Hayden Alvarez — OGILVIE

Hayden AlvarezOF Rancho Cucamonga Quakes

Age 19 R/R 6'3" / 190 lbs A HR -4% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2034

2026 ROS PROJECTION379 act + 252 ros · stats below = ROS only

wRC+†84

AVG/OBP/SLG.235 / .311 / .350

PA252

HR4

SB18

K%27

BB%9

BABIP315

ISO115

MLB%0%

Value2026 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control

Tools · ContractCON 51 / POW 42

Toolsscout grade

CONTACT51

scouting grade only

POWER42

scouting grade only

EYE58

scouting grade only

SPEED57

scouting grade only

DEFENSE51

scouting grade only

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2029

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2034

First FA Year 2035

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2029	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+1.5	$10M	+$9M
2030	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+1.7	$10M	+$9M
2031	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+1.8	$10M	+$9M
2032	Arb-1	$4M	+1.9	$10M	+$8M
2033	Arb-2	$6M	+1.9	$9M	+$6M
2034	Arb-3	$9M	+1.9	$8M	+$4M
Totals		$22M		$56M	+$45M

Career Stats + Projections

Viewactual = stats as recorded (prior seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2024	17	ROK	DSL Angels	—	217	190	35	7	3	1	17	47	2	32	6	184	258	268	527	84	234	22	8	225	30	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	17	ROK	DSL Angels	—	217	176	44	10	3	1	31	35	2	32	6	250	368	358	726	108	301	16	14	323	105	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	18	ROK	2 teams	—	297	263	69	8	2	2	23	74	3	33	9	262	329	331	660	68	351	25	8	287	78	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	18	ROK	2 teams	—	297	244	83	10	3	2	41	49	3	33	9	340	439	430	870	90	411	16	14	384	152	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2026 Season (ACT · ROS-MLE · ROS-CTX · FULL)
YTD	19	A	LAA	—	379	338	82	17	3	8	36	110	3	39	9	243	321	382	703	139	335	29	9	304	91	-4	+4	+0	-2	+11	0.9
YTD	19	A	LAA	—	379	323	98	22	4	9	51	82	3	39	9	303	403	480	883	176	382	22	13	391	157	+25	+4	+0	-2	+11	3.8
ROS	19	A	LAA	0%	252	225	53	10	2	4	23	67	2	18	4	235	311	350	661	115	310	27	9	296	84	-4	+2	-0	-2	+7	0.3
ROS	19	MLB	LAA	0%	0	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0		—		—		309	—	—	289	79	—	—	-0	-0	—	—
FULL	19	A	LAA	—	379	339	82	17	3	8	36	110	3	39	9	242	321	381	701	139	333	29	9	304	91	-4	+4	+0	-2	+11	0.9
TOT	19	A	LAA	—	631	563	135	27	5	12	59	177	5	57	13	240	317	369	686	130	327	28	9	301	88	-8	+6	-0	-4	+18	1.2
▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘPARK-NEUTRAL MLE · ALL-LEVEL PT ⓘ
2027	20	MLB	LAA	34%	581	518	122	23	4	10	53	151	5	24	6	236	312	353	666	118	309	26	9	300	88	-8	+2	-1	-3	+16	0.7
2028	21	MLB	LAA	48%	609	542	130	24	4	13	56	154	6	22	5	240	318	371	689	131	308	25	9	309	94	-4	+2	-1	-4	+17	1.1
2029	22	MLB	LAA	54%	627	557	135	25	4	14	59	155	6	21	5	242	322	377	699	135	308	25	9	314	99	-1	+2	-1	-4	+18	1.5
2030	23	MLB	LAA	57%	638	567	139	26	4	15	60	155	6	19	5	245	324	384	708	139	308	24	9	318	102	+1	+2	-1	-4	+18	1.7
2031	24	MLB	LAA	57%	637	566	140	26	4	16	60	153	6	18	4	247	326	392	718	145	309	24	9	321	104	+3	+2	-1	-4	+18	1.8
2032	25	MLB	LAA	57%	629	558	138	25	4	16	60	151	6	17	4	247	327	392	719	145	309	24	10	323	105	+4	+2	-1	-4	+18	1.9
2033	26	MLB	LAA	56%	624	553	137	25	4	16	60	149	6	16	4	248	328	394	722	146	309	24	10	323	106	+4	+2	-1	-4	+18	1.9
2034	27	MLB	LAA	55%	621	550	136	25	4	16	60	149	6	16	4	247	328	395	722	147	309	24	10	323	106	+4	+2	-1	-4	+18	1.9
2035	28	MLB	LAA	55%	615	544	135	25	4	16	60	149	6	15	3	248	330	397	727	149	308	24	10	322	105	+3	+2	-2	-4	+17	1.8
2036	29	MLB	LAA	53%	603	533	131	24	4	15	59	147	6	14	3	246	328	390	718	144	308	24	10	320	103	+2	+2	-2	-4	+17	1.5
2037	30	MLB	LAA	53%	592	522	127	23	4	14	59	146	6	12	3	243	327	383	710	140	306	25	10	318	101	+1	+1	-3	-4	+17	1.2
2038	31	MLB	LAA	52%	577	510	122	22	3	14	57	144	5	11	3	239	322	376	698	137	304	25	10	313	98	-1	+1	-4	-3	+16	0.9
2039	32	MLB	LAA	56%	559	494	117	21	3	13	55	141	5	10	2	237	319	370	690	134	301	25	10	308	94	-4	+1	-4	-3	+16	0.5
2027	20	MLB	LAA	34%	200	178	41	8	1	3	18	52	2	8	2	230	308	337	645	107	308	26	9	292	82	-4	+1	-0	-1	+6	0.1
2028	21	MLB	LAA	48%	295	263	63	12	2	6	27	74	3	11	3	240	317	369	686	129	307	25	9	300	88	-4	+1	-0	-2	+8	0.3
2029	22	MLB	LAA	54%	340	302	73	13	2	8	32	84	3	11	3	242	320	377	698	136	307	25	9	306	92	-3	+1	-1	-2	+10	0.5
2030	23	MLB	LAA	57%	361	321	78	14	2	9	34	88	3	11	3	243	321	383	704	140	307	24	9	310	95	-2	+1	-1	-2	+10	0.7
2031	24	MLB	LAA	57%	360	320	78	14	2	9	34	87	3	10	2	244	322	384	707	141	308	24	9	312	97	-1	+1	-1	-2	+10	0.8
2032	25	MLB	LAA	57%	355	315	77	14	2	9	34	85	3	10	2	244	324	387	711	143	308	24	10	314	98	-1	+1	-1	-2	+10	0.8
2033	26	MLB	LAA	56%	353	313	77	14	2	9	34	85	3	9	2	246	326	390	715	144	308	24	10	314	99	-0	+1	-1	-2	+10	0.8
2034	27	MLB	LAA	55%	344	305	76	14	2	9	33	83	3	9	2	249	328	397	725	148	308	24	10	315	99	-0	+1	-1	-2	+10	0.8
2035	28	MLB	LAA	55%	338	299	72	13	2	8	33	82	3	8	2	241	322	378	700	137	307	24	10	314	98	-1	+1	-1	-2	+10	0.7
2036	29	MLB	LAA	53%	322	284	70	13	2	8	32	78	3	7	2	246	329	391	720	144	306	24	10	312	97	-1	+1	-1	-2	+9	0.5
2037	30	MLB	LAA	53%	312	275	66	12	2	7	31	77	3	7	2	240	324	375	698	135	305	25	10	309	95	-2	+1	-2	-2	+9	0.4
2038	31	MLB	LAA	52%	301	265	63	11	2	7	30	75	3	6	1	238	322	374	696	136	303	25	10	305	92	-3	+1	-2	-2	+9	0.3
2039	32	MLB	LAA	56%	314	277	65	11	2	7	31	79	3	6	1	235	318	365	683	130	300	25	10	300	88	-4	+1	-2	-2	+9	0.1
▸ Career Totals
Career	—			—	4195	3718	899	163	25	99	403	1029	38	113	27	242	322	379	701	137	306	25	10	309	94	-27	+12	-12	-25	+119	6.8
/ 162G	—			—	650	576	139	25	4	15	62	159	6	18	4	241	321	377	698	135	305	24	10	309	94	-4	+2	-2	-4	+18	1.1
Career	—			—	8678	7692	1866	339	57	195	821	2132	82	298	70	243	322	378	700	135	309	25	9	313	97	-25	+32	-23	-52	+246	18.1
/ 162G	—			—	650	576	139	25	4	15	61	160	6	22	5	241	320	377	697	135	306	25	9	313	97	-2	+2	-2	-4	+18	1.4

Historical Stats — Raw (Per Stint)

Actual MLB + MiLB stats as they happened, one row per stint at each level. Use this to see what really got recorded; the table above shows MLB-equivalent translations + projections.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2024	17	ROK	DSL Angels	—	217	176	44	10	3	1	31	35	2	32	6	250	368	358	726	108	301	16	14	323	105	+1	+4	—	—	+6	1.2
2025	18	A	Inland Empire 66ers	—	76	62	22	5	0	0	10	8	2	9	4	355	459	435	895	81	407	11	13	398	163	+5	+0	—	—	+2	0.8
2025	18	ROK	ACL Angels	—	221	182	61	5	3	2	31	41	1	24	5	335	433	429	861	93	413	19	14	380	149	+12	+3	—	—	+6	2.2

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Top row of each card is career totals; bottom row is per-162-game rates. Pool: 727 completed hitter careers (2000-2024).

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	YRS	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Eric Byrneslast yr '09 career totals — 8 seasons, 3,440 PA	8	3,440	106	125	260	321	441	-21	+3	14.9	15.2
	/162	664	20	24	260	321	441	-4.1	+0.6	2.9	pk7: 16
#2Drew Stubbslast yr '16 career totals — 8 seasons, 3,143 PA	8	3,143	92	161	244	314	394	+3	+16	12.2	12.3
	/162	664	19	34	244	314	394	+0.6	+3.3	2.6	pk7: 12
#3Travis Leelast yr '06 career totals — 6 seasons, 3,147 PA	6	3,147	84	34	257	336	412	-36	-3	9.0	9.0
#3Travis Leelast yr '06 career totals — 6 seasons, 3,147 PA	/162	664	18	7	257	336	412	-7.6	-0.7	1.9	pk7: 9
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 8 projected seasons	8	4,515	104	126	244	320	381	-27	+4	10.5	8.9
	/162	664	15	19	244	320	381	-4.0	+0.6	1.5	pk7: 7
#4Manuel Margotlast yr '24 career totals — 8 seasons, 3,154 PA	8	3,154	56	94	254	307	380	-5	+27	8.4	8.8
	/162	664	12	20	254	307	380	-1.1	+5.6	1.8	pk7: 9
#5Will Venablelast yr '15 career totals — 8 seasons, 3,127 PA	8	3,127	81	135	251	317	406	-20	-4	8.9	8.7
	/162	664	17	29	251	317	406	-4.2	-0.8	1.9	pk7: 9
#6Desmond Jenningslast yr '16 career totals — 6 seasons, 2,327 PA	6	2,327	55	93	245	323	394	-9	+10	8.1	8.1
	/162	664	16	27	245	323	394	-2.5	+2.7	2.3	pk7: 8

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Hayden Alvarez (OGILVIE)	19	34→51	35→42	55→57	58	240/317/369	130	327	12	57	28%	9%	88	+1.2	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
●Desmond Jennings 2007 · A	20	46→56	40→50	56→60	44	220/278/308	88	281	7	24	24%	6%	63	-0.9	254/316/372	118	301	9	29	18%	7%	95	+1.4	245/325/405	160	290	16	28	20%	9%	105	+2.2
●Royce Lewis 2018 · A	19	45→49	41→60	55→50	47	217/288/313	96	267	8	16	21%	7%	69	-0.4	215/262/314	99	286	8	16	27%	5%	57	-1.2	261/322/478	218	301	31	14	24%	8%	123	+1.6
✕Eury Pérez 2009 · A	19	47→57	37→40	54→65	47	223/297/296	73	290	5	20	23%	8%	68	-0.5	259/303/332	73	320	4	28	19%	5%	78	+0.2	296/331/390	95	359	3	37	18%	4%	102	+0.6
✕Manuel Margot 2014 · A	19	45→53	40→50	56→60	51	215/281/308	93	243	6	19	14%	7%	64	-0.8	235/276/348	113	272	9	27	17%	5%	72	-0.2	250/306/400	150	292	14	20	19%	7%	95	+1.1
✕Forrest Wall 2015 · A	19	48→58	41→45	56→70	47	227/290/330	103	300	7	17	26%	8%	73	-0.1	221/273/317	96	291	7	16	25%	6%	62	-0.9	266/338/377	110	363	9	50	27%	9%	101	+1.1
✕Masyn Winn 2022 · A	20	42→52	40→50	57→55	42	201/257/293	92	281	6	22	30%	7%	50	-1.8	232/286/367	135	290	12	21	23%	7%	82	+0.5	254/312/374	120	299	11	11	18%	7%	92	+1.0
●Edward Olivares 2016 · A	20	43→53	40→55	55	43	203/292/296	93	267	6	17	25%	6%	67	-0.5	214/268/343	129	275	13	13	26%	4%	68	-0.5	264/321/443	179	299	21	16	19%	6%	113	+1.6
●Victor Robles 2016 · A	19	50→54	42→50	55→60	45	240/311/353	113	291	8	21	20%	6%	89	+0.9	241/308/357	116	304	7	23	22%	5%	89	+0.9	241/311/384	143	300	12	27	22%	6%	93	+1.0
●Jahmai Jones 2017 · A	19	47→53	38→55	52→50	43	222/275/305	83	284	6	17	23%	5%	60	-1.0	219/278/324	105	289	9	15	26%	7%	66	-0.6	263/358/462	199	338	20	18	26%	11%	131	+2.1
✕Adrian Pinto 2023 · A	20	49	41→45	60→65	51	234/321/343	109	284	7	29	19%	8%	91	+1.1	235/310/360	125	296	12	18	23%	8%	91	+1.1	230/307/354	124	286	8	13	21%	9%	82	+0.1
✕Leo Rivas 2017 · A	19	45→54	36→40	54→65	48	210/293/282	73	289	3	21	26%	8%	63	-0.8	199/289/276	77	291	4	13	30%	10%	60	-1.0	239/352/335	95	318	9	44	24%	14%	101	+1.2
●Esteury Ruiz 2018 · A	19	47→57	43→50	57→70	38	227/269/358	131	311	8	19	29%	5%	71	-0.3	199/249/302	103	312	8	27	37%	5%	49	-1.8	268/342/410	142	331	14	74	22%	7%	114	+1.8
●Derek Hill 2015 · A	19	41→51	40→50	55→60	47	200/269/291	91	259	7	13	25%	8%	55	-1.4	199/251/270	71	293	3	25	31%	6%	40	-2.4	248/301/422	175	338	22	29	32%	6%	100	+0.7
✕Tyler Pastornicky 2009 · A	19	44→54	37→45	58→60	48	207/267/281	74	251	4	24	19%	7%	51	-1.7	236/286/318	82	279	5	28	17%	6%	68	-0.5	267/306/366	100	305	8	16	15%	5%	85	+0.5
●Leandro Castro 2008 · A	19	43→53	42→55	53→50	44	212/271/311	99	261	10	18	23%	6%	60	-1.0	213/252/312	99	267	9	14	23%	4%	52	-1.6	250/292/410	161	269	20	11	16%	5%	92	+0.9
✕Maximo Rivera 2013 · A	20	46	41→45	52→60	43	223/275/312	89	278	9	23	23%	6%	62	-0.9	216/267/290	74	292	5	14	26%	6%	53	-1.5	196/245/249	53	277	2	10	28%	5%	30	-0.7
✕Jorge Mateo 2014 · A	19	43→46	42→50	60→65	46	209/275/314	105	270	9	30	25%	8%	63	-0.8	209/260/303	94	293	6	36	29%	6%	53	-1.5	222/263/355	133	288	13	49	27%	5%	66	-0.2
●Elvis Andrus 2008 · A	19	48→58	38→50	51→60	43	225/278/302	77	299	5	21	25%	6%	60	-1.0	252/308/326	74	313	4	32	20%	7%	79	+0.3	277/330/410	133	307	11	23	13%	7%	107	+2.4
●Angel Genao 2022 · A	18	45→55	37→50	58→50	55	210/300/285	75	268	4	16	22%	11%	66	-0.6	232/290/328	96	308	7	11	25%	7%	72	-0.2	264/318/398	134	323	11	13	21%	7%	100	+1.2
✕Jared Serna 2022 · A	20	42→49	39→45	56→50	54	198/298/287	89	252	5	22	22%	10%	67	-0.5	215/282/333	118	275	11	17	25%	7%	72	-0.2	214/272/339	125	267	13	15	24%	6%	65	-0.5