Jose Feliz — OGILVIE

Jose Feliz P FCL Nationals

Age 20 RHP 6'1" / 170 lbs ROK Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2033 peak 1.0 · 2031

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 70 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 117108vR 99

ERA4.33

FIP4.33

K%18.0%

BB%6.6%

K-BB%11.4%

ROS IP71

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 70 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF5060

CMD2560

K†4060

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2028

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2033

First FA Year 2034

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2028
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2028
2028	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.3	$1M	+$0.4M
2029	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.3	$1.0M	+$0.3M
2030	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.4	$1M	+$0.6M
2031	Arb-1	$9M	+0.4	$1M	+$0.0M (cut)
2032	Arb-2	$15M	+0.4	$1M	+$0.0M (cut)
2033	Arb-3	$21M	+0.4	$0.9M	+$0.0M (cut)
Totals		$3M		$6M	+$1M

Career Stats + Projections

Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
2024	18	ROK	DSL Nationals	10	10	46	180	54	11	2	100%	4.6	20.4%	7.6%	12.8%	1.1%	2.96	2.95	—
2024	18	ROK	DSL Nationals	10	10	46	180	54	11	2	100%	4.6	30.0%	6.1%	23.9%	1.1%	2.96	2.03	—
2025	19	ROK	FCL Nationals	14	13	61	248	51	12	2	93%	4.4	14.0%	6.0%	7.9%	0.7%	2.20	3.06	—
2025	19	ROK	FCL Nationals	14	13	61	248	51	12	2	93%	4.4	20.6%	4.8%	15.7%	0.8%	2.20	2.45	—
▸ 2026 Season
2026	20	MLB	WSH	18	18	86	364	65	24	10	100%	4.8	18.0%	6.6%	11.4%	2.8%	4.33	4.33	+0.8
▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘPARK-NEUTRAL MLE · ALL-LEVEL PT ⓘ
2027	21	MLB	WSH	26	26	124	525	106	34	15	100%	4.8	20.2%	6.5%	13.8%	2.8%	4.19	4.11	+1.9
2028	22	MLB	WSH	33	33	167	703	157	43	19	100%	5.0	22.4%	6.2%	16.2%	2.7%	4.00	3.86	+3.0
2029	23	MLB	WSH	33	33	175	739	176	44	20	100%	5.3	23.8%	5.9%	17.9%	2.7%	3.83	3.70	+3.5
2030	24	MLB	WSH	32	32	179	757	187	43	20	100%	5.6	24.7%	5.7%	18.9%	2.7%	3.69	3.59	+3.8
2031	25	MLB	WSH	31	31	180	760	192	43	20	100%	5.8	25.2%	5.6%	19.6%	2.7%	3.59	3.52	+4.0
2032	26	MLB	WSH	30	30	180	760	194	42	20	100%	6.0	25.5%	5.6%	19.9%	2.7%	3.53	3.49	+4.0
2033	27	MLB	WSH	30	30	177	749	191	42	20	100%	5.9	25.5%	5.7%	19.8%	2.7%	3.53	3.53	+3.9
2034	28	MLB	WSH	29	29	172	726	184	42	20	100%	5.9	25.4%	5.8%	19.6%	2.8%	3.58	3.61	+3.6
2035	29	MLB	WSH	27	27	164	694	174	42	20	100%	6.1	25.1%	6.0%	19.1%	3.0%	3.68	3.74	+3.2
2036	30	MLB	WSH	26	26	154	652	162	41	21	100%	5.9	24.8%	6.3%	18.4%	3.2%	3.82	3.92	+2.7
2037	31	MLB	WSH	24	24	144	608	148	41	21	100%	6.0	24.4%	6.7%	17.7%	3.4%	4.00	4.12	+2.2
2038	32	MLB	WSH	22	22	133	562	135	40	20	100%	6.1	23.9%	7.1%	16.9%	3.6%	4.21	4.35	+1.6
2039	33	MLB	WSH	20	20	122	516	121	39	20	100%	6.1	23.4%	7.5%	15.9%	3.9%	4.44	4.60	+1.1
2027	21	MLB	WSH	13	13	61	258	52	17	7	100%	4.7	20.2%	6.5%	13.8%	2.8%	4.19	4.11	+0.3
2028	22	MLB	WSH	24	24	121	511	114	31	14	100%	5.0	22.4%	6.2%	16.2%	2.7%	4.00	3.86	+2.2
2029	23	MLB	WSH	28	28	148	625	149	37	17	100%	5.3	23.8%	5.9%	17.9%	2.7%	3.83	3.70	+2.9
2030	24	MLB	WSH	29	29	160	676	167	39	18	100%	5.5	24.7%	5.7%	18.9%	2.7%	3.69	3.59	+3.4
2031	25	MLB	WSH	28	28	165	697	176	39	18	100%	5.9	25.2%	5.6%	19.6%	2.7%	3.59	3.52	+3.6
2032	26	MLB	WSH	28	28	168	709	181	40	19	100%	6.0	25.5%	5.6%	19.9%	2.7%	3.53	3.49	+3.8
2033	27	MLB	WSH	28	28	168	709	181	40	19	100%	6.0	25.5%	5.7%	19.8%	2.7%	3.53	3.53	+3.7
2034	28	MLB	WSH	27	27	163	688	175	40	19	100%	6.0	25.4%	5.8%	19.6%	2.8%	3.58	3.61	+3.4
2035	29	MLB	WSH	26	26	156	659	166	40	19	100%	6.0	25.1%	6.0%	19.1%	3.0%	3.68	3.74	+3.0
2036	30	MLB	WSH	24	24	147	621	154	39	20	100%	6.1	24.8%	6.3%	18.4%	3.2%	3.82	3.92	+2.5
2037	31	MLB	WSH	23	23	137	578	141	39	20	100%	6.0	24.4%	6.7%	17.7%	3.4%	4.00	4.12	+2.1
2038	32	MLB	WSH	21	21	127	536	128	38	19	100%	6.0	23.9%	7.1%	16.9%	3.6%	4.21	4.35	+1.6
2039	33	MLB	WSH	19	19	116	490	115	37	19	100%	6.1	23.4%	7.5%	15.9%	3.9%	4.44	4.60	+1.1
▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections)
Career	—			318	318	1837	7757	1898	475	229	100%	5.8	24.5%	6.1%	18.3%	3.0%	3.81	3.43	+42.3
/ 200 IP	—			35	35	200	844	207	52	25	100%	5.8	24.5%	6.1%	18.3%	3.0%	3.81	3.43	+4.6
Career	—			24	23	107	428	71	29	4	96%	4.5	16.7%	6.7%	10.0%	0.9%	2.52	3.01	+3.0
/ 200 IP	—			45	43	200	800	133	54	7	96%	4.5	16.7%	6.7%	10.0%	0.9%	2.52	3.01	+5.6

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Jose Feliz (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.33	18.0%	6.6%	2.8%	—	3.87	22.3%	16.2%	466	-0.46	—	—	—
Cedric De Grandpre R 2027 · 3.37 FIP	21	SP	3.37	18.2%	7.0%	1.7%	.327	4.12	24.1%	9.1%	132	+0.75	3.37	219	88
Matt Tabor R 2027 · 3.57 FIP	21	SP	3.57	19.8%	5.0%	2.8%	.287	5.84	16.8%	7.7%	107	+2.27	3.57	203	86
Freicer Perez R 2025 · 3.72 FIP	19	SP	3.72	15.5%	7.1%	1.9%	.295	4.05	16.1%	4.5%	149	+0.33	3.72	234	86
Garrett Burhenn R 2028 · 4.19 FIP	22	SP	4.19	21.1%	7.7%	3.5%	.333	4.44	16.9%	8.8%	341	+0.25	4.19	433	85
Chih-Wei Hu R 2027 · 4.10 FIP	21	SP	4.10	16.8%	7.3%	2.7%	.319	3.85	17.3%	11.1%	320	-0.25	3.36	497	85
Austin Gordon R 2028 · 4.70 FIP	22	SP	4.70	19.5%	8.3%	4.0%	.315	5.46	17.4%	7.9%	75	+0.76	4.70	159	84
Hyun-il Choi R 2025 · 3.97 FIP	19	SP-	3.97	18.4%	5.2%	3.2%	.293	4.37	19.1%	14.1%	106	+0.40	3.97	455	84
Gage Ziehl R 2028 · 3.94 FIP	22	SP	3.94	14.8%	5.1%	2.6%	.313	4.96	21.0%	15.4%	67	+1.02	3.94	170	84
Austin Cates R 2028 · 3.75 FIP	22	SP	3.75	19.7%	9.0%	2.1%	.266	5.12	17.3%	3.2%	73	+1.37	3.75	183	84
Connor Staine R 2028 · 3.71 FIP	22	SP	3.71	16.5%	7.9%	1.8%	.343	5.03	17.5%	4.4%	276	+1.32	3.71	370	83
Jarrod Cande R 2028 · 4.43 FIP	22	SP-	4.43	19.1%	7.3%	3.7%	.330	5.02	18.1%	9.1%	212	+0.59	4.37	292	83
Christian Zazueta R 2026 · 3.80 FIP	20	SP	3.80	22.0%	7.0%	3.0%	.277	3.55	28.6%	22.7%	66	-0.25	3.55	276	83
Adam Maier R 2028 · 3.63 FIP	22	SP	3.63	16.3%	8.1%	1.6%	.323	5.35	14.3%	4.3%	156	+1.72	3.63	239	83
Brock Dykxhoorn R 2027 · 3.85 FIP	21	SP-	3.85	15.5%	6.8%	2.2%	.287	4.35	16.4%	8.3%	350	+0.50	3.85	459	83
Yoel Tejeda Jr. R 2028 · 3.46 FIP	22	SP	3.46	17.0%	7.7%	1.5%	.299	3.66	21.5%	9.2%	80	+0.20	3.46	158	83
Logan Workman R 2029 · 4.30 FIP	23	SP	4.30	19.3%	7.4%	3.5%	.287	3.81	20.4%	12.5%	362	-0.49	3.73	540	83
Harold Arauz R 2027 · 3.66 FIP	21	SP	3.66	15.9%	7.2%	1.8%	.265	4.32	15.5%	8.5%	311	+0.66	2.97	410	83
Jaron DeBerry R 2028 · 4.01 FIP	22	SP	4.01	17.8%	8.7%	2.4%	.308	5.03	21.2%	8.2%	83	+1.02	4.01	175	83
Mason Englert R 2027 · 3.43 FIP	21	SP	3.43	19.5%	9.0%	1.5%	.311	4.67	22.3%	15.1%	249	+1.24	2.77	461	83
Marcelo Perez R 2029 · 4.02 FIP	23	SP	4.02	18.0%	8.6%	2.5%	.288	4.99	14.1%	6.7%	217	+0.97	4.02	285	83

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	Yrs	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	14	154	24.0%	6.1%	1.13	3.84
Jon Gray ('24)	10	122	23.4%	7.8%	1.15	4.45
Joe Musgrove ('24)	9	117	23.9%	6.0%	1.13	3.73
Lance Lynn ('24)	9	154	23.9%	8.1%	1.20	3.86
Zack Greinke ('23) CYAS×6GG×6SS×2HOF	9	169	21.2%	4.8%	1.10	3.42
Kyle Gibson ('24)	10	164	19.6%	8.3%	1.14	4.46
Madison Bumgarner ('22) AS×4SS	8	155	22.7%	5.9%	1.23	3.70