Trey Mancini

1B Salt Lake Bees
Age 35 R/R 6'3" / 230 lbs AAA K +5%HR +4% Svc 5.631 · Ctrl thru 2027
Overview
AAAArb-3FA 2028
YearAgeLvl / TeamPAAVG/OBP/SLGHRSBwRC+WARMLE AVG/OBP/SLG
202331MLBCHC263.234/.300/.3364077-0.9
202533AAAARI335.308/.377/.52216291—.246/.298/.401
202634AAALAA224.273/.385/.4646385—.221/.303/.354
2027PROJ10% MLB35MLBLAA17.252/.315/.415101060.0
2028PROJ36MLBLAA131.239/.301/.3874194-0.6
Last 3 seasons WAR -0.9  ·  Next 2 projected WAR -0.6Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.
ContractESTIMATED
Control thru2027Service5.631First FA2028
2027Arb-3$1M
Skills · percentileStatcast 2022-2026
Bat Spd62
xwOBA56
Avg EV53
Barrel%50
Speed32
CompsJosé Hernández (age 35) · Miguel Olivo (age 35) · Mario Valenzuela (age 36)
2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONstats below = full-season projection
showingPROJ
wRC+†106
AVG/OBP/SLG.252 / .315 / .415
PA17
HR1
K%24
BB%6
BABIP309
ISO250
MLB%10%
Value2027 · WAR
BAT: +1.2 runs (wOBA-derived runs vs avg)+1BATRUN: +0.1 runs (SB/CS + UBR baserunning)+0RUNFLD: +0.6 runs (Defensive runs vs avg)+1FLDPOS: -3.1 runs (Positional adjustment)-3POSREP: +3.8 runs (Replacement-level credit)+4REPTotal WAR: +0.30+0.3WAR
trajectory · projected WAR by year
0.3-0.62728
Tools · Contract
ToolsStatcast %ile · 2022-2026
CONTACT
xAVG
290.234
POWER
Barrel%
508.1
Avg EV
5389.3
Bat Spd
6272.6
SPEED
Sprint
3226.6
Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)
Status   Arb-3
MLB Debut   2016
Service   5.631 yrs.days
Team Control Through   2027
First FA Year   2028
YearStatusSalary Proj WAR Value Surplus
2027Arb-3$1M+0.0$0.1M+$0.0M (cut)
Totals $0.0M $0.1M +$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.
basis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

YearAge LvlTeam MLB% PAAB H2B3BHR BBSOHBP SBCS AVGOBPSLGOPS ISOBABIP K%BB% wOBAwRC+ BATRUNFLDPOSREP WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
201422 A+Frederick Keys — 295275 691907 14434 01 251297396693 145273 155 307 56 — — — — — —
201422 ADelmarva Shorebirds — 291268 851333 14525 11 317362422784 104378 185 347 85 — — — — — —
201523 AABowie Baysox — 354326 11729313 22581 21 359401586987 227400 166 425 140 — — — — — —
201523 A+Frederick Keys — 217207 651438 9350 42 314343527869 213345 164 378 87 — — — — — —
201624 MLBBaltimore Orioles — 1514 5103 041 00 3574001.0711.471 714286 270 611 273 +3 +0 +0 -11 +0 -0.8
201624 AAANorfolk Tides — 536483 13522513 481234 22 280350427776 147351 239 347 92 — — — — — —
201624 AABowie Baysox — 7563 19407 10172 00 3024136981.112 397308 2313 472 131 — — — — — —
201725 MLBBaltimore Orioles — 586543 15926424 331396 10 293340488828 195352 246 362 124 +17 +0 -8 -6 +13 1.6
201826 MLBBaltimore Orioles — 636582 14123324 441535 01 242301416717 174285 247 316 94 -5 -0 -9 -7 +14 -0.8
201927 MLBBaltimore Orioles — 679602 17538235 631439 10 291366535901 244326 219 392 142 +34 +0 -9 -7 +15 3.3
202129 MLBBaltimore Orioles — 616556 14233121 511438 00 255327432758 176308 238 337 107 +5 +0 -3 -11 +13 0.4
202230 MLBHouston Astros — 587519 12423118 5313510 00 239321391712 152286 239 319 99 -1 +0 -1 -10 +13 0.1
202331 MLBChicago Cubs — 263235 551204 21782 00 234300336636 102327 308 286 77 -7 +0 -3 -5 +6 -0.9
202331 AAALouisville Bats — 1919 6202 050 00 3163167371.053 421333 260 449 93 — — — — — —
202533 AAAReno Aces — 335299 9216016 25708 21 308377522898 214352 217 392 91 — — — — — —
202634 AAASalt Lake Bees — 224183 501706 32492 30 273385464850 191328 2214 369 85 — — — — — —
▸ Career Totals (raw MLB only — historical actual)
MLB Career— — 33823051 80115611129 26579541 21 263330448777 185313 248 343 118 +72 +0 -34 -58 +73 5.5
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
201422 A+ MLEFrederick Keys — 295280 611606 9614 01 218253339592 121250 213 251 56 — — — — — —
201422 A MLEDelmarva Shorebirds — 291273 741122 9715 11 271307348655 77351 243 294 85 — — — — — —
201523 AA MLEBowie Baysox — 354333 1122739 15721 21 336367517883 180391 204 375 140 — — — — — —
201523 A+ MLEFrederick Keys — 217211 551126 5510 42 261278417695 156314 242 297 87 — — — — — —
201624 MLB MLEBaltimore Orioles — 1514 5103 041 00 3574001.0711.471 714286 270 572 273 +3 +0 +0 -11 +0 -0.8
201624 AAA MLENorfolk Tides — 536498 12619414 331504 22 253305392696 139333 286 304 92 — — — — — —
201624 AA MLEBowie Baysox — 7566 16305 7212 00 242333515848 273275 289 362 131 — — — — — —
201725 MLB MLEBaltimore Orioles — 586544 15626422 321396 10 287333471804 184352 245 352 124 +17 +0 -8 -6 +13 1.6
201826 MLB MLEBaltimore Orioles — 636583 13823322 431535 01 237295400694 163285 247 307 94 -5 -0 -9 -7 +14 -0.8
201927 MLB MLEBaltimore Orioles — 679605 17239232 601439 10 284358514872 230326 219 378 142 +34 +0 -9 -7 +15 3.3
202129 MLB MLEBaltimore Orioles — 616560 14034119 471438 00 250317416733 166308 238 326 107 +5 +0 -3 -11 +13 0.4
202230 MLB MLEHouston Astros — 587521 12422119 5113510 00 238318393711 155286 239 315 99 -1 +0 -1 -10 +13 0.1
202331 MLB MLEChicago Cubs — 263238 551204 20782 00 231296332628 101327 308 282 77 -7 +0 -3 -5 +6 -0.9
202331 AAA MLELouisville Bats — 1919 5201 060 00 263263526789 263275 320 306 93 — — — — — —
202533 AAA MLEReno Aces — 335309 7612012 15828 21 246298401699 155288 244 302 91 — — — — — —
202634 AAA MLESalt Lake Bees — 224195 431404 21592 30 221303354657 133274 269 294 85 — — — — — —
201422 A+ MLE2 teams — 586553 1352728 181329 12 244279344623 99303 233 272 70 — — — — — —
201422 A+ RAW2 teams — 586543 15432310 28959 12 284329409738 125324 165 327 70 — — — — — —
201523 AA MLE2 teams — 571544 16638514 201221 63 305331471802 165367 214 345 120 — — — — — —
201523 AA RAW2 teams — 571533 18243621 31931 63 341379563942 221379 165 407 120 — — — — — —
201624 AAA MLE3 teams — 626579 14723422 391757 22 254309421730 168326 286 317 101 — — — — — —
201624 AAA RAW3 teams — 626560 15927523 581447 22 284358473832 189345 239 368 101 — — — — — —
201725 MLB MLEBaltimore Orioles — 586544 15626422 321396 10 287333471804 184346 245 352 124 +17 +0 -8 -6 +13 1.6
201725 MLB RAWBaltimore Orioles — 586543 15926424 331396 10 293340488828 195352 246 362 124 +17 +0 -8 -6 +13 1.6
201826 MLB MLEBaltimore Orioles — 636583 13823322 431535 01 237295400694 163281 247 307 94 -5 -0 -9 -7 +14 -0.8
201826 MLB RAWBaltimore Orioles — 636582 14123324 441535 01 242301416717 174285 247 316 94 -5 -0 -9 -7 +14 -0.8
201927 MLB MLEBaltimore Orioles — 679605 17239232 601439 10 284358514872 230322 219 378 142 +34 +0 -9 -7 +15 3.3
201927 MLB RAWBaltimore Orioles — 679602 17538235 631439 10 291366535901 244326 219 392 142 +34 +0 -9 -7 +15 3.3
202129 MLB MLEBaltimore Orioles — 616560 14034119 471438 00 250317416733 166303 238 326 107 +5 +0 -3 -11 +13 0.4
202129 MLB RAWBaltimore Orioles — 616556 14233121 511438 00 255327432758 176308 238 337 107 +5 +0 -3 -11 +13 0.4
202230 MLB MLEHouston Astros — 587521 12422119 5113510 00 238318393711 155282 239 315 99 -1 +0 -1 -10 +13 0.1
202230 MLB RAWHouston Astros — 587519 12423118 5313510 00 239321391712 152286 239 319 99 -1 +0 -1 -10 +13 0.1
202331 MLB MLE2 teams — 282257 591305 20842 00 230290339629 109316 307 284 78 -7 +0 -3 -5 +6 -0.9
202331 MLB RAW2 teams — 282254 611406 21832 00 240301366667 126327 297 297 78 -7 +0 -3 -5 +6 -0.9
202533 AAA MLEReno Aces — 335309 7612012 15828 21 246298401699 155294 244 302 91 — — — — — —
202533 AAA RAWReno Aces — 335299 9216016 25708 21 308377522898 214352 217 392 91 — — — — — —
202634 AAA MLESalt Lake Bees — 224195 431404 21592 30 221303354657 133283 269 294 85 — — — — — —
202634 AAA RAWSalt Lake Bees — 224183 501706 32492 30 273385464850 191328 2214 369 85 — — — — — —
201422 A+ MLE2 teams — 586554 1352728 181329 12 244279343622 99300 233 272 70 — — — — — —
201523 AA MLE2 teams — 571545 16638514 201221 63 305331470801 165362 214 345 120 — — — — — —
201624 AAA MLE3 teams — 626575 14723422 391757 22 256309424733 169325 286 317 101 — — — — — —
201725 MLB MLEBaltimore Orioles — 586543 15626422 321396 10 287333471805 184352 245 352 124 — — — — — —
201826 MLB MLEBaltimore Orioles — 636583 13823322 431535 01 237295400694 163285 247 307 94 — — — — — —
201927 MLB MLEBaltimore Orioles — 679605 17239232 601439 10 284358514872 230326 219 378 142 — — — — — —
202129 MLB MLEBaltimore Orioles — 616556 14034119 471438 00 252317419736 167308 238 326 107 — — — — — —
202230 MLB MLEHouston Astros — 587521 12422119 5113510 00 238318393711 155286 239 315 99 — — — — — —
202331 MLB MLE2 teams — 282258 591305 20842 00 229290337628 109323 307 284 78 — — — — — —
202533 AAA MLEReno Aces — 335309 7612012 15828 21 246298401699 155288 244 302 91 — — — — — —
202634 AAA MLESalt Lake Bees — 224199 431404 21592 30 216303347649 131274 269 294 85 — — — — — —
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons)
202533 AAA MLEReno Aces — 335309 7612012 15828 21 246298401699 155288 244 302 91 — — — — — —
202634 AAA MLESalt Lake Bees — 224199 431404 21592 30 216303347649 131274 269 294 85 — — — — — —
▸ 2027 season
▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability)
202735 MLB MLELAA 10% 281255 661419 20694 41 254317417733 163312 257 324 106 +2 +0 +1 -5 +6 0.3
▸ 2027 — real world (MLB)
202735 MLB CTXLAA 10% 1716 5101 140 00 252315415730 163309 246 323 106 +0 +0 +0 -0 +0 0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
202836 MLB MLELAA 100% 131119 29604 9332 10 241302389691 148300 257 307 94 -1 +0 -6 -2 +3 -0.6
202836 MLB CTXLAA 100% 131119 29604 9332 10 239301387688 148298 257 306 94 -1 +0 -6 -2 +3 -0.6
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career— A+C — 35133170 83016211133 27482843 31 262329446774 184312 248 341 104 +71 +0 -40 -60 +76 4.8
/ 162G— A+C — 650587 15430225 511538 10 262330448778 186312 248 341 104 +13 +0 -7 -11 +14 0.9
Career— MLE — 60335527 142528523188 387144371 2010 258315420734 162314 246 322 104 +73 +0 -39 -64 +80 5.1
/ 162G— MLE — 650595 15331220 421558 21 257315417732 160313 246 322 104 +13 +0 -7 -11 +14 0.9

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 AAASalt Lake Bees · 224 PAwOBA .369 → .294 (−75)K% 21.9% → 26.2%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA21.88%÷1.000×1.200——26.25%
BB% (unintentional) /PA14.29%÷1.000×0.690—×0.9409.27%
HBP% /PA0.89%—×0.940—×0.9400.79%
Singles /BIP20.15%÷1.000×0.930×1.009×0.94017.77%
Doubles /BIP12.69%÷1.000×0.830×1.009×0.9409.99%
Triples /BIP0.00%÷1.000×0.970×1.009×0.9400.00%
Home runs /BIP4.48%÷1.000×0.700—×0.9402.95%

Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 34 vs a level average of 27.2 → −6.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (6.8 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.009.

Result: wOBA .369 → .294; ISO .191 → .147; BABIP .328 → .274. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 AAAReno Aces · 335 PAwOBA .383 → .302 (−81)K% 20.9% → 24.5%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA20.90%÷1.025×1.200——24.46%
BB% (unintentional) /PA6.87%÷0.964×0.690—×0.9424.63%
HBP% /PA2.39%—×0.940—×0.9422.11%
Singles /BIP26.20%÷0.994×0.930×0.983×0.94222.70%
Doubles /BIP6.99%÷1.069×0.830×0.983×0.9425.03%
Triples /BIP0.00%÷0.902×0.970×0.983×0.9420.00%
Home runs /BIP6.99%÷0.904×0.700—×0.9425.10%

Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 81, 1B 99, 2B 114, 3B 80, K 105, BB 93 — applied at half strength. Age: age 33 vs a level average of 27.2 → −5.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (5.8 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.983.

Result: wOBA .383 → .302; ISO .214 → .157; BABIP .352 → .288. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 AAALouisville Bats · 19 PAwOBA .435 → .306 (−128)K% 26.3% → 31.4%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA26.32%÷1.004×1.200——31.45%
BB% (unintentional) /PA0.00%÷0.993×0.690—×0.9620.00%
HBP% /PA0.00%—×0.940—×0.9620.00%
Singles /BIP14.29%÷0.998×0.930—×0.96212.81%
Doubles /BIP14.29%÷0.938×0.830—×0.96212.16%
Triples /BIP0.00%÷1.042×0.970—×0.9620.00%
Home runs /BIP14.29%÷1.054×0.700—×0.9629.13%

Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 111, 1B 100, 2B 88, 3B 108, K 101, BB 99 — applied at half strength. Age: age 31 vs a level average of 27.2 → −3.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.8 yr older than average).

Result: wOBA .435 → .306; ISO .421 → .271; BABIP .333 → .275. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2016 AAANorfolk Tides · 536 PAwOBA .337 → .304 (−33)K% 22.9% → 28.0%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA22.95%÷0.983×1.200——28.00%
BB% (unintentional) /PA8.77%÷1.046×0.690—×1.0486.06%
HBP% /PA0.75%—×0.940—×1.0480.74%
Singles /BIP26.39%÷1.027×0.930×1.019×1.04825.52%
Doubles /BIP6.11%÷1.021×0.830×1.019×1.0485.30%
Triples /BIP1.39%÷1.150×0.970×1.019×1.0481.25%
Home runs /BIP3.61%÷0.776×0.840—×1.0484.09%

Factors used: league row IL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 55, 1B 105, 2B 104, 3B 130, K 97, BB 109 — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 27.2 → +4.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.019.

Result: wOBA .337 → .304; ISO .147 → .145; BABIP .351 → .333. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2016 AABowie Baysox · 75 PAwOBA .459 → .362 (−96)K% 22.7% → 28.1%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA22.67%÷0.984×1.220——28.09%
BB% (unintentional) /PA13.33%÷1.084×0.700—×1.0128.71%
HBP% /PA2.67%—×0.850—×1.0122.29%
Singles /BIP17.39%÷0.992×0.970—×1.01217.21%
Doubles /BIP8.70%÷1.053×0.860—×1.0127.19%
Triples /BIP0.00%÷0.900×0.950—×1.0120.00%
Home runs /BIP15.22%÷1.057×0.780—×1.01211.37%

Factors used: league row EL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 111, 1B 98, 2B 111, 3B 80, K 97, BB 117 — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 24.8 → +1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr younger than average).

Result: wOBA .459 → .362; ISO .397 → .299; BABIP .308 → .275. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2015 AABowie Baysox · 354 PAwOBA .418 → .375 (−43)K% 16.4% → 20.2%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA16.38%÷0.989×1.220——20.22%
BB% (unintentional) /PA5.93%÷1.014×0.700—×1.0274.20%
HBP% /PA0.28%—×0.850—×1.0270.25%
Singles /BIP26.87%÷1.023×0.970×1.050×1.02727.47%
Doubles /BIP10.82%÷0.999×0.860×1.050×1.02710.05%
Triples /BIP1.12%÷1.123×0.950×1.050×1.0271.02%
Home runs /BIP4.85%÷1.197×0.780—×1.0273.25%

Factors used: league row EL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 139, 1B 105, 2B 100, 3B 125, K 98, BB 103 — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 24.8 → +2.7% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.050.

Result: wOBA .418 → .375; ISO .227 → .179; BABIP .400 → .391. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2015 A+Frederick Keys · 217 PAwOBA .367 → .297 (−70)K% 16.1% → 23.3%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA16.13%÷0.985×1.420——23.26%
BB% (unintentional) /PA3.69%÷0.999×0.630—×0.9982.32%
HBP% /PA0.00%—×0.860—×0.9980.00%
Singles /BIP23.26%÷1.001×0.940×1.019×0.99822.20%
Doubles /BIP8.14%÷1.021×0.830×1.019×0.9986.73%
Triples /BIP1.74%÷0.935×0.800×1.019×0.9981.52%
Home runs /BIP4.65%÷1.184×0.900—×0.9983.53%

Factors used: league row CAR. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 137, 1B 100, 2B 104, 3B 87, K 97, BB 100 — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 22.8 → −0.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.019.

Result: wOBA .367 → .297; ISO .213 → .159; BABIP .345 → .314. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2014 A+Frederick Keys · 295 PAwOBA .301 → .251 (−49)K% 14.6% → 20.7%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA14.58%÷0.999×1.420——20.72%
BB% (unintentional) /PA4.75%÷0.985×0.630—×1.0123.07%
HBP% /PA1.36%—×0.860—×1.0121.18%
Singles /BIP18.53%÷1.014×0.940×1.003×1.01217.43%
Doubles /BIP8.19%÷0.969×0.830×1.003×1.0127.12%
Triples /BIP0.00%÷0.984×0.800×1.003×1.0120.00%
Home runs /BIP3.02%÷1.076×0.900—×1.0122.55%

Factors used: league row CAR. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 115, 1B 103, 2B 94, 3B 97, K 100, BB 97 — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 22.8 → +1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.003.

Result: wOBA .301 → .251; ISO .145 → .119; BABIP .273 → .250. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).