Luis Carpio
| Year | Age | Lvl / Team | PA | AVG/OBP/SLG | HR | SB | wRC+ | WAR | MLE AVG/OBP/SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2019 | 22 | AA/A+/INTL2 orgs | 418 | .274/.354/.369 | 4 | 4 | 76 | — | .249/.317/.333 |
| 2021 | 24 | AANYM | 341 | .249/.326/.384 | 7 | 6 | 54 | — | .200/.259/.298 |
| 2022 | 25 | AADET | 274 | .218/.301/.300 | 2 | 8 | 37 | — | .183/.246/.251 |
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built
All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | MLB% | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | SO | HBP | SB | CS | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | ISO | BABIP | K% | BB% | wOBA | wRC+ | BAT | RUN | FLD | POS | REP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2014 | 17 | ROK | DSL Mets 2 | — | 250 | 209 | 49 | 9 | 1 | 1 | 33 | 33 | 4 | 12 | 4 | 234 | 350 | 301 | 651 | 67 | 271 | 13 | 13 | 302 | 26 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 18 | ROK | Kingsport Mets | — | 207 | 181 | 55 | 10 | 0 | 0 | 17 | 34 | 5 | 9 | 7 | 304 | 379 | 359 | 738 | 55 | 364 | 16 | 8 | 334 | 57 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 19 | ROK | GCL Mets | — | 34 | 31 | 9 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 11 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 290 | 353 | 387 | 740 | 97 | 450 | 32 | 3 | 335 | 30 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 20 | A | Columbia Fireflies | — | 535 | 474 | 110 | 18 | 3 | 3 | 53 | 95 | 2 | 17 | 5 | 232 | 312 | 302 | 614 | 70 | 280 | 18 | 10 | 281 | 47 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 21 | A+ | St. Lucie Mets | — | 436 | 389 | 85 | 21 | 0 | 12 | 40 | 80 | 1 | 8 | 9 | 219 | 293 | 365 | 658 | 147 | 241 | 18 | 9 | 293 | 48 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 22 | AA | Binghamton Rumble Ponies | — | 276 | 243 | 64 | 15 | 0 | 3 | 28 | 49 | 3 | 2 | 6 | 263 | 347 | 362 | 709 | 99 | 319 | 18 | 10 | 322 | 76 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 22 | A+ | St. Lucie Mets | — | 106 | 94 | 31 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 10 | 15 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 330 | 400 | 426 | 826 | 96 | 380 | 14 | 9 | 370 | 82 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 22 | INTL | Scottsdale Scorpions | — | 36 | 32 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 188 | 278 | 250 | 528 | 62 | 250 | 22 | 11 | 249 | 55 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 24 | AA | Binghamton Rumble Ponies | — | 341 | 305 | 76 | 20 | 0 | 7 | 33 | 89 | 2 | 6 | 5 | 249 | 326 | 384 | 710 | 134 | 329 | 26 | 10 | 320 | 54 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 25 | AA | Erie SeaWolves | — | 274 | 243 | 53 | 14 | 0 | 2 | 27 | 67 | 2 | 8 | 1 | 218 | 301 | 300 | 602 | 82 | 290 | 24 | 10 | 277 | 37 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2014 | 17 | ROK MLE | DSL Mets 2 | — | 250 | 218 | 34 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 24 | 40 | 4 | 12 | 4 | 156 | 252 | 193 | 445 | 37 | 181 | 16 | 10 | 207 | 26 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 18 | ROK MLE | Kingsport Mets | — | 207 | 187 | 43 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 11 | 48 | 5 | 9 | 7 | 230 | 291 | 267 | 558 | 37 | 293 | 23 | 5 | 252 | 57 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 19 | ROK MLE | GCL Mets | — | 34 | 31 | 7 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 16 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 226 | 294 | 323 | 617 | 97 | 362 | 47 | 3 | 212 | 30 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 20 | A MLE | Columbia Fireflies | — | 535 | 490 | 101 | 15 | 3 | 3 | 37 | 123 | 2 | 17 | 5 | 206 | 265 | 267 | 532 | 61 | 261 | 23 | 7 | 238 | 47 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 21 | A+ MLE | St. Lucie Mets | — | 436 | 396 | 70 | 19 | 0 | 9 | 33 | 117 | 1 | 8 | 9 | 177 | 242 | 293 | 535 | 116 | 216 | 27 | 8 | 239 | 48 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 22 | AA MLE | Binghamton Rumble Ponies | — | 276 | 249 | 60 | 14 | 0 | 2 | 22 | 55 | 3 | 2 | 6 | 241 | 310 | 321 | 632 | 80 | 295 | 20 | 8 | 280 | 76 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 22 | A+ MLE | St. Lucie Mets | — | 106 | 96 | 26 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 8 | 23 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 271 | 333 | 365 | 698 | 94 | 323 | 22 | 8 | 290 | 82 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 24 | AA MLE | Binghamton Rumble Ponies | — | 341 | 315 | 63 | 16 | 0 | 5 | 23 | 107 | 2 | 6 | 5 | 200 | 259 | 298 | 557 | 98 | 281 | 31 | 7 | 248 | 54 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 25 | AA MLE | Erie SeaWolves | — | 274 | 251 | 46 | 11 | 0 | 2 | 19 | 82 | 2 | 8 | 1 | 183 | 246 | 251 | 497 | 68 | 258 | 30 | 7 | 223 | 37 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 17 | ROK MLE | DSL Mets 2 | — | 250 | 218 | 34 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 24 | 40 | 4 | 12 | 4 | 156 | 252 | 193 | 445 | 37 | 189 | 16 | 10 | 207 | 26 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 17 | ROK RAW | DSL Mets 2 | — | 250 | 209 | 49 | 9 | 1 | 1 | 33 | 33 | 4 | 12 | 4 | 234 | 350 | 301 | 651 | 67 | 271 | 13 | 13 | 302 | 26 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 18 | ROK MLE | Kingsport Mets | — | 207 | 187 | 43 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 11 | 48 | 5 | 9 | 7 | 230 | 291 | 267 | 558 | 37 | 301 | 23 | 5 | 252 | 57 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 18 | ROK RAW | Kingsport Mets | — | 207 | 181 | 55 | 10 | 0 | 0 | 17 | 34 | 5 | 9 | 7 | 304 | 379 | 359 | 738 | 55 | 364 | 16 | 8 | 334 | 57 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 19 | ROK MLE | GCL Mets | — | 34 | 31 | 7 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 16 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 226 | 294 | 323 | 617 | 97 | 467 | 47 | 3 | 212 | 30 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 19 | ROK RAW | GCL Mets | — | 34 | 31 | 9 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 11 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 290 | 353 | 387 | 740 | 97 | 450 | 32 | 3 | 335 | 30 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 20 | A MLE | Columbia Fireflies | — | 535 | 490 | 101 | 15 | 3 | 3 | 37 | 123 | 2 | 17 | 5 | 206 | 265 | 267 | 532 | 61 | 265 | 23 | 7 | 238 | 47 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 20 | A RAW | Columbia Fireflies | — | 535 | 474 | 110 | 18 | 3 | 3 | 53 | 95 | 2 | 17 | 5 | 232 | 312 | 302 | 614 | 70 | 280 | 18 | 10 | 281 | 47 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 21 | A+ MLE | St. Lucie Mets | — | 436 | 396 | 70 | 19 | 0 | 9 | 33 | 117 | 1 | 8 | 9 | 177 | 242 | 293 | 535 | 116 | 221 | 27 | 8 | 239 | 48 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 21 | A+ RAW | St. Lucie Mets | — | 436 | 389 | 85 | 21 | 0 | 12 | 40 | 80 | 1 | 8 | 9 | 219 | 293 | 365 | 658 | 147 | 241 | 18 | 9 | 293 | 48 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 22 | AA MLE | 3 teams | — | 418 | 379 | 92 | 19 | 1 | 3 | 32 | 86 | 4 | 4 | 10 | 243 | 308 | 322 | 630 | 79 | 306 | 21 | 8 | 283 | 78 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 22 | AA RAW | 3 teams | — | 418 | 369 | 101 | 21 | 1 | 4 | 42 | 72 | 4 | 4 | 10 | 274 | 354 | 369 | 723 | 95 | 330 | 17 | 10 | 328 | 78 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 24 | AA MLE | Binghamton Rumble Ponies | — | 341 | 315 | 63 | 16 | 0 | 5 | 23 | 107 | 2 | 6 | 5 | 200 | 259 | 298 | 557 | 98 | 284 | 31 | 7 | 248 | 54 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 24 | AA RAW | Binghamton Rumble Ponies | — | 341 | 305 | 76 | 20 | 0 | 7 | 33 | 89 | 2 | 6 | 5 | 249 | 326 | 384 | 710 | 134 | 329 | 26 | 10 | 320 | 54 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 25 | AA MLE | Erie SeaWolves | — | 274 | 251 | 46 | 11 | 0 | 2 | 19 | 82 | 2 | 8 | 1 | 183 | 246 | 251 | 497 | 68 | 260 | 30 | 7 | 223 | 37 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 25 | AA RAW | Erie SeaWolves | — | 274 | 243 | 53 | 14 | 0 | 2 | 27 | 67 | 2 | 8 | 1 | 218 | 301 | 300 | 602 | 82 | 290 | 24 | 10 | 277 | 37 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 17 | ROK MLE | DSL Mets 2 | — | 250 | 220 | 34 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 24 | 40 | 4 | 12 | 4 | 155 | 252 | 191 | 443 | 36 | 181 | 16 | 10 | 207 | 26 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 18 | ROK MLE | Kingsport Mets | — | 207 | 189 | 43 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 11 | 48 | 5 | 9 | 7 | 228 | 291 | 265 | 555 | 37 | 293 | 23 | 5 | 252 | 57 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 19 | ROK MLE | GCL Mets | — | 34 | 31 | 7 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 16 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 226 | 294 | 323 | 617 | 97 | 362 | 47 | 3 | 212 | 30 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 20 | A MLE | Columbia Fireflies | — | 535 | 491 | 101 | 15 | 3 | 3 | 37 | 123 | 2 | 17 | 5 | 206 | 265 | 267 | 531 | 61 | 261 | 23 | 7 | 238 | 47 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 21 | A+ MLE | St. Lucie Mets | — | 436 | 399 | 70 | 19 | 0 | 9 | 33 | 117 | 1 | 8 | 9 | 175 | 242 | 291 | 533 | 115 | 216 | 27 | 8 | 239 | 48 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 22 | AA MLE | 3 teams | — | 418 | 379 | 92 | 19 | 1 | 3 | 32 | 86 | 4 | 4 | 10 | 243 | 308 | 322 | 630 | 79 | 303 | 21 | 8 | 283 | 78 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 24 | AA MLE | Binghamton Rumble Ponies | — | 341 | 313 | 63 | 16 | 0 | 5 | 23 | 107 | 2 | 6 | 5 | 201 | 259 | 300 | 559 | 99 | 281 | 31 | 7 | 248 | 54 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 25 | AA MLE | Erie SeaWolves | — | 274 | 251 | 46 | 11 | 0 | 2 | 19 | 82 | 2 | 8 | 1 | 183 | 246 | 251 | 497 | 68 | 258 | 30 | 7 | 223 | 37 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Career Totals | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | MLE | — | 2495 | 2267 | 456 | 94 | 6 | 22 | 180 | 619 | 22 | 64 | 41 | 201 | 267 | 277 | 544 | 76 | 263 | 25 | 7 | 243 | 51 | -146 | -4 | +0 | +9 | +54 | -8.9 | |
| / 162G | — | MLE | — | 650 | 591 | 119 | 24 | 2 | 6 | 47 | 161 | 6 | 17 | 11 | 201 | 267 | 279 | 547 | 78 | 263 | 25 | 7 | 243 | 51 | -38 | -1 | +0 | +2 | +14 | -2.3 | |
How the minor-league lines were translated
One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.
2022 AAErie SeaWolves · 274 PAwOBA .272 → .223 (−49)K% 24.5% → 30.0%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 24.45% | ÷0.995 | ×1.220 | — | — | 29.97% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 9.85% | ÷0.992 | ×0.700 | — | ×0.998 | 6.94% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.73% | — | ×0.850 | — | ×0.998 | 0.62% |
| Singles /BIP | 21.02% | ÷1.042 | ×0.970 | ×0.993 | ×0.998 | 19.40% |
| Doubles /BIP | 7.95% | ÷1.042 | ×0.860 | ×0.993 | ×0.998 | 6.50% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.900 | ×0.950 | ×0.993 | ×0.998 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 1.14% | ÷0.926 | ×0.780 | — | ×0.998 | 0.95% |
Factors used: league row EL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 85, 1B 108, 2B 108, 3B 80, K 99, BB 98 — applied at half strength. Age: age 25 vs a level average of 24.8 → −0.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.993.
Result: wOBA .272 → .223; ISO .082 → .066; BABIP .290 → .258. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2021 AABinghamton Rumble Ponies · 341 PAwOBA .313 → .248 (−65)K% 26.1% → 31.3%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 26.10% | ÷1.017 | ×1.220 | — | — | 31.30% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 9.68% | ÷1.018 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.012 | 6.64% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.59% | — | ×0.850 | — | ×1.012 | 0.50% |
| Singles /BIP | 22.69% | ÷1.045 | ×0.940 | ×0.969 | ×1.012 | 20.01% |
| Doubles /BIP | 9.26% | ÷1.053 | ×0.870 | ×0.969 | ×1.012 | 7.50% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.060 | ×0.920 | ×0.969 | ×1.012 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 3.24% | ÷0.995 | ×0.780 | — | ×1.012 | 2.57% |
Factors used: level-wide AA factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 99, 1B 109, 2B 111, 3B 112, K 103, BB 104 — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 24.8 → +1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.969.
Result: wOBA .313 → .248; ISO .134 → .105; BABIP .329 → .281. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2019 AABinghamton Rumble Ponies · 276 PAwOBA .314 → .280 (−34)K% 17.8% → 20.0%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 17.75% | ÷1.083 | ×1.220 | — | — | 19.99% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 10.14% | ÷0.942 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.042 | 7.86% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.09% | — | ×0.850 | — | ×1.042 | 0.96% |
| Singles /BIP | 23.71% | ÷1.026 | ×0.970 | ×0.950 | ×1.042 | 22.20% |
| Doubles /BIP | 7.73% | ÷0.945 | ×0.860 | ×0.950 | ×1.042 | 6.97% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.900 | ×0.950 | ×0.950 | ×1.042 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 1.55% | ÷1.012 | ×0.780 | — | ×1.042 | 1.24% |
Factors used: league row EL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 102, 1B 105, 2B 89, 3B 80, K 117, BB 88 — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 24.8 → +4.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.
Result: wOBA .314 → .280; ISO .099 → .086; BABIP .319 → .295. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2019 A+St. Lucie Mets · 106 PAwOBA .364 → .290 (−74)K% 14.2% → 21.9%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 14.15% | ÷0.917 | ×1.420 | — | — | 21.91% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 9.43% | ÷0.975 | ×0.750 | — | ×1.012 | 7.34% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.94% | — | ×0.930 | — | ×1.012 | 0.89% |
| Singles /BIP | 31.65% | ÷1.048 | ×0.920 | ×0.950 | ×1.012 | 26.72% |
| Doubles /BIP | 5.06% | ÷0.978 | ×0.960 | ×0.950 | ×1.012 | 4.78% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.27% | ÷1.062 | ×0.810 | ×0.950 | ×1.012 | 0.93% |
| Home runs /BIP | 1.27% | ÷1.122 | ×0.880 | — | ×1.012 | 1.00% |
Factors used: league row FSL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 124, 1B 110, 2B 96, 3B 112, K 83, BB 95 — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 22.8 → +1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.
Result: wOBA .364 → .290; ISO .096 → .076; BABIP .380 → .323. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2018 A+St. Lucie Mets · 436 PAwOBA .288 → .239 (−49)K% 18.3% → 26.9%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 18.35% | ÷0.967 | ×1.420 | — | — | 26.95% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 8.94% | ÷0.907 | ×0.750 | — | ×1.027 | 7.60% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.23% | — | ×0.930 | — | ×1.027 | 0.22% |
| Singles /BIP | 16.83% | ÷1.022 | ×0.920 | ×0.950 | ×1.027 | 14.78% |
| Doubles /BIP | 6.80% | ÷0.964 | ×0.960 | ×0.950 | ×1.027 | 6.60% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.900 | ×0.810 | ×0.950 | ×1.027 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 3.88% | ÷1.074 | ×0.880 | — | ×1.027 | 3.27% |
Factors used: league row FSL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 115, 1B 104, 2B 93, 3B 80, K 93, BB 81 — applied at half strength. Age: age 21 vs a level average of 22.8 → +2.7% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.
Result: wOBA .288 → .239; ISO .147 → .120; BABIP .241 → .216. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2017 AColumbia Fireflies · 535 PAwOBA .278 → .238 (−39)K% 17.8% → 22.9%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 17.76% | ÷1.037 | ×1.340 | — | — | 22.95% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 9.91% | ÷0.981 | ×0.660 | — | ×1.030 | 6.86% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.37% | — | ×0.770 | — | ×1.030 | 0.30% |
| Singles /BIP | 22.69% | ÷1.009 | ×0.920 | ×1.001 | ×1.030 | 21.35% |
| Doubles /BIP | 4.75% | ÷0.976 | ×0.820 | ×1.001 | ×1.030 | 4.12% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.79% | ÷0.900 | ×0.940 | ×1.001 | ×1.030 | 0.85% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.79% | ÷0.995 | ×0.820 | — | ×1.030 | 0.67% |
Factors used: league row SAL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 99, 1B 102, 2B 95, 3B 80, K 107, BB 96 — applied at half strength. Age: age 20 vs a level average of 22.0 → +3.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.0 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.001.
Result: wOBA .278 → .238; ISO .070 → .062; BABIP .280 → .261. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2016 ROKGCL Mets · 34 PAwOBA .327 → .212 (−115)K% 32.4% → 46.6%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 32.35% | ÷1.000 | ×1.440 | — | — | 46.59% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 2.94% | ÷1.000 | ×0.620 | — | ×1.008 | 1.84% |
| HBP% /PA | 5.88% | — | ×0.720 | — | ×1.008 | 4.27% |
| Singles /BIP | 35.00% | ÷1.000 | ×0.820 | — | ×1.008 | 28.92% |
| Doubles /BIP | 5.00% | ÷1.000 | ×0.720 | — | ×1.008 | 3.63% |
| Triples /BIP | 5.00% | ÷1.000 | ×0.720 | — | ×1.008 | 3.63% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.000 | ×0.780 | — | ×1.008 | 0.00% |
Factors used: level-wide ROK factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 19 vs a level average of 19.5 → +0.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.5 yr younger than average).
Result: wOBA .327 → .212; ISO .097 → .056; BABIP .450 → .362. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2015 ROKKingsport Mets · 207 PAwOBA .332 → .252 (−80)K% 16.4% → 23.3%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 16.43% | ÷1.000 | ×1.420 | — | — | 23.32% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 8.21% | ÷1.000 | ×0.640 | — | ×1.022 | 5.37% |
| HBP% /PA | 2.42% | — | ×0.740 | — | ×1.022 | 1.83% |
| Singles /BIP | 30.61% | ÷1.000 | ×0.840 | ×0.958 | ×1.022 | 25.19% |
| Doubles /BIP | 6.80% | ÷1.000 | ×0.740 | ×0.958 | ×1.022 | 4.93% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.000 | ×0.740 | ×0.958 | ×1.022 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.000 | ×0.800 | — | ×1.022 | 0.00% |
Factors used: level-wide ROK factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 18 vs a level average of 19.5 → +2.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.5 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.958.
Result: wOBA .332 → .252; ISO .055 → .039; BABIP .364 → .293. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
Not traceable per stint: some stints lack the counting stats the component translation needs. Level-wide factors that apply instead — .