Xavier Edwards

2B Miami Marlins

Age 27 S/R 5'9" / 175 lbs MLB HR -10%H -3% Svc 3.198 · Ctrl thru 2029

Overview

MLB40-MANArb-1FA 2030

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	PA	AVG/OBP/SLG	HR	SB	wRC+	WAR	MLE AVG/OBP/SLG
2024	24	AAAMIA	119	.330/.376/.450	1	5	99	—	.306/.342/.414
2024	24	MLBMIA	303	.328/.403/.423	1	31	139	2.4
2025	25	MLBMIA	619	.283/.344/.353	3	27	103	2.4
2026	26	MLBMIA	595	.280/.363/.371	6	21	112	2.6
2027PROJ	27	MLBMIA	534	.270/.342/.347	4	24	103	2.1
2028PROJ	28	MLBMIA	550	.268/.340/.342	4	22	101	2.0
2029PROJ	29	MLBMIA	533	.264/.336/.335	3	19	98	1.6

Last 3 seasons WAR 7.4 · Next 3 projected WAR 5.7Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2029Service3.198First FA2030

2027Arb-1$3M2028Arb-2$8M2029Arb-3$11M

Skills · percentileStatcast 2024-2026

Speed71

xwOBA45

Avg EV18

Bat Spd12

Barrel%10

CompsReggie Willits (age 27) · Joey Gathright (age 27) · Myles Straw (age 27)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONstats below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+†vL 103103vR 103

AVG/OBP/SLG.270 / .342 / .347

PA534

HR4

SB24

K%15

BB%10

BABIP313

ISO78

MLB%100%

Value2027 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control+$19M ctrl surplus

Tools · Splits · ContractCON 55 / POW 30

Toolsscout grade · Statcast %ile · 2024-2026

CONTACT55

xAVG

590.258

POWER30

Barrel%

101.9

Avg EV

1886.7

Bat Spd

1267.3

EYE55

scouting grade only

SPEED55

Sprint

7128.3

Platoon Splits2024-2026 · 1039 PA

vs LHP

vs RHP

Edge

320

719

—

wRC+

127

▶▶R

wOBA

291

356

▶▶R

ISO

049

099

▶▶R

BABIP

325

373

▶R

16.6%

14.2%

▶R

BB%

8.8%

9.0%

▶R

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status Arb-1

MLB Debut 2023

Service 3.198 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2029

First FA Year 2030

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	Arb-1	$3M	+1.6	$13M	+$10M
2028	Arb-2	$8M	+2.0	$15M	+$7M
2029	Arb-3	$11M	+1.6	$11M	+$2M
Totals		$23M		$39M	+$19M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2018	18	ROK	AZL Padres 1	—	88	73	28	4	1	0	13	10	0	12	1	384	477	466	942	82	438	11	15	416	112	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	19	A+	Lake Elsinore Storm	—	217	196	59	5	4	0	14	19	1	14	2	301	351	367	718	66	331	9	6	316	72	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	19	A	Fort Wayne TinCaps	—	344	307	103	13	4	1	30	35	1	20	9	336	396	414	810	78	371	10	9	360	83	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	21	AA	Montgomery Biscuits	—	337	291	88	13	3	0	36	42	1	19	11	302	381	368	749	65	348	12	11	334	91	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	22	AAA	Durham Bulls	—	400	349	86	19	1	5	43	75	0	7	4	246	329	350	679	103	300	19	11	304	61	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	23	MLB	Miami Marlins	—	84	78	23	3	0	0	3	14	1	5	0	295	329	333	663	38	359	17	4	295	91	-1	+1	-1	+2	+2	0.3
2023	23	AAA	Jacksonville Jumbo Shrimp	—	433	370	130	14	2	7	52	30	2	32	4	351	434	457	891	105	364	7	12	393	128	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	24	MLB	Miami Marlins	—	303	265	87	12	5	1	33	52	0	31	4	328	403	423	825	94	398	17	11	366	139	+14	+5	-6	+5	+7	2.4
2024	24	AAA	Jacksonville Jumbo Shrimp	—	119	109	36	8	1	1	8	11	0	5	1	330	376	450	826	119	361	9	7	362	99	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	25	MLB	Miami Marlins	—	619	561	159	20	5	3	49	88	3	27	7	283	344	353	697	70	330	14	8	315	103	+2	+3	+3	+2	+13	2.4
2026	26	MLB	Miami Marlins	—	595	518	145	17	6	6	68	83	0	21	5	280	363	371	734	91	320	14	11	330	112	+9	+2	-1	+2	+13	2.6
▸ Career Totals (raw MLB only — historical actual)
MLB Career	—			—	1601	1422	414	52	16	10	153	237	4	84	16	291	362	371	733	80	340	15	10	329	109	+17	+10	-4	+11	+35	7.0
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2018	18	ROK MLE	AZL Padres 1	—	88	78	25	3	1	0	8	14	0	12	1	321	384	385	768	64	371	16	9	334	112	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	19	A+ MLE	Lake Elsinore Storm	—	217	200	53	4	3	0	10	26	1	14	2	265	303	315	618	50	299	12	5	275	72	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	19	A MLE	Fort Wayne TinCaps	—	344	317	87	10	3	1	20	49	1	20	9	274	320	334	654	60	314	14	6	291	83	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	21	AA MLE	Montgomery Biscuits	—	337	301	87	12	3	0	26	53	1	19	11	289	348	349	696	60	330	16	8	302	91	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	22	AAA MLE	Durham Bulls	—	400	363	83	16	1	4	29	90	0	7	4	229	286	311	597	83	284	22	7	259	61	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	23	MLB MLE	Miami Marlins	—	84	78	23	3	0	0	3	14	1	5	0	295	329	333	663	38	359	17	4	302	91	-1	+1	-1	+2	+2	0.3
2023	23	AAA MLE	Jacksonville Jumbo Shrimp	—	433	386	128	13	2	5	36	35	2	32	4	332	392	415	806	83	345	8	8	357	128	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	24	MLB MLE	Miami Marlins	—	303	266	89	13	5	1	32	52	0	31	4	335	406	432	838	98	398	17	11	374	139	+14	+5	-6	+5	+7	2.4
2024	24	AAA MLE	Jacksonville Jumbo Shrimp	—	119	111	34	7	1	1	6	13	0	5	1	306	342	414	756	108	329	11	5	315	99	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	25	MLB MLE	Miami Marlins	—	619	563	163	22	5	3	47	88	3	27	7	290	347	362	710	73	330	14	8	321	103	+2	+3	+3	+2	+13	2.4
2026	26	MLB MLE	Miami Marlins	—	595	522	149	19	6	6	64	83	0	21	5	285	363	379	743	94	320	14	11	334	112	+9	+2	-1	+2	+13	2.6
2018	18	ROK MLE	AZL Padres 1	—	88	78	25	3	1	0	8	14	0	12	1	321	384	385	768	64	385	16	9	334	112	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	18	ROK RAW	AZL Padres 1	—	88	73	28	4	1	0	13	10	0	12	1	384	477	466	942	82	438	11	15	416	112	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	19	A MLE	2 teams	—	561	517	143	15	7	1	30	75	2	34	11	277	319	338	657	62	318	13	5	285	79	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	19	A RAW	2 teams	—	561	503	162	18	8	1	44	54	2	34	11	322	379	396	774	74	355	10	8	343	79	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	21	AA MLE	Montgomery Biscuits	—	337	301	87	12	3	0	26	53	1	19	11	289	348	349	696	60	345	16	8	302	91	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	21	AA RAW	Montgomery Biscuits	—	337	291	88	13	3	0	36	42	1	19	11	302	381	368	749	65	348	12	11	334	91	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	22	AAA MLE	Durham Bulls	—	400	363	83	16	1	4	29	90	0	7	4	229	286	311	597	83	293	22	7	259	61	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	22	AAA RAW	Durham Bulls	—	400	349	86	19	1	5	43	75	0	7	4	246	329	350	679	103	300	19	11	304	61	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	23	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	517	464	153	17	2	5	39	49	3	37	4	330	385	407	793	78	357	9	8	348	122	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	23	AAA RAW	2 teams	—	517	448	153	17	2	7	55	44	3	37	4	342	417	435	852	94	363	9	11	377	122	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	24	MLB MLE	2 teams	—	422	377	123	20	6	2	38	65	0	36	5	326	388	427	815	101	385	15	9	358	128	+14	+5	-6	+5	+9	2.7
2024	24	MLB RAW	2 teams	—	422	374	123	20	6	2	41	63	0	36	5	329	395	430	826	102	387	15	10	365	128	+14	+5	-6	+5	+9	2.7
2025	25	MLB MLE	Miami Marlins	—	619	563	163	22	5	3	47	88	3	27	7	290	347	362	710	73	337	14	8	321	103	+2	+3	+3	+2	+13	2.4
2025	25	MLB RAW	Miami Marlins	—	619	561	159	20	5	3	49	88	3	27	7	283	344	353	697	70	330	14	8	315	103	+2	+3	+3	+2	+13	2.4
2026	26	MLB MLE	Miami Marlins	—	595	522	149	19	6	6	64	83	0	21	5	285	363	379	743	94	326	14	11	334	112	+9	+2	-1	+2	+13	2.6
2026	26	MLB RAW	Miami Marlins	—	595	518	145	17	6	6	68	83	0	21	5	280	363	371	734	91	320	14	11	330	112	+9	+2	-1	+2	+13	2.6
2018	18	ROK MLE	AZL Padres 1	—	88	80	25	3	1	0	8	14	0	12	1	312	384	375	759	62	371	16	9	334	112	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	19	A MLE	2 teams	—	561	524	143	15	7	1	30	75	2	34	11	273	319	334	653	61	308	13	5	285	79	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	21	AA MLE	Montgomery Biscuits	—	337	307	87	12	3	0	26	53	1	19	11	283	348	342	690	59	330	16	8	302	91	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	22	AAA MLE	Durham Bulls	—	400	368	83	16	1	4	29	90	0	7	4	226	286	307	593	82	284	22	7	259	61	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	23	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	517	470	153	17	2	5	39	49	3	37	4	326	385	402	788	77	347	9	8	348	122	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	24	MLB MLE	2 teams	—	422	381	123	20	6	2	38	65	0	36	5	323	388	423	811	100	379	15	9	358	128	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	25	MLB MLE	Miami Marlins	—	619	564	163	22	5	3	47	88	3	27	7	289	347	362	709	73	330	14	8	321	103	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	26	MLB MLE	Miami Marlins	—	595	526	149	19	6	6	64	83	0	21	5	283	363	376	740	93	320	14	11	334	112	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons)
2024	24	MLB MLE	2 teams	—	422	381	123	20	6	2	38	65	0	36	5	323	388	423	811	100	379	15	9	358	128	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	25	MLB MLE	Miami Marlins	—	619	564	163	22	5	3	47	88	3	27	7	289	347	362	709	73	330	14	8	321	103	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	26	MLB MLE	Miami Marlins	—	595	526	149	19	6	6	64	83	0	21	5	283	363	376	740	93	320	14	11	334	112	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2027 season
▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability)
2027	27	MLB MLE	MIA	100%	561	501	139	17	6	4	54	82	1	25	6	277	349	360	709	83	321	15	10	321	103	+2	+3	+3	+2	+12	1.6
▸ 2027 — real world (MLB)
2027	27	MLB CTX	MIA	100%	534	477	129	15	5	4	51	78	1	24	5	270	342	347	689	77	313	15	10	313	103	+2	+3	+3	+2	+12	2.1
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
2028	28	MLB MLE	MIA	100%	550	491	136	17	6	4	53	82	1	22	5	276	347	356	702	80	321	15	10	318	101	+1	+2	+2	+2	+12	2.0
2029	29	MLB MLE	MIA	100%	533	476	129	16	5	3	51	80	1	19	4	272	343	348	691	76	318	15	10	313	98	-1	+2	+1	+2	+12	1.6
2030	30	MLB MLE	MIA	100%	520	465	125	15	5	3	49	80	1	15	4	269	339	340	679	71	316	15	9	309	95	-3	+1	+1	+2	+11	1.2
2031	31	MLB MLE	MIA	100%	505	453	120	14	5	2	47	80	0	10	3	264	334	330	664	65	314	16	9	302	91	-6	+1	-0	+2	+11	0.8
2032	32	MLB MLE	MIA	100%	455	410	105	12	4	1	42	74	0	5	2	258	328	317	644	58	310	16	9	294	85	-8	+0	-1	+2	+10	0.3
2033	33	MLB MLE	MIA	100%	419	378	95	10	4	0	38	71	0	2	1	251	320	302	622	50	305	17	9	285	79	-10	+0	-2	+1	+9	-0.2
2028	28	MLB CTX	MIA	100%	550	491	133	16	5	4	53	82	1	22	5	268	340	342	683	74	312	15	10	310	101	+1	+2	+2	+2	+12	2.0
2029	29	MLB CTX	MIA	100%	533	476	127	15	5	3	51	80	1	19	4	264	336	335	671	71	310	15	10	306	98	-1	+2	+1	+2	+12	1.6
2030	30	MLB CTX	MIA	100%	520	465	123	14	5	3	49	80	1	15	4	262	333	328	661	66	308	15	9	301	95	-3	+1	+1	+2	+11	1.2
2031	31	MLB CTX	MIA	100%	505	453	116	13	4	2	47	80	0	10	3	257	328	318	646	61	305	16	9	295	91	-6	+1	-0	+2	+11	0.8
2032	32	MLB CTX	MIA	100%	455	410	103	11	4	1	42	74	0	5	2	252	322	306	627	54	302	16	9	288	85	-8	+0	-1	+2	+10	0.3
2033	33	MLB CTX	MIA	100%	419	374	91	9	3	0	38	71	4	2	1	248	323	295	618	47	301	17	9	285	79	-10	+0	-2	+1	+9	-0.2
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	4583	4091	1107	130	42	23	433	704	11	157	35	271	342	340	682	69	319	15	9	309	97	-10	+17	-4	+21	+99	12.7
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	580	156	18	6	3	61	100	2	22	5	269	341	336	677	67	318	15	9	309	97	-1	+2	-1	+3	+14	1.8
Career	—	MLE		—	7055	6335	1768	225	65	38	612	1062	13	290	72	279	344	353	697	74	327	15	9	312	97	-8	+20	-1	+23	+111	14.8
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	584	164	21	6	4	56	98	1	27	7	281	344	358	702	77	329	15	9	312	97	-1	+3	-0	+3	+14	1.9

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2024 AAAJacksonville Jumbo Shrimp · 119 PAwOBA .352 → .315 (−37)K% 9.2% → 11.1%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	9.24%	÷0.999	×1.200	—	—	11.10%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	6.72%	÷1.005	×0.690	—	×1.033	4.77%
HBP% /PA	0.00%	—	×0.940	—	×1.033	0.00%
Singles /BIP	26.53%	÷1.016	×0.930	×0.978	×1.033	24.54%
Doubles /BIP	8.16%	÷0.970	×0.830	×0.978	×1.033	7.06%
Triples /BIP	1.02%	÷0.985	×0.970	×0.978	×1.033	1.02%
Home runs /BIP	1.02%	÷0.925	×0.700	—	×1.033	0.80%

Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 85, 1B 103, 2B 94, 3B 97, K 100, BB 101 — applied at half strength. Age: age 25 vs a level average of 27.2 → +3.3% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.978.

Result: wOBA .352 → .315; ISO .119 → .105; BABIP .361 → .329. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 AAAJacksonville Jumbo Shrimp · 433 PAwOBA .387 → .357 (−30)K% 6.9% → 8.0%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	6.93%	÷1.040	×1.200	—	—	7.99%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	11.78%	÷1.008	×0.690	—	×1.048	8.45%
HBP% /PA	0.46%	—	×0.940	—	×1.048	0.46%
Singles /BIP	31.47%	÷1.016	×0.930	×0.998	×1.048	30.12%
Doubles /BIP	4.12%	÷0.955	×0.830	×0.998	×1.048	3.74%
Triples /BIP	0.59%	÷1.039	×0.970	×0.998	×1.048	0.57%
Home runs /BIP	2.06%	÷1.031	×0.700	—	×1.048	1.47%

Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 106, 1B 103, 2B 91, 3B 108, K 108, BB 102 — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 27.2 → +4.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.998.

Result: wOBA .387 → .357; ISO .105 → .090; BABIP .364 → .345. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 AAADurham Bulls · 400 PAwOBA .296 → .259 (−37)K% 18.8% → 22.5%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	18.75%	÷0.999	×1.200	—	—	22.53%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	10.50%	÷1.059	×0.690	—	×1.050	7.18%
HBP% /PA	0.00%	—	×0.940	—	×1.050	0.00%
Singles /BIP	22.26%	÷0.988	×0.930	×1.008	×1.050	22.19%
Doubles /BIP	6.93%	÷1.091	×0.830	×1.008	×1.050	5.58%
Triples /BIP	0.36%	÷1.150	×0.970	×1.008	×1.050	0.33%
Home runs /BIP	1.82%	÷1.034	×0.700	—	×1.050	1.30%

Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 107, 1B 98, 2B 118, 3B 130, K 100, BB 112 — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 27.2 → +5.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (4.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.008.

Result: wOBA .296 → .259; ISO .103 → .082; BABIP .300 → .284. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2021 AAMontgomery Biscuits · 337 PAwOBA .330 → .302 (−27)K% 12.5% → 15.7%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	12.46%	÷0.970	×1.220	—	—	15.68%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	10.68%	÷1.015	×0.690	—	×1.042	7.57%
HBP% /PA	0.30%	—	×0.850	—	×1.042	0.26%
Singles /BIP	28.92%	÷1.019	×0.940	×0.999	×1.042	27.78%
Doubles /BIP	5.22%	÷1.046	×0.870	×0.999	×1.042	4.52%
Triples /BIP	1.20%	÷0.950	×0.920	×0.999	×1.042	1.21%
Home runs /BIP	0.00%	÷0.938	×0.780	—	×1.042	0.00%

Factors used: level-wide AA factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 88, 1B 104, 2B 109, 3B 90, K 94, BB 103 — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 24.8 → +4.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.999.

Result: wOBA .330 → .302; ISO .065 → .062; BABIP .348 → .330. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2019 AFort Wayne TinCaps · 344 PAwOBA .353 → .291 (−62)K% 10.2% → 14.3%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	10.17%	÷0.969	×1.360	—	—	14.28%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	8.14%	÷0.996	×0.690	—	×1.030	5.81%
HBP% /PA	0.29%	—	×0.780	—	×1.030	0.23%
Singles /BIP	31.25%	÷1.050	×0.920	×0.950	×1.030	26.79%
Doubles /BIP	4.78%	÷1.020	×0.830	×0.950	×1.030	3.81%
Triples /BIP	1.47%	÷1.150	×0.910	×0.950	×1.030	1.14%
Home runs /BIP	0.37%	÷1.151	×0.800	—	×1.030	0.26%

Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 130, 1B 110, 2B 104, 3B 130, K 94, BB 99 — applied at half strength. Age: age 20 vs a level average of 22.0 → +3.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.0 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.

Result: wOBA .353 → .291; ISO .078 → .061; BABIP .371 → .314. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2019 A+Lake Elsinore Storm · 217 PAwOBA .308 → .275 (−33)K% 8.8% → 11.9%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	8.76%	÷0.987	×1.340	—	—	11.89%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	5.99%	÷0.977	×0.710	—	×1.042	4.54%
HBP% /PA	0.46%	—	×0.790	—	×1.042	0.38%
Singles /BIP	28.25%	÷0.990	×0.910	×0.950	×1.042	25.69%
Doubles /BIP	2.82%	÷0.940	×0.820	×0.950	×1.042	2.44%
Triples /BIP	2.26%	÷0.900	×0.760	×0.950	×1.042	1.89%
Home runs /BIP	0.00%	÷0.900	×0.920	—	×1.042	0.00%

Factors used: league row CAL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 80, 1B 98, 2B 88, 3B 80, K 97, BB 95 — applied at half strength. Age: age 20 vs a level average of 22.8 → +4.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.

Result: wOBA .308 → .275; ISO .066 → .057; BABIP .331 → .299. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2018 ROKAZL Padres 1 · 88 PAwOBA .411 → .334 (−77)K% 11.4% → 16.4%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	11.36%	÷1.000	×1.440	—	—	16.36%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	14.77%	÷1.000	×0.620	—	×1.008	9.23%
HBP% /PA	0.00%	—	×0.720	—	×1.008	0.00%
Singles /BIP	36.51%	÷1.000	×0.820	×1.050	×1.008	31.67%
Doubles /BIP	6.35%	÷1.000	×0.720	×1.050	×1.008	4.84%
Triples /BIP	1.59%	÷1.000	×0.720	×1.050	×1.008	1.21%
Home runs /BIP	0.00%	÷1.000	×0.780	—	×1.008	0.00%

Factors used: level-wide ROK factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 19 vs a level average of 19.5 → +0.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.5 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.050.

Result: wOBA .411 → .334; ISO .082 → .065; BABIP .438 → .371. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	162s	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1David Ecksteinlast yr '10 career totals — 10 seasons, 5,705 PA	8.6	5,705	35	123	280	345	355	+31	+19	21.9	20.3
/162	664	4	14	+3.6	+2.2	2.5	pk7: 19
#2Luis Castillo'96-'10 * career totals — 15 seasons, 7,471 PA	11.3	7,471	28	370	279*	353*	341*	+27	-34	20.8	19.8
/162	664	2	33	+2.4	-3.0	1.8	pk7: 19
#3Felipe Lopezlast yr '11 career totals — 11 seasons, 4,864 PA	7.3	4,864	90	124	264	333	391	+31	-19	17.7	18.1
/162	664	12	17	+4.2	-2.6	2.4	pk7: 19
#4Bip Roberts'86-'98 * career totals — 11 seasons, 4,631 PA	7.0	4,631	30	264	286*	351*	391*	-10	+11	17.8	18.1
/162	664	4	38	-1.4	+1.6	2.6	pk7: 18
#5César Hernándezlast yr '22 career totals — 10 seasons, 4,797 PA	7.2	4,797	71	91	267	341	375	+17	+1	17.8	18.1
/162	664	10	13	+2.4	+0.2	2.5	pk7: 18
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 11 projected seasons	7.7	5,117	27	181	276	342	349	+40	-8	19.1	17.8
/162	664	4	23	+5.1	-1.0	2.5	pk7: 16
#6Dave Cash'69-'80 * career totals — 12 seasons, 6,057 PA	9.1	6,057	21	120	278*	330*	388*	+22	+12	17.8	17.7
/162	664	2	13	+2.4	+1.3	2.0	pk7: 18

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Xavier Edwards (OGILVIE)	27	55	30	55	55	275/346/357	82	321	4	24	15%	10%	103	+1.4	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Reggie Willits 2008 · MLB	27	60→63	36→30	55→60	60	277/364/347	69	333	2	30	16%	12%	107	+1.9	242/325/304	62	299	3	20	18%	11%	84	+0.1	227/308/271	44	283	1	17	18%	10%	69	-0.4
✕Joey Gathright 2008 · MLB	27	59→66	35→30	57→60	54	274/349/338	64	324	2	34	15%	9%	100	+1.3	256/313/304	48	301	2	30	14%	7%	78	-0.3	251/292/287	36	309	0	27	18%	5%	62	-0.6
✕Myles Straw 2022 · MLB	27	56→60	38→40	56→60	54	261/334/341	80	325	4	27	20%	10%	95	+1.0	232/299/301	69	287	3	23	18%	9%	73	-0.6	227/283/314	88	278	5	24	19%	7%	69	-0.6
✕Emilio Bonifácio 2012 · MLB	27	59→64	39→40	60→65	51	275/336/368	92	344	4	31	20%	8%	101	+1.4	256/313/344	88	326	5	37	21%	8%	87	+0.4	245/298/322	77	310	4	43	21%	7%	77	-0.2
✕Kelby Tomlinson 2017 · MLB	27	59→64	36→40	55→60	48	275/328/346	71	332	3	25	18%	7%	93	+0.8	245/300/302	57	316	2	18	21%	7%	73	-0.6	229/282/270	41	305	1	15	24%	6%	57	-1.1
✕Alejandro Machado 2009 · AAA	27	56→62	41→40	55	48	267/314/372	105	307	7	23	16%	6%	94	+0.9	234/292/324	90	277	7	14	17%	7%	76	-0.4	214/282/273	60	253	4	10	16%	7%	60	-0.5
✕Yonny Hernández 2024 · MLB	26	49→59	37→30	55→60	56	225/324/301	75	291	4	29	22%	11%	83	+0.1	248/317/318	70	304	4	18	18%	8%	84	+0.1	266/328/324	58	317	2	17	16%	7%	85	+0.1
✕Shawn O'Malley 2015 · MLB	27	53→58	38→40	60	47	247/305/340	93	303	4	21	19%	7%	84	+0.1	245/305/344	99	306	7	20	21%	7%	85	+0.2	241/303/334	93	303	7	21	21%	7%	80	-0.1
●Ryan Theriot 2007 · MLB	27	58→65	38→40	58→55	51	275/327/370	95	308	4	25	12%	7%	98	+1.2	278/340/357	79	310	4	23	11%	8%	100	+1.3	280/347/351	71	312	3	22	10%	9%	102	+1.6
●Luis Castillo 2004 · MLB	28	62→71	37→40	53→65	57	296/359/373	77	327	5	27	11%	9%	111	+2.1	290/363/363	73	318	4	18	9%	10%	110	+2.1	288/364/353	66	315	3	18	9%	11%	109	+2.0
✕Nicky Lopez 2022 · MLB	27	57→63	38→40	54→55	53	269/332/354	86	309	4	16	14%	8%	97	+1.1	242/308/310	68	283	3	15	14%	8%	78	-0.3	232/308/289	57	277	1	10	15%	9%	74	-0.3
✕Cliff Pennington 2011 · MLB	27	51→54	40→45	59→55	53	243/313/347	104	287	6	27	17%	9%	88	+0.5	240/299/344	104	288	8	17	18%	8%	82	+0.0	236/294/328	92	284	7	14	19%	7%	78	-0.2
●David Eckstein 2002 · MLB	27	57→64	38→40	56→55	52	271/339/352	82	293	5	23	10%	7%	100	+1.3	270/339/352	82	288	5	18	8%	7%	100	+1.3	291/353/368	76	306	4	10	6%	6%	109	+1.9
✕Tony Gwynn Jr. 2010 · MLB	27	54→57	36→40	55→60	52	255/316/323	69	299	3	22	16%	8%	84	+0.1	240/303/327	87	288	4	27	17%	8%	80	-0.2	246/299/321	75	304	2	27	18%	7%	76	-0.2
✕Erick Aybar 2011 · MLB	27	56→63	40→45	53→60	48	268/314/363	95	297	6	18	12%	6%	92	+0.7	273/313/395	122	300	8	21	12%	5%	99	+1.3	276/312/401	125	300	8	21	11%	4%	101	+1.3
✕Jake Elmore 2013 · MLB	26	58→64	37→40	54→55	55	268/339/353	84	316	3	22	15%	9%	99	+1.3	248/318/329	81	295	5	18	16%	9%	86	+0.3	235/306/298	64	278	4	15	16%	8%	74	-0.4
✕Luis Durango 2011 · MLB	25	60→65	33→30	55→60	53	280/341/318	39	335	1	32	16%	9%	91	+0.7	256/309/303	47	322	1	35	19%	7%	76	-0.4	264/304/315	51	330	1	39	19%	5%	73	-0.5
✕Greg Allen 2019 · MLB	26	54→57	39→45	58→65	45	255/321/346	92	320	6	31	21%	6%	92	+0.7	243/314/357	114	306	9	28	22%	6%	93	+0.8	235/337/343	108	314	8	52	25%	7%	97	+0.4
●Oswaldo Morejon 2006 · AAA	27	58→68	40	52→50	52	276/334/385	109	301	5	21	10%	7%	105	+1.7	265/321/361	96	292	6	10	11%	6%	95	+0.9	284/328/376	92	304	6	7	8%	4%	98	+0.8
✕Gene Kingsale 2003 · MLB	26	54	41→40	54→55	50	259/324/363	103	313	7	19	19%	8%	97	+1.1	234/296/332	98	274	7	12	17%	7%	79	-0.2	218/274/288	71	256	3	7	15%	6%	60	-0.6

Xavier Edwards

Career Stats + Projections

How the minor-league lines were translated

Career Comps

Career Path Comps