Johnathan Harmon

Johnathan Harmon P Chattanooga Lookouts

Age 25 RHP 6'4" / 195 lbs AA Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2033 peak 1.3 · 2027

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 21 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 121113vR 105

ERA4.61

FIP4.61

K%18.2%

BB%8.8%

K-BB%9.4%

ROS IP22

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 21 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$3M ctrl surplus

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†4545

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2028

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2033

First FA Year 2034

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2028
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2028
2028	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.3	$1M	+$0.4M
2029	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.3	$1.0M	+$0.3M
2030	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.2	$0.6M	+$0.0M
2031	Arb-1	$1M	—	—	—
2032	Arb-2	$1M	—	—	—
2033	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$3M		$2M	+$0.7M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2022	21	ROK MLE	ACL Reds	2	1	2	7	2	0	0	50%	1.0	28.6%	0.0%	28.6%	0.0%	0.00	0.69	—
2022	21	ROK RAW	ACL Reds	2	1	2	7	2	0	0	50%	1.0	28.6%	0.0%	28.6%	0.0%	0.00	1.10	—
2023	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	23	16	92	399	97	35	8	70%	4.0	17.8%	10.2%	7.6%	2.6%	3.90	4.30	—
2023	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	23	16	92	399	97	35	8	70%	4.0	17.8%	10.2%	7.6%	2.6%	3.90	4.30	—
2023	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	23	16	92	399	97	35	8	70%	4.0	24.3%	8.8%	15.5%	2.0%	3.90	3.26	—
2024	23	A+ MLE	Dayton Dragons	10	10	46	194	41	13	5	100%	4.6	16.3%	7.7%	8.6%	2.5%	4.30	4.08	—
2024	23	A+ MLE	Dayton Dragons	10	10	46	194	41	13	5	100%	4.6	16.3%	7.7%	8.6%	2.5%	4.30	4.08	—
2024	23	A+ RAW	Dayton Dragons	10	10	46	194	41	13	5	100%	4.6	21.1%	6.7%	14.4%	2.6%	4.30	3.58	—
2025	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	8	7	29	127	25	12	1	88%	3.6	15.7%	8.7%	7.1%	1.2%	3.45	3.52	—
2025	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	8	7	29	127	25	12	1	88%	3.6	15.7%	8.7%	7.1%	1.2%	3.45	3.52	—
2025	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	8	7	29	127	25	12	1	88%	3.6	19.7%	9.4%	10.2%	0.8%	3.45	3.07	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	25	AAA MLE	Louisville Bats	27	24	125	539	97	48	23	89%	4.6	14.6%	9.2%	5.4%	5.1%	5.63	5.82	—
YTD	25	AAA MLE	Louisville Bats	27	24	125	539	97	48	23	89%	4.6	14.6%	9.2%	5.4%	5.1%	5.63	5.82	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	25	AA RAW	CIN	22	21	107	451	82	33	21	95%	4.9	18.2%	7.3%	10.9%	4.7%	5.32	5.05	—
2026	25	AAA RAW	CIN	5	3	18	88	15	15	2	60%	3.6	17.0%	17.0%	0.0%	2.3%	7.50	5.07	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	26	MLB MLE	CIN	20	20	122	516	99	44	15	100%	6.1	19.2%	8.6%	10.6%	2.9%	4.54	4.51	+0.6
2028	27	MLB MLE	CIN	20	20	120	508	99	44	15	100%	6.0	19.4%	8.6%	10.8%	2.9%	4.53	4.53	+0.5
2029	28	MLB MLE	CIN	19	19	117	493	96	43	15	100%	6.1	19.4%	8.7%	10.7%	3.0%	4.57	4.60	+0.4
2030	29	MLB MLE	CIN	19	19	111	470	91	42	15	100%	5.9	19.2%	8.9%	10.3%	3.2%	4.66	4.72	+0.2
2031	30	MLB MLE	CIN	17	17	105	442	84	41	15	100%	6.2	18.9%	9.2%	9.7%	3.4%	4.80	4.90	0.0
2032	31	MLB MLE	CIN	16	16	98	412	76	39	15	100%	6.1	18.5%	9.6%	8.9%	3.6%	4.98	5.10	-0.2
2027	26	MLB CTX	CIN	9	9	54	228	44	20	7	100%	6.0	19.2%	8.6%	10.6%	3.1%	4.67	4.64	+0.2
2028	27	MLB CTX	CIN	13	13	76	321	62	28	10	100%	5.8	19.4%	8.6%	10.8%	3.1%	4.66	4.66	+0.3
2029	28	MLB CTX	CIN	15	15	88	372	72	32	12	100%	5.9	19.4%	8.7%	10.7%	3.3%	4.70	4.73	+0.3
2030	29	MLB CTX	CIN	15	15	91	384	74	34	13	100%	6.1	19.2%	8.9%	10.3%	3.4%	4.80	4.86	+0.2
2031	30	MLB CTX	CIN	15	15	90	380	72	35	14	100%	6.0	18.9%	9.2%	9.7%	3.6%	4.95	5.05	0.0
2032	31	MLB CTX	CIN	14	14	87	367	68	35	14	100%	6.2	18.5%	9.6%	8.9%	3.9%	5.14	5.26	-0.2
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		81	81	485	2049	392	184	70	100%	6.0	19.1%	9.0%	10.1%	3.4%	4.83	4.51	+2.2
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		33	33	200	844	162	76	29	100%	6.0	19.1%	9.0%	10.1%	3.4%	4.83	4.51	+0.9
Career	—	MLE		70	58	294	1266	204	116	44	83%	4.2	16.1%	9.2%	6.9%	3.5%	4.63	4.82	+1.5
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		48	40	200	862	139	79	30	83%	4.2	16.1%	9.2%	6.9%	3.5%	4.63	4.82	+0.4

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Johnathan Harmon (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.61	18.2%	8.8%	2.8%	—	4.55	19.4%	10.7%	359	-0.06	—	—	—
Brandon White R 2023 · 4.93 FIP	23	SP	4.93	16.7%	10.3%	3.5%	.264	4.07	17.4%	10.5%	280	-0.86	3.90	299	81
Antonio Guzman R 2015 · 3.60 FIP	27	SP	3.60	18.8%	11.2%	1.2%	.328	3.47	20.6%	11.3%	170	-0.13	3.15	254	81
Chris Kachmar R 2021 · 4.29 FIP	24	SP	4.29	16.1%	11.4%	2.0%	.309	4.61	18.4%	9.4%	172	+0.32	4.29	360	80
Pat Gallagher R 2023 · 3.83 FIP	23	SP-	3.83	21.9%	8.3%	2.8%	.284	3.43	20.4%	11.2%	217	-0.40	3.07	280	80
Marcelo Perez R 2023 · 3.84 FIP	23	SP	3.84	18.0%	8.6%	2.1%	.288	4.99	14.7%	7.3%	238	+1.15	3.84	306	79
Cameron Foster R 2023 · 4.31 FIP	24	SP	4.31	18.9%	10.3%	2.7%	.329	4.05	20.9%	10.9%	132	-0.26	2.54	213	78
Hunter Dollander R 2022 · 3.92 FIP	25	SP-	3.92	19.2%	5.7%	3.1%	.311	6.77	17.6%	-0.7%	51	+2.85	3.92	106	78
Justin Topa R 2018 · 4.15 FIP	27	SP-	4.15	15.1%	7.9%	2.4%	.374	2.69	19.2%	12.6%	40	-1.46	2.67	280	77
Stolmy Pimentel R 2015 · 4.47 FIP	25	SP-	4.47	16.0%	10.5%	2.5%	.338	3.87	13.6%	3.1%	72	-0.60	3.87	143	77
Bradley Brehmer R 2023 · 4.43 FIP	23	SP	4.43	14.6%	9.5%	2.5%	.349	3.27	20.0%	11.5%	94	-1.16	2.83	165	77
Ryan Jennings R 2023 · 3.43 FIP	24	SP-	3.43	23.4%	11.9%	1.5%	.316	4.34	22.5%	9.8%	109	+0.91	3.43	142	77
Dylan Burns R 2022 · 4.21 FIP	25	SP	4.21	17.1%	10.8%	2.2%	.300	4.87	11.6%	-2.4%	41	+0.66	4.21	120	77
Burch Smith R 2017 · 3.93 FIP	27	SP	3.93	19.5%	12.6%	1.6%	.234	4.43	22.2%	10.5%	192	+0.50	3.50	382	76
Brandon Young R 2023 · 4.49 FIP	24	SP	4.49	17.9%	6.3%	3.8%	.338	3.90	20.6%	13.1%	353	-0.59	3.08	476	76
Jared Karros R 2023 · 4.77 FIP	22	SP	4.77	19.0%	8.9%	3.9%	.290	5.26	17.8%	8.3%	120	+0.49	3.36	191	76
David Griffin R 2021 · 4.43 FIP	25	SP	4.43	19.2%	11.9%	2.6%	.279	5.26	15.3%	5.8%	168	+0.83	4.43	239	76
Spencer Schwellenbach R 2023 · 4.00 FIP	23	SP	4.00	14.5%	8.5%	1.9%	.273	3.09	24.5%	19.9%	266	-0.91	3.05	318	76
Noah Gotsis R 2021 · 3.48 FIP	25	SP-	3.48	16.5%	6.5%	1.7%	.296	4.25	15.9%	8.6%	90	+0.77	3.48	138	76
Ubert Mejias R 2023 · 3.74 FIP	22	SP-	3.74	14.2%	7.9%	1.5%	.326	4.43	14.0%	8.0%	264	+0.69	3.74	326	75
Trent Palmer R 2022 · 4.79 FIP	23	SP	4.79	22.0%	10.4%	4.1%	.284	4.83	12.8%	-9.4%	22	+0.04	3.51	140	75

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	3.5	99	19.1%	8.9%	1.21	4.67
Aaron Sanchez ('22)	3.3	93	18.1%	10.0%	0.98	4.32
Zach Davies ('23)	5.2	116	17.5%	8.1%	1.16	4.36
Chad Kuhl ('24)	3.3	84	20.0%	10.4%	1.31	4.98
Alex Cobb ('23)	4.0	114	19.5%	6.6%	1.03	4.14
Daniel Mengden ('19)	1.5	73	17.3%	7.7%	1.24	4.68
Mike Foltynewicz ('21)	4.0	134	21.4%	7.7%	1.46	4.45