Jacob Watters — OGILVIE

Jacob Watters P Montgomery Biscuits

Age 25 RHP 6'4" / 230 lbs AA peak 0.3 · 2027

2026 ROS PROJECTION0 act + 2 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 130122vR 114

ERA5.11

FIP5.11

K%19.1%

BB%12.5%

K-BB%6.6%

ROS IP2

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 2 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†4550

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2022	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	3	2	4	19	3	4	0	67%	1.3	15.8%	21.1%	-5.3%	0.0%	0.00	4.43	—
2022	21	MIX RAW	2 levels	3	2	4	19	3	4	0	67%	1.3	15.8%	21.1%	-5.3%	0.0%	0.00	4.60	—
2023	22	A+ MLE	Lansing Lugnuts	22	21	84	396	94	59	8	95%	3.8	18.3%	17.1%	1.1%	2.1%	6.62	4.87	—
2023	22	A+ MLE	Lansing Lugnuts	22	21	84	396	94	59	8	95%	3.8	18.3%	17.1%	1.1%	2.1%	6.62	4.87	—
2023	22	A+ RAW	Lansing Lugnuts	22	21	84	396	94	59	8	95%	3.8	23.7%	14.9%	8.8%	2.0%	6.62	4.20	—
2024	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	18	10	64	284	56	33	2	56%	3.5	16.0%	12.0%	4.1%	1.1%	5.23	3.85	—
2024	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	18	10	64	284	56	33	2	56%	3.5	16.0%	12.0%	4.1%	1.1%	5.23	3.85	—
2024	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	18	10	64	284	56	33	2	56%	3.5	19.7%	11.6%	8.1%	0.7%	5.23	3.30	—
2025	24	AA MLE	Montgomery Biscuits	6	6	20	93	23	10	4	100%	3.4	20.0%	11.8%	8.2%	5.6%	4.87	5.98	—
2025	24	AA MLE	Montgomery Biscuits	6	6	20	93	23	10	4	100%	3.4	20.0%	11.8%	8.2%	5.6%	4.87	5.98	—
2025	24	AA RAW	Montgomery Biscuits	6	6	20	93	23	10	4	100%	3.4	24.7%	10.8%	14.0%	4.3%	4.87	4.87	—
▸ 2026 season — projected remainder (no 2026 stats recorded)
2026	25	MLB	TB	1	1	2	8	2	1	0	100%	2.0	19.1%	12.5%	6.6%	3.0%	5.11	5.11	-0.0
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	26	MLB MLE	TB	10	10	57	242	48	29	7	100%	5.7	20.0%	12.2%	7.9%	3.0%	5.01	4.99	-0.1
2028	27	MLB MLE	TB	9	9	56	238	48	29	7	100%	6.3	20.3%	12.0%	8.2%	3.1%	4.97	4.98	-0.1
2029	28	MLB MLE	TB	9	9	55	231	47	28	7	100%	6.1	20.3%	12.0%	8.3%	3.2%	4.99	5.03	-0.1
2027	26	MLB CTX	TB	4	4	25	106	21	13	3	100%	6.2	20.0%	12.2%	7.9%	3.0%	5.01	4.99	-0.0
2028	27	MLB CTX	TB	6	6	36	152	31	18	5	100%	6.0	20.3%	12.0%	8.2%	3.1%	4.97	4.98	-0.0
2029	28	MLB CTX	TB	7	7	41	173	35	21	5	100%	5.9	20.3%	12.0%	8.3%	3.2%	4.99	5.03	-0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		17	17	102	431	87	52	13	100%	6.0	20.2%	12.1%	8.2%	3.1%	4.99	4.62	+0.3
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		33	33	200	844	170	102	25	100%	6.0	20.2%	12.1%	8.2%	3.1%	4.99	4.62	+0.6
Career	—	MLE		49	39	172	792	140	117	17	80%	3.5	17.6%	14.8%	2.9%	2.1%	5.74	4.63	-0.2
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		57	45	200	919	162	136	19	80%	3.5	17.6%	14.8%	2.9%	2.1%	5.74	4.63	-0.2

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Jacob Watters (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.11	19.1%	12.5%	3.0%	—	5.00	20.2%	8.1%	168	-0.11	—	—	—
Ryan Harvey R 2023 · 5.20 FIP	22	SP	5.20	16.7%	13.1%	3.4%	.294	4.50	17.0%	5.9%	87	-0.70	4.08	133	81
Brandon White R 2023 · 4.93 FIP	23	SP	4.93	16.7%	10.3%	3.5%	.264	4.07	17.4%	10.5%	280	-0.86	3.90	299	81
Jared Lyons R 2023 · 4.47 FIP	22	SP-	4.47	20.1%	15.3%	2.1%	.345	4.24	18.1%	8.1%	206	-0.23	3.28	260	78
Andrew Politi R 2021 · 5.21 FIP	25	SP-	5.21	21.0%	12.2%	4.3%	.320	4.07	22.5%	13.4%	138	-1.14	3.38	292	77
Blair Henley R 2021 · 5.02 FIP	24	SP-	5.02	20.8%	12.2%	3.9%	.450	4.53	17.5%	5.2%	170	-0.49	3.97	187	77
Burch Smith R 2017 · 3.93 FIP	27	SP	3.93	19.5%	12.6%	1.6%	.234	4.43	22.2%	10.5%	192	+0.50	3.50	382	77
Chris Kachmar R 2021 · 4.29 FIP	24	SP	4.29	16.1%	11.4%	2.0%	.309	4.61	18.4%	9.4%	172	+0.32	4.29	360	77
David Lebron R 2019 · 4.28 FIP	25	SP-	4.28	18.6%	14.2%	1.7%	.336	5.56	26.7%	12.0%	62	+1.28	4.28	144	76
Michael Knorr R 2023 · 4.30 FIP	23	SP-	4.30	23.6%	11.1%	3.3%	.312	5.18	21.7%	9.2%	123	+0.88	4.30	181	76
Stolmy Pimentel R 2015 · 4.47 FIP	25	SP-	4.47	16.0%	10.5%	2.5%	.338	3.87	13.6%	3.1%	72	-0.60	3.87	143	76
Jake Lee R 2019 · 4.65 FIP	24	SP-	4.65	25.7%	12.4%	3.9%	.296	3.52	18.7%	10.3%	40	-1.13	2.78	181	75
Jared Karros R 2023 · 4.77 FIP	22	SP	4.77	19.0%	8.9%	3.9%	.290	5.26	17.8%	8.3%	120	+0.49	3.36	191	75
Luis Quiñones R 2022 · 4.77 FIP	25	SP	4.77	23.5%	17.5%	2.6%	.289	4.83	22.0%	10.4%	160	+0.06	3.75	326	74
Alejandro Martinez R 2015 · 4.46 FIP	26	SP-	4.46	17.5%	10.9%	2.7%	.393	4.24	9.2%	3.9%	53	-0.22	4.24	166	74
Cameron Foster R 2023 · 4.31 FIP	24	SP	4.31	18.9%	10.3%	2.7%	.329	4.05	20.9%	10.9%	132	-0.26	2.54	213	74
Noah Song R 2023 · 6.06 FIP	26	SP	6.06	12.0%	13.2%	4.2%	.239	3.84	19.6%	8.0%	114	-2.22	3.68	136	73
J.P. Massey R 2023 · 4.95 FIP	23	SP	4.95	18.2%	16.0%	2.5%	.259	5.12	15.9%	0.6%	115	+0.17	4.72	195	73
Will Bednar R 2022 · 5.71 FIP	22	SP	5.71	20.5%	14.1%	4.7%	.173	4.78	26.6%	6.3%	95	-0.93	3.38	198	73
Carson Rudd R 2023 · 5.53 FIP	24	SP-	5.53	21.0%	13.0%	4.7%	.274	4.61	17.5%	-0.1%	110	-0.92	3.39	242	73
Sean Mooney R 2022 · 4.70 FIP	24	SP-	4.70	24.7%	13.5%	3.6%	.277	—	—	—	—	—	3.36	102	72

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.0	48	20.1%	12.1%	1.19	5.00
José Ruiz ('24)	1.3	52	22.2%	10.4%	1.41	4.41
Miguel Castro ('23)	2.1	59	20.8%	12.0%	1.04	3.99
Jacob Barnes ('24)	1.5	42	22.1%	9.6%	1.21	4.58
Amir Garrett ('23)	1.5	51	25.8%	13.4%	1.50	5.10
Roansy Contreras ('24)	1.2	77	19.5%	10.1%	1.36	4.78
Steven Brault ('21)	1.7	57	18.8%	11.3%	1.00	4.77