Ricky Cabrera — OGILVIE

Ricky CabreraSS Dayton Dragons

Age 21 R/R 6'0" / 201 lbs A+ HR +16%BB +6% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2035

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 185 proj PA

wRC+†42

AVG/OBP/SLG.166 / .239 / .254

PA16

HR0

K%31

BB%6

ISO89

MLB%0%

Value2026 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit-$8M ctrl surplus

Tools · ContractCON 45 / POW 45

Toolsscout grade

CONTACT45

scouting grade only

POWER45

scouting grade only

EYE45

scouting grade only

SPEED45

scouting grade only

DEFENSE45

scouting grade only

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2030

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2035

First FA Year 2036

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2030	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	—	—	—
2031	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	—	—	—
2032	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	—	—	—
2033	Arb-1	$0.2M	—	—	—
2034	Arb-2	$5M	—	—	—
2035	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$0.0M		$-3M	+$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2022	17	ROK	DSL Reds	—	180	150	38	6	5	1	13	40	14	5	4	253	367	380	747	127	333	22	7	337	115	+3	-1	—	—	+4	0.7
2023	18	A	Daytona Tortugas	—	27	19	6	0	0	0	5	5	3	3	0	316	519	316	834		429	19	19	412	165	+2	+1	—	—	+1	0.3
2023	18	ROK	ACL Reds	—	175	143	50	7	4	5	21	35	11	21	2	350	469	559	1.028	210	437	20	12	453	193	+19	+3	—	—	+4	2.7
2024	19	A	Daytona Tortugas	—	456	404	102	22	2	11	31	101	18	19	8	252	333	399	732	146	308	22	7	329	109	+5	+1	—	—	+10	1.5
2025	20	A+	Dayton Dragons	—	89	75	14	2	1	0	8	25	2	0	2	187	282	240	522	53	269	28	9	238	47	-6	-1	—	—	+2	-0.5
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2022	17	ROK MLE	DSL Reds	—	180	155	29	4	3	1	8	58	14	5	4	187	288	271	559	84	266	32	4	239	48	-11	-1	—	—	+4	-0.8
2023	18	A MLE	Daytona Tortugas	—	27	20	5	0	0	0	4	7	3	3	0	250	444	250	694		382	26	15	337	114	+0	+1	—	—	+1	0.2
2023	18	ROK MLE	ACL Reds	—	175	152	41	5	3	4	12	49	11	21	2	270	366	421	787	151	354	28	7	326	107	+1	+3	—	—	+4	0.9
2024	19	A MLE	Daytona Tortugas	—	456	412	88	19	2	8	23	145	18	19	8	214	285	328	612	114	297	32	5	269	68	-17	+1	—	—	+10	-0.7
2025	20	A+ MLE	Dayton Dragons	—	89	77	13	2	1	0	6	34	2	0	2	169	247	221	468	52	259	38	7	204	24	-8	-1	—	—	+2	-0.7
2022	17	ROK MLE	DSL Reds	—	180	155	29	4	3	1	8	58	14	5	4	187	288	271	559	84	286	32	4	239	48	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	17	ROK RAW	DSL Reds	—	180	150	38	6	5	1	13	40	14	5	4	253	367	380	747	127	333	22	7	337	48	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	18	ROK MLE	2 teams	—	202	172	46	5	3	4	16	56	14	24	2	267	376	401	777	134	375	28	8	327	108	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	18	ROK RAW	2 teams	—	202	162	56	7	4	5	26	40	14	24	2	346	475	531	1.006	185	436	20	13	448	108	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	19	A MLE	Daytona Tortugas	—	456	412	88	19	2	8	23	145	18	19	8	214	285	328	612	114	305	32	5	269	68	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	19	A RAW	Daytona Tortugas	—	456	404	102	22	2	11	31	101	18	19	8	252	333	399	732	146	308	22	7	329	68	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	20	A+ MLE	Dayton Dragons	—	89	77	13	2	1	0	6	34	2	0	2	169	247	221	468	52	289	38	7	204	24	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	20	A+ RAW	Dayton Dragons	—	89	75	14	2	1	0	8	25	2	0	2	187	282	240	522	53	269	28	9	238	24	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	17	ROK MLE	DSL Reds	—	180	156	29	4	3	1	8	58	14	5	4	186	288	269	557	83	266	32	4	239	48	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	18	ROK MLE	2 teams	—	202	170	46	5	3	4	16	56	14	24	2	271	376	406	782	135	358	28	8	327	108	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	19	A MLE	Daytona Tortugas	—	456	412	88	19	2	8	23	145	18	19	8	214	285	328	612	114	297	32	5	269	68	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	20	A+ MLE	Dayton Dragons	—	89	81	13	2	1	0	6	34	2	0	2	160	247	210	457	49	259	38	7	204	24	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2023	18	ROK MLE	2 teams	—	202	170	46	5	3	4	16	56	14	24	2	271	376	406	782	135	358	28	8	327	108	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	19	A MLE	Daytona Tortugas	—	456	412	88	19	2	8	23	145	18	19	8	214	285	328	612	114	297	32	5	269	68	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	20	A+ MLE	Dayton Dragons	—	89	81	13	2	1	0	6	34	2	0	2	160	247	210	457	49	259	38	7	204	24	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2026 season
2026	21	MLB MLE	CIN	0%	16	14	2	0	0	0	1	5	1	0	0	143	250	143	393		232	31	6	230	42	-1	+0	-0	+0	+0	-0.6
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
2027	22	MLB MLE	CIN	25%	227	204	36	7	1	4	14	67	7	5	2	176	253	279	533	103	240	30	6	247	54	-13	+0	-0	+2	+5	-0.6
2028	23	MLB MLE	CIN	38%	339	304	56	11	1	7	22	97	10	7	3	184	262	296	558	112	245	29	6	258	61	-16	+0	-1	+4	+7	-0.5
2029	24	MLB MLE	CIN	44%	416	374	73	14	2	10	27	117	12	8	4	195	271	324	595	128	248	28	6	265	65	-17	+0	-1	+4	+9	-0.5
2030	25	MLB MLE	CIN	47%	463	416	80	15	2	11	31	129	13	9	4	192	270	317	587	125	249	28	7	268	68	-18	+0	-1	+5	+10	-0.4
2031	26	MLB MLE	CIN	49%	490	441	85	16	2	12	33	136	13	10	4	193	269	320	589	127	249	28	7	269	68	-19	+0	-1	+5	+11	-0.3
2032	27	MLB MLE	CIN	49%	503	449	87	16	2	12	35	140	14	10	4	194	273	318	592	125	249	28	7	269	68	-19	+0	-1	+5	+11	-0.3
2033	28	MLB MLE	CIN	49%	506	452	87	16	2	12	35	142	14	10	4	192	271	316	588	124	249	28	7	268	68	-19	+0	-2	+5	+11	-0.5
2034	29	MLB MLE	CIN	48%	502	448	86	16	2	12	35	142	14	9	4	192	272	317	589	125	248	28	7	267	67	-20	+0	-2	+5	+11	-0.6
2027	22	MLB CTX	CIN	25%	57	52	9	2	0	1	3	17	2	1	0	173	246	269	515	96	242	30	5	230	54	-3	+0	-0	+1	+1	-0.1
2028	23	MLB CTX	CIN	38%	130	117	22	4	1	3	8	37	4	3	1	188	264	316	580	128	247	28	6	242	61	-6	+0	-0	+1	+3	-0.2
2029	24	MLB CTX	CIN	44%	183	164	33	6	1	5	12	51	5	4	2	201	276	341	618	140	251	28	7	250	65	-8	+0	-0	+2	+4	-0.2
2030	25	MLB CTX	CIN	47%	219	196	39	7	1	6	15	61	6	4	2	199	276	337	613	138	252	28	7	253	68	-8	+0	-0	+2	+5	-0.2
2031	26	MLB CTX	CIN	49%	241	216	42	8	1	6	16	67	7	5	2	194	272	324	596	130	252	28	7	254	68	-9	+0	-1	+3	+5	-0.2
2032	27	MLB CTX	CIN	49%	247	221	43	8	1	6	17	69	7	5	2	195	273	321	595	127	252	28	7	254	68	-9	+0	-1	+3	+5	-0.2
2033	28	MLB CTX	CIN	49%	249	223	43	8	1	6	17	70	7	5	2	193	271	318	590	126	251	28	7	254	68	-10	+0	-1	+3	+5	-0.2
2034	29	MLB CTX	CIN	48%	242	216	42	8	1	6	17	68	7	4	2	194	275	324	599	130	251	28	7	252	67	-10	+0	-1	+3	+5	-0.3
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	1568	1405	273	51	7	39	105	440	45	31	13	194	272	324	596	130	251	28	7	251	66	-63	+1	-4	+17	+34	-1.6
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	582	113	21	3	16	44	182	19	13	5	194	273	323	596	129	251	28	7	251	66	-26	+0	-2	+7	+14	-0.7
Career	—	MLE		—	4389	3918	768	141	23	93	286	1268	146	116	45	196	276	315	591	119	261	29	7	266	66	-141	+2	-10	+37	+75	-3.8
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	580	114	21	3	14	42	188	22	17	7	197	276	316	592	119	262	29	6	266	66	-27	+0	-2	+7	+14	-0.7

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	162s	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Sandy Leónlast yr '22 career totals — 9 seasons, 1,648 PA	2.5	1,648	31	1	209	276	313	+29	+56	6.4	6.7
/162	664	12	0	+11.9	+22.4	2.6	pk7: 7
#2J.P. Arencibialast yr '15 career totals — 5 seasons, 1,650 PA	2.5	1,650	78	2	213	260	414	+29	-4	4.2	4.2
/162	664	31	1	+11.9	-1.7	1.7	pk7: 4
#3Adam Engellast yr '22 career totals — 6 seasons, 1,540 PA	2.3	1,540	30	47	225	280	350	+4	+33	4.1	4.1
/162	664	13	20	+1.8	+14.4	1.8	pk7: 4
#4Ryan Goinslast yr '19 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,680 PA	2.5	1,680	22	6	230	279	335	+9	+21	2.0	2.0
/162	664	9	2	+3.7	+8.5	0.8	pk7: 2
#5Nick Senzellast yr '24 career totals — 6 seasons, 1,633 PA	2.5	1,633	40	33	232	299	363	+6	-14	0.9	0.9
/162	664	16	13	+2.4	-5.8	0.4	pk7: 1
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 4 projected seasons	2.4	1,569	37	31	193	267	317	+17	-8	-0.2	-0.0
/162	664	16	13	+7.1	-3.4	-0.1	pk7: 0
#6Alexi Amaristalast yr '17 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,901 PA	2.9	1,901	21	39	231	275	323	+14	-6	-1.1	-1.1
/162	664	7	14	+4.9	-2.1	-0.4	pk7: -1

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Ricky Cabrera (OGILVIE)	21	45	45	45	45	166/239/254	89	232	3	4	31%	6%	42	-0.9	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Wendell Rijo 2017 · AA	21	40→43	38→50	46→50	39	195/243/278	83	276	5	11	30%	6%	47	-2.6	200/256/290	90	266	8	8	26%	6%	55	-2.0	208/265/349	141	264	16	14	28%	6%	69	-0.6
✕Lenyn Sosa 2021 · A	21	42→51	40→50	43→40	37	207/237/300	93	263	7	5	25%	3%	49	-2.4	227/259/346	119	289	14	3	26%	4%	68	-1.0	243/274/380	137	290	18	3	23%	3%	80	-0.1
✕James Harris 2015 · A	21	39→49	41→40	48→50	39	196/247/289	93	281	9	12	33%	6%	51	-2.3	222/283/313	91	316	7	13	30%	7%	70	-0.9	231/296/319	89	325	6	15	29%	8%	73	-0.5
✕Ethan Workinger 2023 · A	21	37→43	43→45	45	38	188/239/301	113	261	9	5	31%	5%	51	-2.3	207/258/327	120	276	13	6	29%	6%	64	-1.3	199/256/318	119	244	14	9	24%	7%	58	-1.1
✕Orlando Calixte 2013 · A	21	41→49	43→45	47→55	38	205/244/319	114	274	11	9	29%	5%	56	-1.9	214/252/315	101	294	9	13	29%	5%	58	-1.7	224/266/309	86	296	9	20	27%	5%	60	-0.7
✕Derrick Mitchell 2008 · A	21	39→45	39→50	46→55	38	192/244/276	84	272	6	9	31%	5%	47	-2.5	198/237/319	121	257	11	10	27%	4%	54	-2.0	211/260/336	125	269	13	19	26%	5%	64	-0.9
✕Jonathan Ornelas 2021 · A	21	42→52	39→45	50	41	204/263/293	89	285	6	11	29%	6%	58	-1.7	228/278/329	101	310	10	10	28%	6%	72	-0.7	235/295/316	82	324	8	12	28%	7%	72	-0.6
✕José Barrero 2019 · A	21	42→47	38→50	46→55	34	205/240/288	83	286	6	9	30%	3%	47	-2.5	221/271/330	109	300	9	12	28%	4%	70	-0.9	181/250/321	140	264	17	24	36%	6%	59	-1.0
✕Francisco Acuna 2022 · A	22	38→48	39→45	48→50	45	182/274/268	86	264	6	10	31%	8%	58	-1.7	206/278/301	95	283	7	11	28%	7%	66	-1.1	217/289/313	96	287	8	16	26%	7%	70	-0.4
✕Glenn Santiago 2023 · A	22	41	41→40	46→45	39	201/255/297	96	286	8	8	32%	6%	55	-1.9	198/263/285	87	291	7	9	32%	7%	57	-1.8	182/254/257	75	267	7	8	32%	8%	46	-1.1
✕David Nick 2011 · A	21	42→52	40→45	48→50	40	207/254/304	97	266	7	9	25%	5%	57	-1.8	224/261/325	101	274	8	8	21%	4%	63	-1.3	218/251/313	95	276	8	10	24%	4%	54	-1.3
✕Imeldo Diaz 2019 · A	21	44	41→40	46→45	41	216/264/307	91	269	9	5	23%	5%	61	-1.5	230/264/310	80	304	5	5	25%	4%	61	-1.5	237/260/299	62	315	3	2	25%	2%	54	-0.6
✕Cutter Dykstra 2010 · A	21	40→50	40	47→55	43	198/260/282	84	275	8	11	30%	7%	54	-2.0	222/279/297	75	309	6	16	28%	6%	65	-1.2	239/307/326	86	317	6	16	24%	8%	79	-0.1
✕Jose Gil 2008 · A	21	40	41→45	43→45	41	201/245/294	92	258	10	4	26%	5%	51	-2.2	208/246/303	95	271	8	7	26%	4%	53	-2.1	213/262/333	120	261	13	3	23%	5%	64	-0.5
✕Luis Palacios 2010 · A	21	39	39→40	46→50	36	192/235/276	84	265	7	5	30%	4%	43	-2.8	192/239/270	78	302	5	7	36%	5%	43	-2.8	140/190/175	36	236	0	6	38%	6%	0	-1.0
✕Abrahan Gutierrez 2021 · A	21	44→43	39→45	46→40	43	214/262/293	80	273	7	6	24%	6%	57	-1.8	225/298/328	103	300	8	4	26%	8%	80	-0.2	218/296/319	101	289	9	2	26%	8%	74	-0.3
✕Avery Romero 2014 · A	21	39→49	41→40	45	44	196/256/293	97	241	9	5	23%	6%	55	-1.9	240/283/313	73	292	5	5	19%	5%	69	-0.9	238/284/306	67	289	4	4	18%	5%	65	-1.0
✕Gerson Montilla 2012 · AA	22	40→47	42→50	48→45	38	198/244/308	109	261	9	8	28%	4%	54	-2.0	224/264/345	121	270	13	6	22%	5%	70	-0.9	226/266/344	118	270	13	5	21%	5%	68	-0.9
✕Steven Baron 2012 · A	21	34	39→45	45→50	36	172/216/255	83	252	7	7	34%	5%	31	-3.7	189/226/284	95	266	6	9	30%	4%	41	-3.0	237/293/310	73	315	4	8	24%	7%	69	-0.4
✕Jose Cordoba 2023 · A	20	38	42→40	44→55	39	190/253/289	99	277	10	9	34%	6%	54	-2.0	206/263/300	94	283	6	11	28%	6%	59	-1.6	204/262/298	94	272	5	15	25%	6%	56	-0.8

Career Stats + Projections

Career Comps

Career Path Comps