Ricky Cabrera

SS Dayton Dragons
Age 22 R/R 6'0" / 201 lbs A+ HR +16%BB +6% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2036
Overview
A+PROSPECTMiLBFA 2037
ETA2030MLB%0%
YearAgeLvl / TeamPAAVG/OBP/SLGHRSBwRC+WARMLE AVG/OBP/SLG
202318A/ROKCIN202.346/.475/.531524109—.274/.381/.405
202419ACIN456.252/.333/.399111967—.215/.285/.324
202520A+CIN89.187/.282/.2400032—.182/.259/.234
2027PROJMLE22MLBCIN387.188/.256/.2917755-0.1
2028PROJ25% MLB23MLBCIN27.196/.264/.3121061-0.0
2029PROJ36% MLB24MLBCIN67.200/.269/.3242165-0.1
Next 3 projected WAR -0.2Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.
ContractESTIMATED
Control thru2036Service0.0First FA2037
2027MiLB2028MiLB2029MiLB2030MiLB2031Pre-Arb$0.9M2032Pre-Arb$0.9M2033Pre-Arb$0.9M2034Ext$3M+2
Skills · percentileMiLB Statcast 2025 A+
Speed49
BB%33
K%28
Chase%18
wOBA15
ISO14
CompsLuis Carpio (age 22) · Danny Mendick (age 22) · Blake Hunt (age 22)
2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 91 proj PA
wRC+†55
AVG/OBP/SLG.187 / .254 / .288
PA91
HR2
K%27
BB%7
ISO103
MLB%0%
Value2027 · WAR
BAT: -4.9 runs (wOBA-derived runs vs avg)-5BATRUN: +0.1 runs (SB/CS + UBR baserunning)+0RUNFLD: -0.2 runs (Defensive runs vs avg)-0FLDPOS: +1.0 runs (Positional adjustment)+1POSREP: +2.0 runs (Replacement-level credit)+2REPTotal WAR: -0.10-0.1WAR
0.00.51.00.00.00.027282930313233343536
━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit-$3M ctrl surplus
Contract
Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)
Status   MiLB
MLB Debut   2031
Service   0 yrs (est)
Team Control Through   2036
First FA Year   2037
YearStatusSalary Proj WAR Value Surplus
2027MiLBstill in minors · estimated debut 2031
2028MiLBstill in minors · estimated debut 2031
2029MiLBstill in minors · estimated debut 2031
2030MiLBstill in minors · estimated debut 2031
2031Pre-Arb$0.9M———
2032Pre-Arb$0.9M———
2033Pre-Arb$0.9M———
2034Extbeyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2035Extbeyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2036Extbeyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals $0.0M $-1M +$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.
basis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

YearAge LvlTeam MLB% PAAB H2B3BHR BBSOHBP SBCS AVGOBPSLGOPS ISOBABIP K%BB% wOBAwRC+ BATRUNFLDPOSREP WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
202217 ROKDSL Reds — 180150 38651 134014 54 253367380747 127333 227 337 38 — — — — — —
202318 ADaytona Tortugas — 2719 6000 553 30 316519316834 429 1919 412 118 — — — — — —
202318 ROKACL Reds — 175143 50745 213511 212 3504695591.028 210437 2012 453 108 — — — — — —
202419 ADaytona Tortugas — 456404 10222211 3110118 198 252333399732 146308 227 329 67 — — — — — —
202520 A+Dayton Dragons — 8975 14210 8252 02 187282240522 53269 289 238 32 — — — — — —
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
202217 ROK MLEDSL Reds — 180154 27431 94914 54 175282260542 84222 275 224 38 — — — — — —
202318 A MLEDaytona Tortugas — 2720 6000 473 30 300481300781 399 2615 342 118 — — — — — —
202318 ROK MLEACL Reds — 175152 41534 124911 212 270366421787 151356 287 328 108 — — — — — —
202419 A MLEDaytona Tortugas — 456413 891728 2213918 198 215285324609 109296 305 267 67 — — — — — —
202520 A+ MLEDayton Dragons — 8977 14210 6322 02 182259234493 52268 367 216 32 — — — — — —
202217 ROK MLEDSL Reds — 180154 27431 94914 54 175282260542 84245 275 224 38 — — — — — —
202217 ROK RAWDSL Reds — 180150 38651 134014 54 253367380747 127333 227 337 38 — — — — — —
202318 ROK MLE2 teams — 202172 46534 165614 242 267376401777 134375 288 330 109 — — — — — —
202318 ROK RAW2 teams — 202162 56745 264014 242 3464755311.006 185436 2013 448 109 — — — — — —
202419 A MLEDaytona Tortugas — 456413 891728 2213918 198 215285324609 109301 305 267 67 — — — — — —
202419 A RAWDaytona Tortugas — 456404 10222211 3110118 198 252333399732 146308 227 329 67 — — — — — —
202520 A+ MLEDayton Dragons — 8977 14210 6322 02 182259234493 52298 367 216 32 — — — — — —
202520 A+ RAWDayton Dragons — 8975 14210 8252 02 187282240522 53269 289 238 32 — — — — — —
202217 ROK MLEDSL Reds — 180155 27431 94914 54 174282258541 84222 275 224 38 — — — — — —
202318 ROK MLE2 teams — 202170 46534 165614 242 271376406782 135362 288 330 109 — — — — — —
202419 A MLEDaytona Tortugas — 456413 891728 2213918 198 215285324609 109296 305 267 67 — — — — — —
202520 A+ MLEDayton Dragons — 8981 14210 6322 02 173259222481 49268 367 216 32 — — — — — —
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons)
202419 A MLEDaytona Tortugas — 456413 891728 2213918 198 215285324609 109296 305 267 67 — — — — — —
202520 A+ MLEDayton Dragons — 8981 14210 6322 02 173259222481 49268 367 216 32 — — — — — —
▸ 2027 season
▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability)
202722 MLB MLECIN 0% 387352 671327 261036 72 188256291547 103243 277 249 55 -21 +1 -1 +4 +8 -0.1
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
202823 MLB MLECIN 25% 10797 20412 7282 21 194262306568 112247 267 258 61 -5 +0 -0 +1 +2 -0.2
202924 MLB MLECIN 36% 185167 33614 13483 31 198268317584 118250 267 264 65 -8 +0 -0 +2 +4 -0.2
203025 MLB MLECIN 43% 260236 47916 18664 52 201271324595 122252 257 269 68 -10 +0 -1 +3 +6 -0.2
203126 MLB MLECIN 47% 320289 591127 23815 62 203274328601 124254 257 271 70 -12 +0 -1 +3 +7 -0.1
203227 MLB MLECIN 48% 353319 651228 26905 62 205275329604 125255 257 273 71 -12 +0 -1 +4 +8 -0.1
203328 MLB MLECIN 48% 368333 681328 27945 52 203273325598 122255 267 270 69 -14 +0 -1 +4 +8 -0.3
202823 MLB CTXCIN 25% 2725 5101 270 00 196264312577 117247 267 261 61 -1 +0 -0 +0 +1 -0.0
202924 MLB CTXCIN 36% 6761 12202 5171 10 200269324593 123251 257 268 65 -3 +0 -0 +1 +1 -0.1
203025 MLB CTXCIN 43% 111100 21413 8282 21 203273331604 128253 257 272 68 -4 +0 -0 +1 +2 -0.1
203126 MLB CTXCIN 47% 149135 28514 11382 31 206275335611 130255 267 275 70 -5 +0 -0 +2 +3 -0.1
203227 MLB CTXCIN 48% 168151 32614 12433 31 207277337614 130256 267 276 71 -6 +0 -0 +2 +4 -0.1
203328 MLB CTXCIN 48% 177159 33614 13453 21 205275332607 127255 257 274 69 -7 +0 -1 +2 +4 -0.2
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career— A+C — 699631 13124418 5117811 114 208278344622 136257 257 273 67 -26 +1 -2 +7 +15 -0.5
/ 162G— A+C — 650587 12222417 4716610 104 208278346624 138257 267 273 67 -24 +1 -2 +7 +14 -0.4
Career— MLE — 26112340 484861850 17370774 7727 207283323606 116271 277 268 67 -65 +1 -4 +18 +36 -1.4
/ 162G— MLE — 650583 11921412 4317618 197 204280316595 111268 277 268 67 -25 +1 -2 +7 +14 -0.5

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2025 A+Dayton Dragons · 89 PAwOBA .238 → .216 (−22)K% 28.1% → 35.7%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA28.09%÷0.999×1.270——35.69%
BB% (unintentional) /PA8.99%÷1.006×0.710—×1.0276.52%
HBP% /PA2.25%—×0.790—×1.0271.82%
Singles /BIP22.00%÷0.987×0.920×1.050×1.02722.12%
Doubles /BIP4.00%÷0.928×0.810×1.050×1.0273.76%
Triples /BIP2.00%÷0.900×0.850×1.050×1.0272.04%
Home runs /BIP0.00%÷1.124×0.800—×1.0270.00%

Factors used: league row Midwest League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 125, 1B 97, 2B 86, 3B 80, K 100, BB 101 — applied at half strength. Age: age 21 vs a level average of 22.8 → +2.7% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.050.

Result: wOBA .238 → .216; ISO .053 → .052; BABIP .269 → .268. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 ADaytona Tortugas · 456 PAwOBA .322 → .267 (−55)K% 22.1% → 30.4%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA22.15%÷0.990×1.360——30.43%
BB% (unintentional) /PA6.80%÷0.991×0.690—×1.0304.88%
HBP% /PA3.95%—×0.780—×1.0303.17%
Singles /BIP22.11%÷0.960×0.920×1.021×1.03022.28%
Doubles /BIP7.26%÷1.032×0.830×1.021×1.0306.14%
Triples /BIP0.66%÷0.918×0.910×1.021×1.0300.69%
Home runs /BIP3.63%÷1.078×0.800—×1.0302.78%

Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 116, 1B 92, 2B 106, 3B 84, K 98, BB 98 — applied at half strength. Age: age 20 vs a level average of 22.0 → +3.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.0 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.021.

Result: wOBA .322 → .267; ISO .146 → .110; BABIP .308 → .296. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 ROKACL Reds · 175 PAwOBA .441 → .328 (−113)K% 20.0% → 28.1%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA20.00%÷1.027×1.440——28.05%
BB% (unintentional) /PA11.43%÷1.040×0.620—×1.0086.87%
HBP% /PA6.29%—×0.720—×1.0084.56%
Singles /BIP31.48%÷1.004×0.820×1.050×1.00827.20%
Doubles /BIP6.48%÷1.038×0.720×1.050×1.0084.75%
Triples /BIP3.70%÷1.150×0.720×1.050×1.0082.45%
Home runs /BIP4.63%÷1.059×0.780—×1.0083.44%

Factors used: level-wide ROK factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 112, 1B 101, 2B 108, 3B 130, K 105, BB 108 — applied at half strength. Age: age 19 vs a level average of 19.5 → +0.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.5 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.050.

Result: wOBA .441 → .328; ISO .210 → .148; BABIP .437 → .356. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 ADaytona Tortugas · 27 PAwOBA .404 → .342 (−62)K% 18.5% → 25.0%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA18.52%÷1.006×1.360——25.04%
BB% (unintentional) /PA18.52%÷1.006×0.690—×1.04513.28%
HBP% /PA11.11%—×0.780—×1.0459.06%
Singles /BIP42.86%÷1.032×0.920—×1.04539.92%
Doubles /BIP0.00%÷1.100×0.830—×1.0450.00%
Triples /BIP0.00%÷1.083×0.910—×1.0450.00%
Home runs /BIP0.00%÷1.060×0.800—×1.0450.00%

Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 112, 1B 106, 2B 120, 3B 117, K 101, BB 101 — applied at half strength. Age: age 19 vs a level average of 22.0 → +4.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.0 yr younger than average).

Result: wOBA .404 → .342; ISO .000 → .000; BABIP .429 → .399. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 DSLDSL Reds · 180 PAwOBA .333 → .224 (−109)K% 22.2% → 27.4%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA22.22%÷0.989×1.220——27.41%
BB% (unintentional) /PA7.22%÷1.045×0.700—×1.0084.87%
HBP% /PA7.78%—×0.700—×1.0085.49%
Singles /BIP23.64%÷1.019×0.680×1.046×1.00816.63%
Doubles /BIP5.45%÷1.054×0.600×1.046×1.0083.27%
Triples /BIP4.55%÷1.087×0.600×1.046×1.0082.64%
Home runs /BIP0.91%÷0.932×0.470—×1.0080.46%

Factors used: level-wide DSL factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 86, 1B 104, 2B 111, 3B 117, K 98, BB 109 — applied at half strength. Age: age 18 vs a level average of 18.5 → +0.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.5 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.046.

Result: wOBA .333 → .224; ISO .127 → .074; BABIP .333 → .222. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).