Triston Casas
1B Boston Red Sox| Year | Age | Lvl / Team | PA | AVG/OBP/SLG | HR | SB | wRC+ | WAR | MLE AVG/OBP/SLG | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 23 | MLBBOS | 502 | .263/.368/.490 | 24 | 0 | 137 | 1.2 | ||
| 2024 | 24 | AAABOS | 49 | .286/.388/.524 | 1 | 0 | 106 | — | .250/.327/.455 | |
| 2024 | 24 | MLBBOS | 243 | .241/.337/.462 | 13 | 0 | 116 | 0.1 | ||
| 2025 | 25 | MLBBOS | 112 | .182/.277/.303 | 3 | 0 | 57 | -0.9 | ||
| 2026 | 26 | No MLB games played | ||||||||
| 2027PROJ | 27 | MLBBOS | 75 | .231/.313/.430 | 3 | 1 | 104 | 0.1 | ||
| 2028PROJ65% MLB | 28 | MLBBOS | 127 | .229/.310/.425 | 5 | 1 | 102 | 0.0 | ||
| 2029PROJ65% MLB | 29 | MLBBOS | 143 | .226/.307/.418 | 6 | 0 | 100 | -0.1 | ||
Tools · Splits · ContractCON 40 / POW 55
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built
All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | MLB% | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | SO | HBP | SB | CS | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | ISO | BABIP | K% | BB% | wOBA | wRC+ | BAT | RUN | FLD | POS | REP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2019 | 19 | A | Greenville Drive | — | 493 | 422 | 107 | 25 | 5 | 19 | 58 | 116 | 7 | 3 | 2 | 254 | 353 | 472 | 825 | 218 | 300 | 24 | 12 | 361 | 70 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 21 | AAA | Worcester Red Sox | — | 42 | 33 | 8 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 8 | 8 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 242 | 390 | 485 | 875 | 242 | 280 | 19 | 19 | 377 | 103 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 21 | AA | Portland Sea Dogs | — | 329 | 275 | 78 | 12 | 2 | 13 | 49 | 63 | 3 | 6 | 3 | 284 | 398 | 484 | 881 | 200 | 323 | 19 | 15 | 390 | 114 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 21 | INTL | Scottsdale Scorpions | — | 97 | 78 | 29 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 17 | 18 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 372 | 495 | 487 | 982 | 115 | 475 | 19 | 18 | 444 | 186 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 22 | MLB | Boston Red Sox | — | 95 | 76 | 15 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 19 | 23 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 197 | 358 | 408 | 766 | 211 | 208 | 24 | 20 | 348 | 122 | +2 | +0 | -0 | -8 | +2 | -0.4 |
| 2022 | 22 | AAA | Worcester Red Sox | — | 317 | 264 | 72 | 20 | 1 | 11 | 46 | 68 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 273 | 387 | 481 | 868 | 208 | 323 | 21 | 15 | 381 | 97 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 22 | ROK | FCL Red Sox | — | 17 | 14 | 6 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 429 | 529 | 857 | 1.387 | 429 | 455 | 12 | 18 | 579 | 145 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 22 | INTL | Tigres del Licey | — | 15 | 9 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 222 | 500 | 222 | 722 | 286 | 20 | 33 | 353 | 125 | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| 2023 | 23 | MLB | Boston Red Sox | — | 502 | 429 | 113 | 21 | 2 | 24 | 70 | 126 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 263 | 368 | 490 | 858 | 226 | 317 | 25 | 14 | 377 | 137 | +22 | +0 | -12 | -9 | +11 | 1.2 |
| 2024 | 24 | MLB | Boston Red Sox | — | 243 | 212 | 51 | 8 | 0 | 13 | 30 | 77 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 241 | 337 | 462 | 800 | 222 | 311 | 32 | 12 | 354 | 116 | +5 | -0 | -4 | -5 | +5 | 0.1 |
| 2024 | 24 | AAA | Worcester Red Sox | — | 49 | 42 | 12 | 7 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 14 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 286 | 388 | 524 | 912 | 238 | 407 | 29 | 12 | 400 | 106 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 25 | MLB | Boston Red Sox | — | 112 | 99 | 18 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 11 | 27 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 182 | 277 | 303 | 580 | 121 | 217 | 24 | 10 | 269 | 57 | -6 | +0 | -3 | -2 | +2 | -0.9 |
| ▸ Career Totals (raw MLB only — historical actual) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| MLB Career | — | — | 952 | 816 | 197 | 33 | 2 | 45 | 130 | 253 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 241 | 348 | 452 | 801 | 211 | 292 | 27 | 14 | 356 | 127 | +31 | -0 | -19 | -24 | +21 | 0.8 | ||
| ▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2019 | 19 | A MLE | Greenville Drive | — | 493 | 444 | 88 | 19 | 4 | 14 | 36 | 162 | 7 | 3 | 2 | 198 | 269 | 354 | 623 | 155 | 262 | 33 | 7 | 272 | 70 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 21 | AAA MLE | Worcester Red Sox | — | 42 | 35 | 8 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 9 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 229 | 341 | 457 | 799 | 229 | 260 | 21 | 14 | 320 | 103 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 21 | AA MLE | Portland Sea Dogs | — | 329 | 291 | 75 | 11 | 2 | 12 | 33 | 75 | 3 | 6 | 3 | 258 | 339 | 433 | 772 | 175 | 302 | 23 | 10 | 336 | 114 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 22 | MLB MLE | Boston Red Sox | — | 95 | 76 | 15 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 19 | 23 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 197 | 358 | 408 | 766 | 211 | 208 | 24 | 20 | 348 | 122 | +2 | +0 | -0 | -8 | +2 | -0.4 |
| 2022 | 22 | AAA MLE | Worcester Red Sox | — | 317 | 279 | 64 | 15 | 1 | 9 | 31 | 81 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 229 | 313 | 387 | 700 | 158 | 280 | 26 | 10 | 311 | 97 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 22 | ROK MLE | FCL Red Sox | — | 17 | 15 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 333 | 412 | 667 | 1.078 | 333 | 294 | 18 | 12 | 382 | 145 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 23 | MLB MLE | Boston Red Sox | — | 502 | 431 | 111 | 19 | 2 | 25 | 68 | 126 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 258 | 360 | 485 | 845 | 227 | 317 | 25 | 14 | 370 | 137 | +22 | +0 | -12 | -9 | +11 | 1.2 |
| 2024 | 24 | MLB MLE | Boston Red Sox | — | 243 | 216 | 50 | 7 | 0 | 13 | 26 | 77 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 231 | 317 | 444 | 761 | 213 | 311 | 32 | 11 | 340 | 116 | +5 | -0 | -4 | -5 | +5 | 0.1 |
| 2024 | 24 | AAA MLE | Worcester Red Sox | — | 49 | 44 | 11 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 17 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 250 | 327 | 455 | 781 | 205 | 373 | 35 | 8 | 325 | 106 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 25 | MLB MLE | Boston Red Sox | — | 112 | 101 | 18 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 9 | 27 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 178 | 259 | 297 | 556 | 119 | 217 | 24 | 8 | 252 | 57 | -6 | +0 | -3 | -2 | +2 | -0.9 |
| 2019 | 19 | A MLE | Greenville Drive | — | 493 | 444 | 88 | 19 | 4 | 14 | 36 | 162 | 7 | 3 | 2 | 198 | 269 | 354 | 623 | 155 | 270 | 33 | 7 | 272 | 70 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 19 | A RAW | Greenville Drive | — | 493 | 422 | 107 | 25 | 5 | 19 | 58 | 116 | 7 | 3 | 2 | 254 | 353 | 472 | 825 | 218 | 300 | 24 | 12 | 361 | 70 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 21 | AA MLE | 3 teams | — | 468 | 411 | 104 | 17 | 4 | 16 | 49 | 106 | 5 | 7 | 4 | 253 | 340 | 431 | 770 | 178 | 301 | 23 | 10 | 334 | 112 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 21 | AA RAW | 3 teams | — | 468 | 386 | 115 | 21 | 3 | 15 | 74 | 89 | 5 | 7 | 4 | 298 | 417 | 484 | 902 | 187 | 351 | 19 | 16 | 400 | 112 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 22 | AAA MLE | 4 teams | — | 444 | 383 | 86 | 18 | 1 | 15 | 53 | 110 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 225 | 323 | 394 | 718 | 170 | 270 | 25 | 12 | 322 | 104 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 22 | AAA RAW | 4 teams | — | 444 | 363 | 95 | 24 | 1 | 17 | 73 | 96 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 262 | 390 | 474 | 863 | 212 | 306 | 22 | 16 | 380 | 104 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 23 | MLB MLE | Boston Red Sox | — | 502 | 431 | 111 | 19 | 2 | 25 | 68 | 126 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 258 | 360 | 485 | 845 | 227 | 305 | 25 | 14 | 370 | 137 | +22 | +0 | -12 | -9 | +11 | 1.2 |
| 2023 | 23 | MLB RAW | Boston Red Sox | — | 502 | 429 | 113 | 21 | 2 | 24 | 70 | 126 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 263 | 368 | 490 | 858 | 226 | 317 | 25 | 14 | 377 | 137 | +22 | +0 | -12 | -9 | +11 | 1.2 |
| 2024 | 24 | MLB MLE | 2 teams | — | 292 | 260 | 60 | 13 | 0 | 14 | 30 | 94 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 231 | 315 | 442 | 757 | 212 | 303 | 32 | 10 | 337 | 114 | +5 | -0 | -4 | -5 | +6 | 0.2 |
| 2024 | 24 | MLB RAW | 2 teams | — | 292 | 254 | 63 | 15 | 0 | 14 | 36 | 91 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 248 | 346 | 472 | 818 | 224 | 329 | 31 | 12 | 362 | 114 | +5 | -0 | -4 | -5 | +6 | 0.2 |
| 2025 | 25 | MLB MLE | Boston Red Sox | — | 112 | 101 | 18 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 9 | 27 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 178 | 259 | 297 | 556 | 119 | 211 | 24 | 8 | 252 | 57 | -6 | +0 | -3 | -2 | +2 | -0.9 |
| 2025 | 25 | MLB RAW | Boston Red Sox | — | 112 | 99 | 18 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 11 | 27 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 182 | 277 | 303 | 580 | 121 | 217 | 24 | 10 | 269 | 57 | -6 | +0 | -3 | -2 | +2 | -0.9 |
| 2019 | 19 | A MLE | Greenville Drive | — | 493 | 447 | 88 | 19 | 4 | 14 | 36 | 162 | 7 | 3 | 2 | 197 | 269 | 351 | 620 | 154 | 262 | 33 | 7 | 272 | 70 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 21 | AA MLE | 3 teams | — | 468 | 411 | 104 | 17 | 4 | 16 | 49 | 106 | 5 | 7 | 4 | 253 | 340 | 431 | 770 | 178 | 297 | 23 | 10 | 334 | 112 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 22 | AAA MLE | 4 teams | — | 444 | 385 | 86 | 18 | 1 | 15 | 53 | 110 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 223 | 323 | 392 | 716 | 169 | 265 | 25 | 12 | 322 | 104 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 23 | MLB MLE | Boston Red Sox | — | 502 | 428 | 111 | 19 | 2 | 25 | 68 | 126 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 259 | 360 | 488 | 848 | 229 | 317 | 25 | 14 | 370 | 137 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 24 | MLB MLE | 2 teams | — | 292 | 258 | 60 | 13 | 0 | 14 | 30 | 94 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 233 | 315 | 446 | 761 | 213 | 322 | 32 | 10 | 337 | 114 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 25 | MLB MLE | Boston Red Sox | — | 112 | 100 | 18 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 9 | 27 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 180 | 259 | 300 | 559 | 120 | 217 | 24 | 8 | 252 | 57 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2024 | 24 | MLB MLE | 2 teams | — | 292 | 258 | 60 | 13 | 0 | 14 | 30 | 94 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 233 | 315 | 446 | 761 | 213 | 322 | 32 | 10 | 337 | 114 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 25 | MLB MLE | Boston Red Sox | — | 112 | 100 | 18 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 9 | 27 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 180 | 259 | 300 | 559 | 120 | 217 | 24 | 8 | 252 | 57 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ 2027 season | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 27 | MLB MLE | BOS | 100% | 180 | 159 | 37 | 7 | 1 | 8 | 17 | 46 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 225 | 307 | 423 | 730 | 198 | 263 | 26 | 9 | 323 | 104 | +1 | -0 | -0 | -3 | +4 | 0.1 |
| ▸ 2027 — real world (MLB) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 27 | MLB CTX | BOS | 100% | 75 | 67 | 15 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 7 | 19 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 231 | 313 | 430 | 743 | 199 | 274 | 25 | 9 | 328 | 104 | +0 | +0 | -0 | -1 | +2 | 0.1 |
| ▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2028 | 28 | MLB MLE | BOS | 65% | 196 | 174 | 39 | 8 | 1 | 8 | 18 | 51 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 223 | 305 | 418 | 723 | 195 | 262 | 26 | 9 | 320 | 102 | +1 | -0 | -1 | -4 | +4 | 0.0 |
| 2029 | 29 | MLB MLE | BOS | 65% | 220 | 196 | 43 | 8 | 1 | 9 | 20 | 58 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 220 | 302 | 411 | 712 | 190 | 260 | 26 | 9 | 315 | 100 | -0 | -0 | -2 | -4 | +5 | -0.2 |
| 2028 | 28 | MLB CTX | BOS | 65% | 127 | 113 | 26 | 6 | 0 | 5 | 12 | 33 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 229 | 310 | 425 | 735 | 196 | 272 | 26 | 9 | 325 | 102 | +0 | +0 | -1 | -2 | +3 | 0.0 |
| 2029 | 29 | MLB CTX | BOS | 65% | 143 | 127 | 28 | 6 | 0 | 6 | 13 | 38 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 226 | 307 | 418 | 725 | 192 | 270 | 27 | 9 | 321 | 100 | -0 | +0 | -1 | -3 | +3 | -0.1 |
| ▸ Career Totals | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | A+C | — | 1222 | 1056 | 251 | 45 | 2 | 56 | 155 | 324 | 7 | 2 | 1 | 238 | 339 | 443 | 782 | 205 | 287 | 27 | 13 | 348 | 104 | +31 | +0 | -21 | -29 | +26 | 0.8 | |
| / 162G | — | A+C | — | 650 | 562 | 134 | 24 | 1 | 30 | 82 | 172 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 238 | 340 | 445 | 784 | 206 | 287 | 26 | 13 | 348 | 104 | +16 | +0 | -11 | -15 | +14 | 0.4 | |
| Career | — | MLE | — | 2802 | 2467 | 564 | 108 | 13 | 107 | 290 | 753 | 25 | 13 | 10 | 229 | 316 | 413 | 729 | 184 | 281 | 27 | 10 | 322 | 104 | +31 | -1 | -22 | -33 | +31 | 0.7 | |
| / 162G | — | MLE | — | 650 | 572 | 131 | 25 | 3 | 25 | 67 | 175 | 6 | 3 | 2 | 229 | 316 | 414 | 730 | 185 | 282 | 27 | 10 | 322 | 104 | +14 | -0 | -10 | -15 | +14 | 0.3 | |
How the minor-league lines were translated
One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.
2024 AAAWorcester Red Sox · 49 PAwOBA .390 → .325 (−65)K% 28.6% → 34.1%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 28.57% | ÷1.004 | ×1.200 | — | — | 34.14% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 12.24% | ÷1.049 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.048 | 8.44% |
| HBP% /PA | 2.04% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×1.048 | 2.01% |
| Singles /BIP | 14.29% | ÷1.036 | ×0.930 | — | ×1.048 | 13.44% |
| Doubles /BIP | 25.00% | ÷0.951 | ×0.830 | — | ×1.048 | 22.86% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.143 | ×0.970 | — | ×1.048 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 3.57% | ÷0.996 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.048 | 2.63% |
Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 99, 1B 107, 2B 90, 3B 129, K 101, BB 110 — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 27.2 → +4.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.2 yr younger than average).
Result: wOBA .390 → .325; ISO .238 → .199; BABIP .407 → .373. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2022 AAAWorcester Red Sox · 317 PAwOBA .372 → .311 (−61)K% 21.5% → 25.4%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 21.45% | ÷1.013 | ×1.200 | — | — | 25.41% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 13.25% | ÷0.987 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.050 | 9.72% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.95% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×1.050 | 0.93% |
| Singles /BIP | 20.41% | ÷1.010 | ×0.930 | ×0.982 | ×1.050 | 19.37% |
| Doubles /BIP | 10.20% | ÷1.179 | ×0.830 | ×0.982 | ×1.050 | 7.41% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.51% | ÷1.000 | ×0.970 | ×0.982 | ×1.050 | 0.51% |
| Home runs /BIP | 5.61% | ÷0.939 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.050 | 4.39% |
Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 88, 1B 102, 2B 136, 3B 100, K 103, BB 97 — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 27.2 → +5.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (5.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.982.
Result: wOBA .372 → .311; ISO .208 → .166; BABIP .323 → .280. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2022 ROKFCL Red Sox · 17 PAwOBA .563 → .382 (−181)K% 11.8% → 16.9%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 11.76% | ÷1.000 | ×1.440 | — | — | 16.94% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 17.65% | ÷1.080 | ×0.620 | — | ×0.975 | 9.88% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.720 | — | ×0.975 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 16.67% | ÷1.010 | ×0.820 | — | ×0.975 | 13.19% |
| Doubles /BIP | 25.00% | ÷1.229 | ×0.720 | — | ×0.975 | 14.28% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.908 | ×0.720 | — | ×0.975 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 8.33% | ÷0.943 | ×0.780 | — | ×0.975 | 6.72% |
Factors used: level-wide ROK factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 89, 1B 102, 2B 146, 3B 82, K 100, BB 116 — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 19.5 → −2.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.5 yr older than average).
Result: wOBA .563 → .382; ISO .429 → .306; BABIP .455 → .294. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2021 AAPortland Sea Dogs · 329 PAwOBA .382 → .336 (−46)K% 19.1% → 22.8%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 19.15% | ÷1.025 | ×1.220 | — | — | 22.79% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 14.89% | ÷1.078 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.050 | 10.01% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.91% | — | ×0.850 | — | ×1.050 | 0.81% |
| Singles /BIP | 24.06% | ÷1.047 | ×0.940 | ×1.008 | ×1.050 | 22.86% |
| Doubles /BIP | 5.66% | ÷1.064 | ×0.870 | ×1.008 | ×1.050 | 4.90% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.94% | ÷0.900 | ×0.920 | ×1.008 | ×1.050 | 1.02% |
| Home runs /BIP | 6.13% | ÷0.900 | ×0.780 | — | ×1.050 | 5.58% |
Factors used: level-wide AA factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 80, 1B 109, 2B 113, 3B 80, K 105, BB 116 — applied at half strength. Age: age 21 vs a level average of 24.8 → +5.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.008.
Result: wOBA .382 → .336; ISO .200 → .188; BABIP .323 → .302. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2021 AAAWorcester Red Sox · 42 PAwOBA .377 → .320 (−57)K% 19.0% → 22.4%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 19.05% | ÷1.021 | ×1.200 | — | — | 22.40% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 19.05% | ÷1.008 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.050 | 13.69% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×1.050 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 12.00% | ÷0.974 | ×0.930 | — | ×1.050 | 12.03% |
| Doubles /BIP | 12.00% | ÷0.992 | ×0.830 | — | ×1.050 | 10.55% |
| Triples /BIP | 4.00% | ÷1.023 | ×0.920 | — | ×1.050 | 3.78% |
| Home runs /BIP | 4.00% | ÷1.318 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.050 | 2.23% |
Factors used: level-wide AAA factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 164, 1B 95, 2B 98, 3B 105, K 104, BB 102 — applied at half strength. Age: age 21 vs a level average of 27.2 → +5.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (6.2 yr younger than average).
Result: wOBA .377 → .320; ISO .242 → .202; BABIP .280 → .260. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2019 AGreenville Drive · 493 PAwOBA .353 → .272 (−81)K% 23.5% → 32.9%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 23.53% | ÷0.960 | ×1.340 | — | — | 32.86% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 11.16% | ÷1.037 | ×0.660 | — | ×1.045 | 7.42% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.42% | — | ×0.770 | — | ×1.045 | 1.14% |
| Singles /BIP | 18.95% | ÷0.987 | ×0.920 | ×0.950 | ×1.045 | 17.54% |
| Doubles /BIP | 8.17% | ÷1.015 | ×0.820 | ×0.950 | ×1.045 | 6.55% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.63% | ÷1.150 | ×0.940 | ×0.950 | ×1.045 | 1.33% |
| Home runs /BIP | 6.21% | ÷1.091 | ×0.820 | — | ×1.045 | 4.88% |
Factors used: league row SAL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 118, 1B 97, 2B 103, 3B 130, K 92, BB 107 — applied at half strength. Age: age 19 vs a level average of 22.0 → +4.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.0 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.
Result: wOBA .353 → .272; ISO .218 → .163; BABIP .300 → .262. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
Not traceable per stint: some stints lack the counting stats the component translation needs. Level-wide factors that apply instead — .