Ryan McMahon

3B New York Yankees

Age 32 L/R 6'2" / 211 lbs MLB HR +14% Svc 9.035 · Ctrl thru 2027

Overview

MLB40-MANExtFA 2028

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	PA	AVG/OBP/SLG	HR	SB	wRC+	WAR
2024	29	MLBCOL	645	.242/.326/.397	20	4	94	1.8
2025	30	MLBNYY	586	.214/.314/.381	20	3	94	1.9
2026	31	MLBNYY	360	.213/.279/.357	11	3	77	-0.1
2027PROJ	32	MLBNYY	375	.228/.307/.400	14	3	96	1.1
2028PROJ	33	MLBNYY	338	.219/.298/.381	12	1	88	0.2

Last 3 seasons WAR 3.6 · Next 2 projected WAR 1.3Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2027Service9.035First FA2028

2027Ext$12M

Skills · percentileStatcast 2024-2026

Avg EV90

Bat Spd75

Barrel%68

xwOBA59

Speed17

Form.230/.302/.379 · rolling true talent (60d window) · proj .225/.303/.390

CompsAaron Guiel (age 32) · Scott Seabol (age 32) · Felix Perez (age 32)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONstats below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+†vL 7396vR 104

AVG/OBP/SLG.228 / .307 / .400

PA375

HR14

K%30

BB%10

BABIP293

ISO177

MLB%100%

Value2027 · WAR

trajectory · projected WAR by year

Tools · Recent Form · Splits · Contract

ToolsStatcast %ile · 2024-2026

CONTACT

xAVG

230.229

POWER

Barrel%

6810.9

Avg EV

9092.2

Bat Spd

7574.0

SPEED

Sprint

1725.9

Recent Formrolling true talent ⓘ

K%27%▲▲24% over 54 PA (60d) · proj 30%

BB%9%▼7% over 54 PA (60d) · proj 10%

ISO.150▼.100 over 50 AB (60d) · proj .165

HR/BB4.9%▼2.7% over 37 BBE (60d) · proj 5.7%

BABIP.291·.250 over 36 BIP (60d) · proj .293

SLASH.230/.302/.379·proj .225/.303/.390

Platoon Splits2024-2026 · 1280 PA

vs LHP

vs RHP

Edge

325

955

—

wRC+

102

▶R

wOBA

297

319

▶R

ISO

117

176

▶▶R

BABIP

322

296

◀L

30.8%

30.3%

—

BB%

9.2%

11.8%

▶▶R

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status FA

MLB Debut 2017

Service 9.035 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2027

First FA Year 2028

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	Ext	$12M	+1.1	$9M	-$3M
Totals		$12M		$9M	-$3M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2013	18	ROK	Grand Junction Rockies	—	251	218	70	18	3	11	28	59	2	4	6	321	403	583	986	261	396	24	11	423	86	—	—	—	—	—	—
2014	19	A	Asheville Tourists	—	552	482	136	46	3	18	54	143	7	8	5	282	363	502	865	220	360	26	10	374	63	—	—	—	—	—	—
2015	20	A+	Modesto Nuts	—	556	496	149	43	6	18	49	153	9	6	13	300	374	520	894	220	401	28	9	391	103	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	21	AA	Hartford Yard Goats	—	535	466	113	27	5	12	55	161	5	11	6	242	328	399	727	157	338	30	10	322	74	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	21	INTL	Salt River Rafters	—	89	77	19	2	1	1	11	21	1	1	1	247	348	338	686	91	327	24	12	317	101	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	22	MLB	Colorado Rockies	—	24	19	3	1	0	0	5	5	0	0	0	158	333	211	544	53	214	21	21	274	71	-1	+0	+0	-10	+1	-1.0
2017	22	AAA	Albuquerque Isotopes	—	314	289	108	23	2	14	21	53	0	4	3	374	416	612	1.029	239	416	17	7	443	129	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	22	AA	Hartford Yard Goats	—	205	181	59	16	2	6	20	39	1	7	0	326	396	536	932	210	381	19	10	403	128	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	23	MLB	Colorado Rockies	—	202	181	42	9	1	5	18	64	2	1	0	232	308	376	684	144	327	32	9	307	81	-5	+0	+0	-8	+4	-0.8
2018	23	AAA	Albuquerque Isotopes	—	242	224	65	15	3	11	15	61	2	3	2	290	340	531	871	241	353	25	6	378	78	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	24	MLB	Colorado Rockies	—	539	480	120	22	1	24	56	160	1	5	1	250	330	450	780	200	323	30	10	344	108	+5	+1	-1	+2	+12	1.9
2020	25	MLB	Colorado Rockies	—	193	172	37	6	1	9	18	66	2	0	1	215	297	419	715	203	286	34	9	316	89	-2	-0	-0	+1	+4	0.2
2021	26	MLB	Colorado Rockies	—	596	528	134	32	1	23	59	147	4	6	2	254	333	449	782	195	306	25	10	344	108	+6	+0	+10	+2	+13	3.1
2022	27	MLB	Colorado Rockies	—	597	529	130	23	3	20	60	158	5	7	3	246	328	414	742	168	311	26	10	331	100	+0	+0	+9	+2	+13	2.5
2023	28	MLB	Colorado Rockies	—	627	555	133	31	3	23	68	198	1	5	5	240	324	431	754	191	326	32	11	334	101	+1	-1	+7	+2	+14	2.3
2024	29	MLB	Colorado Rockies	—	645	567	137	28	0	20	69	185	3	4	6	242	326	397	723	155	320	29	11	323	94	-4	-2	+7	+2	+14	1.8
2025	30	MLB	New York Yankees	—	586	509	109	23	1	20	70	189	4	3	1	214	314	381	695	167	294	32	12	313	94	-4	+0	+7	+2	+13	1.9
2026	31	MLB	New York Yankees	—	360	328	70	14	0	11	28	106	2	3	2	213	279	357	636	143	278	29	8	285	77	-10	-0	+0	+1	+8	-0.1
▸ Career Totals (raw MLB only — historical actual)
MLB Career	—			—	4369	3868	915	189	11	155	451	1278	24	34	21	237	320	411	731	175	309	29	10	325	106	+33	-2	+40	-3	+95	16.7
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2013	18	ROK MLE	Grand Junction Rockies	—	251	229	53	13	2	8	17	85	2	4	6	231	290	410	701	179	319	34	7	295	86	—	—	—	—	—	—
2014	19	A MLE	Asheville Tourists	—	552	500	101	30	3	10	36	196	7	8	5	202	265	334	599	132	293	36	7	262	63	—	—	—	—	—	—
2015	20	A+ MLE	Modesto Nuts	—	556	512	128	35	4	19	33	196	9	6	13	250	307	445	752	195	360	35	6	321	103	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	21	AA MLE	Hartford Yard Goats	—	535	483	107	23	5	9	39	192	5	11	6	222	287	346	632	124	332	36	7	277	74	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	22	MLB MLE	Colorado Rockies	—	24	19	3	1	0	0	5	5	0	0	0	158	333	211	544	53	214	21	21	274	71	-1	+0	+0	-10	+1	-1.0
2017	22	AAA MLE	Albuquerque Isotopes	—	314	296	93	19	1	9	14	72	0	4	3	314	345	476	822	162	378	23	4	359	129	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	22	AA MLE	Hartford Yard Goats	—	205	188	57	15	2	4	13	45	1	7	0	303	351	468	820	165	365	22	6	357	128	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	23	MLB MLE	Colorado Rockies	—	202	183	40	9	1	4	16	64	2	1	0	219	289	344	633	126	327	32	8	288	81	-5	+0	+0	-8	+4	-0.8
2018	23	AAA MLE	Albuquerque Isotopes	—	242	228	51	12	2	7	11	81	2	3	2	224	266	386	652	162	312	33	5	284	78	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	24	MLB MLE	Colorado Rockies	—	539	481	114	21	1	21	55	160	1	5	1	237	317	416	732	179	323	30	10	328	108	+5	+1	-1	+2	+12	1.9
2020	25	MLB MLE	Colorado Rockies	—	193	172	35	6	1	8	18	66	2	0	1	203	286	390	676	186	286	34	9	300	89	-2	-0	-0	+1	+4	0.2
2021	26	MLB MLE	Colorado Rockies	—	596	530	128	31	1	20	57	147	4	6	2	242	320	417	737	175	306	25	10	328	108	+6	+0	+10	+2	+13	3.1
2022	27	MLB MLE	Colorado Rockies	—	597	529	123	22	2	18	60	158	5	7	3	233	316	384	700	151	311	26	10	317	100	+0	+0	+9	+2	+13	2.5
2023	28	MLB MLE	Colorado Rockies	—	627	557	126	30	2	20	66	198	1	5	5	226	309	395	704	169	326	32	11	317	101	+1	-1	+7	+2	+14	2.3
2024	29	MLB MLE	Colorado Rockies	—	645	573	131	27	0	18	65	185	3	4	6	229	310	370	680	141	320	29	10	308	94	-4	-2	+7	+2	+14	1.8
2025	30	MLB MLE	New York Yankees	—	586	510	108	23	1	19	69	189	4	3	1	212	310	373	683	161	294	32	12	308	94	-4	+0	+7	+2	+13	1.9
2026	31	MLB MLE	New York Yankees	—	360	328	69	14	0	10	28	106	2	3	2	210	277	345	621	134	278	29	8	282	77	-10	-0	+0	+1	+8	-0.1
2013	18	ROK MLE	Grand Junction Rockies	—	251	229	53	13	2	8	17	85	2	4	6	231	290	410	701	179	328	34	7	295	86	—	—	—	—	—	—
2013	18	ROK RAW	Grand Junction Rockies	—	251	218	70	18	3	11	28	59	2	4	6	321	403	583	986	261	396	24	11	423	86	—	—	—	—	—	—
2014	19	A MLE	Asheville Tourists	—	552	500	101	30	3	10	36	196	7	8	5	202	265	334	599	132	302	36	7	262	63	—	—	—	—	—	—
2014	19	A RAW	Asheville Tourists	—	552	482	136	46	3	18	54	143	7	8	5	282	363	502	865	220	360	26	10	374	63	—	—	—	—	—	—
2015	20	A+ MLE	Modesto Nuts	—	556	512	128	35	4	19	33	196	9	6	13	250	307	445	752	195	365	35	6	321	103	—	—	—	—	—	—
2015	20	A+ RAW	Modesto Nuts	—	556	496	149	43	6	18	49	153	9	6	13	300	374	520	894	220	401	28	9	391	103	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	21	AA MLE	2 teams	—	624	564	124	27	6	10	46	224	6	12	7	220	286	342	628	122	339	36	7	277	74	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	21	AA RAW	2 teams	—	624	543	132	29	6	13	66	182	6	12	7	243	331	390	722	147	336	29	11	321	74	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	22	AAA MLE	3 teams	—	543	504	154	35	4	13	31	122	1	11	3	306	347	468	815	163	375	22	6	354	126	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	22	AAA RAW	3 teams	—	543	489	170	40	4	20	46	97	1	11	3	348	405	569	973	221	396	18	8	420	126	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	23	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	444	411	91	21	3	11	27	145	4	4	2	221	276	367	643	146	311	33	6	286	79	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	23	AAA RAW	2 teams	—	444	405	107	24	4	16	33	125	4	4	2	264	326	462	788	198	342	28	7	346	79	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	24	MLB MLE	Colorado Rockies	—	539	481	114	21	1	21	55	160	1	5	1	237	317	416	732	179	309	30	10	328	108	+5	+1	-1	+2	+12	1.9
2019	24	MLB RAW	Colorado Rockies	—	539	480	120	22	1	24	56	160	1	5	1	250	330	450	780	200	323	30	10	344	108	+5	+1	-1	+2	+12	1.9
2020	25	MLB MLE	Colorado Rockies	—	193	172	35	6	1	8	18	66	2	0	1	203	286	390	676	186	273	34	9	300	89	-2	-0	-0	+1	+4	0.2
2020	25	MLB RAW	Colorado Rockies	—	193	172	37	6	1	9	18	66	2	0	1	215	297	419	715	203	286	34	9	316	89	-2	-0	-0	+1	+4	0.2
2021	26	MLB MLE	Colorado Rockies	—	596	530	128	31	1	20	57	147	4	6	2	242	320	417	737	175	293	25	10	328	108	+6	+0	+10	+2	+13	3.1
2021	26	MLB RAW	Colorado Rockies	—	596	528	134	32	1	23	59	147	4	6	2	254	333	449	782	195	306	25	10	344	108	+6	+0	+10	+2	+13	3.1
2022	27	MLB MLE	Colorado Rockies	—	597	529	123	22	2	18	60	158	5	7	3	233	316	384	700	151	295	26	10	317	100	+0	+0	+9	+2	+13	2.5
2022	27	MLB RAW	Colorado Rockies	—	597	529	130	23	3	20	60	158	5	7	3	246	328	414	742	168	311	26	10	331	100	+0	+0	+9	+2	+13	2.5
2023	28	MLB MLE	Colorado Rockies	—	627	557	126	30	2	20	66	198	1	5	5	226	309	395	704	169	310	32	11	317	101	+1	-1	+7	+2	+14	2.3
2023	28	MLB RAW	Colorado Rockies	—	627	555	133	31	3	23	68	198	1	5	5	240	324	431	754	191	326	32	11	334	101	+1	-1	+7	+2	+14	2.3
2024	29	MLB MLE	Colorado Rockies	—	645	573	131	27	0	18	65	185	3	4	6	229	310	370	680	141	302	29	10	308	94	-4	-2	+7	+2	+14	1.8
2024	29	MLB RAW	Colorado Rockies	—	645	567	137	28	0	20	69	185	3	4	6	242	326	397	723	155	320	29	11	323	94	-4	-2	+7	+2	+14	1.8
2025	30	MLB MLE	New York Yankees	—	586	510	108	23	1	19	69	189	4	3	1	212	310	373	683	161	292	32	12	308	94	-4	+0	+7	+2	+13	1.9
2025	30	MLB RAW	New York Yankees	—	586	509	109	23	1	20	70	189	4	3	1	214	314	381	695	167	294	32	12	313	94	-4	+0	+7	+2	+13	1.9
2026	31	MLB MLE	New York Yankees	—	360	328	69	14	0	10	28	106	2	3	2	210	277	345	621	134	277	29	8	282	77	-10	-0	+0	+1	+8	-0.1
2026	31	MLB RAW	New York Yankees	—	360	328	70	14	0	11	28	106	2	3	2	213	279	357	636	143	278	29	8	285	77	-10	-0	+0	+1	+8	-0.1
2013	18	ROK MLE	Grand Junction Rockies	—	251	230	53	13	2	8	17	85	2	4	6	230	290	409	699	178	319	34	7	295	86	—	—	—	—	—	—
2014	19	A MLE	Asheville Tourists	—	552	504	101	30	3	10	36	196	7	8	5	200	265	331	597	131	293	36	7	262	63	—	—	—	—	—	—
2015	20	A+ MLE	Modesto Nuts	—	556	509	128	35	4	19	33	196	9	6	13	251	307	448	755	196	360	35	6	321	103	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	21	AA MLE	2 teams	—	624	567	124	27	6	10	46	224	6	12	7	219	286	340	626	122	332	36	7	277	74	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	22	AAA MLE	3 teams	—	543	506	154	35	4	13	31	122	1	11	3	304	347	466	813	162	366	22	6	354	126	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	23	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	444	410	91	21	3	11	27	145	4	4	2	222	276	368	644	146	319	33	6	286	79	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	24	MLB MLE	Colorado Rockies	—	539	478	114	21	1	21	55	160	1	5	1	238	317	418	735	180	323	30	10	328	108	—	—	—	—	—	—
2020	25	MLB MLE	Colorado Rockies	—	193	171	35	6	1	8	18	66	2	0	1	205	286	392	678	187	286	34	9	300	89	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	26	MLB MLE	Colorado Rockies	—	596	530	128	31	1	20	57	147	4	6	2	242	320	417	737	175	306	25	10	328	108	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	27	MLB MLE	Colorado Rockies	—	597	527	123	22	2	18	60	158	5	7	3	233	316	385	702	152	311	26	10	317	100	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	28	MLB MLE	Colorado Rockies	—	627	555	126	30	2	20	66	198	1	5	5	227	309	396	706	169	326	32	11	317	101	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	29	MLB MLE	Colorado Rockies	—	645	572	131	27	0	18	65	185	3	4	6	229	310	371	681	142	320	29	10	308	94	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	30	MLB MLE	New York Yankees	—	586	508	108	23	1	19	69	189	4	3	1	213	310	374	684	161	294	32	12	308	94	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	31	MLB MLE	New York Yankees	—	360	327	69	14	0	10	28	106	2	3	2	211	277	346	622	135	278	29	8	282	77	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons)
2024	29	MLB MLE	Colorado Rockies	—	645	572	131	27	0	18	65	185	3	4	6	229	310	371	681	142	320	29	10	308	94	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	30	MLB MLE	New York Yankees	—	586	508	108	23	1	19	69	189	4	3	1	213	310	374	684	161	294	32	12	308	94	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	31	MLB MLE	New York Yankees	—	360	327	69	14	0	10	28	106	2	3	2	211	277	346	622	135	278	29	8	282	77	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2027 season
▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability)
2027	32	MLB MLE	NYY	100%	463	413	93	19	1	16	44	137	3	4	1	225	305	390	695	165	293	30	10	310	96	-2	+0	+3	+2	+10	1.1
▸ 2027 — real world (MLB)
2027	32	MLB CTX	NYY	100%	375	334	76	15	1	14	36	111	2	3	1	228	307	400	707	172	293	30	10	314	96	-2	+0	+3	+1	+8	1.1
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
2028	33	MLB MLE	NYY	100%	338	301	65	13	0	11	32	102	2	1	1	217	296	372	668	155	285	30	9	299	88	-5	-0	-2	+1	+7	0.2
2028	33	MLB CTX	NYY	100%	338	301	66	13	0	12	32	102	2	1	1	219	298	381	679	162	285	30	9	303	88	-5	-0	-2	+1	+7	0.2
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	4707	4169	981	202	11	167	483	1380	26	35	22	235	318	409	728	174	308	29	10	324	94	+29	-2	+38	-2	+102	16.8
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	576	136	28	2	23	67	191	4	5	3	236	320	411	731	175	310	29	10	324	94	+4	-0	+5	-0	+14	2.3
Career	—	MLE		—	7826	7035	1624	363	30	229	676	2390	55	82	59	231	303	389	692	158	312	31	9	307	94	+27	-2	+40	-0	+110	17.9
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	584	134	30	2	19	56	199	5	7	5	229	302	385	688	156	311	31	9	307	94	+3	-0	+5	-0	+14	2.3

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2018 AAAAlbuquerque Isotopes · 242 PAwOBA .369 → .284 (−85)K% 25.2% → 33.3%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	25.21%	÷0.978	×1.290	—	—	33.26%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	6.20%	÷1.024	×0.710	—	×1.048	4.50%
HBP% /PA	0.83%	—	×0.980	—	×1.048	0.85%
Singles /BIP	22.09%	÷1.034	×0.900	×1.001	×1.048	20.18%
Doubles /BIP	9.20%	÷0.960	×0.810	×1.001	×1.048	8.15%
Triples /BIP	1.84%	÷0.973	×0.810	×1.001	×1.048	1.61%
Home runs /BIP	6.75%	÷1.162	×0.780	—	×1.048	4.75%

Factors used: league row PCL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 132, 1B 107, 2B 92, 3B 95, K 96, BB 105 — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 27.2 → +4.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.001.

Result: wOBA .369 → .284; ISO .241 → .170; BABIP .353 → .312. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2017 AAAAlbuquerque Isotopes · 314 PAwOBA .433 → .359 (−74)K% 16.9% → 22.8%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	16.88%	÷0.956	×1.290	—	—	22.77%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	5.73%	÷0.996	×0.710	—	×1.050	4.29%
HBP% /PA	0.00%	—	×0.980	—	×1.050	0.00%
Singles /BIP	29.24%	÷1.019	×0.900	×1.036	×1.050	28.08%
Doubles /BIP	9.75%	÷1.045	×0.810	×1.036	×1.050	8.22%
Triples /BIP	0.85%	÷1.150	×0.810	×1.036	×1.050	0.65%
Home runs /BIP	5.93%	÷1.202	×0.780	—	×1.050	4.04%

Factors used: league row PCL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 140, 1B 104, 2B 109, 3B 130, K 91, BB 99 — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 27.2 → +5.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (4.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.036.

Result: wOBA .433 → .359; ISO .239 → .172; BABIP .416 → .378. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2017 AAHartford Yard Goats · 205 PAwOBA .395 → .357 (−38)K% 19.0% → 22.1%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	19.02%	÷1.051	×1.220	—	—	22.08%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	8.78%	÷1.017	×0.700	—	×1.027	6.21%
HBP% /PA	0.49%	—	×0.850	—	×1.027	0.43%
Singles /BIP	24.65%	÷1.026	×0.970	×1.027	×1.027	24.59%
Doubles /BIP	11.27%	÷1.014	×0.860	×1.027	×1.027	10.09%
Triples /BIP	1.41%	÷0.900	×0.950	×1.027	×1.027	1.57%
Home runs /BIP	4.23%	÷1.183	×0.780	—	×1.027	2.86%

Factors used: league row EL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 137, 1B 105, 2B 103, 3B 80, K 110, BB 103 — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 24.8 → +2.7% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.027.

Result: wOBA .395 → .357; ISO .210 → .176; BABIP .381 → .365. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2016 AAHartford Yard Goats · 535 PAwOBA .316 → .277 (−39)K% 30.1% → 35.9%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	30.09%	÷1.022	×1.220	—	—	35.92%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	10.09%	÷1.007	×0.700	—	×1.042	7.31%
HBP% /PA	0.93%	—	×0.850	—	×1.042	0.83%
Singles /BIP	22.62%	÷0.981	×0.970	×1.000	×1.042	23.31%
Doubles /BIP	8.85%	÷1.021	×0.860	×1.000	×1.042	7.76%
Triples /BIP	1.64%	÷0.900	×0.950	×1.000	×1.042	1.80%
Home runs /BIP	3.93%	÷1.094	×0.780	—	×1.042	2.92%

Factors used: league row EL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 119, 1B 96, 2B 104, 3B 80, K 104, BB 101 — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 24.8 → +4.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.000.

Result: wOBA .316 → .277; ISO .157 → .129; BABIP .338 → .332. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2015 A+Modesto Nuts · 556 PAwOBA .381 → .321 (−60)K% 27.5% → 35.3%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	27.52%	÷1.046	×1.340	—	—	35.25%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	8.63%	÷1.043	×0.710	—	×1.027	6.03%
HBP% /PA	1.62%	—	×0.790	—	×1.027	1.31%
Singles /BIP	23.91%	÷1.014	×0.910	×0.996	×1.027	21.95%
Doubles /BIP	12.54%	÷0.963	×0.820	×0.996	×1.027	10.92%
Triples /BIP	1.75%	÷1.150	×0.760	×0.996	×1.027	1.18%
Home runs /BIP	5.25%	÷0.827	×0.920	—	×1.027	6.00%

Factors used: league row CAL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 65, 1B 103, 2B 93, 3B 130, K 109, BB 109 — applied at half strength. Age: age 21 vs a level average of 22.8 → +2.7% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.996.

Result: wOBA .381 → .321; ISO .220 → .201; BABIP .401 → .360. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2014 AAsheville Tourists · 552 PAwOBA .368 → .262 (−106)K% 25.9% → 35.5%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	25.91%	÷0.978	×1.340	—	—	35.50%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	9.60%	÷0.984	×0.660	—	×1.030	6.64%
HBP% /PA	1.27%	—	×0.770	—	×1.030	1.01%
Singles /BIP	20.35%	÷1.002	×0.920	×0.957	×1.030	18.42%
Doubles /BIP	13.57%	÷1.135	×0.820	×0.957	×1.030	9.66%
Triples /BIP	0.88%	÷0.900	×0.940	×0.957	×1.030	0.91%
Home runs /BIP	5.31%	÷1.390	×0.820	—	×1.030	3.23%

Factors used: league row SAL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 178, 1B 100, 2B 127, 3B 80, K 96, BB 97 — applied at half strength. Age: age 20 vs a level average of 22.0 → +3.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.0 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.957.

Result: wOBA .368 → .262; ISO .220 → .138; BABIP .360 → .293. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2013 ROKGrand Junction Rockies · 251 PAwOBA .413 → .295 (−118)K% 23.5% → 33.8%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	23.51%	÷1.000	×1.440	—	—	33.85%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	11.16%	÷1.000	×0.610	—	×1.008	6.86%
HBP% /PA	0.80%	—	×0.720	—	×1.008	0.58%
Singles /BIP	23.90%	÷1.000	×0.820	×1.038	×1.008	20.50%
Doubles /BIP	11.32%	÷1.000	×0.720	×1.038	×1.008	8.53%
Triples /BIP	1.89%	÷1.000	×0.720	×1.038	×1.008	1.42%
Home runs /BIP	6.92%	÷1.000	×0.750	—	×1.008	5.23%

Factors used: league row PIO. Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 19 vs a level average of 19.5 → +0.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.5 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.038.

Result: wOBA .413 → .295; ISO .261 → .183; BABIP .396 → .319. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Not traceable per stint: some stints lack the counting stats the component translation needs. Level-wide factors that apply instead — .

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	162s	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Mike Moustakaslast yr '23 career totals — 13 seasons, 5,577 PA	8.4	5,577	215	21	247	307	431	+14	+18	22.8	22.1
/162	664	26	3	+1.6	+2.1	2.7	pk7: 21
#2Brandon Ingelast yr '13 career totals — 13 seasons, 5,617 PA	8.5	5,617	152	45	233	301	384	+26	+73	19.8	20.5
/162	664	18	5	+3.1	+8.6	2.3	pk7: 21
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 11 projected seasons	7.6	5,058	179	38	236	315	411	+18	+50	17.9	17.1
/162	664	23	5	+2.4	+6.6	2.4	pk7: 16
#3Steve Buechele'85-'95 * career totals — 11 seasons, 4,790 PA	7.2	4,790	137	17	242*	314*	413*	+16	+18	15.7	16.1
/162	664	19	2	+2.2	+2.5	2.2	pk7: 16
#4Tony Batista'96-'07 * career totals — 11 seasons, 4,959 PA	7.5	4,959	221	47	240*	288*	438*	+17	+34	16.1	16.1
/162	664	30	6	+2.3	+4.5	2.2	pk7: 16
#5Mike Pagliarulo'84-'95 * career totals — 11 seasons, 4,317 PA	6.5	4,317	134	18	238*	304*	423*	+14	+21	14.1	14.0
/162	664	21	3	+2.2	+3.2	2.2	pk7: 14
#6Jedd Gyorkolast yr '20 career totals — 8 seasons, 2,983 PA	4.5	2,983	121	14	245	310	424	+8	+22	13.4	13.5
/162	664	27	3	+1.7	+5.0	3.0	pk7: 14

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Ryan McMahon (OGILVIE)	32	—	—	—	—	223/303/387	163	293	13	3	30%	10%	96	+0.6	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Aaron Guiel 2005 · MLB	32	46→53	52→60	37→45	50	235/313/404	169	268	19	6	20%	8%	103	+1.5	226/306/410	184	258	22	6	22%	8%	102	+1.5	218/301/405	187	246	23	4	22%	8%	99	+1.2
✕Scott Seabol 2007 · MLB	32	44→42	53→55	38→40	45	229/284/401	173	270	20	3	24%	7%	91	+0.7	234/288/421	187	269	23	7	22%	7%	97	+1.1	228/281/424	196	253	25	5	21%	6%	95	+0.9
✕Felix Perez 2017 · AAA	32	47→54	51→60	38→50	44	241/288/403	161	277	19	5	21%	6%	93	+0.8	235/287/404	169	274	22	5	23%	6%	93	+0.8	218/271/411	193	237	28	0	23%	5%	90	+0.3
✕Brett Harper 2013 · AAA	32	48→51	54→60	38→30	42	250/301/419	168	299	23	5	25%	5%	102	+1.5	243/301/404	161	303	22	6	26%	7%	99	+1.2	229/285/373	144	281	22	0	27%	6%	84	+0.1
✕Yoshi Tsutsugo 2023 · MLB	31	42→41	49→50	39→30	52	216/299/359	143	271	18	2	27%	10%	87	+0.4	224/310/364	140	307	16	7	30%	11%	93	+0.8	208/312/349	140	296	16	5	32%	12%	87	+0.2
✕Laynce Nix 2013 · MLB	32	49→47	53→60	43→45	46	249/305/428	180	304	21	4	25%	8%	105	+1.7	224/280/360	136	299	15	8	29%	7%	80	-0.1	176/212/250	74	250	8	4	32%	4%	29	-0.9
✕Tim Beckham 2021 · MLB	31	46→55	55	39→50	43	238/296/424	186	300	22	5	28%	7%	101	+1.4	249/299/400	151	324	19	7	28%	6%	96	+1.0	255/299/384	129	337	17	4	28%	5%	89	+0.2
●Matt Joyce 2017 · MLB	32	45→52	52→60	37→50	60	230/341/398	168	276	19	3	23%	14%	112	+2.2	243/343/441	198	278	24	4	21%	13%	122	+2.9	245/346/440	195	278	24	2	20%	13%	124	+1.8
✕John Rodriguez 2010 · AAA	32	42→47	50→55	40	43	219/289/371	152	277	18	3	27%	7%	86	+0.3	214/279/354	140	260	15	8	23%	6%	78	-0.3	179/254/309	130	192	10	8	13%	6%	58	-0.4
✕Jake Lamb 2023 · MLB	32	43→53	52→60	40→45	47	222/304/389	167	295	20	3	31%	9%	97	+1.1	218/294/339	121	286	13	3	27%	8%	81	-0.1	207/284/306	98	273	10	1	26%	8%	68	-0.6
✕James McCann 2022 · MLB	32	50→55	50	41→45	44	251/311/403	152	323	19	5	28%	7%	101	+1.4	225/282/358	133	288	16	7	26%	6%	80	-0.1	243/286/397	153	300	21	1	26%	5%	91	+0.3
✕Scott Moore 2014 · MLB	30	45→50	48→55	38→50	44	225/289/369	145	288	15	3	27%	7%	86	+0.3	193/261/313	120	254	13	5	28%	6%	63	-1.4	161/235/264	103	208	12	3	28%	6%	40	-1.5
✕Dallas McPherson 2012 · MLB	32	43→42	53→65	42→50	36	224/265/390	167	306	22	4	34%	5%	82	-0.0	223/272/380	157	330	20	7	37%	6%	82	-0.0	205/259/364	159	310	21	4	39%	6%	71	-0.5
✕Curt Casali 2020 · MLB	31	49	48→50	40→30	48	244/309/380	137	296	16	3	23%	8%	95	+1.0	230/320/392	162	298	19	5	28%	10%	103	+1.5	207/312/292	85	276	8	0	25%	11%	77	-0.1
✕Luis Valbuena 2018 · MLB	32	41→51	59→60	38→50	54	226/313/435	209	256	28	3	24%	11%	110	+2.1	220/284/386	166	289	21	7	30%	8%	88	+0.4	196/244/328	132	273	18	6	35%	6%	60	-0.8
✕Mike Wilson 2014 · MLB	31	45→53	48→55	37→50	42	225/286/367	143	307	16	6	31%	7%	84	+0.2	216/279/360	144	302	17	8	33%	7%	80	-0.2	193/261/335	142	262	19	6	33%	7%	64	-0.4
✕Alex Gonzalez 2005 · MLB	32	45→50	51→55	41→45	46	230/285/395	165	266	18	5	21%	7%	90	+0.6	239/292/376	137	285	14	6	21%	7%	88	+0.4	265/318/403	138	312	14	3	19%	7%	105	+1.1
✕Yadiel Hernandez 2020 · AAA	32	48→54	53→55	43→45	46	250/306/412	163	304	22	7	26%	8%	101	+1.4	252/305/415	163	309	21	7	25%	7%	102	+1.5	264/313/408	144	313	19	4	22%	6%	103	+0.9
✕Paul McAnulty 2011 · MLB	30	42→51	52→55	38→40	47	223/286/386	163	260	21	2	23%	8%	88	+0.5	224/285/390	166	268	20	4	24%	7%	89	+0.5	215/280/381	166	257	20	3	25%	8%	84	+0.1
✕Troy O'Leary 2002 · MLB	32	49→53	51→50	39→30	49	248/305/418	170	272	17	3	17%	7%	102	+1.5	248/311/383	135	282	13	6	16%	8%	97	+1.1	251/319/357	106	287	9	5	15%	8%	94	+0.4

Ryan McMahon

Career Stats + Projections

How the minor-league lines were translated

Career Comps

Career Path Comps