Manuel Genao
P
Jupiter Hammerheads
Age 20
RHP
6'1" / 150 lbs
A
Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2036
peak 0.7 · 2030
2026 ROS PROJECTION76 act + 32 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 119110vR 101
ERA4.42
FIP4.42
K%21.6%
BB%9.2%
K-BB%12.4%
ROS IP32
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 108 IP
━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit
Grades · Contract
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 18 | ROK | DSL Miami | 11 | 11 | 29 | 129 | 34 | 9 | 1 | 100% | 2.6 | 17.9% | 8.7% | 9.2% | 0.4% | 4.66 | 2.91 | — |
| 2024 | 18 | ROK | DSL Miami | 11 | 11 | 29 | 129 | 34 | 9 | 1 | 100% | 2.6 | 26.4% | 7.0% | 19.4% | 0.8% | 4.66 | 2.13 | — |
| 2025 | 19 | MIX | 3 levels | 17 | 7 | 56 | 254 | 53 | 21 | 4 | 41% | 3.3 | 14.6% | 9.1% | 5.5% | 2.6% | 4.20 | 4.46 | — |
| 2025 | 19 | MIX | 3 levels | 17 | 7 | 56 | 254 | 53 | 21 | 4 | 41% | 3.3 | 20.9% | 8.3% | 12.6% | 1.6% | 4.20 | 3.26 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 20 | A | Jupiter Hammerheads | 17 | 15 | 76 | 324 | 78 | 19 | 7 | 88% | 4.5 | 17.8% | 6.9% | 10.9% | 2.8% | 3.67 | 4.01 | +0.8 |
| ROS | 20 | MLB | MIA | 6 | 6 | 32 | 135 | 29 | 12 | 4 | 100% | 5.3 | 21.6% | 9.2% | 12.4% | 2.9% | 4.42 | 4.42 | +0.0 |
| ROS | 20 | MLB | MIA | — | — | 0 | — | — | — | — | — | — | 21.6% | 9.2% | 12.4% | 2.8% | 4.38 | 4.38 | — |
| 2026 TOT | 20 | MLB | MIA | — | — | 108 | 459 | 107 | 31 | 11 | — | — | 23.3% | 6.8% | 16.5% | 2.4% | 3.89 | 4.13 | +1.6 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 21 | MLB | MIA | 6 | 6 | 34 | 142 | 31 | 13 | 4 | 100% | 5.6 | 22.2% | 8.9% | 13.3% | 2.9% | 4.34 | 4.30 | +0.1 |
| 2028 | 22 | MLB | MIA | 7 | 7 | 35 | 149 | 35 | 13 | 4 | 100% | 5.0 | 23.2% | 8.4% | 14.7% | 2.8% | 4.21 | 4.13 | +0.2 |
| 2029 | 23 | MLB | MIA | 7 | 7 | 37 | 155 | 37 | 13 | 4 | 100% | 5.2 | 23.9% | 8.2% | 15.7% | 2.8% | 4.10 | 4.02 | +0.2 |
| 2030 | 24 | MLB | MIA | 7 | 7 | 38 | 158 | 39 | 13 | 4 | 100% | 5.4 | 24.4% | 8.0% | 16.5% | 2.7% | 4.00 | 3.93 | +0.3 |
| 2031 | 25 | MLB | MIA | 6 | 6 | 38 | 160 | 40 | 13 | 4 | 100% | 6.3 | 24.8% | 7.8% | 17.0% | 2.7% | 3.93 | 3.88 | +0.3 |
| 2032 | 26 | MLB | MIA | 6 | 6 | 38 | 160 | 40 | 12 | 4 | 100% | 6.3 | 25.0% | 7.8% | 17.2% | 2.7% | 3.89 | 3.86 | +0.3 |
| 2033 | 27 | MLB | MIA | 6 | 6 | 37 | 158 | 39 | 12 | 4 | 100% | 6.2 | 25.0% | 7.9% | 17.1% | 2.8% | 3.89 | 3.89 | +0.3 |
| 2034 | 28 | MLB | MIA | 6 | 6 | 36 | 153 | 38 | 12 | 4 | 100% | 6.0 | 24.9% | 8.0% | 16.9% | 2.9% | 3.94 | 3.98 | +0.2 |
| 2027 | 21 | MLB | MIA | 3 | 3 | 17 | 72 | 16 | 6 | 2 | 100% | 5.7 | 22.2% | 8.9% | 13.3% | 2.8% | 4.30 | 4.26 | +0.1 |
| 2028 | 22 | MLB | MIA | 5 | 5 | 26 | 110 | 25 | 9 | 3 | 100% | 5.2 | 23.2% | 8.4% | 14.7% | 2.7% | 4.17 | 4.09 | +0.1 |
| 2029 | 23 | MLB | MIA | 6 | 6 | 31 | 131 | 31 | 11 | 4 | 100% | 5.2 | 23.9% | 8.2% | 15.7% | 2.7% | 4.06 | 3.98 | +0.2 |
| 2030 | 24 | MLB | MIA | 6 | 6 | 33 | 139 | 34 | 11 | 4 | 100% | 5.5 | 24.4% | 8.0% | 16.5% | 2.7% | 3.96 | 3.89 | +0.3 |
| 2031 | 25 | MLB | MIA | 6 | 6 | 35 | 148 | 37 | 12 | 4 | 100% | 5.8 | 24.8% | 7.8% | 17.0% | 2.7% | 3.89 | 3.84 | +0.3 |
| 2032 | 26 | MLB | MIA | 6 | 6 | 35 | 148 | 37 | 12 | 4 | 100% | 5.8 | 25.0% | 7.8% | 17.2% | 2.7% | 3.85 | 3.82 | +0.3 |
| 2033 | 27 | MLB | MIA | 6 | 6 | 36 | 152 | 38 | 12 | 4 | 100% | 6.0 | 25.0% | 7.9% | 17.1% | 2.7% | 3.85 | 3.85 | +0.3 |
| 2034 | 28 | MLB | MIA | 6 | 6 | 34 | 144 | 36 | 11 | 4 | 100% | 5.7 | 24.9% | 8.0% | 16.9% | 2.8% | 3.90 | 3.94 | +0.2 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 43 | 43 | 247 | 1042 | 254 | 84 | 28 | 100% | 5.7 | 24.4% | 8.0% | 16.3% | 2.7% | 3.97 | 3.55 | +5.3 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 35 | 35 | 200 | 844 | 206 | 68 | 23 | 100% | 5.7 | 24.4% | 8.0% | 16.3% | 2.7% | 3.97 | 3.55 | +4.3 | ||
| Career | — | 45 | 33 | 161 | 707 | 118 | 57 | 16 | 73% | 3.6 | 16.7% | 8.0% | 8.6% | 2.3% | 4.03 | 3.97 | +2.7 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 56 | 41 | 200 | 880 | 147 | 71 | 20 | 73% | 3.6 | 16.7% | 8.0% | 8.6% | 2.3% | 4.03 | 3.97 | +3.3 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Manuel Genao (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.42 | 21.6% | 9.2% | 2.9% | — | 4.15 | 23.1% | 14.6% | 106 | -0.27 | — | — | — |
| Porter Hodge R 2026 · 4.18 FIP | 20 | SP- | 4.18 | 19.3% | 8.8% | 2.9% | .336 | 3.40 | 24.3% | 10.5% | 249 | -0.78 | 2.98 | 349 | 86 |
| Robert Colina R 2026 · 4.46 FIP | 20 | SP- | 4.46 | 19.0% | 9.8% | 3.1% | .312 | 3.70 | 21.5% | 12.7% | 111 | -0.76 | 3.25 | 266 | 84 |
| Gabe Bierman R 2027 · 5.08 FIP | 21 | SP- | 5.08 | 21.3% | 11.8% | 4.2% | .277 | 4.65 | 16.2% | 4.0% | 187 | -0.43 | 4.20 | 301 | 84 |
| Alejandro Rivera R 2025 · 3.30 FIP | 19 | SP- | 3.30 | 24.1% | 10.7% | 1.6% | .302 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.30 | 116 | 83 |
| Sean Sullivan R 2027 · 4.82 FIP | 21 | SP- | 4.82 | 19.9% | 9.6% | 4.0% | .298 | 4.56 | 17.0% | 8.2% | 243 | -0.26 | 4.30 | 318 | 83 |
| Peyton Remy R 2027 · 3.57 FIP | 21 | SP- | 3.57 | 19.4% | 7.9% | 2.0% | .280 | 4.82 | 16.3% | 5.2% | 140 | +1.25 | 3.57 | 286 | 82 |
| Chad Donato R 2028 · 3.85 FIP | 22 | SP- | 3.85 | 20.9% | 11.4% | 2.0% | .333 | 3.99 | 21.4% | 12.6% | 184 | +0.14 | 2.91 | 439 | 82 |
| Michael Knorr R 2029 · 4.03 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.03 | 23.6% | 11.1% | 2.8% | .312 | 5.16 | 22.3% | 9.9% | 93 | +1.13 | 4.03 | 152 | 82 |
| Adrian Ardines R 2025 · 4.08 FIP | 19 | SP- | 4.08 | 18.5% | 8.0% | 2.8% | .285 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.35 | 114 | 82 |
| Logan Gragg R 2026 · 4.02 FIP | 20 | SP | 4.02 | 17.4% | 9.5% | 2.2% | .343 | 5.04 | 15.2% | 8.2% | 202 | +1.02 | 4.02 | 412 | 81 |
| Jimmy Kingsbury R 2028 · 4.00 FIP | 22 | SP | 4.00 | 21.9% | 9.8% | 2.7% | .175 | 4.15 | 18.0% | 7.5% | 168 | +0.15 | 3.59 | 307 | 81 |
| José López R 2027 · 4.04 FIP | 21 | SP | 4.04 | 19.1% | 9.9% | 2.3% | .329 | 3.72 | 17.9% | 9.9% | 436 | -0.32 | 3.08 | 543 | 81 |
| Tanner Hall R 2028 · 4.56 FIP | 22 | SP- | 4.56 | 18.8% | 11.2% | 3.0% | .295 | 5.39 | 10.1% | -4.6% | 72 | +0.83 | 4.56 | 137 | 80 |
| Jared Karros R 2028 · 4.72 FIP | 22 | SP | 4.72 | 19.0% | 8.9% | 3.8% | .290 | 5.32 | 17.8% | 8.3% | 120 | +0.60 | 3.31 | 191 | 80 |
| Jordany Ventura R 2025 · 4.08 FIP | 19 | SP | 4.08 | 16.8% | 8.9% | 2.3% | .264 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.08 | 219 | 80 |
| Noah Denoyer R 2029 · 4.45 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.45 | 21.5% | 12.1% | 3.0% | .275 | 4.09 | 25.9% | 14.9% | 121 | -0.36 | 3.05 | 181 | 80 |
| Joelvis Del Rosario R 2026 · 3.85 FIP | 20 | SP- | 3.85 | 22.5% | 8.0% | 3.0% | .315 | 4.81 | 14.6% | 6.0% | 197 | +0.96 | 3.13 | 286 | 80 |
| Pat Gallagher R 2029 · 3.56 FIP | 23 | SP- | 3.56 | 21.9% | 8.3% | 2.3% | .284 | 3.43 | 20.0% | 10.3% | 195 | -0.13 | 2.97 | 258 | 80 |
| Ryan Atkinson R 2029 · 4.58 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.58 | 18.4% | 11.3% | 2.9% | .315 | 4.53 | 21.6% | 9.0% | 305 | -0.05 | 4.07 | 338 | 80 |
| Rayner Urbaez R 2026 · 3.82 FIP | 20 | SP | 3.82 | 23.6% | 11.4% | 2.3% | .337 | 3.35 | 15.0% | 3.0% | 27 | -0.47 | 2.50 | 103 | 80 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 9 | 36 | 23.9% | 8.2% | 1.08 | 4.07 |
| Daniel Hudson ('24) | 9 | 52 | 25.5% | 8.9% | 1.13 | 3.75 |
| Nick Wittgren ('23) | 8 | 41 | 21.6% | 7.0% | 1.15 | 4.04 |
| Trevor May ('23) | 8 | 51 | 27.6% | 8.3% | 1.18 | 3.83 |
| Ryan Tepera ('22) | 7 | 48 | 24.7% | 8.8% | 1.12 | 3.53 |
| Bryan Shaw ('23) | 8 | 64 | 21.4% | 9.4% | 1.12 | 4.19 |
| Joakim Soria ('21) | 7 | 54 | 26.1% | 7.8% | 0.92 | 3.65 |