José Soriano — OGILVIE

José Soriano P Los Angeles Angels

+2.4 WAR

Age 27 RHP 6'3" / 220 lbs MLB Svc 3.0 · Ctrl thru 2028 peak 2.8 · 2027

ERA4.00

FIP4.07

xFIP2.81

SIERA3.00

K%21.4%

BB%10.4%

K-BB%11.1%

IP160

trajectory · 10 yrs

2.8peak

2027

K†6065

FB Velo

p9097.9

Whiff%

p9033.5%

p9030.7%

xwOBA vs

p900.265

FB+8.6 (53%)

SI (28%)

CU (25%)

SL (5%)

Career (MLE) + Projections

Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	K%	BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
2016	17	ROK	DSL Angels	14	14	57	236	45	30	2	13.0%	15.9%	1.2%	1.58	4.67	+0.2
2017	18	ROK	Orem Owlz	13	11	52	218	39	18	2	12.2%	10.3%	1.3%	2.92	4.09	+0.5
2018	19	A	Burlington Bees	14	14	46	198	42	35	1	15.7%	20.9%	0.7%	4.47	4.82	+0.1
2019	20	A	Burlington Bees	20	18	82	346	92	51	5	19.2%	17.5%	2.1%	2.51	4.85	+0.3
2021	22	A	Bradenton Marauders	2	2	4	20	6	3	0	—	—	—	14.73	—	—
2022	23	A	Inland Empire 66ers	7	7	13	52	17	4	0	—	—	—	2.08	—	—
2023	24	MLB	Los Angeles Angels	55	2	65	289	87	37	5	28.1%	13.4%	1.7%	3.86	3.38	+1.2
2024	25	MLB	Los Angeles Angels	22	20	113	468	97	44	8	20.7%	9.4%	1.7%	3.42	3.48	+2.3
2025	26	MLB	Los Angeles Angels	31	31	169	724	152	78	12	21.0%	10.8%	1.7%	4.26	3.65	+3.2
▸ 2026 Season
2026	27	MLB	Los Angeles Angels	4	4	27	97	31	8	1	32.0%	8.2%	1.0%	0.33	2.01	+0.9
ROS	27	MLB	LAA	22	22	122	516	141	51	10	27.3%	9.9%	1.9%	3.23	3.08	+3.1
2026 Total	27	MLB	LAA	—	—	149	613	172	59	11	28.1%	9.6%	1.8%	2.71	2.89	+4.1
▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging
2027	28	MLB	LAA	25	25	139	586	158	58	11	27.0%	10.0%	1.9%	3.58	3.53	+2.8
2028	29	MLB	LAA	23	23	126	533	141	53	11	26.5%	10.0%	2.0%	3.60	3.61	+2.4
2029	30	MLB	LAA	21	21	114	480	125	49	10	26.0%	10.1%	2.1%	3.66	3.70	+2.1
2030	31	MLB	LAA	19	19	102	431	109	44	9	25.4%	10.3%	2.1%	3.74	3.80	+1.7
2031	32	MLB	LAA	17	17	91	385	95	40	8	24.8%	10.4%	2.2%	3.85	3.92	+1.3
2032	33	MLB	LAA	15	15	81	342	82	36	8	24.1%	10.6%	2.3%	3.97	4.04	+1.0
2033	34	MLB	LAA	13	13	72	302	77	30	7	25.4%	10.0%	2.4%	3.94	3.91	+0.9
2034	35	MLB	LAA	11	11	63	265	65	27	7	24.7%	10.2%	2.5%	4.01	4.06	+0.7
2035	36	MLB	LAA	55	—	55	231	55	24	6	23.9%	10.5%	2.6%	4.14	4.23	+0.4
2036	37	MLB	LAA	47	—	47	199	46	21	5	23.1%	10.8%	2.8%	4.30	4.40	+0.3
2037	38	MLB	LAA	40	—	40	170	38	19	5	22.2%	11.1%	2.9%	4.47	4.59	+0.2
▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected)
Career	—			182	123	629	2648	539	338	41	20.4%	12.7%	1.5%	3.35	3.85	+10.4
/ 200 IP	—			58	39	200	842	171	107	13	20.4%	12.7%	1.5%	3.35	3.85	+3.3

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
José Soriano (OGILVIE)	—	—	3.86	24.7%	10.4%	2.1%	—	3.61	26.5%	16.5%	379	-0.25	—	—	—
Tyler Chatwood R 2026 · 4.53 FIP	27	SP	4.53	19.0%	11.9%	2.8%	.279	4.56	20.6%	5.2%	199	+0.03	3.32	537	58
Hiram Burgos R 2026 · 3.42 FIP	27	SP	3.42	19.7%	9.5%	1.4%	.282	4.34	17.2%	8.6%	206	+0.92	3.42	355	57
Nate Long R 2028 · 4.69 FIP	29	SP	4.69	14.8%	10.6%	2.7%	.285	—	—	—	—	—	4.69	151	57
Bradin Hagens R 2025 · 3.79 FIP	26	SP	3.79	14.6%	9.8%	1.2%	.277	4.94	14.9%	5.0%	55	+1.15	3.79	254	57
Kyle Drabek R 2026 · 3.93 FIP	27	SP	3.93	12.8%	9.6%	1.2%	.271	4.17	11.3%	0.7%	69	+0.24	3.93	206	56
Garrett Richards R 2026 · 3.67 FIP	27	SP	3.67	20.3%	8.6%	2.2%	.271	3.44	25.5%	16.1%	139	-0.23	2.27	577	55
Juan Carlos Sulbaran R 2025 · 4.69 FIP	26	SP	4.69	15.0%	8.9%	3.1%	.289	—	—	—	—	—	4.69	278	55
Manuel Flores R 2028 · 4.00 FIP	29	SP	4.00	13.8%	7.1%	2.1%	.317	3.58	14.4%	9.2%	263	-0.42	3.48	515	54
Yordano Ventura R 2024 · 4.51 FIP	25	SP	4.51	17.6%	9.4%	3.1%	.292	—	—	—	—	—	3.40	349	54
Greg Peavey R 2026 · 4.37 FIP	27	SP	4.37	11.2%	6.5%	2.5%	.289	—	—	—	—	—	4.37	147	54
Mario Gonzalez R 2027 · 4.36 FIP	28	SP	4.36	12.6%	6.0%	2.9%	.302	4.12	16.2%	10.8%	233	-0.24	3.93	368	54
Chase Anderson R 2026 · 4.07 FIP	27	SP	4.07	17.3%	5.9%	3.1%	.296	4.40	20.5%	12.5%	451	+0.33	3.30	1,146	53
Brandon Sinnery R 2024 · 4.75 FIP	25	SP	4.75	11.0%	6.9%	3.1%	.296	—	—	—	—	—	4.75	154	53
Toru Murata R 2029 · 4.02 FIP	30	SP	4.02	13.3%	6.9%	2.1%	.261	3.63	12.9%	7.2%	102	-0.39	3.63	267	53
Andrew Cashner R 2027 · 3.62 FIP	28	SP	3.62	20.5%	8.0%	2.3%	.326	4.63	15.0%	5.7%	452	+1.01	3.62	786	53
Tom Koehler R 2028 · 4.43 FIP	29	SP	4.43	17.1%	9.2%	2.9%	.279	4.50	20.3%	10.8%	287	+0.07	4.37	474	53
Ryne Nelson R 2026 · 3.72 FIP	27	SP	3.72	21.3%	6.6%	2.9%	.249	4.97	22.1%	12.8%	20	+1.25	3.54	761	53
Jimmy Nelson R 2026 · 4.62 FIP	27	SP	4.62	17.3%	10.4%	3.0%	.289	3.17	27.2%	18.6%	238	-1.45	1.32	650	53
Rafael Montero R 2025 · 3.94 FIP	26	SP	3.94	22.0%	11.2%	2.3%	.339	3.53	28.7%	22.8%	47	-0.41	2.40	643	52
Josh Lowey R 2029 · 3.33 FIP	30	SP	3.33	21.1%	7.8%	1.8%	.311	2.31	26.7%	20.1%	231	-1.02	2.25	426	52

Contract

ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status Arb-1

MLB Debut 2023

Service 3.703 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2028

First FA Year 2027

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	Arb-1	$3M	+2.4	$19M	+$16M
2027	Arb-2	$10M	+2.8	$23M	+$13M
2028	Arb-3	$13M	+2.4	$20M	+$8M
Totals		$25M		$63M	+$37M