Johnathan Harmon

P Chattanooga Lookouts

Age 26 RHP 6'4" / 195 lbs AA peak 0.1 · 2028

Overview

AAPROSPECT

ETA2029MLB%2%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	23	A+CIN	10	10	46	4.30	3.58	21.1%	6.7%	—	K 16.3% · BB 7.7% · FIP 4.08
2025	24	MIX2 levels	8	7	29	3.45	3.07	19.7%	9.4%	—	K 15.7% · BB 8.7% · FIP 3.52
2026	25	MIX2 levels	27	24	125	5.63	5.10	18.0%	8.9%	—	K 14.7% · BB 9.2% · FIP 5.82
2027PROJ	26	MLBCIN	1	1	1	5.37	5.37	15.5%	9.1%	0.0
2028PROJ38% MLB	27	MLBCIN	5	5	32	5.28	5.30	16.1%	9.0%	0.0
2029PROJ60% MLB	28	MLBCIN	8	8	45	5.26	5.30	16.4%	9.1%	0.1

Next 3 projected WAR 0.1Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Career WAR0.0 WAR median (P10 -0.2 / P90 0.3, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 97%

CompsTravis Smith (age 29) · Josh Banks (age 26) · Andrew Quezada (age 26)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 135127vR 119

ERA5.37

FIP5.37

K%15.5%

BB%9.1%

K-BB%6.4%

Proj IP60

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 60 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†3040

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2022	21	ROK MLE	ACL Reds	2	1	2	7	2	0	0	50%	1.0	28.6%	0.0%	28.6%	0.0%	0.00	0.69	—
2022	21	ROK RAW	ACL Reds	2	1	2	7	2	0	0	50%	1.0	28.6%	0.0%	28.6%	0.0%	0.00	1.10	—
2023	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	23	16	92	399	97	35	8	70%	4.0	17.8%	10.2%	7.6%	2.6%	3.90	4.30	—
2023	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	23	16	92	399	97	35	8	70%	4.0	24.3%	8.8%	15.5%	2.0%	3.90	3.26	—
2024	23	A+ MLE	Dayton Dragons	10	10	46	194	41	13	5	100%	4.6	16.3%	7.7%	8.6%	2.5%	4.30	4.08	—
2024	23	A+ MLE	Dayton Dragons	10	10	46	194	41	13	5	100%	4.6	16.3%	7.7%	8.6%	2.5%	4.30	4.08	—
2024	23	A+ RAW	Dayton Dragons	10	10	46	194	41	13	5	100%	4.6	21.1%	6.7%	14.4%	2.6%	4.30	3.58	—
2025	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	8	7	29	127	25	12	1	88%	3.6	15.7%	8.7%	7.1%	1.2%	3.45	3.52	—
2025	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	8	7	29	127	25	12	1	88%	3.6	15.7%	8.7%	7.1%	1.2%	3.45	3.52	—
2025	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	8	7	29	127	25	12	1	88%	3.6	19.7%	9.4%	10.2%	0.8%	3.45	3.07	—
2026	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	27	24	125	539	97	48	23	89%	4.6	14.7%	9.2%	5.5%	5.1%	5.63	5.82	—
2026	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	27	24	125	539	97	48	23	89%	4.6	14.7%	9.2%	5.5%	5.1%	5.63	5.82	—
2026	25	MIX RAW	2 levels	27	24	125	539	97	48	23	89%	4.6	18.0%	8.9%	9.1%	4.3%	5.63	5.10	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	26	MLB	CIN	1	1	1	4	1	0	0	100%	1.0	15.5%	9.1%	6.4%	3.7%	5.37	5.37	+0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	27	MLB MLE	CIN	14	14	86	365	59	33	14	100%	6.2	16.1%	9.0%	7.1%	3.7%	5.28	5.30	+0.1
2029	28	MLB MLE	CIN	13	13	76	322	53	29	12	100%	5.9	16.4%	9.1%	7.4%	3.8%	5.26	5.30	+0.1
2030	29	MLB MLE	CIN	12	12	69	293	48	27	11	100%	5.8	16.5%	9.3%	7.2%	3.9%	5.31	5.38	+0.0
2031	30	MLB MLE	CIN	10	10	62	263	43	25	11	100%	6.2	16.3%	9.5%	6.8%	4.0%	5.43	5.53	-0.1
2028	27	MLB CTX	CIN	5	5	32	135	22	12	5	100%	6.4	16.1%	9.0%	7.1%	3.7%	5.28	5.30	+0.0
2029	28	MLB CTX	CIN	8	8	45	190	31	17	7	100%	5.6	16.4%	9.1%	7.4%	3.8%	5.26	5.30	+0.1
2030	29	MLB CTX	CIN	8	8	49	207	34	19	8	100%	6.1	16.5%	9.3%	7.2%	3.9%	5.31	5.38	+0.0
2031	30	MLB CTX	CIN	8	8	49	207	34	20	8	100%	6.1	16.3%	9.5%	6.8%	4.0%	5.43	5.53	-0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		29	29	176	742	121	69	29	100%	6.1	16.4%	9.3%	7.1%	3.9%	5.32	5.01	+0.8
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		33	33	200	844	138	79	33	100%	6.0	16.4%	9.3%	7.1%	3.9%	5.32	5.01	+0.9
Career	—	MLE		70	58	294	1266	204	116	44	83%	4.2	16.1%	9.2%	6.9%	3.5%	4.63	4.81	+0.1
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		48	40	200	862	139	79	30	83%	4.2	16.1%	9.2%	6.9%	3.5%	4.63	4.81	+0.1

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 AAChattanooga Lookouts · 107 IPFIP 5.05 → 5.94 (+0.90)K% 18.2% → 14.7%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	18.18%	—	×0.810	14.73%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	7.32%	—	×1.100	8.05%
HR / BF /BF	4.66%	÷1.000	×1.200	5.59%

Factors used: pitcher AA level factors — K ×0.81, BB ×1.10, HR ×1.20. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 5.05 → 5.94, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2026 AAALouisville Bats · 18 IPFIP 5.07 → 5.18 (+0.11)K% 17.0% → 14.7%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	17.05%	—	×0.860	14.66%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	17.05%	—	×0.900	15.34%
HR / BF /BF	2.27%	÷1.000	×1.100	2.50%

Factors used: pitcher AAA level factors (Triple-A 2023+ robo-zone set: walks improve on promotion) — K ×0.86, BB ×0.90, HR ×1.10. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 5.07 → 5.18, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 A+Dayton Dragons · 23 IPFIP 2.92 → 3.52 (+0.61)K% 20.4% → 15.7%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	20.43%	—	×0.770	15.73%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	7.53%	—	×1.150	8.66%
HR / BF /BF	1.08%	÷1.124	×1.250	1.20%

Factors used: pitcher A+ level factors — K ×0.77, BB ×1.15, HR ×1.25. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 125).

Result: FIP 2.92 → 3.52, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 ROKACL Reds · 6 IPFIP 3.47 → 4.42 (+0.94)K% 17.6% → 12.0%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	17.65%	—	×0.680	12.00%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	14.71%	—	×1.250	18.38%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷1.252	×1.400	0.00%

Factors used: pitcher ROK level factors — K ×0.68, BB ×1.25, HR ×1.40. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 150).

Result: FIP 3.47 → 4.42, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 A+Dayton Dragons · 46 IPFIP 3.58 → 4.08 (+0.50)K% 21.1% → 16.3%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	21.13%	—	×0.770	16.27%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	6.70%	—	×1.150	7.71%
HR / BF /BF	2.58%	÷1.285	×1.250	2.51%

Result: FIP 3.58 → 4.08, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 ADaytona Tortugas · 88 IPFIP 3.31 → 4.30 (+0.99)K% 24.1% → 17.8%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	24.08%	—	×0.740	17.82%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	8.64%	—	×1.180	10.19%
HR / BF /BF	2.09%	÷1.060	×1.300	2.57%

Factors used: pitcher A level factors — K ×0.74, BB ×1.18, HR ×1.30. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 112).

Result: FIP 3.31 → 4.30, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Johnathan Harmon (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.37	15.5%	9.1%	3.7%	—	5.32	16.3%	7.2%	232	-0.05	—	—	—
Travis Smith R 2002 · 5.28 FIP	29	SP	5.28	13.1%	8.2%	4.1%	.324	5.71	15.0%	9.0%	51	+0.43	3.67	105	83
Josh Banks R 2008 · 4.81 FIP	26	SP-	4.81	11.6%	7.3%	3.2%	.283	6.01	9.0%	6.0%	23	+1.20	4.81	108	82
Andrew Quezada R 2023 · 5.33 FIP	26	SP-	5.33	14.4%	9.5%	4.1%	.344	4.90	12.7%	5.3%	173	-0.43	4.40	412	81
Alejandro Martinez R 2015 · 4.46 FIP	26	SP-	4.46	17.5%	10.9%	2.7%	.393	4.24	9.2%	3.9%	53	-0.22	4.24	166	81
Nick Payero R 2024 · 4.21 FIP	24	SP-	4.21	16.5%	6.3%	3.1%	.285	5.81	16.6%	4.6%	107	+1.60	4.21	178	81
Chance Kirby R 2021 · 5.83 FIP	26	SP-	5.83	15.1%	10.0%	5.0%	.242	4.59	18.5%	11.2%	138	-1.24	4.14	325	81
Nestor Molina R 2016 · 4.83 FIP	27	SP	4.83	15.0%	8.0%	3.6%	.304	3.61	17.0%	10.2%	289	-1.22	3.01	401	81
Enrique Gonzalez R 2006 · 4.49 FIP	24	SP-	4.49	14.3%	7.4%	3.0%	.287	—	—	—	—	—	4.49	132	79
Hiram Burgos R 2013 · 4.89 FIP	25	SP	4.89	12.9%	7.9%	3.4%	.314	3.73	18.0%	8.7%	293	-1.16	3.40	384	79
Seth Shuman R 2024 · 5.47 FIP	26	SP	5.47	14.1%	8.0%	4.7%	.273	4.61	17.0%	11.3%	157	-0.86	3.16	357	79
Josh Hancock R 2004 · 6.37 FIP	26	SP-	6.37	12.3%	8.9%	5.8%	.262	4.15	14.7%	8.6%	104	-2.22	3.57	167	78
Luke Irvine R 2016 · 4.31 FIP	27	SP-	4.31	13.4%	9.8%	2.0%	.302	—	—	—	—	—	4.31	104	78
Derek True R 2024 · 4.90 FIP	23	SP-	4.90	18.5%	10.5%	3.7%	.333	4.95	17.6%	5.9%	73	+0.05	4.50	170	78
Carlos Torres R 2009 · 5.24 FIP	26	SP-	5.24	16.9%	11.5%	3.9%	.284	3.59	18.2%	7.3%	67	-1.65	2.89	604	77
Jake Bockenstedt R 2024 · 6.05 FIP	24	SP	6.05	17.0%	13.1%	5.0%	.322	4.35	16.8%	5.4%	126	-1.70	3.74	218	77
Darrell Rasner R 2007 · 5.15 FIP	26	SP	5.15	9.9%	7.2%	3.6%	.284	4.43	13.1%	5.7%	113	-0.72	4.07	158	77
Forrest Snow R 2015 · 5.03 FIP	26	SP-	5.03	16.1%	8.2%	4.1%	.263	4.14	21.8%	14.2%	256	-0.89	3.02	406	77
Britt Reames R 2000 · 4.49 FIP	26	SP	4.49	18.2%	12.9%	2.4%	.230	4.35	21.9%	11.5%	163	-0.14	3.76	204	77
Tyler Uberstine R 2022 · 4.19 FIP	23	SP-	4.19	19.5%	10.5%	2.6%	.302	4.27	22.8%	15.4%	121	+0.08	2.98	262	76
Bryce Morrow R 2015 · 4.31 FIP	27	SP-	4.31	12.8%	7.9%	2.4%	.316	5.44	10.1%	-0.2%	50	+1.13	4.31	125	76

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,234 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 480 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.8	71	16.2%	9.2%	1.47	5.32
Jose Cabrera ('02)	1.4	68	16.2%	7.9%	1.39	4.95
Lance Painter ('03)	2.2	56	16.7%	9.0%	1.32	5.24
Giovanni Carrara ('06)	2.4	59	16.3%	9.7%	1.41	4.69
Chuck Hartenstein ('66-'77, -1 WAR*)	1.5	59	13.7%*	7.2%*	1.50*	5.28*
Randy St. Claire ('84-'94, -0 WAR*)	1.3	50	19.0%*	8.4%*	1.39*	4.61*
Mike Willis ('77-'81, 0 WAR*)	1.5	59	18.4%*	9.6%*	1.45*	4.77*