Roman Anthony
LF Boston Red Sox| Year | Age | Lvl / Team | PA | AVG/OBP/SLG | HR | SB | wRC+ | WAR | MLE AVG/OBP/SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 20 | AAA/AABOS | 540 | .291/.399/.498 | 18 | 21 | 114 | — | .266/.343/.428 |
| 2025 | 21 | AAABOS | 265 | .288/.426/.491 | 10 | 3 | 118 | — | .260/.361/.423 |
| 2025 | 21 | MLBBOS | 303 | .292/.397/.463 | 8 | 4 | 140 | 1.9 | |
| 2026 | 22 | MLBBOS | 242 | .245/.339/.396 | 5 | 2 | 105 | 0.5 | |
| 2027PROJ | 23 | MLBBOS | 251 | .264/.357/.437 | 7 | 4 | 120 | 1.1 | |
| 2028PROJ92% MLB | 24 | MLBBOS | 471 | .271/.363/.463 | 16 | 7 | 129 | 2.5 | |
| 2029PROJ92% MLB | 25 | MLBBOS | 459 | .275/.367/.484 | 18 | 6 | 135 | 2.8 |
Tools · Recent Form · Splits · Contract
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built
All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | MLB% | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | SO | HBP | SB | CS | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | ISO | BABIP | K% | BB% | wOBA | wRC+ | BAT | RUN | FLD | POS | REP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2022 | 18 | A | Salem Red Sox | — | 43 | 37 | 7 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 189 | 286 | 243 | 529 | 54 | 206 | 9 | 12 | 246 | 32 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 18 | ROK | FCL Red Sox | — | 40 | 35 | 15 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 429 | 487 | 486 | 973 | 57 | 469 | 10 | 10 | 428 | 110 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 19 | AA | Portland Sea Dogs | — | 44 | 35 | 12 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 8 | 6 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 343 | 477 | 543 | 1.020 | 200 | 393 | 14 | 18 | 452 | 147 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 19 | A+ | Greenville Drive | — | 245 | 204 | 60 | 14 | 3 | 12 | 40 | 75 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 294 | 412 | 569 | 981 | 275 | 410 | 31 | 16 | 426 | 106 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 19 | A | Salem Red Sox | — | 202 | 158 | 36 | 9 | 1 | 1 | 38 | 38 | 2 | 11 | 6 | 228 | 384 | 316 | 700 | 89 | 285 | 19 | 19 | 326 | 72 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 20 | AAA | Worcester Red Sox | — | 164 | 131 | 45 | 12 | 1 | 3 | 31 | 31 | 0 | 5 | 2 | 344 | 469 | 519 | 988 | 176 | 424 | 19 | 19 | 434 | 149 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 20 | AA | Portland Sea Dogs | — | 376 | 323 | 87 | 20 | 3 | 15 | 48 | 96 | 3 | 16 | 5 | 269 | 369 | 489 | 858 | 220 | 336 | 26 | 13 | 377 | 99 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 21 | MLB | Boston Red Sox | — | 303 | 257 | 75 | 18 | 1 | 8 | 40 | 84 | 5 | 4 | 1 | 292 | 397 | 463 | 860 | 171 | 404 | 28 | 13 | 384 | 140 | +15 | +0 | +3 | -6 | +7 | 1.9 |
| 2025 | 21 | AAA | Worcester Red Sox | — | 265 | 212 | 61 | 9 | 2 | 10 | 51 | 56 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 288 | 426 | 491 | 916 | 203 | 345 | 21 | 19 | 405 | 118 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 22 | MLB | Boston Red Sox | — | 242 | 212 | 52 | 11 | 3 | 5 | 29 | 66 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 245 | 339 | 396 | 735 | 151 | 333 | 27 | 12 | 331 | 105 | +1 | +0 | +0 | -3 | +5 | 0.5 |
| 2026 | 22 | AAA | Worcester Red Sox | — | 16 | 14 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 286 | 375 | 571 | 946 | 286 | 333 | 25 | 12 | 411 | 105 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Career Totals (raw MLB only — historical actual) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| MLB Career | — | — | 545 | 469 | 127 | 29 | 4 | 13 | 69 | 150 | 6 | 6 | 1 | 271 | 371 | 433 | 804 | 162 | 371 | 28 | 13 | 361 | 130 | +20 | +1 | +4 | -9 | +12 | 2.8 | ||
| ▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2022 | 18 | A MLE | Salem Red Sox | — | 43 | 38 | 7 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 184 | 262 | 237 | 499 | 53 | 192 | 14 | 9 | 216 | 32 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 18 | ROK MLE | FCL Red Sox | — | 40 | 37 | 12 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 324 | 359 | 351 | 710 | 27 | 375 | 15 | 5 | 331 | 110 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 19 | AA MLE | Portland Sea Dogs | — | 44 | 37 | 12 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 7 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 324 | 432 | 486 | 918 | 162 | 372 | 16 | 14 | 386 | 147 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 19 | A+ MLE | Greenville Drive | — | 245 | 220 | 50 | 11 | 2 | 11 | 24 | 100 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 227 | 306 | 445 | 752 | 218 | 362 | 41 | 10 | 325 | 106 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 19 | A MLE | Salem Red Sox | — | 202 | 170 | 35 | 9 | 1 | 1 | 26 | 53 | 2 | 11 | 6 | 206 | 318 | 288 | 606 | 82 | 269 | 26 | 13 | 274 | 72 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 20 | AAA MLE | Worcester Red Sox | — | 164 | 141 | 45 | 12 | 1 | 2 | 21 | 37 | 0 | 5 | 2 | 319 | 407 | 461 | 868 | 142 | 413 | 23 | 13 | 388 | 149 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 20 | AA MLE | Portland Sea Dogs | — | 376 | 338 | 82 | 16 | 3 | 12 | 33 | 114 | 3 | 16 | 5 | 243 | 316 | 414 | 730 | 172 | 318 | 30 | 9 | 315 | 99 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 21 | MLB MLE | Boston Red Sox | — | 303 | 257 | 72 | 16 | 1 | 8 | 40 | 84 | 5 | 4 | 1 | 280 | 387 | 444 | 831 | 163 | 404 | 28 | 13 | 376 | 140 | +15 | +0 | +3 | -6 | +7 | 1.9 |
| 2025 | 21 | AAA MLE | Worcester Red Sox | — | 265 | 227 | 59 | 9 | 2 | 8 | 36 | 66 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 260 | 361 | 423 | 784 | 163 | 326 | 25 | 14 | 342 | 118 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 22 | MLB MLE | Boston Red Sox | — | 242 | 213 | 51 | 10 | 3 | 5 | 28 | 66 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 239 | 331 | 385 | 716 | 146 | 333 | 27 | 12 | 323 | 105 | +1 | +0 | +0 | -3 | +5 | 0.5 |
| 2026 | 22 | AAA MLE | Worcester Red Sox | — | 16 | 15 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 267 | 312 | 533 | 846 | 267 | 305 | 31 | 6 | 323 | 105 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 18 | A MLE | 2 teams | — | 83 | 75 | 19 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 12 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 253 | 309 | 293 | 602 | 40 | 292 | 14 | 7 | 271 | 70 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 18 | A RAW | 2 teams | — | 83 | 72 | 22 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 9 | 8 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 306 | 383 | 361 | 744 | 56 | 333 | 10 | 11 | 334 | 70 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 19 | A+ MLE | 3 teams | — | 491 | 427 | 97 | 23 | 3 | 13 | 56 | 160 | 4 | 16 | 7 | 227 | 322 | 386 | 709 | 159 | 326 | 33 | 11 | 309 | 96 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 19 | A+ RAW | 3 teams | — | 491 | 397 | 108 | 27 | 4 | 14 | 86 | 119 | 4 | 16 | 7 | 272 | 407 | 466 | 873 | 194 | 351 | 24 | 18 | 387 | 96 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 20 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 540 | 479 | 127 | 28 | 4 | 14 | 54 | 151 | 3 | 21 | 7 | 265 | 343 | 428 | 771 | 163 | 355 | 28 | 10 | 337 | 114 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 20 | AA RAW | 2 teams | — | 540 | 454 | 132 | 32 | 4 | 18 | 79 | 127 | 3 | 21 | 7 | 291 | 399 | 498 | 897 | 207 | 364 | 24 | 15 | 394 | 114 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 21 | MLB MLE | 2 teams | — | 568 | 484 | 132 | 25 | 3 | 16 | 76 | 150 | 5 | 7 | 4 | 273 | 377 | 436 | 813 | 163 | 361 | 26 | 13 | 360 | 130 | +20 | -0 | +3 | -6 | +12 | 3.0 |
| 2025 | 21 | MLB RAW | 2 teams | — | 568 | 469 | 136 | 27 | 3 | 18 | 91 | 140 | 5 | 7 | 4 | 290 | 411 | 475 | 886 | 186 | 376 | 25 | 16 | 394 | 130 | +20 | -0 | +3 | -6 | +12 | 3.0 |
| 2026 | 22 | MLB MLE | 2 teams | — | 258 | 228 | 54 | 11 | 3 | 6 | 29 | 71 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 237 | 326 | 390 | 716 | 154 | 318 | 28 | 11 | 323 | 105 | +2 | +0 | +0 | -3 | +6 | 0.5 |
| 2026 | 22 | MLB RAW | 2 teams | — | 258 | 226 | 56 | 12 | 3 | 6 | 31 | 70 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 248 | 341 | 407 | 748 | 159 | 333 | 27 | 12 | 336 | 105 | +2 | +0 | +0 | -3 | +6 | 0.5 |
| 2022 | 18 | A MLE | 2 teams | — | 83 | 77 | 19 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 12 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 247 | 309 | 286 | 594 | 39 | 280 | 14 | 7 | 271 | 70 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 19 | A+ MLE | 3 teams | — | 491 | 428 | 97 | 23 | 3 | 13 | 56 | 160 | 4 | 16 | 7 | 227 | 322 | 386 | 708 | 159 | 325 | 33 | 11 | 309 | 96 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 20 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 540 | 478 | 127 | 28 | 4 | 14 | 54 | 151 | 3 | 21 | 7 | 266 | 343 | 429 | 772 | 163 | 347 | 28 | 10 | 337 | 114 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 21 | MLB MLE | 2 teams | — | 568 | 482 | 132 | 25 | 3 | 16 | 76 | 150 | 5 | 7 | 4 | 274 | 377 | 438 | 815 | 164 | 367 | 26 | 13 | 360 | 130 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 22 | MLB MLE | 2 teams | — | 258 | 226 | 54 | 11 | 3 | 6 | 29 | 71 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 239 | 326 | 394 | 719 | 155 | 332 | 28 | 11 | 323 | 105 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2024 | 20 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 540 | 478 | 127 | 28 | 4 | 14 | 54 | 151 | 3 | 21 | 7 | 266 | 343 | 429 | 772 | 163 | 347 | 28 | 10 | 337 | 114 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 21 | MLB MLE | 2 teams | — | 568 | 482 | 132 | 25 | 3 | 16 | 76 | 150 | 5 | 7 | 4 | 274 | 377 | 438 | 815 | 164 | 367 | 26 | 13 | 360 | 130 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 22 | MLB MLE | 2 teams | — | 258 | 226 | 54 | 11 | 3 | 6 | 29 | 71 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 239 | 326 | 394 | 719 | 155 | 332 | 28 | 11 | 323 | 105 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ 2027 season | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 23 | MLB MLE | BOS | 100% | 482 | 419 | 108 | 21 | 4 | 14 | 56 | 123 | 4 | 7 | 2 | 257 | 351 | 428 | 779 | 171 | 327 | 26 | 12 | 346 | 120 | +12 | +1 | +3 | -5 | +10 | 1.3 |
| ▸ 2027 — real world (MLB) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 23 | MLB CTX | BOS | 100% | 251 | 218 | 57 | 12 | 2 | 7 | 29 | 64 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 264 | 357 | 437 | 794 | 173 | 339 | 25 | 12 | 352 | 120 | +6 | +0 | +1 | -3 | +5 | 1.1 |
| ▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2028 | 24 | MLB MLE | BOS | 92% | 512 | 443 | 117 | 22 | 4 | 18 | 60 | 130 | 4 | 7 | 2 | 264 | 357 | 454 | 811 | 191 | 329 | 25 | 12 | 358 | 129 | +17 | +1 | +3 | -5 | +11 | 2.7 |
| 2029 | 25 | MLB MLE | BOS | 92% | 499 | 433 | 116 | 21 | 4 | 20 | 59 | 126 | 4 | 7 | 2 | 269 | 362 | 476 | 837 | 207 | 331 | 25 | 12 | 368 | 135 | +21 | +1 | +3 | -5 | +11 | 3.0 |
| 2030 | 26 | MLB MLE | BOS | 92% | 486 | 422 | 114 | 21 | 4 | 20 | 57 | 123 | 4 | 6 | 2 | 268 | 361 | 475 | 837 | 207 | 330 | 25 | 12 | 368 | 135 | +20 | +0 | +3 | -5 | +11 | 2.9 |
| 2031 | 27 | MLB MLE | BOS | 92% | 472 | 409 | 108 | 20 | 3 | 19 | 56 | 120 | 4 | 6 | 2 | 267 | 360 | 472 | 833 | 205 | 329 | 25 | 12 | 366 | 134 | +19 | +0 | +3 | -5 | +10 | 2.8 |
| 2032 | 28 | MLB MLE | BOS | 92% | 460 | 399 | 105 | 19 | 3 | 18 | 54 | 118 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 265 | 358 | 467 | 825 | 202 | 328 | 26 | 12 | 363 | 132 | +17 | +0 | +2 | -5 | +10 | 2.5 |
| 2033 | 29 | MLB MLE | BOS | 92% | 447 | 389 | 101 | 19 | 3 | 17 | 52 | 116 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 260 | 354 | 458 | 812 | 198 | 324 | 26 | 12 | 358 | 128 | +15 | +0 | +1 | -5 | +10 | 2.2 |
| 2034 | 30 | MLB MLE | BOS | 92% | 435 | 378 | 97 | 18 | 3 | 16 | 51 | 114 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 255 | 348 | 447 | 795 | 192 | 319 | 26 | 12 | 352 | 124 | +12 | -0 | +0 | -5 | +9 | 1.8 |
| 2035 | 31 | MLB MLE | BOS | 92% | 422 | 367 | 91 | 17 | 2 | 15 | 49 | 112 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 250 | 343 | 435 | 778 | 185 | 314 | 27 | 12 | 345 | 119 | +10 | +0 | -0 | -5 | +9 | 1.4 |
| 2036 | 32 | MLB MLE | BOS | 92% | 409 | 356 | 86 | 15 | 2 | 14 | 47 | 111 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 243 | 335 | 419 | 754 | 176 | 308 | 27 | 11 | 335 | 113 | +6 | +0 | -1 | -4 | +9 | 1.0 |
| 2037 | 33 | MLB MLE | BOS | 92% | 326 | 284 | 67 | 11 | 2 | 11 | 37 | 90 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 234 | 326 | 400 | 726 | 166 | 300 | 28 | 11 | 324 | 105 | +2 | +0 | -2 | -3 | +7 | 0.4 |
| 2038 | 34 | MLB MLE | BOS | 88% | 263 | 231 | 51 | 8 | 1 | 8 | 29 | 75 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 224 | 315 | 377 | 692 | 154 | 289 | 29 | 11 | 310 | 96 | -1 | +0 | -3 | -3 | +6 | -0.2 |
| 2028 | 24 | MLB CTX | BOS | 92% | 471 | 409 | 110 | 23 | 3 | 16 | 55 | 119 | 4 | 7 | 2 | 271 | 363 | 463 | 826 | 192 | 341 | 25 | 12 | 364 | 129 | +16 | +1 | +3 | -5 | +10 | 2.5 |
| 2029 | 25 | MLB CTX | BOS | 92% | 459 | 398 | 109 | 22 | 3 | 18 | 54 | 116 | 4 | 6 | 2 | 275 | 367 | 484 | 851 | 208 | 342 | 25 | 12 | 374 | 135 | +19 | +0 | +3 | -5 | +10 | 2.8 |
| 2030 | 26 | MLB CTX | BOS | 92% | 447 | 387 | 107 | 22 | 3 | 18 | 53 | 113 | 4 | 6 | 2 | 275 | 367 | 483 | 850 | 208 | 341 | 25 | 12 | 373 | 135 | +19 | +0 | +3 | -5 | +10 | 2.7 |
| 2031 | 27 | MLB CTX | BOS | 92% | 434 | 376 | 103 | 21 | 3 | 17 | 51 | 110 | 4 | 5 | 1 | 274 | 366 | 480 | 846 | 207 | 340 | 25 | 12 | 372 | 134 | +18 | +1 | +2 | -5 | +9 | 2.6 |
| 2032 | 28 | MLB CTX | BOS | 92% | 423 | 367 | 99 | 20 | 3 | 16 | 50 | 108 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 271 | 364 | 475 | 838 | 203 | 339 | 26 | 12 | 369 | 132 | +16 | +0 | +2 | -5 | +9 | 2.3 |
| 2033 | 29 | MLB CTX | BOS | 92% | 411 | 357 | 95 | 19 | 2 | 16 | 48 | 106 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 267 | 359 | 466 | 825 | 199 | 335 | 26 | 12 | 364 | 128 | +14 | +0 | +1 | -4 | +9 | 2.0 |
| 2034 | 30 | MLB CTX | BOS | 92% | 400 | 347 | 91 | 18 | 2 | 15 | 47 | 105 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 262 | 354 | 455 | 809 | 193 | 330 | 26 | 12 | 357 | 124 | +11 | -0 | +0 | -4 | +9 | 1.6 |
| 2035 | 31 | MLB CTX | BOS | 92% | 388 | 337 | 86 | 17 | 2 | 14 | 45 | 103 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 256 | 348 | 442 | 791 | 186 | 325 | 27 | 12 | 350 | 119 | +9 | +0 | -0 | -4 | +8 | 1.3 |
| 2036 | 32 | MLB CTX | BOS | 92% | 376 | 328 | 82 | 16 | 2 | 13 | 43 | 102 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 249 | 341 | 426 | 767 | 177 | 318 | 27 | 11 | 341 | 113 | +6 | +0 | -1 | -4 | +8 | 0.9 |
| 2037 | 33 | MLB CTX | BOS | 92% | 300 | 261 | 63 | 12 | 1 | 10 | 34 | 83 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 240 | 331 | 407 | 738 | 167 | 310 | 28 | 11 | 329 | 105 | +2 | +0 | -2 | -3 | +6 | 0.3 |
| 2038 | 34 | MLB CTX | BOS | 88% | 230 | 201 | 46 | 8 | 1 | 7 | 26 | 65 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 229 | 319 | 383 | 703 | 154 | 299 | 28 | 11 | 315 | 96 | -1 | +0 | -3 | -2 | +5 | -0.2 |
| ▸ Career Totals | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | A+C | — | 4884 | 4237 | 1118 | 227 | 29 | 173 | 575 | 1280 | 39 | 40 | 11 | 264 | 357 | 454 | 811 | 190 | 337 | 26 | 12 | 359 | 121 | +148 | +4 | +10 | -55 | +106 | 21.7 | |
| / 162G | — | A+C | — | 650 | 564 | 149 | 30 | 4 | 23 | 77 | 170 | 5 | 5 | 1 | 264 | 358 | 454 | 811 | 190 | 337 | 26 | 12 | 359 | 121 | +20 | +0 | +1 | -7 | +14 | 2.9 | |
| Career | — | MLE | — | 6922 | 6022 | 1539 | 292 | 46 | 233 | 801 | 1843 | 50 | 88 | 30 | 256 | 348 | 435 | 783 | 180 | 328 | 27 | 12 | 347 | 121 | +165 | +4 | +12 | -62 | +120 | 24.4 | |
| / 162G | — | MLE | — | 650 | 565 | 144 | 27 | 4 | 22 | 75 | 173 | 5 | 8 | 3 | 255 | 347 | 434 | 780 | 179 | 327 | 27 | 12 | 347 | 121 | +19 | +0 | +1 | -7 | +14 | 2.9 | |
How the minor-league lines were translated
One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.
2026 AAAWorcester Red Sox · 16 PAwOBA .399 → .323 (−76)K% 25.0% → 30.0%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 25.00% | ÷1.000 | ×1.200 | — | — | 30.00% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 12.50% | ÷1.000 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.050 | 9.06% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×1.050 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 20.00% | ÷1.000 | ×0.930 | — | ×1.050 | 19.53% |
| Doubles /BIP | 10.00% | ÷1.000 | ×0.830 | — | ×1.050 | 8.71% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.000 | ×0.970 | — | ×1.050 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 10.00% | ÷1.000 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.050 | 7.35% |
Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 27.2 → +5.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (5.2 yr younger than average).
Result: wOBA .399 → .323; ISO .286 → .214; BABIP .333 → .305. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2025 AAAWorcester Red Sox · 265 PAwOBA .398 → .342 (−57)K% 21.1% → 25.0%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 21.13% | ÷1.013 | ×1.200 | — | — | 25.04% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 19.25% | ÷1.042 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.050 | 13.38% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×1.050 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 25.64% | ÷1.060 | ×0.930 | ×1.047 | ×1.050 | 24.71% |
| Doubles /BIP | 5.77% | ÷0.991 | ×0.830 | ×1.047 | ×1.050 | 5.31% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.28% | ÷1.000 | ×0.970 | ×1.047 | ×1.050 | 1.37% |
| Home runs /BIP | 6.41% | ÷0.984 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.050 | 4.79% |
Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 97, 1B 112, 2B 98, 3B 100, K 103, BB 108 — applied at half strength. Age: age 21 vs a level average of 27.2 → +5.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (6.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.047.
Result: wOBA .398 → .342; ISO .203 → .172; BABIP .345 → .326. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2024 AAPortland Sea Dogs · 376 PAwOBA .367 → .315 (−53)K% 25.5% → 30.2%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 25.53% | ÷1.033 | ×1.220 | — | — | 30.16% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 12.23% | ÷1.025 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.050 | 8.77% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.80% | — | ×0.850 | — | ×1.050 | 0.71% |
| Singles /BIP | 21.59% | ÷1.004 | ×0.970 | ×1.017 | ×1.050 | 22.28% |
| Doubles /BIP | 8.81% | ÷1.165 | ×0.860 | ×1.017 | ×1.050 | 6.95% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.32% | ÷1.150 | ×0.950 | ×1.017 | ×1.050 | 1.17% |
| Home runs /BIP | 6.61% | ÷1.018 | ×0.780 | — | ×1.050 | 5.32% |
Factors used: league row EL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 104, 1B 101, 2B 133, 3B 130, K 107, BB 105 — applied at half strength. Age: age 20 vs a level average of 24.8 → +5.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (4.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.017.
Result: wOBA .367 → .315; ISO .220 → .177; BABIP .336 → .318. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2024 AAAWorcester Red Sox · 164 PAwOBA .429 → .388 (−41)K% 18.9% → 22.6%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 18.90% | ÷1.004 | ×1.200 | — | — | 22.58% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 18.90% | ÷1.049 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.050 | 13.05% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×1.050 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 29.00% | ÷1.036 | ×0.930 | ×1.050 | ×1.050 | 28.70% |
| Doubles /BIP | 12.00% | ÷0.951 | ×0.830 | ×1.050 | ×1.050 | 11.54% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.00% | ÷1.143 | ×0.970 | ×1.050 | ×1.050 | 0.94% |
| Home runs /BIP | 3.00% | ÷0.996 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.050 | 2.21% |
Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 99, 1B 107, 2B 90, 3B 129, K 101, BB 110 — applied at half strength. Age: age 20 vs a level average of 27.2 → +5.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (7.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.050.
Result: wOBA .429 → .388; ISO .176 → .162; BABIP .424 → .413. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2023 A+Greenville Drive · 245 PAwOBA .415 → .325 (−90)K% 30.6% → 40.9%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 30.61% | ÷0.981 | ×1.310 | — | — | 40.90% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 16.33% | ÷1.028 | ×0.600 | — | ×1.050 | 10.00% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.41% | — | ×0.770 | — | ×1.050 | 0.33% |
| Singles /BIP | 24.03% | ÷1.053 | ×0.870 | ×1.050 | ×1.050 | 21.90% |
| Doubles /BIP | 10.85% | ÷1.033 | ×0.780 | ×1.050 | ×1.050 | 9.03% |
| Triples /BIP | 2.33% | ÷1.150 | ×0.850 | ×1.050 | ×1.050 | 1.90% |
| Home runs /BIP | 9.30% | ÷0.931 | ×0.880 | — | ×1.050 | 9.24% |
Factors used: league row South Atlantic League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 86, 1B 111, 2B 107, 3B 130, K 96, BB 106 — applied at half strength. Age: age 19 vs a level average of 22.8 → +5.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.050.
Result: wOBA .415 → .325; ISO .275 → .237; BABIP .410 → .362. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2023 ASalem Red Sox · 202 PAwOBA .325 → .274 (−52)K% 18.8% → 26.1%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 18.81% | ÷0.982 | ×1.360 | — | — | 26.06% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 18.81% | ÷1.052 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.045 | 12.90% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.99% | — | ×0.780 | — | ×1.045 | 0.81% |
| Singles /BIP | 20.83% | ÷1.023 | ×0.920 | ×1.013 | ×1.045 | 19.82% |
| Doubles /BIP | 7.50% | ÷0.942 | ×0.830 | ×1.013 | ×1.045 | 6.99% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.83% | ÷1.000 | ×0.910 | ×1.013 | ×1.045 | 0.80% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.83% | ÷0.999 | ×0.800 | — | ×1.045 | 0.70% |
Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 100, 1B 105, 2B 88, 3B 100, K 96, BB 110 — applied at half strength. Age: age 19 vs a level average of 22.0 → +4.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.0 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.013.
Result: wOBA .325 → .274; ISO .089 → .082; BABIP .285 → .269. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2023 AAPortland Sea Dogs · 44 PAwOBA .441 → .386 (−55)K% 13.6% → 16.6%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 13.64% | ÷1.000 | ×1.220 | — | — | 16.64% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 18.18% | ÷1.032 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.050 | 12.94% |
| HBP% /PA | 2.27% | — | ×0.850 | — | ×1.050 | 2.03% |
| Singles /BIP | 24.14% | ÷0.972 | ×0.970 | — | ×1.050 | 25.30% |
| Doubles /BIP | 13.79% | ÷1.144 | ×0.860 | — | ×1.050 | 10.88% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.900 | ×0.950 | — | ×1.050 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 3.45% | ÷1.048 | ×0.780 | — | ×1.050 | 2.69% |
Factors used: league row EL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 110, 1B 94, 2B 129, 3B 80, K 100, BB 106 — applied at half strength. Age: age 19 vs a level average of 24.8 → +5.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (5.8 yr younger than average).
Result: wOBA .441 → .386; ISO .200 → .163; BABIP .393 → .372. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2022 ASalem Red Sox · 43 PAwOBA .246 → .216 (−30)K% 9.3% → 13.6%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 9.30% | ÷0.930 | ×1.360 | — | — | 13.61% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 11.63% | ÷0.967 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.050 | 8.71% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.780 | — | ×1.050 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 15.15% | ÷1.026 | ×0.920 | — | ×1.050 | 14.26% |
| Doubles /BIP | 6.06% | ÷0.950 | ×0.830 | — | ×1.050 | 5.56% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.106 | ×0.910 | — | ×1.050 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.873 | ×0.800 | — | ×1.050 | 0.00% |
Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 75, 1B 105, 2B 90, 3B 121, K 86, BB 93 — applied at half strength. Age: age 18 vs a level average of 22.0 → +5.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (4.0 yr younger than average).
Result: wOBA .246 → .216; ISO .054 → .050; BABIP .206 → .192. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).