Luke Keaschall — OGILVIE

Luke Keaschall2B Minnesota Twins

Age 23 R/R 6'0" / 190 lbs MLB BB +3% Svc 0.953 · Ctrl thru 2031 peak 2.0 · 2029

wRC+†vL 1575vR 144

AVG/OBP/SLG.256 / .337 / .375

PA350

HR7

SB18

K%18

BB%9

xwOBA.276

Barrel%3.7%

MLB%100%

Scouting · now → future

HIT

55→55

PWR

40→40

SPD

60→60

EYE

52↗60

trajectory · 10 yrs

2.0peak

2029

Contract

ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status Pre-Arb

MLB Debut 2025

Service 0.953 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2031

First FA Year 2027

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.4	$2M	+$0.8M
2027	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+1.7	$14M	+$13M
2028	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+1.9	$16M	+$15M
2029	Arb-1	$4M	+2.0	$17M	+$13M
2030	Arb-2	$8M	+2.0	$18M	+$10M
2031	Arb-3	$10M	+1.8	$17M	+$6M
Totals		$25M		$84M	+$59M

Career Projections (MLE)

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2023	20	A	2 teams	128	109	28	9	1	2	12	33	4	9	0	.257	.352	.413	.765	.156	.338	26	9	.332	112	+2	+2	+0	+0	+4	0.8
2024	21	AA	2 teams	464	398	96	16	1	14	43	107	18	23	6	.241	.342	.392	.734	.151	.291	23	9	.320	103	+1	+2	+0	+2	+13	1.9
2025	22	MLB	2 teams	325	283	81	15	1	5	30	50	7	25	5	.286	.369	.399	.768	.113	.326	15	9	.337	116	+6	+3	-1	+1	+9	1.9
▸ 2026 Season (actual · ROS · total)
2026	23	MLB	Minnesota Twins	106	99	20	3	0	1	6	15	0	5	0	.202	.248	.263	.510	.061	.226	14	6	.230	34	-8	+1	+0	+0	+3	-0.3
ROS	23	MLB	MIN	244	218	53	9	1	4	20	42	4	13	2	.243	.318	.349	.667	.106	.285	17	8	.306	93	-2	+2	-1	+1	+7	0.7
TOT	23	MLB	MIN	350	317	73	12	1	5	26	57	4	18	2	.230	.297	.322	.619	.091	.265	16	7	.283	75	-10	+3	-0	+1	+10	0.4
▸ 2027+ Projections — Projections at projected PA · Park-neutral MLB equivalent · Marcel + aging curve
2027	24	MLB	MIN	477	426	105	18	1	9	40	66	8	25	4	.246	.323	.357	.680	.110	.274	14	8	.311	96	-2	+3	-1	+2	+14	1.6
2028	25	MLB	MIN	489	436	110	19	2	10	42	67	8	26	4	.252	.329	.374	.703	.122	.275	14	9	.315	99	-0	+4	-1	+2	+14	1.8
2029	26	MLB	MIN	494	439	111	19	2	10	43	67	9	26	4	.253	.332	.374	.706	.121	.275	14	9	.317	101	+0	+4	-1	+2	+14	1.9
2030	27	MLB	MIN	489	434	109	19	1	10	44	67	8	26	4	.251	.331	.369	.700	.118	.275	14	9	.317	101	+0	+4	-1	+2	+14	1.9
2031	28	MLB	MIN	482	428	106	18	1	10	43	67	8	25	4	.248	.328	.364	.692	.117	.275	14	9	.316	100	-0	+3	-2	+2	+14	1.7
2032	29	MLB	MIN	470	417	103	18	1	9	42	67	8	23	3	.247	.328	.360	.687	.113	.274	14	9	.314	98	-1	+3	-3	+2	+13	1.5
2033	30	MLB	MIN	458	406	100	17	1	9	41	67	8	22	3	.246	.327	.360	.687	.113	.273	15	9	.311	96	-2	+3	-3	+2	+13	1.3
2034	31	MLB	MIN	443	393	95	16	1	8	40	66	7	19	2	.242	.323	.349	.671	.107	.272	15	9	.307	93	-3	+3	-4	+2	+13	1.0
2035	32	MLB	MIN	424	376	90	15	1	7	38	66	7	16	1	.239	.321	.340	.661	.101	.271	16	9	.302	90	-5	+3	-4	+2	+12	0.7
2036	33	MLB	MIN	394	350	82	14	1	6	35	64	6	14	1	.234	.315	.331	.646	.097	.269	16	9	.297	85	-7	+2	-5	+1	+11	0.3
2037	34	MLB	MIN	349	309	72	12	1	5	31	59	6	11	0	.233	.315	.327	.642	.094	.268	17	9	.290	80	-8	+2	-6	+1	+10	-0.0
2038	35	MLB	MIN	296	263	59	9	1	4	26	53	5	9	0	.224	.306	.312	.618	.087	.266	18	9	.283	75	-8	+2	-6	+1	+8	-0.4
2039	36	MLB	MIN	238	211	46	7	0	3	21	45	4	7	0	.218	.301	.294	.595	.076	.264	19	9	.275	68	-9	+1	-7	+1	+7	-0.7
▸ Career Totals (MLE all levels + projections)
Career	—			6664	5896	1446	250	18	125	591	1053	125	319	43	.245	.327	.357	.684	.112	.278	16	9	.310	95	-37	+47	-46	+24	+189	18.0
/ 162G	—			650	575	141	24	2	12	58	103	12	31	4	.245	.327	.357	.684	.111	.278	16	9	.310	95	-4	+5	-4	+2	+18	1.8

Historical Stats — Raw (Per Stint)

Actual MLB + MiLB stats as they happened, one row per stint at each level. Use this to see what really got recorded; the table above shows MLB-equivalent translations + projections.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2023	20	A+	Cedar Rapids Kernels	34	32	10	2	0	2	2	3	0	1	0	.312	.353	.562	.915	.250	.296	9	6	.399	163	+2	+0	—	—	+1	0.4
2023	20	A	Fort Myers Mighty Mussels	94	72	21	8	1	1	15	20	4	8	0	.292	.440	.472	.912	.181	.370	21	16	.397	162	+7	+2	—	—	+3	1.1
2024	21	AA	Wichita Wind Surge	267	221	62	9	1	8	32	51	11	9	5	.281	.398	.439	.837	.158	.327	19	12	.375	145	+14	-0	—	—	+8	2.1
2024	21	A+	Cedar Rapids Kernels	197	158	53	12	0	7	30	29	7	14	1	.335	.462	.544	1.006	.209	.371	15	15	.441	195	+21	+2	—	—	+6	3.0
2025	22	MLB	Minnesota Twins	207	182	55	14	0	4	19	29	5	14	3	.302	.383	.445	.829	.143	.340	14	9	.371	142	+10	+2	-1	+1	+6	1.8
2025	22	AAA	St. Paul Saints	118	95	25	2	1	1	17	17	2	11	2	.263	.386	.337	.723	.074	.296	14	14	.327	108	+1	+1	—	—	+3	0.6
▸ Career Totals (raw MLB only — historical actual)
MLB Career	—			207	182	55	14	0	4	19	29	5	14	3	.302	.383	.445	.829	.143	.340	14	9	.371	142	+10	+2	-1	+1	+6	1.8

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Luke Keaschall (OGILVIE)	23	55	40	60	60	.245/.319/.353	.108	.274	6	19	14%	8%	93	+0.7	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
●Desmond Jennings 2010 · AAA	23	54→59	45→50	62→60	50	.264/.324/.399	.135	.301	11	33	16%	7%	105	+2.1	.250/.317/.380	.130	.300	11	33	19%	8%	98	+1.6	.252/.331/.406	.154	.301	15	28	21%	9%	106	+2.2
●Elvis Andrus 2012 · MLB	23	56→59	37→50	56→60	55	.265/.332/.334	.070	.301	4	30	13%	9%	92	+1.2	.266/.327/.343	.077	.307	4	25	14%	8%	92	+1.2	.269/.322/.402	.134	.299	12	19	14%	7%	97	+1.5
●Maikel Garcia 2023 · MLB	23	51→56	42→45	57→60	48	.243/.300/.351	.107	.306	8	26	23%	8%	82	+0.5	.247/.304/.352	.105	.303	8	26	20%	8%	85	+0.7	.251/.312/.364	.113	.295	9	27	17%	8%	88	+1.0
✕Luis Rivas 2002 · MLB	22	54→55	41→50	56→55	49	.259/.312/.362	.103	.297	8	25	16%	6%	90	+1.0	.254/.302/.380	.126	.287	10	20	15%	6%	91	+1.1	.251/.295/.390	.139	.278	11	20	14%	5%	88	+0.6
✕Garrett Hampson 2019 · MLB	24	54→56	41→45	60	48	.257/.310/.358	.102	.313	7	30	20%	7%	88	+0.9	.233/.287/.346	.113	.302	10	25	25%	7%	76	+0.0	.230/.295/.332	.102	.301	8	22	25%	8%	73	-0.1
✕Tyler Pastornicky 2012 · AAA	22	53→61	40→45	56→60	48	.253/.298/.346	.093	.288	7	27	15%	6%	79	+0.3	.251/.294/.344	.093	.295	7	15	17%	5%	78	+0.2	.249/.293/.328	.078	.297	5	12	17%	5%	69	-0.2
●Erick Aybar 2007 · MLB	23	53→63	42→50	57→60	44	.253/.289/.367	.113	.278	8	34	13%	4%	82	+0.5	.258/.297/.357	.099	.290	6	20	13%	4%	82	+0.5	.273/.310/.401	.128	.296	9	21	11%	4%	98	+1.5
★Jean Segura 2014 · MLB	24	56→64	42→50	60	44	.271/.309/.378	.107	.310	9	34	16%	5%	93	+1.3	.265/.304/.371	.106	.301	9	27	15%	4%	89	+0.9	.304/.351/.439	.135	.338	12	24	13%	6%	123	+3.5
✕Vidal Bruján 2021 · AA	23	52→59	41→45	59→65	49	.247/.305/.351	.104	.294	8	34	18%	7%	85	+0.7	.222/.280/.339	.117	.266	11	37	20%	7%	72	-0.2	.220/.290/.331	.110	.269	10	28	21%	7%	69	-0.3
✕Jose Tabata 2012 · MLB	23	57→61	41→45	52→55	51	.274/.332/.377	.103	.315	7	24	15%	7%	102	+1.9	.260/.320/.362	.102	.302	6	14	15%	7%	94	+1.3	.258/.315/.351	.092	.298	4	8	14%	6%	87	+0.6
✕Dalton Pompey 2016 · MLB	23	53→58	42→45	59→55	47	.254/.313/.364	.110	.320	8	26	22%	7%	91	+1.1	.241/.297/.335	.094	.311	7	22	23%	7%	77	+0.1	.231/.291/.320	.089	.304	8	20	25%	7%	68	-0.2
●Cristian Guzman 2001 · MLB	23	50→60	44→50	61→55	50	.242/.295/.379	.137	.273	8	21	15%	7%	88	+0.9	.269/.306/.406	.137	.304	9	20	14%	5%	98	+1.6	.301/.333/.418	.117	.332	7	5	11%	4%	110	+1.8
●Julio Borbon 2010 · MLB	24	58→61	39→40	58→60	47	.277/.320/.363	.086	.312	6	34	14%	5%	93	+1.3	.267/.307/.347	.080	.306	5	27	14%	5%	84	+0.6	.278/.311/.346	.068	.324	5	28	15%	4%	82	+0.4
✕Ryan Brett 2015 · AA	23	53→55	42→45	57→60	43	.257/.297/.368	.111	.309	9	26	20%	5%	85	+0.7	.231/.267/.337	.106	.285	9	14	22%	4%	65	-0.7	.199/.229/.282	.083	.256	7	7	25%	2%	32	-1.4
✕Greg Allen 2017 · AA	24	52→56	40→45	55→65	50	.247/.326/.341	.094	.290	6	26	16%	7%	92	+1.2	.244/.312/.337	.093	.304	6	27	21%	6%	85	+0.7	.251/.325/.358	.107	.320	7	35	22%	6%	92	+0.8
●Ender Inciarte 2015 · MLB	24	54→62	38→45	58→60	47	.256/.296/.339	.083	.291	5	28	14%	5%	77	+0.1	.279/.324/.377	.098	.312	7	21	12%	6%	98	+1.6	.292/.341/.396	.103	.325	7	19	12%	6%	106	+2.3
●Peter Bourjos 2011 · MLB	24	49→55	45→55	63→60	41	.241/.282/.374	.133	.293	11	29	22%	4%	81	+0.4	.246/.300/.394	.148	.305	13	21	23%	6%	94	+1.3	.248/.309/.396	.147	.314	12	18	24%	6%	98	+0.9
✕Alcides Escobar 2011 · MLB	24	55→63	39→45	58→55	46	.261/.301/.355	.094	.301	6	23	16%	5%	83	+0.6	.250/.288/.340	.090	.286	5	24	14%	5%	74	-0.1	.245/.290/.359	.114	.297	9	6	20%	5%	78	+0.1
✕Victor Robles 2020 · MLB	23	50	46→50	54→60	44	.245/.313/.384	.139	.300	12	25	22%	6%	98	+1.6	.229/.303/.348	.119	.293	11	20	24%	6%	85	+0.7	.280/.351/.382	.102	.349	6	51	20%	6%	110	+0.8
✕José Peraza 2018 · MLB	24	55→64	38→45	56→65	44	.260/.293/.338	.077	.293	6	28	14%	4%	76	+0.0	.263/.304/.365	.102	.292	9	19	13%	4%	88	+0.9	.262/.305/.370	.108	.288	9	16	13%	4%	85	+0.5

Contract

Career Projections (MLE) Show advanced cols

Historical Stats — Raw (Per Stint)

Career Path Comps

Career Projections (MLE)