Luke Keaschall — OGILVIE

Luke Keaschall2B Minnesota Twins

Age 23 R/R 6'0" / 190 lbs MLB Svc 0.953 · Ctrl thru 2031

2026 ROS PROJECTION355 act + 236 ros · stats below = ROS only

wRC+†vL 3778vR 185

AVG/OBP/SLG.261 / .349 / .363

PA236

HR3

SB10

K%17

BB%9

BABIP310

ISO102

MLB%100%

Value2026 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control

Tools · Splits · ContractCON 55 / POW 40

Toolsscout grade · Statcast %ile · 2025-2026

CONTACT55

Whiff%

902.5%

xwOBA

500.308

POWER40

Barrel%

163.9

Avg EV

1085.2

Bat Spd

3269.5

EYE60

Chase%

908.2%

SPEED60

Sprint

8428.8

Platoon Splits2025-2026 · 317 PA

vs LHP

vs RHP

Edge

116

201

—

wRC+

131

▶▶R

wOBA

259

356

▶▶R

ISO

086

130

▶▶R

BABIP

249

329

▶▶R

19.0%

11.4%

▶▶R

BB%

6.0%

9.0%

▶▶R

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status Pre-Arb

MLB Debut 2025

Service 0.953 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2031

First FA Year 2032

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026ROS	Ext	$0.3M	+0.8	$3M	+$3M
2027	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+2.6	$19M	+$19M
2028	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+2.8	$19M	+$19M
2029	Arb-1	$6M	+2.7	$17M	+$13M
2030	Arb-2	$10M	+2.7	$16M	+$9M
2031	Arb-3	$14M	+2.5	$14M	+$5M
Totals		$32M		$89M	+$67M

Career Stats + Projections

Viewactual = stats as recorded (prior seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2023	20	A	2 teams	—	128	110	27	8	1	2	11	35	4	9	0	245	336	391	727	145	329	27	9	328	109	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	20	A	2 teams	—	128	104	31	10	1	3	17	23	4	9	0	298	416	500	916	202	346	18	13	398	162	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	21	AA	2 teams	—	464	399	94	15	1	15	42	112	18	23	6	236	336	391	726	155	285	24	9	316	100	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	21	AA	2 teams	—	464	379	115	21	1	15	62	80	18	23	6	303	425	483	908	179	346	17	13	403	166	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	22	MLB	2 teams	—	325	283	82	16	1	5	30	50	7	25	5	290	372	406	778	117	330	15	9	343	121	+8	+3	-1	+1	+9	2.0
2025	22	MLB	2 teams	—	325	277	80	16	1	5	36	46	7	25	5	289	384	408	792	119	325	14	11	355	130	+11	+3	-1	+1	+9	2.4
▸ 2026 Season (ACT · ROS-MLE · ROS-CTX · FULL)
YTD	23	MLB	MIN	—	355	306	79	14	1	4	34	54	10	12	4	258	351	350	701	92	296	15	10	314	98	-1	+1	+0	+1	+10	1.2
YTD	23	MLB	MIN	—	355	306	79	14	1	4	34	54	10	12	4	258	351	350	701	92	296	15	10	319	102	+1	+1	+0	+1	+10	1.4
ROS	23	MLB	MIN	100%	236	206	54	10	1	3	22	40	6	10	3	261	349	363	712	102	301	17	9	321	104	+1	+1	-1	+1	+7	0.9
ROS	23	MLB	MIN	100%	237	207	54	10	1	3	22	40	6	10	3	261	349	362	711	101	301	17	9	303	90	-3	+1	-1	+1	+7	0.5
FULL	23	MLB	MIN	—	592	513	133	24	2	7	56	94	16	22	7	259	350	355	705	96	301	16	9	309	95	-3	+2	-1	+2	+17	1.7
TOT	23	MLB	MIN	—	591	512	133	24	2	7	56	94	16	22	7	259	351	355	706	96	302	16	9	317	100	+0	+2	-1	+2	+17	2.0
▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘPARK-NEUTRAL MLE · ALL-LEVEL PT ⓘ
2027	24	MLB	MIN	98%	580	507	133	24	2	10	54	96	14	25	6	262	350	377	726	114	302	17	9	327	109	+6	+3	-2	+2	+16	2.5
2028	25	MLB	MIN	98%	568	495	130	23	2	10	54	93	14	25	6	263	352	378	729	115	303	16	10	331	111	+7	+3	-2	+2	+16	2.6
2029	26	MLB	MIN	98%	557	485	128	23	2	10	53	91	14	24	6	264	353	381	735	118	303	16	10	332	112	+8	+2	-2	+2	+16	2.6
2030	27	MLB	MIN	98%	546	474	125	22	2	10	53	90	14	24	6	264	355	382	737	118	302	16	10	332	112	+8	+2	-2	+2	+15	2.6
2031	28	MLB	MIN	98%	535	465	122	21	2	10	52	89	13	22	6	262	353	381	733	118	302	17	10	331	111	+7	+2	-3	+2	+15	2.3
2032	29	MLB	MIN	98%	524	455	118	21	1	9	51	88	13	20	5	259	351	369	720	110	301	17	10	329	110	+6	+2	-4	+2	+15	2.1
2033	30	MLB	MIN	98%	514	446	115	20	1	9	50	88	13	18	4	258	350	368	717	110	300	17	10	326	108	+4	+2	-4	+2	+15	1.9
2034	31	MLB	MIN	98%	503	437	110	19	1	8	49	87	12	15	4	252	343	355	698	103	297	17	10	321	104	+2	+1	-5	+2	+14	1.5
2035	32	MLB	MIN	98%	493	430	107	18	1	8	48	88	12	12	3	249	341	351	692	102	293	18	10	315	99	-0	+1	-6	+2	+14	1.1
2036	33	MLB	MIN	98%	425	371	90	15	1	6	41	78	10	8	2	243	334	337	671	94	288	18	10	307	93	-3	+1	-6	+2	+12	0.5
2027	24	MLB	MIN	98%	568	496	129	23	2	9	53	94	14	25	6	260	348	369	717	109	303	17	9	309	95	-3	+3	-2	+2	+16	1.5
2028	25	MLB	MIN	98%	557	485	128	23	2	10	53	91	14	24	6	264	353	381	735	118	303	16	10	313	97	-2	+2	-2	+2	+16	1.7
2029	26	MLB	MIN	98%	546	475	125	22	2	10	52	89	14	24	6	263	353	381	734	118	303	16	10	314	98	-1	+2	-2	+2	+15	1.7
2030	27	MLB	MIN	98%	535	465	123	22	2	10	52	88	13	23	6	265	355	385	740	120	302	16	10	314	98	-1	+2	-2	+2	+15	1.6
2031	28	MLB	MIN	98%	524	455	120	21	2	10	51	87	13	22	5	264	355	385	739	121	302	17	10	313	98	-1	+2	-3	+2	+15	1.5
2032	29	MLB	MIN	98%	514	446	115	20	1	9	50	86	13	20	5	258	350	368	717	110	301	17	10	311	96	-2	+2	-4	+2	+15	1.3
2033	30	MLB	MIN	98%	504	437	113	20	1	9	49	86	13	17	4	259	351	371	721	112	300	17	10	308	94	-4	+2	-4	+2	+14	1.0
2034	31	MLB	MIN	98%	493	430	109	19	1	8	48	86	12	15	4	253	345	358	703	105	297	17	10	304	90	-5	+1	-5	+2	+14	0.7
2035	32	MLB	MIN	98%	483	421	104	18	1	7	47	86	12	12	3	247	340	344	684	97	293	18	10	297	86	-8	+1	-5	+2	+14	0.3
2036	33	MLB	MIN	98%	416	363	88	14	1	6	40	76	10	8	2	242	334	336	670	94	288	18	10	289	80	-10	+1	-6	+1	+12	-0.1
▸ Career Totals
Career	—			—	5584	4862	1263	226	16	95	536	938	139	214	53	260	350	371	721	112	303	17	10	310	95	-30	+22	-38	+20	+158	13.5
/ 162G	—			—	650	566	147	26	2	11	62	109	16	25	6	260	349	371	720	111	303	17	10	310	95	-3	+3	-4	+2	+18	1.6
Career	—			—	6398	5563	1435	255	19	115	610	1125	164	260	62	258	349	373	721	115	302	18	10	326	107	+54	+27	-39	+23	+181	25.1
/ 162G	—			—	650	565	146	26	2	12	62	114	17	26	6	258	349	375	725	117	302	18	10	326	107	+5	+3	-4	+2	+18	2.6

Historical Stats — Raw (Per Stint)

Actual MLB + MiLB stats as they happened, one row per stint at each level. Use this to see what really got recorded; the table above shows MLB-equivalent translations + projections.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2023	20	A+	Cedar Rapids Kernels	—	34	32	10	2	0	2	2	3	0	1	0	312	353	562	915	250	296	9	6	399	163	+2	+0	—	—	+1	0.4
2023	20	A	Fort Myers Mighty Mussels	—	94	72	21	8	1	1	15	20	4	8	0	292	440	472	912	181	370	21	16	397	162	+7	+2	—	—	+3	1.1
2024	21	AA	Wichita Wind Surge	—	267	221	62	9	1	8	32	51	11	9	5	281	398	439	837	158	327	19	12	375	145	+14	-0	—	—	+8	2.1
2024	21	A+	Cedar Rapids Kernels	—	197	158	53	12	0	7	30	29	7	14	1	335	462	544	1.006	209	371	15	15	441	195	+21	+2	—	—	+6	3.0
2025	22	MLB	Minnesota Twins	—	207	182	55	14	0	4	19	29	5	14	3	302	383	445	829	143	340	14	9	371	142	+10	+2	-1	+1	+6	1.8
2025	22	AAA	St. Paul Saints	—	118	95	25	2	1	1	17	17	2	11	2	263	386	337	723	74	296	14	14	327	108	+1	+1	—	—	+3	0.6
▸ Career Totals (raw MLB only — historical actual)
MLB Career	—			—	207	182	55	14	0	4	19	29	5	14	3	302	383	445	829	143	340	14	9	371	142	+10	+2	-1	+1	+6	1.8

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Top row of each card is career totals; bottom row is per-162-game rates. Pool: 727 completed hitter careers (2000-2024).

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	YRS	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Denard Spanlast yr '18 career totals — 11 seasons, 5,956 PA	11	5,956	71	185	281	347	398	+8	-3	26.3	24.1
	/162	664	8	21	281	347	398	+0.9	-0.4	2.9	pk7: 22
#2Julio Lugolast yr '10 career totals — 11 seasons, 5,290 PA	11	5,290	80	198	270	334	386	+31	+25	23.8	23.1
	/162	664	10	25	270	334	386	+3.9	+3.1	3.0	pk7: 22
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 13 projected seasons	13	6,278	106	247	260	346	372	+22	-3	27.3	22.8
	/162	664	11	26	260	346	372	+2.4	-0.3	2.9	pk7: 18
#3Jason Kipnislast yr '20 career totals — 10 seasons, 4,984 PA	10	4,984	126	136	260	333	416	+18	-11	22.6	21.9
	/162	664	17	18	260	333	416	+2.4	-1.4	3.0	pk7: 21
#4Austin Jacksonlast yr '18 career totals — 9 seasons, 4,653 PA	9	4,653	65	114	273	333	396	+17	+13	19.5	19.5
	/162	664	9	16	273	333	396	+2.4	+1.9	2.8	pk7: 19
#5Felipe Lopezlast yr '11 career totals — 11 seasons, 4,864 PA	11	4,864	90	124	264	333	391	+31	-19	17.6	18.1
	/162	664	12	17	264	333	391	+4.2	-2.6	2.4	pk7: 19
#6César Hernándezlast yr '22 career totals — 10 seasons, 4,797 PA	10	4,797	71	91	267	341	375	+17	+1	17.8	18.0
	/162	664	10	13	267	341	375	+2.4	+0.2	2.5	pk7: 18

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Luke Keaschall (OGILVIE)	23	55	40	60	60	259/351/355	96	302	7	22	16%	9%	100	+2.0	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
●Elvis Andrus 2012 · MLB	23	56→61	37→50	55→60	55	263/331/336	73	298	4	30	13%	9%	92	+1.2	265/326/343	78	306	4	25	14%	8%	91	+1.1	277/330/410	133	307	11	23	13%	7%	107	+2.4
●Desmond Jennings 2010 · AAA	23	55→59	45→50	63→60	51	268/330/405	136	307	11	34	16%	8%	109	+2.4	247/316/380	133	296	12	33	19%	8%	97	+1.5	245/325/405	160	290	16	28	20%	9%	105	+2.2
●Maikel Garcia 2023 · MLB	23	50→59	42→50	57→60	47	243/299/352	109	307	9	27	23%	8%	82	+0.5	255/311/368	113	311	9	26	20%	8%	92	+1.2	263/322/384	122	308	9	27	17%	8%	99	+1.8
✕Jose Tabata 2012 · MLB	23	57→60	41→45	53→55	52	272/332/376	104	313	7	25	15%	8%	102	+1.9	259/319/362	103	301	6	13	15%	7%	93	+1.3	259/316/352	93	300	4	8	14%	6%	87	+0.6
●Starlin Castro 2013 · MLB	23	59→63	44→50	53→50	47	289/329/422	134	323	10	18	14%	5%	113	+2.6	267/307/390	123	309	11	10	17%	5%	96	+1.5	284/326/431	147	328	17	3	18%	5%	111	+2.5
✕Dalton Pompey 2016 · MLB	23	54→59	42→45	59→55	47	257/313/366	109	322	8	26	22%	7%	92	+1.2	238/294/331	93	312	7	21	24%	7%	75	-0.0	230/290/316	85	308	7	20	26%	7%	67	-0.2
●Matt Duffy 2015 · MLB	24	57→63	42→45	53→50	46	272/321/382	110	328	9	17	19%	6%	99	+1.7	275/321/395	120	320	10	13	17%	6%	102	+1.9	283/337/389	106	328	9	12	16%	6%	105	+1.8
✕Jose Aguilar 2013 · AAA	23	57→61	41→45	52→55	46	271/322/371	100	315	7	16	16%	6%	97	+1.5	277/329/386	109	315	9	16	14%	6%	104	+2.0	284/341/397	113	319	9	16	13%	6%	107	+1.5
●Amed Rosario 2019 · MLB	23	54→60	43→50	55	41	259/295/376	117	321	9	21	22%	4%	87	+0.8	271/308/404	133	327	13	16	20%	5%	99	+1.7	276/314/398	122	328	9	15	18%	5%	99	+1.6
●Brice Turang 2023 · AAA	23	50→60	43→50	56→60	47	243/300/350	107	307	11	23	24%	8%	82	+0.5	250/312/363	113	307	11	31	21%	8%	91	+1.1	270/345/412	142	330	14	32	21%	10%	114	+2.5
✕Luis Rivas 2002 · MLB	22	54→55	41→50	56→55	49	260/313/362	102	298	8	26	16%	6%	90	+1.0	254/301/381	127	286	10	20	15%	6%	91	+1.1	251/295/390	139	278	11	20	14%	5%	88	+0.6
✕Austin Martin 2023 · AA	24	48→52	38→40	57→60	51	222/323/301	79	285	5	25	22%	9%	82	+0.5	239/325/325	86	295	6	24	19%	9%	88	+0.9	265/358/344	79	323	3	22	17%	11%	104	+1.1
●Otto Lopez 2022 · AAA	23	54→64	39→50	53→55	43	257/305/352	95	325	6	18	22%	6%	85	+0.7	257/306/354	97	318	6	19	20%	6%	85	+0.7	285/333/422	137	320	13	21	15%	6%	112	+2.1
●Tony Kemp 2015 · AA	23	56→61	41→45	56→55	53	266/338/376	110	311	7	22	16%	8%	105	+2.1	269/328/358	89	315	5	22	15%	7%	95	+1.4	277/332/373	97	313	7	21	13%	7%	98	+1.3
✕Tyler Pastornicky 2012 · AAA	22	53→61	41→45	55→60	48	257/302/358	101	291	9	26	15%	6%	85	+0.7	250/292/343	93	295	7	14	17%	5%	77	+0.1	246/290/326	80	295	5	12	18%	5%	68	-0.3
●Rafael Furcal 2002 · MLB	24	57→63	40→50	57→60	56	272/346/370	98	315	7	35	16%	10%	107	+2.2	277/334/402	125	312	10	24	14%	8%	110	+2.4	284/352/424	140	310	12	33	12%	9%	118	+3.4
●Greg Allen 2017 · AA	24	53→57	40→45	55→65	50	250/328/345	95	297	6	26	17%	7%	94	+1.3	245/311/339	94	308	6	27	21%	6%	85	+0.7	256/329/362	106	327	7	35	22%	6%	95	+1.0
★Jean Segura 2014 · MLB	24	56→63	43→50	61→60	44	274/312/387	113	313	9	35	16%	5%	96	+1.5	269/307/378	109	305	9	26	15%	4%	92	+1.2	306/353/448	141	340	13	24	13%	6%	126	+3.7
●Cristian Guzman 2001 · MLB	23	50→60	44→50	62→55	50	242/295/380	137	274	8	22	15%	7%	88	+0.9	270/306/405	135	304	9	20	14%	5%	98	+1.6	301/333/418	117	332	7	5	11%	4%	110	+1.8
●Adam Eaton 2013 · MLB	24	61→65	42→45	57→55	50	289/364/403	115	346	8	27	18%	8%	123	+3.3	276/342/387	111	331	7	20	17%	8%	109	+2.4	285/357/412	127	339	9	15	17%	8%	119	+3.3