Wellington Aracena

P Hillsboro Hops

Age 22 RHP 6'3" / 180 lbs A+ Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2033 peak 0.8 · 2030

Overview

A+PROSPECTMiLBFA 2034

OGV OFP40OGV rank#310ETA2028MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	19	MIX2 levels	17	11	41	7.30	4.08	26.9%	20.2%	—	K 18.9% · BB 24.7% · FIP 5.43
2025	20	MIX2 levels	23	14	92	2.25	2.28	30.3%	13.6%	—	K 22.6% · BB 15.9% · FIP 3.20
2026	21	MIX2 levels	25	22	104	5.38	3.78	22.7%	12.7%	—	K 17.7% · BB 14.5% · FIP 4.60
2027PROJ	22	MLBARI	1	1	1	5.41	5.41	19.7%	17.3%	-0.0
2028PROJ49% MLB	23	MLBARI	11	11	61	5.04	4.92	21.2%	15.0%	0.3
2029PROJ70% MLB	24	MLBARI	15	15	86	4.80	4.67	22.0%	13.6%	0.6

Next 3 projected WAR 0.9Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2033Service0.0First FA2034

2027MiLB2028Pre-Arb$0.8M2029Pre-Arb$0.8M2030Pre-Arb$0.8M2031Arb-1$2M2032Arb-2$3M2033Arb-3$3M

Career WAR0.0 WAR median (P10 -0.5 / P90 9.5, comp-based) · star 2% · didn't stick 81%

CompsGabriel Encinas (age 23) · R.J. Freure (age 22) · Jimmy Endersby (age 23)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 136128vR 120

ERA5.41

FIP5.41

K%19.7%

BB%17.3%

K-BB%2.4%

Proj IP124

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 124 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control+$18M ctrl surplus

Contract

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2028

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2033

First FA Year 2034

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2028
2028	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.3	$1M	+$0.4M
2029	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.6	$2M	+$1M
2030	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.6	$2M	+$1M
2031	Arb-1	$2M	+0.7	$2M	+$1M
2032	Arb-2	$3M	+0.7	$2M	+$0.3M
2033	Arb-3	$3M	+0.6	$2M	+$0.0M (cut)
Totals		$7M		$11M	+$4M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2022	17	ROK MLE	DSL Mets 2	12	5	25	125	28	23	1	42%	2.1	15.2%	23.0%	-7.8%	1.1%	6.84	5.34	—
2022	17	ROK RAW	DSL Mets 2	12	5	25	125	28	23	1	42%	2.1	22.4%	18.4%	4.0%	0.8%	6.84	4.14	—
2023	18	ROK MLE	DSL Mets Blue	11	10	43	182	46	23	3	91%	3.9	17.2%	15.8%	1.4%	2.7%	3.77	5.11	—
2023	18	ROK RAW	DSL Mets Blue	11	10	43	182	46	23	3	91%	3.9	25.3%	12.6%	12.6%	1.6%	3.77	3.47	—
2024	19	MIX MLE	2 levels	17	11	41	208	56	42	2	65%	2.4	18.9%	24.7%	-5.8%	1.4%	7.30	5.43	—
2024	19	MIX MLE	2 levels	17	11	41	208	56	42	2	65%	2.4	18.9%	24.7%	-5.8%	1.4%	7.30	5.43	—
2024	19	MIX RAW	2 levels	17	11	41	208	56	42	2	65%	2.4	26.9%	20.2%	6.7%	1.0%	7.30	4.08	—
2025	20	MIX MLE	2 levels	23	14	92	376	114	51	0	61%	4.0	22.6%	15.9%	6.7%	0.0%	2.25	3.20	—
2025	20	MIX MLE	2 levels	23	14	92	376	114	51	0	61%	4.0	22.6%	15.9%	6.7%	0.0%	2.25	3.20	—
2025	20	MIX RAW	2 levels	23	14	92	376	114	51	0	61%	4.0	30.3%	13.6%	16.8%	0.0%	2.25	2.28	—
2026	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	25	22	104	463	105	59	8	88%	4.1	17.7%	14.5%	3.2%	2.1%	5.38	4.60	—
2026	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	25	22	104	463	105	59	8	88%	4.1	17.7%	14.5%	3.2%	2.1%	5.38	4.60	—
2026	21	MIX RAW	2 levels	25	22	104	463	105	59	8	88%	4.1	22.7%	12.7%	9.9%	1.7%	5.38	3.78	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	22	MLB	ARI	1	1	1	4	1	1	0	100%	1.0	19.7%	17.3%	2.4%	2.6%	5.41	5.41	-0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	23	MLB MLE	ARI	23	23	124	522	111	79	13	100%	5.4	21.2%	15.0%	6.2%	2.6%	5.12	5.00	+0.6
2029	24	MLB MLE	ARI	22	22	124	522	115	71	13	100%	5.6	22.0%	13.6%	8.5%	2.6%	4.88	4.75	+0.9
2030	25	MLB MLE	ARI	15	15	87	366	82	47	9	100%	5.8	22.5%	12.7%	9.8%	2.6%	4.70	4.60	+0.8
2031	26	MLB MLE	ARI	14	14	86	363	82	46	9	100%	6.1	22.7%	12.5%	10.1%	2.6%	4.62	4.57	+0.8
2032	27	MLB MLE	ARI	14	14	84	353	80	45	9	100%	6.0	22.7%	12.6%	10.1%	2.6%	4.61	4.61	+0.8
2033	28	MLB MLE	ARI	13	13	80	337	76	43	9	100%	6.1	22.6%	12.8%	9.8%	2.7%	4.66	4.69	+0.7
2034	29	MLB MLE	ARI	12	12	74	314	70	41	9	100%	6.2	22.3%	13.0%	9.3%	2.9%	4.76	4.83	+0.5
2035	30	MLB MLE	ARI	11	11	68	286	63	38	9	100%	6.2	22.0%	13.3%	8.7%	3.1%	4.91	5.00	+0.3
2036	31	MLB MLE	ARI	10	10	61	258	56	35	9	100%	6.1	21.6%	13.7%	7.9%	3.3%	5.09	5.20	+0.1
2028	23	MLB CTX	ARI	11	11	61	258	55	39	6	100%	5.5	21.2%	15.0%	6.2%	2.4%	5.04	4.92	+0.3
2029	24	MLB CTX	ARI	15	15	86	363	80	49	9	100%	5.7	22.0%	13.6%	8.5%	2.4%	4.80	4.67	+0.6
2030	25	MLB CTX	ARI	12	12	70	296	66	38	7	100%	5.8	22.5%	12.7%	9.8%	2.4%	4.62	4.52	+0.6
2031	26	MLB CTX	ARI	12	12	75	317	72	40	8	100%	6.2	22.7%	12.5%	10.1%	2.4%	4.54	4.49	+0.7
2032	27	MLB CTX	ARI	13	13	76	321	73	40	8	100%	5.8	22.7%	12.6%	10.1%	2.5%	4.53	4.53	+0.7
2033	28	MLB CTX	ARI	12	12	73	308	70	39	8	100%	6.1	22.6%	12.8%	9.8%	2.6%	4.58	4.61	+0.6
2034	29	MLB CTX	ARI	12	12	69	291	65	38	8	100%	5.8	22.3%	13.0%	9.3%	2.7%	4.67	4.74	+0.5
2035	30	MLB CTX	ARI	10	10	63	266	58	35	8	100%	6.3	22.0%	13.3%	8.7%	2.9%	4.82	4.91	+0.3
2036	31	MLB CTX	ARI	10	10	58	245	53	33	8	100%	5.8	21.6%	13.7%	7.9%	3.1%	4.99	5.10	+0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		108	108	633	2672	593	353	70	100%	5.9	22.2%	13.2%	9.0%	2.6%	4.72	4.33	+8.0
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		34	34	200	844	187	112	22	100%	5.9	22.2%	13.2%	9.0%	2.6%	4.72	4.33	+2.5
Career	—	MLE		88	62	304	1354	256	236	19	70%	3.5	18.9%	17.4%	1.5%	1.4%	4.58	4.48	+5.5
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		58	41	200	890	169	155	13	70%	3.5	18.9%	17.4%	1.5%	1.4%	4.58	4.48	+1.4

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 A+Hillsboro Hops · 76 IPFIP 3.34 → 4.21 (+0.87)K% 24.0% → 18.5%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	24.04%	—	×0.770	18.51%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	12.76%	—	×1.150	14.67%
HR / BF /BF	1.19%	÷1.000	×1.250	1.48%

Factors used: pitcher A+ level factors — K ×0.77, BB ×1.15, HR ×1.25. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 3.34 → 4.21, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2026 AAAmarillo Sod Poodles · 27 IPFIP 4.84 → 5.66 (+0.81)K% 19.0% → 15.4%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	19.05%	—	×0.810	15.43%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	12.70%	—	×1.100	13.97%
HR / BF /BF	3.17%	÷1.000	×1.200	3.81%

Factors used: pitcher AA level factors — K ×0.81, BB ×1.10, HR ×1.20. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 4.84 → 5.66, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 ADelmarva Shorebirds · 69 IPFIP 2.02 → 3.01 (+0.99)K% 31.9% → 23.6%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	31.91%	—	×0.740	23.62%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	12.77%	—	×1.180	15.06%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷0.899	×1.300	0.00%

Factors used: pitcher A level factors — K ×0.74, BB ×1.18, HR ×1.30. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 80).

Result: FIP 2.02 → 3.01, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 A+Aberdeen IronBirds · 23 IPFIP 2.97 → 3.76 (+0.80)K% 25.5% → 19.7%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	25.53%	—	×0.770	19.66%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	15.96%	—	×1.150	18.35%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷1.229	×1.250	0.00%

Result: FIP 2.97 → 3.76, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 ROKFCL Mets · 27 IPFIP 3.68 → 5.16 (+1.48)K% 26.1% → 17.7%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	26.09%	—	×0.680	17.74%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	18.84%	—	×1.250	23.55%
HR / BF /BF	0.72%	÷0.974	×1.400	1.04%

Factors used: pitcher ROK level factors — K ×0.68, BB ×1.25, HR ×1.40. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 95).

Result: FIP 3.68 → 5.16, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 ASt. Lucie Mets · 13 IPFIP 4.37 → 5.96 (+1.60)K% 28.6% → 21.1%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	28.57%	—	×0.740	21.14%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	22.86%	—	×1.180	26.97%
HR / BF /BF	1.43%	÷0.826	×1.300	2.25%

Result: FIP 4.37 → 5.96, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 ROKDSL Mets Blue · 43 IPFIP 3.47 → 5.11 (+1.64)K% 25.3% → 17.2%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	25.27%	—	×0.680	17.19%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	12.64%	—	×1.250	15.80%
HR / BF /BF	1.65%	÷0.868	×1.400	2.66%

Result: FIP 3.47 → 5.11, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 ROKDSL Mets 2 · 25 IPFIP 3.98 → 5.34 (+1.36)K% 22.4% → 15.2%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	22.40%	—	×0.680	15.23%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	18.40%	—	×1.250	23.00%
HR / BF /BF	0.80%	÷1.000	×1.400	1.12%

Result: FIP 3.98 → 5.34, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Wellington Aracena (OGILVIE)	—	—	—	—	—	2.6%	—	4.80	21.8%	7.9%	334	-0.61	—	—	—
Gabriel Encinas R 2015 · 4.26 FIP	23	SP-	4.26	20.9%	17.0%	1.4%	.291	5.46	17.3%	-10.3%	47	+1.20	2.92	145	87
R.J. Freure R 2019 · 5.13 FIP	22	SP-	5.13	21.7%	18.5%	2.8%	.286	6.05	21.4%	4.2%	107	+0.92	5.13	196	84
Jimmy Endersby R 2021 · 4.29 FIP	23	SP-	4.29	20.9%	14.1%	2.1%	.310	5.71	16.3%	4.2%	225	+1.42	2.86	357	83
Aaron Hernandez R 2019 · 4.83 FIP	22	SP-	4.83	18.6%	15.7%	2.4%	.340	4.81	20.2%	6.4%	111	-0.02	4.65	194	81
Kyle Bradish R 2019 · 4.56 FIP	22	SP-	4.56	20.8%	13.7%	2.7%	.309	3.84	24.1%	14.7%	238	-0.72	2.20	750	81
Matt Ruppenthal R 2019 · 4.50 FIP	23	SP-	4.50	19.1%	14.3%	2.2%	.290	4.32	21.4%	6.5%	143	-0.18	3.74	283	81
Cobi Johnson R 2019 · 5.52 FIP	23	SP-	5.52	16.0%	14.8%	3.5%	.257	4.54	19.9%	1.4%	41	-0.98	4.54	140	81
Kyle Johnston R 2018 · 4.52 FIP	22	SP-	4.52	16.2%	13.8%	1.9%	.290	4.10	16.4%	4.5%	194	-0.42	3.80	395	80
Chase Cohen R 2019 · 4.69 FIP	22	SP-	4.69	15.8%	13.0%	2.3%	.317	4.22	22.1%	9.2%	85	-0.47	3.52	263	80
Zach Fruit R 2024 · 4.29 FIP	24	SP	4.29	19.3%	14.1%	1.9%	.258	5.03	15.4%	-0.2%	44	+0.74	4.29	151	80
J.P. Massey R 2023 · 4.95 FIP	23	SP	4.95	18.2%	16.0%	2.5%	.259	5.12	15.9%	0.6%	115	+0.17	4.72	195	80
Jacob Watters R 2023 · 4.87 FIP	22	SP	4.87	18.3%	17.1%	2.1%	.319	4.38	17.0%	5.1%	81	-0.49	3.85	165	79
J.P. France R 2019 · 5.32 FIP	24	SP-	5.32	17.9%	13.9%	3.6%	.285	4.24	26.3%	15.2%	225	-1.08	4.04	577	79
Jason Savacool R 2024 · 4.83 FIP	22	SP-	4.83	14.9%	14.1%	2.2%	.275	4.88	17.2%	4.6%	128	+0.05	4.26	225	79
Jacob Meador R 2024 · 5.34 FIP	23	SP-	5.34	15.6%	14.0%	3.2%	.301	6.73	14.7%	-6.6%	50	+1.39	5.34	139	79
Carlos Hernandez R 2016 · 4.32 FIP	22	SP	4.32	17.4%	15.7%	1.3%	.276	—	—	—	—	—	4.32	123	78
Kolton Curtis R 2024 · 4.91 FIP	20	SP-	4.91	17.2%	14.4%	2.6%	.236	4.41	19.9%	2.5%	66	-0.50	4.41	148	78
Garrett Cave R 2018 · 4.99 FIP	22	SP	4.99	16.4%	14.9%	2.5%	.301	4.97	17.8%	-8.8%	40	-0.02	4.97	156	78
Ike Buxton R 2023 · 4.67 FIP	23	SP-	4.67	16.8%	15.2%	1.9%	.241	4.64	14.8%	-0.6%	123	-0.03	4.45	196	77
James McArthur R 2019 · 5.04 FIP	22	SP-	5.04	18.8%	15.5%	2.9%	.304	4.41	20.0%	10.7%	131	-0.63	3.48	352	77

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 2,161 pitcher careers (1,251 from 1990-2025 + 910 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	4.6	91	21.8%	13.9%	1.05	4.91
Tim Conroy ('78-'87, -3 WAR*)	2.3	78	20.8%*	13.6%*	1.12*	5.23*
Doug Capilla ('76-'81, 1 WAR*)	1.5	73	20.1%*	13.5%*	0.98*	4.78*
Bob Gibson ('83-'87, -0 WAR*)	1.3	67	20.4%*	14.0%*	1.14*	4.52*
Rob Tejeda ('05-'11, 3 WAR*)	2.2	74	21.8%*	12.6%*	1.00*	4.23*
Robinson Tejeda ('11)	2.2	74	19.1%	12.6%	0.96	4.42
Jonathan Sánchez ('13)	3.9	112	22.8%	12.5%	1.04	4.70