Kyle Johnston — OGILVIE

Kyle Johnston P Albuquerque Isotopes

+0.1 WAR

Age 30 RHP 5'11" / 218 lbs AAA peak 0.1 · 2026

ERA4.55

FIP4.55

xFIP—

SIERA—

K%22.5%

BB%10.2%

K-BB%12.3%

IP30

trajectory · 10 yrs

0.1peak

2026

K†5555

Career (MLE) + Projections

Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	K%	BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
2017	21	ROK	GCL Nationals	1	0	2	6	1	2	0	—	—	—	0.00	—	—
2018	22	A+	Potomac Nationals	28	16	103	446	96	53	7	16.2%	13.8%	1.9%	4.12	4.52	+0.9
2019	23	A+	Dunedin Blue Jays	26	24	125	529	113	57	9	16.4%	12.4%	1.7%	4.98	4.23	+1.5
2021	25	AAA	Buffalo Bisons	35	9	69	279	55	28	3	16.3%	11.0%	1.2%	1.57	3.80	+1.0
2022	26	AAA	Buffalo Bisons	49	0	63	290	60	30	8	18.2%	10.9%	3.2%	5.46	4.69	+0.2
2023	27	AAA	Albuquerque Isotopes	29	3	38	186	34	32	7	15.8%	17.0%	4.2%	6.57	6.21	-0.5
▸ 2026 Season
2026	30	MLB	COL	30	—	30	125	28	13	4	22.5%	10.2%	3.1%	4.55	4.55	+0.1
▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging
2027	31	MLB	COL	29	—	29	121	27	12	4	22.3%	10.2%	3.1%	4.57	4.60	+0.1
▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected)
Career	—			168	52	399	1736	288	223	38	16.6%	12.8%	2.2%	4.37	4.53	+3.5
/ 200 IP	—			84	26	200	869	144	112	19	16.6%	12.8%	2.2%	4.37	4.53	+1.7

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Kyle Johnston (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.55	22.5%	10.2%	3.1%	—	4.60	22.3%	12.1%	29	+0.05	—	—	—
Fernando Nieve R 2029 · 4.26 FIP	33	SU	4.26	22.0%	10.5%	3.1%	.290	2.44	26.9%	22.6%	89	-1.82	1.94	112	94
Wirfin Obispo R 2026 · 4.83 FIP	30	SU	4.83	18.6%	12.2%	3.2%	.292	1.31	28.6%	24.5%	126	-3.52	1.30	218	84
David Hernandez R 2026 · 4.62 FIP	30	SU	4.62	22.9%	7.6%	4.5%	.287	3.18	24.9%	18.4%	192	-1.44	2.56	268	84
Ryan Cook R 2027 · 3.85 FIP	31	SW	3.85	25.1%	10.8%	2.7%	.280	—	—	—	—	—	3.85	102	83
Esteban Haro R 2026 · 4.58 FIP	30	SU	4.58	17.1%	10.2%	3.0%	.338	3.79	11.6%	6.3%	75	-0.79	3.73	164	81
Dustin Molleken R 2026 · 3.72 FIP	30	SW	3.72	20.4%	11.7%	1.6%	.287	3.88	20.6%	8.4%	77	+0.16	3.38	129	80
Jonathan Broxton R 2027 · 3.73 FIP	31	SW	3.73	24.5%	8.2%	3.0%	.325	3.80	21.7%	13.5%	76	+0.07	3.65	137	80
Logan Kensing R 2029 · 3.61 FIP	33	SU	3.61	17.6%	8.8%	1.6%	.270	3.06	17.9%	10.0%	124	-0.55	2.72	172	79
Erik Davis R 2026 · 4.24 FIP	30	SW	4.24	22.2%	11.1%	2.9%	.349	3.54	17.4%	8.5%	65	-0.70	3.05	227	79
Carlos Fisher R 2028 · 3.45 FIP	32	SW	3.45	22.6%	11.6%	1.4%	.236	3.18	22.5%	11.1%	91	-0.27	2.48	147	79
Jose Manuel Lopez R 2026 · 5.16 FIP	30	SU	5.16	18.6%	7.6%	4.9%	.373	3.54	18.5%	9.3%	93	-1.62	3.45	170	78
Kevin Jepsen R 2027 · 3.46 FIP	31	SW	3.46	20.7%	9.1%	1.7%	.241	5.68	16.9%	7.2%	90	+2.22	3.46	160	78
Andrew Robinson R 2025 · 4.33 FIP	29	SU	4.33	23.4%	8.8%	3.8%	.245	—	—	—	—	—	3.25	160	78
Adam Warren R 2026 · 3.56 FIP	30	SW	3.56	23.3%	8.5%	2.5%	.288	4.73	20.6%	9.9%	86	+1.17	2.72	392	78
Jhan Mariñez R 2025 · 4.10 FIP	29	SU	4.10	21.2%	7.9%	3.2%	.331	—	—	—	—	—	3.18	253	78
Javy Guerra R 2026 · 4.30 FIP	30	SW	4.30	21.3%	13.9%	2.3%	.303	3.87	19.5%	13.0%	193	-0.43	3.01	260	78
Danny Farquhar R 2026 · 3.62 FIP	30	SW	3.62	22.3%	11.0%	1.8%	.247	—	—	—	—	—	3.62	224	77
Daniel Hudson R 2026 · 4.06 FIP	30	SW	4.06	24.4%	11.8%	2.8%	.301	3.94	24.1%	15.2%	140	-0.12	1.69	468	77
Louis Coleman R 2026 · 3.98 FIP	30	SU	3.98	21.3%	10.4%	2.5%	.288	3.64	22.0%	10.9%	144	-0.34	3.10	256	77
Alexi Ogando R 2027 · 5.21 FIP	31	SW	5.21	19.1%	9.4%	4.6%	.253	3.95	17.2%	8.0%	67	-1.26	3.80	132	77

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.