Juan Guerrero — OGILVIE

Juan GuerreroSS Hartford Yard Goats

Age 24 R/R 6'2" / 160 lbs AA H +10%K -4% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2034 peak 0.4 · 2029

wRC+†54

AVG/OBP/SLG.226 / .266 / .298

PA320

HR3

SB8

K%19

BB%4

MLB%2%

Scouting · now → future

HIT

50→50

PWR

30→30

SPD

50→50

EYE

36↘35

trajectory · 10 yrs

0.4peak

2029

Contract

ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2029

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2034

First FA Year 2035

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2029	Arb-1	$0.8M	+0.4	$2M	+$0.9M
2030	Arb-2	$0.9M	+0.4	$2M	+$0.9M
2031	Arb-3	$0.9M	+0.2	$0.9M	+$0.0M
2032	Ext / FA-deal	$3M	—	—	—
2033	Ext / FA-deal	$0.4M	—	—	—
2034	Ext / FA-deal	$0.6M	—	—	—
Totals		$7M		$1.0M	-$6M

Why some years run red
On long-term deals the salary is locked in regardless of how the player ages. Late years are red whenever projected production drops below the AAV — that's expected, not a sign the deal is bad. The honest scorecard is the Net Surplus over the whole contract, not any single year.

Career Projections (MLE)

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2019	17	ROK	DSL Rockies	221	199	48	6	1	2	13	37	2	17	4	.241	.294	.312	.606	.070	.282	17	6	.260	57	-11	+2	+0	+2	+6	-0.0
2021	19	ROK	ACL Rockies	171	155	34	9	0	3	9	42	4	9	5	.219	.280	.335	.615	.116	.277	25	5	.266	62	-7	-0	+0	+2	+5	-0.1
2022	20	A	Fresno Grizzlies	506	465	108	19	3	13	27	119	6	18	8	.232	.283	.370	.653	.138	.279	24	5	.284	76	-14	+0	+0	+5	+14	0.6
2023	21	A+	Spokane Indians	488	454	92	16	5	5	19	100	8	14	7	.203	.247	.293	.540	.090	.245	20	4	.233	37	-35	+0	+0	+5	+14	-1.6
2024	22	A+	3 teams	628	591	149	19	1	6	19	118	5	31	6	.252	.281	.318	.599	.066	.302	19	3	.259	57	-31	+4	+0	+7	+18	-0.3
2025	23	AA	Hartford Yard Goats	413	379	93	16	0	2	23	79	1	13	6	.245	.290	.303	.594	.058	.297	19	6	.261	58	-20	+0	+0	+4	+12	-0.3
▸ 2026 Season
2026	24	MLB	COL	320	301	69	11	1	3	14	62	2	8	3	.229	.268	.302	.570	.073	.277	19	4	.256	54	-16	+0	+0	+3	+9	-0.4
▸ 2027+ Projections — Projections at projected PA · Park-neutral MLB equivalent · Marcel + aging curve
2027	25	MLB 11%	COL	363	338	79	13	1	5	19	71	3	9	3	.234	.281	.322	.603	.089	.279	20	5	.270	65	-14	+1	+0	+4	+10	0.0
2028	26	MLB 26%	COL	402	374	88	15	2	6	22	80	3	10	3	.235	.283	.334	.617	.099	.281	20	5	.278	71	-13	+1	+0	+4	+11	0.3
2029	27	MLB 44%	COL	417	387	91	15	2	7	24	84	3	10	3	.235	.285	.339	.624	.103	.282	20	6	.280	73	-13	+1	+0	+4	+12	0.4
2030	28	MLB 53%	COL	423	392	92	15	2	7	25	86	3	10	3	.235	.286	.337	.622	.102	.281	20	6	.280	73	-13	+1	-1	+5	+12	0.4
2031	29	MLB 64%	COL	419	388	90	15	1	7	25	86	3	9	3	.232	.284	.330	.614	.098	.281	21	6	.278	71	-14	+1	-1	+4	+12	0.2
2032	30	MLB 73%	COL	413	382	88	15	1	6	25	86	3	8	2	.230	.283	.322	.605	.092	.279	21	6	.275	69	-15	+1	-2	+4	+12	0.0
2033	31	MLB 81%	COL	401	371	84	14	1	6	24	86	3	6	2	.226	.279	.318	.597	.092	.278	21	6	.271	66	-16	+0	-3	+4	+11	-0.2
2034	32	MLB 88%	COL	383	354	79	13	1	5	23	84	3	4	1	.223	.276	.308	.584	.085	.277	22	6	.266	62	-16	+0	-4	+4	+11	-0.5
2035	33	MLB 94%	COL	354	328	73	12	1	5	21	80	2	2	0	.223	.274	.311	.584	.088	.276	23	6	.261	58	-17	+0	-4	+4	+10	-0.7
2036	34	MLB	COL	311	288	63	10	1	4	18	73	2	1	0	.219	.269	.302	.572	.083	.274	23	6	.255	53	-16	+0	-5	+3	+9	-0.9
▸ Career Totals (MLE all levels + projections)
Career	—			6633	6146	1420	233	24	92	350	1373	56	179	59	.231	.279	.322	.600	.091	.280	21	5	.267	62	-281	+12	-20	+71	+188	-3.0
/ 162G	—			650	602	139	23	2	9	34	135	5	18	6	.231	.277	.321	.598	.090	.281	21	5	.267	62	-28	+1	-2	+7	+18	-0.3

Historical Stats — Raw (Per Stint)

Actual MLB + MiLB stats as they happened, one row per stint at each level. Use this to see what really got recorded; the table above shows MLB-equivalent translations + projections.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2019	17	ROK	DSL Rockies	221	191	61	9	1	2	21	26	2	17	4	.319	.393	.408	.801	.089	.355	12	10	.352	128	+7	+2	—	—	+6	1.5
2021	19	ROK	ACL Rockies	171	148	47	13	1	4	16	29	4	9	5	.318	.399	.500	.899	.182	.368	17	9	.392	158	+11	-0	—	—	+5	1.6
2022	20	A	Fresno Grizzlies	506	453	124	24	4	14	39	85	6	18	8	.274	.339	.437	.776	.163	.305	17	8	.340	119	+11	+0	—	—	+14	2.6
2023	21	A+	Spokane Indians	488	441	113	22	6	6	32	70	8	14	7	.256	.318	.374	.692	.118	.288	14	7	.308	94	-4	+0	—	—	+14	1.1
2024	22	AA	Hartford Yard Goats	124	115	36	2	0	2	7	15	0	4	3	.313	.352	.383	.735	.070	.343	12	6	.327	109	+1	-0	—	—	+4	0.4
2024	22	A+	Spokane Indians	385	358	108	21	1	4	19	54	4	23	2	.302	.344	.399	.743	.098	.343	14	5	.331	111	+5	+4	—	—	+11	2.0
2024	22	INTL	Estrellas Orientales	119	105	20	8	0	4	6	25	1	4	1	.190	.241	.381	.622	.190	.203	21	5	.258	56	-6	+0	—	—	+3	-0.2
2025	23	AA	Hartford Yard Goats	413	370	96	17	0	2	32	63	1	13	6	.259	.320	.322	.642	.062	.300	15	8	.287	78	-10	+0	—	—	+12	0.2

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Juan Guerrero (OGILVIE)	24	50	30	50	35	.226/.266/.298	.072	.277	3	8	19%	4%	54	-0.8	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Calten Daal 2018 · AA	24	52→54	35→30	52→50	41	.244/.284/.297	.053	.315	3	16	23%	5%	60	-1.0	.239/.272/.309	.070	.320	4	10	25%	4%	59	-1.1	.259/.275/.298	.039	.342	0	8	24%	2%	51	-0.8
✕Peeter Ramos 2006 · AA	24	49→54	36→40	52→50	45	.229/.277/.287	.058	.276	4	13	18%	5%	56	-1.3	.245/.295/.320	.075	.296	6	10	18%	6%	72	-0.2	.252/.304/.327	.075	.301	7	9	18%	6%	76	+0.0
✕Alejandro Rivero 2013 · AAA	24	47	36→30	49→55	43	.221/.264/.279	.058	.263	5	13	18%	4%	48	-1.9	.231/.278/.274	.043	.272	3	15	15%	4%	53	-1.5	.223/.279/.259	.036	.257	1	19	13%	6%	46	-0.9
✕Blake Trahan 2018 · AA	24	46→50	36→30	48→50	46	.217/.268/.281	.063	.265	3	13	19%	6%	50	-1.7	.206/.257/.269	.063	.272	4	8	24%	6%	43	-2.2	.197/.247/.253	.056	.265	4	5	26%	5%	32	-2.2
✕Samar Leyva 2019 · AAA	24	50→55	38→40	45→50	40	.239/.276/.314	.075	.283	5	11	18%	3%	63	-0.9	.236/.273/.363	.127	.269	11	15	17%	3%	75	-0.0	.237/.272/.374	.137	.266	12	17	16%	2%	76	+0.0
✕Adam Godwin 2007 · A	24	49→52	36→30	51→55	42	.232/.272/.303	.071	.279	3	18	18%	4%	58	-1.2	.234/.281/.299	.065	.293	3	22	20%	5%	60	-1.0	.237/.286/.295	.058	.301	2	26	21%	6%	58	-0.7
✕Ivan Bellazetin 2011 · AAA	24	53→52	36→40	52→55	43	.248/.284/.317	.069	.298	3	18	18%	4%	66	-0.6	.236/.271/.300	.064	.282	3	16	17%	4%	56	-1.3	.252/.289/.337	.085	.294	7	5	16%	4%	70	-0.1
✕Matt Cline 2010 · A	24	48→57	37→30	49→50	46	.227/.283/.298	.071	.262	5	11	15%	5%	62	-0.9	.232/.304/.299	.067	.285	3	9	18%	7%	72	-0.2	.224/.299/.281	.057	.277	2	7	18%	7%	63	-0.4
✕Jack Reinheimer 2016 · AA	24	50→51	37→40	53→55	44	.235/.283/.313	.077	.295	4	18	21%	6%	65	-0.7	.228/.279/.300	.072	.295	4	16	22%	6%	60	-1.0	.223/.277/.287	.064	.289	3	17	23%	6%	54	-1.2
✕Jose Rosario 2016 · AAA	24	47	38→40	48→50	39	.227/.265/.309	.082	.282	5	11	21%	4%	56	-1.3	.227/.256/.310	.083	.296	6	9	25%	3%	53	-1.5	.248/.265/.336	.088	.318	7	7	24%	1%	59	-0.5
✕Jose Bernardo Lopez 2014 · AAA	24	53	34→30	46→50	42	.251/.281/.303	.052	.303	2	10	18%	4%	60	-1.0	.250/.287/.321	.071	.299	5	11	17%	4%	68	-0.5	.260/.294/.330	.070	.307	4	9	16%	4%	70	-0.1
✕Darren Baker 2023 · AA	24	51→55	37→30	49→60	44	.242/.286/.318	.076	.309	4	12	22%	6%	68	-0.5	.246/.294/.307	.061	.319	3	24	22%	6%	68	-0.5	.249/.301/.298	.049	.323	1	32	22%	7%	65	-0.5
✕Wilberto Ortiz 2009 · AA	24	49→52	38→40	48→50	44	.232/.271/.314	.082	.274	5	12	18%	5%	60	-1.0	.226/.273/.297	.071	.274	4	8	18%	5%	56	-1.3	.221/.277/.287	.065	.270	3	5	18%	6%	53	-0.9
✕Derrik Gibson 2014 · AA	24	46→56	35→40	50→55	44	.215/.274/.275	.061	.293	2	16	26%	7%	52	-1.6	.239/.301/.313	.074	.311	4	12	23%	7%	73	-0.1	.249/.312/.317	.069	.316	3	11	20%	7%	75	+0.0
✕Bryson Brigman 2019 · AA	24	52→59	36→40	50	45	.245/.295/.314	.068	.303	3	13	20%	6%	70	-0.3	.238/.293/.316	.078	.300	4	9	21%	7%	70	-0.3	.237/.292/.328	.091	.299	7	11	22%	6%	70	-0.2
✕Jose Duarte 2009 · AA	24	50→56	38→40	53→55	45	.237/.283/.314	.078	.295	5	21	21%	6%	65	-0.7	.227/.282/.315	.088	.285	6	18	21%	7%	66	-0.6	.229/.295/.318	.089	.284	6	14	20%	8%	69	-0.2
✕Matt Williams 2014 · AA	24	46→48	40	49→50	45	.221/.271/.312	.091	.267	7	14	20%	6%	60	-1.0	.217/.282/.289	.072	.278	4	14	22%	8%	59	-1.1	.215/.288/.277	.063	.280	3	15	23%	9%	57	-0.7
✕Jecksson Flores 2018 · A	24	44→54	38→40	50→55	41	.211/.253/.288	.077	.263	5	14	21%	4%	46	-2.0	.228/.272/.317	.089	.282	7	18	21%	5%	62	-0.9	.226/.278/.311	.085	.275	6	17	19%	6%	60	-0.7
✕Adrián Sanchez 2015 · AA	24	45→46	35→45	47→50	40	.215/.249/.273	.057	.265	3	13	20%	3%	40	-2.4	.227/.260/.298	.071	.275	4	10	18%	4%	51	-1.7	.253/.287/.357	.104	.297	8	15	17%	4%	75	+0.0
✕Cristo Arnal 2010 · AA	24	51	36→30	50	47	.238/.284/.296	.058	.278	4	17	16%	6%	61	-1.0	.217/.265/.266	.049	.263	3	15	18%	6%	45	-2.1	.197/.244/.222	.025	.241	1	13	18%	5%	21	-1.7

Contract

Career Projections (MLE) Show advanced cols

Historical Stats — Raw (Per Stint)

Career Path Comps

Career Projections (MLE)