Hayden Alvarez

CF Rancho Cucamonga Quakes
Age 20 R/R 6'3" / 190 lbs A K +5%HR +4% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2034
Overview
APROSPECTMiLBFA 2035
OGV OFP40OGV rank#249ETA2029MLB%0%
YearAgeLvl / TeamPAAVG/OBP/SLGHRSBwRC+WARMLE AVG/OBP/SLG
202417ROKLAA217.250/.368/.35813234—.161/.254/.215
202518A/ROK2 orgs297.340/.439/.43023392—.276/.346/.345
202619A+/ALAA551.289/.393/.456125394—.242/.324/.373
2027PROJMLE20MLBLAA625.231/.312/.3451026880.2
2028PROJ34% MLB21MLBLAA178.235/.317/.36137940.3
2029PROJ48% MLB22MLBLAA267.239/.321/.373610980.7
Next 3 projected WAR 1.2Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.
ContractESTIMATED
Control thru2034Service0.0First FA2035
2027MiLB2028MiLB2029Pre-Arb$0.8M2030Pre-Arb$0.8M2031Pre-Arb$0.9M2032Arb-1$5M2033Arb-2$8M2034Arb-3$12M
Skills · percentileMiLB Statcast 2026 A+
K%82
BB%72
Whiff%69
Chase%67
wRC+57
Speed56
Career WAR0.9 WAR median (P10 -0.4 / P90 43, comp-based) · star 16% · didn't stick 54%
CompsLuke Adams (age 20) · Adrian Pinto (age 20) · Jett Williams (age 20)
2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 210 proj PA
wRC+†88
AVG/OBP/SLG.229 / .310 / .342
PA210
HR3
SB9
K%23
BB%10
ISO114
MLB%0%
Value2027 · WAR
BAT: -3.1 runs (wOBA-derived runs vs avg)-3BATRUN: +1.4 runs (SB/CS + UBR baserunning)+1RUNFLD: -0.9 runs (Defensive runs vs avg)-1FLDPOS: +0.7 runs (Positional adjustment)+1POSREP: +4.5 runs (Replacement-level credit)+5REPTotal WAR: +0.20+0.2WAR
0.01.02.00.30.70.91.01.11.11.127282930313233343536
━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control+$22M ctrl surplus
Contract
Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)
Status   MiLB
MLB Debut   2029
Service   0 yrs (est)
Team Control Through   2034
First FA Year   2035
YearStatusSalary Proj WAR Value Surplus
2027MiLBstill in minors · estimated debut 2029
2028MiLBstill in minors · estimated debut 2029
2029Pre-Arb$0.8M+0.7$2M+$2M
2030Pre-Arb$0.8M+0.9$3M+$2M
2031Pre-Arb$0.9M+1.0$6M+$5M
2032Arb-1$5M+1.1$6M+$3M
2033Arb-2$8M+1.1$6M+$1M
2034Arb-3$12M+1.1$5M+$0.0M (cut)
Totals $16M $28M +$14M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.
basis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

YearAge LvlTeam MLB% PAAB H2B3BHR BBSOHBP SBCS AVGOBPSLGOPS ISOBABIP K%BB% wOBAwRC+ BATRUNFLDPOSREP WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
202417 ROKDSL Angels — 217176 441031 31352 326 250368358726 108301 1614 323 34 — — — — — —
202518 AInland Empire 66ers — 7662 22500 1082 94 355459435895 81407 1113 398 123 — — — — — —
202518 ROKACL Angels — 221182 61532 31411 245 335433429861 93413 1914 380 81 — — — — — —
202619 A+Tri-City Dust Devils — 10589 23601 15191 71 258371360731 101319 1814 338 74 — — — — — —
202619 ARancho Cucamonga Quakes — 446378 11226511 60904 4610 296398479877 183361 2013 387 99 — — — — — —
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
202417 ROK MLEDSL Angels — 217186 30620 21412 326 161254215469 54194 1910 219 34 — — — — — —
202518 A MLEInland Empire 66ers — 7665 21400 7112 94 323405385790 62379 149 350 123 — — — — — —
202518 ROK MLEACL Angels — 221196 51422 18611 245 260326332657 71341 288 288 81 — — — — — —
202619 A+ MLETri-City Dust Devils — 10593 21501 11261 71 226314312626 86295 2510 277 74 — — — — — —
202619 A MLERancho Cucamonga Quakes — 446395 972149 431224 4610 246326387713 142329 2710 314 99 — — — — — —
202417 ROK MLEDSL Angels — 217186 30620 21412 326 161254215469 54203 1910 219 34 — — — — — —
202417 ROK RAWDSL Angels — 217176 441031 31352 326 250368358726 108301 1614 323 34 — — — — — —
202518 ROK MLE2 teams — 297261 72822 25723 339 276346345691 69366 248 304 92 — — — — — —
202518 ROK RAW2 teams — 297244 831032 41493 339 340439430870 90411 1614 384 92 — — — — — —
202619 A MLE2 teams — 551488 11826410 541485 5311 242324373697 131324 2710 307 94 — — — — — —
202619 A RAW2 teams — 551467 13532512 751095 5311 289393456849 167352 2014 377 94 — — — — — —
202417 ROK MLEDSL Angels — 217192 30620 21412 326 156254208462 52194 1910 219 34 — — — — — —
202518 ROK MLE2 teams — 297267 72822 25723 339 270346337683 67351 248 304 92 — — — — — —
202619 A MLE2 teams — 551487 11826410 541485 5311 242324374697 131323 2710 307 94 — — — — — —
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons)
202417 ROK MLEDSL Angels — 217192 30620 21412 326 156254208462 52194 1910 219 34 — — — — — —
202518 ROK MLE2 teams — 297267 72822 25723 339 270346337683 67351 248 304 92 — — — — — —
202619 A MLE2 teams — 551487 11826410 541485 5311 242324374697 131323 2710 307 94 — — — — — —
▸ 2027 season
▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability)
202720 MLB MLELAA 0% 625555 12826410 601425 266 231312345657 114291 2310 298 88 -9 +3 -3 +2 +14 0.2
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
202821 MLB MLELAA 34% 517457 10822310 501145 205 237318363682 127292 2210 307 94 -4 +2 -2 +2 +11 0.9
202922 MLB MLELAA 48% 552488 11924412 541205 205 240323375698 135292 2210 313 98 -1 +2 -2 +2 +12 1.3
203023 MLB MLELAA 54% 575508 12425413 571235 194 243325383708 140293 2110 318 101 +1 +2 -1 +2 +12 1.7
203124 MLB MLELAA 55% 578511 12625414 571235 184 245327389716 144294 2110 320 103 +2 +2 -0 +2 +13 1.9
203225 MLB MLELAA 56% 590522 12825415 581255 174 245327392719 146294 2110 322 104 +3 +2 +0 +2 +13 2.0
203326 MLB MLELAA 56% 599530 13126415 591275 164 245327391718 146293 2110 321 104 +3 +2 +0 +2 +13 2.0
203427 MLB MLELAA 55% 596527 12825414 591285 154 244326388715 145293 2110 320 103 +2 +1 +0 +2 +13 1.9
203528 MLB MLELAA 55% 585517 12525314 581275 133 242324384708 142292 2210 317 101 +1 +1 -0 +2 +13 1.7
203629 MLB MLELAA 53% 568502 12024313 561245 113 239321377698 138290 2210 313 98 -1 +1 -1 +2 +12 1.3
203730 MLB MLELAA 53% 552489 11623312 541234 93 236318369687 133288 2210 309 95 -3 +1 -2 +2 +12 1.0
203831 MLB MLELAA 52% 534473 11122311 521214 73 232313359672 127285 2310 303 91 -6 +0 -2 +2 +12 0.6
202821 MLB CTXLAA 34% 178157 36713 17392 72 235317361678 126289 2210 306 94 -1 +1 -1 +1 +4 0.3
202922 MLB CTXLAA 48% 267237 571126 26582 102 239321373694 134290 2210 312 98 -1 +1 -1 +1 +6 0.7
203023 MLB CTXLAA 54% 312275 671327 31673 112 241324381705 140290 2110 316 101 +0 +1 -1 +1 +7 0.9
203124 MLB CTXLAA 55% 320282 691328 32683 102 243325387712 144291 2110 319 103 +1 +1 -0 +1 +7 1.0
203225 MLB CTXLAA 56% 330292 711428 32703 102 244326390716 146291 2110 320 104 +1 +1 +0 +1 +7 1.1
203326 MLB CTXLAA 56% 337298 721428 33723 92 244326389715 146291 2110 320 104 +1 +1 +0 +1 +7 1.1
203427 MLB CTXLAA 55% 330291 711428 33713 82 242325387711 144290 2210 319 103 +1 +1 +0 +1 +7 1.1
203528 MLB CTXLAA 55% 321283 691328 32693 72 241323382705 141289 2110 316 101 +0 +1 -0 +1 +7 0.9
203629 MLB CTXLAA 53% 303267 641227 30663 62 238320375695 137288 2210 312 98 -1 +0 -1 +1 +7 0.7
203730 MLB CTXLAA 53% 290258 601126 28642 51 235316367683 132286 2210 307 95 -2 +1 -1 +1 +6 0.5
203831 MLB CTXLAA 52% 278247 571116 27632 31 231311357668 126283 2310 301 91 -3 +0 -1 +1 +6 0.3
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career— A+C — 32662887 6931332075 32170729 8620 240322378700 138291 2210 314 96 -1 +9 -5 +12 +71 8.7
/ 162G— A+C — 650575 13826415 641416 174 240323377700 137291 2210 314 96 -0 +2 -1 +2 +14 1.7
Career— MLE — 75216645 159931548158 734166465 29270 241322374696 133296 2210 311 96 -8 +17 -11 +23 +140 16.5
/ 162G— MLE — 650574 13827414 631446 256 240322375696 134295 2210 311 96 -1 +2 -1 +2 +14 1.7

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 ARancho Cucamonga Quakes · 446 PAwOBA .380 → .314 (−65)K% 20.2% → 27.4%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA20.18%÷1.000×1.360——27.44%
BB% (unintentional) /PA13.45%÷1.000×0.690—×1.0459.70%
HBP% /PA0.90%—×0.780—×1.0450.73%
Singles /BIP24.31%÷1.000×0.920×0.980×1.04522.91%
Doubles /BIP9.03%÷1.000×0.830×0.980×1.0457.68%
Triples /BIP1.74%÷1.000×0.910×0.980×1.0451.62%
Home runs /BIP3.82%÷1.000×0.800—×1.0453.19%

Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 19 vs a level average of 22.0 → +4.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.0 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.980.

Result: wOBA .380 → .314; ISO .183 → .150; BABIP .361 → .329. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2026 A+Tri-City Dust Devils · 105 PAwOBA .330 → .277 (−53)K% 18.1% → 24.4%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA18.10%÷1.000×1.350——24.43%
BB% (unintentional) /PA14.29%÷1.000×0.710—×1.05010.65%
HBP% /PA0.95%—×0.810—×1.0500.81%
Singles /BIP22.86%÷1.000×0.910×0.994×1.05021.71%
Doubles /BIP8.57%÷1.000×0.830×0.994×1.0507.43%
Triples /BIP0.00%÷1.000×0.820×0.994×1.0500.00%
Home runs /BIP1.43%÷1.000×0.830—×1.0501.24%

Factors used: level-wide A+ factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 19 vs a level average of 22.8 → +5.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.994.

Result: wOBA .330 → .277; ISO .101 → .084; BABIP .319 → .295. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 ROKACL Angels · 221 PAwOBA .378 → .288 (−90)K% 18.6% → 27.6%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA18.55%÷0.969×1.440——27.58%
BB% (unintentional) /PA14.03%÷1.082×0.620—×1.0228.22%
HBP% /PA0.45%—×0.720—×1.0220.33%
Singles /BIP36.17%÷1.015×0.820×1.021×1.02230.51%
Doubles /BIP3.55%÷0.992×0.720×1.021×1.0222.69%
Triples /BIP2.13%÷1.134×0.720×1.021×1.0221.41%
Home runs /BIP1.42%÷0.873×0.780—×1.0221.30%

Factors used: level-wide ROK factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 75, 1B 103, 2B 98, 3B 127, K 94, BB 116 — applied at half strength. Age: age 18 vs a level average of 19.5 → +2.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.5 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.021.

Result: wOBA .378 → .288; ISO .093 → .073; BABIP .413 → .341. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 AInland Empire 66ers · 76 PAwOBA .389 → .350 (−39)K% 10.5% → 14.2%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA10.53%÷1.008×1.360——14.20%
BB% (unintentional) /PA13.16%÷1.011×0.690—×1.0509.43%
HBP% /PA2.63%—×0.780—×1.0502.16%
Singles /BIP31.48%÷1.066×0.920×1.050×1.05029.94%
Doubles /BIP9.26%÷1.065×0.830×1.050×1.0507.96%
Triples /BIP0.00%÷0.997×0.910×1.050×1.0500.00%
Home runs /BIP0.00%÷1.036×0.800—×1.0500.00%

Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 107, 1B 113, 2B 113, 3B 99, K 102, BB 102 — applied at half strength. Age: age 18 vs a level average of 22.0 → +5.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (4.0 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.050.

Result: wOBA .389 → .350; ISO .081 → .072; BABIP .407 → .379. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 DSLDSL Angels · 217 PAwOBA .320 → .219 (−101)K% 16.1% → 19.0%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA16.13%÷1.038×1.220——18.96%
BB% (unintentional) /PA14.29%÷1.064×0.700—×1.0229.61%
HBP% /PA0.92%—×0.700—×1.0220.66%
Singles /BIP21.28%÷1.052×0.680×1.013×1.02214.25%
Doubles /BIP7.09%÷1.081×0.600×1.013×1.0224.08%
Triples /BIP2.13%÷0.961×0.600×1.013×1.0221.38%
Home runs /BIP0.71%÷1.068×0.470—×1.0220.32%

Factors used: level-wide DSL factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 114, 1B 110, 2B 116, 3B 92, K 108, BB 113 — applied at half strength. Age: age 17 vs a level average of 18.5 → +2.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.5 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.013.

Result: wOBA .320 → .219; ISO .108 → .068; BABIP .301 → .194. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).