Josiah Hartshorn

RF South Bend Cubs

Age 20 S/L 6'0" / 220 lbs A+ HR -8% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2034

Overview

A+PROSPECTMiLBFA 2035

OGV OFP45OGV rank#99ETA2028MLB%4%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	PA	AVG/OBP/SLG	HR	SB	wRC+	WAR	MLE AVG/OBP/SLG
2026	19	AA/A+/ACHC	562	.284/.416/.518	23	17	121	—	.253/.357/.442
2027PROJMLE	20	MLBCHC	9	.241/.336/.420	0	0	113	0.0
2028PROJ50% MLB	21	MLBCHC	259	.245/.341/.430	9	5	117	0.8
2029PROJ69% MLB	22	MLBCHC	380	.248/.343/.438	14	7	120	1.3

Next 3 projected WAR 2.1Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2034Service0.0First FA2035

2027MiLB2028MiLB2029Pre-Arb$0.8M2030Pre-Arb$0.8M2031Pre-Arb$0.9M2032Arb-1$5M2033Arb-2$9M2034Arb-3$13M

Skills · percentileMiLB Statcast 2026 A+

ISO93

wOBA92

wRC+91

Z-Con%87

Chase%84

Whiff%79

Career WAR3.8 WAR median (P10 -0.4 / P90 34, comp-based) · star 18% · didn't stick 44%

CompsJaff Decker (age 21) · Edgar Quero (age 20) · Adael Amador (age 21)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONstats below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+†113

AVG/OBP/SLG.241 / .336 / .420

PA9

HR0

K%22

BB%11

BABIP294

ISO170

MLB%4%

Value2027 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control+$55M ctrl surplus

Contract

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2029

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2034

First FA Year 2035

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2029	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+1.3	$9M	+$8M
2030	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+1.6	$10M	+$10M
2031	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+1.7	$10M	+$9M
2032	Arb-1	$5M	+1.7	$9M	+$6M
2033	Arb-2	$9M	+1.8	$9M	+$4M
2034	Arb-3	$13M	+1.7	$8M	+$2M
Totals		$30M		$56M	+$40M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2026	19	AA	Knoxville Smokies	—	15	11	1	0	0	0	3	3	0	1	0	91	286	91	377		111	20	20	200	5	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	19	A+	South Bend Cubs	—	370	300	89	17	4	18	54	79	7	12	3	297	416	560	976	263	335	21	15	416	132	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	19	A	Myrtle Beach Pelicans	—	177	139	38	9	1	5	34	27	3	4	2	273	426	460	887	187	306	15	19	397	107	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2026	19	AA MLE	Knoxville Smokies	—	15	12	1	0	0	0	2	4	0	1	0	83	214	83	298		109	27	13	175	5	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	19	A+ MLE	South Bend Cubs	—	370	314	84	15	4	15	40	100	7	12	3	268	363	484	847	217	315	27	11	363	132	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	19	A MLE	Myrtle Beach Pelicans	—	177	148	35	8	1	4	25	37	3	4	2	236	358	385	743	149	277	21	14	327	107	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	19	A+ MLE	3 teams	—	562	475	121	23	5	20	66	141	10	17	5	255	358	451	808	196	311	25	12	347	121	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	19	A+ RAW	3 teams	—	562	450	128	26	5	23	91	109	10	17	5	284	416	518	933	233	319	19	16	404	121	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	19	A+ MLE	3 teams	—	562	481	121	23	5	20	66	141	10	17	5	252	358	445	802	193	298	25	12	347	121	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons)
2026	19	A+ MLE	3 teams	—	562	481	121	23	5	20	66	141	10	17	5	252	358	445	802	193	298	25	12	347	121	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2027 season
▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability)
2027	20	MLB MLE	CHC	4%	648	562	135	25	4	23	72	159	9	12	3	239	335	419	755	180	290	25	11	336	113	+10	+1	-3	-7	+14	0.8
▸ 2027 — real world (MLB)
2027	20	MLB CTX	CHC	4%	9	8	1	0	0	0	1	2	0	0	0	241	336	420	756	179	294	22	11	336	113	+0	+0	-0	-0	+0	0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
2028	21	MLB MLE	CHC	50%	517	447	109	20	3	19	58	124	7	10	2	244	340	430	770	187	291	24	11	342	117	+11	+1	-2	-6	+11	1.6
2029	22	MLB MLE	CHC	69%	552	477	118	22	3	21	62	129	8	10	3	247	342	438	780	191	291	23	11	346	120	+13	+1	-2	-6	+12	1.8
2030	23	MLB MLE	CHC	77%	568	492	122	22	3	22	63	131	8	10	2	249	344	443	786	194	292	23	11	348	122	+15	+1	-2	-6	+12	2.1
2031	24	MLB MLE	CHC	78%	578	501	126	23	3	23	64	132	8	10	2	250	344	445	789	195	293	23	11	349	122	+15	+1	-1	-6	+13	2.2
2032	25	MLB MLE	CHC	79%	590	512	128	24	3	23	65	134	8	10	2	251	344	445	789	194	293	23	11	349	122	+16	+1	-1	-6	+13	2.3
2033	26	MLB MLE	CHC	79%	599	520	129	24	3	23	66	136	8	9	2	250	344	444	788	194	293	23	11	349	122	+16	+1	-1	-6	+13	2.3
2034	27	MLB MLE	CHC	78%	596	517	129	24	3	23	66	137	8	9	2	249	343	442	784	192	292	23	11	347	121	+15	+1	-1	-6	+13	2.2
2035	28	MLB MLE	CHC	77%	585	508	125	23	3	22	65	135	7	8	2	247	341	437	777	189	291	23	11	344	119	+13	+1	-2	-6	+13	1.9
2036	29	MLB MLE	CHC	75%	568	493	121	22	3	21	63	133	7	7	2	245	338	430	768	185	289	23	11	341	117	+11	+1	-3	-6	+12	1.6
2037	30	MLB MLE	CHC	74%	552	480	116	21	3	20	60	131	7	6	2	241	334	422	756	180	287	24	11	336	113	+9	+0	-3	-6	+12	1.2
2038	31	MLB MLE	CHC	73%	534	465	110	20	2	19	58	129	6	4	4	237	329	411	741	174	284	24	11	330	109	+6	-1	-4	-6	+12	0.7
2039	32	MLB MLE	CHC	72%	511	445	102	18	2	17	55	126	6	3	13	231	323	398	721	167	280	25	11	322	104	+2	-5	-5	-5	+11	-0.1
2040	33	MLB MLE	CHC	72%	476	418	93	16	2	15	50	120	5	3	53	224	315	382	697	157	274	25	11	312	98	-1	-21	-5	-5	+10	-2.2
2028	21	MLB CTX	CHC	50%	259	224	55	10	2	9	29	62	4	5	1	245	341	430	771	185	294	24	11	342	117	+5	+1	-1	-3	+6	0.8
2029	22	MLB CTX	CHC	69%	380	329	82	15	3	14	43	89	5	7	2	248	343	438	781	190	295	23	11	346	120	+9	+1	-1	-4	+8	1.3
2030	23	MLB CTX	CHC	77%	435	377	94	18	3	16	49	100	6	8	2	250	345	442	787	192	295	23	11	348	122	+11	+1	-1	-5	+9	1.6
2031	24	MLB CTX	CHC	78%	451	392	98	18	3	17	50	103	6	8	2	251	345	445	790	193	296	23	11	349	122	+12	+1	-1	-5	+10	1.7
2032	25	MLB CTX	CHC	79%	464	404	101	19	3	17	51	106	6	7	2	252	345	444	789	193	296	23	11	349	122	+12	+1	-1	-5	+10	1.7
2033	26	MLB CTX	CHC	79%	473	412	103	19	3	18	52	108	6	7	2	251	345	444	789	193	296	23	11	349	122	+12	+1	-1	-5	+10	1.8
2034	27	MLB CTX	CHC	78%	462	402	100	19	3	17	51	106	6	7	2	250	344	441	785	191	295	23	11	347	121	+12	+1	-1	-5	+10	1.7
2035	28	MLB CTX	CHC	77%	450	391	97	18	3	17	50	104	6	6	2	248	342	436	778	188	294	23	11	345	119	+10	+0	-1	-5	+10	1.4
2036	29	MLB CTX	CHC	75%	425	370	91	17	3	15	47	100	5	5	2	246	339	429	768	184	292	24	11	341	117	+8	+0	-2	-5	+9	1.2
2037	30	MLB CTX	CHC	74%	406	354	85	16	2	14	44	96	5	4	2	242	335	421	756	179	290	24	11	336	113	+7	+0	-2	-4	+9	0.9
2038	31	MLB CTX	CHC	73%	389	339	80	15	2	13	42	94	5	3	3	238	330	411	741	173	287	24	11	330	109	+4	-1	-3	-4	+8	0.5
2039	32	MLB CTX	CHC	72%	370	323	76	14	2	12	40	91	4	2	9	232	324	397	721	165	283	25	11	322	104	+2	-3	-3	-4	+8	-0.1
2040	33	MLB CTX	CHC	72%	344	301	69	12	2	11	36	87	4	2	38	225	316	381	697	156	277	25	10	313	98	-1	-15	-4	-4	+7	-1.6
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	5308	4618	1131	210	34	190	584	1246	68	71	69	245	338	429	767	184	293	23	11	341	117	+104	-13	-23	-57	+115	12.8
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	566	138	26	4	23	72	153	8	9	8	244	338	426	764	182	293	24	11	341	117	+13	-2	-3	-7	+14	1.6
Career	—	MLE		—	7998	6932	1692	310	42	295	884	1890	106	120	97	244	339	429	767	185	291	24	11	341	117	+144	-16	-33	-80	+161	18.0
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	563	137	25	3	24	72	154	9	10	8	243	339	426	765	183	290	24	11	341	117	+13	-1	-3	-7	+14	1.6

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 A+South Bend Cubs · 370 PAwOBA .414 → .363 (−52)K% 21.4% → 27.1%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	21.35%	÷1.000	×1.270	—	—	27.12%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	14.32%	÷1.000	×0.710	—	×1.050	10.68%
HBP% /PA	1.89%	—	×0.790	—	×1.050	1.57%
Singles /BIP	22.62%	÷1.000	×0.920	×1.019	×1.050	22.27%
Doubles /BIP	7.69%	÷1.000	×0.810	×1.019	×1.050	6.67%
Triples /BIP	1.81%	÷1.000	×0.850	×1.019	×1.050	1.65%
Home runs /BIP	8.14%	÷1.000	×0.800	—	×1.050	6.84%

Factors used: league row Midwest League. Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 19 vs a level average of 22.8 → +5.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.019.

Result: wOBA .414 → .363; ISO .263 → .228; BABIP .335 → .315. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2026 AMyrtle Beach Pelicans · 177 PAwOBA .390 → .327 (−63)K% 15.3% → 20.7%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	15.25%	÷1.000	×1.360	—	—	20.75%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	19.21%	÷1.000	×0.690	—	×1.045	13.85%
HBP% /PA	1.69%	—	×0.780	—	×1.045	1.38%
Singles /BIP	20.54%	÷1.000	×0.920	×0.978	×1.045	19.31%
Doubles /BIP	8.04%	÷1.000	×0.830	×0.978	×1.045	6.82%
Triples /BIP	0.89%	÷1.000	×0.910	×0.978	×1.045	0.83%
Home runs /BIP	4.46%	÷1.000	×0.800	—	×1.045	3.73%

Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 19 vs a level average of 22.0 → +4.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.0 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.978.

Result: wOBA .390 → .327; ISO .187 → .160; BABIP .306 → .277. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2026 AAKnoxville Smokies · 15 PAwOBA .211 → .175 (−35)K% 20.0% → 24.4%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	20.00%	÷1.000	×1.220	—	—	24.40%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	20.00%	÷1.000	×0.680	—	×1.050	14.28%
HBP% /PA	0.00%	—	×0.840	—	×1.050	0.00%
Singles /BIP	12.50%	÷1.000	×0.920	—	×1.050	12.08%
Doubles /BIP	0.00%	÷1.000	×0.910	—	×1.050	0.00%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷1.000	×0.880	—	×1.050	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	0.00%	÷1.000	×0.800	—	×1.050	0.00%

Factors used: league row SL. Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 19 vs a level average of 24.8 → +5.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (5.8 yr younger than average).

Result: wOBA .211 → .175; ISO .000 → .000; BABIP .111 → .109. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	162s	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Ron Gant'87-'03 * career totals — 15 seasons, 7,320 PA	11.0	7,320	321	243	249*	328*	478*	-50	-5	30.8	27.6
/162	664	29	22	-4.6	-0.5	2.8	pk7: 24
#2Nick Swisherlast yr '15 career totals — 12 seasons, 6,308 PA	9.5	6,308	245	13	249	351	447	-62	-56	24.5	24.4
/162	664	26	1	-6.5	-5.9	2.6	pk7: 24
#3Jeromy Burnitz'93-'06 * career totals — 13 seasons, 6,579 PA	9.9	6,579	315	74	243*	330*	466*	-62	-31	22.9	21.7
/162	664	32	7	-6.3	-3.1	2.3	pk7: 20
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 10 projected seasons	8.0	5,318	198	72	245	335	432	-32	-18	20.7	18.1
/162	664	25	9	-4.0	-2.3	2.6	pk7: 16
#4Brad Wilkersonlast yr '08 career totals — 8 seasons, 3,753 PA	5.7	3,753	122	53	247	350	440	-35	-8	15.8	16.3
/162	664	22	9	-6.2	-1.4	2.8	pk7: 17
#5Cody Rosslast yr '14 career totals — 9 seasons, 3,733 PA	5.6	3,733	131	33	264	324	449	-13	-12	15.1	15.6
/162	664	23	6	-2.3	-2.1	2.7	pk7: 16
#6Curt Blefary'65-'72 * career totals — 8 seasons, 3,490 PA	5.3	3,490	112	24	246*	352*	447*	-36	+3	14.1	14.4
/162	664	21	5	-6.9	+0.6	2.7	pk7: 15

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Josiah Hartshorn (OGILVIE)	20	—	—	—	—	237/333/416	178	290	7	4	25%	11%	113	+0.8	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Jaff Decker 2011 · A	21	48→52	55	45→55	52	242/334/429	186	315	22	7	29%	11%	116	+2.5	215/301/366	151	287	17	9	29%	10%	90	+0.6	231/308/347	116	299	10	13	24%	9%	86	+0.2
✕Edgar Quero 2023 · A	20	50→58	50	47→40	51	245/343/412	167	321	17	8	27%	10%	116	+2.5	248/329/371	123	310	12	3	22%	9%	101	+1.4	253/330/357	104	310	11	1	21%	9%	97	+0.8
✕Adael Amador 2024 · AA	21	52→56	48→50	49→55	54	257/333/399	142	291	15	16	17%	9%	109	+2.0	235/310/364	129	275	14	21	19%	9%	92	+0.7	231/310/357	126	266	13	22	18%	9%	88	+0.4
●Andy Pages 2022 · A	21	42→52	59→60	45→50	47	225/317/433	209	295	27	6	32%	10%	112	+2.2	225/305/404	179	293	21	7	29%	8%	100	+1.3	269/326/453	184	315	23	10	22%	6%	121	+2.8
●Gleyber Torres 2019 · MLB	22	51→55	53→60	46→50	47	259/324/431	172	322	20	10	26%	8%	113	+2.3	262/329/447	185	304	24	9	22%	9%	118	+2.7	259/345/399	140	294	17	6	17%	11%	114	+2.6
●Wander Franco 2022 · MLB	21	56→60	49→55	49→55	52	276/331/440	164	297	14	9	13%	7%	117	+2.6	272/329/439	167	293	16	20	13%	8%	116	+2.5	276/335/445	169	294	16	27	12%	8%	120	+2.0
●Miguel Sanó 2013 · A	20	40→50	54→70	46→45	43	211/285/395	184	296	22	5	35%	9%	91	+0.6	230/313/454	224	319	28	7	35%	10%	114	+2.4	244/332/473	229	340	30	2	35%	11%	126	+2.9
●Colby Rasmus 2008 · AA	21	45→54	53→65	54→50	47	233/303/412	180	281	20	15	25%	8%	101	+1.4	238/304/402	164	285	19	12	23%	8%	99	+1.2	243/309/466	223	315	29	3	32%	8%	116	+1.9
●Tyler Soderstrom 2022 · A	20	51→52	50→60	47→40	42	249/309/414	165	347	17	6	32%	7%	103	+1.5	227/279/411	184	296	24	2	31%	6%	92	+0.7	249/327/456	208	287	26	4	23%	9%	120	+2.2
●Wil Myers 2011 · A	20	52→54	48→60	47→55	50	255/328/404	148	325	14	8	25%	9%	107	+1.9	247/312/409	162	319	18	8	27%	8%	103	+1.5	251/327/458	207	310	25	22	26%	10%	120	+2.7
●Derek Norris 2010 · A	21	45→55	52→55	45→50	49	228/310/392	164	299	20	5	30%	10%	99	+1.3	209/309/374	165	282	20	9	31%	12%	95	+1.0	257/333/410	152	314	16	5	22%	9%	112	+1.6
✕George Valera 2022 · AA	21	44→43	52→50	49→45	52	221/322/385	164	301	20	12	32%	12%	102	+1.5	215/299/365	150	300	18	6	32%	10%	88	+0.5	222/290/363	141	290	16	5	28%	8%	82	+0.0
✕Eric Arce 2012 · A	20	41	55→60	47→30	47	214/312/402	188	287	23	4	32%	10%	103	+1.5	198/287/352	154	334	18	4	42%	10%	82	-0.0	140/248/285	145	254	20	0	49%	11%	51	-0.6
●B.J. Upton 2005 · MLB	20	51→60	48→60	52→60	48	249/316/400	151	316	15	13	25%	8%	103	+1.5	268/339/415	147	343	15	32	24%	9%	114	+2.3	264/354/415	151	338	15	35	24%	12%	120	+2.9
●Eddie Rosario 2013 · A	21	50→55	50→60	48→50	42	250/290/412	162	302	17	12	23%	5%	95	+1.0	248/281/388	140	311	12	10	24%	4%	86	+0.3	279/311/486	207	297	28	7	17%	4%	123	+2.9
●Junior Caminero 2024 · MLB	21	51→55	55→65	47→45	43	265/312/442	176	315	24	7	24%	6%	111	+2.1	259/309/471	212	287	30	6	22%	6%	117	+2.6	256/314/491	234	268	35	4	20%	7%	124	+3.1
●Corey Patterson 2001 · MLB	21	45→54	53→55	47→60	46	233/302/403	170	288	21	12	27%	8%	99	+1.2	245/287/393	148	297	17	16	23%	4%	90	+0.6	263/300/434	170	320	18	24	23%	4%	105	+1.6
●Jason Heyward 2010 · AA	20	56→59	50→55	53→50	48	277/329/441	164	318	16	9	18%	7%	116	+2.5	263/347/444	181	310	20	12	21%	11%	124	+3.1	258/348/449	191	304	22	14	22%	11%	126	+3.1
★Justin Upton 2009 · MLB	21	49→59	52→65	47→55	48	245/317/421	176	315	18	9	27%	9%	107	+1.9	271/342/469	198	336	22	16	25%	9%	128	+3.3	276/350/481	205	329	24	19	23%	9%	135	+3.9
✕Francisco Alvarez 2022 · A	20	47	60	44→40	48	247/332/466	219	308	28	8	29%	9%	124	+3.1	235/312/440	205	291	28	4	29%	9%	112	+2.2	229/307/433	203	277	28	2	28%	9%	108	+1.3

Josiah Hartshorn

Career Stats + Projections

How the minor-league lines were translated

Career Comps

Career Path Comps