Tyler Soderstrom
LF Athletics| Year | Age | Lvl / Team | PA | AVG/OBP/SLG | HR | SB | wRC+ | WAR | MLE AVG/OBP/SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 22 | AAAOAK | 143 | .279/.385/.607 | 10 | 0 | 117 | — | .228/.315/.457 |
| 2024 | 22 | MLBOakland Athle… | 213 | .233/.316/.429 | 9 | 0 | 112 | -0.3 | |
| 2025 | 23 | MLBOAK | 624 | .276/.347/.474 | 25 | 8 | 125 | 2.3 | |
| 2026 | 24 | MLBOAK | 453 | .245/.338/.472 | 19 | 2 | 118 | 1.4 | |
| 2027PROJ | 25 | MLBOAK | 212 | .264/.342/.478 | 9 | 2 | 124 | 1.0 | |
| 2028PROJ92% MLB | 26 | MLBOAK | 512 | .263/.342/.478 | 21 | 5 | 124 | 2.4 | |
| 2029PROJ92% MLB | 27 | MLBOAK | 496 | .262/.341/.474 | 20 | 4 | 123 | 2.3 |
Tools · Splits · ContractCON 55 / POW 60
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built
All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | MLB% | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | SO | HBP | SB | CS | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | ISO | BABIP | K% | BB% | wOBA | wRC+ | BAT | RUN | FLD | POS | REP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2021 | 19 | A | Stockton Ports | — | 254 | 222 | 68 | 20 | 1 | 12 | 27 | 61 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 306 | 391 | 568 | 959 | 261 | 373 | 24 | 11 | 416 | 110 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 20 | AAA | Las Vegas Aviators | — | 38 | 37 | 11 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 13 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 297 | 316 | 405 | 721 | 108 | 435 | 34 | 3 | 321 | 59 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 20 | AA | Midland RockHounds | — | 147 | 133 | 37 | 1 | 2 | 8 | 10 | 33 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 278 | 333 | 496 | 830 | 218 | 305 | 22 | 7 | 356 | 113 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 20 | A+ | Lansing Lugnuts | — | 371 | 335 | 87 | 19 | 3 | 20 | 29 | 99 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 260 | 326 | 513 | 840 | 254 | 306 | 27 | 8 | 363 | 86 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 21 | MLB | Oakland Athletics | — | 138 | 125 | 20 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 11 | 43 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 160 | 234 | 240 | 474 | 80 | 212 | 31 | 8 | 220 | 38 | -10 | +0 | -1 | +8 | +3 | -0.0 |
| 2023 | 21 | AAA | Las Vegas Aviators | — | 335 | 306 | 77 | 17 | 2 | 21 | 25 | 88 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 252 | 310 | 526 | 836 | 275 | 280 | 26 | 7 | 359 | 78 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 22 | MLB | Oakland Athletics | — | 213 | 189 | 44 | 10 | 0 | 9 | 20 | 53 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 233 | 316 | 429 | 745 | 196 | 273 | 25 | 9 | 330 | 112 | +3 | +0 | -4 | -6 | +5 | -0.3 |
| 2024 | 22 | AAA | Las Vegas Aviators | — | 143 | 122 | 34 | 8 | 1 | 10 | 16 | 35 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 279 | 385 | 607 | 991 | 328 | 312 | 24 | 11 | 427 | 117 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 23 | MLB | Athletics | — | 624 | 561 | 155 | 34 | 1 | 25 | 55 | 141 | 6 | 8 | 3 | 276 | 347 | 474 | 821 | 198 | 327 | 23 | 9 | 362 | 125 | +19 | +0 | -4 | -7 | +14 | 2.3 |
| 2026 | 24 | MLB | Athletics | — | 453 | 396 | 97 | 27 | 3 | 19 | 53 | 91 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 245 | 338 | 472 | 811 | 227 | 272 | 20 | 12 | 357 | 118 | +10 | +0 | -2 | -5 | +10 | 1.4 |
| ▸ Career Totals (raw MLB only — historical actual) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| MLB Career | — | — | 1428 | 1271 | 316 | 72 | 4 | 56 | 139 | 328 | 13 | 10 | 4 | 249 | 329 | 444 | 773 | 195 | 291 | 23 | 10 | 342 | 118 | +30 | +0 | -11 | -9 | +31 | 4.2 | ||
| ▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2021 | 19 | A MLE | Stockton Ports | — | 254 | 231 | 60 | 17 | 1 | 8 | 18 | 81 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 260 | 324 | 446 | 770 | 186 | 360 | 32 | 7 | 331 | 110 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 20 | AAA MLE | Las Vegas Aviators | — | 38 | 37 | 10 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 15 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 270 | 289 | 378 | 668 | 108 | 413 | 39 | 3 | 256 | 59 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 20 | AA MLE | Midland RockHounds | — | 147 | 136 | 35 | 1 | 2 | 8 | 7 | 40 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 257 | 299 | 471 | 769 | 213 | 290 | 27 | 5 | 335 | 113 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 20 | A+ MLE | Lansing Lugnuts | — | 371 | 344 | 75 | 16 | 2 | 16 | 20 | 124 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 218 | 269 | 416 | 685 | 198 | 279 | 33 | 5 | 295 | 86 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 21 | MLB MLE | Oakland Athletics | — | 138 | 125 | 20 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 11 | 43 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 160 | 234 | 240 | 474 | 80 | 212 | 31 | 8 | 225 | 38 | -10 | +0 | -1 | +8 | +3 | -0.0 |
| 2023 | 21 | AAA MLE | Las Vegas Aviators | — | 335 | 315 | 66 | 13 | 2 | 15 | 16 | 104 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 210 | 250 | 406 | 656 | 197 | 253 | 31 | 5 | 283 | 78 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 22 | MLB MLE | Oakland Athletics | — | 213 | 190 | 45 | 10 | 0 | 10 | 19 | 53 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 237 | 316 | 447 | 763 | 211 | 273 | 25 | 9 | 334 | 112 | +3 | +0 | -4 | -6 | +5 | -0.3 |
| 2024 | 22 | AAA MLE | Las Vegas Aviators | — | 143 | 127 | 29 | 6 | 1 | 7 | 11 | 41 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 228 | 315 | 457 | 771 | 228 | 284 | 29 | 8 | 341 | 117 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 23 | MLB MLE | Athletics | — | 624 | 563 | 151 | 30 | 1 | 26 | 53 | 141 | 6 | 8 | 3 | 268 | 338 | 464 | 801 | 195 | 327 | 23 | 8 | 353 | 125 | +19 | +0 | -4 | -7 | +14 | 2.3 |
| 2026 | 24 | MLB MLE | Athletics | — | 453 | 400 | 94 | 24 | 3 | 19 | 49 | 91 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 235 | 323 | 453 | 776 | 218 | 272 | 20 | 11 | 343 | 118 | +10 | +0 | -2 | -5 | +10 | 1.4 |
| 2021 | 19 | A MLE | Stockton Ports | — | 254 | 231 | 60 | 17 | 1 | 8 | 18 | 81 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 260 | 324 | 446 | 770 | 186 | 364 | 32 | 7 | 331 | 110 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 19 | A RAW | Stockton Ports | — | 254 | 222 | 68 | 20 | 1 | 12 | 27 | 61 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 306 | 391 | 568 | 959 | 261 | 373 | 24 | 11 | 416 | 110 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 20 | A+ MLE | 3 teams | — | 556 | 517 | 120 | 17 | 5 | 25 | 28 | 180 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 232 | 278 | 429 | 708 | 197 | 299 | 32 | 5 | 303 | 91 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 20 | A+ RAW | 3 teams | — | 556 | 505 | 135 | 21 | 5 | 29 | 40 | 145 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 267 | 327 | 501 | 828 | 234 | 315 | 26 | 7 | 359 | 91 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 21 | AAA MLE | 2 teams | — | 473 | 440 | 86 | 14 | 2 | 18 | 27 | 147 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 195 | 245 | 359 | 604 | 164 | 244 | 31 | 6 | 266 | 66 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 21 | AAA RAW | 2 teams | — | 473 | 431 | 97 | 18 | 2 | 24 | 36 | 131 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 225 | 288 | 443 | 731 | 218 | 261 | 28 | 8 | 319 | 66 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 22 | MLB MLE | 2 teams | — | 356 | 317 | 74 | 16 | 1 | 17 | 30 | 94 | 8 | 0 | 1 | 233 | 315 | 451 | 767 | 218 | 275 | 26 | 8 | 337 | 114 | +6 | -0 | -4 | -6 | +8 | 0.3 |
| 2024 | 22 | MLB RAW | 2 teams | — | 356 | 311 | 78 | 18 | 1 | 19 | 36 | 88 | 8 | 0 | 1 | 251 | 344 | 498 | 842 | 248 | 288 | 25 | 10 | 369 | 114 | +6 | -0 | -4 | -6 | +8 | 0.3 |
| 2025 | 23 | MLB MLE | Athletics | — | 624 | 563 | 151 | 30 | 1 | 26 | 53 | 141 | 6 | 8 | 3 | 268 | 338 | 464 | 801 | 195 | 314 | 23 | 8 | 353 | 125 | +19 | +0 | -4 | -7 | +14 | 2.3 |
| 2025 | 23 | MLB RAW | Athletics | — | 624 | 561 | 155 | 34 | 1 | 25 | 55 | 141 | 6 | 8 | 3 | 276 | 347 | 474 | 821 | 198 | 327 | 23 | 9 | 362 | 125 | +19 | +0 | -4 | -7 | +14 | 2.3 |
| 2026 | 24 | MLB MLE | Athletics | — | 453 | 400 | 94 | 24 | 3 | 19 | 49 | 91 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 235 | 323 | 453 | 776 | 218 | 258 | 20 | 11 | 343 | 118 | +10 | +0 | -2 | -5 | +10 | 1.4 |
| 2026 | 24 | MLB RAW | Athletics | — | 453 | 396 | 97 | 27 | 3 | 19 | 53 | 91 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 245 | 338 | 472 | 811 | 227 | 272 | 20 | 12 | 357 | 118 | +10 | +0 | -2 | -5 | +10 | 1.4 |
| 2021 | 19 | A MLE | Stockton Ports | — | 254 | 230 | 60 | 17 | 1 | 8 | 18 | 81 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 261 | 324 | 448 | 772 | 187 | 360 | 32 | 7 | 331 | 110 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 20 | A+ MLE | 3 teams | — | 556 | 518 | 120 | 17 | 5 | 25 | 28 | 180 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 232 | 278 | 429 | 707 | 197 | 291 | 32 | 5 | 303 | 91 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 21 | AAA MLE | 2 teams | — | 473 | 441 | 86 | 14 | 2 | 18 | 27 | 147 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 195 | 245 | 358 | 603 | 163 | 241 | 31 | 6 | 266 | 66 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 22 | MLB MLE | 2 teams | — | 356 | 315 | 74 | 16 | 1 | 17 | 30 | 94 | 8 | 0 | 1 | 235 | 315 | 454 | 769 | 219 | 278 | 26 | 8 | 337 | 114 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 23 | MLB MLE | Athletics | — | 624 | 560 | 151 | 30 | 1 | 26 | 53 | 141 | 6 | 8 | 3 | 270 | 338 | 466 | 804 | 196 | 327 | 23 | 8 | 353 | 125 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 24 | MLB MLE | Athletics | — | 453 | 398 | 94 | 24 | 3 | 19 | 49 | 91 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 236 | 323 | 455 | 778 | 219 | 272 | 20 | 11 | 343 | 118 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2024 | 22 | MLB MLE | 2 teams | — | 356 | 315 | 74 | 16 | 1 | 17 | 30 | 94 | 8 | 0 | 1 | 235 | 315 | 454 | 769 | 219 | 278 | 26 | 8 | 337 | 114 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 23 | MLB MLE | Athletics | — | 624 | 560 | 151 | 30 | 1 | 26 | 53 | 141 | 6 | 8 | 3 | 270 | 338 | 466 | 804 | 196 | 327 | 23 | 8 | 353 | 125 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 24 | MLB MLE | Athletics | — | 453 | 398 | 94 | 24 | 3 | 19 | 49 | 91 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 236 | 323 | 455 | 778 | 219 | 272 | 20 | 11 | 343 | 118 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ 2027 season | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 25 | MLB MLE | OAK | 100% | 465 | 413 | 106 | 24 | 2 | 20 | 45 | 101 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 256 | 336 | 467 | 802 | 210 | 291 | 22 | 10 | 352 | 124 | +13 | +0 | +3 | -5 | +10 | 1.1 |
| ▸ 2027 — real world (MLB) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 25 | MLB CTX | OAK | 100% | 212 | 188 | 50 | 12 | 1 | 9 | 20 | 46 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 264 | 342 | 478 | 820 | 214 | 302 | 22 | 9 | 359 | 124 | +6 | +0 | +1 | -2 | +5 | 1.0 |
| ▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2028 | 26 | MLB MLE | OAK | 92% | 556 | 492 | 126 | 28 | 2 | 24 | 54 | 120 | 5 | 5 | 1 | 256 | 335 | 466 | 802 | 210 | 290 | 22 | 10 | 352 | 124 | +16 | +1 | +3 | -6 | +12 | 2.6 |
| 2029 | 27 | MLB MLE | OAK | 92% | 539 | 477 | 122 | 27 | 2 | 23 | 52 | 117 | 5 | 4 | 1 | 255 | 334 | 463 | 798 | 209 | 289 | 22 | 10 | 350 | 123 | +15 | +0 | +3 | -6 | +12 | 2.5 |
| 2030 | 28 | MLB MLE | OAK | 92% | 525 | 465 | 118 | 26 | 2 | 22 | 51 | 116 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 253 | 332 | 458 | 790 | 205 | 288 | 22 | 10 | 347 | 121 | +13 | +0 | +2 | -6 | +11 | 2.2 |
| 2031 | 29 | MLB MLE | OAK | 92% | 511 | 453 | 113 | 25 | 2 | 21 | 49 | 114 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 250 | 329 | 451 | 780 | 201 | 286 | 22 | 10 | 343 | 118 | +11 | -0 | +2 | -5 | +11 | 1.8 |
| 2032 | 30 | MLB MLE | OAK | 92% | 496 | 442 | 108 | 24 | 1 | 20 | 47 | 112 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 246 | 325 | 442 | 766 | 196 | 283 | 23 | 9 | 338 | 115 | +9 | -0 | +1 | -5 | +11 | 1.5 |
| 2033 | 31 | MLB MLE | OAK | 92% | 483 | 430 | 104 | 23 | 1 | 19 | 46 | 111 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 241 | 319 | 430 | 749 | 189 | 279 | 23 | 10 | 331 | 110 | +6 | +0 | -0 | -5 | +10 | 1.1 |
| 2034 | 32 | MLB MLE | OAK | 92% | 470 | 420 | 97 | 21 | 1 | 17 | 44 | 110 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 234 | 311 | 414 | 726 | 181 | 273 | 23 | 9 | 321 | 104 | +2 | +0 | -1 | -5 | +10 | 0.7 |
| 2035 | 33 | MLB MLE | OAK | 92% | 380 | 340 | 76 | 16 | 1 | 13 | 35 | 91 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 225 | 302 | 395 | 697 | 170 | 265 | 24 | 9 | 310 | 96 | -2 | +0 | -2 | -4 | +8 | 0.0 |
| 2028 | 26 | MLB CTX | OAK | 92% | 512 | 452 | 119 | 29 | 2 | 21 | 50 | 111 | 5 | 5 | 1 | 263 | 342 | 478 | 820 | 214 | 302 | 22 | 10 | 359 | 124 | +15 | +1 | +3 | -5 | +11 | 2.4 |
| 2029 | 27 | MLB CTX | OAK | 92% | 496 | 441 | 115 | 28 | 2 | 20 | 48 | 108 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 262 | 341 | 474 | 815 | 212 | 301 | 22 | 10 | 357 | 123 | +14 | +0 | +3 | -5 | +11 | 2.3 |
| 2030 | 28 | MLB CTX | OAK | 92% | 483 | 429 | 112 | 27 | 2 | 20 | 47 | 106 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 260 | 339 | 469 | 808 | 209 | 299 | 22 | 10 | 354 | 121 | +12 | +0 | +2 | -5 | +10 | 2.0 |
| 2031 | 29 | MLB CTX | OAK | 92% | 470 | 418 | 108 | 26 | 2 | 19 | 45 | 105 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 257 | 335 | 462 | 797 | 205 | 297 | 22 | 10 | 350 | 118 | +10 | -0 | +1 | -5 | +10 | 1.7 |
| 2032 | 30 | MLB CTX | OAK | 92% | 456 | 405 | 102 | 25 | 1 | 18 | 44 | 103 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 253 | 331 | 453 | 783 | 200 | 294 | 23 | 10 | 344 | 115 | +8 | -0 | +1 | -5 | +10 | 1.4 |
| 2033 | 31 | MLB CTX | OAK | 92% | 444 | 396 | 98 | 24 | 1 | 17 | 42 | 102 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 247 | 325 | 440 | 765 | 193 | 290 | 23 | 9 | 337 | 110 | +5 | +0 | -0 | -5 | +10 | 1.0 |
| 2034 | 32 | MLB CTX | OAK | 92% | 432 | 386 | 93 | 22 | 1 | 16 | 40 | 101 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 240 | 317 | 424 | 741 | 184 | 283 | 23 | 9 | 328 | 104 | +2 | +0 | -1 | -5 | +9 | 0.6 |
| 2035 | 33 | MLB CTX | OAK | 92% | 350 | 313 | 73 | 17 | 1 | 12 | 32 | 84 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 231 | 307 | 404 | 711 | 173 | 275 | 24 | 9 | 316 | 96 | -2 | +0 | -2 | -4 | +8 | 0.0 |
| ▸ Career Totals | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | A+C | — | 5071 | 4511 | 1136 | 270 | 16 | 199 | 487 | 1148 | 42 | 26 | 9 | 252 | 330 | 451 | 781 | 199 | 294 | 23 | 10 | 344 | 111 | +94 | +2 | -3 | -48 | +110 | 15.6 | |
| / 162G | — | A+C | — | 650 | 578 | 146 | 35 | 2 | 26 | 62 | 147 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 253 | 330 | 455 | 785 | 202 | 294 | 23 | 10 | 344 | 111 | +12 | +0 | -0 | -6 | +14 | 2.0 | |
| Career | — | MLE | — | 6888 | 6175 | 1498 | 319 | 26 | 281 | 603 | 1671 | 61 | 32 | 13 | 243 | 316 | 439 | 755 | 197 | 286 | 24 | 9 | 332 | 111 | +105 | +2 | -2 | -54 | +121 | 17.6 | |
| / 162G | — | MLE | — | 650 | 583 | 141 | 30 | 2 | 27 | 57 | 158 | 6 | 3 | 1 | 242 | 316 | 439 | 755 | 197 | 284 | 24 | 9 | 332 | 111 | +12 | +0 | -0 | -6 | +14 | 2.0 | |
How the minor-league lines were translated
One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.
2024 AAALas Vegas Aviators · 143 PAwOBA .414 → .341 (−73)K% 24.5% → 28.7%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 24.48% | ÷1.022 | ×1.200 | — | — | 28.74% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 10.49% | ÷0.952 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.050 | 7.98% |
| HBP% /PA | 3.50% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×1.050 | 3.45% |
| Singles /BIP | 17.24% | ÷0.974 | ×0.930 | ×1.012 | ×1.050 | 17.48% |
| Doubles /BIP | 9.20% | ÷1.088 | ×0.830 | ×1.012 | ×1.050 | 7.45% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.15% | ÷1.150 | ×0.970 | ×1.012 | ×1.050 | 1.03% |
| Home runs /BIP | 11.49% | ÷1.001 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.050 | 8.44% |
Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 100, 1B 95, 2B 118, 3B 130, K 104, BB 90 — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 27.2 → +5.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (4.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.012.
Result: wOBA .414 → .341; ISO .328 → .244; BABIP .312 → .284. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2023 AAALas Vegas Aviators · 335 PAwOBA .351 → .283 (−69)K% 26.3% → 31.0%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 26.27% | ÷1.017 | ×1.200 | — | — | 30.98% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 7.16% | ÷1.055 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.050 | 4.92% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.30% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×1.050 | 0.29% |
| Singles /BIP | 16.97% | ÷0.993 | ×0.930 | ×1.014 | ×1.050 | 16.93% |
| Doubles /BIP | 7.80% | ÷1.124 | ×0.830 | ×1.014 | ×1.050 | 6.13% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.92% | ÷1.133 | ×0.970 | ×1.014 | ×1.050 | 0.84% |
| Home runs /BIP | 9.63% | ÷0.996 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.050 | 7.11% |
Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 99, 1B 99, 2B 125, 3B 127, K 103, BB 111 — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 27.2 → +5.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (5.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.014.
Result: wOBA .351 → .283; ISO .275 → .204; BABIP .280 → .253. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2022 A+Lansing Lugnuts · 371 PAwOBA .355 → .295 (−60)K% 26.7% → 33.5%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 26.68% | ÷1.011 | ×1.270 | — | — | 33.54% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 7.55% | ÷1.020 | ×0.710 | — | ×1.027 | 5.40% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.08% | — | ×0.790 | — | ×1.027 | 0.87% |
| Singles /BIP | 19.07% | ÷0.996 | ×0.920 | ×1.004 | ×1.027 | 18.17% |
| Doubles /BIP | 8.05% | ÷0.967 | ×0.810 | ×1.004 | ×1.027 | 6.96% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.27% | ÷1.000 | ×0.850 | ×1.004 | ×1.027 | 1.11% |
| Home runs /BIP | 8.47% | ÷0.944 | ×0.800 | — | ×1.027 | 7.37% |
Factors used: league row Midwest League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 89, 1B 99, 2B 93, 3B 100, K 102, BB 104 — applied at half strength. Age: age 21 vs a level average of 22.8 → +2.7% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.004.
Result: wOBA .355 → .295; ISO .254 → .209; BABIP .306 → .279. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2022 AAMidland RockHounds · 147 PAwOBA .351 → .335 (−17)K% 22.4% → 27.5%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 22.45% | ÷0.995 | ×1.220 | — | — | 27.51% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 6.12% | ÷0.968 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.050 | 4.65% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.68% | — | ×0.870 | — | ×1.050 | 0.62% |
| Singles /BIP | 26.00% | ÷1.067 | ×0.920 | ×1.035 | ×1.050 | 24.36% |
| Doubles /BIP | 1.00% | ÷1.007 | ×0.840 | ×1.035 | ×1.050 | 0.91% |
| Triples /BIP | 2.00% | ÷0.931 | ×0.940 | ×1.035 | ×1.050 | 2.20% |
| Home runs /BIP | 8.00% | ÷0.793 | ×0.800 | — | ×1.050 | 8.48% |
Factors used: league row TL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 59, 1B 113, 2B 101, 3B 86, K 99, BB 94 — applied at half strength. Age: age 21 vs a level average of 24.8 → +5.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.035.
Result: wOBA .351 → .335; ISO .218 → .228; BABIP .305 → .290. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2022 AAALas Vegas Aviators · 38 PAwOBA .312 → .256 (−56)K% 34.2% → 40.7%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 34.21% | ÷1.009 | ×1.200 | — | — | 40.68% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 2.63% | ÷0.992 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.050 | 1.92% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×1.050 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 37.50% | ÷0.995 | ×0.930 | — | ×1.050 | 36.79% |
| Doubles /BIP | 4.17% | ÷1.088 | ×0.830 | — | ×1.050 | 3.34% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.900 | ×0.970 | — | ×1.050 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 4.17% | ÷1.075 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.050 | 2.85% |
Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 115, 1B 99, 2B 118, 3B 80, K 102, BB 98 — applied at half strength. Age: age 21 vs a level average of 27.2 → +5.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (6.2 yr younger than average).
Result: wOBA .312 → .256; ISO .108 → .070; BABIP .435 → .413. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2021 AStockton Ports · 254 PAwOBA .405 → .331 (−74)K% 24.0% → 32.0%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 24.02% | ÷1.020 | ×1.360 | — | — | 32.01% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 10.24% | ÷1.028 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.030 | 7.08% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.57% | — | ×0.780 | — | ×1.030 | 1.27% |
| Singles /BIP | 21.74% | ÷0.971 | ×0.920 | ×1.050 | ×1.030 | 22.27% |
| Doubles /BIP | 12.42% | ÷0.981 | ×0.830 | ×1.050 | ×1.030 | 11.37% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.62% | ÷0.902 | ×0.910 | ×1.050 | ×1.030 | 0.68% |
| Home runs /BIP | 7.45% | ÷1.165 | ×0.800 | — | ×1.030 | 5.27% |
Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 133, 1B 94, 2B 96, 3B 80, K 104, BB 106 — applied at half strength. Age: age 20 vs a level average of 22.0 → +3.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.0 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.050.
Result: wOBA .405 → .331; ISO .261 → .195; BABIP .373 → .360. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).