Manuel Genao — OGILVIE

Manuel Genao P Jupiter Hammerheads

Age 20 RHP 6'1" / 150 lbs A Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2036 peak 2.2 · 2032

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 32 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 122114vR 106

ERA4.70

FIP4.70

K%18.0%

BB%9.1%

K-BB%8.9%

ROS IP32

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 32 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$54M ctrl surplus

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†4055

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2031

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2036

First FA Year 2037

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2030	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2031	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+1.2	$7M	+$6M
2032	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+1.2	$6M	+$6M
2033	Pre-Arb	$1.0M	+1.2	$6M	+$5M
2034	Arb-1	$4M	+1.0	$4M	+$3M
2035	Arb-2	$5M	+0.8	$2M	+$0.0M (cut)
2036	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$7M		$24M	+$20M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2024	18	ROK MLE	DSL Miami	11	11	29	129	34	9	1	100%	2.6	17.9%	8.7%	9.2%	0.6%	4.66	3.02	—
2024	18	ROK MLE	DSL Miami	11	11	29	129	34	9	1	100%	2.6	17.9%	8.7%	9.2%	0.6%	4.66	3.02	—
2024	18	ROK RAW	DSL Miami	11	11	29	129	34	9	1	100%	2.6	26.4%	7.0%	19.4%	0.8%	4.66	2.13	—
2025	19	MIX MLE	3 levels	17	7	56	254	53	21	4	41%	3.3	14.6%	9.1%	5.5%	2.4%	4.20	4.35	—
2025	19	MIX MLE	3 levels	17	7	56	254	53	21	4	41%	3.3	14.6%	9.1%	5.5%	2.4%	4.20	4.35	—
2025	19	MIX RAW	3 levels	17	7	56	254	53	21	4	41%	3.3	20.9%	8.3%	12.6%	1.6%	4.20	3.26	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	20	A MLE	Jupiter Hammerheads	26	21	108	460	116	33	7	81%	4.2	18.7%	8.5%	10.2%	2.0%	3.67	3.68	—
YTD	20	A MLE	Jupiter Hammerheads	26	21	108	460	116	33	7	81%	4.2	18.7%	8.5%	10.2%	2.0%	3.67	3.68	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	20	A RAW	MIA	26	21	108	460	116	33	7	81%	4.2	25.2%	7.2%	18.0%	1.5%	3.67	2.71	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	21	MLB MLE	MIA	21	21	111	469	90	41	13	100%	5.3	19.2%	8.6%	10.6%	2.8%	4.57	4.51	+0.5
2028	22	MLB MLE	MIA	22	22	117	493	102	40	14	100%	5.3	20.6%	8.2%	12.5%	2.8%	4.41	4.31	+0.8
2029	23	MLB MLE	MIA	23	23	121	511	110	40	14	100%	5.3	21.5%	7.8%	13.7%	2.8%	4.27	4.18	+1.0
2030	24	MLB MLE	MIA	22	22	124	524	115	40	14	100%	5.6	22.0%	7.6%	14.4%	2.7%	4.16	4.09	+1.2
2031	25	MLB MLE	MIA	21	21	126	531	119	40	14	100%	6.0	22.4%	7.5%	14.9%	2.7%	4.08	4.03	+1.3
2032	26	MLB MLE	MIA	21	21	126	531	120	39	14	100%	6.0	22.6%	7.4%	15.2%	2.7%	4.04	4.01	+1.3
2033	27	MLB MLE	MIA	21	21	124	523	118	39	15	100%	5.9	22.6%	7.5%	15.1%	2.8%	4.04	4.05	+1.3
2034	28	MLB MLE	MIA	20	20	120	507	114	39	15	100%	6.0	22.5%	7.7%	14.8%	2.9%	4.09	4.13	+1.1
2035	29	MLB MLE	MIA	19	19	115	484	108	38	15	100%	6.0	22.2%	7.9%	14.3%	3.0%	4.19	4.26	+0.9
2036	30	MLB MLE	MIA	18	18	108	455	100	37	15	100%	6.0	21.9%	8.2%	13.7%	3.2%	4.34	4.44	+0.6
2037	31	MLB MLE	MIA	17	17	100	424	91	36	15	100%	5.9	21.5%	8.5%	13.0%	3.5%	4.52	4.64	+0.3
2038	32	MLB MLE	MIA	16	16	93	393	83	35	15	100%	5.8	21.0%	8.9%	12.1%	3.7%	4.73	4.87	+0.0
2039	33	MLB MLE	MIA	14	14	85	360	74	34	14	100%	6.1	20.5%	9.4%	11.2%	4.0%	4.96	5.12	-0.2
2027	21	MLB CTX	MIA	11	11	55	232	45	20	6	100%	5.0	19.2%	8.6%	10.6%	2.7%	4.49	4.43	+0.2
2028	22	MLB CTX	MIA	16	16	85	359	74	29	10	100%	5.3	20.6%	8.2%	12.5%	2.7%	4.33	4.23	+0.6
2029	23	MLB CTX	MIA	19	19	102	431	93	34	11	100%	5.4	21.5%	7.8%	13.7%	2.6%	4.19	4.10	+0.9
2030	24	MLB CTX	MIA	20	20	111	469	103	36	12	100%	5.5	22.0%	7.6%	14.4%	2.6%	4.08	4.01	+1.1
2031	25	MLB CTX	MIA	20	20	115	486	109	36	13	100%	5.8	22.4%	7.5%	14.9%	2.6%	4.01	3.96	+1.2
2032	26	MLB CTX	MIA	20	20	117	494	112	37	13	100%	5.8	22.6%	7.4%	15.2%	2.6%	3.97	3.94	+1.2
2033	27	MLB CTX	MIA	20	20	118	498	113	37	13	100%	5.9	22.6%	7.5%	15.1%	2.6%	3.96	3.97	+1.2
2034	28	MLB CTX	MIA	19	19	114	481	108	37	13	100%	6.0	22.5%	7.7%	14.8%	2.7%	4.01	4.05	+1.0
2035	29	MLB CTX	MIA	18	18	109	460	102	36	13	100%	6.1	22.2%	7.9%	14.3%	2.9%	4.11	4.18	+0.8
2036	30	MLB CTX	MIA	17	17	102	431	94	35	13	100%	6.0	21.9%	8.2%	13.7%	3.1%	4.25	4.35	+0.5
2037	31	MLB CTX	MIA	16	16	95	401	86	34	13	100%	5.9	21.5%	8.5%	13.0%	3.3%	4.43	4.55	+0.3
2038	32	MLB CTX	MIA	15	15	88	372	78	33	13	100%	5.9	21.0%	8.9%	12.1%	3.5%	4.63	4.77	+0.0
2039	33	MLB CTX	MIA	14	14	81	342	70	32	13	100%	5.8	20.5%	9.4%	11.2%	3.8%	4.85	5.01	-0.2
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		223	223	1293	5459	1188	438	157	100%	5.8	21.8%	8.0%	13.7%	2.9%	4.22	3.85	+16.3
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		34	34	200	844	184	68	24	100%	5.8	21.8%	8.0%	13.7%	2.9%	4.22	3.85	+2.5
Career	—	MLE		54	39	193	843	146	73	16	72%	3.6	17.3%	8.7%	8.6%	1.9%	3.97	3.78	+10.0
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		56	40	200	875	152	76	17	72%	3.6	17.3%	8.7%	8.6%	1.9%	3.97	3.78	+1.4

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Manuel Genao (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.70	18.0%	9.1%	2.9%	—	4.33	20.5%	12.3%	349	-0.37	—	—	—
Alejandro Manzano R 2022 · 4.89 FIP	20	SP-	4.89	14.8%	8.6%	3.5%	.347	4.81	15.6%	6.5%	199	-0.08	4.28	273	87
Porter Hodge R 2021 · 4.20 FIP	20	SP-	4.20	19.3%	8.8%	2.9%	.336	3.40	24.2%	10.6%	249	-0.80	2.97	349	86
Jairo Garcia R 2015 · 4.47 FIP	20	SP-	4.47	16.4%	11.3%	2.4%	.298	5.25	10.1%	-1.9%	96	+0.78	3.88	148	86
Robert Colina R 2021 · 4.42 FIP	20	SP-	4.42	19.0%	9.8%	3.1%	.312	3.69	21.5%	12.7%	111	-0.73	3.25	266	86
Jordany Ventura R 2019 · 4.08 FIP	19	SP	4.08	16.8%	8.9%	2.3%	.264	—	—	—	—	—	4.08	219	86
Logan Gragg R 2019 · 4.14 FIP	20	SP	4.14	17.4%	9.5%	2.4%	.343	5.20	15.2%	8.2%	202	+1.06	4.14	412	86
Luis Cohen R 2023 · 4.11 FIP	20	SP-	4.11	17.2%	11.4%	1.9%	.263	4.98	14.1%	3.9%	247	+0.87	3.00	333	85
Gabe Bierman R 2021 · 4.80 FIP	21	SP-	4.80	21.3%	11.8%	3.6%	.277	4.51	16.2%	4.0%	187	-0.29	4.03	328	84
Donny Troconis R 2023 · 5.31 FIP	17	SP-	5.31	16.0%	9.4%	4.3%	.293	5.06	14.9%	2.2%	180	-0.25	3.15	224	84
Henry Valencio R 2019 · 4.15 FIP	20	SP-	4.15	16.4%	10.6%	2.0%	.293	5.11	11.9%	-11.9%	14	+0.96	3.48	136	84
Ryan Atkinson R 2016 · 4.58 FIP	23	SP-	4.58	18.4%	11.3%	2.9%	.315	4.48	21.6%	9.0%	305	-0.10	4.14	338	83
Saul Gonzalez R 2021 · 3.66 FIP	21	SP-	3.66	16.1%	8.4%	1.6%	.320	3.24	19.8%	9.6%	70	-0.42	2.94	110	83
Andrew Cabezas R 2018 · 4.59 FIP	21	SP-	4.59	16.1%	9.4%	3.0%	.210	4.70	16.7%	6.9%	185	+0.11	4.16	300	83
Pedro Garcia R 2022 · 4.69 FIP	20	SP-	4.69	15.5%	6.8%	3.7%	.221	5.80	13.9%	0.2%	139	+1.11	4.69	247	83
Ulices Campos R 2022 · 4.58 FIP	20	SP-	4.58	17.9%	11.5%	2.8%	.253	5.32	12.0%	1.0%	65	+0.74	4.11	153	83
Wuilliams Rodriguez R 2023 · 4.21 FIP	19	SP-	4.21	17.7%	10.6%	2.3%	.363	5.79	21.2%	5.9%	70	+1.58	3.69	135	82
Roger Rodriguez R 2022 · 5.15 FIP	20	SP-	5.15	16.4%	9.6%	4.0%	.336	—	—	—	—	—	3.20	128	82
Michael Dominguez R 2021 · 4.09 FIP	20	SP	4.09	17.9%	11.1%	2.0%	.289	5.72	20.1%	5.0%	280	+1.63	3.82	383	82
Peyton Remy R 2018 · 3.57 FIP	21	SP-	3.57	19.4%	7.9%	2.0%	.280	4.75	16.3%	5.2%	140	+1.18	3.57	286	82
Osman Gutierrez R 2015 · 4.23 FIP	20	SP-	4.23	13.6%	9.1%	2.1%	.322	5.15	14.6%	1.7%	143	+0.92	4.23	189	82

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	7.5	107	21.6%	8.1%	1.16	4.32
Jon Gray ('24)	6.1	122	23.4%	7.8%	1.15	4.45
Alex Wood ('24)	5.0	111	21.6%	7.0%	0.96	3.98
Zach Davies ('23)	5.2	116	17.5%	8.1%	1.16	4.36
Joe Musgrove ('24)	5.3	117	23.9%	6.0%	1.13	3.73
Vince Velasquez ('23)	3.8	85	24.9%	9.3%	1.48	4.88
Kenta Maeda ('24)	4.9	122	25.9%	6.9%	1.30	4.17