Eury Pérez — OGILVIE

Eury Pérez P Miami Marlins

Age 23 RHP 6'8" / 220 lbs MLB Svc 3.0 · Ctrl thru 2028 peak 2.9 · 2028

2026 ROS PROJECTION143 act + 13 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 10798vR 90

ERA3.82

FIP3.89

K%26.5%

BB%9.8%

K-BB%16.7%

ROS IP13

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 156 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control+$2M ctrl surplus

Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF5555

CTRL5050

CMD6060

K†6565

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p9098.2

Whiff%

p7228.8%

p7025.8%

xwOBA vs

p500.312

FB (56%)

SI (18%)

CU (6%)

CH-0.9 (8%)

SL-1.0 (30%)

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status Arb-1

MLB Debut 2023

Service 3.000 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2028

First FA Year 2029

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026ROS	Arb-1	$0.3M	+0.1	$0.6M	+$0.3M
2027	Arb-2	$9M	+1.6	$12M	+$3M
2028	Arb-3	$16M	+1.8	$12M	+$0.0M (cut)
Totals		$10M		$25M	+$4M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2021	18	MIX MLE	2 levels	20	20	78	305	108	26	7	100%	3.9	26.5%	10.0%	16.4%	2.9%	1.96	3.70	—
2021	18	MIX RAW	2 levels	20	20	78	305	108	26	7	100%	3.9	35.4%	8.5%	26.9%	2.3%	1.96	2.50	—
2022	19	MIX MLE	2 levels	18	18	77	318	110	25	9	100%	4.3	27.6%	8.8%	18.8%	3.3%	3.97	3.71	—
2022	19	MIX RAW	2 levels	18	18	77	318	110	25	9	100%	4.3	34.6%	7.9%	26.7%	2.8%	3.97	2.74	—
2023	20	MIX MLE	2 levels	27	27	128	516	162	41	20	100%	4.7	29.4%	8.1%	21.3%	4.1%	3.16	3.91	+1.5
2023	20	MIX MLE	2 levels	27	27	128	516	162	41	20	100%	4.7	29.4%	8.1%	21.3%	4.1%	3.16	3.91	+1.5
2023	20	MIX RAW	2 levels	27	27	128	516	162	41	20	100%	4.7	31.4%	7.9%	23.4%	3.9%	3.16	3.56	+2.1
2025	22	MIX MLE	3 levels	28	28	118	480	132	42	14	100%	4.2	26.8%	8.7%	18.1%	3.2%	3.81	3.68	+1.7
2025	22	MIX MLE	3 levels	28	28	118	480	132	42	14	100%	4.2	26.8%	8.7%	18.1%	3.2%	3.81	3.68	+1.7
2025	22	MIX RAW	3 levels	28	28	118	480	132	42	14	100%	4.2	27.5%	8.8%	18.8%	2.9%	3.81	3.47	+2.0
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			65	65	326	1340	363	125	44	100%	5.0	27.1%	9.3%	17.8%	3.3%	3.81	3.78	+4.4
▸ 2026 season
YTD	23	MLB MLE	Miami Marlins	27	27	143	594	155	62	17	100%	5.3	25.8%	10.7%	15.1%	3.1%	3.90	3.96	+1.6
YTD	23	MLB MLE	Miami Marlins	27	27	143	594	155	62	17	100%	5.3	25.8%	10.7%	15.1%	3.1%	3.90	3.96	+1.6
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	23	AAA RAW	MIA	1	1	4	13	5	0	0	100%	3.7	38.5%	0.0%	38.5%	0.0%	2.45	-0.15	—
2026	23	MLB RAW	MIA	26	26	139	581	150	62	17	100%	5.4	25.8%	10.7%	15.1%	2.9%	3.94	3.88	+1.7
SO FAR	23	MLB RAW	MIA	26	26	139	581	150	62	17	100%	5.4	25.8%	10.7%	15.1%	2.9%	3.94	3.88	+1.7
ROS	23	MLB MLE	MIA	2	2	13	54	14	5	2	100%	6.4	26.5%	9.8%	16.7%	3.3%	3.82	3.89	+0.2
ROS	23	MLB CTX	MIA	2	2	13	55	15	5	2	100%	6.5	26.5%	9.8%	16.7%	3.1%	3.73	3.80	+0.2
2026 TOT	23	MLB MLE	MIA	—	—	156	648	169	67	19	—	—	26.1%	10.4%	15.7%	2.9%	3.90	3.96	+1.8
FULL	23	MLB A+C	MIA	—	—	152	642	169	67	19	—	—	26.4%	10.5%	15.9%	2.9%	3.98	3.80	+1.7
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	24	MLB MLE	MIA	28	28	160	673	182	62	21	100%	5.7	27.0%	9.2%	17.9%	3.1%	4.06	4.04	+1.6
2028	25	MLB MLE	MIA	30	30	174	733	199	64	22	100%	5.8	27.2%	8.7%	18.5%	3.1%	4.00	3.96	+1.9
2029	26	MLB MLE	MIA	29	29	175	739	202	64	23	100%	6.0	27.3%	8.7%	18.6%	3.1%	3.97	3.95	+2.0
2030	27	MLB MLE	MIA	29	29	172	728	199	64	23	100%	5.9	27.3%	8.8%	18.5%	3.1%	3.98	3.99	+1.9
2031	28	MLB MLE	MIA	29	29	172	728	198	65	23	100%	5.9	27.2%	8.9%	18.2%	3.2%	4.04	4.08	+1.7
2032	29	MLB MLE	MIA	27	27	165	695	185	64	23	100%	6.1	26.6%	9.2%	17.4%	3.4%	4.16	4.24	+1.3
2033	30	MLB MLE	MIA	26	26	155	653	169	62	23	100%	5.9	25.9%	9.5%	16.4%	3.6%	4.33	4.44	+0.8
2034	31	MLB MLE	MIA	24	24	144	609	153	60	23	100%	6.0	25.1%	9.8%	15.3%	3.8%	4.54	4.67	+0.4
2035	32	MLB MLE	MIA	22	22	134	564	137	58	23	100%	6.1	24.3%	10.2%	14.1%	4.0%	4.77	4.93	-0.0
2036	33	MLB MLE	MIA	20	20	122	517	121	55	22	100%	6.1	23.5%	10.7%	12.8%	4.3%	5.03	5.21	-0.4
2027	24	MLB CTX	MIA	27	27	152	642	173	59	19	100%	5.6	27.0%	9.2%	17.9%	2.9%	3.98	3.96	+1.6
2028	25	MLB CTX	MIA	28	28	165	697	189	61	20	100%	5.9	27.2%	8.7%	18.5%	2.9%	3.92	3.88	+1.8
2029	26	MLB CTX	MIA	28	28	166	701	191	61	20	100%	5.9	27.3%	8.7%	18.6%	2.9%	3.89	3.87	+1.9
2030	27	MLB CTX	MIA	27	27	164	692	189	61	20	100%	6.1	27.3%	8.8%	18.5%	2.9%	3.89	3.90	+1.8
2031	28	MLB CTX	MIA	27	27	164	692	188	62	21	100%	6.1	27.2%	8.9%	18.2%	3.0%	3.95	3.99	+1.6
2032	29	MLB CTX	MIA	26	26	156	659	175	60	21	100%	6.0	26.6%	9.2%	17.4%	3.2%	4.07	4.15	+1.2
2033	30	MLB CTX	MIA	24	24	147	621	161	59	21	100%	6.1	25.9%	9.5%	16.4%	3.4%	4.23	4.34	+0.8
2034	31	MLB CTX	MIA	23	23	137	578	145	57	21	100%	6.0	25.1%	9.8%	15.3%	3.6%	4.44	4.57	+0.4
2035	32	MLB CTX	MIA	21	21	127	536	130	55	21	100%	6.0	24.3%	10.2%	14.1%	3.8%	4.66	4.82	-0.0
2036	33	MLB CTX	MIA	19	19	116	490	115	52	20	100%	6.1	23.5%	10.7%	12.8%	4.1%	4.91	5.09	-0.4
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		319	319	1833	7701	2035	716	250	100%	5.7	26.4%	9.3%	17.1%	3.2%	4.09	3.83	+23.7
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		35	35	200	840	222	78	27	100%	5.7	26.4%	9.3%	17.1%	3.2%	4.09	3.83	+2.6
Career	—	MLE		120	120	544	2213	602	206	74	100%	4.5	27.2%	9.3%	17.9%	3.3%	3.44	3.82	+15.5
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		44	44	200	814	221	76	27	100%	4.5	27.2%	9.3%	17.9%	3.3%	3.44	3.82	+1.6

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Eury Pérez (OGILVIE)	—	—	3.94	28.6%	8.4%	3.3%	—	3.98	27.2%	18.3%	508	+0.04	—	—	—
Louis Varland R 2021 · 3.09 FIP	23	SP	3.09	25.4%	8.3%	2.0%	.313	4.24	22.1%	14.9%	435	+1.15	1.69	684	75
Ryne Nelson R 2021 · 3.86 FIP	23	SP	3.86	27.6%	9.5%	3.4%	.283	4.58	17.9%	11.0%	471	+0.72	3.62	824	74
Drey Jameson R 2021 · 4.16 FIP	23	SP	4.16	24.6%	8.7%	3.7%	.310	4.43	20.0%	11.5%	226	+0.27	4.16	397	74
Kyle Funkhouser R 2017 · 3.28 FIP	23	SP	3.28	24.5%	8.7%	2.1%	.329	4.40	19.0%	5.9%	193	+1.12	3.28	387	73
Gavin Williams R 2022 · 3.44 FIP	23	SP	3.44	26.2%	9.9%	2.4%	.238	3.89	24.9%	14.1%	398	+0.45	3.44	682	72
Cade Horton R 2023 · 3.22 FIP	21	SP	3.22	26.0%	8.8%	2.2%	.273	3.60	21.6%	13.8%	181	+0.38	3.22	270	72
Shohei Ohtani R 2018 · 3.43 FIP	24	SP	3.43	29.9%	10.4%	2.8%	.267	3.14	29.3%	21.4%	130	-0.29	1.76	613	72
Carson Ragsdale R 2021 · 4.21 FIP	23	SP	4.21	25.0%	10.7%	3.4%	.349	4.29	24.8%	14.4%	148	+0.08	2.00	352	71
Logan Gilbert R 2019 · 3.04 FIP	22	SP	3.04	24.6%	7.2%	2.0%	.278	3.42	23.8%	18.0%	305	+0.38	3.04	1,142	71
Bryce Miller R 2022 · 3.43 FIP	23	SP	3.43	24.2%	9.5%	2.1%	.255	4.11	22.2%	16.0%	435	+0.68	3.43	666	70
Hunter Greene R 2023 · 3.68 FIP	23	SP	3.68	30.5%	9.6%	3.5%	.330	3.03	29.1%	21.1%	286	-0.65	2.94	698	70
Chase Hampton R 2023 · 4.04 FIP	21	SP	4.04	26.1%	9.5%	3.5%	.296	7.55	16.7%	-0.5%	36	+3.51	4.04	142	69
Raisel Iglesias R 2015 · 3.54 FIP	25	SP	3.54	23.7%	7.1%	2.8%	.271	3.11	27.7%	19.6%	226	-0.43	1.34	820	69
Bobby Miller R 2022 · 3.69 FIP	23	SP	3.69	25.5%	8.6%	3.0%	.302	4.43	20.0%	10.0%	312	+0.74	2.41	487	69
McCade Brown R 2022 · 4.05 FIP	21	SP	4.05	23.0%	7.1%	3.6%	.349	4.50	24.1%	12.2%	117	+0.45	3.99	207	69
David Sandlin R 2023 · 4.05 FIP	22	SP	4.05	24.8%	6.5%	4.0%	.360	4.39	21.4%	12.1%	253	+0.34	3.94	312	68
Brody McCullough R 2023 · 3.58 FIP	23	SP	3.58	23.1%	10.3%	2.1%	.267	4.45	21.3%	11.7%	42	+0.87	3.58	129	68
Sawyer Gipson-Long R 2021 · 3.87 FIP	23	SP	3.87	24.0%	7.6%	3.4%	.360	4.60	22.6%	15.7%	243	+0.73	3.87	506	68
Mike Baumann R 2019 · 3.00 FIP	23	SP	3.00	22.8%	10.3%	0.9%	.269	3.92	21.1%	10.9%	170	+0.92	3.00	559	68
Thomas Harrington R 2023 · 4.07 FIP	22	SP	4.07	21.1%	9.0%	2.9%	.317	4.48	18.7%	11.9%	314	+0.41	3.33	441	68

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	8.3	152	26.4%	9.2%	1.32	4.23
Jon Gray ('24)	6.1	122	23.4%	7.8%	1.15	4.45
Trevor Bauer ('21)	5.6	159	26.8%	8.7%	1.13	3.68
Kenta Maeda ('24)	4.9	122	25.9%	6.9%	1.30	4.17
Julio Teheran ('23)	5.2	147	20.4%	8.8%	1.34	4.12
Joe Musgrove ('24)	5.3	117	23.9%	6.0%	1.13	3.73
Mike Clevinger ('23)	3.9	113	24.8%	8.7%	1.07	3.45