Grades · Contract
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | 22 | MIX | 2 levels | 17 | 10 | 55 | 249 | 71 | 35 | 4 | 59% | 3.3 | 21.1% | 18.2% | 2.9% | 1.9% | 5.37 | 4.66 | — |
| 2021 | 22 | MIX | 2 levels | 17 | 10 | 55 | 249 | 71 | 35 | 4 | 59% | 3.3 | 28.5% | 14.1% | 14.5% | 1.6% | 5.37 | 3.37 | — |
| 2022 | 23 | A+ | Hudson Valley Renegades | 23 | 20 | 105 | 472 | 88 | 52 | 6 | 87% | 4.6 | 14.4% | 12.7% | 1.7% | 1.5% | 4.47 | 4.34 | — |
| 2022 | 23 | A+ | Hudson Valley Renegades | 23 | 20 | 105 | 472 | 88 | 52 | 6 | 87% | 4.6 | 18.6% | 11.0% | 7.6% | 1.3% | 4.47 | 3.65 | — |
| 2023 | 24 | AA | Somerset Patriots | 25 | 23 | 127 | 565 | 126 | 51 | 18 | 92% | 5.1 | 18.1% | 9.9% | 8.1% | 3.6% | 5.67 | 4.80 | — |
| 2023 | 24 | AA | Somerset Patriots | 25 | 23 | 127 | 565 | 126 | 51 | 18 | 92% | 5.1 | 22.3% | 9.0% | 13.3% | 3.2% | 5.67 | 4.16 | — |
| 2024 | 25 | MIX | 2 levels | 27 | 20 | 111 | 483 | 85 | 22 | 19 | 74% | 4.1 | 14.0% | 5.1% | 8.9% | 4.5% | 4.95 | 5.03 | — |
| 2024 | 25 | MIX | 2 levels | 27 | 20 | 111 | 483 | 85 | 22 | 19 | 74% | 4.1 | 17.6% | 4.6% | 13.0% | 3.9% | 4.95 | 4.39 | — |
| 2025 | 26 | AA | Columbus Clingstones | 43 | 0 | 51 | 207 | 68 | 20 | 6 | 0% | 1.2 | 26.6% | 10.6% | 16.0% | 4.0% | 2.29 | 4.40 | — |
| 2025 | 26 | AA | Columbus Clingstones | 43 | 0 | 51 | 207 | 68 | 20 | 6 | 0% | 1.2 | 32.9% | 9.7% | 23.2% | 2.9% | 2.29 | 3.14 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 27 | AA | Columbus Clingstones | 26 | 0 | 31 | 140 | 39 | 17 | 8 | 0% | 1.2 | 22.6% | 13.4% | 9.2% | 6.9% | 5.28 | 6.65 | -0.8 |
| ROS | 27 | MLB | ATL | 140 | 0 | 147 | 621 | 139 | 47 | 22 | 0% | 1.1 | 22.4% | 7.6% | 14.8% | 3.6% | 4.53 | 4.53 | +1.5 |
| ROS | 27 | MLB | ATL | 3 | 0 | 3 | 13 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0% | 1.0 | 22.4% | 7.6% | 14.8% | 3.6% | 4.53 | 4.53 | +0.0 |
| 2026 TOT | 27 | MLB | ATL | — | — | 178 | 761 | 178 | 64 | 30 | — | — | 23.4% | 8.4% | 15.0% | 4.0% | 4.66 | 4.90 | +1.0 |
| 2026 FULL | 27 | MLB | ATL | — | — | 3 | 12 | 3 | 1 | 0 | — | — | 22.4% | 7.6% | 14.8% | 3.6% | 4.53 | 4.15 | +0.0 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 28 | MLB | ATL | 136 | 0 | 143 | 602 | 134 | 47 | 22 | 0% | 1.0 | 22.2% | 7.7% | 14.5% | 3.7% | 4.55 | 4.59 | +1.4 |
| 2028 | 29 | MLB | ATL | 130 | 0 | 136 | 575 | 126 | 46 | 22 | 0% | 1.0 | 22.0% | 8.0% | 14.0% | 3.8% | 4.62 | 4.69 | +1.1 |
| 2029 | 30 | MLB | ATL | 122 | 0 | 128 | 540 | 117 | 45 | 21 | 0% | 1.0 | 21.6% | 8.2% | 13.4% | 3.9% | 4.75 | 4.85 | +0.8 |
| 2027 | 28 | MLB | ATL | 51 | 0 | 54 | 228 | 51 | 18 | 8 | 0% | 1.1 | 22.2% | 7.7% | 14.5% | 3.7% | 4.55 | 4.59 | -0.0 |
| 2028 | 29 | MLB | ATL | 72 | 0 | 76 | 321 | 70 | 26 | 12 | 0% | 1.1 | 22.0% | 8.0% | 14.0% | 3.8% | 4.62 | 4.69 | +0.2 |
| 2029 | 30 | MLB | ATL | 83 | 0 | 87 | 367 | 79 | 30 | 14 | 0% | 1.0 | 21.6% | 8.2% | 13.4% | 3.9% | 4.75 | 4.85 | +0.3 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 209 | 0 | 219 | 927 | 203 | 74 | 35 | 0% | 1.0 | 21.9% | 8.0% | 13.9% | 3.8% | 4.65 | 4.35 | +2.7 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 190 | 0 | 200 | 844 | 185 | 67 | 32 | 0% | 1.1 | 21.9% | 8.0% | 13.9% | 3.8% | 4.65 | 4.35 | +2.5 | ||
| Career | — | 161 | 73 | 480 | 2116 | 377 | 226 | 72 | 45% | 3.0 | 17.8% | 10.7% | 7.1% | 3.4% | 4.82 | 4.82 | +3.3 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 67 | 30 | 200 | 882 | 157 | 94 | 30 | 45% | 3.0 | 17.8% | 10.7% | 7.1% | 3.4% | 4.82 | 4.82 | +1.4 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Blane Abeyta (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.53 | 22.4% | 7.6% | 3.6% | — | 4.71 | 21.9% | 14.0% | 407 | +0.18 | — | — | — |
| Roberto Gómez R 2026 · 4.13 FIP | 27 | SW | 4.13 | 18.4% | 8.9% | 2.7% | .315 | 5.25 | 13.8% | 4.9% | 18 | +1.12 | 4.13 | 115 | 77 |
| Tristan Beck R 2026 · 4.69 FIP | 27 | SW | 4.69 | 19.5% | 7.2% | 4.2% | .271 | 3.68 | 21.1% | 13.0% | 148 | -1.01 | 3.52 | 473 | 76 |
| Jose Pina R 2028 · 5.09 FIP | 29 | SW | 5.09 | 16.9% | 9.2% | 4.1% | .231 | 3.69 | 13.6% | 6.9% | 246 | -1.40 | 3.68 | 424 | 74 |
| Jordan Lyles R 2026 · 3.89 FIP | 27 | SW | 3.89 | 22.6% | 6.7% | 3.4% | .284 | 4.94 | 20.2% | 12.1% | 379 | +1.05 | 3.38 | 1,080 | 74 |
| J.P. France R 2026 · 4.64 FIP | 27 | SW | 4.64 | 24.9% | 10.9% | 4.1% | .301 | 4.41 | 18.7% | 8.6% | 205 | -0.23 | 4.11 | 563 | 73 |
| Coleman Huntley III R 2027 · 4.14 FIP | 28 | SW | 4.14 | 20.2% | 7.4% | 3.3% | .348 | 3.66 | 23.4% | 13.2% | 86 | -0.48 | 2.38 | 160 | 72 |
| Bud Norris R 2029 · 4.90 FIP | 30 | SW | 4.90 | 18.8% | 8.2% | 4.3% | .327 | 3.85 | 24.2% | 15.5% | 233 | -1.05 | 3.52 | 316 | 71 |
| Wil Jensen R 2025 · 3.41 FIP | 26 | SW | 3.41 | 22.7% | 8.4% | 2.1% | .314 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.41 | 368 | 70 |
| Derek Gordon R 2024 · 4.72 FIP | 25 | SW | 4.72 | 19.9% | 9.3% | 3.9% | .315 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.72 | 146 | 69 |
| Kolton Mahoney R 2026 · 3.59 FIP | 27 | SW | 3.59 | 19.4% | 8.8% | 1.8% | .293 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.44 | 302 | 69 |
| Jorge Reyes R 2026 · 5.25 FIP | 27 | SW | 5.25 | 15.9% | 8.5% | 4.4% | .307 | 3.44 | 14.2% | 6.2% | 129 | -1.81 | 3.32 | 227 | 68 |
| Tanner Roark R 2027 · 4.46 FIP | 28 | SW | 4.46 | 15.0% | 4.9% | 3.6% | .286 | 3.78 | 20.2% | 12.9% | 572 | -0.68 | 3.13 | 942 | 68 |
| Taylor Grover R 2025 · 4.89 FIP | 26 | SW | 4.89 | 20.0% | 10.9% | 3.8% | .320 | 4.92 | 16.2% | 8.9% | 14 | +0.03 | 3.63 | 239 | 68 |
| Joe Biagini R 2026 · 4.23 FIP | 27 | SW | 4.23 | 18.7% | 8.3% | 3.0% | .296 | 4.80 | 17.8% | 9.9% | 158 | +0.57 | 2.66 | 624 | 67 |
| Austin Pruitt R 2026 · 3.59 FIP | 27 | SW | 3.59 | 20.5% | 4.8% | 2.9% | .324 | 3.69 | 19.9% | 14.6% | 205 | +0.10 | 2.95 | 819 | 67 |
| Lisalverto Bonilla R 2026 · 4.60 FIP | 27 | SW | 4.60 | 18.2% | 10.5% | 3.1% | .304 | 4.88 | 15.8% | 3.2% | 11 | +0.28 | 3.25 | 221 | 66 |
| Noah Davis R 2026 · 3.87 FIP | 27 | SW | 3.87 | 18.9% | 9.5% | 2.1% | .368 | 4.57 | 19.3% | 8.1% | 148 | +0.70 | 3.64 | 560 | 66 |
| Nick Morreale R 2026 · 3.92 FIP | 27 | SW | 3.92 | 19.0% | 8.5% | 2.5% | .271 | 3.72 | 11.7% | -1.1% | 14 | -0.20 | 2.97 | 280 | 66 |
| Mitch Spence R 2026 · 4.51 FIP | 27 | SW | 4.51 | 18.1% | 7.1% | 3.7% | .324 | 5.24 | 16.1% | 7.8% | 74 | +0.73 | 4.09 | 738 | 66 |
| Aaron Northcraft R 2025 · 4.16 FIP | 26 | SW | 4.16 | 16.1% | 8.3% | 2.5% | .309 | 3.28 | 24.1% | 13.4% | 34 | -0.88 | 3.28 | 252 | 66 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 4 | 138 | 22.1% | 7.9% | 1.44 | 4.61 |
| Félix Hernández ('19) | 5 | 134 | 20.0% | 8.1% | 1.39 | 4.48 |
| Mike Foltynewicz ('21) | 6 | 134 | 21.4% | 7.7% | 1.46 | 4.45 |
| Marco Estrada ('19) | 5 | 142 | 19.6% | 8.3% | 1.44 | 4.33 |
| CC Sabathia ('19) CYAS×6HOF | 5 | 151 | 20.2% | 7.8% | 1.39 | 4.14 |
| Kutter Crawford ('24) | 3 | 130 | 23.9% | 7.2% | 1.45 | 4.47 |
| Jason Vargas ('19) | 4 | 116 | 18.5% | 8.2% | 1.38 | 4.57 |