Jacob Watters
P Montgomery Biscuits| Year | Age | Lvl / Team | G | GS | IP | ERA | FIP | K% | BB% | WAR | MLE rates | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 22 | A+OAK | 22 | 21 | 84 | 6.62 | 4.20 | 23.7% | 14.9% | — | K 18.3% · BB 17.1% · FIP 4.87 | |
| 2024 | 23 | MIX2 levels | 18 | 10 | 64 | 5.23 | 3.30 | 19.7% | 11.6% | — | K 16.0% · BB 12.0% · FIP 3.85 | |
| 2025 | 24 | AATB | 6 | 6 | 20 | 4.87 | 4.87 | 24.7% | 10.8% | — | K 20.0% · BB 11.8% · FIP 5.98 | |
| 2026 | 25 | No MLB games played | ||||||||||
| 2027PROJ | 26 | MLBTB | — | — | 0 | 4.82 | 4.82 | 20.5% | 11.0% | — | ||
| 2028PROJ38% MLB | 27 | MLBTB | 1 | 1 | 8 | 4.79 | 4.81 | 20.8% | 10.9% | 0.1 | ||
Grades · Contract
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments) | |||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year) | |||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far) | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2022 | 21 | MIX MLE | 2 levels | 3 | 2 | 4 | 19 | 3 | 4 | 0 | 67% | 1.3 | 15.8% | 21.1% | -5.3% | 0.0% | 0.00 | 4.43 | — |
| 2022 | 21 | MIX RAW | 2 levels | 3 | 2 | 4 | 19 | 3 | 4 | 0 | 67% | 1.3 | 15.8% | 21.1% | -5.3% | 0.0% | 0.00 | 4.60 | — |
| 2023 | 22 | A+ MLE | Lansing Lugnuts | 22 | 21 | 84 | 396 | 94 | 59 | 8 | 95% | 3.8 | 18.3% | 17.1% | 1.1% | 2.1% | 6.62 | 4.87 | — |
| 2023 | 22 | A+ RAW | Lansing Lugnuts | 22 | 21 | 84 | 396 | 94 | 59 | 8 | 95% | 3.8 | 23.7% | 14.9% | 8.8% | 2.0% | 6.62 | 4.20 | — |
| 2024 | 23 | MIX MLE | 2 levels | 18 | 10 | 64 | 284 | 56 | 33 | 2 | 56% | 3.5 | 16.0% | 12.0% | 4.1% | 1.1% | 5.23 | 3.85 | — |
| 2024 | 23 | MIX MLE | 2 levels | 18 | 10 | 64 | 284 | 56 | 33 | 2 | 56% | 3.5 | 16.0% | 12.0% | 4.1% | 1.1% | 5.23 | 3.85 | — |
| 2024 | 23 | MIX RAW | 2 levels | 18 | 10 | 64 | 284 | 56 | 33 | 2 | 56% | 3.5 | 19.7% | 11.6% | 8.1% | 0.7% | 5.23 | 3.30 | — |
| 2025 | 24 | AA MLE | Montgomery Biscuits | 6 | 6 | 20 | 93 | 23 | 10 | 4 | 100% | 3.4 | 20.0% | 11.8% | 8.2% | 5.6% | 4.87 | 5.98 | — |
| 2025 | 24 | AA MLE | Montgomery Biscuits | 6 | 6 | 20 | 93 | 23 | 10 | 4 | 100% | 3.4 | 20.0% | 11.8% | 8.2% | 5.6% | 4.87 | 5.98 | — |
| 2025 | 24 | AA RAW | Montgomery Biscuits | 6 | 6 | 20 | 93 | 23 | 10 | 4 | 100% | 3.4 | 24.7% | 10.8% | 14.0% | 4.3% | 4.87 | 4.87 | — |
| ▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded) | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 26 | MLB | TB | — | — | 0 | — | — | — | — | — | — | 20.5% | 11.0% | 9.6% | 3.1% | 4.82 | 4.82 | — |
| ▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%) | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2028 | 27 | MLB MLE | TB | 3 | 3 | 20 | 84 | 18 | 9 | 3 | 100% | 6.7 | 20.8% | 10.9% | 9.9% | 3.1% | 4.79 | 4.81 | +0.1 |
| 2028 | 27 | MLB CTX | TB | 1 | 1 | 8 | 34 | 7 | 4 | 1 | 100% | 8.0 | 20.8% | 10.9% | 9.9% | 3.1% | 4.79 | 4.81 | +0.1 |
| ▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | RAW | 1 | 1 | 8 | 32 | 7 | 3 | 1 | 100% | 7.5 | 20.8% | 10.9% | 9.9% | 3.1% | 4.79 | 4.43 | +0.1 | |
| / 200 IP | — | RAW | 33 | 33 | 200 | 844 | 186 | 80 | 27 | 100% | 6.0 | 20.8% | 10.9% | 9.9% | 3.1% | 4.79 | 4.43 | +2.3 | |
| Career | — | MLE | 49 | 39 | 172 | 792 | 140 | 117 | 17 | 80% | 3.5 | 17.6% | 14.8% | 2.9% | 2.1% | 5.74 | 4.63 | +0.1 | |
| / 200 IP | — | MLE | 57 | 45 | 200 | 919 | 162 | 136 | 19 | 80% | 3.5 | 17.6% | 14.8% | 2.9% | 2.1% | 5.74 | 4.63 | +1.4 | |
How the minor-league lines were translated
One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.
2025 AAMontgomery Biscuits · 20 IPFIP 4.73 → 5.98 (+1.24)K% 24.7% → 20.0%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /BF | 24.73% | — | ×0.810 | 20.03% |
| BB% (unintentional) /BF | 10.75% | — | ×1.100 | 11.83% |
| HR / BF /BF | 4.30% | ÷0.922 | ×1.200 | 5.60% |
Factors used: pitcher AA level factors — K ×0.81, BB ×1.10, HR ×1.20. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 84).
Result: FIP 4.73 → 5.98, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2024 A+Lansing Lugnuts · 61 IPFIP 3.07 → 3.85 (+0.78)K% 20.8% → 16.0%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /BF | 20.82% | — | ×0.770 | 16.03% |
| BB% (unintentional) /BF | 10.41% | — | ×1.150 | 11.97% |
| HR / BF /BF | 0.74% | ÷0.867 | ×1.250 | 1.07% |
Factors used: pitcher A+ level factors — K ×0.77, BB ×1.15, HR ×1.25. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 73).
Result: FIP 3.07 → 3.85, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2023 A+Lansing Lugnuts · 84 IPFIP 4.09 → 4.87 (+0.78)K% 23.7% → 18.3%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /BF | 23.74% | — | ×0.770 | 18.28% |
| BB% (unintentional) /BF | 14.90% | — | ×1.150 | 17.13% |
| HR / BF /BF | 2.02% | ÷1.209 | ×1.250 | 2.09% |
Factors used: pitcher A+ level factors — K ×0.77, BB ×1.15, HR ×1.25. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 142).
Result: FIP 4.09 → 4.87, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).