Triston Casas — OGILVIE

Triston Casas1B Boston Red Sox

Age 26 L/R 6'4" / 244 lbs MLB HR -5%K -4% Svc 3.186 · Ctrl thru 2028 ILInjured 60-Day (D60)

2026 ROS PROJECTION0 act + 0 ros · stats below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+†vL 108114vR 116

AVG/OBP/SLG—

PA4

HR0

K%25

BB%11

BABIP281

ISO208

MLB%100%

Value2026 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control+$2M ctrl surplus

Tools · Splits · ContractCON 40 / POW 55

Toolsscout grade · Statcast %ile · 2023-2025

CONTACT40

Whiff%

3912.2%

xAVG

300.235

POWER55

Barrel%

8012.7

Avg EV

6990.4

Bat Spd

8675.1

EYE55

Chase%

7526.8%

SPEED30

Sprint

1024.4

Platoon Splits2024-2025 · 343 PA

vs LHP

vs RHP

Edge

282

—

wRC+

111

◀◀L

wOBA

333

304

◀L

ISO

196

177

◀L

BABIP

344

258

◀◀L

34.4%

28.7%

▶▶R

BB%

8.2%

10.3%

▶▶R

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status Arb-1

MLB Debut 2022

Service 3.186 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2028

First FA Year 2029

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026ROS	Ext	$0.1M	+0.0	$0.2M	+$0.1M
2027	Arb-2	$2M	+0.5	$2M	+$0.0M (cut)
2028	Arb-3	$4M	+0.5	$2M	+$0.0M (cut)
Totals		$0.1M		$4M	+$0.1M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2019	19	A	Greenville Drive	—	493	422	107	25	5	19	58	116	7	3	2	254	353	472	825	218	300	24	12	361	130	+18	-0	—	—	+11	2.9
2021	21	AAA	Worcester Red Sox	—	42	33	8	3	1	1	8	8	0	1	0	242	390	485	875	242	280	19	19	377	141	+2	+0	—	—	+1	0.3
2021	21	AA	Portland Sea Dogs	—	329	275	78	12	2	13	49	63	3	6	3	284	398	484	881	200	323	19	15	390	150	+20	+0	—	—	+7	2.7
2021	21	INTL	Scottsdale Scorpions	—	97	78	29	6	0	1	17	18	2	0	1	372	495	487	982	115	475	19	18	444	186	+10	-0	—	—	+2	1.2
2022	22	MLB	Boston Red Sox	—	95	76	15	1	0	5	19	23	0	1	0	197	358	408	766	211	208	24	20	348	122	+2	+0	-0	-8	+2	-0.4
2022	22	AAA	Worcester Red Sox	—	317	264	72	20	1	11	46	68	3	0	0	273	387	481	868	208	323	21	15	381	144	+17	+0	—	—	+7	2.4
2022	22	ROK	FCL Red Sox	—	17	14	6	3	0	1	3	2	0	0	0	429	529	857	1.387	429	455	12	18	579	278	+4	+0	—	—	+0	0.4
2022	22	INTL	Tigres del Licey	—	15	9	2	0	0	0	5	3	0	0	1	222	500	222	722		286	20	33	353	125	+0	-0	—	—	+0	0.0
2023	23	MLB	Boston Red Sox	—	502	429	113	21	2	24	70	126	1	0	0	263	368	490	858	226	317	25	14	377	142	+25	+0	-12	-9	+11	1.5
2024	24	MLB	Boston Red Sox	—	243	212	51	8	0	13	30	77	1	0	1	241	337	462	800	222	311	32	12	354	126	+8	-0	-4	-5	+5	0.4
2024	24	AAA	Worcester Red Sox	—	49	42	12	7	0	1	6	14	1	0	0	286	388	524	912	238	407	29	12	400	157	+3	+0	—	—	+1	0.4
2025	25	MLB	Boston Red Sox	—	112	99	18	3	0	3	11	27	2	0	0	182	277	303	580	121	217	24	10	269	68	-4	+0	-3	-2	+2	-0.7
▸ Career Totals (raw MLB only — historical actual)
MLB Career	—			—	952	816	197	33	2	45	130	253	4	1	1	241	348	452	801	211	292	27	14	356	127	+31	-0	-19	-24	+21	0.8
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2019	19	A MLE	Greenville Drive	—	493	445	85	18	4	14	35	162	7	3	2	191	261	344	605	153	250	33	7	262	63	-21	-0	—	—	+11	-1.1
2021	21	AAA MLE	Worcester Red Sox	—	42	36	8	3	1	1	5	9	0	1	0	222	317	444	762	222	247	21	12	307	94	-0	+0	—	—	+1	0.1
2021	21	AA MLE	Portland Sea Dogs	—	329	293	72	10	2	12	31	75	3	6	3	246	324	416	741	171	287	23	9	322	104	+2	+0	—	—	+7	0.9
2022	22	MLB MLE	Boston Red Sox	—	95	76	15	1	0	5	19	23	0	1	0	197	358	408	766	211	208	24	20	345	120	+2	+0	-0	-8	+2	-0.4
2022	22	AAA MLE	Worcester Red Sox	—	317	281	62	14	1	9	29	81	3	0	0	221	300	374	674	153	266	26	9	298	88	-5	+0	—	—	+7	0.2
2022	22	ROK MLE	FCL Red Sox	—	17	15	5	2	0	1	2	3	0	0	0	333	412	667	1.078	333	303	18	12	390	150	+1	+0	—	—	+0	0.1
2023	23	MLB MLE	Boston Red Sox	—	502	429	112	20	2	25	70	126	1	0	0	261	366	492	858	231	317	25	14	369	136	+22	+0	-12	-9	+11	1.2
2024	24	MLB MLE	Boston Red Sox	—	243	212	51	8	0	13	30	77	1	0	1	241	337	462	800	222	311	32	12	338	115	+4	-0	-4	-5	+5	0.0
2024	24	AAA MLE	Worcester Red Sox	—	49	44	11	6	0	1	4	17	1	0	0	250	327	455	781	205	355	35	8	312	97	-0	+0	—	—	+1	0.1
2025	25	MLB MLE	Boston Red Sox	—	112	99	18	3	0	3	11	27	2	0	0	182	277	303	580	121	217	24	10	252	56	-6	+0	-3	-2	+2	-0.9
2019	19	A MLE	Greenville Drive	—	493	445	85	18	4	14	35	162	7	3	2	191	261	344	605	153	258	33	7	262	63	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	19	A RAW	Greenville Drive	—	493	422	107	25	5	19	58	116	7	3	2	254	353	472	825	218	300	24	12	361	63	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	21	AA MLE	3 teams	—	468	414	99	16	4	15	46	106	5	7	4	239	323	406	728	167	284	23	10	320	103	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	21	AA RAW	3 teams	—	468	386	115	21	3	15	74	89	5	7	4	298	417	484	902	187	351	19	16	400	103	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	22	AAA MLE	4 teams	—	444	384	84	18	1	15	52	110	3	1	1	219	317	388	705	169	261	25	12	312	97	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	22	AAA RAW	4 teams	—	444	363	95	24	1	17	73	96	3	1	1	262	390	474	863	212	306	22	16	380	97	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	23	MLB MLE	Boston Red Sox	—	502	429	112	20	2	25	70	126	1	0	0	261	366	492	858	231	311	25	14	369	136	+22	+0	-12	-9	+11	1.2
2023	23	MLB RAW	Boston Red Sox	—	502	429	113	21	2	24	70	126	1	0	0	263	368	490	858	226	317	25	14	377	136	+22	+0	-12	-9	+11	1.2
2024	24	MLB MLE	2 teams	—	292	256	61	14	0	14	34	94	2	0	1	238	332	457	789	219	318	32	12	334	112	+4	-0	-4	-5	+6	0.1
2024	24	MLB RAW	2 teams	—	292	254	63	15	0	14	36	91	2	0	1	248	346	472	818	224	329	31	12	362	112	+4	-0	-4	-5	+6	0.1
2025	25	MLB MLE	Boston Red Sox	—	112	99	18	3	0	3	11	27	2	0	0	182	277	303	580	121	217	24	10	252	56	-6	+0	-3	-2	+2	-0.9
2025	25	MLB RAW	Boston Red Sox	—	112	99	18	3	0	3	11	27	2	0	0	182	277	303	580	121	217	24	10	269	56	-6	+0	-3	-2	+2	-0.9
2019	19	A MLE	Greenville Drive	—	493	448	85	18	4	14	35	162	7	3	2	190	261	342	602	152	250	33	7	262	63	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	21	AA MLE	3 teams	—	468	414	99	16	4	15	46	106	5	7	4	239	323	406	728	167	282	23	10	320	103	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	22	AAA MLE	4 teams	—	444	386	84	18	1	15	52	110	3	1	1	218	317	386	703	168	255	25	12	312	97	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	23	MLB MLE	Boston Red Sox	—	502	426	112	20	2	25	70	126	1	0	0	263	366	495	861	232	317	25	14	369	136	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	24	MLB MLE	2 teams	—	292	254	61	14	0	14	34	94	2	0	1	240	332	461	793	220	319	32	12	334	112	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	25	MLB MLE	Boston Red Sox	—	112	98	18	3	0	3	11	27	2	0	0	184	277	306	583	122	217	24	10	252	56	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2023	23	MLB MLE	Boston Red Sox	—	502	426	112	20	2	25	70	126	1	0	0	263	366	495	861	232	317	25	14	369	136	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	24	MLB MLE	2 teams	—	292	254	61	14	0	14	34	94	2	0	1	240	332	461	793	220	319	32	12	334	112	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	25	MLB MLE	Boston Red Sox	—	112	98	18	3	0	3	11	27	2	0	0	184	277	306	583	122	217	24	10	252	56	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2026 season
2026	26	MLB MLE	BOS	100%	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0						276	25	0	337	114	+0	+0	-0	-0	+0	0.6
▸ 2026 — real world (MLB)
2026	26	MLB CTX	BOS	100%	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0						281	25	0	332	114	+0	+0	-0	-0	+0	0.0
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
2027	27	MLB MLE	BOS	82%	324	281	66	13	1	15	37	87	3	1	1	235	330	448	779	214	275	27	11	337	114	+5	-0	-1	-6	+7	0.6
2028	28	MLB MLE	BOS	82%	357	310	71	14	1	16	41	97	3	1	1	229	325	435	760	206	274	27	11	335	113	+6	-0	-2	-6	+8	0.5
2029	29	MLB MLE	BOS	82%	364	316	72	14	1	16	42	100	3	1	1	228	324	430	754	203	273	27	12	333	112	+5	-0	-2	-7	+8	0.4
2030	30	MLB MLE	BOS	82%	369	321	72	14	1	16	42	102	3	1	0	224	320	424	743	199	270	28	11	330	109	+4	+0	-3	-7	+8	0.3
2031	31	MLB MLE	BOS	82%	354	307	68	13	1	15	41	99	3	1	0	221	319	417	736	195	267	28	12	325	106	+3	+0	-4	-6	+8	0.1
2032	32	MLB MLE	BOS	82%	335	291	62	12	0	14	38	95	3	1	0	213	310	399	709	186	261	28	11	318	102	+1	+0	-4	-6	+7	-0.2
2027	27	MLB CTX	BOS	82%	266	232	54	11	1	12	30	72	2	1	0	233	326	444	770	211	281	27	11	332	114	+4	+0	-1	-5	+6	0.5
2028	28	MLB CTX	BOS	82%	293	256	59	12	1	13	33	80	2	1	0	230	323	438	761	207	280	27	11	331	113	+5	+0	-1	-5	+6	0.5
2029	29	MLB CTX	BOS	82%	298	260	60	12	1	13	34	81	2	1	0	231	324	435	759	204	279	27	11	329	112	+4	+0	-2	-5	+6	0.4
2030	30	MLB CTX	BOS	82%	303	263	59	12	0	13	35	84	2	1	0	224	320	418	738	194	276	28	12	326	109	+3	+0	-2	-5	+7	0.2
2031	31	MLB CTX	BOS	82%	290	253	55	11	0	12	33	81	2	1	0	217	312	403	716	186	273	28	11	321	106	+2	+0	-3	-5	+6	0.0
2032	32	MLB CTX	BOS	82%	275	240	51	10	0	11	31	78	2	1	0	212	308	392	699	179	267	28	11	314	102	+1	+0	-3	-5	+6	-0.2
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	2677	2320	535	101	5	119	326	729	16	7	1	231	329	432	762	202	281	27	12	336	104	+50	+1	-32	-55	+58	2.3
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	563	130	25	1	29	79	177	4	2	0	231	329	433	763	202	281	27	12	336	104	+12	+0	-8	-13	+14	0.5
Career	—	MLE		—	4418	3857	870	169	16	178	489	1206	38	17	11	226	319	416	735	191	277	27	11	322	104	+54	-0	-34	-62	+66	2.4
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	567	128	25	2	26	72	177	6	3	2	226	319	414	734	189	277	27	11	322	104	+11	-0	-7	-13	+14	0.5

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	162s	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Matt Joycelast yr '21 career totals — 13 seasons, 4,318 PA	6.5	4,318	146	34	242	343	425	-46	-44	11.7	11.9
/162	664	22	5	-7.1	-6.7	1.8	pk7: 12
#2Jonny Gomeslast yr '15 career totals — 11 seasons, 3,978 PA	6.0	3,978	162	50	243	335	438	-43	-67	8.3	9.2
/162	664	27	8	-7.1	-11.1	1.4	pk7: 10
#3Mitch Hanigerlast yr '24 career totals — 8 seasons, 3,089 PA	4.7	3,089	130	19	250	324	448	-31	-36	7.8	8.4
/162	664	28	4	-6.7	-7.8	1.7	pk7: 9
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 10 projected seasons	4.4	2,904	132	8	232	327	438	-52	-62	7.9	7.5
/162	664	30	2	-11.9	-14.2	1.8	pk7: 7
#4Lucas Dudalast yr '19 career totals — 10 seasons, 3,581 PA	5.4	3,581	156	6	239	334	448	-55	-97	3.0	4.2
/162	664	29	1	-10.2	-18.0	0.5	pk7: 5
#5Eric Thameslast yr '20 career totals — 6 seasons, 2,112 PA	3.2	2,112	96	18	241	325	467	-33	-44	3.7	3.7
/162	664	30	6	-10.3	-13.7	1.2	pk7: 4
#6Ji Man Choilast yr '23 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,823 PA	2.7	1,823	65	6	234	338	423	-33	-31	1.8	1.8
/162	664	24	2	-11.9	-11.3	0.7	pk7: 2

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Triston Casas (OGILVIE)	26	40	55	30	55	229/321/435	206	276	10	1	27%	11%	114	+0.9	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
●Chris Duncan 2007 · MLB	26	47→50	57→60	39→40	48	246/313/441	195	298	26	3	26%	9%	111	+2.1	245/330/420	175	305	21	4	25%	11%	112	+2.2	234/330/388	155	290	18	2	24%	12%	101	+0.9
●Kerry Carpenter 2023 · MLB	25	45→53	57→70	35→45	40	242/291/440	199	288	26	5	26%	5%	103	+1.6	261/316/484	223	311	29	5	26%	6%	122	+3.0	264/319/501	237	307	32	3	25%	6%	125	+2.2
✕Ike Davis 2013 · MLB	26	47→55	60	38→40	54	251/332/470	219	286	28	2	23%	11%	124	+3.1	231/327/400	169	277	20	3	23%	13%	107	+1.9	223/327/367	144	270	15	2	22%	13%	95	+0.6
●Adam LaRoche 2007 · MLB	27	51→55	61→65	34→40	51	271/338/505	233	302	29	2	21%	9%	135	+3.8	271/344/484	213	317	25	2	22%	10%	132	+3.6	271/347/477	206	318	23	1	22%	10%	124	+3.1
✕Rowdy Tellez 2021 · MLB	26	47→49	58→60	41→45	46	250/312/450	200	290	26	4	24%	7%	114	+2.3	235/308/436	201	261	27	3	21%	9%	108	+1.9	222/300/417	195	243	27	1	21%	9%	95	+0.7
●Max Kepler 2020 · MLB	27	45→55	60	37→50	56	242/326/463	221	249	27	4	17%	10%	121	+2.9	231/320/431	200	246	24	8	18%	11%	112	+2.2	231/319/413	182	254	22	6	19%	10%	104	+1.3
●Jay Gibbons 2004 · MLB	27	50→54	57→60	36→30	52	263/321/462	199	267	24	2	13%	8%	119	+2.7	265/319/453	188	276	22	2	14%	7%	116	+2.5	266/320/456	190	275	23	0	13%	7%	113	+1.6
✕Mike Carp 2012 · MLB	26	47→54	56→55	41→40	45	247/306/434	187	291	25	4	25%	7%	107	+1.9	241/310/401	160	302	18	5	25%	8%	101	+1.4	224/304/359	135	287	13	2	25%	9%	86	+0.1
●Daniel Vogelbach 2020 · MLB	27	43→51	59→60	42→40	60	231/339/436	204	265	27	2	24%	14%	120	+2.8	232/349/425	193	276	25	2	24%	15%	121	+2.9	238/357/415	177	289	23	0	24%	15%	118	+1.6
●Karim Garcia 2004 · MLB	28	50→52	60	34→50	44	269/308/474	205	290	31	3	20%	5%	118	+2.6	243/289/410	167	269	22	7	19%	6%	95	+1.0	282/330/462	180	323	20	10	19%	6%	120	+1.5
✕Devin Mesoraco 2015 · MLB	27	48→50	56→60	35→40	50	250/324/439	189	282	24	3	21%	8%	115	+2.4	231/315/393	162	271	19	6	22%	9%	101	+1.4	210/302/369	159	235	21	1	21%	9%	86	+0.1
●Pedro Álvarez 2013 · MLB	26	45→47	57→65	44→45	47	237/309/431	195	307	25	3	31%	9%	107	+1.9	242/312/465	223	294	32	5	28%	9%	117	+2.6	240/313/469	230	281	34	5	28%	9%	110	+1.8
●Kila Ka'aihue 2010 · MLB	26	44→50	53→55	41→30	59	230/325/402	171	250	22	2	19%	12%	107	+1.8	234/321/401	167	278	21	3	23%	11%	105	+1.7	231/317/400	169	275	22	2	24%	11%	102	+1.3
✕Preston Tucker 2016 · MLB	26	45→46	53→55	40	44	239/288/412	173	276	22	3	23%	6%	95	+1.0	217/271/377	160	261	19	3	24%	6%	80	-0.1	230/306/378	148	272	15	1	21%	8%	93	+0.4
✕Hee-Seop Choi 2006 · MLB	27	48→49	55	40→30	57	248/347/442	194	293	22	3	23%	12%	124	+3.1	222/309/373	151	269	17	5	23%	10%	94	+0.9	170/267/280	110	208	13	0	24%	11%	57	-0.8
✕Jordan Luplow 2022 · MLB	28	43→48	59→65	39→50	57	230/333/450	220	271	26	6	26%	13%	121	+2.9	211/297/394	183	245	24	11	25%	10%	95	+1.0	198/281/362	165	227	22	13	24%	9%	80	-0.1
✕Tommy Joseph 2017 · MLB	26	46→47	57→60	40→30	44	245/291/435	190	265	26	3	20%	5%	102	+1.5	237/289/418	181	281	23	3	24%	6%	97	+1.1	231/284/414	183	273	24	1	25%	6%	93	+0.6
✕Austin Allen 2020 · MLB	26	45→53	56→60	38→40	41	240/286/431	191	285	25	2	26%	5%	99	+1.3	238/281/414	176	292	23	3	26%	5%	93	+0.8	212/264/382	170	253	23	0	27%	5%	76	-0.2
●Joc Pederson 2019 · MLB	27	44→52	60→65	40→55	54	237/323/466	230	260	27	5	22%	10%	121	+2.9	241/323/477	236	263	31	4	22%	9%	124	+3.1	263/368/494	232	301	30	5	22%	12%	137	+2.9
✕Cody Decker 2013 · AAA	26	38→39	58→65	38→30	42	214/275/416	202	268	27	3	32%	7%	92	+0.7	200/263/381	181	276	23	2	35%	7%	79	-0.2	182/253/337	156	264	21	0	38%	8%	65	-0.4

Career Stats + Projections

Career Comps

Career Path Comps