Colt Keith — OGILVIE

Colt Keith2B Detroit Tigers

Age 24 L/R 6'2" / 211 lbs MLB HR -8% Svc 2.000 · Ctrl thru 2029

2026 ROS PROJECTION272 act + 300 ros · stats below = ROS only

wRC+†vL 6792vR 102

AVG/OBP/SLG.264 / .323 / .418

PA300

HR9

K%21

BB%7

BABIP309

ISO154

MLB%100%

Value2026 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit option yr━ post-control

Tools · Splits · ContractCON 55 / POW 45

Toolsscout grade · Statcast %ile · 2024-2026

CONTACT55

Whiff%

807.8%

xwOBA

650.326

POWER45

Barrel%

447.4

Avg EV

4688.8

Bat Spd

6172.6

EYE50

Chase%

8624.7%

SPEED55

Sprint

6828.2

Platoon Splits2024-2026 · 1100 PA

vs LHP

vs RHP

Edge

134

966

—

wRC+

107

▶▶R

wOBA

276

325

▶R

ISO

048

147

▶▶R

BABIP

354

312

◀L

26.9%

19.8%

▶▶R

BB%

6.7%

7.9%

▶R

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status Pre-Arb

MLB Debut 2024

Service 2.000 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2029

First FA Year 2030

OPT

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026ROS	Ext	$2M	+0.7	$3M	+$1.0M
2027	Ext	$5M	+2.6	$19M	+$15M
2028	Ext	$5M	+2.6	$18M	+$14M
2029	Ext	$5M	+2.6	$17M	+$13M
Totals		$16M		$57M	+$43M

Options · projected decision
2030	CLUB OPT	$6.0M / $0.0M buyout	EXERCISE
2031	CLUB OPT	$10.0M / $1.0M buyout	EXERCISE
2032	CLUB OPT	$13.0M / $1.0M buyout	EXERCISE
2033	CLUB OPT	$15.0M / $1.0M buyout	EXERCISE

Career Stats + Projections

Viewactual = stats as recorded (prior seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2021	19	A	2 teams	—	257	227	51	6	3	2	26	94	2	4	1	225	310	304	614	79	368	37	10	275	69	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	19	A	2 teams	—	257	215	58	7	4	2	38	66	2	4	1	270	384	367	752	98	376	26	15	344	121	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	20	A+	2 teams	—	296	272	69	19	2	14	20	85	0	7	0	254	305	493	797	239	311	29	7	337	116	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	20	A+	2 teams	—	296	254	79	17	3	12	38	58	0	7	0	311	401	543	944	232	356	20	13	408	170	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	21	AAA	2 teams	—	577	529	134	29	2	24	38	162	4	3	2	253	308	452	760	198	315	28	7	327	108	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	21	AAA	2 teams	—	577	507	155	38	3	27	60	121	4	3	2	306	384	552	936	247	351	21	10	404	168	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	22	MLB	Detroit Tigers	—	556	516	139	16	4	14	36	110	2	7	1	269	319	397	717	128	317	20	6	313	98	-1	+1	+2	+2	+16	2.0
2024	22	MLB	Detroit Tigers	—	556	516	134	15	4	13	36	110	2	7	1	260	310	380	690	120	306	20	6	309	94	-3	+1	+2	+2	+16	1.8
2025	23	MLB	Detroit Tigers	—	468	414	110	23	2	14	48	102	2	1	1	266	345	432	777	167	318	22	10	340	119	+10	-0	-2	+2	+13	2.3
2025	23	MLB	Detroit Tigers	—	468	414	106	22	2	13	48	102	2	1	1	256	336	413	749	157	307	22	10	333	113	+7	-0	-2	+2	+13	2.0
▸ 2026 Season (ACT · ROS-MLE · ROS-CTX · FULL)
YTD	24	MLB	DET	—	272	253	62	9	2	8	15	53	3	4	0	245	295	391	687	146	280	19	6	302	89	-3	+1	-0	+1	+8	0.6
YTD	24	MLB	DET	—	272	253	62	9	2	8	15	53	3	4	0	245	295	391	687	146	280	19	6	305	92	-3	+1	-0	+1	+8	0.7
ROS	24	MLB	DET	100%	300	273	72	11	2	9	22	62	2	3	0	264	323	418	741	154	304	21	7	323	106	+2	+1	-0	+1	+8	1.2
ROS	24	MLB	DET	100%	300	273	69	10	2	8	22	62	2	3	0	253	313	392	705	139	299	21	7	312	97	-1	+1	-0	+1	+8	0.9
FULL	24	MLB	DET	—	572	526	131	19	4	16	37	115	5	7	0	249	305	392	696	143	289	20	6	307	93	-4	+1	-1	+2	+16	1.5
TOT	24	MLB	DET	—	572	526	134	20	4	17	37	115	5	7	0	255	310	405	715	150	295	20	6	313	98	-1	+1	-1	+2	+16	1.8
▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘPARK-NEUTRAL MLE · ALL-LEVEL PT ⓘ
2027	25	MLB	DET	98%	577	525	139	21	4	17	42	118	5	6	1	265	325	417	742	152	307	20	7	328	109	+6	+1	-1	+2	+16	2.5
2028	26	MLB	DET	98%	577	524	139	21	3	18	43	118	5	6	1	265	327	420	747	155	307	20	7	329	110	+6	+1	-1	+2	+16	2.5
2029	27	MLB	DET	98%	572	519	137	21	3	18	43	117	5	6	1	264	326	420	746	156	306	20	8	329	110	+6	+1	-1	+2	+16	2.5
2030	28	MLB	DET	98%	564	512	134	20	3	17	43	116	4	6	1	262	324	412	736	150	306	21	8	328	109	+6	+1	-2	+2	+16	2.3
2031	29	MLB	DET	98%	552	501	131	19	3	17	42	115	4	5	1	261	324	413	737	152	305	21	8	326	107	+5	+1	-2	+2	+16	2.1
2032	30	MLB	DET	98%	540	490	127	19	3	16	41	114	4	5	1	259	321	408	730	149	304	21	8	323	105	+3	+1	-3	+2	+15	1.8
2033	31	MLB	DET	98%	525	476	122	18	3	15	40	112	4	4	0	256	319	401	720	145	301	21	8	318	102	+1	+1	-4	+2	+15	1.5
2034	32	MLB	DET	98%	506	458	114	16	2	14	39	110	4	3	0	249	313	384	698	135	297	22	8	312	97	-2	+1	-4	+2	+14	1.1
2035	33	MLB	DET	98%	476	434	105	14	2	13	36	106	3	2	0	242	304	373	678	131	293	22	8	305	91	-5	+0	-5	+2	+13	0.6
2036	34	MLB	DET	94%	429	391	93	12	2	11	32	98	3	2	0	238	300	363	664	125	286	23	7	295	84	-8	+0	-6	+2	+12	0.1
2037	35	MLB	DET	89%	374	341	78	9	2	9	28	89	2	1	0	229	291	346	637	117	279	24	7	284	76	-10	+0	-6	+1	+11	-0.4
2027	25	MLB	DET	98%	565	515	134	20	4	16	41	115	4	6	1	260	320	408	727	148	302	20	7	316	100	+0	+1	-1	+2	+16	1.8
2028	26	MLB	DET	98%	565	514	133	20	3	17	42	115	4	6	1	259	320	409	728	150	302	20	7	317	101	+1	+1	-1	+2	+16	1.9
2029	27	MLB	DET	98%	561	510	131	20	3	16	42	115	4	6	1	257	318	402	720	145	301	20	7	317	101	+1	+1	-1	+2	+16	1.9
2030	28	MLB	DET	98%	553	502	129	19	3	16	42	114	4	6	1	257	319	402	722	145	301	21	8	316	100	+0	+1	-2	+2	+16	1.7
2031	29	MLB	DET	98%	541	491	127	19	3	16	41	113	4	5	1	259	321	407	728	149	300	21	8	314	99	-1	+1	-2	+2	+15	1.5
2032	30	MLB	DET	98%	529	479	122	18	3	15	41	111	4	5	1	255	319	399	717	144	299	21	8	312	97	-2	+1	-3	+2	+15	1.3
2033	31	MLB	DET	98%	514	466	117	17	3	14	39	110	4	4	0	251	314	391	705	139	296	21	8	307	93	-4	+1	-4	+2	+15	1.0
2034	32	MLB	DET	98%	496	451	111	16	2	13	38	108	4	3	0	246	310	377	687	131	293	22	8	302	89	-6	+1	-4	+2	+14	0.6
2035	33	MLB	DET	98%	466	425	102	14	2	12	35	104	3	2	0	240	302	367	669	127	288	22	8	294	83	-9	+0	-5	+2	+13	0.2
2036	34	MLB	DET	94%	401	365	85	11	2	10	30	92	3	1	0	233	296	356	653	123	282	23	7	285	77	-11	+0	-5	+1	+11	-0.3
2037	35	MLB	DET	89%	333	303	68	8	2	7	25	79	2	1	0	224	288	333	621	109	275	24	8	275	69	-12	+0	-5	+1	+9	-0.7
▸ Career Totals
Career	—			—	6848	6224	1568	229	38	186	522	1450	46	56	8	252	314	391	705	139	299	21	8	309	95	-40	+8	-33	+24	+194	15.6
/ 162G	—			—	650	591	150	22	4	18	50	138	4	5	1	254	317	396	713	142	301	21	8	309	95	-4	+1	-3	+2	+18	1.5
Career	—			—	8146	7402	1894	294	45	242	619	1828	55	71	11	256	318	406	724	150	307	22	8	319	102	+21	+10	-35	+29	+231	26.1
/ 162G	—			—	650	591	151	23	4	19	49	146	4	6	1	255	317	404	721	149	307	22	8	319	102	+2	+1	-3	+2	+18	2.1

Historical Stats — Raw (Per Stint)

Actual MLB + MiLB stats as they happened, one row per stint at each level. Use this to see what really got recorded; the table above shows MLB-equivalent translations + projections.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2021	19	A+	West Michigan Whitecaps	—	76	68	11	1	1	1	8	27	0	0	0	162	250	250	500	88	250	36	11	234	37	-5	+0	—	—	+2	-0.3
2021	19	A	Lakeland Flying Tigers	—	181	147	47	6	3	1	30	39	2	4	1	320	441	422	863	102	422	22	17	390	156	+12	+0	—	—	+5	1.7
2022	20	A+	West Michigan Whitecaps	—	216	193	58	14	3	9	22	42	0	4	0	301	372	544	916	244	343	19	10	397	162	+15	+1	—	—	+6	2.3
2022	20	INTL	Salt River Rafters	—	80	61	21	3	0	3	16	16	0	3	0	344	481	541	1.022	197	400	20	20	435	191	+8	+1	—	—	+2	1.1
2023	21	AAA	Toledo Mud Hens	—	301	261	75	20	1	13	35	58	1	1	1	287	374	521	895	234	320	19	12	387	155	+19	-0	—	—	+9	2.7
2023	21	AA	Erie SeaWolves	—	276	246	80	18	2	14	25	63	3	2	1	325	394	585	980	260	386	23	9	423	182	+26	+0	—	—	+8	3.4
2024	22	MLB	Detroit Tigers	—	556	516	134	15	4	13	36	110	2	7	1	260	310	380	690	120	306	20	6	309	94	-3	+1	+2	+2	+16	1.8
2025	23	MLB	Detroit Tigers	—	468	414	106	22	2	13	48	102	2	1	1	256	336	413	749	157	307	22	10	333	113	+7	-0	-2	+2	+13	2.0
▸ Career Totals (raw MLB only — historical actual)
MLB Career	—			—	1024	930	240	37	6	26	84	212	4	8	2	258	322	395	717	137	307	21	8	320	103	+3	+1	-0	+4	+29	3.7

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Top row of each card is career totals; bottom row is per-162-game rates. Pool: 727 completed hitter careers (2000-2024).

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	YRS	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Aaron Hilllast yr '17 career totals — 13 seasons, 6,217 PA	13	6,217	162	74	266	323	417	+22	+25	27.7	26.1
	/162	664	17	8	266	323	417	+2.4	+2.6	3.0	pk7: 25
#2Jed Lowrielast yr '22 career totals — 13 seasons, 5,188 PA	13	5,188	121	8	257	330	407	+31	+28	25.3	24.5
	/162	664	15	1	257	330	407	+4.0	+3.5	3.2	pk7: 24
#3Mike Moustakaslast yr '23 career totals — 13 seasons, 5,577 PA	13	5,577	215	21	247	307	431	+14	+18	22.8	22.1
	/162	664	26	3	247	307	431	+1.6	+2.1	2.7	pk7: 21
#4Kelly Johnsonlast yr '16 career totals — 11 seasons, 5,139 PA	11	5,139	155	87	251	330	422	+8	-3	22.3	21.3
	/162	664	20	11	251	330	422	+1.0	-0.4	2.9	pk7: 20
#5Eduardo Escobarlast yr '23 career totals — 12 seasons, 5,114 PA	12	5,114	164	23	253	305	430	+29	+16	21.1	21.1
	/162	664	21	3	253	305	430	+3.7	+2.0	2.7	pk7: 21
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 15 projected seasons	15	7,393	210	64	256	315	401	+26	-1	24.8	20.8
	/162	664	19	6	256	315	401	+2.4	-0.1	2.2	pk7: 17
#6Ronnie Belliardlast yr '10 career totals — 11 seasons, 5,105 PA	11	5,105	106	39	271	334	414	+5	+5	21.4	20.2
	/162	664	14	5	271	334	414	+0.6	+0.7	2.8	pk7: 19

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Colt Keith (OGILVIE)	24	55	45	55	50	255/310/405	150	295	17	7	20%	6%	98	+1.8	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
●Brad Miller 2014 · MLB	24	54→56	47→60	50	48	265/320/404	139	314	14	11	20%	7%	105	+2.1	247/311/412	165	295	18	10	22%	8%	103	+1.9	235/318/420	186	282	21	10	24%	10%	106	+1.8
●A.J. Pierzynski 2001 · MLB	24	53→63	48→55	52→40	49	263/323/413	150	295	15	10	17%	7%	109	+2.4	286/326/432	146	319	11	4	14%	4%	115	+2.7	291/337/432	141	309	11	2	9%	4%	112	+2.1
●Ke'Bryan Hayes 2021 · MLB	24	51→55	49→50	53→50	48	254/314/414	160	307	15	11	22%	7%	105	+2.1	255/313/391	136	317	12	15	22%	7%	98	+1.6	257/313/393	137	315	12	16	21%	7%	97	+1.3
●Gavin Lux 2022 · MLB	24	50→60	49→50	50	50	251/320/400	150	310	16	8	24%	9%	105	+2.1	262/333/394	132	327	11	8	22%	9%	108	+2.3	267/342/389	122	338	9	5	22%	10%	108	+1.8
●Lonnie Chisenhall 2014 · MLB	25	49→56	51→55	49→45	44	249/297/414	165	286	18	5	20%	5%	98	+1.6	259/310/402	143	305	14	6	19%	6%	101	+1.8	278/335/444	167	322	15	7	18%	7%	117	+1.4
●Terrence Long 2001 · MLB	25	56→58	50	53→45	51	279/329/442	163	295	17	6	13%	7%	119	+3.1	264/318/409	145	292	14	6	14%	7%	105	+2.1	256/310/394	138	282	14	5	14%	7%	92	+1.2
●Alex Verdugo 2020 · MLB	24	56→58	47→50	48→45	50	279/330/420	141	308	14	8	15%	7%	113	+2.6	276/333/419	143	314	14	7	16%	7%	115	+2.7	263/323/396	133	296	12	4	15%	7%	100	+1.8
●Ian Stewart 2009 · MLB	24	48→52	52→60	49→45	45	242/309/420	178	312	19	8	28%	8%	105	+2.1	223/306/407	184	283	23	8	28%	10%	101	+1.8	207/296/382	176	259	23	8	29%	10%	84	+0.4
●Alec Bohm 2021 · MLB	24	52→56	49→50	44→45	50	261/322/411	150	303	16	6	20%	8%	108	+2.3	259/312/381	122	314	13	6	21%	7%	95	+1.4	270/324/418	148	300	16	4	15%	6%	108	+2.2
●Steven Kwan 2022 · AAA	24	53→62	48→45	49→50	52	261/321/403	142	279	15	9	13%	7%	105	+2.1	279/350/395	116	304	9	15	11%	9%	115	+2.7	281/357/391	110	305	8	16	10%	10%	114	+2.8
✕Cody Asche 2014 · MLB	24	51→55	48→50	51→45	42	254/298/396	143	318	15	10	25%	6%	94	+1.3	242/293/385	143	304	15	5	24%	6%	89	+1.0	233/289/374	141	290	15	2	24%	7%	79	+0.2
●Stephen Drew 2007 · MLB	24	51→57	51→55	47→45	47	258/307/428	170	298	18	6	20%	7%	106	+2.2	258/315/422	164	293	15	6	17%	8%	108	+2.3	272/332/455	183	307	15	6	16%	8%	117	+3.0
●Kelly Johnson 2006 · MLB	24	49→58	52→55	53→50	56	250/333/426	176	287	18	10	20%	11%	116	+2.8	269/350/441	172	317	16	10	19%	11%	127	+3.6	265/340/443	178	310	17	11	19%	10%	121	+3.0
✕Mat Gamel 2009 · AAA	24	53→57	48→50	46→45	43	260/308/414	154	329	14	7	25%	6%	102	+1.9	244/302/397	153	321	17	5	28%	7%	96	+1.5	239/299/391	152	301	19	3	26%	7%	93	+1.0
●Devon Travis 2016 · MLB	25	55→61	48→50	51→50	48	271/324/421	150	309	15	12	18%	7%	111	+2.5	265/303/415	150	310	15	8	19%	5%	101	+1.8	259/294/406	147	297	15	6	18%	4%	93	+0.8
✕Jeff Fiorentino 2007 · MLB	24	47→53	49→50	47→50	47	238/295/376	138	275	18	10	21%	7%	88	+0.9	242/297/364	122	294	13	11	21%	7%	85	+0.7	246/301/366	121	299	12	12	21%	7%	86	+0.6
✕Dustin Ackley 2012 · MLB	24	53→58	45→50	53→50	56	256/334/394	138	303	10	10	18%	10%	108	+2.3	251/317/374	123	295	11	9	18%	9%	96	+1.5	254/311/396	142	287	14	6	17%	7%	97	+1.2
●Luis Valbuena 2010 · MLB	24	51→55	47→60	45→50	49	252/306/391	139	294	13	10	19%	7%	95	+1.4	232/296/355	123	286	12	6	22%	8%	82	+0.5	236/328/425	190	272	22	1	22%	12%	110	+1.9
●Colby Rasmus 2010 · MLB	23	45→55	51→60	50	48	233/296/389	157	268	19	10	21%	8%	92	+1.2	243/315/422	179	295	20	9	24%	9%	108	+2.3	241/308/459	219	314	28	3	32%	8%	113	+2.0
✕Alek Thomas 2023 · MLB	23	48→51	47→50	48→50	46	241/296/385	145	289	14	11	22%	7%	90	+1.0	235/282/369	134	285	13	11	22%	5%	80	+0.4	234/278/362	128	287	13	11	23%	5%	74	-0.0