Jose Feliz

P FCL Nationals

Age 21 RHP 6'1" / 170 lbs ROK Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2033 peak 1.0 · 2030

Overview

ROKPROSPECTMiLBFA 2034

OGV OFP40OGV rank#200ETA2028MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	18	ROKWSH	10	10	46	2.96	2.03	30.0%	6.1%	—	K 20.4% · BB 7.6% · FIP 3.05
2025	19	ROKWSH	14	13	61	2.20	2.45	20.6%	4.8%	—	K 14.0% · BB 6.0% · FIP 3.15
2027PROJ	21	MLBWSH	—	—	0	4.28	4.28	18.4%	6.0%	—
2028PROJ49% MLB	22	MLBWSH	11	11	55	4.14	4.04	20.6%	5.8%	0.9
2029PROJ73% MLB	23	MLBWSH	18	18	96	3.99	3.89	21.9%	5.6%	1.7

Next 3 projected WAR 2.6Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2033Service0.0First FA2034

2027MiLB2028Pre-Arb$0.8M2029Pre-Arb$0.8M2030Pre-Arb$0.8M2031Arb-1$5M2032Arb-2$9M2033Arb-3$13M

CompsMatt Tabor (age 21) · Matt Duffy (age 22) · Cedric De Grandpre (age 21)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 115106vR 98

ERA4.28

FIP4.28

K%18.4%

BB%6.0%

K-BB%12.4%

Proj IP90

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 90 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$63M ctrl surplus

Contract

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2028

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2033

First FA Year 2034

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2028
2028	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.9	$3M	+$3M
2029	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+1.7	$12M	+$11M
2030	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+2.1	$13M	+$13M
2031	Arb-1	$5M	+2.3	$14M	+$10M
2032	Arb-2	$9M	+2.4	$13M	+$8M
2033	Arb-3	$13M	+2.3	$12M	+$5M
Totals		$30M		$67M	+$49M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2024	18	ROK MLE	DSL Nationals	10	10	46	180	54	11	2	100%	4.6	20.4%	7.6%	12.8%	1.3%	2.96	3.05	—
2024	18	ROK MLE	DSL Nationals	10	10	46	180	54	11	2	100%	4.6	20.4%	7.6%	12.8%	1.3%	2.96	3.05	—
2024	18	ROK RAW	DSL Nationals	10	10	46	180	54	11	2	100%	4.6	30.0%	6.1%	23.9%	1.1%	2.96	2.03	—
2025	19	ROK MLE	FCL Nationals	14	13	61	248	51	12	2	93%	4.4	14.0%	6.0%	7.9%	0.9%	2.20	3.15	—
2025	19	ROK MLE	FCL Nationals	14	13	61	248	51	12	2	93%	4.4	14.0%	6.0%	7.9%	0.9%	2.20	3.15	—
2025	19	ROK RAW	FCL Nationals	14	13	61	248	51	12	2	93%	4.4	20.6%	4.8%	15.7%	0.8%	2.20	2.45	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	21	MLB	WSH	—	—	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	18.4%	6.0%	12.4%	2.9%	4.28	4.28	—
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	22	MLB MLE	WSH	22	22	111	468	96	27	13	100%	5.0	20.6%	5.8%	14.8%	2.9%	4.14	4.04	+1.8
2029	23	MLB MLE	WSH	25	25	132	556	122	31	16	100%	5.3	21.9%	5.6%	16.3%	2.8%	3.99	3.89	+2.4
2030	24	MLB MLE	WSH	24	24	132	557	127	31	16	100%	5.5	22.8%	5.5%	17.3%	2.8%	3.88	3.79	+2.5
2031	25	MLB MLE	WSH	22	22	130	551	128	30	15	100%	5.9	23.2%	5.4%	17.8%	2.8%	3.80	3.74	+2.6
2032	26	MLB MLE	WSH	22	22	131	552	129	30	15	100%	5.9	23.4%	5.4%	18.1%	2.8%	3.75	3.72	+2.6
2033	27	MLB MLE	WSH	21	21	128	541	127	29	15	100%	6.1	23.4%	5.4%	18.0%	2.8%	3.75	3.76	+2.5
2034	28	MLB MLE	WSH	20	20	123	518	121	29	15	100%	6.1	23.3%	5.6%	17.7%	2.9%	3.80	3.84	+2.3
2035	29	MLB MLE	WSH	19	19	115	484	112	28	15	100%	6.0	23.1%	5.8%	17.2%	3.1%	3.90	3.97	+2.0
2036	30	MLB MLE	WSH	17	17	104	440	100	27	15	100%	6.1	22.7%	6.1%	16.6%	3.3%	4.05	4.15	+1.5
2037	31	MLB MLE	WSH	16	16	93	394	88	25	14	100%	5.8	22.3%	6.5%	15.8%	3.5%	4.23	4.35	+1.1
2038	32	MLB MLE	WSH	14	14	82	347	76	24	13	100%	5.9	21.9%	6.9%	15.0%	3.8%	4.44	4.57	+0.8
2039	33	MLB MLE	WSH	12	12	72	302	65	22	12	100%	6.0	21.3%	7.3%	14.0%	4.0%	4.67	4.83	+0.5
2040	34	MLB MLE	WSH	10	10	62	262	55	21	11	100%	6.2	20.8%	7.8%	13.0%	4.3%	4.93	5.10	+0.2
2028	22	MLB CTX	WSH	11	11	55	232	48	13	7	100%	5.0	20.6%	5.8%	14.8%	2.9%	4.14	4.04	+0.9
2029	23	MLB CTX	WSH	18	18	96	405	89	23	11	100%	5.3	21.9%	5.6%	16.3%	2.8%	3.99	3.89	+1.7
2030	24	MLB CTX	WSH	19	19	109	460	105	25	13	100%	5.7	22.8%	5.5%	17.3%	2.8%	3.88	3.79	+2.1
2031	25	MLB CTX	WSH	20	20	115	486	113	26	14	100%	5.8	23.2%	5.4%	17.8%	2.8%	3.80	3.74	+2.3
2032	26	MLB CTX	WSH	20	20	119	502	118	27	14	100%	6.0	23.4%	5.4%	18.1%	2.8%	3.75	3.72	+2.4
2033	27	MLB CTX	WSH	20	20	119	502	118	27	14	100%	6.0	23.4%	5.4%	18.0%	2.8%	3.75	3.76	+2.3
2034	28	MLB CTX	WSH	19	19	115	486	113	27	14	100%	6.1	23.3%	5.6%	17.7%	2.9%	3.80	3.84	+2.1
2035	29	MLB CTX	WSH	18	18	109	460	106	27	14	100%	6.1	23.1%	5.8%	17.2%	3.1%	3.90	3.97	+1.9
2036	30	MLB CTX	WSH	16	16	99	418	95	26	14	100%	6.2	22.7%	6.1%	16.6%	3.3%	4.05	4.15	+1.5
2037	31	MLB CTX	WSH	15	15	89	376	84	24	13	100%	5.9	22.3%	6.5%	15.8%	3.5%	4.23	4.35	+1.1
2038	32	MLB CTX	WSH	13	13	78	329	72	23	12	100%	6.0	21.9%	6.9%	15.0%	3.8%	4.44	4.57	+0.8
2039	33	MLB CTX	WSH	11	11	68	287	61	21	12	100%	6.2	21.3%	7.3%	14.0%	4.0%	4.67	4.83	+0.4
2040	34	MLB CTX	WSH	9	9	56	236	49	18	10	100%	6.2	20.8%	7.8%	13.0%	4.3%	4.93	5.10	+0.2
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		210	210	1227	5180	1169	308	163	100%	5.8	22.6%	5.9%	16.6%	3.1%	4.03	3.67	+25.7
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		34	34	200	844	191	50	27	100%	5.8	22.6%	5.9%	16.6%	3.1%	4.03	3.67	+4.2
Career	—	MLE		24	23	107	428	71	29	4	96%	4.5	16.7%	6.7%	10.0%	1.0%	2.52	3.11	+22.8
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		45	43	200	800	133	54	8	96%	4.5	16.7%	6.7%	10.0%	1.0%	2.52	3.11	+3.2

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2025 ROKFCL Nationals · 61 IPFIP 2.42 → 3.15 (+0.73)K% 20.6% → 14.0%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	20.56%	—	×0.680	13.98%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	4.84%	—	×1.250	6.05%
HR / BF /BF	0.81%	÷1.328	×1.400	0.85%

Factors used: pitcher ROK level factors — K ×0.68, BB ×1.25, HR ×1.40. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 166).

Result: FIP 2.42 → 3.15, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 ROKDSL Nationals · 46 IPFIP 1.95 → 3.05 (+1.10)K% 30.0% → 20.4%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	30.00%	—	×0.680	20.40%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	6.11%	—	×1.250	7.64%
HR / BF /BF	1.11%	÷1.207	×1.400	1.29%

Result: FIP 1.95 → 3.05, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Jose Feliz (OGILVIE)	—	—	—	—	—	2.9%	—	3.90	21.8%	16.2%	375	-0.38	—	—	—
Matt Tabor R 2019 · 3.36 FIP	21	SP	3.36	19.8%	5.0%	2.4%	.287	5.90	16.8%	7.7%	107	+2.54	3.36	203	90
Matt Duffy R 2024 · 4.07 FIP	22	SP	4.07	18.5%	7.9%	2.8%	.274	9.34	22.0%	9.7%	17	+5.27	4.07	116	89
Cedric De Grandpre R 2023 · 3.38 FIP	21	SP	3.38	18.2%	7.0%	1.7%	.327	4.17	22.9%	9.1%	183	+0.79	3.38	269	87
Logan Workman R 2022 · 4.33 FIP	23	SP	4.33	19.3%	7.4%	3.5%	.287	3.94	20.1%	12.8%	362	-0.39	3.82	579	86
Garrett Burhenn R 2022 · 4.40 FIP	22	SP	4.40	21.1%	7.7%	3.8%	.333	4.37	16.9%	8.8%	341	-0.03	4.30	433	86
Wil Jensen R 2021 · 4.37 FIP	23	SP	4.37	18.9%	6.9%	3.6%	.300	4.37	21.0%	11.3%	266	+0.00	3.48	368	85
Colin Peluse R 2021 · 4.20 FIP	23	SP	4.20	20.4%	7.2%	3.5%	.299	5.49	15.0%	7.2%	236	+1.29	3.05	420	85
Jarrod Cande R 2022 · 4.31 FIP	22	SP-	4.31	19.1%	7.3%	3.5%	.330	4.94	18.1%	9.1%	212	+0.63	4.31	315	85
Matt Eckelman R 2016 · 4.30 FIP	22	SP	4.30	15.6%	4.7%	3.5%	.265	4.44	16.3%	5.4%	169	+0.14	4.07	386	84
Cody Morris R 2019 · 3.73 FIP	22	SP	3.73	21.6%	8.1%	2.6%	.362	2.85	31.1%	20.9%	96	-0.88	2.23	256	84
Seth Shuman R 2021 · 4.86 FIP	23	SP	4.86	18.9%	7.6%	4.4%	.297	4.48	15.4%	8.4%	109	-0.38	3.16	357	84
Landon Marceaux R 2022 · 3.64 FIP	22	SP	3.64	16.1%	4.9%	2.3%	.245	4.81	13.3%	5.3%	61	+1.17	3.64	146	84
Connor Staine R 2023 · 3.86 FIP	22	SP	3.86	16.5%	7.9%	2.1%	.343	5.08	17.3%	4.6%	320	+1.22	3.86	414	84
Chih-Wei Hu R 2015 · 3.78 FIP	21	SP	3.78	16.8%	7.3%	2.1%	.319	3.87	17.3%	11.1%	320	+0.09	3.41	497	83
Zack Lee R 2024 · 3.51 FIP	23	SP-	3.51	19.2%	7.0%	2.1%	.293	4.54	15.0%	6.5%	153	+1.03	3.22	236	83
Steven Zobac R 2023 · 3.27 FIP	22	SP-	3.27	19.7%	7.5%	1.6%	.332	4.28	18.5%	11.0%	205	+1.01	3.25	296	83
Tanner Gordon R 2021 · 4.35 FIP	23	SP	4.35	18.5%	5.5%	3.8%	.290	4.67	18.5%	11.9%	349	+0.32	4.10	715	83
Gabe Mosser R 2019 · 3.75 FIP	23	SP	3.75	17.7%	6.3%	2.5%	.346	4.57	14.9%	6.9%	104	+0.82	3.75	658	83
Ty Langenberg R 2024 · 3.49 FIP	22	SP	3.49	19.2%	7.6%	1.9%	.325	4.01	16.7%	6.8%	229	+0.52	3.49	337	83
Blake Burkhalter R 2024 · 3.35 FIP	23	SP	3.35	17.3%	6.5%	1.6%	.317	3.55	18.1%	7.9%	133	+0.20	3.25	202	83

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 927 starter careers (497 from 1990-2025 + 430 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	7.5	107	22.3%	5.9%	1.20	4.04
John Candelaria ('75-'93, 42 WAR*)	12.6	140	22.5%*	5.7%*	1.34*	3.73*
Phil Hughes ('18)	6.5	108	18.9%	5.7%	1.33	4.52
Danny Darwin ('78-'98, 36 WAR*)	15.1	151	20.5%*	6.7%*	1.21*	4.02*
Atlee Hammaker ('81-'95, 9 WAR*)	5.4	120	18.1%*	6.4%*	1.18*	4.37*
Jeff Samardzija ('20)	8.2	150	21.0%	7.1%	1.12	4.15
Chris Capuano ('16)	7.1	119	19.5%	7.5%	1.23	4.38