Ike Irish

C Frederick Keys

Age 23 L/R 6'2" / 201 lbs A+ HR +9% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2033

Overview

A+PROSPECTMiLBFA 2034

OGV OFP40OGV rank#140ETA2028MLB%4%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	PA	AVG/OBP/SLG	HR	SB	wRC+	WAR	MLE AVG/OBP/SLG
2025	21	ABAL	81	.230/.296/.297	1	3	35	—	.197/.247/.263
2026	22	A+/INTL2 orgs	395	.288/.395/.520	18	23	107	—	.235/.309/.430
2027PROJMLE	23	MLBBAL	9	.244/.310/.430	0	0	102	0.0
2028PROJ44% MLB	24	MLBBAL	116	.246/.312/.433	5	2	104	0.5
2029PROJ63% MLB	25	MLBBAL	204	.246/.313/.434	8	3	105	0.9

Next 3 projected WAR 1.4Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2033Service0.0First FA2034

2027MiLB2028Pre-Arb$0.8M2029Pre-Arb$0.8M2030Pre-Arb$0.8M2031Arb-1$4M2032Arb-2$6M2033Arb-3$7M

Skills · percentileMiLB Statcast 2026 A+

wRC+87

wOBA85

ISO85

Chase%63

K%62

Speed61

Career WAR0.0 WAR median (P10 -0.1 / P90 20, comp-based) · star 4% · didn't stick 67%

CompsMichael McKenry (age 23) · Stephen Drew (age 23) · Logan O'Hoppe (age 23)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONstats below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+†102

AVG/OBP/SLG.244 / .310 / .430

PA9

HR0

K%22

BB%11

BABIP294

ISO184

MLB%4%

Value2027 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control+$27M ctrl surplus

Contract

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2028

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2033

First FA Year 2034

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2028
2028	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.5	$2M	+$1M
2029	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.9	$3M	+$2M
2030	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+1.1	$7M	+$6M
2031	Arb-1	$4M	+1.2	$7M	+$5M
2032	Arb-2	$6M	+1.1	$6M	+$3M
2033	Arb-3	$7M	+0.9	$2M	+$0.0M (cut)
Totals		$12M		$27M	+$17M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve. Catcher framing: only 2027 Statcast framing is modeled (Baseball Savant server-caches the leaderboard to the current season); prior-year framing is unmodeled — projections for established framers may run 1-3 WAR low.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2025	21	A	Delmarva Shorebirds	—	81	74	17	2	0	1	6	19	1	3	0	230	296	297	594	68	296	23	7	275	35	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	22	A+	Frederick Keys	—	343	290	83	20	1	16	43	75	7	20	10	286	391	528	919	241	332	22	13	400	99	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	22	INTL	Peoria Javelinas	—	52	43	13	1	0	2	8	7	1	3	0	302	423	465	888	163	324	13	15	400	157	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2025	21	A MLE	Delmarva Shorebirds	—	81	76	15	2	0	1	4	26	1	3	0	197	247	263	510	66	280	32	5	220	35	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	22	A+ MLE	Frederick Keys	—	343	307	72	16	1	14	26	98	7	20	10	235	309	430	739	195	284	29	8	314	99	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	21	A MLE	Delmarva Shorebirds	—	81	76	15	2	0	1	4	26	1	3	0	197	247	263	510	66	286	32	5	220	35	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	21	A RAW	Delmarva Shorebirds	—	81	74	17	2	0	1	6	19	1	3	0	230	296	297	594	68	296	23	7	275	35	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	22	A+ MLE	2 teams	—	395	354	82	18	1	16	30	113	8	23	10	232	306	424	730	192	289	29	8	314	99	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	22	A+ RAW	2 teams	—	395	333	96	21	1	18	51	82	8	23	10	288	395	520	915	231	331	21	13	400	99	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	21	A MLE	Delmarva Shorebirds	—	81	76	15	2	0	1	4	26	1	3	0	197	247	263	510	66	280	32	5	220	35	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	22	A+ MLE	2 teams	—	395	354	82	18	1	16	30	113	8	23	10	232	306	424	730	192	284	29	8	314	99	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons)
2025	21	A MLE	Delmarva Shorebirds	—	81	76	15	2	0	1	4	26	1	3	0	197	247	263	510	66	280	32	5	220	35	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	22	A+ MLE	2 teams	—	395	354	82	18	1	16	30	113	8	23	10	232	306	424	730	192	284	29	8	314	99	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2027 season
▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability)
2027	23	MLB MLE	BAL	4%	453	411	99	19	2	17	33	116	6	9	3	239	306	418	724	179	289	26	7	320	102	+1	+1	-1	+8	+10	1.0
▸ 2027 — real world (MLB)
2027	23	MLB CTX	BAL	4%	9	8	1	0	0	0	1	2	0	0	0	244	310	430	740	186	294	22	11	326	102	+0	+0	-0	+0	+0	0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
2028	24	MLB MLE	BAL	44%	262	238	57	11	1	10	19	66	3	5	2	241	308	421	729	180	290	25	7	322	104	+1	+0	-1	+5	+6	1.1
2029	25	MLB MLE	BAL	63%	324	293	71	13	2	12	24	81	4	5	2	242	309	422	731	180	290	25	7	323	105	+2	+0	-1	+6	+7	1.4
2030	26	MLB MLE	BAL	72%	362	326	79	15	2	13	28	90	5	6	2	242	310	421	731	179	290	25	8	323	105	+2	+0	-1	+6	+8	1.6
2031	27	MLB MLE	BAL	74%	377	340	83	16	2	14	29	94	5	5	2	241	309	418	727	177	290	25	8	321	104	+2	+0	-1	+7	+8	1.6
2032	28	MLB MLE	BAL	75%	382	345	84	16	2	14	29	96	5	5	2	239	308	413	720	173	289	25	8	319	102	+1	+0	-2	+7	+8	1.5
2033	29	MLB MLE	BAL	74%	377	341	81	15	2	13	29	95	4	4	2	237	305	406	711	170	287	25	8	315	99	-0	+0	-2	+7	+8	1.3
2034	30	MLB MLE	BAL	73%	369	334	77	15	1	12	28	95	4	4	3	234	301	398	700	165	285	26	8	310	96	-2	-0	-3	+7	+8	1.0
2035	31	MLB MLE	BAL	72%	338	306	70	13	1	11	25	88	4	3	5	229	296	389	685	159	282	26	7	304	92	-3	-1	-4	+6	+7	0.5
2036	32	MLB MLE	BAL	72%	300	272	60	11	1	9	22	79	3	2	19	224	290	376	666	152	278	26	7	296	87	-5	-7	-4	+5	+6	-0.4
2028	24	MLB CTX	BAL	44%	116	104	27	5	1	5	9	29	2	2	1	246	312	433	745	187	295	25	8	328	104	+1	+0	-0	+2	+3	0.5
2029	25	MLB CTX	BAL	63%	204	184	46	9	1	8	15	51	3	3	1	246	313	434	747	187	295	25	7	329	105	+1	+0	-0	+4	+4	0.9
2030	26	MLB CTX	BAL	72%	259	234	57	11	1	10	20	65	3	4	2	246	314	433	746	186	295	25	8	329	105	+1	+0	-1	+5	+6	1.1
2031	27	MLB CTX	BAL	74%	278	252	62	12	1	11	21	69	3	4	2	245	313	429	742	184	294	25	8	327	104	+1	+0	-1	+5	+6	1.2
2032	28	MLB CTX	BAL	75%	286	259	63	12	1	11	22	72	3	4	2	244	312	424	736	180	293	25	8	325	102	+1	+0	-1	+5	+6	1.1
2033	29	MLB CTX	BAL	74%	277	251	61	12	1	10	21	70	3	3	2	241	309	417	726	176	292	25	8	321	99	-0	-0	-2	+5	+6	0.9
2034	30	MLB CTX	BAL	73%	269	244	58	11	1	10	20	69	3	3	2	238	305	409	714	171	290	26	7	316	96	-1	-0	-2	+5	+6	0.7
2035	31	MLB CTX	BAL	72%	245	222	52	10	1	8	18	64	3	2	3	234	300	399	699	165	287	26	7	310	92	-2	-1	-3	+4	+5	0.4
2036	32	MLB CTX	BAL	72%	217	197	45	8	1	7	16	57	2	1	14	228	294	386	679	157	282	26	7	302	87	-3	-5	-3	+4	+5	-0.3
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	2151	1947	471	90	9	80	162	546	25	26	29	242	308	421	729	179	294	25	8	321	98	-2	-6	-12	+38	+47	6.5
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	588	142	27	3	24	49	165	8	8	9	241	309	420	729	179	294	25	8	321	98	-1	-2	-4	+12	+14	2.0
Career	—	MLE		—	3777	3415	805	154	16	133	282	977	49	69	51	236	303	407	710	171	289	26	7	313	98	-2	-8	-18	+59	+72	10.5
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	588	139	27	3	23	49	168	8	12	9	236	304	410	714	173	289	26	8	313	98	-0	-2	-4	+12	+14	2.1

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 A+Frederick Keys · 343 PAwOBA .393 → .314 (−79)K% 21.9% → 28.6%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	21.87%	÷1.000	×1.310	—	—	28.64%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	12.54%	÷1.000	×0.600	—	×0.998	7.51%
HBP% /PA	2.04%	—	×0.770	—	×0.998	1.57%
Singles /BIP	21.40%	÷1.000	×0.870	×1.030	×0.998	19.13%
Doubles /BIP	9.30%	÷1.000	×0.780	×1.030	×0.998	7.46%
Triples /BIP	0.47%	÷1.000	×0.850	×1.030	×0.998	0.41%
Home runs /BIP	7.44%	÷1.000	×0.880	—	×0.998	6.54%

Factors used: league row South Atlantic League. Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 22.8 → −0.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.030.

Result: wOBA .393 → .314; ISO .241 → .205; BABIP .332 → .284. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 ADelmarva Shorebirds · 81 PAwOBA .268 → .220 (−48)K% 23.5% → 32.1%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	23.46%	÷0.993	×1.360	—	—	32.12%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	7.41%	÷1.007	×0.690	—	—	5.08%
HBP% /PA	1.23%	—	×0.780	—	—	0.96%
Singles /BIP	25.45%	÷0.998	×0.920	×1.027	—	24.11%
Doubles /BIP	3.64%	÷0.898	×0.830	×1.027	—	3.45%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷0.904	×0.910	×1.027	—	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	1.82%	÷0.899	×0.800	—	—	1.62%

Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 80, 1B 100, 2B 80, 3B 81, K 99, BB 101 — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 22.0 → +0.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.0 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.027.

Result: wOBA .268 → .220; ISO .068 → .056; BABIP .296 → .280. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Not traceable per stint: some stints lack the counting stats the component translation needs. Level-wide factors that apply instead — .

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	162s	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1John Bucklast yr '14 career totals — 11 seasons, 4,009 PA	6.0	4,009	134	6	234	301	398	+72	+7	16.9	15.7
/162	664	22	1	+11.9	+1.2	2.8	pk7: 14
#2Bob Brenly'81-'89 * career totals — 9 seasons, 2,995 PA	4.5	2,995	91	45	244*	328*	432*	+37	-13	15.0	15.0
/162	664	20	10	+8.1	-2.9	3.3	pk7: 15
#3Jarrod Saltalamacchialast yr '16 career totals — 9 seasons, 3,127 PA	4.7	3,127	110	5	235	308	414	+56	-10	14.1	14.8
/162	664	23	1	+11.9	-2.1	3.0	pk7: 16
#4Welington Castillolast yr '19 career totals — 8 seasons, 2,667 PA	4.0	2,667	97	5	254	313	425	+48	-14	13.3	13.2
/162	664	24	1	+11.9	-3.4	3.3	pk7: 13
#5Rick Wilkins'91-'01 * career totals — 8 seasons, 2,435 PA	3.7	2,435	81	9	235*	324*	416*	+40	+0	12.4	12.7
/162	664	22	2	+11.0	+0.1	3.4	pk7: 13
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 6 projected seasons	3.3	2,160	76	26	237	302	409	+39	-14	9.0	8.7
/162	664	23	8	+11.9	-4.4	2.8	pk7: 8
#6Ed Ott'74-'81 * career totals — 5 seasons, 1,961 PA	3.0	1,961	33	14	254*	309*	395*	+34	+1	6.3	6.3
/162	664	11	5	+11.5	+0.3	2.1	pk7: 6

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Ike Irish (OGILVIE)	23	—	—	—	—	237/303/415	178	289	8	4	26%	7%	102	+0.5	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Michael McKenry 2008 · A	23	46→47	54→55	41→40	49	238/309/421	183	282	21	7	24%	9%	105	+1.7	223/292/377	154	278	17	4	25%	8%	88	+0.5	248/321/426	177	294	23	2	23%	9%	111	+0.8
●Stephen Drew 2006 · AA	23	51→57	56→55	43→45	50	263/328/463	201	308	23	7	22%	8%	122	+2.9	257/308/420	163	296	16	6	18%	7%	103	+1.6	268/323/446	179	301	15	6	16%	7%	116	+2.6
✕Logan O'Hoppe 2023 · MLB	23	46→48	53→55	45	50	238/315/406	168	271	22	7	21%	8%	104	+1.6	238/301/417	179	290	25	5	26%	7%	101	+1.4	230/285/405	175	287	26	2	29%	6%	94	+0.6
✕Dalton Rushing 2024 · A	23	45→42	52→55	48→30	54	226/343/400	175	303	19	4	30%	12%	114	+2.3	233/320/402	169	303	21	3	28%	9%	105	+1.7	235/318/410	176	300	23	1	28%	9%	106	+1.0
✕Max Stassi 2014 · AA	23	44→45	52→55	44→40	40	232/283/398	167	288	20	4	27%	5%	91	+0.6	212/258/336	124	293	14	3	32%	5%	66	-1.1	216/302/377	161	281	21	0	29%	10%	94	+0.4
✕Joey Bart 2020 · AA	23	43	53→55	45→40	38	228/270/395	166	287	21	7	29%	5%	84	+0.2	235/289/374	139	337	16	5	33%	6%	86	+0.3	251/343/392	142	332	17	1	27%	10%	112	+1.0
●Pedro Álvarez 2010 · AA	23	48	55→65	45	43	246/303/432	186	328	23	4	32%	8%	105	+1.7	238/304/424	186	319	23	3	31%	9%	103	+1.6	236/300/460	224	282	33	4	29%	8%	112	+2.0
✕Kellen Kulbacki 2009 · A	23	47→46	56→60	38→30	50	248/319/433	185	284	25	4	22%	8%	112	+2.2	218/274/334	116	262	12	6	21%	7%	72	-0.7	189/233/258	68	230	4	5	19%	5%	35	-0.8
✕Rougned Odor 2017 · MLB	23	50→56	56→60	47→50	42	260/297/457	197	285	24	11	19%	4%	109	+2.0	227/280/417	190	263	25	13	24%	6%	94	+0.9	212/284/409	197	254	26	11	28%	8%	92	+0.5
✕Brett Baty 2024 · MLB	24	50→59	51→50	42→45	45	250/315/406	156	327	20	5	29%	8%	103	+1.6	240/308/395	155	303	20	6	26%	8%	99	+1.2	239/311/392	153	299	20	6	26%	9%	99	+0.9
✕Drew Gilbert 2024 · AA	23	49→50	49→50	49→45	47	248/313/399	151	299	17	12	23%	8%	101	+1.4	225/300/374	149	266	16	8	22%	8%	91	+0.7	217/301/368	151	248	17	6	20%	8%	89	+0.4
✕Connor Norby 2023 · AAA	23	46→51	52→55	49→50	45	236/302/402	166	297	20	12	27%	7%	98	+1.2	247/306/406	159	329	18	11	29%	7%	100	+1.3	247/320/404	157	334	17	14	30%	8%	104	+1.4
✕Colt Keith 2024 · AAA	22	51→53	52→55	48→45	45	254/312/429	175	324	20	5	27%	8%	107	+1.9	259/317/410	151	314	17	6	22%	8%	105	+1.7	260/323/404	144	310	16	6	20%	8%	106	+1.4
●Ryan Lavarnway 2011 · AA	23	46	51→55	44→30	44	232/301/393	161	302	19	2	29%	8%	96	+1.0	237/301/389	152	290	18	2	24%	7%	95	+0.9	237/299/380	143	282	17	1	22%	7%	91	+0.5
●Miguel Montero 2006 · AA	23	51→58	56→55	44→40	43	269/317/459	190	300	25	4	20%	5%	117	+2.6	247/308/405	158	276	19	3	18%	7%	101	+1.4	267/343/423	156	316	17	0	20%	9%	119	+2.2
✕Jace Jung 2024 · AA	23	43→44	52→50	48→40	48	220/300/383	163	290	20	5	30%	9%	93	+0.8	216/304/368	152	282	17	4	28%	11%	91	+0.7	205/299/350	146	260	16	3	27%	11%	84	+0.1
●Luis García Jr. 2023 · MLB	23	53→57	49→60	44→50	42	267/300/423	156	314	16	6	21%	4%	101	+1.4	265/301/408	143	298	15	14	16%	5%	98	+1.2	267/302/451	184	288	23	15	17%	5%	110	+1.8
✕Sergio Pedroza 2007 · A	23	42→46	56→60	38→45	48	221/315/416	195	294	24	3	32%	10%	107	+1.8	229/303/389	160	305	18	7	29%	8%	96	+1.0	227/297/375	148	293	16	7	27%	7%	88	+0.3
●Andy Pages 2024 · AA	23	42→52	54→60	47→50	47	218/307/400	182	287	21	9	30%	9%	100	+1.3	260/319/438	178	314	21	10	23%	7%	112	+2.2	269/326/453	184	315	23	10	22%	6%	121	+2.8
✕Kyle Wilson 2006 · A	23	46	55→60	38→30	38	239/286/424	185	309	24	4	31%	5%	98	+1.2	216/259/333	117	277	12	4	26%	4%	66	-1.1	194/230/280	86	245	7	0	24%	2%	40	-1.4

Ike Irish

Career Stats + Projections

How the minor-league lines were translated

Career Comps

Career Path Comps