Wellington Aracena

Wellington Aracena P Hillsboro Hops

Age 21 RHP 6'3" / 180 lbs A+ Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2032 peak 1.9 · 2030

2026 ROS PROJECTION104 act + 5 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 135126vR 118

ERA5.34

FIP5.34

K%22.6%

BB%19.3%

K-BB%3.3%

ROS IP5

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 109 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control+$6M ctrl surplus

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

OFP—45

STUF5050

CTRL—30

CMD3035

K†5560

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2027

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2032

First FA Year 2033

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2027
2027	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	—	—	—
2028	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.3	$1M	+$0.4M
2029	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.5	$2M	+$1.0M
2030	Arb-1	$3M	+0.7	$2M	+$0.1M
2031	Arb-2	$5M	+0.8	$2M	+$0.0M (cut)
2032	Arb-3	$7M	+0.7	$2M	+$0.0M (cut)
Totals		$5M		$9M	+$1M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2022	17	ROK MLE	DSL Mets 2	12	5	25	125	28	23	1	42%	2.1	15.2%	23.0%	-7.8%	1.1%	6.84	5.34	—
2022	17	ROK RAW	DSL Mets 2	12	5	25	125	28	23	1	42%	2.1	22.4%	18.4%	4.0%	0.8%	6.84	4.14	—
2023	18	ROK MLE	DSL Mets Blue	11	10	43	182	46	23	3	91%	3.9	17.2%	15.8%	1.4%	2.7%	3.77	5.11	—
2023	18	ROK MLE	DSL Mets Blue	11	10	43	182	46	23	3	91%	3.9	17.2%	15.8%	1.4%	2.7%	3.77	5.11	—
2023	18	ROK RAW	DSL Mets Blue	11	10	43	182	46	23	3	91%	3.9	25.3%	12.6%	12.6%	1.6%	3.77	3.47	—
2024	19	MIX MLE	2 levels	17	11	41	208	56	42	2	65%	2.4	18.9%	24.7%	-5.8%	1.4%	7.30	5.43	—
2024	19	MIX MLE	2 levels	17	11	41	208	56	42	2	65%	2.4	18.9%	24.7%	-5.8%	1.4%	7.30	5.43	—
2024	19	MIX RAW	2 levels	17	11	41	208	56	42	2	65%	2.4	26.9%	20.2%	6.7%	1.0%	7.30	4.08	—
2025	20	MIX MLE	2 levels	23	14	92	376	114	51	0	61%	4.0	22.6%	15.9%	6.7%	0.0%	2.25	3.20	—
2025	20	MIX MLE	2 levels	23	14	92	376	114	51	0	61%	4.0	22.6%	15.9%	6.7%	0.0%	2.25	3.20	—
2025	20	MIX RAW	2 levels	23	14	92	376	114	51	0	61%	4.0	30.3%	13.6%	16.8%	0.0%	2.25	2.28	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	21	AA MLE	Amarillo Sod Poodles	25	22	104	463	105	59	8	88%	4.1	17.7%	14.5%	3.2%	2.1%	5.38	4.60	—
YTD	21	AA MLE	Amarillo Sod Poodles	25	22	104	463	105	59	8	88%	4.1	17.7%	14.5%	3.2%	2.1%	5.38	4.60	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	21	A+ RAW	ARI	19	16	76	337	81	43	4	84%	4.0	24.0%	12.8%	11.3%	1.2%	4.83	3.34	—
2026	21	AA RAW	ARI	6	6	27	126	24	16	4	100%	4.5	19.0%	12.7%	6.3%	3.2%	6.91	4.84	—
ROS	21	MLB MLE	ARI	1	1	5	23	5	4	1	100%	5.4	22.6%	19.3%	3.3%	2.4%	5.34	5.34	-0.0
2026 TOT	21	MLB MLE	ARI	—	—	109	486	110	63	9	—	—	22.7%	13.1%	9.6%	1.8%	5.38	4.64	+0.3
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	22	MLB MLE	ARI	21	21	107	450	106	74	11	100%	5.1	23.4%	16.4%	7.0%	2.4%	5.03	4.90	0.0
2028	23	MLB MLE	ARI	21	21	111	467	112	68	11	100%	5.3	24.1%	14.6%	9.5%	2.4%	4.76	4.61	+0.4
2029	24	MLB MLE	ARI	20	20	113	479	117	64	11	100%	5.7	24.5%	13.4%	11.1%	2.4%	4.55	4.42	+0.6
2030	25	MLB MLE	ARI	20	20	115	485	120	61	12	100%	5.7	24.8%	12.7%	12.2%	2.4%	4.40	4.30	+0.8
2031	26	MLB MLE	ARI	19	19	115	485	121	61	12	100%	6.0	25.0%	12.6%	12.4%	2.4%	4.33	4.28	+0.8
2032	27	MLB MLE	ARI	19	19	113	478	119	61	12	100%	6.0	25.0%	12.7%	12.3%	2.4%	4.32	4.32	+0.8
2033	28	MLB MLE	ARI	18	18	110	463	115	60	12	100%	6.1	24.9%	12.8%	12.0%	2.5%	4.37	4.40	+0.6
2034	29	MLB MLE	ARI	17	17	105	442	109	58	12	100%	6.2	24.6%	13.1%	11.6%	2.7%	4.47	4.53	+0.5
2035	30	MLB MLE	ARI	16	16	98	416	101	56	12	100%	6.2	24.3%	13.4%	10.9%	2.9%	4.62	4.71	+0.2
2036	31	MLB MLE	ARI	15	15	92	388	93	53	12	100%	6.1	23.9%	13.7%	10.2%	3.1%	4.80	4.91	-0.0
2037	32	MLB MLE	ARI	14	14	85	359	84	51	12	100%	6.1	23.4%	14.1%	9.3%	3.4%	5.00	5.14	-0.2
2027	22	MLB CTX	ARI	10	10	53	224	52	37	5	100%	5.3	23.4%	16.4%	7.0%	2.3%	4.96	4.83	0.0
2028	23	MLB CTX	ARI	15	15	81	342	82	50	8	100%	5.4	24.1%	14.6%	9.5%	2.3%	4.69	4.54	+0.3
2029	24	MLB CTX	ARI	17	17	94	397	97	53	9	100%	5.5	24.5%	13.4%	11.1%	2.3%	4.48	4.35	+0.5
2030	25	MLB CTX	ARI	17	17	101	426	106	54	10	100%	5.9	24.8%	12.7%	12.2%	2.3%	4.33	4.23	+0.7
2031	26	MLB CTX	ARI	18	18	105	443	111	56	10	100%	5.8	25.0%	12.6%	12.4%	2.3%	4.26	4.21	+0.8
2032	27	MLB CTX	ARI	18	18	105	443	111	56	10	100%	5.8	25.0%	12.7%	12.3%	2.3%	4.25	4.25	+0.7
2033	28	MLB CTX	ARI	17	17	103	435	108	56	10	100%	6.1	24.9%	12.8%	12.0%	2.4%	4.29	4.32	+0.6
2034	29	MLB CTX	ARI	17	17	100	422	104	55	11	100%	5.9	24.6%	13.1%	11.6%	2.5%	4.39	4.45	+0.4
2035	30	MLB CTX	ARI	16	16	94	397	96	53	11	100%	5.9	24.3%	13.4%	10.9%	2.7%	4.53	4.62	+0.2
2036	31	MLB CTX	ARI	14	14	87	367	88	50	11	100%	6.2	23.9%	13.7%	10.2%	2.9%	4.71	4.82	-0.0
2037	32	MLB CTX	ARI	14	14	81	342	80	48	11	100%	5.8	23.4%	14.1%	9.3%	3.2%	4.90	5.04	-0.2
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		172	172	1002	4233	1035	568	105	100%	5.8	24.4%	13.4%	11.0%	2.5%	4.49	4.10	+9.5
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		34	34	200	844	206	113	21	100%	5.8	24.4%	13.4%	11.0%	2.5%	4.49	4.10	+1.9
Career	—	MLE		88	62	304	1354	256	236	19	70%	3.5	18.9%	17.4%	1.5%	1.4%	4.58	4.48	+4.4
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		58	41	200	890	169	155	13	70%	3.5	18.9%	17.4%	1.5%	1.4%	4.58	4.48	+0.8

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Wellington Aracena (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.34	22.6%	19.3%	2.4%	—	4.64	24.0%	9.2%	331	-0.70	—	—	—
R.J. Freure R 2019 · 5.13 FIP	22	SP-	5.13	21.7%	18.5%	2.8%	.286	6.05	21.4%	4.2%	107	+0.92	5.13	196	87
Jared Lyons R 2023 · 4.47 FIP	22	SP-	4.47	20.1%	15.3%	2.1%	.345	4.24	18.1%	8.1%	206	-0.23	3.28	260	85
Aaron Hernandez R 2019 · 4.83 FIP	22	SP-	4.83	18.6%	15.7%	2.4%	.340	4.81	20.2%	6.4%	111	-0.02	4.65	194	85
Gabriel Encinas R 2015 · 4.26 FIP	23	SP-	4.26	20.9%	17.0%	1.4%	.291	5.46	17.3%	-10.3%	47	+1.20	2.92	145	84
Hunter Parks R 2022 · 5.17 FIP	21	SP-	5.17	18.7%	16.8%	2.8%	.312	5.23	17.7%	-0.3%	163	+0.06	4.62	298	82
Alex Vallecillo R 2023 · 4.75 FIP	21	SP-	4.75	18.6%	16.3%	2.1%	.277	—	—	—	—	—	4.51	152	82
Blane Abeyta R 2021 · 4.66 FIP	22	SP-	4.66	21.1%	18.2%	1.9%	.283	4.78	15.6%	6.4%	343	+0.12	4.24	489	81
Wills Montgomerie R 2018 · 5.10 FIP	23	SP-	5.10	19.3%	19.1%	2.2%	.275	4.51	20.1%	6.0%	105	-0.59	4.51	153	80
Jake Lyons R 2021 · 4.46 FIP	22	SP-	4.46	21.8%	13.9%	2.6%	.325	4.64	19.4%	9.2%	105	+0.18	4.13	174	80
Carlos Lagrange R 2023 · 4.34 FIP	20	SP	4.34	22.1%	15.5%	2.1%	.291	3.97	25.4%	12.1%	198	-0.37	3.66	272	80
J.P. Massey R 2023 · 4.95 FIP	23	SP	4.95	18.2%	16.0%	2.5%	.259	5.12	15.9%	0.6%	115	+0.17	4.72	195	80
Jimmy Endersby R 2021 · 4.29 FIP	23	SP-	4.29	20.9%	14.1%	2.1%	.310	5.73	16.1%	4.0%	225	+1.44	2.86	357	79
Jacob Watters R 2023 · 4.87 FIP	22	SP	4.87	18.3%	17.1%	2.1%	.319	4.38	17.0%	5.1%	81	-0.49	3.85	165	79
Daniel Corniel R 2023 · 5.15 FIP	19	SP-	5.15	20.3%	17.1%	2.9%	.364	4.37	15.7%	3.2%	140	-0.78	3.50	218	79
Juan Nuñez R 2022 · 4.49 FIP	21	SP	4.49	19.6%	13.2%	2.5%	.300	4.42	22.8%	8.3%	148	-0.07	2.88	245	79
Tanner McDougal R 2023 · 4.96 FIP	20	SP	4.96	19.7%	16.9%	2.5%	.285	4.86	21.2%	7.8%	249	-0.10	3.82	319	79
Nolan DeVos R 2023 · 4.21 FIP	22	SP-	4.21	21.1%	14.0%	2.0%	.302	5.66	19.0%	8.3%	111	+1.45	4.21	210	79
Marco Jimenez R 2022 · 5.27 FIP	22	SP-	5.27	19.6%	17.7%	2.9%	.372	3.89	18.3%	6.7%	148	-1.38	3.36	183	78
Francisco Morales R 2021 · 4.70 FIP	21	SP	4.70	22.8%	16.9%	2.5%	.311	4.45	24.9%	5.2%	97	-0.25	3.88	318	78
Luis Hernandez R 2022 · 4.94 FIP	21	SP	4.94	16.7%	14.0%	2.7%	.311	5.62	21.4%	4.1%	64	+0.68	4.09	109	78

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	6.1	102	24.3%	13.9%	1.01	4.63
Chad Kuhl ('24)	3.3	84	20.0%	10.4%	1.31	4.98
Vince Velasquez ('23)	3.8	85	24.9%	9.3%	1.48	4.88
Tyler Chatwood ('21)	2.6	104	19.2%	13.3%	0.94	4.48
Touki Toussaint ('24)	1.4	40	23.1%	14.1%	1.25	5.39
Aaron Sanchez ('22)	3.3	93	18.1%	10.0%	0.98	4.32
Jon Gray ('24)	6.1	122	23.4%	7.8%	1.15	4.45