Nathaniel Lowe

1B Cleveland Guardians
Age 32 L/R 6'4" / 220 lbs MLB Svc 6.843 · Ctrl thru 2027
Overview
MLB40-MANExt / FA-dealFA 2028
YearAgeLvl / TeamPAAVG/OBP/SLGHRSBwRC+WAR
202429MLBTEX565.265/.364/.4011621151.3
202530MLBBOS609.228/.310/.38118190-1.4
202631MLBCLE429.252/.323/.4441701100.7
2027PROJ32MLBCLE403.250/.325/.4271421110.9
2028PROJ33MLBCLE451.241/.316/.4071521030.2
Last 3 seasons WAR 0.6  ·  Next 2 projected WAR 1.2Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.
ContractESTIMATED
Control thru2027Service6.843First FA2028
2027Ext / FA-deal$7M
Skills · percentileStatcast 2024-2026
Bat Spd80
xwOBA61
Avg EV50
Barrel%40
Speed12
Form.255/.323/.427 · rolling true talent (60d window) · proj .249/.322/.426
CompsYadiel Hernandez (age 32) · Yonder Alonso (age 32) · Ji Man Choi (age 31)
2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONstats below = full-season projection
showingPROJ
wRC+†vL 82111vR 122
AVG/OBP/SLG.250 / .325 / .427
PA403
HR14
K%24
BB%9
BABIP297
ISO172
MLB%100%
Value2027 · WAR
BAT: +5.3 runs (wOBA-derived runs vs avg)+5BATRUN: -0.7 runs (SB/CS + UBR baserunning)-1RUNFLD: +2.4 runs (Defensive runs vs avg)+2FLDPOS: -7.2 runs (Positional adjustment)-7POSREP: +8.7 runs (Replacement-level credit)+9REPTotal WAR: +0.80+0.8WAR
trajectory · projected WAR by year
0.80.22728
Tools · Recent Form · Splits · ContractCON 50 / POW 45
Toolsscout grade · Statcast %ile · 2024-2026
CONTACT50
xAVG
440.247
POWER45
Barrel%
407.0
Avg EV
5089.1
Bat Spd
8074.5
EYE60
scouting grade only
SPEED40
Sprint
1225.6
Recent Formrolling true talent ⓘ
K%21%▲▲18% over 76 PA (60d) · proj 24%
BB%9%▼8% over 76 PA (60d) · proj 9%
ISO.172·.159 over 63 AB (60d) · proj .178
HR/BB5.5%·5.6% over 54 BBE (60d) · proj 5.4%
BABIP.291▼.196 over 51 BIP (60d) · proj .296
SLASH.255/.323/.427·proj .249/.322/.426
Platoon Splits2024-2026 · 1208 PA
vs LHP
vs RHP
Edge
PA
315
893
—
wRC+
81
115
▶▶R
wOBA
288
338
▶R
ISO
102
166
▶▶R
BABIP
307
305
—
K%
28.3%
22.5%
▶▶R
BB%
11.7%
10.9%
◀L
Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)
Status   FA
MLB Debut   2019
Service   6.843 yrs.days
Team Control Through   2027
First FA Year   2028
YearStatusSalary Proj WAR Value Surplus
2027Ext / FA-deal$7M+0.8$3M-$4M
Totals $7M $3M -$4M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.
basis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

YearAge LvlTeam MLB% PAAB H2B3BHR BBSOHBP SBCS AVGOBPSLGOPS ISOBABIP K%BB% wOBAwRC+ BATRUNFLDPOSREP WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
201722 A+Charlotte Stone Crabs — 203173 431012 28521 11 249356353709 104342 2614 325 59 — — — — — —
201722 ABowling Green Hot Rods — 269229 671305 36531 01 293391415806 122356 2013 362 84 — — — — — —
201823 AAADurham Bulls — 110100 26614 8272 00 260327460787 200319 257 348 84 — — — — — —
201823 AAMontgomery Biscuits — 225188 6411013 35301 11 3404466061.053 266349 1316 456 158 — — — — — —
201823 A+Charlotte Stone Crabs — 220194 6915010 25331 00 3564325881.019 232391 1511 446 141 — — — — — —
201924 MLBTampa Bay Rays — 169152 40807 13502 00 263329454783 191340 308 343 119 +4 +0 -4 -10 +4 -0.7
201924 AAADurham Bulls — 406329 9524016 72824 10 289422508930 219341 2018 411 116 — — — — — —
202025 MLBTampa Bay Rays — 7667 15204 9280 10 224316433749 209314 3712 333 100 +0 +0 -0 -2 +2 -0.0
202025 INTLLeones del Escogido — 2116 3100 430 00 188350250600 62214 1419 280 76 — — — — — —
202126 MLBTexas Rangers — 642557 14724318 801622 80 264358415773 151339 2512 347 116 +12 +2 -9 -11 +14 0.8
202227 MLBTexas Rangers — 645593 17926327 481474 22 302358492851 191363 237 375 135 +27 -0 -14 -12 +14 1.5
202328 MLBTexas Rangers — 724623 16338317 931655 10 262362414776 152329 2313 349 119 +16 +0 -4 -13 +16 1.6
202429 MLBTexas Rangers — 565486 12916116 711254 20 265364401765 136324 2213 345 115 +10 +0 -0 -10 +12 1.3
202530 MLBBoston Red Sox — 609540 12323318 621592 10 228310381691 154285 2610 309 90 -7 +0 -9 -11 +13 -1.4
202631 MLBCleveland Guardians — 429381 9622017 38992 00 252323444767 192289 239 334 110 +5 +0 +0 -8 +9 0.7
▸ Career Totals (raw MLB only — historical actual)
MLB Career— — 38593399 89215913124 41493521 152 262346426772 164325 2411 344 119 +86 +2 -41 -77 +84 5.6
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
201722 A+ MLECharlotte Stone Crabs — 203180 36912 21731 11 200287294582 94307 3610 256 59 — — — — — —
201722 A MLEBowling Green Hot Rods — 269241 601004 24741 01 249320340660 91329 289 292 84 — — — — — —
201823 AAA MLEDurham Bulls — 110103 24514 5312 00 233282417699 184288 285 292 84 — — — — — —
201823 AA MLEMontgomery Biscuits — 225202 6511012 21351 11 322388554943 233332 169 402 158 — — — — — —
201823 A+ MLECharlotte Stone Crabs — 220201 6214010 18481 00 308368527896 219355 228 376 141 — — — — — —
201924 MLB MLETampa Bay Rays — 169152 40807 13502 00 263329454783 191340 308 344 119 +4 +0 -4 -10 +4 -0.7
201924 AAA MLEDurham Bulls — 406349 8720013 52974 10 249353418771 169306 2413 339 116 — — — — — —
202025 MLB MLETampa Bay Rays — 7669 15204 7280 10 217289420710 203314 379 316 100 +0 +0 -0 -2 +2 -0.0
202126 MLB MLETexas Rangers — 642559 14625317 781622 80 261354408762 147339 2512 340 116 +12 +2 -9 -11 +14 0.8
202227 MLB MLETexas Rangers — 645595 17727325 461474 22 297352479831 182363 237 367 135 +27 -0 -14 -12 +14 1.5
202328 MLB MLETexas Rangers — 724625 16340316 911655 10 261359411770 150329 2313 344 119 +16 +0 -4 -13 +16 1.6
202429 MLB MLETexas Rangers — 565487 12917115 701254 20 265362396758 131324 2212 338 115 +10 +0 -0 -10 +12 1.3
202530 MLB MLEBoston Red Sox — 609542 11920318 601592 10 220300367667 148285 2610 302 90 -7 +0 -9 -11 +13 -1.4
202631 MLB MLECleveland Guardians — 429382 9622017 37992 00 251321442763 191289 239 331 110 +5 +0 +0 -8 +9 0.7
201722 A MLE2 teams — 472420 951916 461472 12 226306319625 93328 3110 277 73 — — — — — —
201722 A RAW2 teams — 472402 1102317 641052 12 274376388764 114350 2214 346 73 — — — — — —
201823 AA MLE3 teams — 555506 14829125 441144 11 292354502856 209334 218 370 136 — — — — — —
201823 AA RAW3 teams — 555482 15932127 68904 11 330417568985 239361 1612 430 136 — — — — — —
201924 AAA MLE2 teams — 575501 12729020 651476 10 253346431777 178318 2611 341 117 — — — — — —
201924 AAA RAW2 teams — 575481 13532023 851326 10 281395491886 210340 2315 391 117 — — — — — —
202025 MLB MLE2 teams — 9787 19305 9360 10 218292425717 207298 379 316 100 +0 +0 -0 -2 +2 0.0
202025 MLB RAW2 teams — 9783 18304 13310 10 217323398721 181286 3213 322 100 +0 +0 -0 -2 +2 0.0
202126 MLB MLETexas Rangers — 642559 14625317 781622 80 261354408762 147337 2512 340 116 +12 +2 -9 -11 +14 0.8
202126 MLB RAWTexas Rangers — 642557 14724318 801622 80 264358415773 151339 2512 347 116 +12 +2 -9 -11 +14 0.8
202227 MLB MLETexas Rangers — 645595 17727325 461474 22 297352479831 182359 237 367 135 +27 -0 -14 -12 +14 1.5
202227 MLB RAWTexas Rangers — 645593 17926327 481474 22 302358492851 191363 237 375 135 +27 -0 -14 -12 +14 1.5
202328 MLB MLETexas Rangers — 724625 16340316 911655 10 261359411770 150329 2313 344 119 +16 +0 -4 -13 +16 1.6
202328 MLB RAWTexas Rangers — 724623 16338317 931655 10 262362414776 152329 2313 349 119 +16 +0 -4 -13 +16 1.6
202429 MLB MLETexas Rangers — 565487 12917115 701254 20 265362396758 131325 2212 338 115 +10 +0 -0 -10 +12 1.3
202429 MLB RAWTexas Rangers — 565486 12916116 711254 20 265364401765 136324 2213 345 115 +10 +0 -0 -10 +12 1.3
202530 MLB MLEBoston Red Sox — 609542 11920318 601592 10 220300367667 148273 2610 302 90 -7 +0 -9 -11 +13 -1.4
202530 MLB RAWBoston Red Sox — 609540 12323318 621592 10 228310381691 154285 2610 309 90 -7 +0 -9 -11 +13 -1.4
202631 MLB MLECleveland Guardians — 429382 9622017 37992 00 251321442763 191288 239 331 110 +5 +0 +0 -8 +9 0.7
202631 MLB RAWCleveland Guardians — 429381 9622017 38992 00 252323444767 192289 239 334 110 +5 +0 +0 -8 +9 0.7
201722 A MLE2 teams — 472421 951916 461472 12 226306318624 93320 3110 277 73 — — — — — —
201823 AA MLE3 teams — 555502 14829125 441144 11 295354506860 211332 218 370 136 — — — — — —
201924 AAA MLE2 teams — 575499 12729020 651476 10 255346433779 178316 2611 341 117 — — — — — —
202025 MLB MLE2 teams — 9788 19305 9360 10 216292420712 205314 379 316 100 — — — — — —
202126 MLB MLETexas Rangers — 642557 14625317 781622 80 262354409763 147339 2512 340 116 — — — — — —
202227 MLB MLETexas Rangers — 645590 17727325 461474 22 300352483835 183363 237 367 135 — — — — — —
202328 MLB MLETexas Rangers — 724622 16340316 911655 10 262359413772 151329 2313 344 119 — — — — — —
202429 MLB MLETexas Rangers — 565486 12917115 701254 20 265362397759 132324 2212 338 115 — — — — — —
202530 MLB MLEBoston Red Sox — 609542 11920318 601592 10 220300367667 148285 2610 302 90 — — — — — —
202631 MLB MLECleveland Guardians — 429387 9622017 37992 00 248321437757 189289 239 331 110 — — — — — —
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons)
202429 MLB MLETexas Rangers — 565486 12917115 701254 20 265362397759 132324 2212 338 115 — — — — — —
202530 MLB MLEBoston Red Sox — 609542 11920318 601592 10 220300367667 148285 2610 302 90 — — — — — —
202631 MLB MLECleveland Guardians — 429387 9622017 37992 00 248321437757 189289 239 331 110 — — — — — —
▸ 2027 season
▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability)
202732 MLB MLECLE 100% 486435 10722117 461152 21 249325426751 177296 249 332 111 +6 +0 +3 -9 +11 0.8
▸ 2027 — real world (MLB)
202732 MLB CTXCLE 100% 403360 8918114 38952 21 250325427752 177297 249 333 111 +5 +0 +2 -7 +9 0.9
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
202833 MLB MLECLE 100% 451404 9619115 421092 20 240315407722 167288 249 320 103 +2 +0 -2 -8 +10 0.2
202833 MLB CTXCLE 100% 451404 9719115 421092 20 241316407723 166289 249 321 103 +2 +0 -2 -8 +10 0.2
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career— A+C — 43103803 98917814139 456104423 172 260343424767 164321 2411 341 112 +88 +3 -42 -85 +93 5.8
/ 162G— A+C — 650574 14927221 691573 30 260342423765 164320 2411 341 112 +13 +0 -6 -13 +14 0.9
Career— MLE — 61675468 140426817193 626150535 226 257337418755 161318 2410 334 112 +93 +3 -40 -92 +102 6.8
/ 162G— MLE — 650576 14828220 661594 21 257337417754 160319 2410 334 112 +13 +0 -6 -13 +14 0.9

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2019 AAADurham Bulls · 406 PAwOBA .402 → .339 (−63)K% 20.2% → 23.8%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA20.20%÷1.020×1.200——23.76%
BB% (unintentional) /PA17.49%÷0.998×0.690—×1.04812.68%
HBP% /PA0.99%—×0.940—×1.0480.97%
Singles /BIP22.27%÷0.986×0.930×0.959×1.04821.10%
Doubles /BIP9.72%÷1.006×0.830×0.959×1.0488.06%
Triples /BIP0.00%÷1.025×0.970×0.959×1.0480.00%
Home runs /BIP6.48%÷1.128×0.840—×1.0485.05%

Factors used: league row IL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 126, 1B 97, 2B 101, 3B 105, K 104, BB 100 — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 27.2 → +4.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.959.

Result: wOBA .402 → .339; ISO .219 → .179; BABIP .341 → .306. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2018 AAMontgomery Biscuits · 225 PAwOBA .441 → .402 (−40)K% 13.3% → 15.4%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA13.33%÷1.055×1.220——15.41%
BB% (unintentional) /PA13.78%÷1.031×0.680—×1.0279.34%
HBP% /PA0.44%—×0.840—×1.0270.38%
Singles /BIP25.32%÷0.965×0.920×0.995×1.02724.67%
Doubles /BIP6.96%÷1.007×0.910×0.995×1.0276.43%
Triples /BIP0.00%÷1.010×0.880×0.995×1.0270.00%
Home runs /BIP8.23%÷0.984×0.800—×1.0276.87%

Factors used: league row SL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 97, 1B 93, 2B 101, 3B 102, K 111, BB 106 — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 24.8 → +2.7% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.995.

Result: wOBA .441 → .402; ISO .266 → .242; BABIP .349 → .332. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2018 A+Charlotte Stone Crabs · 220 PAwOBA .432 → .376 (−56)K% 15.0% → 21.7%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA15.00%÷0.983×1.420——21.66%
BB% (unintentional) /PA10.91%÷1.022×0.750—×0.9987.99%
HBP% /PA0.45%—×0.930—×0.9980.42%
Singles /BIP27.33%÷1.031×0.920×1.003×0.99824.43%
Doubles /BIP9.32%÷1.012×0.960×1.003×0.9988.85%
Triples /BIP0.00%÷1.150×0.810×1.003×0.9980.00%
Home runs /BIP6.21%÷0.857×0.880—×0.9986.36%

Factors used: league row FSL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 71, 1B 106, 2B 102, 3B 130, K 97, BB 104 — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 22.8 → −0.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.003.

Result: wOBA .432 → .376; ISO .232 → .222; BABIP .391 → .355. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2018 AAADurham Bulls · 110 PAwOBA .335 → .292 (−43)K% 24.5% → 28.5%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA24.55%÷1.032×1.200——28.54%
BB% (unintentional) /PA6.36%÷0.986×0.690—×1.0504.68%
HBP% /PA1.82%—×0.940—×1.0501.79%
Singles /BIP20.55%÷1.052×0.930×1.013×1.05019.33%
Doubles /BIP8.22%÷1.091×0.830×1.013×1.0506.66%
Triples /BIP1.37%÷0.993×0.970×1.013×1.0501.42%
Home runs /BIP5.48%÷0.970×0.840—×1.0504.98%

Factors used: league row IL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 94, 1B 110, 2B 118, 3B 99, K 106, BB 97 — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 27.2 → +5.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (4.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.013.

Result: wOBA .335 → .292; ISO .200 → .175; BABIP .319 → .288. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2017 ABowling Green Hot Rods · 269 PAwOBA .357 → .292 (−64)K% 19.7% → 27.6%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA19.70%÷0.973×1.360——27.55%
BB% (unintentional) /PA13.38%÷1.013×0.690——9.11%
HBP% /PA0.37%—×0.780——0.29%
Singles /BIP27.84%÷0.978×0.920×1.028—26.92%
Doubles /BIP7.39%÷1.086×0.830×1.028—5.80%
Triples /BIP0.00%÷1.121×0.910×1.028—0.00%
Home runs /BIP2.84%÷0.985×0.800——2.31%

Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 97, 1B 96, 2B 117, 3B 124, K 95, BB 103 — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 22.0 → +0.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.0 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.028.

Result: wOBA .357 → .292; ISO .122 → .094; BABIP .356 → .329. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2017 A+Charlotte Stone Crabs · 203 PAwOBA .317 → .256 (−61)K% 25.6% → 35.8%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA25.62%÷1.017×1.420——35.77%
BB% (unintentional) /PA13.30%÷0.967×0.750—×1.01210.44%
HBP% /PA0.49%—×0.930—×1.0120.46%
Singles /BIP24.79%÷1.073×0.920×1.013×1.01221.78%
Doubles /BIP8.26%÷1.007×0.960×1.013×1.0128.07%
Triples /BIP0.83%÷1.024×0.810×1.013×1.0120.67%
Home runs /BIP1.65%÷0.917×0.880—×1.0121.60%

Factors used: league row FSL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 83, 1B 115, 2B 102, 3B 105, K 103, BB 93 — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 22.8 → +1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.013.

Result: wOBA .317 → .256; ISO .104 → .089; BABIP .342 → .307. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Not traceable per stint: some stints lack the counting stats the component translation needs. Level-wide factors that apply instead — .