Adrian Houser — OGILVIE

Adrian Houser P San Francisco Giants

Age 33 RHP 6'4" / 227 lbs MLB Svc 6.0 · Ctrl thru 2027 peak 1.1 · 2026 ILInjured 60-Day (D60)

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 96 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 116107vR 99

ERA4.07

FIP4.10

K%16.4%

BB%7.6%

K-BB%8.9%

ROS IP96

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 110 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control-$12M ctrl surplus

Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract

Scouting Grades

OFP—45

STUF5050

CTRL5050

CMD4545

K†4040

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p6795.7

Whiff%

p1018.1%

p1016.0%

xwOBA vs

p270.339

SI (46%)

CU (7%)

CH (16%)

FB-1.7 (67%)

SL-2.0 (10%)

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status FA

MLB Debut 2018

Service 6.552 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2027

First FA Year 2027

OPT

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026ROS	Ext	$0.9M	+0.0	$0.1M	-$0.8M
2027	Ext	$11M	—	—	—
Totals		$12M		$0.1M	-$11M

Options · projected decision
2028	CLUB OPT	$11.0M / $0.0M buyout	DECLINE
2029	CLUB OPT	$12.5M / $4.0M buyout	DECLINE

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2015	22	MIX MLE	3 levels	28	20	122	531	110	43	13	71%	4.4	16.6%	8.8%	7.8%	2.9%	4.35	4.38	+0.7
2015	22	MIX RAW	3 levels	28	20	122	531	110	43	13	71%	4.4	20.7%	8.1%	12.6%	2.4%	4.35	3.74	+1.7
2016	23	AA MLE	Biloxi Shuckers	13	13	70	304	56	22	5	100%	5.4	14.9%	8.0%	7.0%	1.6%	5.25	3.72	—
2016	23	AA RAW	Biloxi Shuckers	13	13	70	304	56	22	5	100%	5.4	18.4%	7.2%	11.2%	1.6%	5.25	3.37	—
2017	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	9	8	18	67	27	4	1	89%	2.0	40.3%	6.0%	34.3%	1.5%	1.02	1.27	—
2017	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	9	8	18	67	27	4	1	89%	2.0	40.3%	6.0%	34.3%	1.5%	1.02	1.46	—
2018	25	MIX MLE	3 levels	28	21	92	406	75	32	9	75%	3.3	16.0%	8.3%	7.7%	2.3%	4.78	4.04	+0.9
2018	25	MIX RAW	3 levels	28	21	92	406	75	32	9	75%	3.3	18.5%	7.9%	10.6%	2.2%	4.78	3.78	+1.2
2019	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	39	22	133	546	140	39	16	56%	3.4	25.1%	7.2%	18.0%	2.9%	3.32	3.45	+2.3
2019	26	MIX RAW	2 levels	39	22	133	546	140	39	16	56%	3.4	25.6%	7.1%	18.5%	2.9%	3.32	3.44	+2.3
2020	27	MLB MLE	Milwaukee Brewers	12	11	56	246	44	21	8	92%	4.7	17.9%	8.5%	9.3%	3.1%	5.30	4.37	+0.3
2020	27	MLB RAW	Milwaukee Brewers	12	11	56	246	44	21	8	92%	4.7	17.9%	8.5%	9.3%	3.3%	5.30	4.51	+0.3
2021	28	MLB MLE	Milwaukee Brewers	28	26	142	599	105	64	12	93%	5.1	17.5%	10.7%	6.8%	1.9%	3.22	4.02	+1.5
2021	28	MLB RAW	Milwaukee Brewers	28	26	142	599	105	64	12	93%	5.1	17.5%	10.7%	6.8%	2.0%	3.22	4.07	+1.4
2022	29	MIX MLE	2 levels	25	24	111	492	79	53	9	96%	4.4	15.2%	10.1%	5.1%	1.7%	4.62	4.02	+1.2
2022	29	MIX RAW	2 levels	25	24	111	492	79	53	9	96%	4.4	16.1%	10.8%	5.3%	1.8%	4.62	4.16	+1.0
2023	30	MIX MLE	2 levels	27	25	126	539	108	39	15	93%	4.7	19.7%	7.1%	12.5%	2.7%	4.00	3.85	+1.6
2023	30	MIX MLE	2 levels	27	25	126	539	108	39	15	93%	4.7	19.7%	7.1%	12.5%	2.7%	4.00	3.85	+1.6
2023	30	MIX RAW	2 levels	27	25	126	539	108	39	15	93%	4.7	20.0%	7.2%	12.8%	2.8%	4.00	3.86	+1.6
2024	31	MIX MLE	2 levels	30	14	105	464	70	44	11	47%	3.5	14.2%	9.2%	4.9%	2.4%	6.02	4.41	+0.2
2024	31	MIX MLE	2 levels	30	14	105	464	70	44	11	47%	3.5	14.2%	9.2%	4.9%	2.4%	6.02	4.41	+0.2
2024	31	MIX RAW	2 levels	30	14	105	464	70	44	11	47%	3.5	15.1%	9.5%	5.6%	2.4%	6.02	4.39	+0.2
2025	32	MIX MLE	2 levels	30	29	164	680	129	53	14	97%	5.5	18.0%	7.6%	10.5%	2.1%	3.72	3.71	+2.4
2025	32	MIX MLE	2 levels	30	29	164	680	129	53	14	97%	5.5	18.0%	7.6%	10.5%	2.1%	3.72	3.71	+2.4
2025	32	MIX RAW	2 levels	30	29	164	680	129	53	14	97%	5.5	19.0%	7.8%	11.2%	2.1%	3.72	3.61	+2.6
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			199	141	843	3607	651	313	88	71%	4.2	18.0%	8.7%	9.4%	2.4%	4.06	4.03	+8.8
▸ 2026 season
YTD	33	MLB MLE	San Francisco Giants	26	16	110	470	75	34	15	62%	4.2	16.0%	7.2%	8.7%	3.5%	4.02	4.56	+0.4
YTD	33	MLB MLE	San Francisco Giants	26	16	110	470	75	34	15	62%	4.2	16.0%	7.2%	8.7%	3.5%	4.02	4.56	+0.4
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	33	MLB RAW	SF	26	16	110	470	75	34	15	62%	4.2	16.0%	7.2%	8.7%	3.2%	4.02	4.42	+0.6
SO FAR	33	MLB RAW	SF	26	16	110	470	75	34	15	62%	4.2	16.0%	7.2%	8.7%	3.2%	4.02	4.42	+0.6
ROS	33	MLB MLE	SF	—	—	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	16.4%	7.6%	8.9%	2.6%	4.07	4.10	—
ROS	33	MLB CTX	SF	—	—	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	16.4%	7.6%	8.9%	2.4%	3.96	3.99	—
2026 TOT	33	MLB MLE	SF	—	—	110	470	75	34	15	—	—	16.0%	7.2%	8.7%	3.2%	4.02	4.56	+0.4
FULL	33	MLB A+C	SF	—	—	110	463	75	34	15	—	—	16.2%	7.3%	8.9%	3.2%	4.02	4.44	+0.4
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	34	MLB MLE	SF	15	15	88	369	58	30	11	100%	5.8	15.6%	8.1%	7.6%	3.1%	4.74	4.87	+0.0
2028	35	MLB MLE	SF	13	13	78	331	55	26	11	100%	6.0	16.7%	7.8%	8.9%	3.4%	4.86	4.94	-0.0
2027	34	MLB CTX	SF	15	15	88	372	58	30	11	100%	5.9	15.6%	8.1%	7.6%	2.9%	4.61	4.74	+0.0
2028	35	MLB CTX	SF	13	13	78	329	55	26	10	100%	6.0	16.7%	7.8%	8.9%	3.2%	4.72	4.80	-0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		227	169	1009	4308	764	369	109	74%	4.4	17.7%	8.6%	9.2%	2.5%	4.16	4.08	+9.9
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		45	33	200	854	151	73	22	74%	4.5	17.7%	8.6%	9.2%	2.5%	4.16	4.08	+2.0
Career	—	MLE		295	229	1249	5344	956	449	130	78%	4.2	17.9%	8.4%	9.5%	2.4%	4.21	3.99	+8.7
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		47	37	200	856	153	72	21	78%	4.2	17.9%	8.4%	9.5%	2.4%	4.21	3.99	+1.7

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Adrian Houser (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.34	17.4%	8.0%	2.4%	—	4.90	16.1%	8.2%	166	+0.56	—	—	—
Matt Garza R 2017 · 4.57 FIP	33	SP	4.57	15.7%	8.1%	3.2%	.283	—	—	—	—	—	4.00	365	80
Yovani Gallardo R 2018 · 4.33 FIP	32	SP	4.33	14.9%	9.6%	2.3%	.312	—	—	—	—	—	3.90	577	72
Ubaldo Jiménez R 2017 · 4.95 FIP	33	SP-	4.95	21.5%	9.0%	4.6%	.325	—	—	—	—	—	3.63	469	71
Dillon Gee R 2017 · 3.85 FIP	31	SP-	3.85	18.0%	5.9%	2.8%	.302	—	—	—	—	—	3.67	380	68
Edwin Jackson R 2017 · 5.02 FIP	33	SP-	5.02	18.7%	9.5%	4.2%	.278	5.25	16.9%	6.9%	252	+0.23	3.77	521	67
Miguel González R 2017 · 4.54 FIP	33	SP	4.54	14.6%	7.7%	3.1%	.285	6.88	7.6%	-1.5%	12	+2.34	3.72	469	65
Jordan Zimmermann R 2019 · 4.47 FIP	33	SP	4.47	16.3%	4.6%	3.9%	.332	—	—	—	—	—	3.57	731	64
Jason Hammel R 2016 · 4.37 FIP	33	SP	4.37	20.8%	7.7%	3.8%	.262	4.28	17.1%	11.3%	307	-0.09	3.54	645	64
Junior Guerra R 2018 · 3.99 FIP	33	SP	3.99	22.3%	9.0%	3.0%	.309	4.12	21.2%	9.1%	173	+0.13	3.18	646	63
Matt Cain R 2017 · 4.82 FIP	32	SP	4.82	13.2%	7.6%	3.4%	.322	—	—	—	—	—	4.82	294	63
Homer Bailey R 2019 · 4.06 FIP	33	SP	4.06	21.4%	7.5%	3.3%	.297	4.37	20.0%	11.0%	52	+0.31	4.06	509	62
Garrett Richards R 2021 · 4.47 FIP	33	SP-	4.47	18.6%	9.6%	3.2%	.328	3.17	19.5%	12.5%	43	-1.30	2.31	577	62
Clay Buchholz R 2018 · 3.61 FIP	33	SP	3.61	19.0%	6.4%	2.4%	.254	5.36	15.4%	9.5%	59	+1.75	2.51	433	61
Tom Koehler R 2017 · 4.66 FIP	31	SP-	4.66	22.4%	9.0%	4.2%	.298	—	—	—	—	—	4.38	474	61
Juan Delgadillo R 2015 · 4.54 FIP	32	SP	4.54	15.5%	7.2%	3.3%	.316	4.47	10.9%	4.7%	39	-0.07	4.47	143	60
Jerome Williams R 2015 · 4.72 FIP	33	SP-	4.72	13.4%	5.6%	3.7%	.326	5.81	11.7%	5.6%	74	+1.09	4.72	195	59
Leo Medrano R 2016 · 4.34 FIP	33	SP	4.34	11.0%	7.3%	2.3%	.312	—	—	—	—	—	3.76	222	59
Guillermo Moscoso R 2017 · 3.77 FIP	33	SP	3.77	14.5%	6.9%	1.8%	.270	4.64	14.9%	7.5%	176	+0.87	3.77	264	59
Jeremy Guthrie R 2015 · 5.44 FIP	36	SP-	5.44	12.7%	6.5%	4.7%	.309	4.85	11.6%	3.0%	87	-0.59	4.85	235	59
Andres Ivan Meza R 2019 · 4.33 FIP	32	SP	4.33	11.7%	7.7%	2.3%	.349	—	—	—	—	—	4.14	275	59

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.3	85	16.6%	7.9%	1.14	4.63
Josh Winckowski ('24)	1.2	77	18.3%	8.2%	1.13	4.21
Joe Biagini ('19)	1.6	81	19.1%	7.8%	1.28	4.86
Sal Romano ('21)	1.3	86	17.0%	8.8%	1.29	5.10
Luis Perdomo ('22)	2.3	90	16.6%	7.8%	1.08	5.09
Robert Gsellman ('21)	1.7	67	18.4%	7.8%	0.96	4.38
Roansy Contreras ('24)	1.2	77	19.5%	10.1%	1.36	4.78