Adrian Houser
P
San Francisco Giants
+0.9
WAR
Age 33
RHP
6'4" / 227 lbs
MLB
Svc 8.0 · Ctrl thru 2028
peak 0.9 · 2026
ERA4.27
FIP4.31
xFIP4.51
SIERA4.78
K%18.1%
BB%8.3%
K-BB%9.8%
IP96
trajectory · 10 yrs
0.9peak
2026
K†4545
FB Velo
p6595.6
Whiff%
p1018.2%
K%
p1010.9%
xwOBA vs
p100.359
SI (46%)
CU (9%)
CH (19%)
FB-1.7 (57%)
SL-2.0 (14%)
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2015 | 22 | MLB | Milwaukee Brewers | 28 | 20 | 122 | 531 | 110 | 43 | 13 | 16.6% | 8.8% | 2.9% | 4.35 | 4.41 | +1.2 |
| 2016 | 23 | AA | Biloxi Shuckers | 13 | 13 | 70 | 304 | 56 | 22 | 5 | 14.9% | 8.0% | 1.7% | 5.25 | 3.77 | +1.0 |
| 2017 | 24 | A | Wisconsin Timber Rattlers | 9 | 8 | 18 | 67 | 27 | 4 | 1 | — | — | — | 1.02 | — | — |
| 2018 | 25 | MLB | Milwaukee Brewers | 28 | 21 | 92 | 406 | 75 | 32 | 9 | 16.0% | 8.3% | 2.3% | 4.78 | 4.06 | +1.2 |
| 2019 | 26 | MLB | Milwaukee Brewers | 39 | 22 | 133 | 546 | 140 | 39 | 16 | 25.1% | 7.2% | 2.9% | 3.32 | 3.50 | +2.7 |
| 2020 | 27 | MLB | Milwaukee Brewers | 12 | 11 | 56 | 246 | 44 | 21 | 8 | 17.9% | 8.5% | 3.2% | 5.30 | 4.41 | +0.3 |
| 2021 | 28 | MLB | Milwaukee Brewers | 28 | 26 | 142 | 599 | 105 | 64 | 12 | 17.5% | 10.7% | 2.0% | 3.22 | 4.06 | +2.0 |
| 2022 | 29 | MLB | Milwaukee Brewers | 25 | 24 | 111 | 492 | 79 | 53 | 9 | 15.2% | 10.1% | 1.6% | 4.62 | 3.96 | +1.7 |
| 2023 | 30 | MLB | Milwaukee Brewers | 27 | 25 | 126 | 539 | 108 | 39 | 15 | 19.8% | 7.3% | 2.8% | 4.00 | 3.88 | +2.0 |
| 2024 | 31 | MLB | New York Mets | 30 | 14 | 105 | 464 | 70 | 44 | 11 | 14.4% | 9.6% | 2.4% | 6.02 | 4.44 | +1.0 |
| 2025 | 32 | MLB | Tampa Bay Rays | 30 | 29 | 164 | 680 | 129 | 53 | 14 | 18.3% | 7.9% | 2.2% | 3.72 | 3.74 | +2.9 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 33 | MLB | San Francisco Giants | 3 | 3 | 16 | 74 | 10 | 5 | 1 | 13.5% | 6.8% | 1.4% | 5.06 | 3.56 | +0.3 |
| ROS | 33 | MLB | MIL | 13 | 13 | 74 | 310 | 53 | 25 | 7 | 17.0% | 8.0% | 2.3% | 3.91 | 3.94 | +0.9 |
| 2026 Total | 33 | MLB | MIL | — | — | 90 | 384 | 63 | 30 | 8 | 16.3% | 7.8% | 2.1% | 4.12 | 3.87 | +1.4 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 34 | MLB | MIL | 14 | 14 | 79 | 334 | 61 | 25 | 8 | 18.2% | 7.4% | 2.4% | 4.23 | 4.19 | +0.8 |
| 2028 | 35 | MLB | MIL | 13 | 13 | 69 | 293 | 51 | 22 | 7 | 17.5% | 7.6% | 2.5% | 4.30 | 4.34 | +0.5 |
| 2029 | 36 | MLB | MIL | 11 | 11 | 60 | 255 | 42 | 20 | 7 | 16.7% | 7.9% | 2.6% | 4.42 | 4.50 | +0.3 |
| 2030 | 37 | MLB | MIL | 52 | — | 52 | 220 | 35 | 18 | 6 | 15.9% | 8.2% | 2.7% | 4.58 | 4.68 | +0.2 |
| 2031 | 38 | MLB | MIL | 44 | — | 44 | 188 | 28 | 16 | 5 | 15.0% | 8.5% | 2.9% | 4.75 | 4.87 | +0.0 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 272 | 216 | 1155 | 4948 | 894 | 425 | 116 | 18.1% | 8.6% | 2.4% | 4.24 | 3.95 | +17.7 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 47 | 37 | 200 | 857 | 155 | 74 | 20 | 18.1% | 8.6% | 2.4% | 4.24 | 3.95 | +3.1 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Adrian Houser (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.33 | 18.2% | 8.3% | 2.4% | — | 4.33 | 17.5% | 9.9% | 209 | -0.00 | — | — | — |
| Leo Medrano R 2026 · 4.34 FIP | 33 | SP- | 4.34 | 11.0% | 7.3% | 2.3% | .312 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.75 | 222 | 66 |
| Frankie De La Cruz R 2026 · 3.74 FIP | 33 | SP- | 3.74 | 15.2% | 8.0% | 1.7% | .262 | 4.37 | 16.2% | 8.2% | 114 | +0.63 | 3.74 | 240 | 66 |
| Jonathan Castellanos R 2026 · 3.64 FIP | 33 | SP- | 3.64 | 12.2% | 6.5% | 1.4% | .313 | 4.15 | 11.8% | 3.5% | 216 | +0.51 | 3.41 | 394 | 66 |
| Jason Berken R 2025 · 4.51 FIP | 32 | SP- | 4.51 | 11.5% | 8.3% | 2.4% | .308 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.36 | 219 | 66 |
| Edgar Gonzalez R 2026 · 3.96 FIP | 33 | SP- | 3.96 | 10.2% | 5.3% | 1.9% | .285 | 3.94 | 12.0% | 6.0% | 207 | -0.02 | 3.19 | 450 | 65 |
| Mitch Talbot R 2027 · 3.81 FIP | 34 | SP- | 3.81 | 13.7% | 5.6% | 2.1% | .281 | 5.01 | 13.2% | 8.9% | 59 | +1.20 | 3.81 | 162 | 65 |
| Juan Delgadillo R 2025 · 4.56 FIP | 32 | SP- | 4.56 | 15.5% | 7.2% | 3.4% | .316 | 4.46 | 10.9% | 4.7% | 39 | -0.10 | 4.46 | 143 | 65 |
| Guillermo Moscoso R 2026 · 3.77 FIP | 33 | SP- | 3.77 | 14.5% | 6.9% | 1.8% | .270 | 4.63 | 14.9% | 7.5% | 176 | +0.86 | 3.77 | 264 | 65 |
| Manuel Flores R 2026 · 4.21 FIP | 33 | SP- | 4.21 | 17.1% | 7.4% | 2.9% | .291 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.48 | 515 | 64 |
| Matt Garza R 2026 · 4.57 FIP | 33 | SP- | 4.57 | 15.7% | 8.1% | 3.2% | .283 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.03 | 365 | 64 |
| Michael Nix R 2026 · 4.52 FIP | 33 | SP- | 4.52 | 11.9% | 11.6% | 1.8% | .322 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.82 | 234 | 64 |
| Andres Ivan Meza R 2025 · 4.35 FIP | 32 | SP- | 4.35 | 11.7% | 7.7% | 2.3% | .349 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.14 | 275 | 63 |
| Yoanner Negrin R 2026 · 3.15 FIP | 33 | SP- | 3.15 | 15.6% | 6.0% | 1.1% | .277 | 3.89 | 17.5% | 9.4% | 148 | +0.74 | 3.15 | 485 | 63 |
| Ross Wolf R 2025 · 3.45 FIP | 32 | SP- | 3.45 | 8.1% | 5.5% | 0.6% | .339 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.45 | 106 | 62 |
| Daniel Guerrero R 2025 · 4.54 FIP | 32 | SP- | 4.54 | 10.2% | 9.0% | 2.1% | .328 | 5.54 | 14.7% | 3.6% | 57 | +1.00 | 4.54 | 269 | 61 |
| Jerome Williams R 2026 · 4.66 FIP | 33 | SP- | 4.66 | 13.4% | 5.6% | 3.6% | .326 | 5.79 | 11.7% | 5.6% | 74 | +1.13 | 4.66 | 195 | 61 |
| Toru Murata R 2024 · 3.63 FIP | 31 | SP- | 3.63 | 12.9% | 5.7% | 1.6% | .288 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.63 | 267 | 59 |
| Stephen Fife R 2024 · 3.76 FIP | 31 | SP- | 3.76 | 12.5% | 5.1% | 2.0% | .374 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.10 | 179 | 58 |
| Roberto Hernandez R 2027 · 4.25 FIP | 34 | SP- | 4.25 | 11.8% | 6.7% | 2.4% | .287 | 4.35 | 13.8% | 6.8% | 86 | +0.10 | 4.25 | 171 | 58 |
| Edwin Jackson R 2026 · 5.07 FIP | 33 | SP- | 5.07 | 18.7% | 9.5% | 4.3% | .278 | 5.31 | 16.9% | 6.9% | 252 | +0.24 | 3.75 | 521 | 58 |
Contract
ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)
Status FA
MLB Debut 2018
Service 8.000 yrs.days
Team Control Through 2028
First FA Year 2029
DEF 10%
| Year | Status | Salary | Proj WAR | Value | Surplus |
| 2026 | Ext / FA-deal | $7M | +0.9 | $4M | -$3M |
| 2027 | Ext / FA-deal | $11M | +0.8 | $3M | -$8M |
| 2028 | Ext / FA-deal | $12M | +0.5 | $2M | -$10M |
| Totals | $30M | $9M | -$21M | ||
Underwater contract
Projected production over the remaining contract is worth -$21M less than the salary owed. Most often this reflects an aging-curve fade that was visible at signing — the team paid a premium for the early years.
Projected production over the remaining contract is worth -$21M less than the salary owed. Most often this reflects an aging-curve fade that was visible at signing — the team paid a premium for the early years.