Juan Guerrero — OGILVIE

Juan GuerreroSS Hartford Yard Goats

Age 24 R/R 6'2" / 160 lbs AA HR +30%H +12% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2034

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 320 proj PA

wRC+†52

AVG/OBP/SLG.226 / .264 / .293

PA320

HR2

SB8

K%19

BB%4

ISO68

MLB%2%

Value2026 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit

Tools · ContractCON 50 / POW 30

Toolsscout grade

CONTACT50

scouting grade only

POWER30

scouting grade only

EYE35

scouting grade only

SPEED50

scouting grade only

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2029

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2034

First FA Year 2035

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2029	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.3	$1.0M	+$0.3M
2030	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.3	$0.9M	+$0.3M
2031	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2032	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2033	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2034	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$2M		$2M	+$0.6M

Career Stats + Projections

Viewactual = stats as recorded (prior seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2019	17	ROK	DSL Rockies	—	221	199	48	6	1	2	13	37	2	17	4	241	294	312	606	70	282	17	6	260	57	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	17	ROK	DSL Rockies	—	221	191	61	9	1	2	21	26	2	17	4	319	393	408	801	89	355	12	10	352	128	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	19	ROK	ACL Rockies	—	171	155	34	9	1	3	9	42	4	9	5	219	280	348	628	129	277	25	5	263	59	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	19	ROK	ACL Rockies	—	171	148	47	13	1	4	16	29	4	9	5	318	399	500	899	182	368	17	9	392	158	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	20	A	Fresno Grizzlies	—	506	465	110	20	3	14	27	123	6	18	8	237	287	383	670	146	287	24	5	287	78	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	20	A	Fresno Grizzlies	—	506	453	124	24	4	14	39	85	6	18	8	274	339	437	776	163	305	17	8	340	119	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	21	A+	Spokane Indians	—	488	455	88	15	5	4	18	102	8	14	7	193	237	275	512	81	237	21	4	227	32	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	21	A+	Spokane Indians	—	488	441	113	22	6	6	32	70	8	14	7	256	318	374	692	118	288	14	7	308	94	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	22	A+	3 teams	—	628	592	146	18	1	6	18	119	5	31	6	247	275	311	586	64	295	19	3	252	51	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	22	A+	3 teams	—	628	578	164	31	1	10	32	94	5	31	6	284	327	393	720	109	320	15	5	316	100	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	23	AA	Hartford Yard Goats	—	413	378	91	18	0	1	24	78	1	13	6	241	288	296	584	56	293	19	6	263	59	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	23	AA	Hartford Yard Goats	—	413	370	96	17	0	2	32	63	1	13	6	259	320	322	642	62	300	15	8	287	78	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2026 Season
2026	24	MLB	COL	—	320	301	69	12	1	2	14	61	2	8	3	229	268	296	564	66	276	19	4	253	52	-17	+0	+0	+3	+9	-0.4
▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘPARK-NEUTRAL MLE · ALL-LEVEL PT ⓘ
2027	25	MLB	COL	31%	363	340	79	14	1	4	18	70	2	9	3	232	275	315	590	82	278	19	5	267	62	-16	+1	+0	+4	+10	-0.1
2028	26	MLB	COL	45%	402	375	87	15	1	6	21	78	3	10	3	232	278	325	604	93	279	19	5	274	68	-14	+1	+0	+4	+11	0.2
2029	27	MLB	COL	49%	417	388	91	16	1	7	23	82	3	11	4	235	283	335	618	101	280	20	6	277	70	-14	+1	+0	+4	+12	0.3
2030	28	MLB	COL	52%	423	393	92	16	1	7	24	84	3	10	3	234	283	333	617	99	280	20	6	277	70	-14	+1	-1	+5	+12	0.3
2027	25	MLB	COL	31%	113	105	27	5	0	2	6	22	1	3	1	257	304	362	665	105	298	19	5	280	73	-3	+0	+0	+1	+3	0.1
2028	26	MLB	COL	45%	179	167	43	8	1	3	9	35	1	5	2	257	299	371	671	114	299	20	5	289	79	-4	+0	+0	+2	+5	0.3
2029	27	MLB	COL	49%	205	191	49	9	1	4	11	40	1	5	2	257	300	377	677	120	300	20	5	292	81	-4	+0	+0	+2	+6	0.4
2030	28	MLB	COL	52%	218	202	51	9	1	4	12	43	2	5	2	252	301	366	667	114	300	20	6	292	81	-5	+0	-0	+2	+6	0.4
▸ Career Totals
Career	—			—	715	665	170	31	3	13	38	140	5	18	7	256	301	370	671	114	304	20	5	289	79	-17	+1	-0	+8	+20	1.2
/ 162G	—			—	650	605	155	28	3	12	35	127	5	16	6	256	303	372	675	116	304	20	5	289	79	-15	+1	-0	+7	+18	1.1
Career	—			—	4352	4041	935	159	16	56	209	876	39	150	52	231	276	320	596	89	279	20	5	263	60	-198	+9	-1	+47	+123	-2.0
/ 162G	—			—	650	604	139	24	2	8	31	131	6	22	8	230	275	316	591	86	278	20	5	263	60	-30	+1	-0	+7	+18	-0.3

Historical Stats — Raw (Per Stint)

Actual MLB + MiLB stats as they happened, one row per stint at each level. Use this to see what really got recorded; the table above shows MLB-equivalent translations + projections.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2019	17	ROK	DSL Rockies	—	221	191	61	9	1	2	21	26	2	17	4	319	393	408	801	89	355	12	10	352	128	+7	+2	—	—	+6	1.5
2021	19	ROK	ACL Rockies	—	171	148	47	13	1	4	16	29	4	9	5	318	399	500	899	182	368	17	9	392	158	+11	-0	—	—	+5	1.6
2022	20	A	Fresno Grizzlies	—	506	453	124	24	4	14	39	85	6	18	8	274	339	437	776	163	305	17	8	340	119	+11	+0	—	—	+14	2.6
2023	21	A+	Spokane Indians	—	488	441	113	22	6	6	32	70	8	14	7	256	318	374	692	118	288	14	7	308	94	-4	+0	—	—	+14	1.1
2024	22	AA	Hartford Yard Goats	—	124	115	36	2	0	2	7	15	0	4	3	313	352	383	735	70	343	12	6	327	109	+1	-0	—	—	+4	0.4
2024	22	A+	Spokane Indians	—	385	358	108	21	1	4	19	54	4	23	2	302	344	399	743	98	343	14	5	331	111	+5	+4	—	—	+11	2.0
2024	22	INTL	Estrellas Orientales	—	119	105	20	8	0	4	6	25	1	4	1	190	241	381	622	190	203	21	5	258	56	-6	+0	—	—	+3	-0.2
2025	23	AA	Hartford Yard Goats	—	413	370	96	17	0	2	32	63	1	13	6	259	320	322	642	62	300	15	8	287	78	-10	+0	—	—	+12	0.2

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Top row of each card is career totals; bottom row is per-162-game rates. Pool: 727 completed hitter careers (2000-2024).

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	YRS	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Ronny Cedenolast yr '13 career totals — 9 seasons, 2,783 PA	9	2,783	40	39	246	289	354	+28	+19	5.5	5.6
	/162	664	10	9	246	289	354	+6.7	+4.5	1.3	pk7: 6
#2Yolmer Sánchezlast yr '19 career totals — 6 seasons, 2,438 PA	6	2,438	31	30	244	299	357	+9	+26	5.4	5.4
	/162	664	8	8	244	299	357	+2.4	+7.2	1.5	pk7: 5
#3Adam Engellast yr '22 career totals — 6 seasons, 1,540 PA	6	1,540	30	47	225	280	350	+4	+33	4.2	4.2
#3Adam Engellast yr '22 career totals — 6 seasons, 1,540 PA	/162	664	13	20	225	280	350	+1.8	+14.4	1.8	pk7: 4
#4Einar Díazlast yr '05 career totals — 6 seasons, 1,763 PA	6	1,763	16	10	248	297	342	+5	+12	2.4	2.4
#4Einar Díazlast yr '05 career totals — 6 seasons, 1,763 PA	/162	664	6	4	248	297	342	+1.9	+4.7	0.9	pk7: 2
#5Ryan Goinslast yr '19 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,680 PA	7	1,680	22	6	230	279	335	+9	+21	2.0	2.0
#5Ryan Goinslast yr '19 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,680 PA	/162	664	9	2	230	279	335	+3.7	+8.5	0.8	pk7: 2
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 2 projected seasons	2	722	11	18	235	279	332	+8	+6	0.4	0.4
	/162	664	10	17	235	279	332	+7.1	+5.5	0.3	pk7: 0
#6Alexi Amaristalast yr '17 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,901 PA	7	1,901	21	39	231	275	323	+14	-6	-1.1	-1.1
	/162	664	7	14	231	275	323	+4.9	-2.1	-0.4	pk7: -1

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Juan Guerrero (OGILVIE)	24	50	30	50	35	226/264/293	67	276	2	8	19%	4%	52	-0.8	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Peeter Ramos 2006 · AA	24	49→54	35→40	52→50	45	230/278/286	56	277	4	13	18%	5%	56	-1.3	243/293/320	77	293	7	10	18%	6%	72	-0.2	248/300/324	76	296	7	9	18%	6%	73	-0.1
✕Blake Trahan 2018 · AA	24	46→51	35→30	48→50	45	215/264/276	60	265	3	13	19%	6%	47	-1.9	200/250/263	63	269	4	8	26%	5%	38	-2.6	190/240/244	54	260	4	5	27%	5%	27	-2.5
✕Calten Daal 2018 · AA	24	52→56	36→30	52→50	42	247/289/309	61	319	4	16	23%	5%	66	-0.6	242/275/312	70	326	4	10	26%	4%	60	-1.0	266/284/303	38	356	0	8	25%	2%	56	-0.6
✕Adam Godwin 2007 · A	24	51→53	36→30	51→55	43	239/281/311	72	288	3	18	18%	4%	63	-0.8	237/285/302	65	298	3	23	20%	6%	63	-0.9	239/289/296	57	303	2	26	20%	6%	59	-0.7
✕Alejandro Rivero 2013 · AAA	24	46	36→30	49→55	43	220/262/274	55	259	4	13	17%	4%	46	-2.0	231/278/275	44	270	2	16	15%	4%	53	-1.5	224/280/260	36	256	2	19	13%	6%	47	-0.9
✕Jose Bernardo Lopez 2014 · AAA	24	53	35→30	47→50	41	247/277/300	53	301	2	10	19%	4%	58	-1.2	249/286/325	76	298	5	11	17%	4%	69	-0.4	261/296/333	71	309	4	9	16%	4%	72	-0.1
✕Wilson Soriano 2017 · AA	25	48	34→30	50→55	40	227/253/271	45	268	2	19	16%	3%	40	-2.4	224/257/292	68	279	3	25	20%	4%	47	-1.9	232/254/288	56	287	1	41	19%	3%	42	-1.1
✕Ivan Bellazetin 2011 · AAA	24	53→52	36→40	52→55	42	251/285/319	68	301	2	18	17%	4%	67	-0.5	228/263/291	63	272	3	16	17%	3%	50	-1.7	250/287/337	87	290	8	5	16%	4%	69	-0.2
✕Jose Rosario 2016 · AAA	24	48	38→40	49→50	38	228/264/309	81	289	5	11	23%	3%	56	-1.3	224/253/308	84	296	6	9	26%	3%	51	-1.7	248/264/336	88	319	8	7	24%	1%	59	-0.5
✕Derrik Gibson 2014 · AA	24	45→54	35→40	50→55	44	212/272/274	62	294	3	15	27%	7%	51	-1.7	234/295/309	75	305	4	12	23%	7%	69	-0.4	240/303/308	68	305	3	11	21%	7%	69	-0.3
✕Samar Leyva 2019 · AAA	24	50→55	37→40	45→50	40	237/272/310	73	280	5	11	18%	3%	59	-1.1	232/270/359	127	264	12	15	17%	3%	72	-0.2	230/265/363	132	257	12	17	16%	2%	69	-0.3
✕Wilberto Ortiz 2009 · AA	24	49→53	38→40	48→50	43	233/271/316	83	276	5	12	18%	4%	60	-1.0	227/275/297	70	278	4	8	19%	6%	57	-1.2	222/279/286	64	272	3	5	18%	6%	54	-0.9
✕Jack Reinheimer 2016 · AA	24	50→51	37→40	53→55	43	235/281/311	76	299	4	18	22%	6%	63	-0.8	223/274/292	69	293	4	16	24%	6%	56	-1.3	207/260/287	80	276	7	21	26%	6%	48	-1.1
✕Luis Rivera 2008 · AA	24	49	34→30	47→45	42	228/265/282	54	271	2	8	17%	4%	49	-1.8	224/256/280	56	266	3	5	16%	4%	44	-2.1	230/256/270	40	269	1	2	15%	3%	38	-0.9
✕Gary Cates 2006 · AA	25	50→51	37→30	48→50	47	233/279/305	72	272	4	13	16%	6%	61	-1.0	237/275/306	69	278	4	13	15%	5%	59	-1.1	244/275/300	56	283	3	13	14%	4%	55	-0.6
✕Matt Lipka 2016 · AA	24	44→54	38→45	53→60	39	210/245/288	78	261	5	19	22%	4%	43	-2.2	205/253/299	94	267	7	19	25%	5%	50	-1.8	230/283/343	114	308	11	31	28%	6%	70	-0.2
✕Cristo Arnal 2010 · AA	24	51	35→30	50	47	238/285/295	57	278	3	18	15%	6%	61	-1.0	215/262/266	51	261	3	14	18%	6%	44	-2.1	197/244/225	28	242	1	13	18%	5%	22	-1.6
✕Matt Cline 2010 · A	24	49→57	37→30	49→50	47	230/290/304	73	269	5	11	16%	6%	66	-0.6	228/299/296	68	280	3	9	18%	7%	69	-0.4	221/294/279	58	274	2	7	18%	7%	60	-0.5
✕Daniel Kaczrowski 2011 · AA	24	51→54	37→40	50	46	242/283/316	75	280	4	12	16%	5%	66	-0.6	221/276/286	65	254	4	11	14%	7%	55	-1.4	205/268/246	41	231	2	9	11%	8%	39	-0.9
✕Jose Garcia 2011 · AA	23	47→57	37→40	52→55	43	223/265/294	71	275	5	18	20%	5%	52	-1.6	246/289/319	73	313	6	18	22%	5%	69	-0.4	262/307/326	64	334	6	20	22%	5%	75	-0.0