Victor Caratini

C Minnesota Twins

Age 33 S/R 6'0" / 225 lbs MLB Svc 9.297 · Ctrl thru 2027

Overview

MLB40-MANExtFA 2028

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	PA	AVG/OBP/SLG	HR	SB	wRC+	WAR
2024	30	MLBHOU	274	.269/.339/.408	8	0	109	2.3
2025	31	MLBHOU	386	.259/.329/.404	12	1	105	1.7
2026	32	MLBMIN	382	.220/.318/.315	7	0	80	0.7
2027PROJ	33	MLBMIN	242	.238/.323/.362	6	1	96	0.9
2028PROJ	34	MLBMIN	169	.228/.313/.341	4	0	88	-0.1

Last 3 seasons WAR 4.6 · Next 2 projected WAR 0.8Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2027Service9.297First FA2028Options2

2027Ext$7M

Skills · percentileStatcast 2024-2026

xwOBA60

Avg EV57

Bat Spd44

Barrel%38

Speed10

Form.223/.297/.329 ▼▼ rolling true talent (60d window) · proj .237/.321/.361

CompsA.J. Ellis (age 33) · John Jaso (age 33) · Humberto Cota (age 33)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONstats below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+†vL 9696vR 96

AVG/OBP/SLG.238 / .323 / .362

PA242

HR6

K%20

BB%8

BABIP277

ISO122

MLB%100%

Value2027 · WAR

trajectory · projected WAR by year

Tools · Recent Form · Splits · ContractCON 55 / POW 45

Toolsscout grade · Statcast %ile · 2024-2026

CONTACT55

xAVG

420.245

POWER45

Barrel%

386.6

Avg EV

5789.6

Bat Spd

4470.8

EYE55

scouting grade only

SPEED30

Sprint

1024.4

Recent Formrolling true talent ⓘ

K%24%▼▼29% over 41 PA (60d) · proj 20%

BB%7%▼2% over 41 PA (60d) · proj 8%

ISO.106▼.027 over 37 AB (60d) · proj .124

BABIP.279·.320 over 25 BIP (60d) · proj .277

SLASH.223/.297/.329▼▼proj .237/.321/.361

Platoon Splits2024-2026 · 748 PA

vs LHP

vs RHP

Edge

166

582

—

wRC+

119

◀◀L

wOBA

345

311

◀L

ISO

150

128

◀L

BABIP

303

282

◀L

22.3%

16.2%

▶▶R

BB%

8.4%

6.7%

◀◀L

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status FA

MLB Debut 2017

Service 9.297 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2027

First FA Year 2028

OPT

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	Ext	$7M	+0.9	$4M	-$3M
Totals		$7M		$4M	-$3M

Options · projected decision
2028	MUTUAL OPT	$7.0M / $0.0M buyout	DECLINE
2029	MUTUAL OPT	$12.0M / $3.5M buyout	DECLINE

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve. Catcher framing: only 2027 Statcast framing is modeled (Baseball Savant server-caches the leaderboard to the current season); prior-year framing is unmodeled — projections for established framers may run 1-3 WAR low.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2013	19	ROK	Danville Braves	—	246	200	58	23	1	1	39	49	5	0	2	290	418	430	848	140	375	20	16	382	78	—	—	—	—	—	—
2014	20	A	Kane County Cougars	—	423	376	104	22	5	5	38	69	4	1	1	277	349	402	751	125	324	16	9	334	74	—	—	—	—	—	—
2015	21	A+	Myrtle Beach Pelicans	—	453	393	101	31	1	4	49	75	5	0	0	257	347	372	718	115	303	17	11	323	76	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	22	AA	Tennessee Smokies	—	480	412	120	25	2	6	54	80	6	2	1	291	381	405	787	114	341	17	11	351	106	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	22	INTL	Mesa Solar Sox	—	75	62	14	3	0	0	10	14	1	0	0	226	342	274	617	48	286	19	13	287	80	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	23	MLB	Chicago Cubs	—	66	59	15	3	0	1	4	13	3	0	0	254	333	356	689	102	311	20	6	316	93	-1	+0	-0	+7	+1	0.8
2017	23	AAA	Iowa Cubs	—	326	292	100	27	3	10	27	48	1	1	0	342	400	558	958	216	375	15	8	412	141	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	24	MLB	Chicago Cubs	—	200	181	42	7	0	2	12	42	4	0	0	232	294	304	598	72	290	21	6	272	69	-7	+0	+0	+7	+4	0.5
2018	24	AAA	Iowa Cubs	—	137	115	36	7	0	4	18	25	2	0	0	313	415	478	893	165	364	18	13	394	109	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	24	INTL	Criollos de Caguas	—	68	49	14	1	0	2	12	5	6	0	0	286	478	429	906	143	279	7	18	414	167	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	25	MLB	Chicago Cubs	—	279	244	65	11	0	11	29	59	3	1	0	266	351	447	798	180	305	21	10	353	126	+9	+0	+3	+7	+6	2.4
2019	25	AAA	Iowa Cubs	—	18	18	5	1	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	278	278	333	611	56	294	6	0	272	44	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	25	A	South Bend Cubs	—	15	12	3	1	0	0	3	3	0	0	0	250	400	333	733	83	333	20	20	346	60	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	25	INTL	Criollos de Caguas	—	55	41	9	2	0	0	12	5	2	0	0	220	418	268	686	49	250	9	22	341	117	—	—	—	—	—	—
2020	26	MLB	Chicago Cubs	—	132	116	28	7	0	1	12	31	4	0	1	241	333	328	661	86	321	23	9	307	89	-2	-0	+2	+2	+3	0.5
2021	27	MLB	San Diego Padres	—	356	313	71	9	0	7	35	82	4	2	0	227	312	323	635	96	281	23	10	290	73	-11	+0	+3	+6	+8	0.6
2022	28	MLB	Milwaukee Brewers	—	314	272	54	12	0	9	31	67	9	0	0	199	301	342	643	143	228	21	10	294	84	-6	+0	+11	+7	+7	1.9
2022	28	INTL	Leones de Ponce	—	54	42	8	2	0	1	9	9	2	0	0	190	358	310	668	119	212	17	17	313	98	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	29	MLB	Milwaukee Brewers	—	226	201	52	4	0	7	19	45	3	1	1	259	332	383	715	124	296	20	8	320	102	+1	-0	+8	+4	+5	1.8
2024	30	MLB	Houston Astros	—	274	245	66	8	1	8	23	53	3	0	1	269	339	408	748	139	310	19	8	333	109	+3	-0	+9	+5	+6	2.3
2025	31	MLB	Houston Astros	—	386	344	89	14	0	12	23	65	13	1	0	259	329	404	733	145	282	17	6	325	105	+2	+0	-1	+7	+8	1.7
2026	32	MLB	Minnesota Twins	—	382	327	72	10	0	7	34	80	13	0	0	220	318	315	633	95	262	21	9	289	80	-9	+0	+0	+7	+8	0.7
▸ Career Totals (raw MLB only — historical actual)
MLB Career	—			—	2615	2302	554	85	1	65	222	537	59	5	3	241	323	363	686	123	283	21	8	309	96	-14	-0	+35	+59	+57	13.9
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2013	19	ROK MLE	Danville Braves	—	246	215	47	17	1	1	24	70	5	0	2	219	311	321	632	102	312	28	10	283	78	—	—	—	—	—	—
2014	20	A MLE	Kane County Cougars	—	423	390	94	20	4	4	24	99	4	1	1	241	292	344	635	103	303	23	6	278	74	—	—	—	—	—	—
2015	21	A+ MLE	Myrtle Beach Pelicans	—	453	410	96	26	1	4	32	104	5	0	0	234	298	332	629	98	294	23	7	280	76	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	22	AA MLE	Tennessee Smokies	—	480	428	121	27	2	5	38	98	6	2	1	283	350	390	740	107	340	20	8	325	106	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	23	MLB MLE	Chicago Cubs	—	66	60	15	3	0	1	3	13	3	0	0	250	318	350	668	100	311	20	5	305	93	-1	+0	-0	+7	+1	0.8
2017	23	AAA MLE	Iowa Cubs	—	326	300	96	23	3	9	19	57	1	1	0	320	362	507	869	187	354	17	6	376	141	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	24	MLB MLE	Chicago Cubs	—	200	181	42	7	0	2	12	42	4	0	0	232	294	304	598	72	290	21	6	271	69	-7	+0	+0	+7	+4	0.5
2018	24	AAA MLE	Iowa Cubs	—	137	121	34	6	0	4	12	32	2	0	0	281	356	430	785	149	327	23	9	329	109	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	25	MLB MLE	Chicago Cubs	—	279	244	65	11	0	11	29	59	3	1	0	266	351	447	798	180	305	21	10	354	126	+9	+0	+3	+7	+6	2.4
2019	25	AAA MLE	Iowa Cubs	—	18	18	5	1	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	278	278	333	611	56	265	6	0	233	44	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	25	A MLE	South Bend Cubs	—	15	13	3	1	0	0	2	4	0	0	0	231	333	308	641	77	285	27	13	257	60	—	—	—	—	—	—
2020	26	MLB MLE	Chicago Cubs	—	132	117	28	7	0	1	11	31	4	0	1	239	326	325	651	85	321	23	8	300	89	-2	-0	+2	+2	+3	0.5
2021	27	MLB MLE	San Diego Padres	—	356	321	72	10	0	7	27	82	4	2	0	224	293	321	613	97	281	23	8	277	73	-11	+0	+3	+6	+8	0.6
2022	28	MLB MLE	Milwaukee Brewers	—	314	273	55	13	0	9	30	67	9	0	0	201	301	348	649	147	228	21	10	293	84	-6	+0	+11	+7	+7	1.9
2023	29	MLB MLE	Milwaukee Brewers	—	226	201	52	4	0	7	19	45	3	1	1	259	332	383	715	124	296	20	8	319	102	+1	-0	+8	+4	+5	1.8
2024	30	MLB MLE	Houston Astros	—	274	246	66	8	1	8	22	53	3	0	1	268	336	407	742	138	310	19	8	329	109	+3	-0	+9	+5	+6	2.3
2025	31	MLB MLE	Houston Astros	—	386	344	88	13	0	12	23	65	13	1	0	256	326	398	725	142	282	17	6	324	105	+2	+0	-1	+7	+8	1.7
2026	32	MLB MLE	Minnesota Twins	—	382	328	72	10	0	7	33	80	13	0	0	220	316	314	630	95	262	21	9	287	80	-9	+0	+0	+7	+8	0.7
2013	19	ROK MLE	Danville Braves	—	246	215	47	17	1	1	24	70	5	0	2	219	311	321	632	102	315	28	10	283	78	—	—	—	—	—	—
2013	19	ROK RAW	Danville Braves	—	246	200	58	23	1	1	39	49	5	0	2	290	418	430	848	140	375	20	16	382	78	—	—	—	—	—	—
2014	20	A MLE	Kane County Cougars	—	423	390	94	20	4	4	24	99	4	1	1	241	292	344	635	103	309	23	6	278	74	—	—	—	—	—	—
2014	20	A RAW	Kane County Cougars	—	423	376	104	22	5	5	38	69	4	1	1	277	349	402	751	125	324	16	9	334	74	—	—	—	—	—	—
2015	21	A+ MLE	Myrtle Beach Pelicans	—	453	410	96	26	1	4	32	104	5	0	0	234	298	332	629	98	299	23	7	280	76	—	—	—	—	—	—
2015	21	A+ RAW	Myrtle Beach Pelicans	—	453	393	101	31	1	4	49	75	5	0	0	257	347	372	718	115	303	17	11	323	76	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	22	AA MLE	2 teams	—	555	494	139	32	2	5	44	114	7	2	1	281	349	385	733	103	349	21	8	325	106	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	22	AA RAW	2 teams	—	555	474	134	28	2	6	64	94	7	2	1	283	376	388	764	105	334	17	12	343	106	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	23	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	392	360	111	26	3	10	22	70	4	1	0	308	355	481	835	172	353	18	6	364	133	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	23	AAA RAW	2 teams	—	392	351	115	30	3	11	31	61	4	1	0	328	389	524	913	197	365	16	8	396	133	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	24	MLB MLE	3 teams	—	405	358	90	15	0	7	29	89	12	0	0	251	328	352	680	101	312	22	7	294	85	-7	+0	+0	+7	+9	0.9
2018	24	MLB RAW	3 teams	—	405	345	92	15	0	8	42	72	12	0	0	267	366	380	746	113	312	18	10	337	85	-7	+0	+0	+7	+9	0.9
2019	25	MLB MLE	4 teams	—	367	323	84	14	0	13	36	76	5	1	0	260	343	424	768	164	300	21	10	342	118	+8	+0	+3	+7	+8	2.6
2019	25	MLB RAW	4 teams	—	367	315	82	15	0	11	44	68	5	1	0	260	360	413	773	152	297	19	12	347	118	+8	+0	+3	+7	+8	2.6
2020	26	MLB MLE	Chicago Cubs	—	132	117	28	7	0	1	11	31	4	0	1	239	326	325	651	85	318	23	8	300	89	-2	-0	+2	+2	+3	0.5
2020	26	MLB RAW	Chicago Cubs	—	132	116	28	7	0	1	12	31	4	0	1	241	333	328	661	86	321	23	9	307	89	-2	-0	+2	+2	+3	0.5
2021	27	MLB MLE	San Diego Padres	—	356	321	72	10	0	7	27	82	4	2	0	224	293	321	613	97	275	23	8	277	73	-11	+0	+3	+6	+8	0.6
2021	27	MLB RAW	San Diego Padres	—	356	313	71	9	0	7	35	82	4	2	0	227	312	323	635	96	281	23	10	290	73	-11	+0	+3	+6	+8	0.6
2022	28	MLB MLE	2 teams	—	368	319	64	15	0	10	35	79	11	0	0	201	301	342	643	141	233	21	10	293	84	-7	+0	+11	+7	+8	1.9
2022	28	MLB RAW	2 teams	—	368	314	62	14	0	10	40	76	11	0	0	197	310	338	647	140	226	21	11	297	84	-7	+0	+11	+7	+8	1.9
2023	29	MLB MLE	Milwaukee Brewers	—	226	201	52	4	0	7	19	45	3	1	1	259	332	383	715	124	296	20	8	319	102	+1	-0	+8	+4	+5	1.8
2023	29	MLB RAW	Milwaukee Brewers	—	226	201	52	4	0	7	19	45	3	1	1	259	332	383	715	124	296	20	8	320	102	+1	-0	+8	+4	+5	1.8
2024	30	MLB MLE	Houston Astros	—	274	246	66	8	1	8	22	53	3	0	1	268	336	407	742	138	309	19	8	329	109	+3	-0	+9	+5	+6	2.3
2024	30	MLB RAW	Houston Astros	—	274	245	66	8	1	8	23	53	3	0	1	269	339	408	748	139	310	19	8	333	109	+3	-0	+9	+5	+6	2.3
2025	31	MLB MLE	Houston Astros	—	386	344	88	13	0	12	23	65	13	1	0	256	326	398	725	142	278	17	6	324	105	+2	+0	-1	+7	+8	1.7
2025	31	MLB RAW	Houston Astros	—	386	344	89	14	0	12	23	65	13	1	0	259	329	404	733	145	282	17	6	325	105	+2	+0	-1	+7	+8	1.7
2026	32	MLB MLE	Minnesota Twins	—	382	328	72	10	0	7	33	80	13	0	0	220	316	314	630	95	261	21	9	287	80	-9	+0	+0	+7	+8	0.7
2026	32	MLB RAW	Minnesota Twins	—	382	327	72	10	0	7	34	80	13	0	0	220	318	315	633	95	262	21	9	289	80	-9	+0	+0	+7	+8	0.7
2013	19	ROK MLE	Danville Braves	—	246	215	47	17	1	1	24	70	5	0	2	219	311	321	632	102	312	28	10	283	78	—	—	—	—	—	—
2014	20	A MLE	Kane County Cougars	—	423	392	94	20	4	4	24	99	4	1	1	240	292	342	634	102	303	23	6	278	74	—	—	—	—	—	—
2015	21	A+ MLE	Myrtle Beach Pelicans	—	453	413	96	26	1	4	32	104	5	0	0	232	298	329	627	97	294	23	7	280	76	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	22	AA MLE	2 teams	—	555	499	139	32	2	5	44	114	7	2	1	279	349	381	729	102	340	21	8	325	106	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	23	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	392	363	111	26	3	10	22	70	4	1	0	306	355	477	832	171	347	18	6	364	133	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	24	MLB MLE	3 teams	—	405	361	90	15	0	7	29	89	12	0	0	249	328	349	677	100	305	22	7	294	85	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	25	MLB MLE	4 teams	—	367	323	84	14	0	13	36	76	5	1	0	260	343	424	768	164	302	21	10	342	118	—	—	—	—	—	—
2020	26	MLB MLE	Chicago Cubs	—	132	116	28	7	0	1	11	31	4	0	1	241	326	328	653	86	321	23	8	300	89	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	27	MLB MLE	San Diego Padres	—	356	322	72	10	0	7	27	82	4	2	0	224	293	320	612	96	281	23	8	277	73	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	28	MLB MLE	2 teams	—	368	319	64	15	0	10	35	79	11	0	0	201	301	342	643	141	228	21	10	293	84	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	29	MLB MLE	Milwaukee Brewers	—	226	202	52	4	0	7	19	45	3	1	1	257	332	381	713	124	296	20	8	319	102	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	30	MLB MLE	Houston Astros	—	274	247	66	8	1	8	22	53	3	0	1	267	336	405	741	138	310	19	8	329	109	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	31	MLB MLE	Houston Astros	—	386	347	88	13	0	12	23	65	13	1	0	254	326	395	721	141	282	17	6	324	105	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	32	MLB MLE	Minnesota Twins	—	382	333	72	10	0	7	33	80	13	0	0	216	316	309	625	93	262	21	9	287	80	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons)
2024	30	MLB MLE	Houston Astros	—	274	247	66	8	1	8	22	53	3	0	1	267	336	405	741	138	310	19	8	329	109	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	31	MLB MLE	Houston Astros	—	386	347	88	13	0	12	23	65	13	1	0	254	326	395	721	141	282	17	6	324	105	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	32	MLB MLE	Minnesota Twins	—	382	333	72	10	0	7	33	80	13	0	0	216	316	309	625	93	262	21	9	287	80	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2027 season
▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability)
2027	33	MLB MLE	MIN	100%	354	311	74	12	0	9	29	70	11	1	1	237	323	362	685	124	277	20	8	310	96	-2	-0	-0	+6	+8	0.9
▸ 2027 — real world (MLB)
2027	33	MLB CTX	MIN	100%	242	213	50	8	0	6	20	48	7	1	0	238	323	362	686	125	277	20	8	311	96	-1	+0	-0	+4	+5	0.9
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
2028	34	MLB MLE	MIN	100%	169	149	34	5	0	4	13	35	5	0	0	228	313	341	653	113	269	21	8	298	88	-2	+0	-5	+3	+4	-0.1
2028	34	MLB CTX	MIN	100%	169	149	34	5	0	4	13	35	5	0	0	228	313	341	654	114	269	21	8	298	88	-2	+0	-5	+3	+4	-0.1
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	2784	2451	588	90	1	69	235	572	64	5	3	240	323	362	684	122	282	21	8	309	94	-16	-0	+30	+62	+60	13.8
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	572	137	21	0	16	55	134	15	1	1	240	322	360	683	121	282	21	8	309	94	-4	-0	+7	+14	+14	3.2
Career	—	MLE		—	5376	4788	1187	230	12	106	414	1140	105	10	7	248	321	367	689	119	300	21	8	307	94	-18	+0	+30	+66	+66	14.7
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	579	143	28	1	13	50	138	13	1	1	247	321	366	687	119	299	21	8	307	94	-4	+0	+6	+14	+14	3.1

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2019 AAAIowa Cubs · 18 PAwOBA .265 → .233 (−32)K% 5.6% → 7.0%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	5.56%	÷1.025	×1.290	—	—	6.99%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	0.00%	÷0.968	×0.710	—	×1.018	0.00%
HBP% /PA	0.00%	—	×0.980	—	×1.018	0.00%
Singles /BIP	23.53%	÷0.993	×0.900	—	×1.018	21.71%
Doubles /BIP	5.88%	÷1.014	×0.810	—	×1.018	4.78%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷1.029	×0.810	—	×1.018	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	0.00%	÷1.050	×0.780	—	×1.018	0.00%

Factors used: league row PCL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 110, 1B 99, 2B 103, 3B 106, K 105, BB 94 — applied at half strength. Age: age 26 vs a level average of 27.2 → +1.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.2 yr younger than average).

Result: wOBA .265 → .233; ISO .056 → .044; BABIP .294 → .265. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2019 ASouth Bend Cubs · 15 PAwOBA .338 → .257 (−81)K% 20.0% → 28.1%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	20.00%	÷0.968	×1.360	—	—	28.11%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	20.00%	÷0.994	×0.690	—	×0.960	13.33%
HBP% /PA	0.00%	—	×0.780	—	×0.960	0.00%
Singles /BIP	22.22%	÷0.987	×0.920	—	×0.960	19.88%
Doubles /BIP	11.11%	÷1.026	×0.830	—	×0.960	8.63%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷1.150	×0.910	—	×0.960	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	0.00%	÷0.914	×0.800	—	×0.960	0.00%

Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 83, 1B 97, 2B 105, 3B 130, K 94, BB 99 — applied at half strength. Age: age 26 vs a level average of 22.0 → −4.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (4.0 yr older than average).

Result: wOBA .338 → .257; ISO .083 → .063; BABIP .333 → .285. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2018 AAAIowa Cubs · 137 PAwOBA .390 → .329 (−61)K% 18.2% → 23.7%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	18.25%	÷0.993	×1.290	—	—	23.71%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	13.14%	÷1.116	×0.710	—	×1.033	8.64%
HBP% /PA	1.46%	—	×0.980	—	×1.033	1.48%
Singles /BIP	27.78%	÷1.033	×0.900	×1.038	×1.033	25.95%
Doubles /BIP	7.78%	÷1.091	×0.810	×1.038	×1.033	6.19%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷1.024	×0.810	×1.038	×1.033	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	4.44%	÷0.919	×0.780	—	×1.033	3.90%

Factors used: league row PCL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 84, 1B 107, 2B 118, 3B 105, K 99, BB 123 — applied at half strength. Age: age 25 vs a level average of 27.2 → +3.3% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.038.

Result: wOBA .390 → .329; ISO .165 → .141; BABIP .364 → .327. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2017 AAAIowa Cubs · 326 PAwOBA .405 → .376 (−29)K% 14.7% → 17.5%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	14.72%	÷1.083	×1.290	—	—	17.54%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	7.36%	÷0.965	×0.710	—	×1.048	5.67%
HBP% /PA	0.31%	—	×0.980	—	×1.048	0.32%
Singles /BIP	24.59%	÷0.991	×0.900	×1.050	×1.048	24.57%
Doubles /BIP	11.07%	÷1.056	×0.810	×1.050	×1.048	9.34%
Triples /BIP	1.23%	÷1.042	×0.810	×1.050	×1.048	1.05%
Home runs /BIP	4.10%	÷0.899	×0.780	—	×1.048	3.73%

Factors used: league row PCL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 80, 1B 98, 2B 111, 3B 108, K 117, BB 93 — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 27.2 → +4.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.050.

Result: wOBA .405 → .376; ISO .216 → .193; BABIP .375 → .354. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2016 AATennessee Smokies · 480 PAwOBA .348 → .325 (−23)K% 16.7% → 20.5%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	16.67%	÷0.992	×1.220	—	—	20.51%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	11.04%	÷0.982	×0.680	—	×1.027	7.86%
HBP% /PA	1.25%	—	×0.840	—	×1.027	1.08%
Singles /BIP	26.20%	÷1.013	×0.920	×1.050	×1.027	25.66%
Doubles /BIP	7.53%	÷0.918	×0.910	×1.050	×1.027	8.05%
Triples /BIP	0.60%	÷0.900	×0.880	×1.050	×1.027	0.64%
Home runs /BIP	1.81%	÷1.059	×0.800	—	×1.027	1.40%

Factors used: league row SL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 112, 1B 103, 2B 84, 3B 80, K 98, BB 96 — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 24.8 → +2.7% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.050.

Result: wOBA .348 → .325; ISO .114 → .111; BABIP .341 → .340. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2015 A+Myrtle Beach Pelicans · 453 PAwOBA .319 → .280 (−39)K% 16.6% → 22.9%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	16.56%	÷1.025	×1.420	—	—	22.93%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	10.60%	÷0.960	×0.630	—	×1.012	7.04%
HBP% /PA	1.10%	—	×0.860	—	×1.012	0.96%
Singles /BIP	20.44%	÷0.977	×0.940	×1.049	×1.012	20.88%
Doubles /BIP	9.75%	÷1.015	×0.830	×1.049	×1.012	8.46%
Triples /BIP	0.31%	÷1.138	×0.800	×1.049	×1.012	0.23%
Home runs /BIP	1.26%	÷0.888	×0.900	—	×1.012	1.29%

Factors used: league row CAR. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 78, 1B 95, 2B 103, 3B 128, K 105, BB 92 — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 22.8 → +1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.049.

Result: wOBA .319 → .280; ISO .115 → .102; BABIP .303 → .294. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2014 AKane County Cougars · 423 PAwOBA .327 → .278 (−49)K% 16.3% → 23.3%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	16.31%	÷0.952	×1.360	—	—	23.29%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	8.51%	÷1.058	×0.690	—	×1.015	5.63%
HBP% /PA	0.95%	—	×0.780	—	×1.015	0.75%
Singles /BIP	23.45%	÷1.029	×0.920	×1.037	×1.015	22.07%
Doubles /BIP	7.17%	÷0.914	×0.830	×1.037	×1.015	6.85%
Triples /BIP	1.63%	÷1.144	×0.910	×1.037	×1.015	1.36%
Home runs /BIP	1.63%	÷1.029	×0.800	—	×1.015	1.28%

Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 106, 1B 106, 2B 83, 3B 129, K 90, BB 112 — applied at half strength. Age: age 21 vs a level average of 22.0 → +1.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.0 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.037.

Result: wOBA .327 → .278; ISO .125 → .106; BABIP .324 → .303. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2013 ROKDanville Braves · 246 PAwOBA .375 → .283 (−91)K% 19.9% → 28.3%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	19.92%	÷1.000	×1.420	—	—	28.28%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	15.45%	÷1.000	×0.640	—	×0.995	9.84%
HBP% /PA	2.03%	—	×0.740	—	×0.995	1.50%
Singles /BIP	21.85%	÷1.000	×0.840	×1.048	×0.995	19.15%
Doubles /BIP	15.23%	÷1.000	×0.740	×1.048	×0.995	11.76%
Triples /BIP	0.66%	÷1.000	×0.740	×1.048	×0.995	0.51%
Home runs /BIP	0.66%	÷1.000	×0.800	—	×0.995	0.53%

Factors used: level-wide ROK factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 20 vs a level average of 19.5 → −0.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.5 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.048.

Result: wOBA .375 → .283; ISO .140 → .107; BABIP .375 → .312. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Not traceable per stint: some stints lack the counting stats the component translation needs. Level-wide factors that apply instead — .

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	162s	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Tucker Barnhartlast yr '24 career totals — 11 seasons, 3,088 PA	4.7	3,088	53	8	241	318	351	+55	+57	16.5	16.1
/162	664	11	2	+11.9	+12.3	3.6	pk7: 16
#2Omar Narváezlast yr '24 career totals — 9 seasons, 2,298 PA	3.5	2,298	53	0	251	334	374	+41	+15	12.6	12.9
/162	664	15	0	+11.9	+4.3	3.6	pk7: 13
#3Josh Bardlast yr '11 career totals — 9 seasons, 1,958 PA	2.9	1,958	38	1	252	318	381	+33	+24	10.4	10.4
/162	664	13	0	+11.1	+8.0	3.5	pk7: 11
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 12 projected seasons	4.6	3,026	75	6	240	319	362	+54	+40	11.5	10.4
/162	664	16	1	+11.9	+8.8	2.5	pk7: 9
#4Andy Etchebarren'62-'78 * career totals — 12 seasons, 2,934 PA	4.4	2,934	49	13	242*	313*	383*	+52	+0	11.3	10.2
/162	664	11	3	+11.9	+0.0	2.6	pk7: 9
#5Dave Valle'84-'96 * career totals — 12 seasons, 3,146 PA	4.7	3,146	77	5	234*	311*	390*	+50	-1	10.4	10.1
/162	664	16	1	+10.6	-0.2	2.2	pk7: 10
#6Jim Essian'73-'84 * career totals — 9 seasons, 2,146 PA	3.2	2,146	33	9	239*	326*	368*	+34	-1	8.0	7.9
/162	664	10	3	+10.5	-0.4	2.5	pk7: 8

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Victor Caratini (OGILVIE)	33	55	45	30	55	235/321/358	123	277	6	1	20%	8%	96	+0.4	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕A.J. Ellis 2014 · MLB	33	50→54	46→45	36→40	56	247/333/376	129	288	13	2	18%	10%	103	+1.6	223/319/337	114	259	11	3	17%	12%	90	+0.6	220/313/354	134	245	15	2	17%	10%	94	+0.3
✕John Jaso 2017 · MLB	33	54→57	48→50	36→45	56	266/347/421	155	308	14	3	18%	10%	118	+2.7	241/333/415	174	283	18	5	21%	11%	113	+2.3	209/322/404	195	238	21	2	22%	13%	107	+0.9
✕Humberto Cota 2012 · AAA	33	53	44→50	35→30	51	256/322/371	115	304	12	2	19%	8%	98	+1.2	234/297/343	109	296	12	5	24%	8%	82	+0.0	199/266/298	99	250	13	1	25%	7%	59	-0.7
✕Edgar Gonzalez 2011 · MLB	33	48→56	48→45	38→50	48	242/306/381	139	289	15	6	22%	8%	95	+0.9	244/292/353	109	288	11	13	19%	6%	82	-0.0	245/288/341	96	292	10	15	19%	5%	74	-0.3
✕Jose Offerman 2001 · MLB	32	52→55	44→45	31→50	63	252/347/366	114	278	11	3	14%	13%	106	+1.8	251/332/363	112	285	10	8	15%	11%	99	+1.3	251/334/360	109	287	9	8	15%	11%	100	+0.8
✕Luis Antonio Rodriguez 2012 · MLB	32	47→50	46→45	38→45	56	230/301/363	133	241	14	6	12%	9%	88	+0.5	224/284/343	119	243	12	6	14%	7%	78	-0.3	225/280/330	106	244	11	4	13%	6%	70	-0.5
✕Dave Berg 2004 · MLB	33	52→56	44→45	38→40	48	253/305/375	122	289	10	3	16%	6%	92	+0.7	246/298/341	95	288	8	3	17%	6%	82	-0.0	248/302/321	73	293	5	1	16%	6%	79	-0.1
✕Andrés Blanco 2017 · MLB	33	52→48	47→50	41→50	48	256/319/411	154	299	12	7	18%	7%	106	+1.8	220/290/352	132	263	14	7	21%	7%	82	+0.0	197/271/320	123	236	15	5	23%	7%	66	-0.7
✕Neil Walker 2019 · MLB	33	48→57	50→55	41→45	55	246/327/401	155	280	19	2	20%	10%	107	+1.9	250/325/391	141	305	14	6	21%	10%	103	+1.6	269/349/411	142	326	13	5	20%	11%	118	+1.7
✕Austin Nola 2023 · MLB	33	53→52	42→45	43→45	53	254/326/358	105	288	9	4	15%	8%	97	+1.1	205/275/292	87	252	8	4	21%	8%	63	-1.4	171/239/235	64	217	5	0	23%	7%	35	-1.0
✕Elias Díaz 2024 · MLB	33	48→58	48→50	44→45	47	242/296/382	140	286	16	2	21%	7%	91	+0.6	241/291/373	132	295	15	2	23%	6%	87	+0.4	232/281/361	129	284	15	0	23%	5%	81	-0.0
✕Brent Mayne 2001 · MLB	33	55→50	44→40	38→40	55	269/333/388	119	295	11	4	13%	9%	105	+1.7	256/313/344	88	288	8	4	13%	7%	88	+0.4	247/304/323	76	280	6	3	13%	7%	80	-0.1
✕Nick Hundley 2017 · MLB	33	51→45	49→55	42→40	46	257/304/407	150	304	16	5	21%	6%	99	+1.3	241/284/407	166	304	19	4	26%	6%	93	+0.8	229/267/395	166	295	19	2	29%	5%	84	+0.1
✕Brayan Peña 2014 · MLB	32	54→59	42→50	36→45	46	260/293/366	106	278	10	3	11%	4%	85	+0.2	254/297/341	87	280	6	4	11%	6%	81	-0.1	254/299/320	66	279	3	3	10%	6%	76	-0.2
✕Josh Bard 2010 · MLB	32	47→57	43→50	40→30	52	229/293/342	113	260	9	2	16%	8%	80	-0.1	224/274/343	119	267	12	3	20%	6%	74	-0.6	225/266/336	111	269	11	0	21%	5%	67	-0.4
✕Bryan Holaday 2020 · MLB	32	46	45	38→40	48	230/289/352	123	258	13	4	17%	6%	82	-0.0	222/283/363	141	267	15	7	23%	7%	82	-0.0	186/238/360	174	219	21	4	27%	5%	67	-0.3
✕Kyle Farmer 2024 · MLB	33	50→54	48→50	39→45	45	253/313/396	143	294	16	5	20%	6%	101	+1.4	228/290/358	130	274	14	5	21%	6%	83	+0.1	209/269/317	108	252	11	3	21%	6%	66	-0.4
✕Mike Redmond 2004 · MLB	33	55	40	41→30	49	261/319/356	95	288	7	3	12%	6%	93	+0.8	267/319/360	93	294	6	4	11%	5%	94	+0.9	307/346/374	67	335	2	0	9%	4%	107	+0.7
✕Matt Wieters 2019 · MLB	33	46→56	48→55	43→40	51	232/299/367	135	261	16	3	19%	8%	88	+0.5	234/302/404	170	270	23	6	23%	8%	99	+1.2	216/271/447	231	223	39	3	26%	7%	100	+0.4
✕Ty Wigginton 2011 · MLB	33	50→55	51→60	37→50	49	255/311/413	159	277	19	2	16%	7%	104	+1.6	233/300/377	144	270	17	6	20%	8%	92	+0.7	226/299/370	144	262	18	7	20%	9%	91	+0.4

Victor Caratini

Career Stats + Projections

How the minor-league lines were translated

Career Comps

Career Path Comps