Ty Langenberg — OGILVIE

Ty Langenberg P Wichita Wind Surge

+0.8 WAR

Age 24 RHP 6'2" / 190 lbs AA Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2034 peak 1.5 · 2028

ERA4.41

FIP4.41

xFIP—

SIERA—

K%19.8%

BB%10.0%

K-BB%9.8%

IP106

trajectory · 10 yrs

1.5peak

2028

K†4550

Career (MLE) + Projections

Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	K%	BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
2023	21	A	Fort Myers Mighty Mussels	5	0	7	34	5	4	0	—	—	—	3.68	—	—
2024	22	A+	Cedar Rapids Kernels	21	20	108	456	116	30	8	19.2%	7.6%	2.0%	3.67	3.53	+2.2
2025	23	A+	Cedar Rapids Kernels	22	21	105	465	98	47	4	16.2%	11.6%	1.1%	4.87	3.82	+1.8
▸ 2026 Season
2026	24	AA	Wichita Wind Surge	3	2	12	47	17	1	0	—	—	—	1.54	—	—
ROS	24	MLB	MIN	19	19	106	448	89	45	11	19.8%	10.0%	2.4%	4.41	4.41	+1.1
2026 Total	24	MLB	MIN	—	—	118	495	106	46	11	21.3%	9.2%	2.2%	4.13	3.97	+1.8
▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging
2027	25	MLB	MIN	22	22	120	505	104	47	13	20.6%	9.4%	2.5%	4.33	4.29	+1.4
2028	26	MLB	MIN	23	23	126	534	112	49	13	20.9%	9.2%	2.5%	4.29	4.26	+1.5
2029	27	MLB	MIN	24	24	130	547	115	50	14	21.0%	9.2%	2.6%	4.28	4.27	+1.5
2030	28	MLB	MIN	24	24	130	548	115	50	14	21.0%	9.2%	2.6%	4.29	4.29	+1.5
2031	29	MLB	MIN	23	23	127	535	112	49	14	20.8%	9.2%	2.6%	4.32	4.34	+1.4
2032	30	MLB	MIN	22	22	123	519	107	49	14	20.6%	9.3%	2.7%	4.37	4.40	+1.3
2033	31	MLB	MIN	22	22	119	501	102	47	14	20.4%	9.5%	2.8%	4.43	4.48	+1.1
2034	32	MLB	MIN	21	21	114	481	97	46	14	20.1%	9.6%	2.9%	4.51	4.56	+1.0
2035	33	MLB	MIN	20	20	109	460	91	45	14	19.8%	9.8%	2.9%	4.60	4.66	+0.8
2036	34	MLB	MIN	19	19	104	437	85	44	13	19.5%	10.0%	3.0%	4.70	4.77	+0.6
2037	35	MLB	MIN	18	18	98	412	79	42	13	19.1%	10.2%	3.2%	4.82	4.89	+0.4
2038	36	MLB	MIN	17	17	91	385	72	40	13	18.7%	10.5%	3.3%	4.94	5.03	+0.2
2039	37	MLB	MIN	15	15	85	357	65	38	12	18.2%	10.8%	3.4%	5.08	5.17	-0.0
▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected)
Career	—			51	43	232	1002	185	94	14	18.5%	9.4%	1.4%	4.11	3.51	+4.7
/ 200 IP	—			44	37	200	863	159	81	12	18.5%	9.4%	1.4%	4.11	3.51	+4.1

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Ty Langenberg (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.41	19.8%	10.0%	2.4%	—	4.27	20.8%	11.6%	376	-0.14	—	—	—
Ian Mejia R 2026 · 4.18 FIP	24	SP-	4.18	18.7%	11.6%	2.2%	.288	3.95	17.0%	8.9%	127	-0.23	3.95	373	92
Tyler Uberstine R 2025 · 4.15 FIP	23	SP-	4.15	19.5%	10.5%	2.5%	.302	4.38	23.2%	14.7%	121	+0.23	4.15	212	92
Daniel Blair R 2026 · 4.09 FIP	24	SP-	4.09	16.6%	10.0%	2.0%	.284	4.39	17.0%	7.8%	78	+0.30	4.09	171	92
Nick Hull R 2026 · 4.58 FIP	24	SP-	4.58	19.0%	12.2%	2.8%	.296	5.08	18.4%	6.8%	57	+0.50	4.27	238	92
Justin Armbruester R 2026 · 4.52 FIP	24	SP-	4.52	18.0%	10.5%	2.9%	.271	5.93	20.6%	7.6%	119	+1.41	4.52	358	91
Brett Daniels R 2025 · 3.95 FIP	23	SP-	3.95	18.5%	12.1%	1.6%	.266	4.47	21.4%	7.9%	152	+0.52	3.95	270	91
Cooper Chandler R 2026 · 4.30 FIP	24	SP-	4.30	17.8%	9.3%	2.8%	.300	3.77	23.5%	17.1%	18	-0.53	3.77	107	91
Hunter Adkins R 2027 · 4.71 FIP	25	SP-	4.71	16.2%	10.3%	3.0%	.290	4.81	11.8%	0.5%	58	+0.10	4.71	160	91
Rorik Maltrud R 2026 · 3.89 FIP	24	SP-	3.89	20.4%	9.6%	2.4%	.300	4.44	18.2%	7.0%	78	+0.55	3.89	183	91
Corey Baker R 2027 · 3.77 FIP	25	SP-	3.77	17.4%	10.2%	1.5%	.295	5.02	15.5%	7.3%	170	+1.25	3.08	267	91
Dylan Cumming R 2026 · 4.08 FIP	24	SP-	4.08	16.0%	10.7%	1.8%	.311	3.86	20.2%	11.2%	203	-0.22	3.77	295	90
Carlos Sano R 2027 · 4.88 FIP	25	SP-	4.88	17.6%	11.2%	3.4%	.282	9.12	19.7%	7.1%	18	+4.24	4.88	105	90
Noah Davis R 2026 · 3.75 FIP	24	SP-	3.75	19.4%	11.8%	1.5%	.264	5.04	18.9%	7.8%	312	+1.29	2.95	492	90
Cameron Foster R 2026 · 4.30 FIP	24	SP-	4.30	18.9%	10.3%	2.7%	.329	3.95	21.4%	10.8%	118	-0.35	2.58	199	89
Linder Castro R 2026 · 4.63 FIP	24	SP-	4.63	15.3%	11.5%	2.5%	.327	4.38	16.4%	6.5%	111	-0.25	4.25	279	89
Riley Thompson R 2025 · 4.66 FIP	23	SP-	4.66	16.5%	9.4%	3.2%	.288	5.32	21.7%	7.0%	57	+0.66	4.63	340	89
Emmanuel Chapman R 2027 · 4.03 FIP	25	SP-	4.03	19.7%	10.6%	2.3%	.256	3.80	18.2%	4.1%	73	-0.23	3.80	154	89
Jason Savacool R 2025 · 4.29 FIP	23	SP-	4.29	16.6%	11.6%	2.1%	.285	—	—	—	—	—	4.29	199	88
Zach Fruit R 2026 · 4.28 FIP	24	SP-	4.28	19.3%	14.1%	1.9%	.258	5.07	15.4%	-0.2%	44	+0.79	4.28	151	88
Matt Ruppenthal R 2025 · 4.51 FIP	23	SP-	4.51	19.1%	14.3%	2.2%	.290	4.25	21.4%	6.5%	143	-0.26	3.75	283	88

Contract

ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2029

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2034

First FA Year 2035

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2029	Arb-1	$0.8M	+1.5	$13M	+$12M
2030	Arb-2	$0.9M	+1.5	$14M	+$13M
2031	Arb-3	$0.9M	+1.4	$13M	+$12M
2032	Ext / FA-deal	$2M	+1.3	$12M	+$11M
2033	Ext / FA-deal	$3M	+1.1	$11M	+$8M
2034	Ext / FA-deal	$3M	+1.0	$10M	+$7M
Totals		$11M		$73M	+$62M