Nathaniel Lowe — OGILVIE

Nathaniel Lowe1B Cincinnati Reds

Age 31 L/R 6'4" / 220 lbs MLB HR +6% Svc 5.843 · Ctrl thru 2026

2026 ROS PROJECTION224 act + 355 ros · stats below = ROS only

wRC+†vL 93121vR 131

AVG/OBP/SLG.260 / .347 / .437

PA355

HR13

K%25

BB%11

BABIP324

ISO177

MLB%100%

Value2026 · WAR

trajectory · projected WAR by year

Tools · Splits · ContractCON 50 / POW 45

Toolsscout grade · Statcast %ile · 2024-2026

CONTACT50

Whiff%

847.4%

xwOBA

620.323

POWER45

Barrel%

427.2

Avg EV

4788.9

Bat Spd

8074.5

EYE60

Chase%

9022.8%

SPEED40

Sprint

1625.8

Platoon Splits2024-2026 · 1208 PA

vs LHP

vs RHP

Edge

315

893

—

wRC+

117

▶▶R

wOBA

288

338

▶R

ISO

102

166

▶▶R

BABIP

307

305

—

28.3%

22.5%

▶▶R

BB%

11.7%

10.9%

◀L

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status Arb-3

MLB Debut 2019

Service 5.843 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2026

First FA Year 2027

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026ROS	Ext	$0.7M	+1.0	$8M	+$7M
Totals		$0.7M		$8M	+$7M

Career Stats + Projections

Viewactual = stats as recorded (prior seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2017	22	A	2 teams	—	472	420	93	18	1	6	46	148	2	1	2	221	301	312	613	90	322	31	10	274	68	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	22	A	2 teams	—	472	402	110	23	1	7	64	105	2	1	2	274	376	388	764	114	350	22	14	346	123	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	23	AA	3 teams	—	555	508	150	28	1	29	42	114	4	1	1	295	354	526	879	230	331	21	8	377	147	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	23	AA	3 teams	—	555	482	159	32	1	27	68	90	4	1	1	330	417	568	985	239	361	16	12	430	187	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	24	AAA	2 teams	—	575	504	124	28	0	19	62	145	6	1	0	246	336	415	750	169	306	25	11	328	109	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	24	AAA	2 teams	—	575	481	135	32	0	23	85	132	6	1	0	281	395	491	886	210	340	23	15	391	158	—	—	—	—	—	—
2020	25	MLB	2 teams	—	97	85	19	3	0	5	11	36	0	1	0	224	312	435	748	212	311	37	11	315	99	-0	+0	-0	-2	+3	0.1
2020	25	MLB	2 teams	—	97	83	18	3	0	4	13	31	0	1	0	217	323	398	721	181	286	32	13	322	104	+0	+0	-0	-2	+3	0.1
2021	26	MLB	Texas Rangers	—	642	557	146	24	3	18	80	162	2	8	0	262	357	413	770	151	337	25	12	337	116	+12	+2	-9	-11	+18	1.2
2021	26	MLB	Texas Rangers	—	642	557	147	24	3	18	80	162	2	8	0	264	358	415	773	151	339	25	12	347	124	+17	+2	-9	-11	+18	1.7
2022	27	MLB	Texas Rangers	—	645	593	177	26	3	26	48	147	4	2	2	298	355	484	839	185	360	23	7	365	137	+27	-0	-14	-12	+18	2.0
2022	27	MLB	Texas Rangers	—	645	593	179	26	3	27	48	147	4	2	2	302	358	492	851	191	363	23	7	375	145	+33	-0	-14	-12	+18	2.6
2023	28	MLB	Texas Rangers	—	724	623	161	37	3	17	93	165	5	1	0	258	359	409	769	151	324	23	13	340	118	+15	+0	-4	-13	+21	1.9
2023	28	MLB	Texas Rangers	—	724	623	163	38	3	17	93	165	5	1	0	262	362	414	776	152	329	23	13	349	125	+21	+0	-4	-13	+21	2.5
2024	29	MLB	Texas Rangers	—	565	486	128	16	1	16	71	125	4	2	0	263	362	399	761	136	321	22	13	336	116	+10	+0	-0	-10	+16	1.6
2024	29	MLB	Texas Rangers	—	565	486	129	16	1	16	71	125	4	2	0	265	364	401	765	136	324	22	13	345	122	+14	+0	-0	-10	+16	2.0
2025	30	MLB	Boston Red Sox	—	609	540	120	21	4	18	62	159	2	1	0	222	305	376	681	154	277	26	10	295	84	-11	+0	-9	-11	+17	-1.4
2025	30	MLB	Boston Red Sox	—	609	540	123	23	3	18	62	159	2	1	0	228	310	381	691	154	285	26	10	309	94	-4	+0	-9	-11	+17	-0.6
▸ 2026 Season (ACT · ROS-MLE · ROS-CTX · FULL)
YTD	31	MLB	CIN	—	224	198	49	13	0	10	26	60	0	0	0	247	335	465	799	217	305	27	12	346	123	+6	+0	+0	-4	+6	0.9
YTD	31	MLB	CIN	—	224	198	49	13	0	10	26	60	0	0	0	247	335	465	799	217	305	27	12	353	129	+7	+0	+0	-4	+6	1.0
ROS	31	MLB	CIN	100%	355	311	81	14	1	13	40	90	1	1	0	260	347	437	784	177	327	25	11	349	125	+10	+0	+2	-6	+10	1.6
ROS	31	MLB	CIN	100%	355	311	83	15	1	13	40	90	1	1	0	267	352	447	799	180	330	25	11	350	126	+11	+0	+2	-6	+10	1.7
FULL	31	MLB	CIN	—	579	509	132	28	1	23	66	150	1	1	0	259	345	454	799	194	322	26	11	349	125	+16	+0	+2	-10	+16	2.6
TOT	31	MLB	CIN	—	579	509	130	27	1	23	66	150	1	1	0	255	342	448	790	193	317	26	11	348	124	+16	+0	+2	-10	+16	2.5
▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘPARK-NEUTRAL MLE · ALL-LEVEL PT ⓘ
2027	32	MLB	CIN	100%	597	523	135	23	2	21	67	154	2	1	0	258	345	430	775	172	324	26	11	343	121	+14	+0	+0	-11	+17	2.1
2028	33	MLB	CIN	100%	523	459	115	19	2	17	58	137	1	1	0	251	336	412	748	161	318	26	11	335	114	+8	+0	-1	-9	+15	1.3
2029	34	MLB	CIN	100%	475	418	101	16	1	15	53	128	1	1	0	242	328	392	721	151	309	27	11	324	106	+3	+0	-2	-8	+13	0.7
2027	32	MLB	CIN	100%	597	523	137	24	2	21	67	154	2	1	0	262	348	436	784	174	328	26	11	345	122	+15	+0	+0	-11	+17	2.2
2028	33	MLB	CIN	100%	523	459	118	20	2	18	58	137	1	1	0	257	342	427	769	170	321	26	11	337	116	+9	+0	-1	-9	+15	1.4
2029	34	MLB	CIN	100%	475	418	102	16	1	16	53	128	1	1	0	244	331	402	732	158	312	27	11	326	108	+4	+0	-2	-8	+13	0.7
▸ Career Totals
Career	—			—	5380	4729	1236	212	19	175	594	1345	24	19	2	261	347	425	772	164	328	25	11	343	121	+125	+3	-42	-104	+152	13.8
/ 162G	—			—	650	571	149	26	2	21	72	162	3	2	0	261	347	424	771	163	327	25	11	343	121	+15	+0	-5	-13	+18	1.7
Career	—			—	6834	6027	1550	273	22	220	733	1710	34	22	5	257	341	419	760	162	322	25	11	334	114	+107	+2	-42	-122	+194	14.2
/ 162G	—			—	650	573	147	26	2	21	70	163	3	2	0	257	341	419	759	162	321	25	11	334	114	+10	+0	-4	-12	+18	1.4

Historical Stats — Raw (Per Stint)

Actual MLB + MiLB stats as they happened, one row per stint at each level. Use this to see what really got recorded; the table above shows MLB-equivalent translations + projections.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2017	22	A+	Charlotte Stone Crabs	—	203	173	43	10	1	2	28	52	1	1	1	249	356	353	709	104	342	26	14	325	107	+2	-0	—	—	+6	0.7
2017	22	A	Bowling Green Hot Rods	—	269	229	67	13	0	5	36	53	1	0	1	293	391	415	806	122	356	20	13	362	135	+11	-0	—	—	+8	1.8
2018	23	AAA	Durham Bulls	—	110	100	26	6	1	4	8	27	2	0	0	260	327	460	787	200	319	25	7	348	124	+3	+0	—	—	+3	0.6
2018	23	AA	Montgomery Biscuits	—	225	188	64	11	0	13	35	30	1	1	1	340	446	606	1.053	266	349	13	16	456	207	+27	-0	—	—	+6	3.4
2018	23	A+	Charlotte Stone Crabs	—	220	194	69	15	0	10	25	33	1	0	0	356	432	588	1.019	232	391	15	11	446	199	+25	+0	—	—	+6	3.2
2019	24	MLB	Tampa Bay Rays	—	169	152	40	8	0	7	13	50	2	0	0	263	329	454	783	191	340	30	8	343	121	+4	+0	-4	-10	+5	-0.6
2019	24	AAA	Durham Bulls	—	406	329	95	24	0	16	72	82	4	1	0	289	422	508	930	219	341	20	18	411	173	+34	+0	—	—	+12	4.6
2020	25	MLB	Tampa Bay Rays	—	76	67	15	2	0	4	9	28	0	1	0	224	316	433	749	209	314	37	12	333	113	+1	+0	-0	-2	+2	0.1
2020	25	INTL	Leones del Escogido	—	21	16	3	1	0	0	4	3	0	0	0	188	350	250	600	62	214	14	19	280	73	-1	+0	—	—	+1	-0.0
2021	26	MLB	Texas Rangers	—	642	557	147	24	3	18	80	162	2	8	0	264	358	415	773	151	339	25	12	347	124	+17	+2	-9	-11	+18	1.7
2022	27	MLB	Texas Rangers	—	645	593	179	26	3	27	48	147	4	2	2	302	358	492	851	191	363	23	7	375	145	+33	-0	-14	-12	+18	2.6
2023	28	MLB	Texas Rangers	—	724	623	163	38	3	17	93	165	5	1	0	262	362	414	776	152	329	23	13	349	125	+21	+0	-4	-13	+21	2.5
2024	29	MLB	Texas Rangers	—	565	486	129	16	1	16	71	125	4	2	0	265	364	401	765	136	324	22	13	345	122	+14	+0	-0	-10	+16	2.0
2025	30	MLB	Boston Red Sox	—	609	540	123	23	3	18	62	159	2	1	0	228	310	381	691	154	285	26	10	309	94	-4	+0	-9	-11	+17	-0.6
▸ Career Totals (raw MLB only — historical actual)
MLB Career	—			—	3430	3018	796	137	13	107	376	836	19	15	2	264	349	424	773	160	329	24	11	345	122	+86	+2	-41	-69	+97	7.7

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Top row of each card is career totals; bottom row is per-162-game rates. Pool: 727 completed hitter careers (2000-2024).

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	YRS	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Brandon Beltlast yr '23 career totals — 13 seasons, 5,483 PA	13	5,483	194	47	261	357	460	-96	-62	19.3	18.2
	/162	664	23	6	261	357	460	-11.7	-7.5	2.3	pk7: 17
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 12 projected seasons	12	5,828	188	20	259	341	424	-104	-92	16.4	15.3
	/162	664	21	2	259	341	424	-11.9	-10.5	1.9	pk7: 14
#2Kevin Millarlast yr '09 career totals — 10 seasons, 4,972 PA	10	4,972	161	6	273	357	454	-74	-93	13.7	13.9
	/162	664	22	1	273	357	454	-9.8	-12.5	1.8	pk7: 14
#3Adam LaRochelast yr '15 career totals — 12 seasons, 6,329 PA	12	6,329	255	13	260	336	462	-113	-125	10.7	12.1
	/162	664	27	1	260	336	462	-11.9	-13.1	1.1	pk7: 13
#4Adam Lindlast yr '17 career totals — 12 seasons, 5,029 PA	12	5,029	200	7	272	330	465	-76	-76	11.6	11.8
#4Adam Lindlast yr '17 career totals — 12 seasons, 5,029 PA	/162	664	26	1	272	330	465	-10.0	-10.1	1.5	pk7: 12
#5Lyle Overbaylast yr '14 career totals — 12 seasons, 5,790 PA	12	5,790	151	19	266	348	429	-103	-102	8.8	10.3
	/162	664	17	2	266	348	429	-11.9	-11.7	1.0	pk7: 12
#6Trey Mancinilast yr '23 career totals — 6 seasons, 3,367 PA	6	3,367	126	2	262	327	445	-47	-48	6.3	6.3
	/162	664	25	0	262	327	445	-9.2	-9.4	1.2	pk7: 6

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Nathaniel Lowe (OGILVIE)	31	50	45	40	60	255/342/448	193	317	23	1	26%	11%	124	+2.5	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Ji Man Choi 2022 · MLB	31	48→50	54→55	42→45	58	241/345/427	185	303	20	3	26%	13%	122	+3.3	223/321/395	172	299	20	3	30%	12%	105	+2.1	205/309/372	167	274	20	0	31%	13%	90	+0.4
✕Michael Saunders 2018 · MLB	31	45→52	51→55	42→55	47	232/297/401	169	289	18	3	26%	8%	95	+1.4	208/271/334	126	265	13	7	25%	8%	67	-0.5	125/198/178	54	167	4	7	26%	8%	-6	-1.4
✕Yoshi Tsutsugo 2023 · MLB	31	44→43	51→50	39→30	52	225/307/380	155	281	19	2	27%	11%	95	+1.4	230/320/383	153	314	18	7	30%	11%	101	+1.8	216/328/374	158	307	19	5	32%	14%	99	+0.8
●Kevin Barker 2007 · MLB	32	46→47	52→55	43→40	47	238/301/412	174	297	20	5	26%	8%	100	+1.7	231/295/395	164	285	20	3	25%	8%	93	+1.3	258/324/436	178	298	19	1	20%	8%	115	+1.8
●Emmanuel Valdez 2010 · AAA	31	48→52	51→55	38→40	52	245/324/402	157	296	19	3	23%	10%	107	+2.2	243/318/407	164	311	20	4	27%	9%	105	+2.1	232/308/395	163	304	21	2	29%	9%	96	+0.9
✕Kila Ka'aihue 2015 · MLB	31	45→50	55→60	44→30	51	239/315/423	184	277	23	5	23%	9%	109	+2.4	200/279/313	113	243	12	5	22%	9%	65	-0.7	163/254/249	86	195	10	0	21%	10%	37	-1.6
✕Jake Lamb 2022 · MLB	31	39→49	51→60	44→45	52	208/302/369	161	259	19	4	27%	11%	90	+1.0	229/308/385	156	303	19	3	29%	9%	96	+1.5	225/304/365	140	298	16	1	28%	8%	87	+0.6
✕Jason Kubel 2014 · MLB	32	47→57	53→60	41→40	49	241/314/417	176	305	21	3	27%	10%	107	+2.2	233/311/359	126	330	13	6	30%	10%	90	+1.0	224/312/294	70	354	3	3	34%	11%	69	-0.1
●Yonder Alonso 2018 · MLB	31	53→60	54→55	43→45	57	269/349/449	181	300	21	4	18%	11%	129	+3.7	237/317/405	168	273	22	3	21%	10%	105	+2.1	223/304/375	152	255	20	0	21%	10%	88	+0.7
●Mario Valdez 2007 · AAA	32	49	52→50	43→40	55	251/327/413	162	275	20	3	18%	10%	111	+2.5	273/347/423	150	298	16	4	14%	9%	121	+3.2	289/364/432	143	313	14	2	12%	10%	129	+2.0
●Yadiel Hernandez 2019 · AAA	31	51→55	48→55	45	48	256/314/398	141	307	17	6	22%	8%	101	+1.8	258/315/436	178	322	24	7	26%	8%	112	+2.6	266/321/441	175	324	25	6	25%	7%	113	+1.8
✕Clint Robinson 2016 · MLB	31	50→60	49→55	45→40	52	250/322/400	149	293	16	2	20%	9%	105	+2.1	227/290/364	137	275	17	3	23%	8%	82	+0.5	206/265/333	127	251	17	0	25%	7%	62	-0.5
✕John Rodriguez 2009 · MLB	31	47	49→55	45→40	47	234/310/385	151	297	17	4	26%	8%	97	+1.5	221/290/372	151	270	17	5	24%	7%	85	+0.7	209/280/361	152	250	17	2	23%	6%	77	+0.1
✕Ben Gamel 2023 · MLB	31	49→59	47→50	43→50	54	238/328/381	142	303	13	7	24%	11%	103	+1.9	236/330/383	147	321	15	7	28%	12%	105	+2.1	228/330/376	148	321	15	6	31%	13%	99	+0.8
●Dan Johnson 2012 · MLB	32	43→53	54→60	43→30	57	227/316/401	174	249	22	2	20%	11%	104	+2.0	230/316/418	188	249	25	2	20%	10%	108	+2.3	220/312/406	186	237	26	1	20%	11%	104	+1.9
●Matt Joyce 2015 · MLB	30	48→53	50→60	40→50	58	242/337/405	163	284	18	6	21%	12%	113	+2.6	232/337/407	175	277	20	4	22%	13%	115	+2.7	238/352/447	209	270	25	3	21%	15%	125	+2.2
✕Carlos González 2017 · MLB	31	46→56	54→60	45→55	48	243/299/422	179	275	22	3	21%	7%	102	+1.8	235/303/380	145	287	15	5	23%	9%	92	+1.2	225/300/356	130	281	13	4	23%	9%	80	+0.2
✕Ricky Ledee 2004 · MLB	30	47	54→60	42→50	57	241/330/434	192	275	21	4	21%	12%	118	+3.0	247/326/422	175	291	19	6	21%	10%	113	+2.6	237/306/382	145	288	17	3	23%	8%	90	+0.5
✕Paul McAnulty 2012 · MLB	31	46→50	52→60	41→40	45	238/289/404	166	277	21	4	23%	6%	92	+1.2	231/302/424	193	277	25	5	26%	9%	104	+2.0	208/298/429	221	235	30	1	27%	10%	103	+1.6
●Aaron Guiel 2004 · MLB	31	51→53	52→60	35→45	49	257/327/431	173	289	18	5	18%	7%	116	+2.8	233/312/415	182	267	22	6	21%	8%	106	+2.2	219/307/407	188	249	24	4	23%	8%	100	+1.3