Jesús Palacios — OGILVIE

Jesús Palacios P FCL Orioles

Age 22 RHP 6'2" / 167 lbs ROK peak 0.2 · 2028

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTION0 act + 20 ip · rates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 136128vR 119

ERA5.40

FIP5.40

K%22.5%

BB%17.3%

K-BB%5.2%

ROS IP20

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 20 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†5555

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2022	17	ROK MLE	DSL BAL Orange	8	6	13	65	9	13	0	75%	1.7	9.4%	25.0%	-15.6%	0.0%	7.42	5.47	—
2022	17	ROK RAW	DSL BAL Orange	8	6	13	65	9	13	0	75%	1.7	13.8%	20.0%	-6.2%	0.0%	7.42	4.67	—
2023	18	ROK MLE	DSL Orioles Black	11	11	51	208	60	13	0	100%	4.6	19.6%	7.8%	11.8%	0.0%	1.95	2.43	—
2023	18	ROK RAW	DSL Orioles Black	11	11	51	208	60	13	0	100%	4.6	28.8%	6.2%	22.6%	0.0%	1.95	1.50	—
2024	19	ROK MLE	FCL Orioles	10	5	28	128	37	21	2	50%	2.8	19.7%	20.5%	-0.9%	2.2%	5.08	5.24	—
2024	19	ROK MLE	FCL Orioles	10	5	28	128	37	21	2	50%	2.8	19.7%	20.5%	-0.9%	2.2%	5.08	5.24	—
2024	19	ROK RAW	FCL Orioles	10	5	28	128	37	21	2	50%	2.8	28.9%	16.4%	12.5%	1.6%	5.08	3.63	—
2025	20	ROK MLE	FCL Orioles	11	7	36	173	52	29	2	64%	3.3	20.4%	21.0%	-0.5%	1.6%	6.50	4.92	—
2025	20	ROK MLE	FCL Orioles	11	7	36	173	52	29	2	64%	3.3	20.4%	21.0%	-0.5%	1.6%	6.50	4.92	—
2025	20	ROK RAW	FCL Orioles	11	7	36	173	52	29	2	64%	3.3	30.1%	16.8%	13.3%	1.2%	6.50	3.35	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	22	MLB	BAL	4	4	20	84	19	15	3	100%	5.0	22.5%	17.3%	5.2%	3.0%	5.40	5.40	-0.1
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	23	MLB MLE	BAL	6	6	34	142	33	21	4	100%	5.6	23.3%	14.7%	8.6%	2.9%	5.11	4.98	-0.0
2028	23	MLB CTX	BAL	3	3	17	72	17	11	2	100%	5.7	23.3%	14.7%	8.6%	2.9%	5.11	4.98	-0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		3	3	17	70	16	10	2	100%	5.5	23.3%	14.7%	8.5%	2.9%	5.11	4.60	+0.1
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		37	37	200	844	194	121	24	100%	5.3	23.3%	14.7%	8.5%	2.9%	5.11	4.60	+0.7
Career	—	MLE		40	29	128	574	107	95	6	72%	3.2	18.7%	16.6%	2.2%	1.0%	4.49	4.15	-0.0
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		62	45	200	895	167	148	9	72%	3.2	18.7%	16.6%	2.2%	1.0%	4.49	4.15	-0.2

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Jesús Palacios (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.40	22.5%	17.3%	3.0%	—	4.98	23.3%	8.6%	34	-0.42	—	—	—
Wilian Bormie R 2023 · 5.84 FIP	22	SP-	5.84	21.6%	20.4%	3.6%	.275	4.13	23.2%	9.3%	203	-1.71	3.51	226	88
Marco Jimenez R 2022 · 5.27 FIP	22	SP-	5.27	19.6%	17.7%	2.9%	.372	3.89	18.3%	6.7%	148	-1.38	3.36	183	84
Jared Lyons R 2023 · 4.47 FIP	22	SP-	4.47	20.1%	15.3%	2.1%	.345	4.24	18.4%	8.5%	211	-0.23	3.28	265	81
Eriq Swan R 2024 · 4.85 FIP	22	SP-	4.85	19.7%	17.3%	2.2%	.371	5.28	19.7%	0.9%	109	+0.43	4.85	132	81
Blane Abeyta R 2021 · 4.66 FIP	22	SP-	4.66	21.1%	18.2%	1.9%	.283	4.78	15.6%	6.4%	343	+0.12	4.24	489	80
Ray Gaither R 2022 · 4.85 FIP	24	SP-	4.85	21.9%	13.2%	3.5%	.314	4.34	18.3%	5.8%	123	-0.51	3.84	164	80
Zach Linginfelter R 2021 · 5.53 FIP	24	SP-	5.53	19.1%	16.0%	3.7%	.295	5.01	18.8%	-0.6%	46	-0.52	3.62	109	79
Alonzo Tredwell R 2024 · 4.43 FIP	22	SP-	4.43	19.3%	17.4%	1.4%	.336	4.19	22.0%	9.9%	100	-0.24	4.19	166	79
Fernando Baez R 2015 · 6.56 FIP	23	SP-	6.56	18.6%	18.8%	4.8%	.322	4.51	26.9%	7.8%	94	-2.05	3.45	129	79
Alex Vallecillo R 2023 · 4.75 FIP	21	SP-	4.75	18.6%	16.3%	2.1%	.277	—	—	—	—	—	4.51	152	79
Wills Montgomerie R 2018 · 5.10 FIP	23	SP-	5.10	19.3%	19.1%	2.2%	.275	4.51	20.1%	6.0%	105	-0.59	4.51	153	79
Jake Lyons R 2021 · 4.46 FIP	22	SP-	4.46	21.8%	13.9%	2.6%	.325	4.64	19.4%	9.2%	105	+0.18	4.13	174	77
Aaron Hernandez R 2019 · 4.83 FIP	22	SP-	4.83	18.6%	15.7%	2.4%	.340	4.81	20.2%	6.4%	111	-0.02	4.65	194	77
Jackson Fristoe R 2023 · 6.07 FIP	22	SP-	6.07	17.0%	24.2%	2.5%	.258	6.12	15.3%	-2.9%	112	+0.05	4.81	139	77
Luis Mora R 2016 · 5.78 FIP	21	SP-	5.78	16.3%	15.4%	3.8%	.303	5.27	23.9%	1.2%	43	-0.51	3.95	119	76
Radhames Liz R 2007 · 5.07 FIP	23	SW	5.07	19.7%	18.0%	2.5%	.301	5.66	14.5%	2.3%	84	+0.59	2.81	219	76
Dane Acker R 2022 · 5.60 FIP	23	SP	5.60	19.3%	15.2%	4.0%	.284	4.39	20.2%	8.6%	215	-1.21	4.29	257	76
Jefferson Jean R 2024 · 6.45 FIP	19	SP-	6.45	18.3%	21.5%	4.0%	.311	4.79	16.9%	-0.3%	87	-1.66	4.79	132	76
Ryan Atkinson R 2016 · 4.58 FIP	23	SP-	4.58	18.4%	11.3%	2.9%	.315	4.48	21.6%	9.0%	305	-0.10	4.14	338	76
Rubén Menes R 2024 · 5.62 FIP	22	SP-	5.62	15.8%	15.2%	3.5%	.235	4.77	15.6%	2.4%	81	-0.85	3.39	112	75

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 754 reliever careers (1990-2025).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.3	27	23.0%	15.7%	1.14	5.22
Brian Bruney ('12)	1.3	43	21.2%	15.8%	0.94	4.68
John Hudek ('99)	1.0	40	23.0%	13.7%	1.30	4.43
Matt Anderson ('05)	1.3	51	19.3%	13.5%	1.05	5.19
Armando Almanza ('05)	1.1	54	24.4%	14.3%	1.43	4.82
Doug Creek ('05)	1.4	58	22.2%	15.1%	1.52	5.32
John Parrish ('10)	1.4	46	17.6%	14.8%	0.88	4.51