Luke Keaschall — OGILVIE

Luke Keaschall2B Minnesota Twins

Age 23 R/R 6'0" / 190 lbs MLB Svc 0.953 · Ctrl thru 2031

2026 ROS PROJECTION561 act + 10 ros · stats below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+†vL 113113vR 111

AVG/OBP/SLG.222 / .300 / .222

PA10

HR0

K%20

BB%10

BABIP306

ISO113

MLB%100%

Value2026 · WAR

2026 MLB RUNS · solid = so far · light = projected ROS (park-applied)

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control+$71M ctrl surplus

Tools · Recent Form · Splits · ContractCON 55 / POW 40

Toolsscout grade · Statcast %ile · 2025-2026

CONTACT55

Whiff%

901.8%

xAVG

480.250

POWER40

Barrel%

174.0

Avg EV

1085.7

Bat Spd

3269.5

EYE60

Chase%

906.0%

SPEED60

Sprint

8128.7

Recent Formrolling true talent ⓘ

K%14%▲▲12% over 112 PA (30d) · proj 17%

BB%8%▼8% over 166 PA (45d) · proj 9%

ISO.132▲.150 over 173 AB (60d) · proj .113xISO .113 vs .115 prior — approach flat: likely noise/luck

HR/BB3.3%▲4.1% over 121 BBE (45d) · proj 2.4%barrel% 3.5% vs 5.2% prior — approach does NOT back the move

BABIP.309·.324 over 142 BIP (60d) · proj .306xBABIP .274 vs .329 prior

SLASH.278/.356/.410▲▲proj .261/.345/.374

Platoon Splits2025-2026 · 317 PA

vs LHP

vs RHP

Edge

116

201

—

wRC+

127

▶▶R

wOBA

259

356

▶▶R

ISO

086

130

▶▶R

BABIP

249

329

▶▶R

19.0%

11.4%

▶▶R

BB%

6.0%

9.0%

▶▶R

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status Pre-Arb

MLB Debut 2025

Service 0.953 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2031

First FA Year 2032

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026ROS	Ext	$0.1M	+0.2	$0.8M	+$0.7M
2027	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+2.7	$21M	+$20M
2028	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+2.8	$21M	+$20M
2029	Arb-1	$7M	+2.8	$19M	+$14M
2030	Arb-2	$12M	+2.7	$17M	+$9M
2031	Arb-3	$17M	+2.5	$14M	+$4M
Totals		$39M		$92M	+$67M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2023	20	A+	Cedar Rapids Kernels	—	34	32	10	2	0	2	2	3	0	1	0	312	353	562	915	250	296	9	6	399	156	+2	+0	—	—	+1	0.3
2023	20	A	Fort Myers Mighty Mussels	—	94	72	21	8	1	1	15	20	4	8	0	292	440	472	912	181	370	21	16	397	155	+6	+2	—	—	+2	1.0
2024	21	AA	Wichita Wind Surge	—	267	221	62	9	1	8	32	51	11	9	5	281	398	439	837	158	327	19	12	375	140	+13	-0	—	—	+6	1.9
2024	21	A+	Cedar Rapids Kernels	—	197	158	53	12	0	7	30	29	7	14	1	335	462	544	1.006	209	371	15	15	441	184	+20	+2	—	—	+4	2.7
2025	22	MLB	Minnesota Twins	—	207	182	55	14	0	4	19	29	5	14	3	302	383	445	829	143	340	14	9	371	137	+9	+2	-1	+1	+4	1.6
2025	22	AAA	St. Paul Saints	—	118	95	25	2	1	1	17	17	2	11	2	263	386	337	723	74	296	14	14	327	108	+1	+1	—	—	+3	0.5
▸ Career Totals (raw MLB only — historical actual)
MLB Career	—			—	207	182	55	14	0	4	19	29	5	14	3	302	383	445	829	143	340	14	9	371	137	+9	+2	-1	+1	+4	1.6
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2023	20	A+ MLE	Cedar Rapids Kernels	—	34	33	8	2	0	1	1	4	0	1	0	242	265	394	659	152	258	12	3	311	97	-0	+0	—	—	+1	0.1
2023	20	A MLE	Fort Myers Mighty Mussels	—	94	77	19	7	1	1	10	29	4	8	0	247	363	403	765	156	343	31	11	339	116	+2	+2	—	—	+2	0.5
2024	21	AA MLE	Wichita Wind Surge	—	267	231	52	8	1	7	22	65	11	9	5	225	322	359	681	134	268	24	8	302	91	-3	-0	—	—	+6	0.3
2024	21	A+ MLE	Cedar Rapids Kernels	—	197	168	44	9	0	5	20	40	7	14	1	262	364	405	769	143	305	20	10	336	114	+3	+2	—	—	+4	1.0
2025	22	MLB MLE	Minnesota Twins	—	207	182	55	14	0	4	19	29	5	14	3	302	383	445	829	143	340	14	9	366	134	+8	+2	-1	+1	+4	1.5
2025	22	AAA MLE	St. Paul Saints	—	118	101	26	2	1	1	11	21	2	11	2	257	342	327	669	69	280	18	9	293	84	-2	+1	—	—	+3	0.2
2023	20	A MLE	2 teams	—	128	110	28	9	1	2	11	33	4	9	0	255	344	409	753	155	333	26	9	332	111	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	20	A RAW	2 teams	—	128	104	31	10	1	3	17	23	4	9	0	298	416	500	916	202	346	18	13	398	111	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	21	AA MLE	2 teams	—	464	398	96	16	1	12	43	105	18	23	6	241	342	377	719	136	294	23	9	316	100	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	21	AA RAW	2 teams	—	464	379	115	21	1	15	62	80	18	23	6	303	425	483	908	179	346	17	13	403	100	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	22	MLB MLE	2 teams	—	325	283	81	16	1	5	30	50	7	25	5	286	369	403	772	117	326	15	9	340	116	+6	+3	-1	+1	+7	1.7
2025	22	MLB RAW	2 teams	—	325	277	80	16	1	5	36	46	7	25	5	289	384	408	792	119	325	14	11	355	116	+6	+3	-1	+1	+7	1.7
2023	20	A MLE	2 teams	—	128	112	28	9	1	2	11	33	4	9	0	250	344	402	746	152	320	26	9	332	111	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	21	AA MLE	2 teams	—	464	400	96	16	1	12	43	105	18	23	6	240	342	375	717	135	284	23	9	316	100	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	22	MLB MLE	2 teams	—	325	285	81	16	1	5	30	50	7	25	5	284	369	400	769	116	318	15	9	340	116	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2023	20	A MLE	2 teams	—	128	112	28	9	1	2	11	33	4	9	0	250	344	402	746	152	320	26	9	332	111	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	21	AA MLE	2 teams	—	464	400	96	16	1	12	43	105	18	23	6	240	342	375	717	135	284	23	9	316	100	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	22	MLB MLE	2 teams	—	325	285	81	16	1	5	30	50	7	25	5	284	369	400	769	116	318	15	9	340	116	—	—	—	—	—	—
YTD	23	MLB MLE	MIN	—	561	479	130	25	1	9	53	82	21	17	7	271	369	384	753	113	306	15	9	335	113	+9	+1	+0	+2	+12	2.4
▸ 2026 season
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
SO FAR	23	MLB RAW	MIN	—	561	479	130	25	1	9	53	82	21	17	7	271	369	384	753	113	306	15	9	340	113	+9	+1	+0	+2	+12	2.4
YTD	23	MLB RAW	MIN	—	561	479	130	25	1	9	53	82	21	17	7	271	369	384	753	113	306	15	9	340	116	+11	+1	+0	+2	+12	2.6
ROS	23	MLB MLE	MIN	100%	10	9	2	0	0	0	1	2	0	0	0	222	300	222	522		306	20	10	335	113	+0	+0	-0	+0	+0	0.0
ROS	23	MLB CTX	MIN	100%	10	9	2	0	0	0	1	2	0	0	0	222	300	222	522		306	20	10	311	113	+0	+0	-0	+0	+0	0.0
FULL	23	MLB A+C	MIN	—	571	488	132	25	1	9	54	84	21	17	7	270	368	381	749	111	306	15	9	340	113	+9	+1	+0	+2	+12	2.4
TOT	23	MLB MLE	MIN	—	571	488	132	25	1	9	54	84	21	17	7	270	368	381	749	111	306	15	9	335	113	+9	+1	+0	+2	+12	2.4
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
2027	24	MLB MLE	MIN	100%	598	517	139	26	1	11	56	92	20	22	7	269	363	387	749	118	306	15	9	340	116	+12	+2	-2	+2	+13	2.7
2028	25	MLB MLE	MIN	100%	586	506	137	26	1	11	55	90	20	22	7	271	365	391	756	121	307	15	9	343	118	+13	+2	-2	+2	+13	2.8
2029	26	MLB MLE	MIN	100%	575	496	134	25	1	11	55	88	19	21	6	270	365	391	756	121	306	15	10	344	119	+13	+2	-2	+2	+12	2.8
2030	27	MLB MLE	MIN	100%	563	485	130	24	1	11	54	86	19	21	6	268	364	390	753	122	306	15	10	344	119	+13	+2	-2	+2	+12	2.7
2031	28	MLB MLE	MIN	100%	552	474	128	24	1	11	54	86	19	19	6	270	367	395	762	124	306	16	10	343	118	+12	+1	-3	+2	+12	2.5
2032	29	MLB MLE	MIN	100%	541	465	124	23	1	10	53	85	18	18	5	267	364	385	749	118	305	16	10	341	117	+11	+2	-3	+2	+12	2.3
2033	30	MLB MLE	MIN	100%	530	455	121	22	1	10	52	85	18	16	5	266	364	385	748	119	304	16	10	338	115	+9	+1	-4	+2	+11	2.1
2034	31	MLB MLE	MIN	100%	519	446	116	21	1	9	51	84	17	13	4	260	358	372	730	112	301	16	10	334	112	+7	+1	-5	+2	+11	1.7
2035	32	MLB MLE	MIN	100%	509	437	112	20	1	8	50	85	17	11	3	256	355	362	717	105	297	17	10	327	107	+4	+1	-5	+2	+11	1.3
2036	33	MLB MLE	MIN	100%	439	379	94	16	0	7	43	75	14	7	2	248	346	346	692	98	292	17	10	319	102	+1	+1	-6	+2	+10	0.7
2037	34	MLB MLE	MIN	96%	371	320	77	13	0	5	36	66	12	4	1	241	340	328	668	87	285	18	10	309	95	-2	+0	-6	+1	+8	0.1
2027	24	MLB CTX	MIN	100%	598	517	139	26	1	11	56	92	20	22	7	269	363	387	749	118	307	15	9	316	116	+12	+2	-2	+2	+13	2.7
2028	25	MLB CTX	MIN	100%	586	506	137	26	1	11	55	90	20	22	7	271	365	391	756	121	307	15	9	319	118	+13	+2	-2	+2	+13	2.8
2029	26	MLB CTX	MIN	100%	575	496	134	25	1	11	55	88	19	21	6	270	365	391	756	121	307	15	10	320	119	+13	+2	-2	+2	+12	2.8
2030	27	MLB CTX	MIN	100%	563	485	130	24	1	11	54	86	19	21	6	268	364	390	753	122	306	15	10	320	119	+13	+2	-2	+2	+12	2.7
2031	28	MLB CTX	MIN	100%	552	474	128	24	1	11	54	86	19	19	6	270	367	395	762	124	306	16	10	319	118	+12	+1	-3	+2	+12	2.5
2032	29	MLB CTX	MIN	100%	541	465	124	23	1	10	53	85	18	18	5	267	364	385	749	118	305	16	10	317	117	+11	+2	-3	+2	+12	2.3
2033	30	MLB CTX	MIN	100%	530	455	121	22	1	10	52	85	18	16	5	266	364	385	748	119	304	16	10	314	115	+9	+1	-4	+2	+11	2.1
2034	31	MLB CTX	MIN	100%	519	446	116	21	1	9	51	84	17	13	4	260	358	372	730	112	301	16	10	309	112	+7	+1	-5	+2	+11	1.7
2035	32	MLB CTX	MIN	100%	509	437	112	20	1	8	50	85	17	11	3	256	355	362	717	105	297	17	10	303	107	+4	+1	-5	+2	+11	1.3
2036	33	MLB CTX	MIN	100%	439	379	94	16	0	7	43	75	14	7	2	248	346	346	692	98	292	17	10	295	102	+1	+1	-6	+2	+10	0.7
2037	34	MLB CTX	MIN	96%	354	306	73	12	0	5	34	63	11	4	1	239	336	327	663	88	285	18	10	285	95	-2	+0	-6	+1	+8	0.1
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	5983	5157	1365	253	9	108	577	950	197	188	55	265	361	380	741	115	304	16	10	314	113	+103	+16	-40	+22	+130	23.4
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	560	148	27	1	12	63	103	21	20	6	264	360	380	740	116	304	16	10	314	113	+11	+2	-4	+2	+14	2.5
Career	—	MLE		—	6710	5780	1519	281	12	123	644	1112	222	231	63	263	359	379	738	117	304	17	10	335	113	+103	+16	-40	+22	+130	23.4
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	560	147	27	1	12	62	108	22	22	6	263	359	379	737	116	304	17	10	335	113	+11	+2	-4	+2	+14	2.5

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	162s	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Brian Robertslast yr '14 career totals — 14 seasons, 6,253 PA	9.4	6,253	97	285	276	347	409	+18	+42	36.5	35.5
/162	664	10	30	+1.9	+4.5	3.9	pk7: 34
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 14 projected seasons	10.7	7,127	128	233	267	357	383	+25	-3	35.7	29.0
/162	664	12	22	+2.4	-0.3	3.3	pk7: 22
#2Chase Headleylast yr '18 career totals — 11 seasons, 5,740 PA	8.6	5,740	130	93	263	343	400	+6	+26	27.7	26.7
/162	664	15	11	+0.8	+3.1	3.2	pk7: 26
#3Orlando Hudsonlast yr '12 career totals — 11 seasons, 5,413 PA	8.2	5,413	93	85	273	341	412	+17	+34	28.6	26.6
/162	664	11	10	+2.1	+4.2	3.5	pk7: 25
#4Denard Spanlast yr '18 career totals — 11 seasons, 5,956 PA	9.0	5,956	71	185	281	347	398	+8	-3	26.3	24.1
/162	664	8	21	+0.9	-0.4	2.9	pk7: 22
#5Jason Kipnislast yr '20 career totals — 10 seasons, 4,984 PA	7.5	4,984	126	136	260	333	416	+18	-11	22.6	21.9
/162	664	17	18	+2.4	-1.4	3.0	pk7: 21
#6Austin Jacksonlast yr '18 career totals — 9 seasons, 4,653 PA	7.0	4,653	65	114	273	333	396	+17	+13	19.5	19.5
/162	664	9	16	+2.4	+1.9	2.8	pk7: 19

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Luke Keaschall (OGILVIE)	23	55	40	60	60	264/356/375	111	306	10	22	16%	9%	113	+2.2	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
●Starlin Castro 2013 · MLB	23	59→63	45→50	53→50	47	289/329/423	133	323	10	18	14%	5%	112	+2.2	268/309/394	126	309	12	10	17%	5%	98	+1.2	283/325/431	148	327	17	3	18%	5%	110	+2.0
●Vaughn Grissom 2023 · MLB	22	56→62	47→45	54→55	47	275/338/409	134	321	14	19	19%	6%	113	+2.3	257/321/374	117	310	10	15	19%	7%	98	+1.2	248/314/358	110	302	9	13	20%	7%	89	+0.4
✕Jose Tabata 2012 · MLB	23	57→61	41→45	53→55	52	273/334/377	104	314	7	25	15%	8%	103	+1.5	260/320/364	104	301	6	13	15%	7%	95	+0.9	260/317/354	94	300	5	8	14%	6%	90	+0.4
✕Desmond Jennings 2010 · AAA	23	55→59	44→50	63→60	51	268/330/399	131	306	10	34	16%	8%	107	+1.8	247/316/376	129	297	10	33	19%	8%	97	+1.1	243/323/397	154	290	15	28	21%	9%	102	+1.5
✕Jose Aguilar 2013 · AAA	23	57→61	40→45	52→55	47	270/325/369	99	317	6	16	17%	6%	98	+1.2	277/331/381	104	319	7	16	15%	6%	103	+1.5	284/341/387	103	323	7	16	13%	6%	104	+1.0
●Jean Segura 2012 · AAA	22	53→62	43→50	59→60	44	257/292/374	117	299	9	24	18%	4%	86	+0.3	265/304/364	99	307	7	31	16%	5%	88	+0.5	304/351/443	139	337	13	24	13%	6%	121	+3.0
●Matt Duffy 2015 · MLB	24	57→64	41→45	53→50	47	273/323/376	103	328	7	17	19%	6%	99	+1.2	274/320/392	118	319	10	13	17%	6%	101	+1.4	283/337/387	104	329	9	12	16%	7%	104	+1.4
●Kolten Wong 2014 · MLB	23	52→61	42→50	56→55	46	253/298/362	109	292	9	19	16%	6%	86	+0.3	256/310/386	130	290	13	19	16%	6%	97	+1.1	271/355/410	138	308	11	16	15%	9%	112	+1.7
●Elvis Andrus 2012 · MLB	23	56→61	37→50	55→60	55	263/331/335	72	298	4	30	13%	9%	92	+0.7	265/325/340	75	306	4	25	14%	8%	91	+0.7	277/330/414	137	310	11	19	14%	7%	105	+1.6
●Adam Eaton 2012 · AA	23	58→67	43→50	54→55	51	274/358/394	119	332	9	21	19%	8%	117	+2.6	282/351/390	108	337	6	23	17%	8%	113	+2.3	285/358/414	128	339	9	15	17%	8%	117	+2.8
●Otto Lopez 2022 · AAA	23	56→65	39→50	53→55	44	263/310/359	95	329	5	18	21%	5%	90	+0.6	257/306/352	95	318	5	19	20%	6%	86	+0.3	283/332/413	130	317	12	23	14%	6%	108	+1.8
✕Brett Lawrie 2013 · MLB	23	54→56	49→55	53→55	47	266/319/427	161	307	15	17	19%	6%	109	+2.0	257/310/410	153	293	17	10	18%	6%	103	+1.5	254/305/408	154	293	18	6	20%	6%	98	+0.9
★Vernon Wells 2002 · MLB	23	54→61	45→60	55→50	48	263/317/394	130	299	12	18	16%	6%	101	+1.4	284/327/479	195	297	23	8	13%	6%	125	+3.2	285/339/493	208	292	25	6	12%	7%	129	+3.9
✕Luis Rivas 2003 · MLB	23	53→55	42→50	54→55	48	256/307/372	116	292	8	21	16%	6%	92	+0.7	249/293/380	131	276	11	19	14%	5%	88	+0.5	246/287/372	126	270	10	19	13%	5%	83	+0.1
●Dansby Swanson 2017 · MLB	23	50→55	43→55	53→55	47	243/304/362	119	301	10	12	22%	7%	88	+0.5	238/308/365	127	297	12	9	22%	9%	91	+0.7	255/323/435	180	314	23	11	25%	8%	111	+2.3
✕Devon Travis 2015 · AA	24	55→62	46→50	53→50	48	271/319/404	133	307	12	14	16%	6%	104	+1.6	274/318/423	149	323	14	10	19%	6%	108	+1.9	284/325/444	160	335	15	8	19%	5%	114	+1.2
✕Dalton Pompey 2016 · MLB	23	54→58	41→45	59→55	47	256/313/365	109	320	8	26	22%	7%	93	+0.8	238/295/329	91	308	7	21	23%	7%	78	-0.3	231/291/315	83	305	7	20	25%	7%	71	-0.3
●Julio Lugo 2001 · MLB	25	55→62	47→45	54→60	50	272/335/419	147	324	14	24	20%	8%	113	+2.3	260/323/387	127	312	13	15	20%	8%	101	+1.4	279/345/398	119	317	8	28	14%	8%	110	+2.1
●Rocco Baldelli 2004 · MLB	22	57→61	44→55	55	44	277/318/406	128	328	11	21	19%	5%	104	+1.6	280/325/440	160	320	16	17	17%	5%	115	+2.4	278/324/454	176	314	19	16	18%	5%	115	+1.5
✕Cameron Maybin 2010 · MLB	23	55→60	45→50	55	47	257/324/392	135	349	10	16	28%	8%	103	+1.5	256/318/384	128	328	11	23	24%	8%	99	+1.2	259/333/376	117	311	11	30	19%	9%	100	+1.1

Career Stats + Projections

Career Comps

Career Path Comps