Jesse Scholtens
P
Tampa Bay Rays
Age 32
RHP
6'4" / 240 lbs
MLB
peak 0.1 · 2026
ILInjured 15-Day (D15)
2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTION77 proj IP · Marcel + aging
ERA4.28
FIP4.25
xFIP3.86
SIERA3.44
K%19.3%
BB%7.4%
K-BB%11.9%
IP78
K†5050
trajectory · 10 yrs
0.1peak
2026
FB Velo
p2692.8
Whiff%
p3523.1%
K%
p4221.0%
xwOBA vs
p370.327
FB+1.4 (46%)
SL+1.4 (43%)
SI (24%)
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.4 (SP) / 4.55 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016 | 22 | A+ | Lake Elsinore Storm | 2 | 1 | 8 | 31 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 9.7% | 3.2% | 0.0% | 1.17 | 2.69 | +0.2 |
| 2017 | 23 | A+ | Lake Elsinore Storm | 25 | 24 | 147 | 612 | 123 | 32 | 12 | 15.3% | 6.1% | 2.8% | 3.60 | 4.12 | +2.2 |
| 2018 | 24 | AAA | El Paso Chihuahuas | 27 | 24 | 137 | 570 | 119 | 33 | 9 | 17.2% | 6.3% | 2.3% | 4.14 | 3.73 | +2.7 |
| 2019 | 25 | AA | Amarillo Sod Poodles | 24 | 20 | 125 | 544 | 129 | 39 | 15 | 19.2% | 7.9% | 2.0% | 5.40 | 3.56 | +2.7 |
| 2021 | 27 | AAA | El Paso Chihuahuas | 21 | 20 | 102 | 435 | 103 | 34 | 15 | 20.8% | 8.2% | 2.9% | 5.05 | 3.97 | +1.7 |
| 2022 | 28 | AAA | El Paso Chihuahuas | 37 | 15 | 83 | 362 | 92 | 29 | 13 | 22.4% | 8.4% | 3.1% | 4.10 | 3.98 | +1.0 |
| 2023 | 29 | MLB | Chicago White Sox | 35 | 20 | 132 | 569 | 103 | 42 | 24 | 17.2% | 7.5% | 3.9% | 4.99 | 4.73 | +1.0 |
| 2025 | 31 | MLB | Tampa Bay Rays | 19 | 15 | 77 | 329 | 85 | 24 | 9 | 23.0% | 7.3% | 1.9% | 4.79 | 3.13 | +1.6 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 32 | MLB | Tampa Bay Rays | 10 | 3 | 43 | 181 | 34 | 10 | 8 | 18.3% | 6.1% | 4.9% | 3.38 | 5.01 | -0.2 |
| ROS | 32 | MLB | TB | 34 | — | 34 | 142 | 28 | 11 | 5 | 19.3% | 7.4% | 3.4% | 4.28 | 4.25 | +0.1 |
| 2026 Total | 32 | MLB | TB | — | — | 76 | 323 | 62 | 21 | 13 | 19.0% | 6.3% | 4.0% | 3.77 | 4.67 | +0.2 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 33 | MLB | TB | 13 | 13 | 71 | 301 | 56 | 24 | 11 | 18.6% | 7.8% | 3.7% | 4.80 | 4.90 | -0.1 |
| 2028 | 34 | MLB | TB | 12 | 12 | 65 | 274 | 49 | 23 | 11 | 17.7% | 8.3% | 4.0% | 5.04 | 5.21 | -0.4 |
| 2029 | 35 | MLB | TB | 58 | — | 58 | 246 | 41 | 22 | 11 | 16.8% | 8.9% | 4.3% | 5.34 | 5.54 | -0.7 |
| 2030 | 36 | MLB | TB | 52 | — | 52 | 218 | 34 | 21 | 10 | 15.8% | 9.5% | 4.7% | 5.68 | 5.91 | -0.8 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 200 | 142 | 853 | 3633 | 677 | 261 | 102 | 18.6% | 7.2% | 2.8% | 4.46 | 3.98 | +14.2 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 47 | 33 | 200 | 851 | 159 | 61 | 24 | 18.6% | 7.2% | 2.8% | 4.46 | 3.98 | +3.3 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Jesse Scholtens (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.37 | 20.1% | 8.0% | 2.9% | — | 5.20 | 17.8% | 9.5% | 195 | +0.83 | — | — | — |
| Cory Gearrin R 2026 · 3.94 FIP | 32 | SW | 3.94 | 21.4% | 8.1% | 3.0% | .292 | 3.77 | 19.5% | 9.5% | 55 | -0.17 | 3.15 | 272 | 77 |
| Miguel Socolovich R 2026 · 3.60 FIP | 32 | SW | 3.60 | 20.8% | 5.6% | 2.8% | .338 | 3.59 | 18.4% | 13.7% | 42 | -0.01 | 2.60 | 283 | 76 |
| Arcenio Leon R 2026 · 3.43 FIP | 32 | SU | 3.43 | 21.4% | 8.1% | 2.0% | .314 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.03 | 115 | 76 |
| Juan Sandoval R 2028 · 3.77 FIP | 34 | SW | 3.77 | 15.4% | 6.0% | 2.2% | .294 | 3.35 | 17.4% | 8.8% | 116 | -0.42 | 3.17 | 225 | 76 |
| Craig Stammen R 2026 · 3.86 FIP | 32 | SU | 3.86 | 17.0% | 3.7% | 3.1% | .333 | 3.42 | 23.9% | 18.6% | 241 | -0.44 | 1.87 | 407 | 76 |
| Tommy Hunter R 2026 · 3.34 FIP | 32 | SW | 3.34 | 18.9% | 5.2% | 2.1% | .296 | 2.82 | 24.5% | 18.6% | 25 | -0.52 | 2.82 | 316 | 76 |
| Fernando Nieve R 2027 · 4.17 FIP | 33 | SU | 4.17 | 22.0% | 10.5% | 2.9% | .290 | 2.37 | 26.9% | 22.6% | 89 | -1.80 | 2.08 | 112 | 76 |
| Carlos Torres R 2026 · 3.19 FIP | 32 | SW | 3.19 | 19.8% | 4.9% | 2.1% | .315 | 3.74 | 20.8% | 12.4% | 206 | +0.55 | 2.78 | 326 | 75 |
| Jean Machi R 2027 · 4.50 FIP | 33 | SW | 4.50 | 16.3% | 8.6% | 3.1% | .276 | 4.06 | 18.5% | 11.9% | 128 | -0.44 | 3.92 | 186 | 75 |
| Matt Albers R 2026 · 3.18 FIP | 32 | SU | 3.18 | 18.8% | 4.7% | 1.9% | .252 | 4.51 | 20.4% | 13.3% | 147 | +1.33 | 3.15 | 244 | 75 |
| Tony Barnette R 2026 · 3.06 FIP | 32 | SW | 3.06 | 19.9% | 6.1% | 1.6% | .281 | 3.28 | 23.4% | 17.0% | 84 | +0.22 | 2.63 | 144 | 75 |
| Hector Navarro R 2029 · 4.75 FIP | 35 | SU | 4.75 | 15.0% | 5.4% | 4.1% | .281 | 2.93 | 15.2% | 9.0% | 81 | -1.82 | 2.30 | 126 | 75 |
| Jonathan Broxton R 2026 · 3.66 FIP | 32 | SW | 3.66 | 22.0% | 7.3% | 2.7% | .256 | 4.24 | 20.5% | 9.0% | 16 | +0.58 | 3.57 | 137 | 75 |
| Angel Castro R 2026 · 4.89 FIP | 32 | SW | 4.89 | 15.9% | 8.0% | 3.9% | .268 | 4.43 | 13.6% | 5.5% | 231 | -0.46 | 3.48 | 292 | 74 |
| Manny Acosta R 2029 · 3.99 FIP | 35 | SW | 3.99 | 18.1% | 9.1% | 2.3% | .273 | 3.04 | 23.2% | 9.9% | 44 | -0.95 | 3.04 | 102 | 74 |
| Fernando Salas R 2026 · 3.59 FIP | 32 | SW | 3.59 | 21.3% | 6.1% | 2.8% | .326 | 4.32 | 19.4% | 14.1% | 92 | +0.73 | 2.80 | 288 | 74 |
| Joakim Soria R 2026 · 4.31 FIP | 32 | SW | 4.31 | 23.2% | 9.2% | 3.6% | .319 | 2.62 | 28.5% | 21.7% | 186 | -1.69 | 2.01 | 380 | 74 |
| Jim Johnson R 2026 · 3.43 FIP | 32 | SW | 3.43 | 17.2% | 6.2% | 1.8% | .330 | 3.64 | 22.0% | 14.1% | 185 | +0.21 | 2.51 | 251 | 74 |
| Alex Wilson R 2026 · 5.01 FIP | 32 | SW | 5.01 | 19.4% | 6.0% | 5.1% | .269 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.40 | 326 | 73 |
| Tim Dillard R 2026 · 3.70 FIP | 32 | SW | 3.70 | 15.9% | 7.7% | 1.8% | .330 | 3.83 | 16.7% | 8.1% | 144 | +0.13 | 3.15 | 352 | 73 |
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.