Ty Langenberg

P Wichita Wind Surge

Age 25 RHP 6'2" / 190 lbs AA Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2034 peak 0.9 · 2028

Overview

AAPROSPECTMiLBFA 2035

OGV OFP35OGV rank#888ETA2028MLB%2%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	22	MIX2 levels	21	20	108	3.67	2.75	25.4%	6.6%	—	K 19.2% · BB 7.6% · FIP 3.49
2025	23	A+MIN	22	21	105	4.87	3.07	21.1%	10.1%	—	K 16.2% · BB 11.6% · FIP 3.82
2026	24	MIX2 levels	33	23	124	4.29	3.64	20.8%	8.2%	—	K 17.1% · BB 8.4% · FIP 4.18
2027PROJ	25	MLBMIN	1	1	2	4.93	4.93	16.0%	10.6%	0.0
2028PROJ44% MLB	26	MLBMIN	6	6	38	4.84	4.82	17.1%	10.2%	0.3
2029PROJ63% MLB	27	MLBMIN	8	8	49	4.81	4.82	17.4%	10.1%	0.3

Next 3 projected WAR 0.6Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2034Service0.0First FA2035

2027MiLB2028MiLB2029Pre-Arb$0.8M2030Pre-Arb$0.8M2031Pre-Arb$0.9M2032Arb-1$0.4M2033Arb-2$5M2034Ext$7M

Scouting grades · 20-80

Stuff40Control40Command40

Career WAR0.0 WAR median (P10 -0.6 / P90 2.0, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 91%

CompsCarlos Sano (age 25) · Tyler Uberstine (age 23) · Logan Martin (age 23)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 127119vR 111

ERA4.93

FIP4.93

K%16.0%

BB%10.6%

K-BB%5.4%

Proj IP82

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 82 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$2M ctrl surplus

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF4040

CTRL4040

CMD4040

K†4040

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2029

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2034

First FA Year 2035

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2029	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.3	$1M	+$0.4M
2030	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.3	$1.0M	+$0.3M
2031	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.3	$0.9M	+$0.3M
2032	Arb-1	$0.4M	+0.1	$0.3M	+$0.0M
2033	Arb-2	$5M	—	—	—
2034	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$3M		$2M	+$1M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2023	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	5	0	7	34	5	4	0	0%	1.5	14.7%	11.8%	2.9%	0.0%	3.68	3.35	—
2023	21	MIX RAW	2 levels	5	0	7	34	5	4	0	0%	1.5	14.7%	11.8%	2.9%	0.0%	3.68	3.37	—
2024	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	21	20	108	456	116	30	8	95%	5.1	19.2%	7.6%	11.6%	1.9%	3.67	3.49	—
2024	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	21	20	108	456	116	30	8	95%	5.1	19.2%	7.6%	11.6%	1.9%	3.67	3.49	—
2024	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	21	20	108	456	116	30	8	95%	5.1	25.4%	6.6%	18.9%	1.8%	3.67	2.75	—
2025	23	A+ MLE	Cedar Rapids Kernels	22	21	105	465	98	47	4	95%	4.8	16.2%	11.6%	4.6%	1.1%	4.87	3.82	—
2025	23	A+ MLE	Cedar Rapids Kernels	22	21	105	465	98	47	4	95%	4.8	16.2%	11.6%	4.6%	1.1%	4.87	3.82	—
2025	23	A+ RAW	Cedar Rapids Kernels	22	21	105	465	98	47	4	95%	4.8	21.1%	10.1%	11.0%	0.9%	4.87	3.07	—
2026	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	33	23	124	525	109	43	12	70%	3.7	17.1%	8.4%	8.7%	2.7%	4.29	4.18	—
2026	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	33	23	124	525	109	43	12	70%	3.7	17.1%	8.4%	8.7%	2.7%	4.29	4.18	—
2026	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	33	23	124	525	109	43	12	70%	3.7	20.8%	8.2%	12.6%	2.3%	4.29	3.64	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	25	MLB	MIN	1	1	2	8	1	1	0	100%	2.0	16.0%	10.6%	5.4%	2.7%	4.93	4.93	+0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	26	MLB MLE	MIN	14	14	87	366	62	37	10	100%	6.2	17.1%	10.2%	6.8%	2.7%	4.83	4.81	+0.6
2029	27	MLB MLE	MIN	13	13	77	325	57	33	9	100%	5.9	17.4%	10.1%	7.3%	2.8%	4.80	4.81	+0.5
2030	28	MLB MLE	MIN	12	12	71	300	53	30	9	100%	5.9	17.5%	10.2%	7.4%	2.9%	4.83	4.86	+0.4
2031	29	MLB MLE	MIN	11	11	66	277	48	29	8	100%	6.0	17.4%	10.3%	7.1%	3.0%	4.92	4.98	+0.3
2032	30	MLB MLE	MIN	10	10	59	250	43	27	8	100%	5.9	17.0%	10.6%	6.4%	3.2%	5.06	5.16	+0.2
2028	26	MLB CTX	MIN	6	6	38	160	27	16	4	100%	6.3	17.1%	10.2%	6.8%	2.7%	4.84	4.82	+0.3
2029	27	MLB CTX	MIN	8	8	49	207	36	21	6	100%	6.1	17.4%	10.1%	7.3%	2.8%	4.81	4.82	+0.3
2030	28	MLB CTX	MIN	9	9	54	228	40	23	7	100%	6.0	17.5%	10.2%	7.4%	2.9%	4.84	4.87	+0.3
2031	29	MLB CTX	MIN	9	9	53	224	39	23	7	100%	5.9	17.4%	10.3%	7.1%	3.0%	4.93	4.99	+0.3
2032	30	MLB CTX	MIN	8	8	51	215	37	23	7	100%	6.4	17.0%	10.6%	6.4%	3.2%	5.07	5.17	+0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		41	41	245	1033	179	106	30	100%	6.0	17.3%	10.3%	7.0%	2.9%	4.90	4.56	+2.4
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		33	33	200	844	146	87	25	100%	6.0	17.3%	10.3%	7.0%	2.9%	4.90	4.56	+1.9
Career	—	MLE		81	64	344	1480	258	137	28	79%	4.3	17.4%	9.3%	8.2%	1.9%	4.26	3.83	+2.0
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		47	37	200	860	150	80	16	79%	4.3	17.4%	9.3%	8.2%	1.9%	4.26	3.83	+1.1

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 AAWichita Wind Surge · 86 IPFIP 3.52 → 4.21 (+0.69)K% 21.2% → 17.2%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	21.25%	—	×0.810	17.21%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	7.65%	—	×1.100	8.41%
HR / BF /BF	2.27%	÷1.000	×1.200	2.72%

Factors used: pitcher AA level factors — K ×0.81, BB ×1.10, HR ×1.20. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 3.52 → 4.21, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2026 AAASt. Paul Saints · 37 IPFIP 3.89 → 4.13 (+0.24)K% 19.8% → 17.0%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	19.77%	—	×0.860	17.00%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	9.30%	—	×0.900	8.37%
HR / BF /BF	2.33%	÷1.000	×1.100	2.56%

Factors used: pitcher AAA level factors (Triple-A 2023+ robo-zone set: walks improve on promotion) — K ×0.86, BB ×0.90, HR ×1.10. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 3.89 → 4.13, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 A+Cedar Rapids Kernels · 105 IPFIP 3.07 → 3.82 (+0.74)K% 21.1% → 16.2%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	21.08%	—	×0.770	16.23%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	10.11%	—	×1.150	11.62%
HR / BF /BF	0.86%	÷0.962	×1.250	1.12%

Factors used: pitcher A+ level factors — K ×0.77, BB ×1.15, HR ×1.25. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 92).

Result: FIP 3.07 → 3.82, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 A+Cedar Rapids Kernels · 60 IPFIP 3.52 → 4.18 (+0.67)K% 23.6% → 18.2%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	23.62%	—	×0.770	18.19%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	7.09%	—	×1.150	8.15%
HR / BF /BF	2.76%	÷1.191	×1.250	2.89%

Result: FIP 3.52 → 4.18, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 AFort Myers Mighty Mussels · 48 IPFIP 1.78 → 2.62 (+0.84)K% 27.7% → 20.5%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	27.72%	—	×0.740	20.51%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	5.94%	—	×1.180	7.01%
HR / BF /BF	0.50%	÷0.962	×1.300	0.67%

Factors used: pitcher A level factors — K ×0.74, BB ×1.18, HR ×1.30. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 92).

Result: FIP 1.78 → 2.62, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 AFort Myers Mighty Mussels · 5 IPFIP 3.91 → 4.34 (+0.43)K% 7.7% → 5.7%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	7.69%	—	×0.740	5.69%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	11.54%	—	×1.180	13.62%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷0.976	×1.300	0.00%

Result: FIP 3.91 → 4.34, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Ty Langenberg (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.93	16.0%	10.6%	2.7%	—	4.83	17.3%	7.1%	235	-0.10	—	—	—
Carlos Sano R 2018 · 4.82 FIP	25	SP-	4.82	17.6%	11.2%	3.3%	.282	9.22	19.7%	7.1%	18	+4.40	4.82	105	87
Tyler Uberstine R 2022 · 4.19 FIP	23	SP-	4.19	19.5%	10.5%	2.6%	.302	4.27	22.8%	15.4%	121	+0.08	2.98	262	85
Logan Martin R 2024 · 3.95 FIP	23	SP-	3.95	16.9%	8.9%	2.1%	.278	4.58	17.6%	5.0%	140	+0.63	3.95	242	85
Alejandro Martinez R 2015 · 4.46 FIP	26	SP-	4.46	17.5%	10.9%	2.7%	.393	4.24	9.2%	3.9%	53	-0.22	4.24	166	84
Brooks Hall R 2015 · 4.12 FIP	25	SP-	4.12	14.3%	6.9%	2.5%	.291	4.00	14.0%	7.0%	153	-0.12	3.45	274	84
Nick Dean R 2024 · 3.86 FIP	23	SP-	3.86	17.5%	8.1%	2.2%	.275	3.47	21.7%	14.6%	111	-0.39	2.73	202	84
Justin Miller R 2002 · 5.01 FIP	24	SP-	5.01	14.5%	13.6%	2.6%	.280	5.41	12.5%	2.1%	82	+0.40	2.63	373	84
Derek True R 2024 · 4.90 FIP	23	SP-	4.90	18.5%	10.5%	3.7%	.333	4.95	17.6%	5.9%	73	+0.05	4.50	170	84
Jeremy Lee R 2024 · 4.17 FIP	22	SP-	4.17	16.8%	11.5%	1.9%	.318	5.21	11.2%	-0.5%	46	+1.04	4.17	125	84
Dylan Burns R 2022 · 4.21 FIP	25	SP	4.21	17.1%	10.8%	2.2%	.300	4.87	11.6%	-2.4%	41	+0.66	4.21	120	84
Luke Irvine R 2016 · 4.31 FIP	27	SP-	4.31	13.4%	9.8%	2.0%	.302	—	—	—	—	—	4.31	104	83
David Lebron R 2019 · 4.28 FIP	25	SP-	4.28	18.6%	14.2%	1.7%	.336	5.56	26.7%	12.0%	62	+1.28	4.28	144	83
Rorik Maltrud R 2024 · 3.91 FIP	24	SP-	3.91	20.4%	9.6%	2.4%	.300	4.40	18.6%	9.4%	193	+0.49	3.91	298	83
Kenten Egbert R 2024 · 4.26 FIP	23	SP-	4.26	19.6%	9.6%	2.9%	.257	4.34	10.8%	3.5%	133	+0.08	4.04	231	83
Jacob Meador R 2024 · 5.34 FIP	23	SP-	5.34	15.6%	14.0%	3.2%	.301	6.73	14.7%	-6.6%	50	+1.39	5.34	139	82
J.P. France R 2019 · 5.32 FIP	24	SP-	5.32	17.9%	13.9%	3.6%	.285	4.24	26.3%	15.2%	225	-1.08	4.04	577	82
Esmil Rogers R 2011 · 4.79 FIP	25	SP-	4.79	15.6%	10.4%	3.1%	.337	4.10	19.4%	12.0%	262	-0.69	2.86	616	81
Enrique Gonzalez R 2006 · 4.49 FIP	24	SP-	4.49	14.3%	7.4%	3.0%	.287	—	—	—	—	—	4.49	132	81
Frank Batista R 2015 · 4.29 FIP	26	SP-	4.29	12.1%	8.2%	2.1%	.280	—	—	—	—	—	4.29	118	81
Ryan Jensen R 2001 · 5.03 FIP	25	SP-	5.03	13.5%	13.0%	2.6%	.285	4.82	13.4%	5.2%	185	-0.21	4.35	253	81

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,234 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 480 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	2.2	74	17.0%	10.3%	1.10	4.89
Jim Brower ('07)	2.9	72	15.7%	10.1%	1.10	4.67
Paul Mirabella ('78-'90, -0 WAR*)	2.5	71	17.2%*	10.7%*	0.95*	4.64*
Manny Aybar ('05)	2.0	65	15.6%	9.8%	1.13	5.11
Vladimir Nunez ('09)	2.2	74	17.0%	10.3%	1.12	4.83
Fred Scherman ('69-'76, 1 WAR*)	2.7	77	18.0%*	10.0%*	1.17*	4.29*
Jim Winn ('83-'88, -1 WAR*)	1.5	77	15.1%*	11.0%*	1.09*	4.96*