Eury Pérez
P
Miami Marlins
Age 23
RHP
6'8" / 220 lbs
MLB
Svc 3.0 · Ctrl thru 2028
peak 2.1 · 2029
2026 ROS PROJECTION89 act + 57 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 10898vR 89
ERA3.74
FIP3.82
K%27.8%
BB%9.1%
K-BB%18.7%
ROS IP57
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 146 IP
━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control
Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract
Statcast Percentiles
FB Velo
p9098.2
Whiff%
p7028.4%
K%
p7727.2%
xwOBA vs
p460.316
FB (55%)
SI (10%)
CU (6%)
CH-0.9 (9%)
SL-1.0 (30%)
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | 18 | MIX | 2 levels | 20 | 20 | 78 | 305 | 108 | 26 | 7 | 100% | 3.9 | 26.5% | 10.0% | 16.4% | 2.9% | 1.96 | 3.70 | — |
| 2021 | 18 | MIX | 2 levels | 20 | 20 | 78 | 305 | 108 | 26 | 7 | 100% | 3.9 | 35.4% | 8.5% | 26.9% | 2.3% | 1.96 | 2.50 | — |
| 2022 | 19 | MIX | 2 levels | 18 | 18 | 77 | 318 | 110 | 25 | 9 | 100% | 4.3 | 27.6% | 8.8% | 18.8% | 3.2% | 3.97 | 3.63 | — |
| 2022 | 19 | MIX | 2 levels | 18 | 18 | 77 | 318 | 110 | 25 | 9 | 100% | 4.3 | 34.6% | 7.9% | 26.7% | 2.8% | 3.97 | 2.74 | — |
| 2023 | 20 | MIX | 2 levels | 27 | 27 | 128 | 516 | 162 | 41 | 20 | 100% | 4.7 | 29.4% | 8.1% | 21.3% | 4.1% | 3.16 | 3.88 | +2.3 |
| 2023 | 20 | MIX | 2 levels | 27 | 27 | 128 | 516 | 162 | 41 | 20 | 100% | 4.7 | 31.4% | 7.9% | 23.4% | 3.9% | 3.16 | 3.56 | +2.8 |
| 2025 | 22 | MIX | 3 levels | 28 | 28 | 118 | 480 | 132 | 42 | 14 | 100% | 4.2 | 27.0% | 9.0% | 18.0% | 3.2% | 3.81 | 3.72 | +2.3 |
| 2025 | 22 | MIX | 3 levels | 28 | 28 | 118 | 480 | 132 | 42 | 14 | 100% | 4.2 | 27.5% | 8.8% | 18.8% | 2.9% | 3.81 | 3.47 | +2.7 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 23 | MLB | Miami Marlins | 17 | 17 | 89 | 362 | 100 | 34 | 13 | 100% | 5.3 | 27.2% | 9.7% | 17.5% | 3.7% | 3.73 | 4.08 | +1.1 |
| ROS | 23 | MLB | MIA | 11 | 11 | 57 | 241 | 67 | 22 | 8 | 100% | 5.2 | 27.8% | 9.1% | 18.7% | 3.5% | 3.74 | 3.82 | +0.5 |
| ROS | 23 | MLB | MIA | 11 | 11 | 57 | 241 | 67 | 22 | 8 | 100% | 5.2 | 27.8% | 9.1% | 18.7% | 3.4% | 3.69 | 3.77 | +0.5 |
| 2026 TOT | 23 | MLB | MIA | — | — | 146 | 603 | 167 | 56 | 21 | — | — | 27.7% | 9.3% | 18.4% | 3.6% | 3.73 | 3.98 | +2.4 |
| 2026 FULL | 23 | MLB | MIA | — | — | 143 | 603 | 167 | 56 | 21 | — | — | 27.7% | 9.3% | 18.4% | 3.5% | 3.81 | 3.87 | +2.6 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 24 | MLB | MIA | 20 | 20 | 114 | 480 | 136 | 41 | 17 | 100% | 5.7 | 28.2% | 8.6% | 19.7% | 3.5% | 4.09 | 4.08 | +1.8 |
| 2028 | 25 | MLB | MIA | 22 | 22 | 127 | 537 | 153 | 44 | 19 | 100% | 5.8 | 28.4% | 8.2% | 20.2% | 3.4% | 4.05 | 4.02 | +2.1 |
| 2029 | 26 | MLB | MIA | 22 | 22 | 134 | 566 | 161 | 47 | 20 | 100% | 6.1 | 28.5% | 8.2% | 20.3% | 3.4% | 4.02 | 4.01 | +2.2 |
| 2030 | 27 | MLB | MIA | 23 | 23 | 136 | 575 | 164 | 48 | 20 | 100% | 5.9 | 28.5% | 8.3% | 20.2% | 3.5% | 4.04 | 4.05 | +2.1 |
| 2031 | 28 | MLB | MIA | 23 | 23 | 136 | 575 | 163 | 49 | 21 | 100% | 5.9 | 28.4% | 8.5% | 19.9% | 3.6% | 4.09 | 4.13 | +2.0 |
| 2032 | 29 | MLB | MIA | 22 | 22 | 130 | 549 | 153 | 48 | 21 | 100% | 5.9 | 27.8% | 8.7% | 19.1% | 3.7% | 4.21 | 4.29 | +1.7 |
| 2033 | 30 | MLB | MIA | 20 | 20 | 122 | 516 | 140 | 46 | 20 | 100% | 6.1 | 27.1% | 9.0% | 18.1% | 3.9% | 4.38 | 4.50 | +1.3 |
| 2034 | 31 | MLB | MIA | 19 | 19 | 114 | 481 | 127 | 45 | 20 | 100% | 6.0 | 26.4% | 9.3% | 17.0% | 4.2% | 4.59 | 4.73 | +0.9 |
| 2027 | 24 | MLB | MIA | 19 | 19 | 108 | 456 | 129 | 39 | 15 | 100% | 5.7 | 28.2% | 8.6% | 19.7% | 3.4% | 4.04 | 4.03 | +1.7 |
| 2028 | 25 | MLB | MIA | 21 | 21 | 121 | 511 | 145 | 42 | 17 | 100% | 5.8 | 28.4% | 8.2% | 20.2% | 3.4% | 4.00 | 3.97 | +2.0 |
| 2029 | 26 | MLB | MIA | 21 | 21 | 127 | 536 | 153 | 44 | 18 | 100% | 6.0 | 28.5% | 8.2% | 20.3% | 3.4% | 3.97 | 3.96 | +2.1 |
| 2030 | 27 | MLB | MIA | 22 | 22 | 129 | 545 | 155 | 45 | 19 | 100% | 5.9 | 28.5% | 8.3% | 20.2% | 3.4% | 3.99 | 4.00 | +2.1 |
| 2031 | 28 | MLB | MIA | 22 | 22 | 129 | 545 | 155 | 46 | 19 | 100% | 5.9 | 28.4% | 8.5% | 19.9% | 3.5% | 4.04 | 4.08 | +2.0 |
| 2032 | 29 | MLB | MIA | 21 | 21 | 124 | 524 | 146 | 45 | 19 | 100% | 5.9 | 27.8% | 8.7% | 19.1% | 3.6% | 4.15 | 4.23 | +1.7 |
| 2033 | 30 | MLB | MIA | 19 | 19 | 116 | 490 | 133 | 44 | 19 | 100% | 6.1 | 27.1% | 9.0% | 18.1% | 3.8% | 4.32 | 4.44 | +1.3 |
| 2034 | 31 | MLB | MIA | 18 | 18 | 108 | 456 | 120 | 43 | 19 | 100% | 6.0 | 26.4% | 9.3% | 17.0% | 4.1% | 4.53 | 4.67 | +0.9 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 228 | 228 | 1292 | 5414 | 1511 | 468 | 193 | 100% | 5.7 | 27.9% | 8.6% | 19.3% | 3.6% | 4.02 | 3.79 | +24.3 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 35 | 35 | 200 | 838 | 234 | 72 | 30 | 100% | 5.7 | 27.9% | 8.6% | 19.3% | 3.6% | 4.02 | 3.79 | +3.8 | ||
| Career | — | 110 | 110 | 490 | 1981 | 548 | 179 | 69 | 100% | 4.5 | 27.7% | 9.0% | 18.6% | 3.5% | 3.36 | 3.81 | +9.1 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 45 | 45 | 200 | 808 | 224 | 73 | 28 | 100% | 4.5 | 27.7% | 9.0% | 18.6% | 3.5% | 3.36 | 3.81 | +3.7 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Eury Pérez (OGILVIE) | — | — | 3.94 | 28.9% | 8.4% | 3.3% | — | 4.03 | 28.4% | 20.1% | 375 | +0.09 | — | — | — |
| Ryne Nelson R 2026 · 3.62 FIP | 23 | SP | 3.62 | 27.6% | 9.5% | 3.0% | .283 | 4.49 | 17.9% | 11.0% | 471 | +0.87 | 3.47 | 824 | 74 |
| Louis Varland R 2026 · 3.20 FIP | 23 | SP | 3.20 | 25.4% | 8.3% | 2.2% | .313 | 4.25 | 22.5% | 14.9% | 435 | +1.05 | 1.21 | 660 | 74 |
| Drey Jameson R 2026 · 4.09 FIP | 23 | SP | 4.09 | 24.6% | 8.7% | 3.6% | .310 | 4.45 | 20.1% | 11.4% | 226 | +0.36 | 4.09 | 388 | 72 |
| Shohei Ohtani R 2027 · 3.52 FIP | 24 | SP | 3.52 | 29.9% | 10.4% | 2.9% | .267 | 3.23 | 29.3% | 21.4% | 130 | -0.29 | 1.85 | 613 | 72 |
| Logan Gilbert R 2025 · 3.38 FIP | 22 | SP | 3.38 | 24.6% | 7.2% | 2.6% | .278 | 3.46 | 23.8% | 18.0% | 305 | +0.08 | 3.22 | 1,084 | 71 |
| Kyle Funkhouser R 2026 · 3.45 FIP | 23 | SP | 3.45 | 24.5% | 8.7% | 2.4% | .329 | 4.35 | 19.0% | 5.9% | 193 | +0.90 | 3.45 | 387 | 71 |
| Gavin Williams R 2026 · 3.43 FIP | 23 | SP | 3.43 | 26.2% | 9.9% | 2.3% | .238 | 3.89 | 25.1% | 14.1% | 398 | +0.46 | 3.43 | 626 | 70 |
| Carson Ragsdale R 2026 · 4.20 FIP | 23 | SP | 4.20 | 25.0% | 10.7% | 3.4% | .349 | 4.27 | 25.2% | 14.2% | 148 | +0.07 | 1.96 | 352 | 69 |
| Raisel Iglesias R 2028 · 3.56 FIP | 25 | SP | 3.56 | 23.7% | 7.1% | 2.9% | .271 | 3.14 | 27.7% | 19.6% | 226 | -0.42 | 1.35 | 797 | 68 |
| Bobby Miller R 2026 · 3.70 FIP | 23 | SP | 3.70 | 25.5% | 8.6% | 3.0% | .302 | 4.65 | 20.4% | 9.6% | 312 | +0.95 | 2.44 | 471 | 68 |
| Kyle Brnovich R 2026 · 3.69 FIP | 23 | SP | 3.69 | 25.1% | 7.5% | 3.2% | .256 | 5.06 | 20.7% | 11.0% | 89 | +1.37 | 3.69 | 333 | 68 |
| Sawyer Gipson-Long R 2026 · 4.07 FIP | 23 | SP | 4.07 | 24.0% | 7.6% | 3.7% | .360 | 4.73 | 22.8% | 15.8% | 243 | +0.66 | 4.07 | 470 | 68 |
| Bryce Miller R 2026 · 3.36 FIP | 23 | SP | 3.36 | 24.2% | 9.5% | 2.0% | .255 | 4.19 | 22.2% | 16.0% | 435 | +0.83 | 3.06 | 621 | 67 |
| Griffin Canning R 2026 · 3.70 FIP | 23 | SP | 3.70 | 25.0% | 7.2% | 3.3% | .277 | 4.84 | 22.9% | 13.0% | 119 | +1.14 | 3.70 | 776 | 67 |
| Nolan McLean R 2026 · 4.82 FIP | 23 | SP | 4.82 | 20.0% | 10.1% | 3.9% | .292 | 3.14 | 26.4% | 16.6% | 269 | -1.68 | 3.07 | 379 | 66 |
| Hunter Greene R 2026 · 3.73 FIP | 23 | SP | 3.73 | 30.5% | 9.6% | 3.6% | .330 | 3.02 | 29.2% | 21.2% | 258 | -0.71 | 2.97 | 670 | 66 |
| Trey Gibson R 2026 · 3.48 FIP | 23 | SP | 3.48 | 26.1% | 9.4% | 2.5% | .306 | 4.91 | 19.2% | 5.6% | 71 | +1.43 | 3.24 | 283 | 66 |
| Hayden Wesneski R 2026 · 3.72 FIP | 23 | SP | 3.72 | 23.2% | 7.2% | 3.0% | .295 | 4.09 | 22.6% | 14.8% | 336 | +0.37 | 3.54 | 487 | 65 |
| Ben Gross R 2027 · 4.20 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.20 | 23.0% | 8.8% | 3.5% | .359 | 4.87 | 17.6% | 2.0% | 22 | +0.67 | 4.20 | 118 | 65 |
| Connor McCullough R 2026 · 4.70 FIP | 23 | SP | 4.70 | 21.8% | 6.4% | 4.8% | .280 | 4.46 | 20.0% | 12.2% | 108 | -0.24 | 3.62 | 222 | 65 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 9 | 123 | 28.0% | 8.6% | 1.40 | 4.15 |
| James Paxton ('24) | 8 | 106 | 25.8% | 7.7% | 1.12 | 3.89 |
| Kenta Maeda ('24) | 8 | 122 | 25.9% | 6.9% | 1.30 | 4.17 |
| Lance Lynn ('24) | 9 | 154 | 23.9% | 8.1% | 1.20 | 3.86 |
| Rich Hill ('23) | 9 | 104 | 25.0% | 8.0% | 1.12 | 3.65 |
| Jon Gray ('24) | 10 | 122 | 23.4% | 7.8% | 1.15 | 4.45 |
| Trevor Bauer ('21) | 7 | 159 | 26.8% | 8.7% | 1.13 | 3.68 |