Adrian Houser
P
San Francisco Giants
Age 33
RHP
6'4" / 227 lbs
MLB
peak 1.1 · 2026
2026 ROS PROJECTION80 act + 53 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 123114vR 105
ERA4.31
FIP4.37
K%16.3%
BB%8.0%
K-BB%8.3%
ROS IP53
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 133 IP
Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract
Statcast Percentiles
FB Velo
p6495.5
Whiff%
p1018.7%
K%
p1015.5%
xwOBA vs
p220.345
SI (45%)
CU (8%)
CH (17%)
FB-1.7 (63%)
SL-2.0 (11%)
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2015 | 22 | MIX | 3 levels | 28 | 20 | 122 | 531 | 110 | 43 | 13 | 71% | 4.4 | 16.6% | 8.8% | 7.8% | 2.7% | 4.35 | 4.32 | +1.5 |
| 2015 | 22 | MIX | 3 levels | 28 | 20 | 122 | 531 | 110 | 43 | 13 | 71% | 4.4 | 20.7% | 8.1% | 12.6% | 2.4% | 4.35 | 3.74 | +2.4 |
| 2016 | 23 | AA | Biloxi Shuckers | 13 | 13 | 70 | 304 | 56 | 22 | 5 | 100% | 5.4 | 14.9% | 8.0% | 7.0% | 1.3% | 5.25 | 3.58 | — |
| 2016 | 23 | AA | Biloxi Shuckers | 13 | 13 | 70 | 304 | 56 | 22 | 5 | 100% | 5.4 | 18.4% | 7.2% | 11.2% | 1.6% | 5.25 | 3.37 | — |
| 2017 | 24 | MIX | 2 levels | 9 | 8 | 18 | 67 | 27 | 4 | 1 | 89% | 2.0 | 40.3% | 6.0% | 34.3% | 1.5% | 1.02 | 1.27 | — |
| 2017 | 24 | MIX | 2 levels | 9 | 8 | 18 | 67 | 27 | 4 | 1 | 89% | 2.0 | 40.3% | 6.0% | 34.3% | 1.5% | 1.02 | 1.46 | — |
| 2018 | 25 | MIX | 3 levels | 28 | 21 | 92 | 406 | 75 | 32 | 9 | 75% | 3.3 | 16.0% | 8.3% | 7.7% | 2.1% | 4.78 | 3.94 | +1.4 |
| 2018 | 25 | MIX | 3 levels | 28 | 21 | 92 | 406 | 75 | 32 | 9 | 75% | 3.3 | 18.5% | 7.9% | 10.6% | 2.2% | 4.78 | 3.78 | +1.6 |
| 2019 | 26 | MIX | 2 levels | 39 | 22 | 133 | 546 | 140 | 39 | 16 | 56% | 3.4 | 25.1% | 7.2% | 18.0% | 3.1% | 3.32 | 3.58 | +2.8 |
| 2019 | 26 | MIX | 2 levels | 39 | 22 | 133 | 546 | 140 | 39 | 16 | 56% | 3.4 | 25.6% | 7.1% | 18.5% | 2.9% | 3.32 | 3.44 | +3.0 |
| 2020 | 27 | MLB | Milwaukee Brewers | 12 | 11 | 56 | 246 | 44 | 21 | 8 | 92% | 4.7 | 17.9% | 8.5% | 9.3% | 3.4% | 5.30 | 4.53 | +0.0 |
| 2020 | 27 | MLB | Milwaukee Brewers | 12 | 11 | 56 | 246 | 44 | 21 | 8 | 92% | 4.7 | 17.9% | 8.5% | 9.3% | 3.3% | 5.30 | 4.51 | +0.0 |
| 2021 | 28 | MLB | Milwaukee Brewers | 28 | 26 | 142 | 599 | 105 | 64 | 12 | 93% | 5.1 | 17.5% | 10.7% | 6.8% | 2.1% | 3.22 | 4.12 | +2.1 |
| 2021 | 28 | MLB | Milwaukee Brewers | 28 | 26 | 142 | 599 | 105 | 64 | 12 | 93% | 5.1 | 17.5% | 10.7% | 6.8% | 2.0% | 3.22 | 4.07 | +2.2 |
| 2022 | 29 | MIX | 2 levels | 25 | 24 | 111 | 492 | 79 | 53 | 9 | 96% | 4.4 | 15.2% | 10.1% | 5.1% | 1.8% | 4.62 | 4.11 | +1.7 |
| 2022 | 29 | MIX | 2 levels | 25 | 24 | 111 | 492 | 79 | 53 | 9 | 96% | 4.4 | 16.1% | 10.8% | 5.3% | 1.8% | 4.62 | 4.16 | +1.6 |
| 2023 | 30 | MIX | 2 levels | 27 | 25 | 126 | 539 | 108 | 39 | 15 | 93% | 4.7 | 19.8% | 7.3% | 12.5% | 3.0% | 4.00 | 4.01 | +2.1 |
| 2023 | 30 | MIX | 2 levels | 27 | 25 | 126 | 539 | 108 | 39 | 15 | 93% | 4.7 | 20.0% | 7.2% | 12.8% | 2.8% | 4.00 | 3.86 | +2.3 |
| 2024 | 31 | MIX | 2 levels | 30 | 14 | 105 | 464 | 70 | 44 | 11 | 47% | 3.5 | 14.4% | 9.6% | 4.8% | 2.4% | 6.02 | 4.44 | +1.2 |
| 2024 | 31 | MIX | 2 levels | 30 | 14 | 105 | 464 | 70 | 44 | 11 | 47% | 3.5 | 15.1% | 9.5% | 5.6% | 2.4% | 6.02 | 4.39 | +1.2 |
| 2025 | 32 | MIX | 2 levels | 30 | 29 | 164 | 680 | 129 | 53 | 14 | 97% | 5.5 | 18.3% | 7.9% | 10.4% | 2.3% | 3.72 | 3.84 | +3.0 |
| 2025 | 32 | MIX | 2 levels | 30 | 29 | 164 | 680 | 129 | 53 | 14 | 97% | 5.5 | 19.0% | 7.8% | 11.2% | 2.1% | 3.72 | 3.61 | +3.4 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 33 | MLB | San Francisco Giants | 18 | 14 | 80 | 354 | 55 | 27 | 13 | 78% | 4.4 | 15.5% | 7.6% | 7.9% | 3.7% | 4.95 | 4.77 | +0.2 |
| ROS | 33 | MLB | SF | 9 | 9 | 53 | 225 | 37 | 18 | 7 | 100% | 5.9 | 16.3% | 8.0% | 8.3% | 3.0% | 4.31 | 4.37 | +0.1 |
| ROS | 33 | MLB | SF | 9 | 9 | 53 | 224 | 36 | 18 | 6 | 100% | 5.9 | 16.3% | 8.0% | 8.3% | 2.9% | 4.25 | 4.31 | +0.2 |
| 2026 TOT | 33 | MLB | SF | — | — | 133 | 579 | 92 | 45 | 20 | — | — | 15.8% | 7.8% | 8.1% | 3.4% | 4.70 | 4.61 | +1.2 |
| 2026 FULL | 33 | MLB | SF | — | — | 133 | 563 | 92 | 45 | 19 | — | — | 16.3% | 8.0% | 8.3% | 3.5% | 4.67 | 4.63 | +1.2 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 34 | MLB | SF | 15 | 15 | 88 | 369 | 58 | 31 | 12 | 100% | 5.8 | 15.6% | 8.5% | 7.1% | 3.3% | 4.90 | 5.05 | +0.1 |
| 2028 | 35 | MLB | SF | 13 | 13 | 78 | 331 | 55 | 27 | 12 | 100% | 6.0 | 16.6% | 8.2% | 8.4% | 3.6% | 5.03 | 5.11 | -0.2 |
| 2029 | 36 | MLB | SF | 12 | 12 | 70 | 293 | 46 | 26 | 12 | 100% | 5.8 | 15.6% | 8.8% | 6.8% | 4.0% | 5.30 | 5.48 | -0.6 |
| 2027 | 34 | MLB | SF | 15 | 15 | 88 | 372 | 58 | 31 | 12 | 100% | 5.9 | 15.6% | 8.5% | 7.1% | 3.2% | 4.83 | 4.98 | +0.2 |
| 2028 | 35 | MLB | SF | 13 | 13 | 78 | 329 | 55 | 27 | 12 | 100% | 6.0 | 16.6% | 8.2% | 8.4% | 3.5% | 4.95 | 5.03 | -0.1 |
| 2029 | 36 | MLB | SF | 12 | 12 | 70 | 296 | 46 | 26 | 11 | 100% | 5.8 | 15.6% | 8.8% | 6.8% | 3.9% | 5.21 | 5.39 | -0.5 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 240 | 188 | 1102 | 4711 | 826 | 408 | 127 | 78% | 4.6 | 17.5% | 8.7% | 8.9% | 2.7% | 4.33 | 4.20 | +15.5 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 43 | 34 | 200 | 855 | 150 | 74 | 23 | 78% | 4.6 | 17.5% | 8.7% | 8.9% | 2.7% | 4.33 | 4.20 | +2.8 | ||
| Career | — | 287 | 227 | 1219 | 5228 | 939 | 447 | 131 | 79% | 4.2 | 18.0% | 8.6% | 9.4% | 2.5% | 4.27 | 4.04 | +19.3 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 47 | 37 | 200 | 858 | 154 | 73 | 22 | 79% | 4.2 | 18.0% | 8.6% | 9.4% | 2.5% | 4.27 | 4.04 | +3.2 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Adrian Houser (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.43 | 17.6% | 8.3% | 2.5% | — | 5.20 | 15.9% | 7.5% | 236 | +0.77 | — | — | — |
| Matt Garza R 2026 · 4.74 FIP | 33 | SP | 4.74 | 15.7% | 8.1% | 3.5% | .283 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.12 | 365 | 63 |
| Yovani Gallardo R 2025 · 4.35 FIP | 32 | SP | 4.35 | 14.9% | 9.6% | 2.4% | .312 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.91 | 577 | 61 |
| Juan Delgadillo R 2025 · 4.94 FIP | 32 | SP | 4.94 | 15.5% | 7.2% | 4.1% | .316 | 4.56 | 10.9% | 4.7% | 39 | -0.38 | 4.56 | 143 | 60 |
| Leo Medrano R 2026 · 4.34 FIP | 33 | SP | 4.34 | 11.0% | 7.3% | 2.3% | .312 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.74 | 222 | 60 |
| Jeremy Guthrie R 2029 · 5.42 FIP | 36 | SP- | 5.42 | 12.7% | 6.5% | 4.7% | .309 | 5.00 | 11.6% | 3.0% | 87 | -0.42 | 5.00 | 235 | 60 |
| Jonathan Castellanos R 2026 · 3.79 FIP | 33 | SP | 3.79 | 12.2% | 6.5% | 1.6% | .313 | 4.27 | 11.8% | 3.5% | 216 | +0.48 | 3.56 | 394 | 60 |
| Andres Ivan Meza R 2025 · 4.37 FIP | 32 | SP | 4.37 | 11.7% | 7.7% | 2.4% | .349 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.25 | 275 | 60 |
| Guillermo Moscoso R 2026 · 3.79 FIP | 33 | SP | 3.79 | 14.5% | 6.9% | 1.9% | .270 | 4.53 | 14.9% | 7.5% | 176 | +0.74 | 3.79 | 264 | 59 |
| Manuel Flores R 2026 · 4.08 FIP | 33 | SP | 4.08 | 17.1% | 7.4% | 2.7% | .291 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.55 | 515 | 59 |
| Jerome Williams R 2026 · 4.79 FIP | 33 | SP- | 4.79 | 13.4% | 5.6% | 3.8% | .326 | 5.94 | 11.7% | 5.6% | 74 | +1.15 | 4.79 | 195 | 59 |
| Mitch Talbot R 2027 · 3.70 FIP | 34 | SP | 3.70 | 13.7% | 5.6% | 1.9% | .281 | 5.05 | 13.2% | 8.9% | 59 | +1.35 | 3.70 | 162 | 59 |
| Kyle Davies R 2024 · 3.72 FIP | 31 | SP | 3.72 | 13.8% | 6.1% | 1.8% | .301 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.72 | 153 | 58 |
| Cory Riordan R 2023 · 4.19 FIP | 30 | SP | 4.19 | 14.3% | 5.0% | 3.0% | .341 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.19 | 154 | 58 |
| Ubaldo Jiménez R 2026 · 5.02 FIP | 33 | SP- | 5.02 | 21.5% | 9.0% | 4.7% | .325 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.67 | 469 | 58 |
| Matt Buschmann R 2025 · 4.71 FIP | 32 | SP | 4.71 | 12.8% | 8.4% | 3.0% | .325 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.92 | 277 | 57 |
| Stephen Fife R 2024 · 3.65 FIP | 31 | SP | 3.65 | 12.5% | 5.1% | 1.8% | .374 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.20 | 179 | 57 |
| Jarrett Grube R 2026 · 3.49 FIP | 33 | SP | 3.49 | 18.7% | 4.2% | 2.6% | .285 | 4.58 | 17.3% | 9.6% | 253 | +1.09 | 3.49 | 393 | 57 |
| Edwin Jackson R 2026 · 5.03 FIP | 33 | SP- | 5.03 | 18.7% | 9.5% | 4.2% | .278 | 5.32 | 16.9% | 6.9% | 252 | +0.29 | 3.69 | 521 | 56 |
| Tomoyuki Sugano R 2028 · 4.91 FIP | 35 | SP | 4.91 | 15.7% | 5.0% | 4.5% | .279 | 5.23 | 13.4% | 7.0% | 84 | +0.32 | 4.91 | 241 | 56 |
| Shawn Haviland R 2024 · 4.80 FIP | 31 | SP- | 4.80 | 16.3% | 8.1% | 3.8% | .261 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.57 | 283 | 56 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 4 | 83 | 16.4% | 8.4% | 1.28 | 4.86 |
| Joe Biagini ('19) | 4 | 81 | 19.1% | 7.8% | 1.28 | 4.86 |
| JC Ramírez ('17) | 3 | 83 | 17.0% | 7.7% | 1.30 | 4.33 |
| Josh Winckowski ('24) | 3 | 77 | 18.3% | 8.2% | 1.13 | 4.21 |
| Vance Worley ('17) | 3 | 77 | 15.4% | 8.5% | 1.02 | 4.73 |
| Adam Conley ('19) | 5 | 83 | 19.7% | 9.5% | 1.17 | 4.82 |
| Sal Romano ('21) | 3 | 86 | 17.0% | 8.8% | 1.29 | 5.10 |