Wellington Aracena

Wellington Aracena P Hillsboro Hops

+0.6 WAR

Age 21 RHP 6'3" / 180 lbs A+ Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2035 peak 3.0 · 2031

ERA4.48

FIP4.48

xFIP—

SIERA—

K%22.7%

BB%12.6%

K-BB%10.1%

IP92

trajectory · 10 yrs

3.0peak

2031

K†5560

Career (MLE) + Projections

Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	K%	BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
2022	17	ROK	DSL Mets 2	12	5	25	125	28	23	1	15.2%	23.0%	1.1%	6.84	5.34	-0.1
2023	18	ROK	DSL Mets Blue	11	10	43	182	46	23	3	17.2%	15.8%	2.9%	3.77	5.25	-0.1
2024	19	A	St. Lucie Mets	17	11	41	208	56	42	2	18.9%	24.7%	1.4%	7.30	5.41	-0.2
2025	20	A+	Aberdeen IronBirds	23	14	92	376	114	51	0	22.6%	15.9%	0.0%	2.25	3.20	+2.1
▸ 2026 Season
2026	21	A+	Hillsboro Hops	1	1	3	12	3	2	0	—	—	—	6.00	—	—
ROS	21	MLB	ARI	17	17	92	388	88	49	9	22.7%	12.7%	2.4%	4.48	4.48	+0.8
2026 Total	21	MLB	ARI	—	—	95	400	91	51	9	22.8%	12.8%	2.3%	4.53	4.34	+1.0
▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging
2027	22	MLB	ARI	22	22	119	501	118	56	12	23.6%	11.1%	2.4%	4.31	4.21	+1.5
2028	23	MLB	ARI	26	26	143	604	146	61	14	24.2%	10.1%	2.4%	4.15	4.03	+2.1
2029	24	MLB	ARI	30	30	163	687	169	65	16	24.6%	9.5%	2.4%	4.02	3.92	+2.5
2030	25	MLB	ARI	32	32	177	746	186	68	18	24.9%	9.2%	2.4%	3.92	3.85	+2.9
2031	26	MLB	ARI	32	32	177	746	187	68	18	25.1%	9.1%	2.4%	3.86	3.83	+2.9
2032	27	MLB	ARI	32	32	175	740	186	68	18	25.1%	9.1%	2.4%	3.85	3.84	+2.9
2033	28	MLB	ARI	31	31	173	729	183	67	18	25.1%	9.2%	2.4%	3.86	3.86	+2.8
2034	29	MLB	ARI	31	31	169	713	178	66	18	25.0%	9.3%	2.5%	3.89	3.91	+2.7
2035	30	MLB	ARI	30	30	164	691	171	65	18	24.8%	9.4%	2.5%	3.94	3.97	+2.5
2036	31	MLB	ARI	29	29	158	667	164	63	17	24.5%	9.5%	2.6%	4.00	4.05	+2.2
2037	32	MLB	ARI	28	28	152	641	155	62	17	24.2%	9.6%	2.7%	4.08	4.13	+2.0
2038	33	MLB	ARI	26	26	145	612	146	60	17	23.9%	9.8%	2.8%	4.17	4.23	+1.8
2039	34	MLB	ARI	25	25	138	581	137	58	17	23.6%	10.0%	2.9%	4.27	4.34	+1.5
▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected)
Career	—			64	41	204	903	178	171	10	19.7%	18.9%	1.1%	4.20	4.42	+2.0
/ 200 IP	—			63	40	200	887	175	168	10	19.7%	18.9%	1.1%	4.20	4.42	+2.0

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Wellington Aracena (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.48	22.7%	12.7%	2.4%	—	4.04	24.2%	14.0%	424	-0.44	—	—	—
Zach Messinger R 2027 · 3.99 FIP	22	SP-	3.99	23.0%	14.7%	1.8%	.317	4.34	18.8%	7.3%	314	+0.35	3.71	397	93
Nolan DeVos R 2027 · 4.17 FIP	22	SP-	4.17	21.1%	14.0%	2.0%	.302	5.82	12.3%	-1.5%	12	+1.65	4.17	110	91
Cade Smith R 2027 · 3.86 FIP	22	SP-	3.86	23.2%	13.3%	1.9%	.273	4.20	20.3%	6.5%	33	+0.34	3.86	118	91
Trace Bright R 2027 · 4.24 FIP	22	SP-	4.24	26.3%	14.7%	2.7%	.297	4.47	19.0%	3.7%	211	+0.23	4.24	311	90
Corey Black R 2028 · 4.18 FIP	23	SP-	4.18	22.1%	13.9%	2.1%	.310	3.55	22.1%	6.0%	53	-0.63	3.55	139	90
Kyle Bradish R 2027 · 4.55 FIP	22	SP-	4.55	20.8%	13.7%	2.7%	.309	3.87	24.1%	14.7%	238	-0.68	2.16	615	89
Jimmy Endersby R 2028 · 4.24 FIP	23	SP-	4.24	20.9%	14.1%	2.0%	.310	5.78	16.4%	3.7%	225	+1.54	2.86	357	88
Will Watson R 2027 · 4.13 FIP	22	SP-	4.13	21.8%	13.4%	2.1%	.275	4.39	15.6%	5.0%	11	+0.26	4.13	132	88
Juaron Watts-Brown R 2027 · 5.24 FIP	22	SP-	5.24	21.8%	15.4%	3.7%	.294	4.20	24.4%	13.6%	124	-1.04	4.20	227	88
Austin Hansen R 2027 · 3.81 FIP	22	SP-	3.81	25.1%	15.0%	1.7%	.230	7.80	19.8%	-0.3%	26	+3.99	3.81	204	88
Carlson Reed R 2026 · 3.73 FIP	21	SP-	3.73	22.2%	13.7%	1.4%	.243	5.73	17.1%	-3.8%	63	+2.00	3.73	172	88
CJ Van Eyk R 2027 · 4.83 FIP	22	SP-	4.83	21.8%	12.7%	3.6%	.302	4.62	15.2%	5.3%	127	-0.21	2.74	347	87
Aaron Davenport R 2027 · 4.86 FIP	22	SP-	4.86	20.0%	13.2%	3.2%	.280	5.01	16.9%	5.2%	391	+0.15	4.06	498	86
Brandon Young R 2027 · 4.11 FIP	22	SP-	4.11	24.5%	12.3%	2.8%	.297	3.57	22.4%	14.1%	150	-0.54	3.13	319	86
Will Schomberg R 2028 · 4.84 FIP	23	SP-	4.84	21.4%	15.6%	2.9%	.266	3.85	23.3%	11.7%	90	-0.99	3.85	206	85
Max Bain R 2028 · 5.17 FIP	23	SP-	5.17	20.5%	15.2%	3.4%	.291	6.72	16.7%	-3.9%	81	+1.55	5.17	174	85
Daniel Eagen R 2027 · 4.14 FIP	22	SP-	4.14	25.1%	12.6%	2.9%	.263	7.80	20.3%	9.7%	12	+3.66	4.14	129	85
Jordan Foley R 2027 · 3.85 FIP	22	SP-	3.85	19.6%	12.1%	1.6%	.294	4.02	22.8%	9.3%	162	+0.17	3.21	305	85
R.J. Freure R 2027 · 5.14 FIP	22	SP-	5.14	21.7%	18.5%	2.8%	.286	5.83	21.4%	4.2%	107	+0.69	5.14	196	85
Matt Ruppenthal R 2028 · 4.51 FIP	23	SP-	4.51	19.1%	14.3%	2.2%	.290	4.25	21.4%	6.5%	143	-0.26	3.75	283	85

Contract

ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2030

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2035

First FA Year 2036

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2030	Arb-2	$0.9M	+2.9	$26M	+$25M
2031	Arb-3	$0.9M	+3.0	$28M	+$27M
2032	Ext / FA-deal	$0.9M	+2.9	$28M	+$27M
2033	Ext / FA-deal	$5M	+2.8	$28M	+$23M
2034	Ext / FA-deal	$8M	+2.7	$27M	+$20M
2035	Ext / FA-deal	$10M	+2.5	$26M	+$16M
Totals		$26M		$163M	+$137M