Juan Guerrero

SS Hartford Yard Goats
Age 25 R/R 6'2" / 160 lbs AA HR +30%H +12% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2035
Overview
AAPROSPECTMiLBFA 2036
ETA2029MLB%2%
YearAgeLvl / TeamPAAVG/OBP/SLGHRSBwRC+WARMLE AVG/OBP/SLG
202321A+COL488.256/.318/.37461455—.215/.262/.310
202422AA/A+/INTL2 orgs628.284/.327/.393103169—.264/.294/.334
202523AACOL413.259/.320/.32221366—.251/.298/.304
2027PROJMLE25MLBCOL3.238/.279/.3070059-0.0
2028PROJ31% MLB26MLBCOL54.241/.284/.3241164-0.0
2029PROJ42% MLB27MLBCOL93.241/.286/.3271165-0.1
Next 3 projected WAR -0.1Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.
ContractESTIMATED
Control thru2035Service0.0First FA2036
2027MiLB2028MiLB2029MiLB2030Ext$0.8M2031Ext$0.9M2032Ext$0.9M2033Ext$3M2034Ext$5M+1
Skills · percentileMiLB Statcast 2025 AA
K%90
Whiff%71
Z-Con%63
wRC+37
wOBA36
Speed33
CompsShawn Roof (age 25) · Alfredo Rodriguez (age 25) · Luis Porchas (age 25)
2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONstats below = full-season projection
showingPROJ
wRC+†59
AVG/OBP/SLG.238 / .279 / .307
PA3
HR0
K%33
BB%5
BABIP289
ISO60
MLB%2%
Value2027 · WAR
BAT: -7.9 runs (wOBA-derived runs vs avg)-8BATRUN: +0.3 runs (SB/CS + UBR baserunning)+0RUNFLD: +0.0 runs (Defensive runs vs avg)+0FLDPOS: +1.7 runs (Positional adjustment)+2POSREP: +3.5 runs (Replacement-level credit)+3REPTotal WAR: -0.10-0.1WAR
trajectory · projected WAR by year
-0.10.0-0.1272829
Tools · ContractCON 50 / POW 30
Toolsscout grade
CONTACT50
scouting grade only
POWER30
scouting grade only
EYE35
scouting grade only
SPEED50
scouting grade only
Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)
Status   MiLB
MLB Debut   2030
Service   0 yrs (est)
Team Control Through   2035
First FA Year   2036
YearStatusSalary Proj WAR Value Surplus
2027MiLBstill in minors · estimated debut 2030
2028MiLBstill in minors · estimated debut 2030
2029MiLBstill in minors · estimated debut 2030
2030Extbeyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2031Extbeyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2032Extbeyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2033Extbeyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2034Extbeyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2035Extbeyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals $0.0M $0.0M +$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.
basis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

YearAge LvlTeam MLB% PAAB H2B3BHR BBSOHBP SBCS AVGOBPSLGOPS ISOBABIP K%BB% wOBAwRC+ BATRUNFLDPOSREP WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
201917 ROKDSL Rockies — 221191 61912 21262 174 319393408801 89355 1210 352 42 — — — — — —
202119 ROKACL Rockies — 171148 471314 16294 95 318399500899 182368 179 392 68 — — — — — —
202220 AFresno Grizzlies — 506453 12424414 39856 188 274339437776 163305 178 340 78 — — — — — —
202321 A+Spokane Indians — 488441 1132266 32708 147 256318374692 118288 147 308 55 — — — — — —
202422 AAHartford Yard Goats — 124115 36202 7150 43 313352383735 70343 126 327 85 — — — — — —
202422 A+Spokane Indians — 385358 1082114 19544 232 302344399743 98343 145 331 66 — — — — — —
202422 INTLEstrellas Orientales — 119105 20804 6251 41 190241381622 190203 215 258 61 — — — — — —
202523 AAHartford Yard Goats — 413370 961702 32631 136 259320322642 62300 158 287 66 — — — — — —
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
201917 ROK MLEDSL Rockies — 221197 40511 15322 174 203266254520 51225 147 231 42 — — — — — —
202119 ROK MLEACL Rockies — 171155 35913 9424 95 226286355641 129269 255 269 68 — — — — — —
202220 A MLEFresno Grizzlies — 506465 11020412 271206 188 237287374661 138280 245 283 78 — — — — — —
202321 A+ MLESpokane Indians — 488452 971855 21968 147 215262310572 95252 204 249 55 — — — — — —
202422 AA MLEHartford Yard Goats — 124117 35202 5190 43 299328368695 68328 154 294 85 — — — — — —
202422 A+ MLESpokane Indians — 385365 921513 12734 232 252283323607 71301 193 266 66 — — — — — —
202523 AA MLEHartford Yard Goats — 413378 951701 24751 136 251298304602 53292 186 266 66 — — — — — —
201917 ROK MLEDSL Rockies — 221197 40511 15322 174 203266254520 51234 147 231 42 — — — — — —
201917 ROK RAWDSL Rockies — 221191 61912 21262 174 319393408801 89355 1210 352 42 — — — — — —
202119 ROK MLEACL Rockies — 171155 35913 9424 95 226286355641 129286 255 269 68 — — — — — —
202119 ROK RAWACL Rockies — 171148 471314 16294 95 318399500899 182368 179 392 68 — — — — — —
202220 A MLEFresno Grizzlies — 506465 11020412 271206 188 237287374661 138288 245 283 78 — — — — — —
202220 A RAWFresno Grizzlies — 506453 12424414 39856 188 274339437776 163305 178 340 78 — — — — — —
202321 A+ MLESpokane Indians — 488452 971855 21968 147 215262310572 95258 204 249 55 — — — — — —
202321 A+ RAWSpokane Indians — 488441 1132266 32708 147 256318374692 118288 147 308 55 — — — — — —
202422 A+ MLE3 teams — 628589 1562116 211135 316 265296334630 70314 183 273 71 — — — — — —
202422 A+ RAW3 teams — 628578 16431110 32945 316 284327393720 109320 155 316 71 — — — — — —
202523 AA MLEHartford Yard Goats — 413378 951701 24751 136 251298304602 53303 186 266 66 — — — — — —
202523 AA RAWHartford Yard Goats — 413370 961702 32631 136 259320322642 62300 158 287 66 — — — — — —
201917 ROK MLEDSL Rockies — 221202 40511 15322 174 198266248514 50225 147 231 42 — — — — — —
202119 ROK MLEACL Rockies — 171156 35913 9424 95 224286353638 128269 255 269 68 — — — — — —
202220 A MLEFresno Grizzlies — 506468 11020412 271206 188 235287372659 137280 245 283 78 — — — — — —
202321 A+ MLESpokane Indians — 488456 971855 21968 147 213262307569 94252 204 249 55 — — — — — —
202422 A+ MLE3 teams — 628597 1562116 211135 316 261296330626 69308 183 273 71 — — — — — —
202523 AA MLEHartford Yard Goats — 413385 951701 24751 136 247298299596 52292 186 266 66 — — — — — —
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons)
202422 A+ MLE3 teams — 628597 1562116 211135 316 261296330626 69308 183 273 71 — — — — — —
202523 AA MLEHartford Yard Goats — 413385 951701 24751 136 247298299596 52292 186 266 66 — — — — — —
▸ 2027 season
▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability)
202725 MLB MLECOL 2% 380356 811412 19732 62 229271292563 64278 195 255 59 -19 +0 +0 +4 +8 -0.1
▸ 2027 — real world (MLB)
202725 MLB CTXCOL 2% 33 1000 010 00 238279307587 69289 330 265 59 -0 +0 +0 +0 +0 -0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
202826 MLB MLECOL 31% 175163 38702 9341 21 232275307582 75279 195 263 64 -8 +0 +0 +2 +4 -0.2
202927 MLB MLECOL 42% 222207 47802 12431 31 231277309586 78279 195 264 65 -9 +0 +0 +2 +5 -0.2
202826 MLB CTXCOL 31% 5451 12201 3100 10 241284324608 83290 196 273 64 -2 +0 +0 +1 +1 -0.0
202927 MLB CTXCOL 42% 9388 21401 5180 10 241286327613 86290 195 275 65 -4 +0 +0 +1 +2 -0.1
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career— A+C — 147139 33602 8280 20 237279324603 86284 195 275 65 -6 +0 +0 +2 +3 -0.1
/ 162G— A+C — 650615 1472709 351240 90 239280327607 88286 195 275 65 -27 +2 +0 +7 +14 -0.5
Career— MLE — 29842756 6521111233 14658629 11039 237282321604 85285 205 264 65 -25 +0 +0 +6 +12 -0.6
/ 162G— MLE — 650600 1422437 321286 248 237282322604 85285 205 264 65 -29 +0 +0 +7 +14 -0.7

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2025 AAHartford Yard Goats · 413 PAwOBA .285 → .266 (−18)K% 15.3% → 18.2%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA15.25%÷1.025×1.220——18.16%
BB% (unintentional) /PA7.51%÷0.940×0.700—×1.0125.66%
HBP% /PA0.24%—×0.850—×1.0120.21%
Singles /BIP25.08%÷1.008×0.970×1.003×1.01224.50%
Doubles /BIP5.54%÷0.913×0.860×1.003×1.0125.29%
Triples /BIP0.00%÷1.150×0.950×1.003×1.0120.00%
Home runs /BIP0.65%÷1.255×0.780—×1.0120.41%

Factors used: league row EL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 151, 1B 102, 2B 83, 3B 130, K 105, BB 88 — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 24.8 → +1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.003.

Result: wOBA .285 → .266; ISO .062 → .055; BABIP .300 → .292. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 A+Spokane Indians · 385 PAwOBA .324 → .266 (−58)K% 14.0% → 19.0%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA14.03%÷0.996×1.350——19.01%
BB% (unintentional) /PA4.94%÷1.106×0.710—×0.9983.16%
HBP% /PA1.04%—×0.810—×0.9980.84%
Singles /BIP26.97%÷0.999×0.910×1.003×0.99824.61%
Doubles /BIP6.91%÷1.098×0.830×1.003×0.9985.23%
Triples /BIP0.33%÷0.907×0.820×1.003×0.9980.30%
Home runs /BIP1.32%÷1.086×0.830—×0.9981.00%

Factors used: level-wide A+ factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 117, 1B 100, 2B 120, 3B 81, K 99, BB 121 — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 22.8 → −0.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.003.

Result: wOBA .324 → .266; ISO .098 → .073; BABIP .343 → .301. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 AAHartford Yard Goats · 124 PAwOBA .321 → .294 (−27)K% 12.1% → 15.0%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA12.10%÷0.987×1.220——14.96%
BB% (unintentional) /PA5.65%÷1.066×0.700—×1.0273.81%
HBP% /PA0.00%—×0.850—×1.0270.00%
Singles /BIP32.00%÷1.041×0.970×1.008×1.02730.89%
Doubles /BIP2.00%÷1.102×0.860×1.008×1.0271.62%
Triples /BIP0.00%÷0.900×0.950×1.008×1.0270.00%
Home runs /BIP2.00%÷0.916×0.780—×1.0271.75%

Factors used: league row EL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 83, 1B 108, 2B 120, 3B 80, K 97, BB 113 — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 24.8 → +2.7% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.008.

Result: wOBA .321 → .294; ISO .070 → .060; BABIP .343 → .328. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 A+Spokane Indians · 488 PAwOBA .303 → .249 (−54)K% 14.3% → 19.7%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA14.34%÷0.983×1.350——19.69%
BB% (unintentional) /PA6.56%÷1.075×0.710—×1.0124.38%
HBP% /PA1.64%—×0.810—×1.0121.34%
Singles /BIP21.29%÷1.019×0.910×0.991×1.01219.08%
Doubles /BIP5.93%÷1.026×0.830×0.991×1.0124.81%
Triples /BIP1.62%÷0.936×0.820×0.991×1.0121.42%
Home runs /BIP1.62%÷1.047×0.830—×1.0121.30%

Factors used: level-wide A+ factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 109, 1B 104, 2B 105, 3B 87, K 97, BB 115 — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 22.8 → +1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.991.

Result: wOBA .303 → .249; ISO .118 → .095; BABIP .288 → .252. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 AFresno Grizzlies · 506 PAwOBA .336 → .283 (−53)K% 16.8% → 23.8%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA16.80%÷0.961×1.360——23.78%
BB% (unintentional) /PA7.71%÷1.011×0.690—×1.0155.34%
HBP% /PA1.19%—×0.780—×1.0150.94%
Singles /BIP22.28%÷0.983×0.920×0.993×1.01521.00%
Doubles /BIP6.52%÷0.974×0.830×0.993×1.0155.60%
Triples /BIP1.09%÷0.937×0.910×0.993×1.0151.06%
Home runs /BIP3.80%÷0.947×0.800—×1.0153.26%

Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 89, 1B 97, 2B 95, 3B 87, K 92, BB 102 — applied at half strength. Age: age 21 vs a level average of 22.0 → +1.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.0 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.993.

Result: wOBA .336 → .283; ISO .163 → .137; BABIP .305 → .280. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2021 ROKACL Rockies · 171 PAwOBA .386 → .269 (−117)K% 17.0% → 24.5%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA16.96%÷0.997×1.440——24.51%
BB% (unintentional) /PA9.36%÷1.061×0.620—×0.9955.44%
HBP% /PA2.34%—×0.720—×0.9951.68%
Singles /BIP24.37%÷1.033×0.820×0.970×0.99518.67%
Doubles /BIP10.92%÷1.009×0.720×0.970×0.9957.52%
Triples /BIP0.84%÷1.150×0.720×0.970×0.9950.51%
Home runs /BIP3.36%÷1.029×0.780—×0.9952.54%

Factors used: level-wide ROK factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 106, 1B 107, 2B 102, 3B 130, K 99, BB 112 — applied at half strength. Age: age 20 vs a level average of 19.5 → −0.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.5 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.970.

Result: wOBA .386 → .269; ISO .182 → .128; BABIP .368 → .269. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2019 DSLDSL Rockies · 221 PAwOBA .348 → .231 (−117)K% 11.8% → 14.4%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA11.76%÷1.000×1.220——14.35%
BB% (unintentional) /PA9.50%÷1.000×0.700—×1.0086.70%
HBP% /PA0.90%—×0.700—×1.0080.64%
Singles /BIP29.70%÷1.000×0.680×0.950×1.00819.33%
Doubles /BIP5.45%÷1.000×0.600×0.950×1.0083.13%
Triples /BIP0.61%÷1.000×0.600×0.950×1.0080.35%
Home runs /BIP1.21%÷1.000×0.470—×1.0080.57%

Factors used: level-wide DSL factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 18 vs a level average of 18.5 → +0.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.5 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.

Result: wOBA .348 → .231; ISO .089 → .050; BABIP .355 → .225. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Not traceable per stint: some stints lack the counting stats the component translation needs. Level-wide factors that apply instead — .