%	—	4.22	21.2%	13.0%	384	-0.34	—	—	—
Miguel Almonte R 2015 · 3.88 FIP	22	SP-	3.88	18.0%	10.1%	1.8%	.300	4.41	19.4%	7.9%	143	+0.53	3.06	247	87
Nick Sinacola R 2022 · 4.44 FIP	22	SP-	4.44	19.3%	10.4%	3.0%	.335	4.05	18.2%	10.0%	254	-0.39	3.56	357	87
Max Gamboa R 2018 · 3.99 FIP	22	SP-	3.99	17.3%	9.5%	2.1%	.334	3.99	26.5%	7.7%	61	+0.00	3.99	162	87
Logan Martin R 2024 · 3.95 FIP	23	SP-	3.95	16.9%	8.9%	2.1%	.278	4.58	17.6%	5.0%	140	+0.63	3.95	242	85
Johnathan Harmon R 2023 · 4.30 FIP	22	SP-	4.30	17.8%	10.2%	2.6%	.293	5.14	15.2%	6.4%	193	+0.84	3.52	282	84
Josh Bostick R 2024 · 4.65 FIP	22	SP	4.65	19.3%	11.2%	3.2%	.304	5.40	21.7%	12.6%	119	+0.75	4.65	226	84
Kenten Egbert R 2024 · 4.26 FIP	23	SP-	4.26	19.6%	9.6%	2.9%	.257	4.34	10.8%	3.5%	133	+0.08	4.04	231	84
Erik Swanson R 2016 · 3.56 FIP	22	SP-	3.56	17.1%	8.8%	1.5%	.316	4.11	20.9%	15.2%	298	+0.55	1.60	606	84
Jack Wenninger R 2024 · 4.33 FIP	22	SP-	4.33	20.9%	9.3%	3.3%	.309	4.29	21.1%	11.1%	251	-0.04	3.90	366	84
Ian Bedell R 2023 · 3.73 FIP	23	SP-	3.73	21.0%	10.1%	2.1%	.285	5.56	18.8%	9.0%	178	+1.83	3.73	274	83
Adrian Houser R 2015 · 4.38 FIP	22	SP-	4.38	16.6%	8.8%	2.9%	.298	3.90	15.5%	7.4%	163	-0.48	3.45	1,221	83
Nick Dean R 2024 · 3.86 FIP	23	SP-	3.86	17.5%	8.1%	2.2%	.275	3.47	21.7%	14.6%	111	-0.39	2.73	202	83
Michael Forret R 2024 · 4.00 FIP	20	SP-	4.00	21.8%	11.8%	2.3%	.302	3.45	22.8%	12.9%	190	-0.55	2.65	289	83
Trevor Martin R 2023 · 4.25 FIP	22	SP	4.25	21.3%	10.6%	2.9%	.297	4.19	20.3%	11.0%	243	-0.06	3.94	353	83
Alex Eubanks R 2018 · 4.12 FIP	22	SP-	4.12	16.1%	7.3%	2.6%	.335	3.85	11.1%	3.0%	107	-0.27	3.85	219	83
Derek True R 2024 · 4.90 FIP	23	SP-	4.90	18.5%	10.5%	3.7%	.333	4.95	17.6%	5.9%	73	+0.05	4.50	170	83
Logan Evans R 2024 · 4.17 FIP	23	SP-	4.17	17.8%	10.3%	2.3%	.257	4.17	17.9%	10.2%	125	+0.00	4.17	232	83
Tyler Uberstine R 2022 · 4.19 FIP	23	SP-	4.19	19.5%	10.5%	2.6%	.302	4.27	22.8%	15.4%	121	+0.08	2.98	262	82
Buck Farmer R 2015 · 4.41 FIP	24	SP-	4.41	16.4%	7.4%	3.2%	.307	4.01	19.6%	10.9%	370	-0.40	3.16	907	82
Rorik Maltrud R 2024 · 3.91 FIP	24	SP-	3.91	20.4%	9.6%	2.4%	.300	4.40	18.6%	9.4%	193	+0.49	3.91	298	82

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 2,161 pitcher careers (1,251 from 1990-2025 + 910 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	6.3	97	21.3%	8.3%	1.12	4.32
Skip Lockwood ('69-'80, 11 WAR*)	6.2	103	22.5%*	9.1%*	1.06*	4.28*
Dave Giusti ('62-'77, 13 WAR*)	8.6	114	20.1%*	8.2%*	1.00*	4.48*
Joe Hesketh ('84-'94, 10 WAR*)	4.8	87	23.2%*	8.8%*	1.07*	3.95*
Bud Norris ('18)	6.1	122	21.7%	9.1%	1.15	4.45
Carlos Villanueva ('16)	5.0	91	20.4%	7.6%	1.25	4.31
Rich Hill ('25)	7.1	101	23.9%	9.2%	1.12	4.02