Hayden Alvarez
CF Rancho Cucamonga Quakes| Year | Age | Lvl / Team | PA | AVG/OBP/SLG | HR | SB | wRC+ | WAR | MLE AVG/OBP/SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 17 | ROKLAA | 217 | .250/.368/.358 | 1 | 32 | 34 | — | .161/.254/.215 |
| 2025 | 18 | A/ROK2 orgs | 297 | .340/.439/.430 | 2 | 33 | 92 | — | .276/.346/.345 |
| 2026 | 19 | A+/ALAA | 551 | .289/.393/.456 | 12 | 53 | 94 | — | .242/.324/.373 |
| 2027PROJMLE | 20 | MLBLAA | 625 | .231/.312/.345 | 10 | 26 | 88 | 0.2 | |
| 2028PROJ34% MLB | 21 | MLBLAA | 178 | .235/.317/.361 | 3 | 7 | 94 | 0.3 | |
| 2029PROJ48% MLB | 22 | MLBLAA | 267 | .239/.321/.373 | 6 | 10 | 98 | 0.7 |
Contract
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built
All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | MLB% | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | SO | HBP | SB | CS | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | ISO | BABIP | K% | BB% | wOBA | wRC+ | BAT | RUN | FLD | POS | REP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2024 | 17 | ROK | DSL Angels | — | 217 | 176 | 44 | 10 | 3 | 1 | 31 | 35 | 2 | 32 | 6 | 250 | 368 | 358 | 726 | 108 | 301 | 16 | 14 | 323 | 34 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 18 | A | Inland Empire 66ers | — | 76 | 62 | 22 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 10 | 8 | 2 | 9 | 4 | 355 | 459 | 435 | 895 | 81 | 407 | 11 | 13 | 398 | 123 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 18 | ROK | ACL Angels | — | 221 | 182 | 61 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 31 | 41 | 1 | 24 | 5 | 335 | 433 | 429 | 861 | 93 | 413 | 19 | 14 | 380 | 81 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 19 | A+ | Tri-City Dust Devils | — | 105 | 89 | 23 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 15 | 19 | 1 | 7 | 1 | 258 | 371 | 360 | 731 | 101 | 319 | 18 | 14 | 338 | 74 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 19 | A | Rancho Cucamonga Quakes | — | 446 | 378 | 112 | 26 | 5 | 11 | 60 | 90 | 4 | 46 | 10 | 296 | 398 | 479 | 877 | 183 | 361 | 20 | 13 | 387 | 99 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2024 | 17 | ROK MLE | DSL Angels | — | 217 | 186 | 30 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 21 | 41 | 2 | 32 | 6 | 161 | 254 | 215 | 469 | 54 | 194 | 19 | 10 | 219 | 34 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 18 | A MLE | Inland Empire 66ers | — | 76 | 65 | 21 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 11 | 2 | 9 | 4 | 323 | 405 | 385 | 790 | 62 | 379 | 14 | 9 | 350 | 123 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 18 | ROK MLE | ACL Angels | — | 221 | 196 | 51 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 18 | 61 | 1 | 24 | 5 | 260 | 326 | 332 | 657 | 71 | 341 | 28 | 8 | 288 | 81 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 19 | A+ MLE | Tri-City Dust Devils | — | 105 | 93 | 21 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 11 | 26 | 1 | 7 | 1 | 226 | 314 | 312 | 626 | 86 | 295 | 25 | 10 | 277 | 74 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 19 | A MLE | Rancho Cucamonga Quakes | — | 446 | 395 | 97 | 21 | 4 | 9 | 43 | 122 | 4 | 46 | 10 | 246 | 326 | 387 | 713 | 142 | 329 | 27 | 10 | 314 | 99 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 17 | ROK MLE | DSL Angels | — | 217 | 186 | 30 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 21 | 41 | 2 | 32 | 6 | 161 | 254 | 215 | 469 | 54 | 203 | 19 | 10 | 219 | 34 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 17 | ROK RAW | DSL Angels | — | 217 | 176 | 44 | 10 | 3 | 1 | 31 | 35 | 2 | 32 | 6 | 250 | 368 | 358 | 726 | 108 | 301 | 16 | 14 | 323 | 34 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 18 | ROK MLE | 2 teams | — | 297 | 261 | 72 | 8 | 2 | 2 | 25 | 72 | 3 | 33 | 9 | 276 | 346 | 345 | 691 | 69 | 366 | 24 | 8 | 304 | 92 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 18 | ROK RAW | 2 teams | — | 297 | 244 | 83 | 10 | 3 | 2 | 41 | 49 | 3 | 33 | 9 | 340 | 439 | 430 | 870 | 90 | 411 | 16 | 14 | 384 | 92 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 19 | A MLE | 2 teams | — | 551 | 488 | 118 | 26 | 4 | 10 | 54 | 148 | 5 | 53 | 11 | 242 | 324 | 373 | 697 | 131 | 324 | 27 | 10 | 307 | 94 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 19 | A RAW | 2 teams | — | 551 | 467 | 135 | 32 | 5 | 12 | 75 | 109 | 5 | 53 | 11 | 289 | 393 | 456 | 849 | 167 | 352 | 20 | 14 | 377 | 94 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 17 | ROK MLE | DSL Angels | — | 217 | 192 | 30 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 21 | 41 | 2 | 32 | 6 | 156 | 254 | 208 | 462 | 52 | 194 | 19 | 10 | 219 | 34 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 18 | ROK MLE | 2 teams | — | 297 | 267 | 72 | 8 | 2 | 2 | 25 | 72 | 3 | 33 | 9 | 270 | 346 | 337 | 683 | 67 | 351 | 24 | 8 | 304 | 92 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 19 | A MLE | 2 teams | — | 551 | 487 | 118 | 26 | 4 | 10 | 54 | 148 | 5 | 53 | 11 | 242 | 324 | 374 | 697 | 131 | 323 | 27 | 10 | 307 | 94 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2024 | 17 | ROK MLE | DSL Angels | — | 217 | 192 | 30 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 21 | 41 | 2 | 32 | 6 | 156 | 254 | 208 | 462 | 52 | 194 | 19 | 10 | 219 | 34 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 18 | ROK MLE | 2 teams | — | 297 | 267 | 72 | 8 | 2 | 2 | 25 | 72 | 3 | 33 | 9 | 270 | 346 | 337 | 683 | 67 | 351 | 24 | 8 | 304 | 92 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 19 | A MLE | 2 teams | — | 551 | 487 | 118 | 26 | 4 | 10 | 54 | 148 | 5 | 53 | 11 | 242 | 324 | 374 | 697 | 131 | 323 | 27 | 10 | 307 | 94 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ 2027 season | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 20 | MLB MLE | LAA | 0% | 625 | 555 | 128 | 26 | 4 | 10 | 60 | 142 | 5 | 26 | 6 | 231 | 312 | 345 | 657 | 114 | 291 | 23 | 10 | 298 | 88 | -9 | +3 | -3 | +2 | +14 | 0.2 |
| ▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2028 | 21 | MLB MLE | LAA | 34% | 517 | 457 | 108 | 22 | 3 | 10 | 50 | 114 | 5 | 20 | 5 | 237 | 318 | 363 | 682 | 127 | 292 | 22 | 10 | 307 | 94 | -4 | +2 | -2 | +2 | +11 | 0.9 |
| 2029 | 22 | MLB MLE | LAA | 48% | 552 | 488 | 119 | 24 | 4 | 12 | 54 | 120 | 5 | 20 | 5 | 240 | 323 | 375 | 698 | 135 | 292 | 22 | 10 | 313 | 98 | -1 | +2 | -2 | +2 | +12 | 1.3 |
| 2030 | 23 | MLB MLE | LAA | 54% | 575 | 508 | 124 | 25 | 4 | 13 | 57 | 123 | 5 | 19 | 4 | 243 | 325 | 383 | 708 | 140 | 293 | 21 | 10 | 318 | 101 | +1 | +2 | -1 | +2 | +12 | 1.7 |
| 2031 | 24 | MLB MLE | LAA | 55% | 578 | 511 | 126 | 25 | 4 | 14 | 57 | 123 | 5 | 18 | 4 | 245 | 327 | 389 | 716 | 144 | 294 | 21 | 10 | 320 | 103 | +2 | +2 | -0 | +2 | +13 | 1.9 |
| 2032 | 25 | MLB MLE | LAA | 56% | 590 | 522 | 128 | 25 | 4 | 15 | 58 | 125 | 5 | 17 | 4 | 245 | 327 | 392 | 719 | 146 | 294 | 21 | 10 | 322 | 104 | +3 | +2 | +0 | +2 | +13 | 2.0 |
| 2033 | 26 | MLB MLE | LAA | 56% | 599 | 530 | 131 | 26 | 4 | 15 | 59 | 127 | 5 | 16 | 4 | 245 | 327 | 391 | 718 | 146 | 293 | 21 | 10 | 321 | 104 | +3 | +2 | +0 | +2 | +13 | 2.0 |
| 2034 | 27 | MLB MLE | LAA | 55% | 596 | 527 | 128 | 25 | 4 | 14 | 59 | 128 | 5 | 15 | 4 | 244 | 326 | 388 | 715 | 145 | 293 | 21 | 10 | 320 | 103 | +2 | +1 | +0 | +2 | +13 | 1.9 |
| 2035 | 28 | MLB MLE | LAA | 55% | 585 | 517 | 125 | 25 | 3 | 14 | 58 | 127 | 5 | 13 | 3 | 242 | 324 | 384 | 708 | 142 | 292 | 22 | 10 | 317 | 101 | +1 | +1 | -0 | +2 | +13 | 1.7 |
| 2036 | 29 | MLB MLE | LAA | 53% | 568 | 502 | 120 | 24 | 3 | 13 | 56 | 124 | 5 | 11 | 3 | 239 | 321 | 377 | 698 | 138 | 290 | 22 | 10 | 313 | 98 | -1 | +1 | -1 | +2 | +12 | 1.3 |
| 2037 | 30 | MLB MLE | LAA | 53% | 552 | 489 | 116 | 23 | 3 | 12 | 54 | 123 | 4 | 9 | 3 | 236 | 318 | 369 | 687 | 133 | 288 | 22 | 10 | 309 | 95 | -3 | +1 | -2 | +2 | +12 | 1.0 |
| 2038 | 31 | MLB MLE | LAA | 52% | 534 | 473 | 111 | 22 | 3 | 11 | 52 | 121 | 4 | 7 | 3 | 232 | 313 | 359 | 672 | 127 | 285 | 23 | 10 | 303 | 91 | -6 | +0 | -2 | +2 | +12 | 0.6 |
| 2028 | 21 | MLB CTX | LAA | 34% | 178 | 157 | 36 | 7 | 1 | 3 | 17 | 39 | 2 | 7 | 2 | 235 | 317 | 361 | 678 | 126 | 289 | 22 | 10 | 306 | 94 | -1 | +1 | -1 | +1 | +4 | 0.3 |
| 2029 | 22 | MLB CTX | LAA | 48% | 267 | 237 | 57 | 11 | 2 | 6 | 26 | 58 | 2 | 10 | 2 | 239 | 321 | 373 | 694 | 134 | 290 | 22 | 10 | 312 | 98 | -1 | +1 | -1 | +1 | +6 | 0.7 |
| 2030 | 23 | MLB CTX | LAA | 54% | 312 | 275 | 67 | 13 | 2 | 7 | 31 | 67 | 3 | 11 | 2 | 241 | 324 | 381 | 705 | 140 | 290 | 21 | 10 | 316 | 101 | +0 | +1 | -1 | +1 | +7 | 0.9 |
| 2031 | 24 | MLB CTX | LAA | 55% | 320 | 282 | 69 | 13 | 2 | 8 | 32 | 68 | 3 | 10 | 2 | 243 | 325 | 387 | 712 | 144 | 291 | 21 | 10 | 319 | 103 | +1 | +1 | -0 | +1 | +7 | 1.0 |
| 2032 | 25 | MLB CTX | LAA | 56% | 330 | 292 | 71 | 14 | 2 | 8 | 32 | 70 | 3 | 10 | 2 | 244 | 326 | 390 | 716 | 146 | 291 | 21 | 10 | 320 | 104 | +1 | +1 | +0 | +1 | +7 | 1.1 |
| 2033 | 26 | MLB CTX | LAA | 56% | 337 | 298 | 72 | 14 | 2 | 8 | 33 | 72 | 3 | 9 | 2 | 244 | 326 | 389 | 715 | 146 | 291 | 21 | 10 | 320 | 104 | +1 | +1 | +0 | +1 | +7 | 1.1 |
| 2034 | 27 | MLB CTX | LAA | 55% | 330 | 291 | 71 | 14 | 2 | 8 | 33 | 71 | 3 | 8 | 2 | 242 | 325 | 387 | 711 | 144 | 290 | 22 | 10 | 319 | 103 | +1 | +1 | +0 | +1 | +7 | 1.1 |
| 2035 | 28 | MLB CTX | LAA | 55% | 321 | 283 | 69 | 13 | 2 | 8 | 32 | 69 | 3 | 7 | 2 | 241 | 323 | 382 | 705 | 141 | 289 | 21 | 10 | 316 | 101 | +0 | +1 | -0 | +1 | +7 | 0.9 |
| 2036 | 29 | MLB CTX | LAA | 53% | 303 | 267 | 64 | 12 | 2 | 7 | 30 | 66 | 3 | 6 | 2 | 238 | 320 | 375 | 695 | 137 | 288 | 22 | 10 | 312 | 98 | -1 | +0 | -1 | +1 | +7 | 0.7 |
| 2037 | 30 | MLB CTX | LAA | 53% | 290 | 258 | 60 | 11 | 2 | 6 | 28 | 64 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 235 | 316 | 367 | 683 | 132 | 286 | 22 | 10 | 307 | 95 | -2 | +1 | -1 | +1 | +6 | 0.5 |
| 2038 | 31 | MLB CTX | LAA | 52% | 278 | 247 | 57 | 11 | 1 | 6 | 27 | 63 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 231 | 311 | 357 | 668 | 126 | 283 | 23 | 10 | 301 | 91 | -3 | +0 | -1 | +1 | +6 | 0.3 |
| ▸ Career Totals | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | A+C | — | 3266 | 2887 | 693 | 133 | 20 | 75 | 321 | 707 | 29 | 86 | 20 | 240 | 322 | 378 | 700 | 138 | 291 | 22 | 10 | 314 | 96 | -1 | +9 | -5 | +12 | +71 | 8.7 | |
| / 162G | — | A+C | — | 650 | 575 | 138 | 26 | 4 | 15 | 64 | 141 | 6 | 17 | 4 | 240 | 323 | 377 | 700 | 137 | 291 | 22 | 10 | 314 | 96 | -0 | +2 | -1 | +2 | +14 | 1.7 | |
| Career | — | MLE | — | 7521 | 6645 | 1599 | 315 | 48 | 158 | 734 | 1664 | 65 | 292 | 70 | 241 | 322 | 374 | 696 | 133 | 296 | 22 | 10 | 311 | 96 | -8 | +17 | -11 | +23 | +140 | 16.5 | |
| / 162G | — | MLE | — | 650 | 574 | 138 | 27 | 4 | 14 | 63 | 144 | 6 | 25 | 6 | 240 | 322 | 375 | 696 | 134 | 295 | 22 | 10 | 311 | 96 | -1 | +2 | -1 | +2 | +14 | 1.7 | |
How the minor-league lines were translated
One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.
2026 ARancho Cucamonga Quakes · 446 PAwOBA .380 → .314 (−65)K% 20.2% → 27.4%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 20.18% | ÷1.000 | ×1.360 | — | — | 27.44% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 13.45% | ÷1.000 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.045 | 9.70% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.90% | — | ×0.780 | — | ×1.045 | 0.73% |
| Singles /BIP | 24.31% | ÷1.000 | ×0.920 | ×0.980 | ×1.045 | 22.91% |
| Doubles /BIP | 9.03% | ÷1.000 | ×0.830 | ×0.980 | ×1.045 | 7.68% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.74% | ÷1.000 | ×0.910 | ×0.980 | ×1.045 | 1.62% |
| Home runs /BIP | 3.82% | ÷1.000 | ×0.800 | — | ×1.045 | 3.19% |
Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 19 vs a level average of 22.0 → +4.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.0 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.980.
Result: wOBA .380 → .314; ISO .183 → .150; BABIP .361 → .329. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2026 A+Tri-City Dust Devils · 105 PAwOBA .330 → .277 (−53)K% 18.1% → 24.4%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 18.10% | ÷1.000 | ×1.350 | — | — | 24.43% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 14.29% | ÷1.000 | ×0.710 | — | ×1.050 | 10.65% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.95% | — | ×0.810 | — | ×1.050 | 0.81% |
| Singles /BIP | 22.86% | ÷1.000 | ×0.910 | ×0.994 | ×1.050 | 21.71% |
| Doubles /BIP | 8.57% | ÷1.000 | ×0.830 | ×0.994 | ×1.050 | 7.43% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.000 | ×0.820 | ×0.994 | ×1.050 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 1.43% | ÷1.000 | ×0.830 | — | ×1.050 | 1.24% |
Factors used: level-wide A+ factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 19 vs a level average of 22.8 → +5.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.994.
Result: wOBA .330 → .277; ISO .101 → .084; BABIP .319 → .295. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2025 ROKACL Angels · 221 PAwOBA .378 → .288 (−90)K% 18.6% → 27.6%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 18.55% | ÷0.969 | ×1.440 | — | — | 27.58% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 14.03% | ÷1.082 | ×0.620 | — | ×1.022 | 8.22% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.45% | — | ×0.720 | — | ×1.022 | 0.33% |
| Singles /BIP | 36.17% | ÷1.015 | ×0.820 | ×1.021 | ×1.022 | 30.51% |
| Doubles /BIP | 3.55% | ÷0.992 | ×0.720 | ×1.021 | ×1.022 | 2.69% |
| Triples /BIP | 2.13% | ÷1.134 | ×0.720 | ×1.021 | ×1.022 | 1.41% |
| Home runs /BIP | 1.42% | ÷0.873 | ×0.780 | — | ×1.022 | 1.30% |
Factors used: level-wide ROK factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 75, 1B 103, 2B 98, 3B 127, K 94, BB 116 — applied at half strength. Age: age 18 vs a level average of 19.5 → +2.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.5 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.021.
Result: wOBA .378 → .288; ISO .093 → .073; BABIP .413 → .341. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2025 AInland Empire 66ers · 76 PAwOBA .389 → .350 (−39)K% 10.5% → 14.2%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 10.53% | ÷1.008 | ×1.360 | — | — | 14.20% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 13.16% | ÷1.011 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.050 | 9.43% |
| HBP% /PA | 2.63% | — | ×0.780 | — | ×1.050 | 2.16% |
| Singles /BIP | 31.48% | ÷1.066 | ×0.920 | ×1.050 | ×1.050 | 29.94% |
| Doubles /BIP | 9.26% | ÷1.065 | ×0.830 | ×1.050 | ×1.050 | 7.96% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.997 | ×0.910 | ×1.050 | ×1.050 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.036 | ×0.800 | — | ×1.050 | 0.00% |
Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 107, 1B 113, 2B 113, 3B 99, K 102, BB 102 — applied at half strength. Age: age 18 vs a level average of 22.0 → +5.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (4.0 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.050.
Result: wOBA .389 → .350; ISO .081 → .072; BABIP .407 → .379. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2024 DSLDSL Angels · 217 PAwOBA .320 → .219 (−101)K% 16.1% → 19.0%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 16.13% | ÷1.038 | ×1.220 | — | — | 18.96% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 14.29% | ÷1.064 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.022 | 9.61% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.92% | — | ×0.700 | — | ×1.022 | 0.66% |
| Singles /BIP | 21.28% | ÷1.052 | ×0.680 | ×1.013 | ×1.022 | 14.25% |
| Doubles /BIP | 7.09% | ÷1.081 | ×0.600 | ×1.013 | ×1.022 | 4.08% |
| Triples /BIP | 2.13% | ÷0.961 | ×0.600 | ×1.013 | ×1.022 | 1.38% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.71% | ÷1.068 | ×0.470 | — | ×1.022 | 0.32% |
Factors used: level-wide DSL factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 114, 1B 110, 2B 116, 3B 92, K 108, BB 113 — applied at half strength. Age: age 17 vs a level average of 18.5 → +2.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.5 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.013.
Result: wOBA .320 → .219; ISO .108 → .068; BABIP .301 → .194. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).