Triston Casas — OGILVIE

Triston Casas1B Boston Red Sox

Age 26 L/R 6'4" / 244 lbs MLB H +3% Svc 3.186 · Ctrl thru 2028 ILInjured 60-Day (D60)

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 167 proj PA

wRC+†vL 11397vR 91

AVG/OBP/SLG.227 / .320 / .432

PA167

HR8

K%27

BB%11

ISO206

MLB%100%

Value2026 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit

Tools · Splits · ContractCON 40 / POW 55

Toolsscout grade · Statcast %ile · 2023-2025

CONTACT40

Whiff%

3912.2%

xwOBA

850.349

POWER55

Barrel%

8012.7

Avg EV

6990.4

Bat Spd

8675.1

EYE55

Chase%

7526.8%

SPEED30

Sprint

1024.4

Platoon Splits2024-2025 · 343 PA

vs LHP

vs RHP

Edge

282

—

wRC+

113

◀◀L

wOBA

333

304

◀L

ISO

196

177

◀L

BABIP

344

258

◀◀L

34.4%

28.7%

▶▶R

BB%

8.2%

10.3%

▶▶R

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status Arb-1

MLB Debut 2022

Service 3.186 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2028

First FA Year 2029

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026ROS	Ext	$0.6M	+0.2	$0.6M	-$0.0M
2027	Arb-2	$2M	+0.7	$3M	+$0.3M
2028	Arb-3	$3M	+0.6	$2M	+$0.0M (cut)
Totals		$3M		$5M	+$0.3M

Career Stats + Projections

Viewactual = stats as recorded (prior seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2019	19	A	Greenville Drive	—	493	446	81	18	3	12	34	169	7	3	2	182	251	316	567	135	255	34	7	251	50	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	19	A	Greenville Drive	—	493	422	107	25	5	19	58	116	7	3	2	254	353	472	825	218	300	24	12	361	134	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	21	AA	3 teams	—	468	416	102	16	4	20	44	109	5	7	4	245	325	447	772	202	283	23	9	331	112	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	21	AA	3 teams	—	468	386	115	21	3	15	74	89	5	7	4	298	417	484	902	187	351	19	16	400	164	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	22	AAA	4 teams	—	444	384	84	16	1	17	52	109	3	1	1	219	317	398	715	180	255	25	12	316	100	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	22	AAA	4 teams	—	444	363	95	24	1	17	73	96	3	1	1	262	390	474	863	212	306	22	16	380	149	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	23	MLB	Boston Red Sox	—	502	429	109	19	2	24	70	126	1	0	0	254	360	476	836	221	302	25	14	361	135	+20	+0	-12	-9	+14	1.3
2023	23	MLB	Boston Red Sox	—	502	429	113	21	2	24	70	126	1	0	0	263	368	490	858	226	317	25	14	377	147	+27	+0	-12	-9	+14	2.0
2024	24	MLB	2 teams	—	292	256	60	13	0	14	34	94	2	0	1	234	329	449	778	215	311	32	12	329	110	+3	-0	-4	-5	+8	0.2
2024	24	MLB	2 teams	—	292	254	63	15	0	14	36	91	2	0	1	248	346	472	818	224	329	31	12	362	135	+12	-0	-4	-5	+8	1.1
2025	25	MLB	Boston Red Sox	—	112	99	18	3	0	3	11	27	2	0	0	182	277	303	580	121	217	24	10	246	47	-7	+0	-3	-2	+3	-0.9
2025	25	MLB	Boston Red Sox	—	112	99	18	3	0	3	11	27	2	0	0	182	277	303	580	121	217	24	10	269	64	-5	+0	-3	-2	+3	-0.7
▸ 2026 Season
2026	26	MLB	BOS	—	167	145	34	7	0	8	19	45	1	1	0	234	327	448	776	214	274	27	11	335	114	+3	+0	-0	-3	+5	0.4
▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘPARK-NEUTRAL MLE · ALL-LEVEL PT ⓘ
2027	27	MLB	BOS	82%	324	281	65	13	1	15	37	88	3	1	1	231	327	445	772	214	274	27	11	335	114	+5	-0	-1	-6	+9	0.8
2028	28	MLB	BOS	82%	357	310	71	14	1	16	41	97	3	1	1	229	325	435	760	206	273	27	11	334	113	+5	-0	-2	-6	+10	0.8
2027	27	MLB	BOS	82%	266	232	54	11	1	12	30	72	2	1	0	233	326	444	770	211	281	27	11	333	113	+4	+0	-1	-5	+8	0.7
2028	28	MLB	BOS	82%	293	256	59	12	1	13	33	80	2	1	0	230	323	438	761	207	280	27	11	332	112	+4	+0	-1	-5	+8	0.6
▸ Career Totals
Career	—			—	1511	1304	310	56	4	70	193	405	8	3	1	238	340	448	787	210	288	27	13	347	124	+41	+0	-21	-34	+43	2.9
/ 162G	—			—	650	561	133	24	2	30	83	174	3	1	0	237	338	447	786	210	287	27	13	347	124	+18	+0	-9	-15	+18	1.3
Career	—			—	3159	2766	624	119	12	129	342	864	27	14	10	226	317	417	734	192	276	27	11	319	102	+8	-1	-22	-56	+90	1.9
/ 162G	—			—	650	569	128	24	2	27	70	178	6	3	2	225	316	417	733	192	274	27	11	319	102	+2	-0	-4	-12	+18	0.4

Historical Stats — Raw (Per Stint)

Actual MLB + MiLB stats as they happened, one row per stint at each level. Use this to see what really got recorded; the table above shows MLB-equivalent translations + projections.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2019	19	A	Greenville Drive	—	493	422	107	25	5	19	58	116	7	3	2	254	353	472	825	218	300	24	12	361	134	+19	-0	—	—	+14	3.3
2021	21	AAA	Worcester Red Sox	—	42	33	8	3	1	1	8	8	0	1	0	242	390	485	875	242	280	19	19	377	147	+2	+0	—	—	+1	0.4
2021	21	AA	Portland Sea Dogs	—	329	275	78	12	2	13	49	63	3	6	3	284	398	484	881	200	323	19	15	390	156	+21	+0	—	—	+9	3.1
2021	21	INTL	Scottsdale Scorpions	—	97	78	29	6	0	1	17	18	2	0	1	372	495	487	982	115	475	19	18	444	198	+11	-0	—	—	+3	1.3
2022	22	MLB	Boston Red Sox	—	95	76	15	1	0	5	19	23	0	1	0	197	358	408	766	211	208	24	20	348	125	+3	+0	-0	-8	+3	-0.3
2022	22	AAA	Worcester Red Sox	—	317	264	72	20	1	11	46	68	3	0	0	273	387	481	868	208	323	21	15	381	149	+18	+0	—	—	+9	2.7
2022	22	ROK	FCL Red Sox	—	17	14	6	3	0	1	3	2	0	0	0	429	529	857	1.387	429	455	12	18	579	301	+4	+0	—	—	+0	0.4
2022	22	INTL	Tigres del Licey	—	15	9	2	0	0	0	5	3	0	0	1	222	500	222	722		286	20	33	353	128	+0	-0	—	—	+0	0.1
2023	23	MLB	Boston Red Sox	—	502	429	113	21	2	24	70	126	1	0	0	263	368	490	858	226	317	25	14	377	147	+27	+0	-12	-9	+14	2.0
2024	24	MLB	Boston Red Sox	—	243	212	51	8	0	13	30	77	1	0	1	241	337	462	800	222	311	32	12	354	129	+8	-0	-4	-5	+7	0.6
2024	24	AAA	Worcester Red Sox	—	49	42	12	7	0	1	6	14	1	0	0	286	388	524	912	238	407	29	12	400	164	+4	+0	—	—	+1	0.5
2025	25	MLB	Boston Red Sox	—	112	99	18	3	0	3	11	27	2	0	0	182	277	303	580	121	217	24	10	269	64	-5	+0	-3	-2	+3	-0.7
▸ Career Totals (raw MLB only — historical actual)
MLB Career	—			—	952	816	197	33	2	45	130	253	4	1	1	241	348	452	801	211	292	27	14	356	130	+33	-0	-19	-24	+27	1.7

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Top row of each card is career totals; bottom row is per-162-game rates. Pool: 727 completed hitter careers (2000-2024).

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	YRS	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Jonny Gomeslast yr '15 career totals — 11 seasons, 3,978 PA	11	3,978	162	50	243	335	438	-43	-67	8.3	9.2
	/162	664	27	8	243	335	438	-7.1	-11.1	1.4	pk7: 10
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 7 projected seasons	7	1,677	78	4	238	336	448	-30	-43	5.9	5.9
	/162	664	31	2	238	336	448	-11.9	-17.2	2.3	pk7: 6
#2Stephen Piscottylast yr '22 career totals — 8 seasons, 2,802 PA	8	2,802	93	23	255	324	430	-30	-35	5.0	5.3
	/162	664	22	5	255	324	430	-7.1	-8.4	1.2	pk7: 6
#3Luke Voitlast yr '23 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,912 PA	7	1,912	95	3	253	339	468	-34	-35	4.6	4.6
#3Luke Voitlast yr '23 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,912 PA	/162	664	33	1	253	339	468	-11.9	-12.0	1.6	pk7: 5
#4Eric Thameslast yr '20 career totals — 6 seasons, 2,112 PA	6	2,112	96	18	241	325	467	-33	-44	3.7	3.7
	/162	664	30	6	241	325	467	-10.3	-13.7	1.2	pk7: 4
#5Justin Bourlast yr '19 career totals — 6 seasons, 1,950 PA	6	1,950	92	3	253	337	457	-35	-37	3.6	3.6
	/162	664	31	1	253	337	457	-11.9	-12.4	1.2	pk7: 4
#6Ji Man Choilast yr '23 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,823 PA	7	1,823	65	6	234	338	423	-33	-31	1.8	1.8
	/162	664	24	2	234	338	423	-11.9	-11.3	0.7	pk7: 2

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Triston Casas (OGILVIE)	26	40	55	30	55	227/320/432	205	274	8	1	27%	11%	114	+0.8	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
●Chris Duncan 2007 · MLB	26	47→50	57→60	39→40	48	246/312/441	195	297	26	3	27%	9%	112	+2.6	245/329/420	175	305	21	4	25%	11%	114	+2.7	234/330/390	156	291	18	2	24%	12%	101	+1.1
✕Ike Davis 2013 · MLB	26	46→54	60	38→40	54	247/328/465	218	280	28	2	23%	11%	125	+3.5	228/325/394	166	274	19	3	23%	13%	105	+2.1	220/325/361	140	268	14	2	22%	13%	92	+0.7
●Rowdy Tellez 2021 · MLB	26	47→50	58→65	41→45	46	251/314/456	205	292	27	4	24%	7%	118	+3.0	240/313/456	216	263	29	3	21%	9%	117	+2.9	229/307/441	212	247	30	1	21%	9%	103	+1.5
●Adam LaRoche 2007 · MLB	27	51→55	61→65	34→40	51	271/338/505	233	302	29	2	21%	9%	139	+4.4	271/344/484	213	317	25	2	22%	10%	136	+4.2	271/347/477	206	318	23	1	22%	10%	127	+3.6
●Max Kepler 2020 · MLB	27	45→55	60	37→50	56	241/325/461	220	249	27	4	17%	10%	123	+3.3	231/320/430	199	246	24	8	18%	11%	113	+2.6	230/318/412	181	254	22	6	19%	10%	104	+1.6
●Jay Gibbons 2004 · MLB	27	50→54	57→60	36→30	52	263/321/462	199	267	24	2	13%	8%	121	+3.2	265/319/453	188	276	22	2	14%	7%	118	+3.0	266/320/456	190	275	23	0	13%	7%	115	+2.0
✕Mike Carp 2012 · MLB	26	47→56	56→55	41→40	45	249/308/436	187	294	25	4	25%	7%	110	+2.4	242/310/402	160	303	18	5	25%	8%	101	+1.8	224/304/359	135	287	13	2	25%	9%	85	+0.3
✕Oswaldo Arcia 2016 · MLB	25	42→51	55→60	40→45	41	224/282/404	180	279	24	3	29%	6%	91	+1.1	220/285/396	176	295	23	4	32%	7%	89	+1.0	215/292/414	198	292	26	3	34%	8%	95	+0.7
✕Devin Mesoraco 2015 · MLB	27	47→49	56→60	35→40	50	250/323/441	191	280	24	3	21%	8%	117	+2.9	230/314/393	163	269	19	6	22%	9%	101	+1.8	206/298/365	159	231	21	1	21%	9%	83	+0.2
●Kila Ka'aihue 2010 · MLB	26	44→50	55→60	41→30	58	233/326/413	180	251	24	2	19%	12%	111	+2.5	237/322/405	168	283	21	3	23%	11%	107	+2.2	236/320/406	170	283	22	2	24%	11%	105	+1.8
✕Preston Tucker 2016 · MLB	26	45→46	54→55	40	44	237/286/411	173	275	22	3	23%	6%	94	+1.3	218/271/376	158	263	19	3	25%	6%	78	+0.2	232/310/385	153	274	16	1	21%	8%	95	+0.6
●Karim Garcia 2004 · MLB	28	50→51	60	34→50	44	269/308/474	205	290	31	3	20%	5%	120	+3.1	243/289/410	167	270	22	7	19%	6%	95	+1.4	284/331/478	194	322	23	10	19%	6%	127	+2.0
✕Tommy Joseph 2017 · MLB	26	45→47	59→60	40→30	44	247/293/447	201	264	28	3	20%	5%	106	+2.2	240/291/426	186	282	25	3	24%	6%	100	+1.7	235/288/422	187	275	25	1	25%	6%	95	+1.1
●Daniel Vogelbach 2020 · MLB	27	43→53	60	42→40	60	237/342/451	214	270	29	2	24%	14%	127	+3.6	236/351/437	201	279	27	2	24%	15%	128	+3.6	237/357/419	182	285	24	0	24%	15%	121	+2.0
✕Austin Allen 2020 · MLB	26	43→51	60→65	38→40	40	240/285/455	215	280	29	2	27%	5%	105	+2.1	236/278/434	198	283	27	3	27%	5%	97	+1.5	213/264/410	197	244	28	0	27%	5%	81	+0.2
✕Cody Decker 2013 · AAA	26	38→40	64→65	38→30	40	221/279/455	234	275	33	3	33%	7%	103	+1.9	201/263/393	192	278	26	2	36%	7%	80	+0.4	173/244/315	142	258	19	0	39%	8%	51	-0.5
●Kerry Carpenter 2023 · MLB	25	45→54	61→70	35→45	40	245/295/466	221	289	30	5	27%	5%	112	+2.6	266/320/502	236	315	32	5	26%	6%	132	+4.0	270/325/517	247	313	34	3	25%	6%	134	+2.9
●Pedro Álvarez 2013 · MLB	26	45→46	56→60	44→45	47	235/307/425	190	307	24	3	31%	9%	106	+2.2	239/310/452	213	293	30	5	29%	9%	115	+2.7	236/310/454	218	281	32	5	28%	9%	106	+1.8
✕Seth Beer 2022 · AAA	25	44→45	54→55	41→30	44	229/317/406	177	268	22	3	23%	6%	107	+2.2	209/293/341	132	263	15	2	26%	7%	79	+0.3	202/284/322	120	262	14	0	27%	7%	68	-0.3
●Renato Núñez 2020 · MLB	26	44→51	56→60	43→30	45	236/298/421	184	280	25	3	26%	7%	102	+1.8	242/310/452	210	289	29	3	27%	7%	115	+2.8	236/309/467	231	279	34	1	28%	7%	117	+1.6