Hayden Alvarez — OGILVIE

Hayden AlvarezCF Rancho Cucamonga Quakes

Age 19 R/R 6'3" / 190 lbs A K +5%HR +4% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2034

2026 ROS PROJECTION551 act + 10 ros · stats below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+†88

AVG/OBP/SLG.111 / .200 / .111

PA10

HR0

K%20

BB%10

BABIP298

ISO100

MLB%0%

Value2026 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control+$36M ctrl surplus

Tools · ContractCON 51 / POW 42

Toolsscout grade

CONTACT51

scouting grade only

POWER42

scouting grade only

EYE58

scouting grade only

SPEED57

scouting grade only

DEFENSE51

scouting grade only

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2029

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2034

First FA Year 2035

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2029	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+1.0	$6M	+$6M
2030	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+1.2	$7M	+$7M
2031	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+1.3	$7M	+$7M
2032	Arb-1	$6M	+1.3	$7M	+$4M
2033	Arb-2	$10M	+1.3	$6M	+$1M
2034	Arb-3	$14M	+1.3	$6M	+$0.0M (cut)
Totals		$18M		$39M	+$24M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2024	17	ROK	DSL Angels	—	217	176	44	10	3	1	31	35	2	32	6	250	368	358	726	108	301	16	14	323	104	+1	+4	—	—	+5	1.0
2025	18	A	Inland Empire 66ers	—	76	62	22	5	0	0	10	8	2	9	4	355	459	435	895	81	407	11	13	398	156	+5	+0	—	—	+2	0.7
2025	18	ROK	ACL Angels	—	221	182	61	5	3	2	31	41	1	24	5	335	433	429	861	93	413	19	14	380	143	+11	+3	—	—	+5	1.9
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2024	17	ROK MLE	DSL Angels	—	217	189	35	7	2	1	18	49	2	32	6	185	263	259	522	74	229	23	8	232	43	-15	+4	—	—	+5	-0.6
2025	18	A MLE	Inland Empire 66ers	—	76	65	20	4	0	0	7	11	2	9	4	308	392	369	761	62	357	14	9	334	112	+1	+0	—	—	+2	0.3
2025	18	ROK MLE	ACL Angels	—	221	196	50	4	2	2	18	61	1	24	5	255	321	327	647	71	333	28	8	282	77	-6	+3	—	—	+5	0.2
2024	17	ROK MLE	DSL Angels	—	217	189	35	7	2	1	18	49	2	32	6	185	263	259	522	74	239	23	8	232	43	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	17	ROK RAW	DSL Angels	—	217	176	44	10	3	1	31	35	2	32	6	250	368	358	726	108	301	16	14	323	43	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	18	ROK MLE	2 teams	—	297	261	70	8	2	2	25	72	3	33	9	268	339	337	676	69	356	24	8	295	86	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	18	ROK RAW	2 teams	—	297	244	83	10	3	2	41	49	3	33	9	340	439	430	870	90	411	16	14	384	86	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	17	ROK MLE	DSL Angels	—	217	195	35	7	2	1	18	49	2	32	6	179	263	251	514	72	229	23	8	232	43	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	18	ROK MLE	2 teams	—	297	267	70	8	2	2	25	72	3	33	9	262	339	330	669	67	339	24	8	295	86	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2024	17	ROK MLE	DSL Angels	—	217	195	35	7	2	1	18	49	2	32	6	179	263	251	514	72	229	23	8	232	43	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	18	ROK MLE	2 teams	—	297	267	70	8	2	2	25	72	3	33	9	262	339	330	669	67	339	24	8	295	86	—	—	—	—	—	—
YTD	19	A MLE	LAA	—	551	490	114	25	4	11	52	147	5	53	11	233	313	367	680	135	307	27	9	295	86	-9	+6	+0	+2	+12	1.1
▸ 2026 season
YTD	19	A RAW	LAA	—	446	378	112	26	5	11	60	90	4	46	10	296	398	479	877	183	361	20	13	387	86	—	—	—	—	—	—
YTD	19	A+ RAW	LAA	—	105	89	23	6	0	1	15	19	1	7	1	258	371	360	731	101	319	18	14	338	86	—	—	—	—	—	—
ROS	19	A MLE	LAA	0%	10	9	1	0	0	0	1	2	0	1	0	111	200	111	311		299	20	10	298	88	-0	+0	-0	+0	+0	0.0
TOT	19	A MLE	LAA	—	561	499	115	25	4	11	53	149	5	54	11	230	311	363	673	132	304	27	9	295	86	-9	+6	-0	+2	+12	1.1
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
2027	20	MLB MLE	LAA	34%	581	517	122	24	4	11	54	140	5	25	5	236	314	362	676	126	299	24	9	304	92	-6	+3	-2	+2	+13	1.1
2028	21	MLB MLE	LAA	48%	609	540	130	26	4	13	58	141	6	24	5	241	321	376	697	135	299	23	10	313	98	-1	+3	-2	+2	+13	1.5
2029	22	MLB MLE	LAA	54%	627	556	136	27	4	15	60	142	6	22	5	245	325	388	713	144	299	23	10	320	102	+2	+2	-2	+2	+14	1.9
2030	23	MLB MLE	LAA	57%	638	565	139	27	4	16	62	142	6	21	4	246	327	393	720	147	300	22	10	324	105	+4	+3	-2	+2	+14	2.1
2031	24	MLB MLE	LAA	57%	637	564	140	27	4	17	62	140	6	19	4	248	329	401	730	152	301	22	10	327	108	+6	+2	-2	+2	+14	2.3
2032	25	MLB MLE	LAA	57%	629	556	139	27	4	17	62	138	6	18	4	250	332	405	736	155	301	22	10	329	109	+7	+2	-2	+2	+14	2.3
2033	26	MLB MLE	LAA	56%	624	551	138	27	4	17	62	137	6	17	4	250	333	407	739	156	301	22	10	330	110	+7	+2	-2	+2	+14	2.3
2034	27	MLB MLE	LAA	55%	621	548	137	26	4	17	62	136	6	16	4	250	333	405	738	155	300	22	10	330	110	+7	+2	-2	+2	+13	2.3
2035	28	MLB MLE	LAA	55%	615	542	135	26	4	17	62	136	6	15	3	249	333	406	739	157	300	22	10	329	109	+7	+2	-2	+2	+13	2.2
2036	29	MLB MLE	LAA	53%	603	531	131	25	4	16	61	134	6	14	3	247	331	399	730	153	299	22	10	327	108	+5	+2	-3	+2	+13	2.0
2037	30	MLB MLE	LAA	53%	592	521	127	24	3	16	60	133	6	13	3	244	329	393	722	150	298	22	10	324	106	+4	+1	-4	+2	+13	1.7
2038	31	MLB MLE	LAA	52%	577	507	123	23	3	15	59	132	6	11	2	243	329	389	717	146	296	23	10	320	103	+2	+1	-4	+2	+13	1.4
2039	32	MLB MLE	LAA	52%	559	492	117	22	3	14	57	130	5	10	2	238	323	380	703	142	292	23	10	315	99	-1	+1	-5	+2	+12	1.0
2040	33	MLB MLE	LAA	56%	529	466	108	20	3	12	53	126	5	9	2	232	317	365	682	133	288	24	10	308	94	-4	+1	-6	+2	+11	0.5
2041	34	MLB MLE	LAA	52%	481	426	97	17	3	11	48	117	4	7	1	228	312	359	671	131	282	24	10	299	88	-7	+1	-6	+2	+10	0.0
2027	20	MLB CTX	LAA	34%	200	177	42	8	1	4	19	48	2	9	2	237	318	362	680	124	298	24	10	297	92	-2	+1	-1	+1	+4	0.4
2028	21	MLB CTX	LAA	48%	295	262	63	12	2	7	28	69	3	11	2	240	321	382	702	141	299	23	9	306	98	-1	+1	-1	+1	+6	0.7
2029	22	MLB CTX	LAA	54%	340	301	73	14	2	8	33	77	3	12	3	243	323	382	706	140	299	23	10	312	102	+1	+1	-1	+1	+7	1.0
2030	23	MLB CTX	LAA	57%	361	319	78	15	2	9	35	80	4	12	3	245	327	389	716	144	299	22	10	317	105	+2	+1	-1	+1	+8	1.2
2031	24	MLB CTX	LAA	57%	360	318	79	15	2	10	35	79	4	11	2	248	331	403	733	154	300	22	10	320	108	+3	+1	-1	+1	+8	1.3
2032	25	MLB CTX	LAA	57%	355	313	78	15	2	10	35	78	4	10	2	249	332	406	738	157	300	22	10	322	109	+4	+1	-1	+1	+8	1.3
2033	26	MLB CTX	LAA	56%	353	311	78	15	2	10	35	77	4	10	2	251	334	408	743	158	300	22	10	323	110	+4	+1	-1	+1	+8	1.3
2034	27	MLB CTX	LAA	55%	344	303	76	14	2	10	34	76	4	9	2	251	334	409	744	158	300	22	10	323	110	+4	+1	-1	+1	+7	1.3
2035	28	MLB CTX	LAA	55%	338	298	74	14	2	9	34	75	3	8	2	248	331	399	731	151	299	22	10	322	109	+4	+1	-1	+1	+7	1.2
2036	29	MLB CTX	LAA	53%	322	283	70	13	2	9	33	72	3	7	2	247	332	403	735	155	298	22	10	320	108	+3	+1	-2	+1	+7	1.0
2037	30	MLB CTX	LAA	53%	312	274	67	13	2	8	32	70	3	7	1	245	330	394	724	150	297	22	10	317	106	+2	+1	-2	+1	+7	0.9
2038	31	MLB CTX	LAA	52%	301	264	65	12	2	8	31	69	3	6	1	246	332	398	730	152	295	23	10	313	103	+1	+1	-2	+1	+7	0.7
2039	32	MLB CTX	LAA	52%	290	256	61	11	2	7	29	67	3	5	1	238	323	379	702	141	292	23	10	308	99	-0	+1	-3	+1	+6	0.5
2040	33	MLB CTX	LAA	56%	296	261	61	11	2	7	30	70	3	5	1	234	320	372	691	138	287	24	10	301	94	-2	+1	-3	+1	+6	0.3
2041	34	MLB CTX	LAA	52%	248	219	50	9	1	6	25	61	2	4	1	228	313	361	674	132	281	25	10	292	88	-3	+0	-3	+1	+5	-0.0
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	4715	4159	1015	191	28	122	468	1068	48	126	27	244	327	391	719	147	298	23	10	314	101	+19	+14	-24	+17	+102	13.2
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	573	140	26	4	17	65	147	7	17	4	244	329	393	721	148	299	23	10	314	101	+3	+2	-3	+2	+14	1.8
Career	—	MLE		—	9446	8341	2025	383	59	227	926	2147	90	307	66	243	325	384	709	142	299	23	10	318	101	+32	+28	-45	+32	+194	24.6
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	574	139	26	4	16	64	148	6	21	5	242	325	385	710	143	297	23	10	318	101	+2	+2	-3	+2	+14	1.8

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	162s	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Alex Gordonlast yr '20 AS×3GG×7SS career totals — 14 seasons, 7,250 PA	10.9	7,250	190	113	257	338	410	-58	+22	27.4	26.4
/162	664	17	10	-5.3	+2.0	2.5	pk7: 25
#2Chris Younglast yr '18 career totals — 13 seasons, 5,316 PA	8.0	5,316	191	142	235	314	428	-0	+3	21.3	20.7
/162	664	24	18	-0.0	+0.4	2.7	pk7: 20
#3Eric Byrneslast yr '09 career totals — 8 seasons, 3,440 PA	5.2	3,440	106	125	260	321	441	-21	+3	14.9	15.2
/162	664	20	24	-4.1	+0.6	2.9	pk7: 16
#4Drew Stubbslast yr '16 career totals — 8 seasons, 3,143 PA	4.7	3,143	92	161	244	314	394	+3	+16	12.2	12.3
/162	664	19	34	+0.6	+3.3	2.6	pk7: 12
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 9 projected seasons	7.6	5,035	124	140	244	323	389	-27	+4	13.5	11.1
/162	664	16	18	-3.6	+0.6	1.8	pk7: 9
#5Will Venablelast yr '15 career totals — 8 seasons, 3,127 PA	4.7	3,127	81	135	251	317	406	-20	-4	8.9	8.7
/162	664	17	29	-4.2	-0.8	1.9	pk7: 9
#6Desmond Jenningslast yr '16 career totals — 6 seasons, 2,327 PA	3.5	2,327	55	93	245	323	394	-9	+10	8.1	8.1
/162	664	16	27	-2.5	+2.7	2.3	pk7: 8

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Hayden Alvarez (OGILVIE)	19	34→51	35→42	55→57	58	230/307/348	118	299	5	24	25%	9%	88	+0.2	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Adrian Pinto 2023 · A	20	49	41→45	59→65	52	232/323/340	107	283	6	29	19%	9%	92	+0.7	232/310/353	121	294	11	18	23%	8%	90	+0.6	226/310/337	111	288	7	11	22%	9%	81	-0.0
✕Victor Robles 2016 · A	19	50→52	42→50	55→60	45	240/311/353	113	291	8	21	20%	6%	90	+0.6	242/308/360	118	303	8	23	22%	5%	91	+0.6	246/315/392	146	305	12	27	22%	6%	97	+0.9
✕Jorge Mateo 2014 · A	19	43→48	42→50	60→65	46	209/275/314	105	270	9	30	25%	8%	68	-1.0	211/263/305	94	295	6	36	28%	6%	60	-1.6	213/255/343	130	274	13	52	27%	5%	65	-0.4
✕Masyn Winn 2022 · A	20	42→52	39→50	57→55	42	201/259/292	90	285	6	22	30%	7%	56	-1.9	230/286/359	129	289	11	21	23%	7%	82	-0.0	252/312/373	121	300	11	11	19%	7%	93	+0.8
●Edward Olivares 2016 · A	20	43→53	40→55	55	43	203/292/296	93	267	6	17	25%	6%	71	-0.8	214/269/338	124	276	11	13	26%	5%	71	-0.8	262/319/433	171	298	19	16	19%	6%	108	+1.2
●Desmond Jennings 2007 · A	20	46→56	40→50	56→60	44	220/278/308	88	281	7	24	24%	6%	67	-1.1	254/316/370	116	301	9	29	18%	7%	95	+0.9	243/323/397	154	290	15	28	21%	9%	102	+1.5
●Evan Carter 2022 · A	19	46→53	42→50	52→55	55	216/324/330	114	293	8	18	27%	12%	91	+0.6	237/321/380	143	308	13	20	25%	10%	100	+1.3	237/324/389	152	306	14	21	25%	10%	100	+0.9
●Esteury Ruiz 2018 · A	19	47→57	43→50	57→70	38	227/269/358	131	311	8	19	29%	5%	74	-0.5	199/248/301	102	310	8	27	37%	5%	54	-2.0	264/338/395	131	327	12	74	22%	6%	107	+1.2
✕Manuel Margot 2014 · A	19	45→52	40→50	56→60	51	215/281/308	93	243	6	19	14%	7%	68	-1.0	238/280/352	114	273	8	27	16%	5%	77	-0.3	245/302/387	142	288	13	20	19%	7%	91	+0.5
✕Jared Serna 2022 · A	20	42→48	39→45	56→50	53	200/298/293	93	253	6	22	22%	10%	72	-0.7	217/285/340	123	274	12	17	24%	7%	78	-0.3	217/277/347	130	268	14	15	24%	6%	74	-0.4
✕Luke Adams 2023 · A	19	50→36	41→50	55	45	231/306/331	100	330	7	18	30%	8%	83	+0.1	193/323/316	123	270	12	20	30%	11%	89	+0.5	189/341/340	151	235	17	19	25%	12%	100	+0.7
✕Eury Pérez 2009 · A	19	47→57	37→40	54→65	47	223/297/296	73	290	5	20	23%	8%	72	-0.7	258/302/330	72	319	4	28	19%	5%	80	-0.2	292/329/379	87	355	3	37	18%	4%	98	+0.4
●Geraldo Perdomo 2019 · A	19	46→56	36→45	53→55	55	213/301/277	64	275	3	17	22%	11%	69	-0.9	218/303/296	78	282	4	15	22%	9%	74	-0.5	257/357/385	127	281	12	19	12%	12%	112	+2.1
✕Derek Hill 2015 · A	19	41→51	40→55	55→60	47	200/269/291	91	259	7	13	25%	8%	60	-1.6	202/254/274	72	296	2	25	30%	6%	49	-2.4	242/294/410	167	331	20	27	32%	6%	94	+0.4
●Elvis Andrus 2008 · A	19	48→58	38→50	51→60	43	225/278/302	77	299	5	21	25%	6%	65	-1.2	253/309/326	73	313	4	32	19%	7%	82	-0.0	277/330/414	137	310	11	19	14%	7%	105	+1.6
✕Luis Rengifo 2017 · A	20	45→55	37→55	56→55	45	212/270/294	82	276	4	21	24%	6%	61	-1.5	229/288/342	113	288	8	20	22%	7%	78	-0.3	271/321/427	157	304	18	16	17%	6%	109	+1.5
✕Maximo Rivera 2013 · A	20	46	41→45	52→60	43	223/275/312	89	278	9	23	23%	6%	66	-1.1	216/267/290	74	293	5	14	26%	6%	58	-1.7	195/246/249	53	277	2	10	29%	5%	38	-0.7
✕Leo Rivas 2017 · A	19	45→54	36→40	54→65	48	210/293/282	73	289	3	21	26%	8%	68	-1.0	200/289/277	77	290	4	13	29%	10%	65	-1.2	241/356/333	92	321	9	44	24%	14%	102	+1.0
✕Forrest Wall 2015 · A	19	48→55	41→45	56→70	47	227/290/330	103	300	7	17	26%	8%	76	-0.4	222/274/319	97	291	7	16	25%	6%	68	-1.0	253/326/354	101	349	8	50	27%	9%	92	+0.5
●Trent Grisham 2016 · A	19	49	38→60	56→55	48	230/300/314	84	311	4	19	26%	8%	76	-0.4	198/281/285	87	301	6	16	32%	10%	63	-1.3	240/327/432	192	284	22	14	23%	10%	111	+1.7

Career Stats + Projections

Career Comps

Career Path Comps