Jesse Scholtens

P Tampa Bay Rays

Age 33 RHP 6'4" / 240 lbs MLB ILForty Man (40M)

Overview

MLBRP40M40-MAN

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2023	29	MIX2 levels	35	20	132	4.99	4.86	18.1%	7.4%	0.8	K 17.0% · BB 7.2% · FIP 4.82
2025	31	MIX3 levels	19	15	77	4.79	3.35	25.8%	7.3%	1.9	K 22.5% · BB 6.2% · FIP 3.34
2026	32	MIX3 levels	24	14	102	4.43	5.15	18.5%	6.4%	0.3	K 16.8% · BB 5.9% · FIP 5.44
2027PROJ	33	MLBTB	8	8	46	4.61	4.82	18.3%	5.4%	0.3
2028PROJ93% MLB	34	MLBTB	9	9	55	4.92	5.13	17.4%	5.9%	0.2
2029PROJ89% MLB	35	MLBTB	6	6	37	5.25	5.46	16.4%	6.4%	-0.0

Last 3 seasons WAR 3.0 · Next 3 projected WAR 0.4Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Skills · percentileStatcast 2026

FB Velo30

xwOBA vs21

K%19

CompsMike Burns (age 31) · Elih Villanueva (age 31) · Sergio Valenzuela (age 32)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 126118vR 110

ERA4.61

FIP4.82

K%18.3%

BB%5.4%

K-BB%12.9%

Proj IP47

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 47 IP

Statcast · Contract

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p3093.1

Whiff%

p1320.1%

p1917.7%

xwOBA vs

p210.346

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2016	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	2	1	8	31	3	1	0	50%	3.8	9.7%	3.2%	6.5%	0.0%	1.17	2.69	—
2016	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	2	1	8	31	3	1	0	50%	3.8	9.7%	3.2%	6.5%	0.0%	1.17	2.71	—
2017	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	25	24	147	612	123	32	12	96%	5.9	15.3%	6.1%	9.2%	2.6%	3.60	4.02	—
2017	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	25	24	147	612	123	32	12	96%	5.9	20.1%	5.2%	14.9%	2.0%	3.60	3.14	—
2018	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	27	24	137	570	119	33	9	89%	5.1	17.2%	6.3%	10.9%	2.0%	4.14	3.55	—
2018	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	27	24	137	570	119	33	9	89%	5.1	20.9%	5.8%	15.1%	1.6%	4.14	2.94	—
2019	25	AA MLE	Amarillo Sod Poodles	24	20	125	544	129	39	15	83%	5.2	19.2%	7.9%	11.3%	2.5%	5.40	3.84	—
2019	25	AA RAW	Amarillo Sod Poodles	24	20	125	544	129	39	15	83%	5.2	23.7%	7.2%	16.5%	2.8%	5.40	3.53	—
2021	27	AAA MLE	El Paso Chihuahuas	21	20	102	435	103	34	15	95%	4.8	20.8%	8.2%	12.6%	3.3%	5.05	4.18	—
2021	27	AAA RAW	El Paso Chihuahuas	21	20	102	435	103	34	15	95%	4.8	23.7%	7.8%	15.9%	3.4%	5.05	4.00	—
2022	28	AAA MLE	El Paso Chihuahuas	37	15	83	362	92	29	13	41%	2.3	22.4%	8.4%	14.0%	3.5%	4.10	4.18	—
2022	28	AAA RAW	El Paso Chihuahuas	37	15	83	362	92	29	13	41%	2.3	25.4%	8.0%	17.4%	3.6%	4.10	3.96	—
2023	29	MIX MLE	2 levels	35	20	132	569	103	42	24	57%	3.8	17.0%	7.2%	9.8%	4.1%	4.99	4.82	+0.9
2023	29	MIX RAW	2 levels	35	20	132	569	103	42	24	57%	3.8	18.1%	7.4%	10.7%	4.2%	4.99	4.86	+0.8
2025	31	MIX MLE	3 levels	19	15	77	329	85	24	9	79%	4.1	22.5%	6.2%	16.3%	2.5%	4.79	3.34	+1.9
2025	31	MIX MLE	3 levels	19	15	77	329	85	24	9	79%	4.1	22.5%	6.2%	16.3%	2.5%	4.79	3.34	+1.9
2025	31	MIX RAW	3 levels	19	15	77	329	85	24	9	79%	4.1	25.8%	7.3%	18.5%	2.7%	4.79	3.35	+1.9
2026	32	MIX MLE	3 levels	24	14	102	438	81	28	22	58%	4.2	16.8%	5.9%	10.9%	5.5%	4.43	5.44	-0.1
2026	32	MIX MLE	3 levels	24	14	102	438	81	28	22	58%	4.2	16.8%	5.9%	10.9%	5.5%	4.43	5.44	-0.1
2026	32	MIX RAW	3 levels	24	14	102	438	81	28	22	58%	4.2	18.5%	6.4%	12.1%	5.0%	4.43	5.15	+0.3
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			40	13	141	624	107	46	28	32%	3.5	17.1%	7.4%	9.8%	4.5%	4.98	5.14	-1.0
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	33	MLB	TB	8	8	46	194	36	10	8	100%	5.8	18.3%	5.4%	12.9%	4.0%	4.61	4.82	+0.3
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	34	MLB MLE	TB	10	10	59	247	43	15	11	100%	5.9	17.4%	5.9%	11.5%	4.3%	4.92	5.13	+0.2
2029	35	MLB MLE	TB	7	7	42	176	29	11	8	100%	6.0	16.4%	6.4%	10.0%	4.7%	5.25	5.46	-0.0
2028	34	MLB CTX	TB	9	9	55	232	40	14	10	100%	6.1	17.4%	5.9%	11.5%	4.3%	4.92	5.13	+0.2
2029	35	MLB CTX	TB	6	6	37	156	26	10	7	100%	6.2	16.4%	6.4%	10.0%	4.7%	5.25	5.46	-0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		55	28	233	1012	173	70	45	51%	4.2	17.1%	6.9%	10.2%	4.5%	5.01	4.99	+1.1
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		47	24	200	869	149	60	39	51%	4.2	17.1%	6.9%	10.2%	4.5%	5.01	4.99	+1.0
Career	—	MLE		214	153	912	3890	715	270	123	71%	4.3	18.4%	6.9%	11.4%	3.2%	4.51	4.17	+0.6
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		47	34	200	853	157	59	27	71%	4.3	18.4%	6.9%	11.4%	3.2%	4.51	4.17	+0.5

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 AAADurham Bulls · 48 IPFIP 4.78 → 5.18 (+0.40)K% 18.4% → 15.8%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	18.37%	—	×0.860	15.80%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	5.61%	—	×0.900	5.05%
HR / BF /BF	4.59%	÷1.000	×1.100	5.05%

Factors used: pitcher AAA level factors (Triple-A 2023+ robo-zone set: walks improve on promotion) — K ×0.86, BB ×0.90, HR ×1.10. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 4.78 → 5.18, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2026 ROKFCL Rays · 6 IPFIP 3.87 → 5.48 (+1.61)K% 24.2% → 16.5%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	24.24%	—	×0.680	16.48%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	9.09%	—	×1.250	11.36%
HR / BF /BF	3.03%	÷1.000	×1.400	4.24%

Factors used: pitcher ROK level factors — K ×0.68, BB ×1.25, HR ×1.40. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 3.87 → 5.48, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 AAADurham Bulls · 62 IPFIP 3.46 → 3.34 (−0.12)K% 26.2% → 22.5%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	26.15%	—	×0.860	22.49%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	6.92%	—	×0.900	6.23%
HR / BF /BF	3.08%	÷1.380	×1.100	2.45%

Result: FIP 3.46 → 3.34, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 A+Winston-Salem Dash · 7 IPFIP 2.96 → 3.46 (+0.50)K% 16.1% → 12.4%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	16.13%	—	×0.770	12.42%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	9.68%	—	×1.150	11.13%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷0.923	×1.250	0.00%

Factors used: pitcher A+ level factors — K ×0.77, BB ×1.15, HR ×1.25. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 85).

Result: FIP 2.96 → 3.46, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 AAACharlotte Knights · 47 IPFIP 4.55 → 4.63 (+0.07)K% 23.4% → 20.2%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	23.44%	—	×0.860	20.16%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	6.77%	—	×0.900	6.09%
HR / BF /BF	4.69%	÷1.152	×1.100	4.47%

Result: FIP 4.55 → 4.63, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 AAAEl Paso Chihuahuas · 83 IPFIP 3.94 → 4.18 (+0.24)K% 25.4% → 22.4%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	25.41%	—	×0.880	22.36%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	8.01%	—	×1.050	8.41%
HR / BF /BF	3.59%	÷1.138	×1.100	3.47%

Factors used: pitcher AAA level factors — K ×0.88, BB ×1.05, HR ×1.10. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 128).

Result: FIP 3.94 → 4.18, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2021 AAAEl Paso Chihuahuas · 102 IPFIP 3.98 → 4.18 (+0.20)K% 23.7% → 20.8%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	23.68%	—	×0.880	20.84%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	7.82%	—	×1.050	8.21%
HR / BF /BF	3.45%	÷1.154	×1.100	3.29%

Result: FIP 3.98 → 4.18, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2019 AAAmarillo Sod Poodles · 125 IPFIP 3.52 → 3.84 (+0.32)K% 23.7% → 19.2%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	23.71%	—	×0.810	19.21%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	7.17%	—	×1.100	7.89%
HR / BF /BF	2.76%	÷1.337	×1.200	2.48%

Factors used: pitcher AA level factors — K ×0.81, BB ×1.10, HR ×1.20. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 167).

Result: FIP 3.52 → 3.84, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Jesse Scholtens (OGILVIE)	—	—	—	—	—	4.0%	—	5.27	17.0%	10.9%	100	+0.45	—	—	—
Mike Burns R 2009 · 4.90 FIP	31	SP-	4.90	17.2%	6.6%	4.4%	.307	—	—	—	—	—	3.10	104	67
Elih Villanueva R 2017 · 5.48 FIP	31	SP	5.48	14.1%	6.0%	5.1%	.365	—	—	—	—	—	3.83	225	66
Sergio Valenzuela R 2017 · 5.66 FIP	32	SP	5.66	10.6%	6.5%	4.8%	.355	—	—	—	—	—	3.66	244	64
Yohan Pino R 2017 · 5.33 FIP	33	SP-	5.33	15.2%	3.6%	5.6%	.296	—	—	—	—	—	3.84	193	64
Thad Weber R 2017 · 5.25 FIP	32	SP-	5.25	13.2%	4.4%	4.9%	.398	—	—	—	—	—	4.40	378	64
Juan Delgadillo R 2015 · 4.54 FIP	32	SP	4.54	15.5%	7.2%	3.3%	.316	4.47	10.9%	4.7%	39	-0.07	4.47	143	63
Casey Lawrence R 2021 · 4.08 FIP	33	SP-	4.08	20.0%	5.2%	3.7%	.284	4.99	15.9%	10.6%	440	+0.91	3.57	1,374	62
Zach Neal R 2022 · 5.53 FIP	33	SP-	5.53	16.1%	5.7%	5.6%	.321	5.98	15.6%	9.6%	101	+0.45	4.24	732	61
Rolando Valdez R 2019 · 5.36 FIP	33	SP-	5.36	11.7%	7.6%	4.2%	.360	—	—	—	—	—	3.06	258	61
Austin Bibens-Dirkx R 2018 · 4.89 FIP	33	SP-	4.89	17.9%	7.6%	4.3%	.322	4.82	15.9%	9.5%	147	-0.07	3.97	567	61
Andres Ivan Meza R 2019 · 4.33 FIP	32	SP	4.33	11.7%	7.7%	2.3%	.349	—	—	—	—	—	4.14	275	60
Jarrett Grube R 2015 · 3.75 FIP	33	SP	3.75	18.7%	4.2%	3.1%	.285	4.57	17.3%	9.6%	253	+0.82	3.75	393	59
Osvaldo Fernandez R 2001 · 4.53 FIP	32	SP-	4.53	9.6%	8.2%	2.2%	.324	—	—	—	—	—	4.25	387	59
Miguel Ruiz R 2017 · 5.60 FIP	31	SP	5.60	10.6%	11.0%	3.6%	.279	—	—	—	—	—	5.60	117	58
Manuel Flores R 2019 · 4.32 FIP	33	SP	4.32	17.1%	7.4%	3.1%	.291	—	—	—	—	—	3.46	515	58
Marco Quevedo R 2019 · 5.17 FIP	32	SP-	5.17	13.6%	11.4%	3.2%	.344	—	—	—	—	—	4.13	300	58
Diego Moreno R 2019 · 4.08 FIP	32	SP	4.08	12.4%	6.9%	2.1%	.376	4.75	18.6%	9.2%	30	+0.67	2.29	187	57
Jason Simontacchi R 2007 · 4.96 FIP	33	SP	4.96	13.0%	5.9%	4.0%	.331	—	—	—	—	—	4.79	356	56
Deck McGuire R 2022 · 5.12 FIP	33	SP-	5.12	15.7%	13.1%	3.1%	.279	—	—	—	—	—	3.41	622	56
Shawn Haviland R 2017 · 5.00 FIP	31	SP-	5.00	16.3%	8.1%	4.1%	.261	—	—	—	—	—	3.69	283	56

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,234 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 480 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.4	58	17.3%	6.8%	1.70	4.95
Adam Morgan ('21)	1.8	62	20.8%	7.2%	1.58	4.80
Chuck Hartenstein ('66-'77, -1 WAR*)	1.5	59	13.7%*	7.2%*	1.50*	5.28*
Nelson Cruz ('03)	1.7	58	18.2%	7.2%	1.52	5.04
Ricky Stone ('07)	1.3	64	15.2%	8.0%	1.55	4.68
Steve Kealey ('68-'73, -1 WAR*)	1.1	54	18.5%*	7.2%*	1.32*	5.26*
Steve Shields ('85-'89, -3 WAR*)	1.1	55	17.0%*	9.0%*	1.61*	5.49*