Jesús Palacios
P
FCL Orioles
Age 21
RHP
6'2" / 167 lbs
ROK
peak 0.3 · 2027
2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 20 proj IP
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 121112vR 103
ERA4.51
FIP4.51
K%22.9%
BB%10.8%
K-BB%12.1%
ROS IP21
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 20 IP
Grades · Contract
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 17 | ROK | DSL BAL Orange | 8 | 6 | 13 | 65 | 9 | 13 | 0 | 75% | 1.7 | 9.4% | 25.0% | -15.6% | 0.0% | 7.42 | 5.47 | — |
| 2022 | 17 | ROK | DSL BAL Orange | 8 | 6 | 13 | 65 | 9 | 13 | 0 | 75% | 1.7 | 13.8% | 20.0% | -6.2% | 0.0% | 7.42 | 4.67 | — |
| 2023 | 18 | ROK | DSL Orioles Black | 11 | 11 | 51 | 208 | 60 | 13 | 0 | 100% | 4.6 | 19.6% | 7.8% | 11.8% | 0.0% | 1.95 | 2.43 | — |
| 2023 | 18 | ROK | DSL Orioles Black | 11 | 11 | 51 | 208 | 60 | 13 | 0 | 100% | 4.6 | 28.8% | 6.2% | 22.6% | 0.0% | 1.95 | 1.50 | — |
| 2024 | 19 | ROK | FCL Orioles | 10 | 5 | 28 | 128 | 37 | 21 | 2 | 50% | 2.8 | 19.7% | 20.5% | -0.9% | 2.2% | 5.08 | 5.25 | — |
| 2024 | 19 | ROK | FCL Orioles | 10 | 5 | 28 | 128 | 37 | 21 | 2 | 50% | 2.8 | 28.9% | 16.4% | 12.5% | 1.6% | 5.08 | 3.63 | — |
| 2025 | 20 | ROK | FCL Orioles | 11 | 7 | 36 | 173 | 52 | 29 | 2 | 64% | 3.3 | 20.4% | 21.0% | -0.5% | 1.6% | 6.50 | 4.92 | — |
| 2025 | 20 | ROK | FCL Orioles | 11 | 7 | 36 | 173 | 52 | 29 | 2 | 64% | 3.3 | 30.1% | 16.8% | 13.3% | 1.2% | 6.50 | 3.35 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 21 | MLB | BAL | 4 | 4 | 21 | 88 | 20 | 10 | 3 | 100% | 5.2 | 22.9% | 10.8% | 12.1% | 2.9% | 4.51 | 4.51 | +0.0 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 22 | MLB | BAL | 4 | 4 | 22 | 92 | 22 | 9 | 3 | 100% | 5.5 | 23.8% | 9.9% | 14.0% | 2.8% | 4.36 | 4.28 | +0.1 |
| 2027 | 22 | MLB | BAL | 2 | 2 | 11 | 46 | 11 | 5 | 1 | 100% | 5.5 | 23.8% | 9.9% | 14.0% | 2.8% | 4.36 | 4.28 | +0.0 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 2 | 2 | 11 | 45 | 11 | 4 | 1 | 100% | 5.4 | 23.8% | 9.9% | 14.0% | 2.8% | 4.36 | 3.90 | +0.1 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 39 | 39 | 200 | 844 | 204 | 74 | 19 | 100% | 5.1 | 23.8% | 9.9% | 14.0% | 2.8% | 4.36 | 3.90 | +3.5 | ||
| Career | — | 40 | 29 | 128 | 574 | 107 | 95 | 6 | 72% | 3.2 | 18.7% | 16.6% | 2.2% | 1.0% | 4.49 | 4.15 | +1.9 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 62 | 45 | 200 | 895 | 167 | 148 | 9 | 72% | 3.2 | 18.7% | 16.6% | 2.2% | 1.0% | 4.49 | 4.15 | +2.9 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Jesús Palacios (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.51 | 22.9% | 10.8% | 2.9% | — | 4.28 | 23.8% | 14.0% | 22 | -0.23 | — | — | — |
| Chad Donato R 2027 · 3.85 FIP | 22 | SP- | 3.85 | 20.9% | 11.4% | 2.0% | .333 | 3.99 | 21.4% | 12.6% | 184 | +0.14 | 2.91 | 439 | 86 |
| Gabe Bierman R 2026 · 5.08 FIP | 21 | SP- | 5.08 | 21.3% | 11.8% | 4.2% | .277 | 4.65 | 16.2% | 4.0% | 187 | -0.43 | 4.20 | 301 | 86 |
| Michael Knorr R 2028 · 4.03 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.03 | 23.6% | 11.1% | 2.8% | .312 | 5.16 | 22.3% | 9.9% | 93 | +1.13 | 4.03 | 152 | 83 |
| Hunter Gregory R 2028 · 3.98 FIP | 23 | SP- | 3.98 | 21.2% | 8.7% | 2.9% | .374 | 4.64 | 20.5% | 7.6% | 188 | +0.66 | 3.18 | 234 | 82 |
| Ryan Atkinson R 2028 · 4.58 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.58 | 18.4% | 11.3% | 2.9% | .315 | 4.53 | 21.6% | 9.0% | 305 | -0.05 | 4.07 | 338 | 81 |
| Connor Cooke R 2027 · 3.47 FIP | 22 | SP- | 3.47 | 23.7% | 8.4% | 2.4% | .350 | 4.29 | 24.6% | 10.4% | 56 | +0.82 | 2.92 | 103 | 81 |
| Noah Denoyer R 2028 · 4.45 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.45 | 21.5% | 12.1% | 3.0% | .275 | 4.09 | 25.9% | 14.9% | 121 | -0.36 | 3.05 | 181 | 81 |
| Florencio Serrano R 2026 · 3.84 FIP | 21 | SP- | 3.84 | 19.3% | 8.5% | 2.4% | .264 | 4.88 | 14.1% | 3.4% | 117 | +1.04 | 3.84 | 206 | 81 |
| Tanner Hall R 2027 · 4.56 FIP | 22 | SP- | 4.56 | 18.8% | 11.2% | 3.0% | .295 | 5.39 | 10.1% | -4.6% | 72 | +0.83 | 4.56 | 137 | 80 |
| Ray Gaither R 2029 · 4.91 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.91 | 21.9% | 13.2% | 3.6% | .314 | 4.49 | 18.6% | 4.7% | 123 | -0.42 | 4.16 | 164 | 80 |
| Miguelangel Boadas R 2026 · 3.44 FIP | 21 | SP- | 3.44 | 20.6% | 11.0% | 1.2% | .319 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.64 | 129 | 79 |
| Colin Fields R 2028 · 3.48 FIP | 23 | SP- | 3.48 | 20.5% | 10.3% | 1.5% | .246 | 4.20 | 21.6% | 12.8% | 184 | +0.72 | 3.07 | 229 | 79 |
| Casey Legumina R 2029 · 4.28 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.28 | 23.3% | 9.3% | 3.6% | .260 | 4.34 | 20.5% | 11.0% | 189 | +0.06 | 3.68 | 323 | 79 |
| Juan Nuñez R 2026 · 4.48 FIP | 21 | SP | 4.48 | 19.6% | 13.2% | 2.5% | .300 | 4.44 | 22.8% | 8.3% | 148 | -0.04 | 2.88 | 245 | 79 |
| Jimmy Kingsbury R 2027 · 4.00 FIP | 22 | SP | 4.00 | 21.9% | 9.8% | 2.7% | .175 | 4.15 | 18.0% | 7.5% | 168 | +0.15 | 3.59 | 307 | 78 |
| Andrew Quezada R 2029 · 4.35 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.35 | 18.1% | 8.1% | 3.2% | .312 | 4.78 | 14.6% | 6.1% | 291 | +0.43 | 4.25 | 412 | 78 |
| Carson Rudd R 2027 · 3.43 FIP | 22 | SP- | 3.43 | 25.4% | 10.6% | 2.1% | .351 | 5.24 | 21.6% | 5.6% | 193 | +1.81 | 3.43 | 242 | 78 |
| Robert Colina R 2026 · 4.17 FIP | 21 | SP- | 4.17 | 20.5% | 10.8% | 2.6% | .366 | 3.31 | 22.3% | 15.2% | 61 | -0.86 | 3.25 | 266 | 78 |
| Sean Sullivan R 2026 · 4.82 FIP | 21 | SP- | 4.82 | 19.9% | 9.6% | 4.0% | .298 | 4.56 | 17.0% | 8.2% | 243 | -0.26 | 4.30 | 318 | 78 |
| Grant Judkins R 2028 · 5.40 FIP | 23 | SP- | 5.40 | 21.0% | 11.2% | 4.8% | .346 | 5.85 | 16.4% | 5.4% | 150 | +0.45 | 5.40 | 322 | 78 |