Adrian Pena
P
DSL Miami
Age 18
RHP
6'7" / 194 lbs
ROK
peak 0.4 · 2027
2026 ROS PROJECTION35 act + 24 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 119110vR 100
ERA4.39
FIP4.39
K%23.2%
BB%9.8%
K-BB%13.4%
ROS IP24
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 60 IP
Grades · Contract
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 17 | ROK | DSL Miami | 5 | 4 | 9 | 39 | 9 | 13 | 0 | 80% | 1.7 | 23.1% | 33.3% | -10.3% | 0.0% | 3.12 | 5.37 | — |
| 2025 | 17 | ROK | DSL Miami | 5 | 4 | 9 | 39 | 9 | 13 | 0 | 80% | 1.7 | 23.1% | 33.3% | -10.3% | 0.0% | 3.12 | 5.52 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 18 | ROK | DSL Marlins | 20 | 10 | 35 | 193 | 42 | 54 | 0 | 50% | 1.8 | 14.8% | 35.0% | -20.2% | 0.0% | 9.26 | 6.28 | -0.7 |
| ROS | 18 | MLB | MIA | 4 | 4 | 24 | 103 | 24 | 10 | 3 | 100% | 6.1 | 23.2% | 9.8% | 13.4% | 3.0% | 4.39 | 4.39 | +0.0 |
| ROS | 18 | MLB | MIA | — | — | 0 | — | — | — | — | — | — | 23.2% | 9.8% | 13.4% | 3.0% | 4.39 | 4.39 | — |
| 2026 TOT | 18 | MLB | MIA | — | — | 60 | 296 | 66 | 64 | 3 | — | — | 22.3% | 21.6% | 0.6% | 1.0% | 7.25 | 5.50 | -0.7 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 19 | MLB | MIA | 5 | 5 | 26 | 109 | 26 | 10 | 3 | 100% | 5.1 | 23.6% | 9.3% | 14.3% | 2.9% | 4.31 | 4.26 | +0.1 |
| 2027 | 19 | MLB | MIA | 2 | 2 | 13 | 55 | 13 | 5 | 2 | 100% | 6.5 | 23.6% | 9.3% | 14.3% | 2.9% | 4.31 | 4.26 | +0.0 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 3 | 3 | 13 | 53 | 13 | 5 | 2 | 100% | 4.2 | 23.6% | 9.3% | 14.3% | 2.9% | 4.31 | 3.88 | +0.1 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 46 | 46 | 200 | 844 | 206 | 79 | 32 | 100% | 4.3 | 23.6% | 9.3% | 14.3% | 2.9% | 4.31 | 3.88 | +3.6 | ||
| Career | — | 25 | 14 | 44 | 232 | 38 | 80 | 0 | 56% | 1.7 | 16.2% | 34.7% | -18.5% | 0.0% | 8.04 | 6.13 | -0.8 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 115 | 64 | 200 | 1063 | 172 | 369 | 0 | 56% | 1.7 | 16.2% | 34.7% | -18.5% | 0.0% | 8.04 | 6.13 | -1.7 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Adrian Pena (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.39 | 23.2% | 9.8% | 3.0% | — | 4.26 | 23.6% | 14.3% | 26 | -0.13 | — | — | — |
| Amilcar Chirinos R 2028 · 3.26 FIP | 20 | SP- | 3.26 | 25.6% | 12.3% | 1.4% | .349 | 4.01 | 19.3% | 6.3% | 147 | +0.75 | 2.86 | 212 | 78 |
| Christian Romero R 2026 · 3.24 FIP | 18 | SP- | 3.24 | 18.8% | 8.6% | 1.1% | .280 | 4.96 | 16.3% | 7.8% | 198 | +1.72 | 3.24 | 415 | 77 |
| Gerelmi Maldonado R 2026 · 4.21 FIP | 18 | SP- | 4.21 | 24.0% | 14.2% | 2.4% | .337 | 4.64 | 19.9% | 2.2% | 124 | +0.43 | 3.83 | 215 | 76 |
| Fraynel Nova R 2028 · 4.00 FIP | 20 | SP- | 4.00 | 16.4% | 7.9% | 2.3% | .296 | 4.17 | 14.9% | 4.9% | 110 | +0.17 | 3.49 | 129 | 76 |
| Alimber Santa R 2026 · 4.85 FIP | 18 | SW | 4.85 | 17.0% | 11.4% | 3.2% | .304 | 5.11 | 20.9% | 1.8% | 125 | +0.26 | 3.22 | 255 | 76 |
| Wilmy Sanchez R 2026 · 3.88 FIP | 18 | SW | 3.88 | 23.0% | 12.9% | 2.0% | .316 | 4.19 | 21.5% | 3.8% | 148 | +0.31 | 3.29 | 203 | 75 |
| Luis Victorino R 2027 · 4.27 FIP | 19 | SP- | 4.27 | 18.9% | 12.8% | 2.1% | .301 | 4.95 | 15.9% | -5.0% | 84 | +0.68 | 4.27 | 148 | 75 |
| Sean Paul Liñan R 2026 · 4.04 FIP | 18 | SP- | 4.04 | 17.7% | 8.3% | 2.5% | .324 | 4.14 | 23.1% | 11.5% | 181 | +0.10 | 3.29 | 243 | 75 |
| Heisell Baro R 2025 · 4.37 FIP | 17 | SP- | 4.37 | 19.0% | 11.9% | 2.5% | .196 | 5.77 | 15.8% | -1.4% | 61 | +1.40 | 4.16 | 105 | 75 |
| Moisés Chace R 2026 · 3.81 FIP | 18 | SP- | 3.81 | 20.5% | 13.0% | 1.5% | .387 | 4.54 | 24.2% | 6.9% | 208 | +0.73 | 3.81 | 247 | 74 |
| Luis Aguilar R 2027 · 4.54 FIP | 19 | SW | 4.54 | 17.6% | 10.3% | 3.0% | .356 | 4.26 | 16.7% | 6.7% | 111 | -0.28 | 3.52 | 146 | 74 |
| Deretd Parra R 2027 · 5.29 FIP | 19 | SP- | 5.29 | 16.8% | 10.9% | 4.1% | .295 | 3.80 | 15.7% | 2.3% | 83 | -1.49 | 2.79 | 161 | 74 |
| Ryan Fernandez R 2028 · 4.44 FIP | 20 | SP- | 4.44 | 19.2% | 6.8% | 3.8% | .357 | 3.52 | 20.8% | 13.2% | 53 | -0.92 | 2.97 | 335 | 73 |
| Grant Holman R 2029 · 5.18 FIP | 21 | SP- | 5.18 | 18.2% | 7.7% | 4.8% | .308 | 3.75 | 22.4% | 13.8% | 133 | -1.43 | 3.08 | 184 | 73 |
| Miguel Díaz R 2028 · 3.40 FIP | 20 | SP- | 3.40 | 19.3% | 7.7% | 1.7% | .365 | 4.50 | 19.4% | 8.2% | 233 | +1.10 | 2.22 | 573 | 73 |
| Sheng-En Lin R 2027 · 3.58 FIP | 19 | SP- | 3.58 | 22.3% | 9.6% | 2.1% | .223 | 4.19 | 17.8% | 3.4% | 61 | +0.61 | 3.58 | 108 | 71 |
| Michael Dominguez R 2026 · 3.82 FIP | 18 | SW | 3.82 | 20.8% | 13.2% | 1.5% | .218 | 4.83 | 21.1% | 10.6% | 110 | +1.01 | 3.82 | 383 | 71 |
| Miguel Alfonseca R 2029 · 4.24 FIP | 21 | SP- | 4.24 | 18.3% | 12.1% | 2.1% | .400 | 5.54 | 14.9% | -0.9% | 92 | +1.30 | 4.24 | 123 | 71 |
| Ricardo Brizuela R 2027 · 3.86 FIP | 19 | SW | 3.86 | 20.1% | 11.6% | 1.8% | .375 | 4.52 | 16.0% | 7.1% | 208 | +0.66 | 3.35 | 246 | 71 |
| Dawil Almonte R 2028 · 3.60 FIP | 20 | SW | 3.60 | 17.4% | 7.8% | 1.8% | .271 | 4.44 | 14.7% | 3.3% | 97 | +0.84 | 3.60 | 138 | 71 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 2 | 25 | 23.4% | 9.5% | 1.14 | 4.35 |
| Noé Ramirez ('22) | 5 | 52 | 24.8% | 9.0% | 1.33 | 4.19 |
| Randall Delgado ('17) | 3 | 70 | 22.2% | 9.2% | 0.90 | 3.78 |
| Santiago Casilla ('18) | 4 | 52 | 23.5% | 9.6% | 0.96 | 3.49 |
| Brandon Maurer ('18) | 4 | 53 | 21.5% | 8.8% | 1.06 | 5.20 |
| José Ruiz ('24) | 5 | 52 | 22.2% | 10.4% | 1.41 | 4.41 |
| David Hernandez ('19) | 5 | 54 | 25.0% | 7.9% | 1.14 | 4.10 |