Nathaniel Lowe — OGILVIE

Nathaniel Lowe1B Cincinnati Reds

Age 31 L/R 6'4" / 220 lbs MLB HR +9%K -4% Svc 5.843 · Ctrl thru 2026 peak 0.7 · 2026

wRC+†vL 76110vR 111

AVG/OBP/SLG.248 / .335 / .404

PA579

HR17

K%24

BB%11

MLB%100%

Scouting · now → future

HIT

50→50

PWR

45→45

SPD

40→40

EYE

60→60

trajectory · 10 yrs

1.3peak

2026

Contract

ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status Arb-3

MLB Debut 2019

Service 5.843 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2026

First FA Year 2027

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	Arb-3	$2M	+0.7	$3M	+$1M
Totals		$2M		$3M	+$1M

Career Projections (MLE)

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2017	22	A	2 teams	472	420	96	18	1	6	46	142	2	1	2	.229	.308	.319	.627	.090	.326	30	10	.280	73	-15	-1	+0	-8	+13	-1.1
2018	23	AA	3 teams	555	507	148	29	1	27	43	116	4	1	1	.292	.352	.513	.865	.221	.332	21	8	.370	142	+26	-0	+0	-10	+16	3.2
2019	24	AAA	2 teams	575	504	125	28	0	20	62	147	6	1	0	.248	.337	.423	.760	.175	.309	26	11	.331	112	+8	+0	-4	-10	+16	1.0
2020	25	MLB	2 teams	97	85	20	3	0	5	11	36	0	1	0	.235	.323	.447	.770	.212	.333	37	11	.327	109	+1	+0	-0	-2	+3	0.2
2021	26	MLB	Texas Rangers	642	557	146	25	3	17	80	162	2	8	0	.262	.357	.409	.766	.147	.339	25	12	.338	117	+12	+2	-9	-11	+18	1.2
2022	27	MLB	Texas Rangers	645	593	181	26	3	27	48	147	4	2	2	.305	.361	.496	.857	.191	.368	23	7	.370	141	+30	-0	-14	-12	+18	2.3
2023	28	MLB	Texas Rangers	724	623	160	38	4	13	93	165	5	1	0	.257	.358	.393	.751	.136	.328	23	13	.332	112	+10	+0	-4	-13	+21	1.4
2024	29	MLB	Texas Rangers	565	486	129	16	1	15	71	125	4	2	0	.265	.364	.395	.759	.130	.326	22	13	.336	115	+10	+0	-0	-10	+16	1.6
2025	30	MLB	Boston Red Sox	609	540	121	22	3	18	62	159	2	1	0	.224	.306	.376	.682	.152	.280	26	10	.297	86	-10	+0	-9	-11	+17	-1.3
▸ 2026 Season (actual · ROS · total)
2026	31	MLB	Cincinnati Reds	34	30	7	3	0	0	4	7	0	0	0	.233	.324	.333	.657	.100	.304	21	12	.299	87	-1	+0	+0	-1	+1	-0.0
ROS	31	MLB	CIN	545	476	118	23	2	15	61	131	3	2	1	.248	.337	.399	.736	.151	.308	24	11	.330	111	+7	+0	-5	-10	+15	0.7
TOT	31	MLB	CIN	579	506	125	26	2	15	65	138	3	2	1	.247	.336	.395	.731	.148	.309	24	11	.329	110	+6	+0	-5	-10	+16	0.7
▸ 2027+ Projections — Projections at projected PA · Park-neutral MLB equivalent · Marcel + aging curve
2027	32	MLB	CIN	560	489	119	23	2	15	63	128	3	0	0	.243	.333	.391	.724	.147	.299	23	11	.326	107	+5	+0	-9	-10	+16	0.1
2028	33	MLB	CIN	530	464	112	21	2	14	59	125	2	0	0	.241	.330	.386	.715	.144	.297	24	11	.320	103	+2	+0	-10	-9	+15	-0.2
2029	34	MLB	CIN	482	424	100	19	2	12	53	118	2	0	0	.236	.324	.375	.699	.139	.295	24	11	.313	98	-1	+0	-10	-9	+14	-0.6
2030	35	MLB	CIN	426	374	86	16	2	10	47	108	2	0	0	.230	.319	.364	.683	.134	.293	25	11	.306	92	-4	+0	-10	-8	+12	-0.9
▸ Career Totals (MLE all levels + projections)
Career	—			7427	6542	1661	307	26	214	799	1809	41	20	6	.254	.339	.407	.746	.153	.318	24	11	.329	110	+81	+2	-85	-133	+210	7.6
/ 162G	—			650	573	145	27	2	19	70	158	4	2	1	.253	.339	.407	.746	.154	.316	24	11	.329	110	+7	+0	-7	-12	+18	0.7

Historical Stats — Raw (Per Stint)

Actual MLB + MiLB stats as they happened, one row per stint at each level. Use this to see what really got recorded; the table above shows MLB-equivalent translations + projections.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2017	22	A+	Charlotte Stone Crabs	203	173	43	10	1	2	28	52	1	1	1	.249	.356	.353	.709	.104	.342	26	14	.325	107	+2	-0	—	—	+6	0.7
2017	22	A	Bowling Green Hot Rods	269	229	67	13	0	5	36	53	1	0	1	.293	.391	.415	.806	.122	.356	20	13	.362	135	+11	-0	—	—	+8	1.8
2018	23	AAA	Durham Bulls	110	100	26	6	1	4	8	27	2	0	0	.260	.327	.460	.787	.200	.319	25	7	.348	124	+3	+0	—	—	+3	0.6
2018	23	AA	Montgomery Biscuits	225	188	64	11	0	13	35	30	1	1	1	.340	.446	.606	1.053	.266	.349	13	16	.456	207	+27	-0	—	—	+6	3.4
2018	23	A+	Charlotte Stone Crabs	220	194	69	15	0	10	25	33	1	0	0	.356	.432	.588	1.019	.232	.391	15	11	.446	199	+25	+0	—	—	+6	3.2
2019	24	MLB	Tampa Bay Rays	169	152	40	8	0	7	13	50	2	0	0	.263	.329	.454	.783	.191	.340	30	8	.343	121	+4	+0	-4	-10	+5	-0.6
2019	24	AAA	Durham Bulls	406	329	95	24	0	16	72	82	4	1	0	.289	.422	.508	.930	.219	.341	20	18	.411	173	+34	+0	—	—	+12	4.6
2020	25	MLB	Tampa Bay Rays	76	67	15	2	0	4	9	28	0	1	0	.224	.316	.433	.749	.209	.314	37	12	.333	113	+1	+0	-0	-2	+2	0.1
2020	25	INTL	Leones del Escogido	21	16	3	1	0	0	4	3	0	0	0	.188	.350	.250	.600	.062	.214	14	19	.280	73	-1	+0	—	—	+1	-0.0
2021	26	MLB	Texas Rangers	642	557	147	24	3	18	80	162	2	8	0	.264	.358	.415	.773	.151	.339	25	12	.347	124	+17	+2	-9	-11	+18	1.7
2022	27	MLB	Texas Rangers	645	593	179	26	3	27	48	147	4	2	2	.302	.358	.492	.851	.191	.363	23	7	.375	145	+33	-0	-14	-12	+18	2.6
2023	28	MLB	Texas Rangers	724	623	163	38	3	17	93	165	5	1	0	.262	.362	.414	.776	.152	.329	23	13	.349	125	+21	+0	-4	-13	+21	2.5
2024	29	MLB	Texas Rangers	565	486	129	16	1	16	71	125	4	2	0	.265	.364	.401	.765	.136	.324	22	13	.345	122	+14	+0	-0	-10	+16	2.1
2025	30	MLB	Boston Red Sox	609	540	123	23	3	18	62	159	2	1	0	.228	.310	.381	.691	.154	.285	26	10	.309	94	-4	+0	-9	-11	+17	-0.7
▸ Career Totals (raw MLB only — historical actual)
MLB Career	—			3430	3018	796	137	13	107	376	836	19	15	2	.264	.349	.424	.773	.160	.329	24	11	.345	122	+86	+2	-42	-69	+97	7.7

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Nathaniel Lowe (OGILVIE)	31	50	45	40	60	.246/.334/.399	.152	.300	16	2	22%	11%	111	+2.4	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Yonder Alonso 2018 · MLB	31	52→57	51→55	42→45	57	.263/.343/.426	.164	.294	18	4	18%	11%	121	+3.2	.240/.319/.408	.168	.277	21	3	21%	10%	107	+2.2	.225/.306/.379	.154	.259	20	0	21%	10%	88	+0.7
✕Ben Gamel 2023 · MLB	31	49→59	47→50	42→50	54	.239/.329/.382	.143	.305	14	6	25%	11%	104	+2.0	.237/.328/.387	.150	.315	16	7	27%	11%	105	+2.1	.230/.327/.384	.153	.318	16	6	30%	12%	100	+0.8
✕Clint Robinson 2016 · MLB	31	49→58	48→55	44→40	52	.247/.319/.393	.146	.290	15	2	20%	9%	102	+1.9	.229/.294/.364	.135	.277	16	3	23%	8%	85	+0.7	.207/.268/.335	.128	.255	17	0	25%	7%	63	-0.5
✕Troy O'Leary 2001 · MLB	31	52→53	48→50	41→30	53	.256/.316/.406	.150	.277	15	3	14%	8%	104	+2.0	.252/.317/.404	.152	.284	15	4	17%	8%	104	+2.0	.247/.317/.392	.145	.281	14	3	17%	8%	94	+0.6
✕Armando Rios 2003 · MLB	31	52	50→55	45	53	.258/.327/.421	.162	.296	16	6	19%	9%	112	+2.6	.239/.296/.364	.125	.271	13	7	17%	7%	85	+0.7	.206/.241/.290	.084	.217	11	0	12%	4%	40	-0.5
✕Michael Saunders 2018 · MLB	31	45→52	51→55	42→55	47	.230/.298/.398	.167	.287	19	3	26%	8%	95	+1.4	.210/.274/.339	.129	.266	13	7	25%	8%	69	-0.4	.132/.208/.194	.062	.174	5	7	26%	9%	2	-1.3
✕Shane Spencer 2003 · MLB	31	51→50	49→50	42→45	51	.254/.320/.406	.153	.289	16	5	18%	8%	106	+2.2	.253/.324/.394	.141	.300	15	7	20%	9%	105	+2.1	.256/.328/.392	.136	.304	15	7	20%	9%	104	+1.1
✕Christian Marrero 2017 · AA	31	49→54	47→50	44→50	54	.244/.322/.381	.136	.291	14	4	21%	10%	101	+1.8	.239/.316/.377	.138	.285	15	5	21%	8%	97	+1.5	.237/.317/.382	.145	.271	18	0	19%	7%	98	+0.7
✕John Rodriguez 2009 · MLB	31	48→47	49→55	46→40	47	.237/.314/.388	.150	.301	16	4	26%	8%	99	+1.7	.223/.292/.377	.154	.274	17	5	25%	7%	88	+0.9	.210/.281/.366	.156	.252	17	2	23%	6%	79	+0.1
●Kole Calhoun 2019 · MLB	31	47→56	50→60	46→50	54	.239/.319/.396	.157	.278	18	5	21%	10%	103	+1.9	.231/.318/.439	.208	.265	27	5	24%	10%	115	+2.7	.229/.322/.456	.227	.256	31	3	24%	11%	114	+1.6
●Yadiel Hernandez 2019 · AAA	31	52→56	48→55	46→45	48	.260/.316/.398	.138	.314	16	6	22%	8%	102	+1.9	.258/.314/.433	.175	.320	24	7	26%	8%	111	+2.5	.265/.320/.440	.174	.320	24	6	24%	7%	113	+1.7
●Matt Joyce 2016 · MLB	31	46→56	48→60	38→50	56	.230/.323/.377	.147	.275	15	5	22%	11%	100	+1.7	.234/.342/.420	.186	.275	22	4	22%	14%	119	+3.1	.231/.347/.434	.202	.261	25	3	21%	15%	118	+1.9
●Emmanuel Valdez 2010 · AAA	31	48→53	51→55	39→40	52	.244/.325/.403	.158	.295	19	3	24%	10%	108	+2.3	.249/.325/.414	.165	.313	20	3	26%	9%	111	+2.5	.241/.318/.405	.164	.309	21	2	28%	9%	103	+1.2
✕Enrique Hernández 2023 · MLB	31	46→55	49→60	40→45	53	.233/.309/.393	.160	.265	16	2	19%	9%	98	+1.6	.230/.290/.366	.136	.268	15	4	20%	8%	83	+0.6	.223/.278/.354	.131	.261	16	2	21%	7%	73	-0.1
✕Ji Man Choi 2022 · MLB	31	49→51	54→60	42→45	58	.246/.349/.432	.186	.306	21	3	25%	13%	124	+3.4	.228/.326/.398	.170	.306	19	3	29%	12%	107	+2.2	.209/.311/.374	.165	.278	20	0	30%	12%	88	+0.4
✕Daniel Fornes 2010 · AAA	30	52→56	47→50	43→40	53	.258/.326/.396	.138	.277	15	4	14%	8%	106	+2.2	.238/.293/.362	.124	.261	14	5	15%	7%	83	+0.6	.222/.275/.333	.111	.241	13	3	14%	6%	70	-0.2
●Scott Hatteberg 2001 · MLB	31	51→61	51→50	43→30	62	.258/.351/.426	.167	.281	18	5	15%	13%	124	+3.4	.259/.348/.397	.138	.274	13	3	11%	11%	115	+2.8	.269/.359/.406	.137	.277	14	0	9%	11%	119	+3.1
✕Yoshi Tsutsugo 2023 · MLB	31	42→41	51→50	40→30	52	.220/.305/.375	.155	.275	19	2	27%	11%	92	+1.2	.224/.315/.372	.148	.311	17	6	31%	11%	95	+1.4	.208/.320/.357	.149	.306	18	5	34%	13%	91	+0.5
●Chris Richard 2005 · MLB	31	47→53	50→60	40→50	50	.239/.306/.397	.158	.272	17	7	19%	8%	98	+1.6	.237/.305/.396	.159	.289	18	8	24%	8%	97	+1.5	.233/.305/.418	.185	.287	22	8	26%	7%	103	+1.4
✕Robert Fick 2004 · MLB	30	53→54	51→55	40	54	.267/.332/.433	.166	.282	18	2	13%	8%	118	+3.0	.249/.320/.381	.132	.271	14	4	14%	9%	99	+1.7	.254/.329/.344	.090	.293	9	3	15%	9%	89	+0.4

Contract

Career Projections (MLE) Show advanced cols

Historical Stats — Raw (Per Stint)

Career Path Comps

Career Projections (MLE)