Dane Acker — OGILVIE

Dane Acker P Round Rock Express

Age 27 RHP 6'2" / 189 lbs AAA peak 0.3 · 2026

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 70 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 127119vR 111

ERA4.94

FIP4.94

K%18.5%

BB%11.3%

K-BB%7.1%

ROS IP70

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 70 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF4545

CTRL4545

CMD4545

K†4545

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2021	22	A MLE	Down East Wood Ducks	2	2	6	27	11	1	0	100%	3.2	40.7%	3.7%	37.0%	0.0%	2.84	0.13	—
2021	22	A RAW	Down East Wood Ducks	2	2	6	27	11	1	0	100%	3.2	40.7%	3.7%	37.0%	0.0%	2.84	0.10	—
2022	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	9	9	26	117	31	15	4	100%	2.9	19.3%	15.2%	4.2%	4.0%	6.31	5.60	—
2022	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	9	9	26	117	31	15	4	100%	2.9	26.5%	12.8%	13.7%	3.4%	6.31	4.46	—
2023	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	18	18	67	284	76	36	6	100%	3.7	21.3%	14.1%	7.2%	2.7%	2.54	4.55	—
2023	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	18	18	67	284	76	36	6	100%	3.7	21.3%	14.1%	7.2%	2.7%	2.54	4.55	—
2023	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	18	18	67	284	76	36	6	100%	3.7	26.8%	12.7%	14.1%	2.1%	2.54	3.60	—
2024	25	AA MLE	Frisco RoughRiders	26	18	97	415	104	40	11	69%	3.7	20.3%	10.6%	9.7%	2.9%	3.05	4.34	—
2024	25	AA MLE	Frisco RoughRiders	26	18	97	415	104	40	11	69%	3.7	20.3%	10.6%	9.7%	2.9%	3.05	4.34	—
2024	25	AA RAW	Frisco RoughRiders	26	18	97	415	104	40	11	69%	3.7	25.1%	9.6%	15.4%	2.7%	3.05	3.67	—
2025	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	32	2	53	239	56	26	5	6%	1.7	17.8%	10.3%	7.6%	2.6%	5.26	4.34	—
2025	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	32	2	53	239	56	26	5	6%	1.7	17.8%	10.3%	7.6%	2.6%	5.26	4.34	—
2025	26	MIX RAW	2 levels	32	2	53	239	56	26	5	6%	1.7	23.4%	10.9%	12.6%	2.1%	5.26	3.68	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	27	AAA MLE	Round Rock Express	9	2	17	82	17	14	2	22%	1.9	17.2%	15.4%	1.8%	2.7%	9.18	5.07	—
YTD	27	AAA MLE	Round Rock Express	9	2	17	82	17	14	2	22%	1.9	17.2%	15.4%	1.8%	2.7%	9.18	5.07	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	27	AAA RAW	TEX	9	2	17	82	17	14	2	22%	1.9	20.7%	17.1%	3.7%	2.4%	9.18	4.85	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	28	MLB MLE	TEX	65	0	68	287	54	32	9	0%	1.0	18.9%	11.3%	7.6%	3.0%	4.93	4.96	-0.3
2028	29	MLB MLE	TEX	62	0	65	274	52	31	9	0%	1.0	18.9%	11.4%	7.6%	3.1%	4.98	5.05	-0.4
2027	28	MLB CTX	TEX	28	0	29	122	23	14	4	0%	1.0	18.9%	11.3%	7.6%	3.0%	4.93	4.96	-0.1
2028	29	MLB CTX	TEX	36	0	38	160	30	18	5	0%	1.1	18.9%	11.4%	7.6%	3.1%	4.98	5.05	-0.2
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		64	0	67	283	54	32	9	0%	1.0	18.9%	11.3%	7.6%	3.1%	4.96	4.63	-0.1
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	161	95	27	0%	1.1	18.9%	11.3%	7.6%	3.1%	4.96	4.63	-0.2
Career	—	MLE		96	51	266	1164	235	140	33	53%	2.8	20.2%	12.0%	8.2%	2.8%	4.06	4.47	-0.2
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		72	38	200	874	177	105	25	53%	2.8	20.2%	12.0%	8.2%	2.8%	4.06	4.47	-0.2

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Dane Acker (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.94	18.5%	11.3%	2.9%	—	5.00	18.9%	7.6%	133	+0.06	—	—	—
Roberto Gómez R 2017 · 3.95 FIP	27	SW	3.95	18.4%	8.9%	2.3%	.315	5.25	13.8%	4.9%	18	+1.30	3.95	115	86
Jorge Reyes R 2015 · 4.58 FIP	27	SW	4.58	15.9%	8.5%	3.2%	.307	3.49	14.2%	6.2%	129	-1.09	3.39	227	82
Dennis O'Grady R 2015 · 4.95 FIP	26	SW	4.95	13.5%	11.0%	2.9%	.339	—	—	—	—	—	3.62	157	82
Josh Roeder R 2019 · 4.71 FIP	26	SW	4.71	15.1%	8.7%	3.3%	.264	—	—	—	—	—	4.71	175	81
Taylor Grover R 2017 · 4.93 FIP	26	SW	4.93	20.0%	10.9%	3.9%	.320	4.89	16.2%	8.9%	14	-0.04	3.68	239	80
Grant Black R 2021 · 4.46 FIP	27	SW	4.46	19.0%	13.9%	2.2%	.327	5.37	14.7%	3.6%	156	+0.91	4.46	215	80
Aaron Northcraft R 2016 · 4.19 FIP	26	SW	4.19	16.1%	8.3%	2.5%	.309	3.32	24.1%	13.4%	34	-0.87	3.32	252	80
Colby Morris R 2022 · 5.76 FIP	25	SW	5.76	16.2%	11.8%	4.6%	.268	—	—	—	—	—	4.11	105	79
Trevor Cahill R 2015 · 4.13 FIP	27	SW	4.13	16.4%	9.4%	2.2%	.297	4.12	22.9%	12.0%	293	-0.01	3.37	556	78
Paul Clemens R 2015 · 5.37 FIP	27	SP-	5.37	14.3%	14.1%	3.1%	.310	4.62	16.9%	7.3%	200	-0.75	4.58	247	78
Lisalverto Bonilla R 2017 · 4.61 FIP	27	SW	4.61	18.2%	10.5%	3.1%	.304	4.70	15.8%	3.2%	11	+0.09	3.22	221	78
Bud Norris R 2015 · 4.68 FIP	30	SW	4.68	18.8%	8.2%	3.9%	.327	3.78	24.2%	15.5%	233	-0.90	3.51	316	77
André Rienzo R 2015 · 4.22 FIP	27	SW	4.22	15.7%	11.1%	1.9%	.264	4.02	19.8%	5.1%	74	-0.20	3.53	200	77
Jose Pina R 2015 · 4.90 FIP	29	SW	4.90	16.9%	9.2%	3.8%	.231	3.66	13.6%	6.9%	246	-1.24	3.63	424	77
Alfonso Sanchez R 2015 · 4.96 FIP	27	SP-	4.96	12.5%	9.1%	3.2%	.346	4.85	14.0%	5.3%	138	-0.11	4.51	224	77
Dylan Cumming R 2023 · 4.11 FIP	24	SW	4.11	16.0%	10.7%	1.8%	.311	4.31	18.4%	9.4%	314	+0.20	3.75	406	77
Andres Santiago R 2017 · 4.16 FIP	27	SW	4.16	16.3%	9.1%	2.3%	.384	5.26	13.1%	3.2%	159	+1.10	3.76	291	77
Tyler Santana R 2023 · 4.43 FIP	25	SW	4.43	15.4%	10.3%	2.4%	.306	4.90	15.1%	4.9%	191	+0.47	3.37	399	76
Daniel Blair R 2023 · 4.10 FIP	24	SW	4.10	16.6%	10.0%	2.1%	.284	4.39	17.0%	7.8%	78	+0.29	4.10	171	76
Jarret Whorff R 2023 · 4.24 FIP	24	SW	4.24	19.5%	14.2%	1.8%	.287	4.36	19.2%	10.6%	193	+0.12	3.92	257	76

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.0	68	18.8%	11.3%	1.16	4.95
Roansy Contreras ('24)	1.2	77	19.5%	10.1%	1.36	4.78
José Ruiz ('24)	1.3	52	22.2%	10.4%	1.41	4.41
Joe Biagini ('19)	1.6	81	19.1%	7.8%	1.28	4.86
Josh Winckowski ('24)	1.2	77	18.3%	8.2%	1.13	4.21
Miguel Castro ('23)	2.1	59	20.8%	12.0%	1.04	3.99
Junior Guerra ('21)	2.5	84	21.3%	11.0%	1.16	4.04