Jose Feliz — OGILVIE

Jose Feliz P FCL Nationals

Age 20 RHP 6'1" / 170 lbs ROK Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2033 peak 1.4 · 2032

2026 ROS PROJECTION0 act + 6 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 114106vR 98

ERA4.25

FIP4.25

K%18.0%

BB%5.9%

K-BB%12.1%

ROS IP6

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 6 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$80M ctrl surplus

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF5060

CMD2560

K†4060

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2028

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2033

First FA Year 2034

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2028
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2028
2028	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+1.6	$11M	+$10M
2029	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+2.3	$15M	+$14M
2030	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+2.7	$17M	+$16M
2031	Arb-1	$9M	+2.9	$17M	+$12M
2032	Arb-2	$15M	+3.0	$17M	+$9M
2033	Arb-3	$22M	+2.9	$15M	+$5M
Totals		$48M		$92M	+$66M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2024	18	ROK MLE	DSL Nationals	10	10	46	180	54	11	2	100%	4.6	20.4%	7.6%	12.8%	1.3%	2.96	3.05	—
2024	18	ROK MLE	DSL Nationals	10	10	46	180	54	11	2	100%	4.6	20.4%	7.6%	12.8%	1.3%	2.96	3.05	—
2024	18	ROK RAW	DSL Nationals	10	10	46	180	54	11	2	100%	4.6	30.0%	6.1%	23.9%	1.1%	2.96	2.03	—
2025	19	ROK MLE	FCL Nationals	14	13	61	248	51	12	2	93%	4.4	14.0%	6.0%	7.9%	0.9%	2.20	3.15	—
2025	19	ROK MLE	FCL Nationals	14	13	61	248	51	12	2	93%	4.4	14.0%	6.0%	7.9%	0.9%	2.20	3.15	—
2025	19	ROK RAW	FCL Nationals	14	13	61	248	51	12	2	93%	4.4	20.6%	4.8%	15.7%	0.8%	2.20	2.45	—
▸ 2026 season — projected remainder (no 2026 stats recorded)
2026	20	MLB	WSH	1	1	6	25	5	1	1	100%	6.0	18.0%	5.9%	12.1%	2.8%	4.25	4.25	+0.0
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	21	MLB MLE	WSH	26	26	124	525	106	31	15	100%	4.8	20.2%	5.9%	14.4%	2.8%	4.13	4.04	+1.3
2028	22	MLB MLE	WSH	33	33	167	703	157	39	19	100%	5.0	22.4%	5.6%	16.8%	2.7%	3.94	3.80	+2.2
2029	23	MLB MLE	WSH	33	33	175	739	176	40	20	100%	5.3	23.8%	5.4%	18.4%	2.7%	3.77	3.64	+2.7
2030	24	MLB MLE	WSH	32	32	179	757	187	40	20	100%	5.6	24.7%	5.2%	19.5%	2.7%	3.63	3.53	+3.0
2031	25	MLB MLE	WSH	31	31	180	760	192	39	20	100%	5.8	25.2%	5.1%	20.1%	2.7%	3.53	3.46	+3.2
2032	26	MLB MLE	WSH	30	30	180	760	194	38	20	100%	6.0	25.5%	5.1%	20.4%	2.7%	3.47	3.43	+3.2
2033	27	MLB MLE	WSH	30	30	177	749	191	38	20	100%	5.9	25.5%	5.1%	20.4%	2.7%	3.47	3.47	+3.1
2034	28	MLB MLE	WSH	29	29	172	726	184	38	20	100%	5.9	25.4%	5.3%	20.1%	2.8%	3.52	3.55	+2.8
2035	29	MLB MLE	WSH	27	27	164	694	174	38	21	100%	6.1	25.1%	5.5%	19.6%	3.0%	3.62	3.68	+2.4
2036	30	MLB MLE	WSH	26	26	154	652	162	38	21	100%	5.9	24.8%	5.8%	19.0%	3.2%	3.76	3.86	+1.9
2037	31	MLB MLE	WSH	24	24	144	608	148	37	21	100%	6.0	24.4%	6.2%	18.2%	3.4%	3.94	4.06	+1.4
2038	32	MLB MLE	WSH	22	22	133	562	135	37	20	100%	6.1	23.9%	6.6%	17.4%	3.6%	4.15	4.29	+1.0
2039	33	MLB MLE	WSH	20	20	122	516	121	36	20	100%	6.1	23.4%	7.0%	16.4%	3.9%	4.38	4.54	+0.5
2027	21	MLB CTX	WSH	13	13	61	258	52	15	7	100%	4.7	20.2%	5.9%	14.4%	2.8%	4.13	4.04	+0.6
2028	22	MLB CTX	WSH	24	24	121	511	114	29	14	100%	5.0	22.4%	5.6%	16.8%	2.7%	3.94	3.80	+1.6
2029	23	MLB CTX	WSH	28	28	148	625	149	34	17	100%	5.3	23.8%	5.4%	18.4%	2.7%	3.77	3.64	+2.3
2030	24	MLB CTX	WSH	29	29	160	676	167	35	18	100%	5.5	24.7%	5.2%	19.5%	2.7%	3.63	3.53	+2.7
2031	25	MLB CTX	WSH	28	28	165	697	176	36	19	100%	5.9	25.2%	5.1%	20.1%	2.7%	3.53	3.46	+2.9
2032	26	MLB CTX	WSH	28	28	168	709	181	36	19	100%	6.0	25.5%	5.1%	20.4%	2.7%	3.47	3.43	+3.0
2033	27	MLB CTX	WSH	28	28	168	709	181	36	19	100%	6.0	25.5%	5.1%	20.4%	2.7%	3.47	3.47	+2.9
2034	28	MLB CTX	WSH	27	27	163	688	175	36	19	100%	6.0	25.4%	5.3%	20.1%	2.8%	3.52	3.55	+2.7
2035	29	MLB CTX	WSH	26	26	156	659	166	36	20	100%	6.0	25.1%	5.5%	19.6%	3.0%	3.62	3.68	+2.3
2036	30	MLB CTX	WSH	24	24	147	621	154	36	20	100%	6.1	24.8%	5.8%	19.0%	3.2%	3.76	3.86	+1.8
2037	31	MLB CTX	WSH	23	23	137	578	141	36	20	100%	6.0	24.4%	6.2%	18.2%	3.4%	3.94	4.06	+1.4
2038	32	MLB CTX	WSH	21	21	127	536	128	35	20	100%	6.0	23.9%	6.6%	17.4%	3.6%	4.15	4.29	+0.9
2039	33	MLB CTX	WSH	19	19	116	490	115	34	19	100%	6.1	23.4%	7.0%	16.4%	3.9%	4.38	4.54	+0.5
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		318	318	1837	7757	1898	434	230	100%	5.8	24.5%	5.6%	18.9%	3.0%	3.75	3.37	+34.6
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		35	35	200	844	207	47	25	100%	5.8	24.5%	5.6%	18.9%	3.0%	3.75	3.37	+3.8
Career	—	MLE		24	23	107	428	71	29	4	96%	4.5	16.7%	6.7%	10.0%	1.0%	2.52	3.11	+28.5
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		45	43	200	800	133	54	8	96%	4.5	16.7%	6.7%	10.0%	1.0%	2.52	3.11	+2.8

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Jose Feliz (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.25	18.0%	5.9%	2.8%	—	3.80	22.3%	16.7%	466	-0.45	—	—	—
Matt Tabor R 2019 · 3.36 FIP	21	SP	3.36	19.8%	5.0%	2.4%	.287	5.90	16.8%	7.7%	107	+2.54	3.36	203	88
Cedric De Grandpre R 2023 · 3.38 FIP	21	SP	3.38	18.2%	7.0%	1.7%	.327	4.17	22.9%	8.9%	177	+0.79	3.38	264	87
Hyun-il Choi R 2019 · 3.97 FIP	19	SP-	3.97	18.4%	5.2%	3.2%	.293	4.26	19.1%	14.1%	106	+0.29	3.97	455	86
Freicer Perez R 2015 · 3.72 FIP	19	SP	3.72	15.5%	7.1%	1.9%	.295	4.05	16.1%	4.5%	149	+0.33	3.72	234	84
Garrett Burhenn R 2022 · 4.40 FIP	22	SP	4.40	21.1%	7.7%	3.8%	.333	4.37	16.9%	8.8%	341	-0.03	4.30	433	83
Matt Eckelman R 2016 · 4.30 FIP	22	SP	4.30	15.6%	4.7%	3.5%	.265	4.44	16.3%	5.4%	169	+0.14	4.07	386	83
Jarrod Cande R 2022 · 4.31 FIP	22	SP-	4.31	19.1%	7.3%	3.5%	.330	4.94	18.1%	9.1%	212	+0.63	4.31	304	83
Chih-Wei Hu R 2015 · 3.78 FIP	21	SP	3.78	16.8%	7.3%	2.1%	.319	3.87	17.3%	11.1%	320	+0.09	3.41	497	83
Peniel Otano R 2021 · 3.06 FIP	20	SP	3.06	19.3%	7.4%	1.2%	.307	4.67	14.6%	-1.0%	176	+1.61	3.06	232	82
Connor Staine R 2023 · 3.86 FIP	22	SP	3.86	16.5%	7.9%	2.1%	.343	5.08	17.3%	4.6%	320	+1.22	3.86	414	82
Landon Marceaux R 2022 · 3.64 FIP	22	SP	3.64	16.1%	4.9%	2.3%	.245	4.81	13.3%	5.3%	61	+1.17	3.64	146	82
Logan Workman R 2022 · 4.33 FIP	23	SP	4.33	19.3%	7.4%	3.5%	.287	3.97	19.8%	12.5%	362	-0.36	3.83	573	82
Wil Jensen R 2021 · 4.37 FIP	23	SP	4.37	18.9%	6.9%	3.6%	.300	4.37	21.0%	11.3%	266	+0.00	3.48	368	82
Brock Dykxhoorn R 2015 · 3.89 FIP	21	SP-	3.89	15.5%	6.8%	2.2%	.287	4.48	16.4%	8.3%	350	+0.59	3.89	459	82
Steven Zobac R 2023 · 3.27 FIP	22	SP-	3.27	19.7%	7.5%	1.6%	.332	4.28	18.5%	11.0%	205	+1.01	3.25	296	82
Logan Shore R 2017 · 3.09 FIP	22	SP-	3.09	18.3%	5.9%	1.4%	.350	4.17	13.2%	4.9%	188	+1.08	3.09	386	82
Cody Morris R 2019 · 3.73 FIP	22	SP	3.73	21.6%	8.1%	2.6%	.362	2.85	31.1%	20.9%	96	-0.88	2.23	256	81
Colin Peluse R 2021 · 4.20 FIP	23	SP	4.20	20.4%	7.2%	3.5%	.299	5.51	14.8%	7.1%	236	+1.31	3.05	420	81
Nick Gardewine R 2015 · 4.24 FIP	21	SP-	4.24	14.4%	6.3%	2.8%	.334	3.18	24.5%	16.4%	104	-1.06	2.62	200	81
Geoffrey Bramblett R 2016 · 3.75 FIP	21	SP	3.75	15.1%	5.8%	2.2%	.223	5.35	11.3%	1.5%	81	+1.60	3.75	130	81

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	10.8	154	24.0%	5.6%	1.14	3.78
Joe Musgrove ('24)	5.3	117	23.9%	6.0%	1.13	3.73
Jon Gray ('24)	6.1	122	23.4%	7.8%	1.15	4.45
Alex Wood ('24)	5.0	111	21.6%	7.0%	0.96	3.98
Noah Syndergaard ('23)	4.7	134	23.8%	5.5%	0.95	3.70
Kenta Maeda ('24)	4.9	122	25.9%	6.9%	1.30	4.17
Jordan Montgomery ('24)	4.3	124	21.4%	6.9%	1.07	4.01