Ricky Cabrera — OGILVIE

Ricky CabreraSS Dayton Dragons

Age 21 R/R 6'0" / 201 lbs A+ HR +6% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2035

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 185 proj PA

wRC+†33

AVG/OBP/SLG.165 / .239 / .250

PA185

HR3

K%31

BB%6

ISO86

MLB%0%

Value2026 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit

Tools · ContractCON 45 / POW 45

Toolsscout grade

CONTACT45

scouting grade only

POWER45

scouting grade only

EYE46

scouting grade only

SPEED45

scouting grade only

DEFENSE45

scouting grade only

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2030

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2035

First FA Year 2036

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2030	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	—	—	—
2031	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	—	—	—
2032	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2033	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2034	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2035	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$0.0M		$-1M	+$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Viewactual = stats as recorded (prior seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2022	17	ROK	DSL Reds	—	180	156	28	4	3	1	7	59	14	5	4	179	277	263	540	83	276	33	4	233	37	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	17	ROK	DSL Reds	—	180	150	38	6	5	1	13	40	14	5	4	253	367	380	747	127	333	22	7	337	116	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	18	ROK	2 teams	—	202	173	44	5	2	3	15	55	14	24	2	254	361	358	720	104	357	27	7	322	105	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	18	ROK	2 teams	—	202	162	56	7	4	5	26	40	14	24	2	346	475	531	1.006	185	436	20	13	448	201	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	19	A	Daytona Tortugas	—	456	411	88	18	2	7	24	146	18	19	8	214	287	319	606	105	310	32	5	269	64	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	19	A	Daytona Tortugas	—	456	404	102	22	2	11	31	101	18	19	8	252	333	399	732	146	308	22	7	329	110	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	20	A+	Dayton Dragons	—	89	77	13	2	1	0	6	34	2	0	2	169	247	221	468	52	289	38	7	209	18	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	20	A+	Dayton Dragons	—	89	75	14	2	1	0	8	25	2	0	2	187	282	240	522	53	269	28	9	238	40	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2026 Season
2026	21	MLB	CIN	—	185	166	28	5	1	3	11	57	6	4	2	169	246	265	511	96	233	31	6	229	33	-14	+0	-0	+2	+5	-0.7
▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘPARK-NEUTRAL MLE · ALL-LEVEL PT ⓘ
2027	22	MLB	CIN	25%	227	204	37	7	1	4	14	67	7	5	2	181	258	284	542	103	240	30	6	247	47	-14	+0	-0	+2	+6	-0.5
2028	23	MLB	CIN	38%	339	304	58	11	2	7	22	97	10	7	3	191	268	309	577	118	245	29	6	258	55	-17	+0	-1	+4	+10	-0.5
2029	24	MLB	CIN	44%	416	374	71	13	2	9	28	117	11	8	4	190	266	307	574	118	249	28	7	264	60	-19	+0	-1	+4	+12	-0.3
2030	25	MLB	CIN	47%	463	416	81	15	2	11	31	129	13	9	4	195	272	320	591	125	250	28	7	268	63	-19	+0	-1	+5	+13	-0.2
2031	26	MLB	CIN	49%	490	441	86	16	2	12	33	137	13	10	4	195	271	322	593	127	250	28	7	268	64	-20	+0	-1	+5	+14	-0.2
2027	22	MLB	CIN	25%	57	52	9	2	0	1	3	17	2	1	0	173	246	269	515	96	242	30	5	227	32	-4	+0	-0	+1	+2	-0.2
2028	23	MLB	CIN	38%	130	117	23	4	1	3	8	37	4	3	1	197	271	325	596	128	248	28	6	239	41	-9	+0	-0	+1	+4	-0.4
2029	24	MLB	CIN	44%	183	164	32	6	1	4	12	52	5	4	2	195	271	317	588	122	251	28	7	247	47	-11	+0	-0	+2	+5	-0.4
2030	25	MLB	CIN	47%	219	196	38	7	1	5	15	61	6	4	2	194	272	316	588	122	252	28	7	250	50	-12	+0	-0	+2	+6	-0.4
2031	26	MLB	CIN	49%	241	216	43	8	1	6	16	67	7	5	2	199	276	329	605	130	252	28	7	251	50	-14	+0	-1	+3	+7	-0.5
▸ Career Totals
Career	—			—	830	745	145	27	4	19	54	234	24	17	7	195	271	318	589	123	254	28	7	246	47	-50	+1	-2	+9	+24	-1.9
/ 162G	—			—	650	583	113	21	3	15	42	183	19	13	5	194	270	317	587	123	253	28	6	246	47	-39	+1	-1	+7	+18	-1.5
Career	—			—	3047	2722	534	96	18	57	191	898	108	91	35	196	276	307	583	111	267	29	6	262	59	-141	+4	-5	+33	+86	-2.3
/ 162G	—			—	650	581	113	20	4	12	41	192	23	19	7	194	275	305	579	110	265	30	6	262	59	-30	+1	-1	+7	+18	-0.5

Historical Stats — Raw (Per Stint)

Actual MLB + MiLB stats as they happened, one row per stint at each level. Use this to see what really got recorded; the table above shows MLB-equivalent translations + projections.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2022	17	ROK	DSL Reds	—	180	150	38	6	5	1	13	40	14	5	4	253	367	380	747	127	333	22	7	337	116	+3	-1	—	—	+5	0.8
2023	18	A	Daytona Tortugas	—	27	19	6	0	0	0	5	5	3	3	0	316	519	316	834		429	19	19	412	173	+2	+1	—	—	+1	0.4
2023	18	ROK	ACL Reds	—	175	143	50	7	4	5	21	35	11	21	2	350	469	559	1.028	210	437	20	12	453	205	+21	+3	—	—	+5	3.0
2024	19	A	Daytona Tortugas	—	456	404	102	22	2	11	31	101	18	19	8	252	333	399	732	146	308	22	7	329	110	+5	+1	—	—	+13	1.9
2025	20	A+	Dayton Dragons	—	89	75	14	2	1	0	8	25	2	0	2	187	282	240	522	53	269	28	9	238	40	-6	-1	—	—	+3	-0.4

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Top row of each card is career totals; bottom row is per-162-game rates. Pool: 727 completed hitter careers (2000-2024).

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	YRS	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Chris Owingslast yr '22 career totals — 9 seasons, 2,420 PA	9	2,420	35	78	239	286	365	+13	-0	3.7	4.5
	/162	664	10	21	239	286	365	+3.6	-0.1	1.0	pk7: 5
#2J.P. Arencibialast yr '15 career totals — 5 seasons, 1,650 PA	5	1,650	78	2	213	260	414	+29	-4	4.2	4.2
	/162	664	31	1	213	260	414	+11.9	-1.7	1.7	pk7: 4
#3Adam Rosaleslast yr '17 career totals — 9 seasons, 1,756 PA	9	1,756	47	16	227	293	367	+6	+8	3.0	3.5
	/162	664	18	6	227	293	367	+2.4	+3.0	1.1	pk7: 4
#4Ryan Goinslast yr '19 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,680 PA	7	1,680	22	6	230	279	335	+9	+21	2.0	2.0
#4Ryan Goinslast yr '19 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,680 PA	/162	664	9	2	230	279	335	+3.7	+8.5	0.8	pk7: 2
#5Nick Senzellast yr '24 career totals — 6 seasons, 1,633 PA	6	1,633	40	33	232	299	363	+6	-14	0.9	0.9
	/162	664	16	13	232	299	363	+2.4	-5.8	0.4	pk7: 1
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 2 projected seasons	2	831	19	17	192	266	314	+9	-4	-0.5	-0.2
	/162	664	15	14	192	266	314	+7.1	-3.2	-0.4	pk7: 0
#6Alexi Amaristalast yr '17 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,901 PA	7	1,901	21	39	231	275	323	+14	-6	-1.1	-1.1
	/162	664	7	14	231	275	323	+4.9	-2.1	-0.4	pk7: -1

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Ricky Cabrera (OGILVIE)	21	45	45	45	46	165/239/250	85	233	3	4	31%	6%	33	-0.9	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Ethan Workinger 2023 · A	21	38→44	42→50	45	39	189/240/301	111	260	9	5	30%	5%	45	-2.1	211/260/341	130	280	14	6	29%	6%	64	-0.8	204/258/343	139	247	18	9	25%	6%	60	-0.7
✕Derrick Mitchell 2008 · A	21	39→47	39→50	46→55	38	192/244/276	84	272	6	9	31%	5%	40	-2.4	198/237/318	120	258	11	10	27%	4%	48	-1.9	215/265/342	127	278	13	19	27%	5%	63	-0.6
✕James Harris 2015 · A	21	40→50	41→40	48→50	38	199/248/293	95	285	10	12	33%	6%	46	-2.0	225/287/317	92	321	7	13	30%	7%	68	-0.5	235/301/325	90	331	5	15	28%	8%	73	-0.1
✕Jonathan Ornelas 2021 · A	21	41→51	39→45	50	42	199/261/284	85	279	6	11	30%	7%	50	-1.8	227/277/335	108	310	11	10	29%	6%	69	-0.4	235/295/324	88	326	9	12	29%	7%	70	-0.3
✕Cutter Dykstra 2010 · A	21	40→50	40	47→55	43	198/260/282	84	275	8	11	30%	7%	48	-1.9	217/273/292	75	304	6	16	29%	6%	56	-1.3	232/301/316	84	315	6	16	26%	8%	72	-0.2
✕Orlando Calixte 2013 · A	21	40→50	44→45	47→55	38	205/243/326	121	272	12	9	29%	4%	52	-1.6	211/248/315	104	296	10	13	31%	5%	51	-1.7	233/273/324	91	306	9	20	26%	5%	61	-0.4
✕David Nick 2011 · A	21	41→51	41→45	48→50	40	203/248/303	100	262	7	9	26%	5%	48	-1.9	220/257/318	98	271	8	8	21%	4%	56	-1.3	212/246/302	91	271	8	10	24%	4%	43	-1.5
✕Imeldo Diaz 2019 · A	21	44	41→40	46→45	41	216/264/307	91	269	9	5	23%	5%	56	-1.3	228/262/305	77	301	5	5	25%	4%	53	-1.5	232/255/291	58	309	3	2	25%	2%	44	-0.7
✕Wendell Rijo 2017 · AA	21	39→41	39→55	46→50	38	192/239/276	85	274	6	11	31%	5%	37	-2.6	199/255/292	93	268	8	8	28%	6%	49	-1.8	208/263/371	163	264	20	14	29%	6%	70	-0.2
✕Avery Romero 2014 · A	21	40→50	41→40	45	44	195/257/291	95	242	9	5	23%	6%	50	-1.8	243/286/317	74	297	5	5	19%	5%	67	-0.5	241/287/310	69	293	4	4	18%	5%	62	-0.7
✕Jalen Miller 2018 · A	21	38→43	40→50	47→50	38	190/231/282	92	254	7	7	28%	5%	35	-2.8	203/247/322	119	270	12	12	29%	5%	53	-1.5	181/240/315	134	234	16	18	30%	7%	46	-1.3
✕Claudio Finol 2022 · A	22	40	39→40	46→45	40	193/251/277	85	270	5	6	30%	6%	43	-2.2	194/250/277	83	275	7	9	30%	6%	43	-2.2	181/246/258	77	260	9	12	32%	7%	35	-0.7
✕Jordyn Adams 2021 · A	21	40	40→45	47→60	41	196/258/286	91	287	8	9	33%	7%	49	-1.8	189/245/281	92	306	8	24	38%	6%	41	-2.3	186/248/297	110	286	13	26	38%	7%	45	-1.1
✕Gioskar Amaya 2014 · A	21	41→48	39→40	49→50	39	200/253/292	92	279	5	9	29%	5%	48	-1.9	201/266/279	78	285	5	10	29%	7%	50	-1.7	194/263/262	69	276	5	10	29%	7%	42	-1.5
✕Glenn Santiago 2023 · A	22	42	41→40	46→45	39	204/256/303	99	288	9	8	31%	6%	52	-1.6	199/262/282	83	293	7	9	32%	7%	50	-1.8	183/253/253	70	269	6	8	32%	7%	37	-1.1
✕Arturo De Freitas 2022 · A	21	43	38→45	50→40	39	204/264/287	82	286	5	8	29%	5%	51	-1.7	173/225/248	75	289	7	4	40%	6%	24	-3.5	136/184/191	55	233	5	0	42%	5%	-10	-2.1
✕Deivi Mejia 2011 · A	21	40	39→40	43→30	44	193/264/278	85	266	7	5	29%	8%	50	-1.8	212/259/304	92	276	7	4	25%	4%	53	-1.5	224/268/311	87	267	6	1	18%	3%	59	-0.4
✕Abrahan Gutierrez 2021 · A	21	44→45	40	46→40	43	215/264/301	87	273	8	6	24%	6%	54	-1.4	227/296/326	99	305	8	4	26%	8%	75	-0.0	220/294/315	95	295	8	2	26%	8%	68	-0.2
✕Luis Palacios 2010 · A	21	39	39→40	46→50	36	192/235/276	84	265	7	5	30%	4%	36	-2.7	190/239/268	78	302	5	7	36%	5%	35	-2.8	130/184/163	32	225	0	6	40%	6%	-19	-1.1
✕Jose Ramirez 2010 · A	21	39	38→40	46→50	43	188/249/265	77	248	5	10	25%	6%	40	-2.4	211/278/295	84	273	7	11	24%	7%	60	-1.0	214/288/286	72	266	9	15	22%	7%	59	-0.5