Colt Keith — OGILVIE

Colt Keith2B Detroit Tigers

Age 24 L/R 6'2" / 211 lbs MLB HR +5%H +3% Svc 2.000S2 · Ctrl thru 2032 peak 2.8 · 2027

wRC+†vL 72109vR 108

AVG/OBP/SLG.256 / .320 / .400

PA578

HR16

K%21

BB%8

MLB%100%

Scouting · now → future

HIT

55→55

PWR

45→45

SPD

55→55

EYE

49↗50

trajectory · 10 yrs

2.7peak

2028

Contract

ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status Pre-Arb SUPER-2

MLB Debut 2024

Service 2.000 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2032

First FA Year 2033

DEF 10%

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	Arb-1	$4M	+2.5	$20M	+$16M
2027	Arb-2	$4M	+2.8	$23M	+$19M
2028	Arb-3	$5M	+2.8	$24M	+$18M
2029	Arb-4	$5M	+2.8	$24M	+$19M
2030	Ext / FA-deal	$10M	+2.6	$23M	+$13M
2031	Ext / FA-deal	$13M	+2.4	$22M	+$9M
2032	Ext / FA-deal	$15M	+2.1	$20M	+$5M
Totals		$57M		$157M	+$100M

Career Projections (MLE)

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2021	19	A	2 teams	257	227	51	6	3	2	26	91	2	4	1	.225	.310	.304	.614	.079	.360	35	10	.277	70	-9	+0	+0	+1	+7	-0.0
2022	20	A+	2 teams	296	271	68	17	3	11	21	77	0	7	0	.251	.305	.458	.762	.207	.305	26	7	.325	107	+2	+1	+0	+1	+8	1.3
2023	21	AAA	2 teams	577	528	134	30	2	23	39	155	4	3	2	.254	.310	.449	.759	.195	.312	27	7	.329	110	+6	-0	+0	+2	+16	2.5
2024	22	MLB	Detroit Tigers	556	516	136	14	4	13	36	110	2	7	1	.264	.314	.382	.696	.118	.311	20	6	.306	92	-5	+1	+2	+2	+16	1.6
2025	23	MLB	Detroit Tigers	468	414	102	21	2	12	48	102	2	1	1	.246	.328	.394	.721	.147	.296	22	10	.319	102	+1	-0	-2	+2	+13	1.4
▸ 2026 Season (actual · ROS · total)
2026	24	MLB	Detroit Tigers	77	73	23	7	0	0	4	15	0	0	0	.315	.351	.411	.762	.096	.397	19	5	.337	116	+1	+0	-0	+0	+2	0.4
ROS	24	MLB	DET	501	456	122	22	2	12	38	106	2	4	1	.268	.327	.404	.730	.136	.321	21	8	.326	107	+4	+0	+0	+2	+14	2.1
TOT	24	MLB	DET	578	529	145	29	2	12	42	121	2	4	1	.274	.330	.405	.734	.130	.333	21	7	.327	109	+6	+0	+0	+2	+16	2.5
▸ 2027+ Projections — Projections at projected PA · Park-neutral MLB equivalent · Marcel + aging curve
2027	25	MLB	DET	583	530	143	26	3	14	46	104	2	5	1	.270	.330	.409	.740	.140	.308	18	8	.329	110	+6	+1	+1	+2	+17	2.7
2028	26	MLB	DET	583	529	143	26	3	15	47	104	2	5	1	.270	.332	.416	.748	.146	.308	18	8	.330	111	+7	+1	+1	+2	+17	2.8
2029	27	MLB	DET	578	524	142	26	3	15	47	103	2	4	1	.271	.333	.418	.751	.147	.308	18	8	.330	111	+7	+0	+1	+2	+16	2.7
2030	28	MLB	DET	570	516	139	25	3	14	47	103	2	3	0	.269	.333	.411	.744	.141	.308	18	8	.329	110	+7	+1	-0	+2	+16	2.6
2031	29	MLB	DET	558	505	134	24	2	14	46	102	2	2	0	.265	.329	.404	.733	.139	.307	18	8	.327	109	+5	+0	-1	+2	+16	2.3
2032	30	MLB	DET	546	494	131	24	2	13	45	102	2	1	0	.265	.329	.401	.730	.136	.306	19	8	.324	106	+4	+0	-2	+2	+15	2.0
2033	31	MLB	DET	531	480	126	23	2	12	44	101	2	0	0	.263	.327	.394	.721	.131	.305	19	8	.320	103	+2	+0	-2	+2	+15	1.7
2034	32	MLB	DET	512	463	119	21	2	11	42	100	2	0	0	.257	.321	.382	.704	.125	.304	20	8	.316	100	-0	+0	-3	+2	+15	1.3
2035	33	MLB	DET	482	438	111	20	2	10	40	98	1	0	0	.253	.317	.377	.694	.123	.303	20	8	.310	96	-2	+0	-4	+2	+14	0.9
2036	34	MLB	DET	435	396	99	17	2	9	35	92	1	0	0	.250	.312	.371	.684	.121	.301	21	8	.304	91	-5	+0	-5	+2	+12	0.5
2037	35	MLB	DET	380	345	83	14	1	7	31	84	1	0	0	.241	.305	.348	.653	.107	.299	22	8	.296	85	-7	+0	-5	+1	+11	0.0
2038	36	MLB	DET	321	292	69	12	1	5	25	75	1	0	0	.236	.299	.336	.634	.099	.297	23	8	.287	78	-8	+0	-6	+1	+9	-0.4
▸ Career Totals (MLE all levels + projections)
Career	—			8734	7924	2052	368	42	212	703	1809	32	46	9	.259	.322	.396	.718	.137	.309	21	8	.318	102	+18	+6	-26	+31	+247	28.2
/ 162G	—			650	590	152	27	3	16	52	135	2	3	1	.258	.320	.395	.715	.137	.307	21	8	.318	102	+1	+0	-2	+2	+18	2.1

Historical Stats — Raw (Per Stint)

Actual MLB + MiLB stats as they happened, one row per stint at each level. Use this to see what really got recorded; the table above shows MLB-equivalent translations + projections.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2021	19	A+	West Michigan Whitecaps	76	68	11	1	1	1	8	27	0	0	0	.162	.250	.250	.500	.088	.250	36	11	.234	37	-5	+0	—	—	+2	-0.3
2021	19	A	Lakeland Flying Tigers	181	147	47	6	3	1	30	39	2	4	1	.320	.441	.422	.863	.102	.422	22	17	.390	156	+12	+0	—	—	+5	1.7
2022	20	A+	West Michigan Whitecaps	216	193	58	14	3	9	22	42	0	4	0	.301	.372	.544	.916	.244	.343	19	10	.397	162	+15	+1	—	—	+6	2.3
2022	20	INTL	Salt River Rafters	80	61	21	3	0	3	16	16	0	3	0	.344	.481	.541	1.022	.197	.400	20	20	.435	191	+8	+1	—	—	+2	1.1
2023	21	AAA	Toledo Mud Hens	301	261	75	20	1	13	35	58	1	1	1	.287	.374	.521	.895	.234	.320	19	12	.387	155	+19	-0	—	—	+9	2.7
2023	21	AA	Erie SeaWolves	276	246	80	18	2	14	25	63	3	2	1	.325	.394	.585	.980	.260	.386	23	9	.423	182	+26	+0	—	—	+8	3.4
2024	22	MLB	Detroit Tigers	556	516	134	15	4	13	36	110	2	7	1	.260	.310	.380	.690	.120	.306	20	6	.309	94	-3	+1	+2	+2	+16	1.8
2025	23	MLB	Detroit Tigers	468	414	106	22	2	13	48	102	2	1	1	.256	.336	.413	.749	.157	.307	22	10	.333	113	+7	-0	-2	+2	+13	2.0
▸ Career Totals (raw MLB only — historical actual)
MLB Career	—			1024	930	240	37	6	26	84	212	4	8	2	.258	.322	.395	.717	.137	.307	21	8	.320	103	+3	+1	-0	+4	+29	3.7

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Colt Keith (OGILVIE)	24	55	45	55	50	.265/.325/.402	.137	.307	14	5	18%	8%	107	+2.2	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
●Stephen Drew 2008 · MLB	25	50→57	49→55	51→45	51	.248/.310/.402	.154	.282	15	7	18%	8%	100	+1.7	.264/.321/.434	.170	.299	15	6	16%	8%	113	+2.6	.269/.330/.445	.176	.304	15	6	16%	8%	113	+2.7
●A.J. Pierzynski 2001 · MLB	24	52→62	49→55	52→40	49	.261/.322/.411	.151	.293	16	10	17%	7%	108	+2.3	.284/.325/.430	.146	.317	11	4	14%	4%	114	+2.7	.291/.337/.432	.141	.309	11	2	9%	4%	112	+2.1
●Alec Bohm 2021 · MLB	24	53→57	49→50	45	49	.265/.324/.415	.150	.307	16	6	19%	8%	110	+2.4	.260/.312/.381	.121	.316	13	6	21%	7%	96	+1.5	.272/.325/.418	.146	.303	15	4	15%	6%	107	+2.1
●Terrence Long 2001 · MLB	25	55→58	50	52→45	52	.278/.328/.441	.163	.294	17	6	13%	7%	118	+3.0	.267/.320/.411	.144	.295	14	6	14%	7%	107	+2.2	.256/.310/.394	.138	.282	14	5	14%	7%	92	+1.2
●Alex Verdugo 2020 · MLB	24	56→58	45→50	48→45	50	.274/.325/.402	.128	.304	12	9	15%	7%	106	+2.2	.280/.336/.424	.144	.319	14	7	16%	7%	117	+2.9	.270/.329/.406	.137	.303	12	4	15%	7%	105	+2.1
●Lonnie Chisenhall 2013 · MLB	24	48→58	48→55	47→45	43	.244/.291/.389	.145	.283	16	4	20%	5%	89	+1.0	.255/.306/.408	.153	.299	16	5	20%	6%	101	+1.8	.255/.309/.399	.144	.300	15	4	20%	6%	96	+1.2
✕Dustin Ackley 2012 · MLB	24	52→57	44→50	53→50	55	.250/.327/.381	.131	.295	9	10	18%	10%	102	+1.9	.249/.316/.372	.123	.293	11	9	18%	9%	95	+1.4	.248/.306/.381	.133	.283	12	6	17%	7%	91	+0.8
●Jon Jay 2009 · AAA	24	54→64	44→45	47→50	47	.265/.316/.384	.119	.305	11	11	17%	6%	98	+1.6	.263/.313/.378	.115	.302	10	14	16%	6%	95	+1.4	.287/.347/.405	.118	.332	9	15	15%	6%	111	+2.1
✕Cody Asche 2014 · MLB	24	52→56	47→50	51→45	42	.255/.299/.395	.140	.318	14	10	24%	6%	94	+1.3	.248/.298/.391	.143	.312	15	5	24%	6%	92	+1.2	.240/.295/.383	.143	.300	15	2	24%	7%	83	+0.4
✕Victor Caratini 2018 · MLB	24	54→57	44→50	47→40	46	.261/.316/.385	.124	.320	10	3	21%	7%	98	+1.6	.253/.318/.384	.131	.308	14	3	21%	8%	99	+1.7	.252/.323/.388	.136	.286	18	1	18%	7%	100	+0.9
●J.P. Crawford 2020 · MLB	25	44→54	45	50	52	.216/.301/.348	.132	.270	11	8	24%	10%	83	+0.6	.250/.328/.363	.113	.302	9	8	19%	9%	98	+1.6	.263/.355/.386	.123	.307	11	2	17%	11%	113	+2.8
✕Travis Buck 2008 · MLB	24	56	47→55	53→45	52	.270/.340/.427	.157	.325	11	10	20%	9%	119	+3.1	.244/.313/.384	.140	.299	13	8	22%	8%	97	+1.5	.229/.297/.355	.126	.282	12	7	22%	7%	81	+0.2
✕Gavin Lux 2022 · MLB	24	50→58	48→50	49→50	50	.247/.315/.392	.145	.307	16	8	24%	9%	100	+1.7	.255/.326/.376	.121	.320	10	8	22%	10%	100	+1.7	.263/.338/.380	.117	.334	8	5	22%	10%	103	+1.6
●Jason Kipnis 2011 · AA	24	52→60	47→55	48→55	43	.255/.312/.395	.140	.321	14	8	25%	6%	100	+1.7	.255/.322/.405	.150	.311	14	18	21%	8%	106	+2.2	.260/.337/.412	.152	.312	14	24	20%	10%	110	+2.5
●Max Kepler 2017 · MLB	24	49→57	48→60	54→50	51	.244/.308/.401	.157	.285	13	10	19%	8%	99	+1.7	.238/.314/.418	.180	.265	20	7	18%	9%	107	+2.2	.234/.319/.433	.200	.248	24	4	17%	10%	108	+2.2
●Brad Miller 2014 · MLB	24	54→56	47→60	50	48	.266/.321/.406	.140	.316	14	11	20%	8%	106	+2.2	.246/.309/.401	.155	.296	16	10	22%	8%	100	+1.7	.236/.320/.415	.179	.287	20	10	24%	10%	103	+1.6
●Steven Kwan 2022 · AAA	24	52→62	45	49→50	51	.254/.310/.380	.126	.276	12	9	13%	7%	95	+1.4	.280/.351/.398	.118	.305	9	15	11%	9%	116	+2.8	.283/.359/.393	.109	.307	8	16	10%	10%	115	+2.9
●LaMonte Wade Jr. 2018 · AA	24	50→54	43→55	50→45	55	.243/.323/.355	.112	.282	10	8	17%	10%	94	+1.3	.227/.308/.333	.106	.268	10	9	18%	9%	82	+0.5	.238/.339/.417	.179	.270	23	4	20%	12%	114	+1.9
●Luis Valbuena 2010 · MLB	24	50→55	46→60	46→50	49	.248/.303/.386	.137	.291	13	10	20%	7%	93	+1.3	.233/.296/.358	.125	.284	12	7	22%	8%	83	+0.6	.236/.329/.431	.194	.271	23	1	22%	12%	109	+1.8
●Jackie Bradley Jr. 2014 · MLB	24	50→56	46→55	48→50	49	.244/.321/.382	.138	.307	12	13	23%	8%	101	+1.8	.234/.304/.371	.137	.299	13	10	25%	8%	91	+1.1	.252/.331/.441	.189	.298	22	8	22%	9%	114	+2.7

Contract

Career Projections (MLE) Show advanced cols

Historical Stats — Raw (Per Stint)

Career Path Comps

Career Projections (MLE)