Grades · Contract
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 20 | MIX | 2 levels | 5 | 2 | 9 | 41 | 12 | 4 | 0 | 40% | 1.7 | 29.3% | 9.8% | 19.5% | 0.0% | 8.31 | 1.86 | — |
| 2022 | 20 | MIX | 2 levels | 5 | 2 | 9 | 41 | 12 | 4 | 0 | 40% | 1.7 | 29.3% | 9.8% | 19.5% | 0.0% | 8.31 | 1.72 | — |
| 2023 | 21 | MIX | 2 levels | 19 | 17 | 87 | 366 | 88 | 22 | 5 | 89% | 4.6 | 18.2% | 7.0% | 11.2% | 1.7% | 3.95 | 3.37 | — |
| 2023 | 21 | MIX | 2 levels | 19 | 17 | 87 | 366 | 88 | 22 | 5 | 89% | 4.6 | 24.0% | 6.0% | 18.0% | 1.4% | 3.95 | 2.58 | — |
| 2025 | 23 | MIX | 2 levels | 15 | 15 | 60 | 267 | 79 | 43 | 1 | 100% | 4.0 | 21.6% | 20.1% | 1.6% | 0.8% | 3.28 | 4.27 | — |
| 2025 | 23 | MIX | 2 levels | 15 | 15 | 60 | 267 | 79 | 43 | 1 | 100% | 4.0 | 29.6% | 16.1% | 13.5% | 0.4% | 3.28 | 2.83 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 24 | AA | Columbus Clingstones | 17 | 17 | 79 | 335 | 110 | 34 | 8 | 100% | 4.6 | 25.7% | 11.5% | 14.1% | 3.0% | 4.44 | 4.02 | +0.9 |
| ROS | 24 | MLB | ATL | 12 | 12 | 65 | 274 | 58 | 47 | 7 | 100% | 5.4 | 21.1% | 17.0% | 4.1% | 2.6% | 5.28 | 5.28 | -0.5 |
| ROS | 24 | MLB | ATL | — | — | 0 | — | — | — | — | — | — | 21.1% | 17.0% | 4.1% | 2.6% | 5.28 | 5.28 | — |
| 2026 TOT | 24 | MLB | ATL | — | — | 144 | 609 | 168 | 81 | 15 | — | — | 27.6% | 13.2% | 14.3% | 2.5% | 4.82 | 4.59 | +1.4 |
| 2026 FULL | 24 | MLB | ATL | — | — | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | 21.2% | 17.0% | 4.1% | 2.6% | 5.28 | 4.90 | -0.0 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 25 | MLB | ATL | 12 | 12 | 68 | 287 | 62 | 43 | 8 | 100% | 5.7 | 21.8% | 15.0% | 6.8% | 2.6% | 5.06 | 4.98 | -0.2 |
| 2028 | 26 | MLB | ATL | 11 | 11 | 68 | 287 | 63 | 42 | 8 | 100% | 6.2 | 22.1% | 14.5% | 7.6% | 2.7% | 4.95 | 4.91 | -0.2 |
| 2029 | 27 | MLB | ATL | 11 | 11 | 67 | 283 | 63 | 41 | 8 | 100% | 6.1 | 22.1% | 14.3% | 7.8% | 2.7% | 4.92 | 4.92 | -0.2 |
| 2030 | 28 | MLB | ATL | 11 | 11 | 65 | 274 | 60 | 39 | 8 | 100% | 5.9 | 22.0% | 14.3% | 7.7% | 2.8% | 4.96 | 4.99 | -0.3 |
| 2027 | 25 | MLB | ATL | 5 | 5 | 29 | 122 | 27 | 18 | 3 | 100% | 5.8 | 21.8% | 15.0% | 6.8% | 2.6% | 5.06 | 4.98 | -0.1 |
| 2028 | 26 | MLB | ATL | 8 | 8 | 45 | 190 | 42 | 28 | 5 | 100% | 5.6 | 22.1% | 14.5% | 7.6% | 2.7% | 4.95 | 4.91 | -0.2 |
| 2029 | 27 | MLB | ATL | 9 | 9 | 52 | 220 | 49 | 31 | 6 | 100% | 5.8 | 22.1% | 14.3% | 7.8% | 2.7% | 4.92 | 4.92 | -0.2 |
| 2030 | 28 | MLB | ATL | 9 | 9 | 55 | 232 | 51 | 33 | 7 | 100% | 6.1 | 22.0% | 14.3% | 7.7% | 2.8% | 4.96 | 4.99 | -0.3 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 30 | 30 | 181 | 765 | 168 | 111 | 21 | 100% | 6.0 | 22.0% | 14.5% | 7.5% | 2.7% | 4.96 | 4.57 | +1.8 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 33 | 33 | 200 | 844 | 185 | 122 | 23 | 100% | 6.0 | 22.0% | 14.5% | 7.5% | 2.7% | 4.96 | 4.57 | +1.9 | ||
| Career | — | 56 | 51 | 235 | 1009 | 222 | 122 | 18 | 91% | 4.2 | 22.0% | 12.1% | 10.0% | 1.8% | 4.10 | 3.76 | +4.5 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 48 | 43 | 200 | 860 | 189 | 104 | 16 | 91% | 4.2 | 22.0% | 12.1% | 10.0% | 1.8% | 4.10 | 3.76 | +3.8 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Cedric De Grandpre (OGILVIE) | — | — | 5.28 | 21.1% | 17.0% | 2.6% | — | 4.94 | 22.0% | 7.4% | 203 | -0.34 | — | — | — |
| Aaron Hernandez R 2026 · 4.45 FIP | 24 | SP | 4.45 | 20.9% | 16.4% | 1.9% | .329 | 5.26 | 18.8% | 5.1% | 59 | +0.81 | 4.45 | 194 | 86 |
| Luis Quiñones R 2026 · 4.89 FIP | 24 | SP | 4.89 | 26.6% | 21.5% | 2.4% | .290 | 4.86 | 22.9% | 8.8% | 231 | -0.03 | 3.93 | 323 | 85 |
| David Lebron R 2027 · 4.18 FIP | 25 | SP- | 4.18 | 18.6% | 14.2% | 1.6% | .336 | 5.07 | 26.7% | 12.0% | 62 | +0.89 | 4.18 | 144 | 81 |
| Hayden Merda R 2025 · 5.06 FIP | 23 | SP | 5.06 | 16.1% | 15.3% | 2.5% | .325 | 4.42 | 25.8% | 12.5% | 87 | -0.64 | 3.50 | 182 | 81 |
| Zach Fruit R 2026 · 4.26 FIP | 24 | SP | 4.26 | 19.3% | 14.1% | 1.8% | .258 | 4.83 | 15.4% | -0.2% | 44 | +0.57 | 4.26 | 151 | 81 |
| Winyer Chourio R 2024 · 4.50 FIP | 22 | SP | 4.50 | 23.5% | 16.3% | 2.4% | .307 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.30 | 156 | 81 |
| M.D. Johnson R 2026 · 5.30 FIP | 24 | SP | 5.30 | 19.1% | 17.3% | 2.9% | .201 | 4.67 | 17.9% | 7.9% | 293 | -0.63 | 3.50 | 395 | 80 |
| Phillippe Aumont R 2028 · 4.64 FIP | 26 | SP- | 4.64 | 19.6% | 18.2% | 1.6% | .262 | 5.31 | 22.3% | 10.4% | 64 | +0.67 | 4.64 | 147 | 80 |
| Ryan Jensen R 2026 · 4.86 FIP | 24 | SP | 4.86 | 18.8% | 16.6% | 2.3% | .252 | 4.50 | 24.2% | 4.8% | 150 | -0.36 | 4.20 | 311 | 78 |
| David Griffin R 2027 · 4.52 FIP | 25 | SP | 4.52 | 19.2% | 11.9% | 2.8% | .279 | 5.47 | 15.6% | 5.5% | 168 | +0.95 | 4.52 | 239 | 78 |
| Ike Buxton R 2026 · 4.52 FIP | 24 | SP | 4.52 | 15.4% | 13.1% | 1.9% | .341 | 4.95 | 13.8% | -5.5% | 46 | +0.43 | 4.52 | 196 | 78 |
| J.P. France R 2026 · 5.38 FIP | 24 | SP- | 5.38 | 17.9% | 13.9% | 3.7% | .285 | 4.39 | 26.3% | 15.2% | 225 | -0.99 | 4.11 | 563 | 77 |
| J.P. Massey R 2026 · 4.62 FIP | 24 | SP | 4.62 | 16.1% | 14.2% | 2.0% | .283 | 5.64 | 15.5% | -1.3% | 46 | +1.02 | 4.62 | 195 | 77 |
| Jacob Odle R 2024 · 4.96 FIP | 22 | SP | 4.96 | 25.2% | 17.0% | 3.3% | .290 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.44 | 104 | 76 |
| Carlson Reed R 2025 · 5.27 FIP | 23 | SP- | 5.27 | 16.9% | 15.4% | 3.0% | .320 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.69 | 237 | 76 |
| Chris Kachmar R 2026 · 4.39 FIP | 24 | SP | 4.39 | 16.1% | 11.4% | 2.2% | .309 | 4.74 | 18.4% | 9.4% | 172 | +0.35 | 4.39 | 353 | 76 |
| Bryce Cunningham R 2025 · 5.93 FIP | 23 | SP- | 5.93 | 17.4% | 15.3% | 4.3% | .228 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.06 | 101 | 76 |
| Anderson Brito R 2024 · 4.73 FIP | 22 | SP | 4.73 | 22.2% | 16.5% | 2.6% | .325 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.24 | 135 | 75 |
| Jaron DeBerry R 2025 · 5.03 FIP | 23 | SP | 5.03 | 21.2% | 13.0% | 3.8% | .249 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.01 | 175 | 75 |
| Cameron Foster R 2026 · 4.24 FIP | 24 | SP | 4.24 | 18.9% | 10.3% | 2.6% | .329 | 4.33 | 21.3% | 10.9% | 132 | +0.09 | 2.63 | 213 | 75 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 5 | 67 | 21.8% | 15.0% | 1.04 | 5.03 |
| Amir Garrett ('23) | 6 | 51 | 25.8% | 13.4% | 1.50 | 5.10 |
| Touki Toussaint ('24) | 7 | 40 | 23.1% | 14.1% | 1.25 | 5.39 |
| Daniel Bard ('23) | 4 | 50 | 25.1% | 13.5% | 0.81 | 3.82 |
| Fernando Rodney ('19) | 5 | 59 | 24.6% | 11.8% | 0.88 | 4.21 |
| Miguel Castro ('23) | 7 | 59 | 20.8% | 12.0% | 1.04 | 3.99 |
| Greg Holland ('21) | 6 | 45 | 25.4% | 12.3% | 0.87 | 4.03 |