Colt Keith

3B Detroit Tigers
Age 25 L/R 6'2" / 211 lbs MLB HR -8% Svc 3.000 · Ctrl thru 2029
Overview
MLB40-MANExtFA 2030
YearAgeLvl / TeamPAAVG/OBP/SLGHRSBwRC+WAR
202422MLBDET556.260/.310/.380137971.5
202523MLBDET468.256/.336/.4131311151.8
202624MLBDET423.258/.323/.4061061101.7
2027PROJ25MLBDET408.261/.328/.4101151121.5
2028PROJ98% MLB26MLBDET406.261/.328/.4091151121.5
2029PROJ98% MLB27MLBDET400.260/.327/.4071041111.4
Last 3 seasons WAR 5.0  ·  Next 3 projected WAR 4.5Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.
ContractESTIMATED
Control thru2029Service3.000First FA2030Options4
2027Ext$5M2028Ext$5M2029Ext$5M
Skills · percentileStatcast 2024-2026
xwOBA67
Speed66
Bat Spd61
Avg EV45
Barrel%44
Form.254/.321/.408 ▼ rolling true talent (60d window) · proj .265/.330/.419
CompsMark Teahen (age 25) · Jonathan India (age 25) · Terrence Long (age 25)
2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONstats below = full-season projection
showingPROJ
wRC+†vL 76112vR 126
AVG/OBP/SLG.261 / .328 / .410
PA408
HR11
SB5
K%20
BB%8
BABIP308
ISO152
MLB%100%
Value2027 · WAR
BAT: +5.7 runs (wOBA-derived runs vs avg)+6BATRUN: +1.0 runs (SB/CS + UBR baserunning)+1RUNFLD: -1.6 runs (Defensive runs vs avg)-2FLDPOS: +1.5 runs (Positional adjustment)+1POSREP: +8.8 runs (Replacement-level credit)+9REPTotal WAR: +1.50+1.5WAR
0.01.02.01.51.51.41.227282930313233343536
━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit option yr━ post-control+$24M ctrl surplus
Tools · Recent Form · Splits · ContractCON 55 / POW 45
Toolsscout grade · Statcast %ile · 2024-2026
CONTACT55
xAVG
660.264
POWER45
Barrel%
447.3
Avg EV
4588.8
Bat Spd
6172.6
EYE50
scouting grade only
SPEED55
Sprint
6628.1
Recent Formrolling true talent ⓘ
K%23%▼▼27% over 44 PA (60d) · proj 20%
BB%8%·9% over 44 PA (60d) · proj 8%
ISO.155·.158 over 38 AB (60d) · proj .154
BABIP.312·.280 over 25 BIP (60d) · proj .313
SLASH.254/.321/.408▼proj .265/.330/.419
Platoon Splits2024-2026 · 1100 PA
vs LHP
vs RHP
Edge
PA
134
966
—
wRC+
73
106
▶▶R
wOBA
276
325
▶R
ISO
048
147
▶▶R
BABIP
354
312
◀L
K%
26.9%
19.8%
▶▶R
BB%
6.7%
7.9%
▶R
Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)
Status   Arb-1
MLB Debut   2024
Service   3.000 yrs.days
Team Control Through   2029
First FA Year   2030
OPT
YearStatusSalary Proj WAR Value Surplus
2027Ext$5M+1.5$12M+$7M
2028Ext$5M+1.5$11M+$7M
2029Ext$5M+1.4$10M+$6M
Totals $14M $33M +$20M
Options · projected decision
2030CLUB OPT$6.0M / $0.0M buyoutEXERCISE
2031CLUB OPT$10.0M / $1.0M buyoutEXERCISE
2032CLUB OPT$13.0M / $1.0M buyoutDECLINE
2033CLUB OPT$15.0M / $1.0M buyoutDECLINE

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.
basis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

YearAge LvlTeam MLB% PAAB H2B3BHR BBSOHBP SBCS AVGOBPSLGOPS ISOBABIP K%BB% wOBAwRC+ BATRUNFLDPOSREP WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
202119 A+West Michigan Whitecaps — 7668 11111 8270 00 162250250500 88250 3611 234 0 — — — — — —
202119 ALakeland Flying Tigers — 181147 47631 30392 41 320441422863 102422 2217 390 112 — — — — — —
202220 A+West Michigan Whitecaps — 216193 581439 22420 40 301372544916 244343 1910 397 110 — — — — — —
202220 INTLSalt River Rafters — 8061 21303 16160 30 3444815411.022 197400 2020 435 181 — — — — — —
202321 AAAToledo Mud Hens — 301261 7520113 35581 11 287374521895 234320 1912 387 101 — — — — — —
202321 AAErie SeaWolves — 276246 8018214 25633 21 325394585980 260386 239 423 124 — — — — — —
202422 MLBDetroit Tigers — 556516 13415413 361102 71 260310380690 120306 206 309 97 -2 +1 +2 +2 +12 1.5
202523 MLBDetroit Tigers — 468414 10622213 481022 11 256336413749 157307 2210 333 115 +8 -0 -2 +2 +10 1.8
202624 MLBDetroit Tigers — 423384 9919410 32845 60 258323406729 148305 208 325 110 +5 +1 -0 +2 +9 1.7
▸ Career Totals (raw MLB only — historical actual)
MLB Career— — 14471314 339561036 1162969 142 258322398720 140306 208 321 104 +6 +2 -0 +5 +31 4.5
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
202119 A+ MLEWest Michigan Whitecaps — 7670 9111 6380 00 129197214412 86230 508 168 0 — — — — — —
202119 A MLELakeland Flying Tigers — 181156 45531 21542 41 288380378758 90413 3012 333 112 — — — — — —
202220 A+ MLEWest Michigan Whitecaps — 216199 511328 16560 40 256312462774 206311 267 331 110 — — — — — —
202321 AAA MLEToledo Mud Hens — 301272 6715111 24701 11 246310430740 184279 238 317 101 — — — — — —
202321 AA MLEErie SeaWolves — 276254 7317210 17813 21 287339488828 201371 296 351 124 — — — — — —
202422 MLB MLEDetroit Tigers — 556518 13615414 341102 71 263310388699 125306 206 311 97 -2 +1 +2 +2 +12 1.5
202523 MLB MLEDetroit Tigers — 468415 10923214 471022 11 263341429769 166307 2210 337 115 +8 -0 -2 +2 +10 1.8
202624 MLB MLEDetroit Tigers — 423384 10019410 32845 60 260325409734 148305 208 330 110 +5 +1 -0 +2 +9 1.7
202119 A MLE2 teams — 257226 52632 27922 41 230318310627 80373 3611 284 78 — — — — — —
202119 A RAW2 teams — 257215 58742 38662 41 270384367752 98376 2615 344 78 — — — — — —
202220 A+ MLE2 teams — 296271 6917311 21760 70 255308461769 207309 267 331 110 — — — — — —
202220 A+ RAW2 teams — 296254 7917312 38580 70 311401543944 232356 2013 408 110 — — — — — —
202321 AAA MLE2 teams — 577526 13831221 411514 32 262320449769 186325 267 333 112 — — — — — —
202321 AAA RAW2 teams — 577507 15538327 601214 32 306384552936 247351 2110 404 112 — — — — — —
202422 MLB MLEDetroit Tigers — 556518 13615414 341102 71 263310388699 125308 206 311 97 -2 +1 +2 +2 +12 1.5
202422 MLB RAWDetroit Tigers — 556516 13415413 361102 71 260310380690 120306 206 309 97 -2 +1 +2 +2 +12 1.5
202523 MLB MLEDetroit Tigers — 468415 10923214 471022 11 263341429769 166314 2210 337 115 +8 -0 -2 +2 +10 1.8
202523 MLB RAWDetroit Tigers — 468414 10622213 481022 11 256336413749 157307 2210 333 115 +8 -0 -2 +2 +10 1.8
202624 MLB MLEDetroit Tigers — 423384 10019410 32845 60 260325409734 148308 208 330 110 +5 +1 -0 +2 +9 1.7
202624 MLB RAWDetroit Tigers — 423384 9919410 32845 60 258323406729 148305 208 325 110 +5 +1 -0 +2 +9 1.7
202119 A MLE2 teams — 257226 52632 27922 41 230318310627 80359 3611 284 78 — — — — — —
202220 A+ MLE2 teams — 296273 6917311 21760 70 253308458766 205311 267 331 110 — — — — — —
202321 AAA MLE2 teams — 577527 13831221 411514 32 262320448768 186323 267 333 112 — — — — — —
202422 MLB MLEDetroit Tigers — 556515 13615414 341102 71 264310390701 126306 206 311 97 — — — — — —
202523 MLB MLEDetroit Tigers — 468416 10923214 471022 11 262341428768 166307 2210 337 115 — — — — — —
202624 MLB MLEDetroit Tigers — 423383 10019410 32845 60 261325410735 149305 208 330 110 — — — — — —
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons)
202422 MLB MLEDetroit Tigers — 556515 13615414 341102 71 264310390701 126306 206 311 97 — — — — — —
202523 MLB MLEDetroit Tigers — 468416 10923214 471022 11 262341428768 166307 2210 337 115 — — — — — —
202624 MLB MLEDetroit Tigers — 423383 10019410 32845 60 261325410735 149305 208 330 110 — — — — — —
▸ 2027 season
▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability)
202725 MLB MLEDET 100% 490443 11821413 401004 61 266332419752 154313 208 333 112 +7 +1 -2 +2 +11 1.5
▸ 2027 — real world (MLB)
202725 MLB CTXDET 100% 408368 9717311 34833 51 261328410738 149308 208 328 112 +6 +1 -2 +1 +9 1.5
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
202826 MLB MLEDET 98% 414374 9817311 34853 51 265332419751 154313 218 333 112 +6 +1 -2 +1 +9 1.5
202927 MLB MLEDET 98% 408368 9717311 34843 41 264331416748 152312 218 332 111 +5 +0 -2 +1 +9 1.5
203028 MLB MLEDET 98% 398359 9417310 33833 31 262329412741 149312 218 329 109 +4 +0 -2 +1 +9 1.2
203129 MLB MLEDET 98% 383346 9116310 31813 21 260326405731 145310 218 325 106 +3 +0 -3 +1 +8 1.0
203230 MLB MLEDET 98% 369334 851529 30792 00 256323397719 140308 218 320 103 +1 +0 -4 +1 +8 0.7
203331 MLB MLEDET 98% 351318 801428 28772 00 252317386703 134304 228 314 98 -1 +0 -4 +1 +8 0.4
203432 MLB MLEDET 98% 326295 721227 26732 00 246310372682 126300 228 305 93 -3 +0 -5 +1 +7 0.1
203533 MLB MLEDET 98% 289264 631026 22661 00 238302355657 117293 238 295 86 -5 +0 -5 +1 +6 -0.3
202826 MLB CTXDET 98% 406366 9617311 34833 51 261328409737 148308 208 328 112 +6 +1 -2 +1 +9 1.5
202927 MLB CTXDET 98% 400361 9316310 33823 41 260327407734 147307 208 326 111 +5 +0 -2 +1 +9 1.4
203028 MLB CTXDET 98% 390352 9116310 32813 31 258325402727 144306 218 323 109 +4 +0 -2 +1 +8 1.2
203129 MLB CTXDET 98% 375338 871539 31793 21 255322396718 140305 218 320 106 +3 +0 -3 +1 +8 1.0
203230 MLB CTXDET 98% 362328 811428 29782 00 252318388706 136303 228 315 103 +1 +0 -3 +1 +8 0.7
203331 MLB CTXDET 98% 344311 771328 28752 00 247313377690 130300 228 308 98 -1 +0 -4 +1 +7 0.4
203432 MLB CTXDET 98% 319289 711227 25712 00 241306364670 122295 228 300 93 -3 +0 -5 +1 +7 0.1
203533 MLB CTXDET 98% 283258 611025 22651 00 234298347645 113289 238 290 86 -5 +0 -5 +1 +6 -0.3
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career— A+C — 43263917 99616930104 35091028 286 254320392712 138305 218 317 105 +17 +3 -26 +15 +94 10.5
/ 162G— A+C — 650589 15025516 531374 41 255320396716 141305 218 317 105 +2 +0 -4 +2 +14 1.6
Career— MLE — 59235366 138124641155 474132637 4710 257322405727 148313 228 323 105 +22 +4 -28 +17 +104 12.2
/ 162G— MLE — 650589 15127417 521464 51 256321402723 146312 228 323 105 +3 +1 -4 +2 +14 1.7

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2023 AAAToledo Mud Hens · 301 PAwOBA .381 → .317 (−64)K% 19.3% → 23.2%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA19.27%÷0.995×1.200——23.23%
BB% (unintentional) /PA11.30%÷1.006×0.690—×1.0508.14%
HBP% /PA0.33%—×0.940—×1.0500.33%
Singles /BIP20.20%÷0.965×0.930×0.952×1.05019.47%
Doubles /BIP9.85%÷1.156×0.830×0.952×1.0507.08%
Triples /BIP0.49%÷1.150×0.970×0.952×1.0500.42%
Home runs /BIP6.40%÷0.901×0.700—×1.0505.22%

Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 80, 1B 93, 2B 131, 3B 130, K 99, BB 101 — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 27.2 → +5.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (5.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.952.

Result: wOBA .381 → .317; ISO .234 → .186; BABIP .320 → .279. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 AAErie SeaWolves · 276 PAwOBA .413 → .351 (−62)K% 22.8% → 29.5%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA22.83%÷0.944×1.220——29.52%
BB% (unintentional) /PA8.70%÷1.063×0.700—×1.0425.97%
HBP% /PA1.09%—×0.850—×1.0420.96%
Singles /BIP25.14%÷1.002×0.970×0.987×1.04225.03%
Doubles /BIP9.84%÷0.924×0.860×0.987×1.0429.42%
Triples /BIP1.09%÷1.145×0.950×0.987×1.0420.93%
Home runs /BIP7.65%÷1.055×0.780—×1.0425.89%

Factors used: league row EL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 111, 1B 100, 2B 85, 3B 129, K 89, BB 113 — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 24.8 → +4.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.987.

Result: wOBA .413 → .351; ISO .260 → .207; BABIP .386 → .371. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 A+West Michigan Whitecaps · 216 PAwOBA .388 → .331 (−57)K% 19.4% → 25.8%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA19.44%÷0.956×1.270——25.82%
BB% (unintentional) /PA10.19%÷1.024×0.710—×1.0277.25%
HBP% /PA0.00%—×0.790—×1.0270.00%
Singles /BIP21.19%÷1.031×0.920×0.994×1.02719.30%
Doubles /BIP9.27%÷0.876×0.810×0.994×1.0278.76%
Triples /BIP1.99%÷1.150×0.850×0.994×1.0271.50%
Home runs /BIP5.96%÷0.847×0.800—×1.0275.78%

Factors used: league row Midwest League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 69, 1B 106, 2B 75, 3B 130, K 91, BB 105 — applied at half strength. Age: age 21 vs a level average of 22.8 → +2.7% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.994.

Result: wOBA .388 → .331; ISO .244 → .218; BABIP .343 → .311. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2021 ALakeland Flying Tigers · 181 PAwOBA .385 → .333 (−52)K% 21.5% → 29.7%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA21.55%÷0.988×1.360——29.67%
BB% (unintentional) /PA16.57%÷1.017×0.690—×1.03011.59%
HBP% /PA1.10%—×0.780—×1.0300.89%
Singles /BIP34.26%÷1.002×0.920×1.050×1.03034.01%
Doubles /BIP5.56%÷0.992×0.830×1.050×1.0305.03%
Triples /BIP2.78%÷1.016×0.910×1.050×1.0302.69%
Home runs /BIP0.93%÷0.937×0.800—×1.0300.81%

Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 87, 1B 100, 2B 98, 3B 103, K 98, BB 103 — applied at half strength. Age: age 20 vs a level average of 22.0 → +3.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.0 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.050.

Result: wOBA .385 → .333; ISO .102 → .092; BABIP .422 → .413. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2021 A+West Michigan Whitecaps · 76 PAwOBA .229 → .168 (−61)K% 35.5% → 50.0%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA35.53%÷0.959×1.350——50.00%
BB% (unintentional) /PA10.53%÷1.000×0.710—×1.0427.79%
HBP% /PA0.00%—×0.810—×1.0420.00%
Singles /BIP19.51%÷1.001×0.910×0.984×1.04218.19%
Doubles /BIP2.44%÷0.935×0.830×0.984×1.0422.22%
Triples /BIP2.44%÷1.009×0.820×0.984×1.0422.03%
Home runs /BIP2.44%÷0.841×0.830—×1.0422.51%

Factors used: level-wide A+ factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 68, 1B 100, 2B 87, 3B 102, K 92, BB 100 — applied at half strength. Age: age 20 vs a level average of 22.8 → +4.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.984.

Result: wOBA .229 → .168; ISO .088 → .065; BABIP .250 → .230. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Not traceable per stint: some stints lack the counting stats the component translation needs. Level-wide factors that apply instead — .