Dane Acker

P Round Rock Express

Age 28 RHP 6'2" / 189 lbs AAA peak 0.1 · 2027

Overview

AAAPROSPECT

ETA2029MLB%10%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	25	AATEX	26	18	97	3.05	3.67	25.1%	9.6%	—	K 20.3% · BB 10.6% · FIP 4.34
2025	26	MIX2 levels	32	2	53	5.26	3.68	23.4%	10.9%	—	K 18.5% · BB 10.3% · FIP 4.29
2026	27	AAATEX	9	2	17	9.18	5.14	20.7%	17.1%	—	K 17.8% · BB 15.4% · FIP 5.01
2027PROJ	28	MLBTEX	1	1	6	5.09	5.09	18.3%	12.3%	0.0
2028PROJ37% MLB	29	MLBTEX	3	3	18	5.09	5.14	18.6%	12.2%	0.1
2029PROJ55% MLB	30	MLBTEX	4	4	23	5.17	5.26	18.6%	12.3%	0.0

Next 3 projected WAR 0.1Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Scouting grades · 20-80

Stuff45Control45Command45

Career WAR0.0 WAR median (P10 0.0 / P90 0.1, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 99%

CompsDennis O'Grady (age 26) · Josh Roeder (age 26) · Dustin Nippert (age 28)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 130122vR 114

ERA5.09

FIP5.09

K%18.3%

BB%12.3%

K-BB%6.0%

Proj IP59

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 59 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF4545

CTRL4545

CMD4545

K†4545

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2021	22	A MLE	Down East Wood Ducks	2	2	6	27	11	1	0	100%	3.2	40.7%	3.7%	37.0%	0.0%	2.84	0.13	—
2021	22	A RAW	Down East Wood Ducks	2	2	6	27	11	1	0	100%	3.2	40.7%	3.7%	37.0%	0.0%	2.84	0.10	—
2022	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	9	9	26	117	31	15	4	100%	2.9	19.3%	15.2%	4.2%	4.0%	6.31	5.60	—
2022	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	9	9	26	117	31	15	4	100%	2.9	26.5%	12.8%	13.7%	3.4%	6.31	4.46	—
2023	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	18	18	67	284	76	36	6	100%	3.7	21.3%	14.1%	7.2%	2.7%	2.54	4.55	—
2023	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	18	18	67	284	76	36	6	100%	3.7	26.8%	12.7%	14.1%	2.1%	2.54	3.60	—
2024	25	AA MLE	Frisco RoughRiders	26	18	97	415	104	40	11	69%	3.7	20.3%	10.6%	9.7%	2.9%	3.05	4.34	—
2024	25	AA MLE	Frisco RoughRiders	26	18	97	415	104	40	11	69%	3.7	20.3%	10.6%	9.7%	2.9%	3.05	4.34	—
2024	25	AA RAW	Frisco RoughRiders	26	18	97	415	104	40	11	69%	3.7	25.1%	9.6%	15.4%	2.7%	3.05	3.67	—
2025	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	32	2	53	239	56	26	5	6%	1.7	18.5%	10.3%	8.2%	2.6%	5.26	4.29	—
2025	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	32	2	53	239	56	26	5	6%	1.7	18.5%	10.3%	8.2%	2.6%	5.26	4.29	—
2025	26	MIX RAW	2 levels	32	2	53	239	56	26	5	6%	1.7	23.4%	10.9%	12.6%	2.1%	5.26	3.68	—
2026	27	AAA MLE	Round Rock Express	9	2	17	82	17	14	2	22%	1.9	17.8%	15.4%	2.5%	2.7%	9.18	5.01	—
2026	27	AAA MLE	Round Rock Express	9	2	17	82	17	14	2	22%	1.9	17.8%	15.4%	2.5%	2.7%	9.18	5.01	—
2026	27	AAA RAW	Round Rock Express	9	2	17	82	17	14	2	22%	1.9	20.7%	17.1%	3.7%	2.4%	9.18	5.14	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	28	MLB	TEX	1	1	6	25	5	3	1	100%	6.0	18.3%	12.3%	6.0%	2.9%	5.09	5.09	+0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	29	MLB MLE	TEX	8	8	48	203	38	25	6	100%	6.0	18.6%	12.2%	6.4%	3.1%	5.09	5.14	+0.1
2029	30	MLB MLE	TEX	7	7	41	174	32	21	6	100%	5.9	18.6%	12.3%	6.3%	3.3%	5.17	5.26	+0.1
2028	29	MLB CTX	TEX	3	3	18	76	14	9	2	100%	6.0	18.6%	12.2%	6.4%	3.1%	5.09	5.14	+0.1
2029	30	MLB CTX	TEX	4	4	23	97	18	12	3	100%	5.8	18.6%	12.3%	6.3%	3.3%	5.17	5.26	+0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		7	7	40	170	32	21	5	100%	5.8	18.6%	12.2%	6.3%	3.2%	5.13	4.83	+0.3
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		33	33	200	844	159	104	25	100%	6.0	18.6%	12.2%	6.3%	3.2%	5.13	4.83	+1.3
Career	—	MLE		96	51	266	1164	237	140	33	53%	2.8	20.4%	12.0%	8.4%	2.8%	4.06	4.46	+0.2
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		72	38	200	874	178	105	25	53%	2.8	20.4%	12.0%	8.4%	2.8%	4.06	4.46	+0.5

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 AAARound Rock Express · 17 IPFIP 4.85 → 5.01 (+0.16)K% 20.7% → 17.8%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	20.73%	—	×0.860	17.83%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	17.07%	—	×0.900	15.37%
HR / BF /BF	2.44%	÷1.000	×1.100	2.68%

Factors used: pitcher AAA level factors (Triple-A 2023+ robo-zone set: walks improve on promotion) — K ×0.86, BB ×0.90, HR ×1.10. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 4.85 → 5.01, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 AAARound Rock Express · 50 IPFIP 3.93 → 4.29 (+0.36)K% 21.5% → 18.5%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	21.49%	—	×0.860	18.48%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	11.40%	—	×0.900	10.26%
HR / BF /BF	2.19%	÷0.913	×1.100	2.64%

Result: FIP 3.93 → 4.29, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 AAFrisco RoughRiders · 97 IPFIP 3.66 → 4.34 (+0.69)K% 25.1% → 20.3%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	25.06%	—	×0.810	20.30%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	9.64%	—	×1.100	10.60%
HR / BF /BF	2.65%	÷1.080	×1.200	2.94%

Factors used: pitcher AA level factors — K ×0.81, BB ×1.10, HR ×1.20. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 116).

Result: FIP 3.66 → 4.34, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 AAFrisco RoughRiders · 46 IPFIP 3.70 → 4.54 (+0.84)K% 25.9% → 21.0%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	25.89%	—	×0.810	20.97%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	13.20%	—	×1.100	14.52%
HR / BF /BF	2.03%	÷0.974	×1.200	2.50%

Result: FIP 3.70 → 4.54, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 A+Hickory Crawdads · 21 IPFIP 3.39 → 4.57 (+1.18)K% 28.7% → 22.1%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	28.74%	—	×0.770	22.13%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	11.49%	—	×1.150	13.22%
HR / BF /BF	2.30%	÷0.948	×1.250	3.03%

Factors used: pitcher A+ level factors — K ×0.77, BB ×1.15, HR ×1.25. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 90).

Result: FIP 3.39 → 4.57, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 A+Hickory Crawdads · 13 IPFIP 5.37 → 6.46 (+1.09)K% 26.2% → 20.1%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	26.15%	—	×0.770	20.14%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	15.38%	—	×1.150	17.69%
HR / BF /BF	4.62%	÷1.123	×1.250	5.14%

Result: FIP 5.37 → 6.46, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 ROKACL Rangers · 13 IPFIP 3.10 → 4.53 (+1.43)K% 26.9% → 18.3%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	26.92%	—	×0.680	18.31%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	9.62%	—	×1.250	12.02%
HR / BF /BF	1.92%	÷1.018	×1.400	2.65%

Factors used: pitcher ROK level factors — K ×0.68, BB ×1.25, HR ×1.40. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 104).

Result: FIP 3.10 → 4.53, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2021 ADown East Wood Ducks · 6 IPFIP 0.13 → 1.11 (+0.98)K% 40.7% → 30.1%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	40.74%	—	×0.740	30.15%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	3.70%	—	×1.180	4.37%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷0.996	×1.300	0.00%

Factors used: pitcher A level factors — K ×0.74, BB ×1.18, HR ×1.30. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 99).

Result: FIP 0.13 → 1.11, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Dane Acker (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.09	18.3%	12.3%	2.9%	—	5.20	18.6%	6.3%	89	+0.11	—	—	—
Dennis O'Grady R 2015 · 4.95 FIP	26	SW	4.95	13.5%	11.0%	2.9%	.339	—	—	—	—	—	3.62	157	78
Josh Roeder R 2019 · 4.71 FIP	26	SW	4.71	15.1%	8.7%	3.3%	.264	—	—	—	—	—	4.71	175	76
Dustin Nippert R 2009 · 4.09 FIP	28	SP-	4.09	18.0%	9.7%	2.3%	.271	4.49	17.9%	6.1%	57	+0.40	3.83	268	74
Todd Wellemeyer R 2007 · 4.74 FIP	28	SW	4.74	17.0%	10.8%	3.1%	.270	4.86	15.5%	6.4%	373	+0.12	3.35	615	74
Mitch Neunborn R 2024 · 4.25 FIP	27	SP-	4.25	19.0%	12.0%	2.2%	.285	5.80	16.4%	6.5%	114	+1.55	3.65	248	73
Jason García R 2021 · 4.76 FIP	28	SP-	4.76	17.7%	13.5%	2.6%	.349	—	—	—	—	—	4.16	356	73
Nolan Sanburn R 2017 · 4.55 FIP	26	SW	4.55	15.0%	10.4%	2.5%	.310	—	—	—	—	—	3.82	169	73
Orlando Rodriguez R 2023 · 4.67 FIP	27	SW	4.67	13.7%	10.6%	2.5%	.252	—	—	—	—	—	4.40	119	73
Casey Sadler R 2018 · 3.95 FIP	28	SW	3.95	16.0%	7.8%	2.2%	.298	3.35	23.2%	16.5%	145	-0.60	2.21	385	73
Zach Stewart R 2015 · 4.43 FIP	28	SP-	4.43	14.4%	8.3%	2.7%	.322	5.17	11.7%	2.1%	51	+0.74	4.27	194	72
Ramon Delgado R 2016 · 4.60 FIP	29	SW	4.60	13.8%	5.9%	3.5%	.332	4.31	11.2%	7.2%	74	-0.29	4.31	135	72
Jefry Rodriguez R 2021 · 5.03 FIP	28	SW	5.03	19.4%	13.5%	3.4%	.287	4.58	19.8%	6.8%	64	-0.45	3.30	578	72
Jose Pina R 2015 · 4.90 FIP	29	SW	4.90	16.9%	9.2%	3.8%	.231	3.66	13.6%	6.9%	246	-1.24	3.63	424	72
Lisalverto Bonilla R 2017 · 4.61 FIP	27	SW	4.61	18.2%	10.5%	3.1%	.304	4.70	15.8%	3.2%	11	+0.09	3.22	242	72
Aldo Montes R 2017 · 4.96 FIP	27	SP-	4.96	12.4%	8.5%	3.3%	.322	4.69	18.2%	7.6%	75	-0.27	4.69	210	72
Mike Connolly R 2018 · 5.13 FIP	26	SW	5.13	13.2%	9.4%	3.5%	.321	—	—	—	—	—	3.94	328	71
Drake Fellows R 2024 · 4.97 FIP	26	SP-	4.97	16.1%	12.7%	2.9%	.293	4.85	14.2%	6.3%	207	-0.12	4.28	282	71
Alfonso Sanchez R 2016 · 5.26 FIP	28	SW	5.26	15.9%	7.4%	4.7%	.244	5.55	11.2%	2.3%	115	+0.29	4.51	224	71
Bradin Hagens R 2018 · 4.92 FIP	29	SP-	4.92	14.9%	9.9%	3.3%	.341	5.46	13.2%	0.6%	66	+0.54	3.79	254	70
Eddie Bonine R 2009 · 5.60 FIP	28	SW	5.60	13.1%	7.6%	4.8%	.306	4.54	8.6%	2.0%	68	-1.06	4.40	129	70

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,234 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 480 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.7	49	18.4%	12.2%	1.18	5.11
Tyler Yates ('09)	1.2	62	19.7%	12.0%	0.94	5.12
Valerio De Los Santos ('08)	1.3	51	18.7%	11.5%	1.30	4.57
Bill Wilson ('69-'73, -0 WAR*)	1.3	52	20.3%*	11.5%*	1.13*	4.84*
Fred Lasher ('63-'71, -1 WAR*)	1.0	50	21.5%*	11.9%*	1.05*	4.68*
Mike Matthews ('05)	1.2	61	16.3%	11.3%	1.07	4.54
Gene Harris ('89-'95, -1 WAR*)	1.2	40	20.0%*	12.5%*	0.98*	4.96*