Jesse Scholtens
P
Tampa Bay Rays
+0.7
WAR
Age 32
RHP
6'4" / 240 lbs
MLB
Svc 3.0 · Ctrl thru 2028
peak 0.6 · 2026
ERA4.68
FIP4.28
xFIP3.86
SIERA3.44
K%21.8%
BB%8.0%
K-BB%13.8%
IP78
trajectory · 10 yrs
0.6peak
2026
K†5050
FB Velo
p2692.8
Whiff%
p3523.1%
K%
p4221.0%
xwOBA vs
p370.327
FB+1.4 (47%)
SL+1.4 (44%)
SI (24%)
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016 | 22 | A+ | Lake Elsinore Storm | 2 | 1 | 8 | 31 | 3 | 1 | 0 | — | — | — | 1.17 | — | — |
| 2017 | 23 | A+ | Lake Elsinore Storm | 25 | 24 | 147 | 612 | 123 | 32 | 12 | 15.3% | 6.1% | 2.6% | 3.60 | 4.03 | +2.1 |
| 2018 | 24 | AAA | El Paso Chihuahuas | 27 | 24 | 137 | 570 | 119 | 33 | 9 | 17.2% | 6.3% | 2.0% | 4.14 | 3.55 | +2.7 |
| 2019 | 25 | AA | Amarillo Sod Poodles | 24 | 20 | 125 | 544 | 129 | 39 | 15 | 19.2% | 7.9% | 2.3% | 5.40 | 3.72 | +2.2 |
| 2021 | 27 | AAA | El Paso Chihuahuas | 21 | 20 | 102 | 435 | 103 | 34 | 15 | 20.8% | 8.2% | 3.3% | 5.05 | 4.17 | +1.3 |
| 2022 | 28 | AAA | El Paso Chihuahuas | 37 | 15 | 83 | 362 | 92 | 29 | 13 | 22.4% | 8.4% | 3.6% | 4.10 | 4.26 | +0.8 |
| 2023 | 29 | MLB | Chicago White Sox | 35 | 20 | 132 | 569 | 103 | 42 | 24 | 17.2% | 7.5% | 4.1% | 4.99 | 4.85 | +0.7 |
| 2025 | 31 | MLB | Tampa Bay Rays | 19 | 15 | 77 | 329 | 85 | 24 | 9 | 23.0% | 7.3% | 2.4% | 4.79 | 3.40 | +1.5 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 32 | MLB | Tampa Bay Rays | 3 | 1 | 15 | 53 | 11 | 3 | 0 | — | — | — | 0.00 | — | — |
| ROS | 32 | MLB | SD | 12 | 12 | 68 | 288 | 59 | 23 | 9 | 20.4% | 8.0% | 3.1% | 4.73 | 4.44 | +0.4 |
| 2026 Total | 32 | MLB | SD | — | — | 83 | 341 | 70 | 26 | 9 | 20.4% | 7.6% | 2.6% | 3.89 | 3.65 | +1.4 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 33 | MLB | SD | 14 | 14 | 74 | 314 | 61 | 26 | 9 | 19.6% | 8.2% | 2.9% | 4.54 | 4.48 | +0.5 |
| 2028 | 34 | MLB | SD | 13 | 13 | 71 | 298 | 56 | 25 | 9 | 18.9% | 8.4% | 3.0% | 4.58 | 4.61 | +0.3 |
| 2029 | 35 | MLB | SD | 12 | 12 | 66 | 281 | 51 | 24 | 9 | 18.1% | 8.6% | 3.1% | 4.69 | 4.77 | +0.2 |
| 2030 | 36 | MLB | SD | 11 | 11 | 62 | 263 | 46 | 23 | 9 | 17.3% | 8.8% | 3.3% | 4.83 | 4.93 | +0.0 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 193 | 140 | 825 | 3505 | 655 | 253 | 99 | 18.7% | 7.2% | 2.8% | 4.44 | 3.98 | +12.4 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 47 | 34 | 200 | 849 | 159 | 61 | 24 | 18.7% | 7.2% | 2.8% | 4.44 | 3.98 | +3.0 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Jesse Scholtens (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.44 | 20.4% | 8.0% | 3.1% | — | 4.61 | 18.9% | 10.5% | 211 | +0.17 | — | — | — |
| Juan Sandoval R 2028 · 3.82 FIP | 34 | SW | 3.82 | 15.4% | 6.0% | 2.3% | .294 | 3.34 | 17.4% | 8.8% | 116 | -0.48 | 3.21 | 225 | 79 |
| Jean Machi R 2027 · 4.63 FIP | 33 | SW | 4.63 | 16.3% | 8.6% | 3.3% | .276 | 4.24 | 18.5% | 11.9% | 128 | -0.39 | 4.11 | 186 | 78 |
| Angel Castro R 2026 · 4.53 FIP | 32 | SW | 4.53 | 15.9% | 8.0% | 3.2% | .268 | 4.27 | 13.6% | 5.5% | 231 | -0.26 | 3.50 | 292 | 77 |
| Tim Dillard R 2026 · 3.60 FIP | 32 | SW | 3.60 | 15.9% | 7.7% | 1.6% | .330 | 3.87 | 16.7% | 8.1% | 144 | +0.27 | 3.12 | 352 | 77 |
| Manny Acosta R 2029 · 4.09 FIP | 35 | SW | 4.09 | 18.1% | 9.1% | 2.5% | .273 | 3.07 | 23.2% | 9.9% | 44 | -1.02 | 3.07 | 102 | 77 |
| Ryan Kelly R 2025 · 4.31 FIP | 31 | SU | 4.31 | 14.7% | 7.2% | 2.8% | .307 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.49 | 131 | 77 |
| Hector Navarro R 2029 · 4.37 FIP | 35 | SU | 4.37 | 15.0% | 5.4% | 3.4% | .281 | 2.96 | 15.2% | 9.0% | 81 | -1.41 | 2.30 | 126 | 77 |
| Zack Segovia R 2026 · 4.81 FIP | 32 | SU | 4.81 | 15.0% | 8.3% | 3.5% | .314 | 3.37 | 20.2% | 14.3% | 39 | -1.44 | 3.37 | 144 | 76 |
| Arcenio Leon R 2026 · 3.52 FIP | 32 | SU | 3.52 | 21.4% | 8.1% | 2.2% | .314 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.01 | 115 | 76 |
| Tyler Sturdevant R 2025 · 4.49 FIP | 31 | SW | 4.49 | 13.5% | 6.7% | 3.1% | .300 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.47 | 149 | 76 |
| Hector Ambriz R 2026 · 3.55 FIP | 32 | SW | 3.55 | 16.0% | 6.4% | 1.8% | .273 | 6.40 | 10.4% | 2.9% | 91 | +2.85 | 3.55 | 155 | 76 |
| Logan Kensing R 2027 · 3.61 FIP | 33 | SU | 3.61 | 17.6% | 8.8% | 1.6% | .270 | 3.06 | 17.9% | 10.0% | 124 | -0.55 | 2.72 | 172 | 76 |
| Jair Jurrjens R 2025 · 4.27 FIP | 31 | SW | 4.27 | 16.3% | 7.9% | 2.8% | .335 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.27 | 125 | 75 |
| Cory Gearrin R 2026 · 4.08 FIP | 32 | SW | 4.08 | 21.4% | 8.1% | 3.2% | .292 | 3.82 | 19.5% | 9.5% | 55 | -0.26 | 3.17 | 272 | 75 |
| Fernando Nieve R 2027 · 4.26 FIP | 33 | SU | 4.26 | 22.0% | 10.5% | 3.1% | .290 | 2.44 | 26.9% | 22.6% | 89 | -1.82 | 1.94 | 112 | 75 |
| Jim Johnson R 2026 · 3.34 FIP | 32 | SW | 3.34 | 17.2% | 6.2% | 1.7% | .330 | 3.67 | 22.0% | 14.1% | 185 | +0.33 | 2.57 | 251 | 75 |
| Tommy Hunter R 2026 · 3.29 FIP | 32 | SW | 3.29 | 18.9% | 5.2% | 2.1% | .296 | 2.73 | 24.5% | 18.6% | 25 | -0.56 | 2.73 | 316 | 74 |
| Brad Brach R 2026 · 3.53 FIP | 32 | SW | 3.53 | 20.8% | 9.0% | 1.9% | .338 | 4.03 | 24.4% | 11.0% | 97 | +0.50 | 2.80 | 410 | 74 |
| Felipe Arredondo R 2026 · 4.68 FIP | 32 | SW | 4.68 | 16.2% | 7.1% | 3.7% | .272 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.93 | 337 | 74 |
| Tyler Herron R 2024 · 3.99 FIP | 30 | SW | 3.99 | 16.4% | 8.7% | 2.1% | .377 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.99 | 117 | 73 |
Contract
ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)
Status Arb-1
MLB Debut 2023
Service 3.000 yrs.days
Team Control Through 2028
First FA Year 2029
| Year | Status | Salary | Proj WAR | Value | Surplus |
| 2026 | Arb-1 | $2M | +0.6 | $2M | +$0.4M |
| 2027 | Arb-2 | $3M | +0.5 | $2M | +$0.0M (cut) |
| 2028 | Arb-3 | $3M | +0.3 | $1M | +$0.0M (cut) |
| Totals | $5M | $6M | +$0.4M | ||