Wellington Aracena
P
Hillsboro Hops
Age 21
RHP
6'3" / 180 lbs
A+
Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2032
peak 1.4 · 2030
2026 ROS PROJECTION57 act + 64 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 136126vR 117
ERA5.18
FIP5.18
K%22.6%
BB%18.1%
K-BB%4.5%
ROS IP64
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 121 IP
━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control
Grades · Contract
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 17 | ROK | DSL Mets 2 | 12 | 5 | 25 | 125 | 28 | 23 | 1 | 42% | 2.1 | 15.2% | 23.0% | -7.8% | 1.1% | 6.84 | 5.34 | — |
| 2022 | 17 | ROK | DSL Mets 2 | 12 | 5 | 25 | 125 | 28 | 23 | 1 | 42% | 2.1 | 22.4% | 18.4% | 4.0% | 0.8% | 6.84 | 4.14 | — |
| 2023 | 18 | ROK | DSL Mets Blue | 11 | 10 | 43 | 182 | 46 | 23 | 3 | 91% | 3.9 | 17.2% | 15.8% | 1.4% | 3.1% | 3.77 | 5.37 | — |
| 2023 | 18 | ROK | DSL Mets Blue | 11 | 10 | 43 | 182 | 46 | 23 | 3 | 91% | 3.9 | 25.3% | 12.6% | 12.6% | 1.6% | 3.77 | 3.47 | — |
| 2024 | 19 | MIX | 2 levels | 17 | 11 | 41 | 208 | 56 | 42 | 2 | 65% | 2.4 | 18.9% | 24.7% | -5.8% | 1.7% | 7.30 | 5.55 | — |
| 2024 | 19 | MIX | 2 levels | 17 | 11 | 41 | 208 | 56 | 42 | 2 | 65% | 2.4 | 26.9% | 20.2% | 6.7% | 1.0% | 7.30 | 4.08 | — |
| 2025 | 20 | MIX | 2 levels | 23 | 14 | 92 | 376 | 114 | 51 | 0 | 61% | 4.0 | 22.6% | 15.9% | 6.7% | 0.0% | 2.25 | 3.20 | — |
| 2025 | 20 | MIX | 2 levels | 23 | 14 | 92 | 376 | 114 | 51 | 0 | 61% | 4.0 | 30.3% | 13.6% | 16.8% | 0.0% | 2.25 | 2.28 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 21 | A+ | Hillsboro Hops | 15 | 14 | 57 | 253 | 65 | 33 | 3 | 93% | 3.8 | 19.8% | 15.0% | 4.8% | 1.5% | 5.08 | 4.14 | +0.3 |
| ROS | 21 | MLB | ARI | 13 | 13 | 64 | 272 | 61 | 49 | 7 | 100% | 5.0 | 22.6% | 18.1% | 4.5% | 2.4% | 5.18 | 5.18 | -0.4 |
| ROS | 21 | MLB | ARI | — | — | 0 | — | — | — | — | — | — | 22.6% | 18.1% | 4.5% | 2.5% | 5.21 | 5.21 | — |
| 2026 TOT | 21 | MLB | ARI | — | — | 121 | 525 | 126 | 82 | 10 | — | — | 24.1% | 15.6% | 8.4% | 1.8% | 5.13 | 4.69 | +1.0 |
| 2026 FULL | 21 | MLB | ARI | — | — | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | 22.6% | 18.1% | 4.5% | 2.5% | 5.21 | 4.83 | -0.0 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 22 | MLB | ARI | 13 | 13 | 68 | 285 | 67 | 45 | 7 | 100% | 5.2 | 23.6% | 15.6% | 8.0% | 2.4% | 4.91 | 4.79 | -0.1 |
| 2028 | 23 | MLB | ARI | 13 | 13 | 70 | 296 | 72 | 42 | 7 | 100% | 5.4 | 24.3% | 14.1% | 10.2% | 2.4% | 4.67 | 4.53 | +0.2 |
| 2029 | 24 | MLB | ARI | 13 | 13 | 72 | 304 | 75 | 40 | 7 | 100% | 5.5 | 24.8% | 13.0% | 11.8% | 2.4% | 4.48 | 4.36 | +0.4 |
| 2030 | 25 | MLB | ARI | 12 | 12 | 73 | 307 | 77 | 38 | 7 | 100% | 6.1 | 25.1% | 12.4% | 12.7% | 2.4% | 4.34 | 4.25 | +0.5 |
| 2031 | 26 | MLB | ARI | 12 | 12 | 73 | 307 | 78 | 38 | 7 | 100% | 6.1 | 25.3% | 12.4% | 13.0% | 2.4% | 4.27 | 4.23 | +0.5 |
| 2032 | 27 | MLB | ARI | 12 | 12 | 72 | 303 | 77 | 38 | 7 | 100% | 6.0 | 25.3% | 12.4% | 12.9% | 2.5% | 4.27 | 4.27 | +0.4 |
| 2027 | 22 | MLB | ARI | 6 | 6 | 33 | 139 | 33 | 22 | 3 | 100% | 5.5 | 23.6% | 15.6% | 8.0% | 2.5% | 4.94 | 4.82 | -0.1 |
| 2028 | 23 | MLB | ARI | 10 | 10 | 51 | 215 | 52 | 30 | 5 | 100% | 5.1 | 24.3% | 14.1% | 10.2% | 2.5% | 4.70 | 4.56 | -0.0 |
| 2029 | 24 | MLB | ARI | 11 | 11 | 60 | 253 | 63 | 33 | 6 | 100% | 5.5 | 24.8% | 13.0% | 11.8% | 2.5% | 4.51 | 4.39 | +0.1 |
| 2030 | 25 | MLB | ARI | 11 | 11 | 64 | 270 | 68 | 34 | 7 | 100% | 5.8 | 25.1% | 12.4% | 12.7% | 2.5% | 4.37 | 4.28 | +0.3 |
| 2031 | 26 | MLB | ARI | 11 | 11 | 66 | 279 | 71 | 34 | 7 | 100% | 6.0 | 25.3% | 12.4% | 13.0% | 2.5% | 4.30 | 4.26 | +0.3 |
| 2032 | 27 | MLB | ARI | 11 | 11 | 66 | 279 | 71 | 35 | 7 | 100% | 6.0 | 25.3% | 12.4% | 12.9% | 2.5% | 4.30 | 4.30 | +0.3 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 60 | 60 | 342 | 1443 | 359 | 189 | 36 | 100% | 5.7 | 24.9% | 13.1% | 11.8% | 2.5% | 4.47 | 4.01 | +5.5 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 35 | 35 | 200 | 844 | 210 | 111 | 21 | 100% | 5.7 | 24.9% | 13.1% | 11.8% | 2.5% | 4.47 | 4.01 | +3.2 | ||
| Career | — | 78 | 54 | 257 | 1144 | 225 | 207 | 14 | 69% | 3.3 | 19.6% | 18.1% | 1.6% | 1.3% | 4.37 | 4.42 | +3.0 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 61 | 42 | 200 | 889 | 175 | 161 | 11 | 69% | 3.3 | 19.6% | 18.1% | 1.6% | 1.3% | 4.37 | 4.42 | +2.3 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Wellington Aracena (OGILVIE) | — | — | 5.18 | 22.6% | 18.1% | 2.4% | — | 4.56 | 24.2% | 10.0% | 210 | -0.62 | — | — | — |
| R.J. Freure R 2027 · 5.19 FIP | 22 | SP- | 5.19 | 21.7% | 18.5% | 2.9% | .286 | 5.88 | 21.4% | 4.2% | 107 | +0.69 | 5.19 | 196 | 85 |
| Aaron Hernandez R 2027 · 4.92 FIP | 22 | SP- | 4.92 | 18.6% | 15.7% | 2.5% | .340 | 4.59 | 20.2% | 6.4% | 111 | -0.33 | 4.45 | 194 | 84 |
| Jared Lyons R 2027 · 4.40 FIP | 22 | SP- | 4.40 | 20.1% | 15.3% | 1.9% | .345 | 3.85 | 19.6% | 10.9% | 164 | -0.55 | 3.27 | 218 | 84 |
| Gabriel Encinas R 2028 · 4.45 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.45 | 20.9% | 17.0% | 1.8% | .291 | 5.52 | 17.3% | -10.3% | 47 | +1.07 | 2.92 | 145 | 84 |
| Alonzo Tredwell R 2027 · 4.36 FIP | 22 | SP- | 4.36 | 19.3% | 17.4% | 1.2% | .336 | 4.15 | 22.0% | 9.9% | 100 | -0.21 | 4.15 | 157 | 84 |
| Alex Vallecillo R 2026 · 4.68 FIP | 21 | SP- | 4.68 | 18.6% | 16.3% | 2.0% | .277 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.47 | 152 | 83 |
| Aidan Foeller R 2028 · 4.74 FIP | 23 | SP | 4.74 | 22.7% | 19.1% | 2.1% | .309 | 4.45 | 23.4% | 12.8% | 50 | -0.29 | 4.45 | 149 | 83 |
| Hunter Parks R 2026 · 5.41 FIP | 21 | SP- | 5.41 | 18.7% | 16.8% | 3.2% | .312 | 5.36 | 17.8% | -0.6% | 163 | -0.05 | 3.51 | 278 | 82 |
| Blane Abeyta R 2027 · 4.66 FIP | 22 | SP- | 4.66 | 21.1% | 18.2% | 1.9% | .283 | 4.73 | 15.6% | 6.4% | 343 | +0.07 | 4.34 | 471 | 82 |
| Angel Rivero R 2024 · 5.06 FIP | 19 | SP- | 5.06 | 19.9% | 16.7% | 2.8% | .325 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.60 | 105 | 81 |
| James Proctor R 2028 · 4.02 FIP | 23 | SP | 4.02 | 22.0% | 15.2% | 1.6% | .277 | 4.35 | 14.0% | 1.5% | 48 | +0.33 | 4.02 | 109 | 81 |
| Kolton Curtis R 2026 · 4.29 FIP | 21 | SP | 4.29 | 19.9% | 17.4% | 1.2% | .275 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.29 | 148 | 81 |
| Jake Lyons R 2027 · 4.41 FIP | 22 | SP- | 4.41 | 21.8% | 13.9% | 2.5% | .325 | 4.72 | 19.4% | 9.2% | 105 | +0.31 | 4.31 | 174 | 81 |
| Wilian Bormie R 2027 · 5.64 FIP | 22 | SP- | 5.64 | 21.6% | 20.4% | 3.2% | .275 | 4.00 | 23.3% | 9.2% | 184 | -1.64 | 3.21 | 207 | 81 |
| Marco Jimenez R 2027 · 5.16 FIP | 22 | SP- | 5.16 | 19.6% | 17.7% | 2.7% | .372 | 4.06 | 18.3% | 6.7% | 148 | -1.10 | 3.36 | 183 | 80 |
| Wills Montgomerie R 2028 · 5.03 FIP | 23 | SP- | 5.03 | 19.3% | 19.1% | 2.1% | .275 | 4.55 | 20.1% | 6.0% | 105 | -0.48 | 4.55 | 153 | 80 |
| Jesús Palacios R 2025 · 4.92 FIP | 20 | SP- | 4.92 | 20.4% | 21.0% | 1.6% | .289 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.43 | 128 | 79 |
| Juan Nuñez R 2026 · 4.48 FIP | 21 | SP | 4.48 | 19.6% | 13.2% | 2.5% | .300 | 4.44 | 22.8% | 8.3% | 148 | -0.04 | 2.88 | 245 | 79 |
| Jimmy Endersby R 2028 · 4.20 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.20 | 20.9% | 14.1% | 2.0% | .310 | 6.03 | 16.4% | 3.7% | 225 | +1.83 | 2.73 | 357 | 79 |
| Kyle Larsen R 2026 · 5.50 FIP | 21 | SP- | 5.50 | 15.8% | 17.9% | 2.7% | .274 | 5.00 | 20.2% | 6.7% | 77 | -0.50 | 4.71 | 137 | 79 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 7 | 70 | 24.5% | 13.9% | 0.93 | 4.58 |
| Greg Holland ('21) | 6 | 45 | 25.4% | 12.3% | 0.87 | 4.03 |
| Jake Diekman ('24) | 9 | 51 | 28.6% | 13.8% | 0.91 | 4.07 |
| Fernando Rodney ('19) | 5 | 59 | 24.6% | 11.8% | 0.88 | 4.21 |
| Miguel Castro ('23) | 7 | 59 | 20.8% | 12.0% | 1.04 | 3.99 |
| Daniel Bard ('23) | 4 | 50 | 25.1% | 13.5% | 0.81 | 3.82 |
| Lucas Sims ('24) | 6 | 47 | 27.6% | 11.6% | 1.24 | 4.22 |