Grades · Contract
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 21 | ROK | DSL TEX Blue | 4 | 4 | 7 | 25 | 10 | 4 | 1 | 100% | 1.8 | 40.0% | 16.0% | 24.0% | 4.0% | 2.57 | 3.94 | — |
| 2022 | 21 | ROK | DSL TEX Blue | 4 | 4 | 7 | 25 | 10 | 4 | 1 | 100% | 1.8 | 40.0% | 16.0% | 24.0% | 4.0% | 2.57 | 3.81 | — |
| 2023 | 22 | MIX | 2 levels | 10 | 7 | 32 | 141 | 40 | 23 | 5 | 70% | 3.2 | 21.6% | 20.4% | 1.1% | 3.2% | 4.83 | 5.64 | — |
| 2023 | 22 | MIX | 2 levels | 10 | 7 | 32 | 141 | 40 | 23 | 5 | 70% | 3.2 | 28.4% | 16.3% | 12.1% | 3.5% | 4.83 | 4.81 | — |
| 2024 | 23 | A | Down East Wood Ducks | 23 | 8 | 80 | 337 | 96 | 42 | 8 | 35% | 3.5 | 21.1% | 14.7% | 6.4% | 3.0% | 3.47 | 4.85 | — |
| 2024 | 23 | A | Down East Wood Ducks | 23 | 8 | 80 | 337 | 96 | 42 | 8 | 35% | 3.5 | 28.5% | 12.5% | 16.0% | 2.4% | 3.47 | 3.57 | — |
| 2025 | 24 | MIX | 2 levels | 45 | 0 | 64 | 275 | 90 | 37 | 3 | 0% | 1.4 | 25.4% | 15.3% | 10.1% | 1.0% | 2.97 | 3.42 | — |
| 2025 | 24 | MIX | 2 levels | 45 | 0 | 64 | 275 | 90 | 37 | 3 | 0% | 1.4 | 32.7% | 13.5% | 19.3% | 1.1% | 2.97 | 2.63 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 25 | AAA | Round Rock Express | 31 | 1 | 40 | 168 | 49 | 17 | 2 | 3% | 1.3 | 24.3% | 10.9% | 13.4% | 1.4% | 2.27 | 3.21 | +0.6 |
| ROS | 25 | MLB | TEX | 67 | 0 | 70 | 296 | 77 | 48 | 8 | 0% | 1.0 | 26.1% | 16.1% | 10.0% | 2.6% | 4.74 | 4.74 | +0.0 |
| ROS | 25 | MLB | TEX | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0% | 1.0 | 26.1% | 16.1% | 10.0% | 2.6% | 4.74 | 4.74 | -0.0 |
| 2026 TOT | 25 | MLB | TEX | — | — | 110 | 464 | 126 | 65 | 10 | — | — | 27.2% | 13.9% | 13.3% | 2.1% | 3.85 | 4.19 | +1.6 |
| 2026 FULL | 25 | MLB | TEX | — | — | 1 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 0 | — | — | 26.1% | 16.1% | 10.0% | 2.6% | 4.74 | 4.36 | +0.0 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 26 | MLB | TEX | 67 | 0 | 70 | 296 | 77 | 45 | 8 | 0% | 1.0 | 26.0% | 15.3% | 10.7% | 2.6% | 4.68 | 4.67 | +0.1 |
| 2028 | 27 | MLB | TEX | 66 | 0 | 69 | 291 | 75 | 44 | 8 | 0% | 1.0 | 25.8% | 15.0% | 10.9% | 2.7% | 4.67 | 4.69 | +0.0 |
| 2029 | 28 | MLB | TEX | 64 | 0 | 67 | 282 | 72 | 42 | 8 | 0% | 1.0 | 25.6% | 14.8% | 10.8% | 2.8% | 4.71 | 4.75 | -0.0 |
| 2027 | 26 | MLB | TEX | 30 | 0 | 31 | 131 | 34 | 20 | 3 | 0% | 1.0 | 26.0% | 15.3% | 10.7% | 2.6% | 4.68 | 4.67 | -0.0 |
| 2028 | 27 | MLB | TEX | 42 | 0 | 44 | 186 | 48 | 28 | 5 | 0% | 1.0 | 25.8% | 15.0% | 10.9% | 2.7% | 4.67 | 4.69 | -0.1 |
| 2029 | 28 | MLB | TEX | 49 | 0 | 51 | 215 | 55 | 32 | 6 | 0% | 1.0 | 25.6% | 14.8% | 10.8% | 2.8% | 4.71 | 4.75 | -0.1 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 120 | 0 | 126 | 534 | 138 | 80 | 15 | 0% | 1.1 | 25.8% | 15.0% | 10.8% | 2.7% | 4.69 | 4.33 | +1.6 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 190 | 0 | 200 | 844 | 218 | 127 | 24 | 0% | 1.1 | 25.8% | 15.0% | 10.8% | 2.7% | 4.69 | 4.33 | +2.5 | ||
| Career | — | 113 | 20 | 222 | 946 | 222 | 143 | 21 | 18% | 2.0 | 23.5% | 15.1% | 8.4% | 2.2% | 3.28 | 4.24 | +3.0 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 102 | 18 | 200 | 851 | 200 | 128 | 19 | 18% | 2.0 | 23.5% | 15.1% | 8.4% | 2.2% | 3.28 | 4.24 | +2.7 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Wilian Bormie (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.74 | 26.1% | 16.1% | 2.6% | — | 4.70 | 25.8% | 10.8% | 206 | -0.04 | — | — | — |
| Eric Orze R 2026 · 4.22 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.22 | 26.2% | 15.8% | 2.4% | .319 | 3.56 | 24.9% | 14.0% | 173 | -0.66 | 3.06 | 331 | 85 |
| Caleb Simpson R 2026 · 5.35 FIP | 25 | SU | 5.35 | 23.7% | 17.2% | 3.8% | .263 | 3.98 | 23.5% | 5.1% | 71 | -1.37 | 3.28 | 197 | 84 |
| Tommy Kahnle R 2026 · 4.00 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.00 | 23.8% | 14.8% | 1.9% | .284 | 2.56 | 30.9% | 21.0% | 165 | -1.44 | 1.52 | 452 | 84 |
| Nick Ernst R 2026 · 4.99 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.99 | 21.9% | 14.6% | 3.4% | .275 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.54 | 117 | 83 |
| Antonio Menendez R 2026 · 3.70 FIP | 25 | SU | 3.70 | 23.6% | 14.2% | 1.5% | .292 | 4.23 | 18.8% | 4.6% | 87 | +0.53 | 2.97 | 231 | 83 |
| Gabriel Ponce R 2025 · 4.73 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.73 | 24.2% | 15.5% | 3.1% | .291 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.42 | 161 | 83 |
| Carlos Contreras R 2025 · 4.30 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.30 | 22.2% | 15.6% | 2.0% | .271 | 4.65 | 11.9% | 2.4% | 40 | +0.35 | 4.30 | 107 | 83 |
| Carter Loewen R 2026 · 4.32 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.32 | 23.1% | 15.0% | 2.3% | .312 | 4.25 | 20.0% | 11.9% | 23 | -0.07 | 2.67 | 145 | 83 |
| Matt Blackham R 2026 · 3.90 FIP | 25 | SU | 3.90 | 24.9% | 15.7% | 1.7% | .236 | 4.88 | 25.9% | 12.0% | 80 | +0.98 | 2.08 | 187 | 83 |
| Jake Haberer R 2025 · 3.62 FIP | 24 | SU | 3.62 | 26.9% | 17.3% | 1.1% | .278 | 6.08 | 19.6% | 3.0% | 76 | +2.46 | 3.62 | 183 | 82 |
| Justin Evans R 2026 · 3.73 FIP | 25 | SU | 3.73 | 23.6% | 14.3% | 1.5% | .323 | 4.80 | 16.4% | -7.9% | 14 | +1.07 | 3.73 | 105 | 82 |
| Ben Hecht R 2025 · 4.56 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.56 | 22.7% | 12.9% | 3.2% | .293 | 7.95 | 14.1% | -11.4% | 13 | +3.39 | 4.55 | 155 | 82 |
| Craig Brooks R 2026 · 4.02 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.02 | 23.4% | 15.1% | 1.8% | .260 | 5.40 | 31.1% | 15.9% | 59 | +1.38 | 3.30 | 229 | 82 |
| Nolan Riggs R 2026 · 4.61 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.61 | 20.7% | 14.0% | 2.7% | .300 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.36 | 132 | 82 |
| Fernando Baez R 2026 · 5.39 FIP | 25 | SU | 5.39 | 24.3% | 21.2% | 3.0% | .271 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.43 | 129 | 81 |
| Christopher Troye R 2026 · 5.42 FIP | 25 | SU | 5.42 | 24.2% | 17.0% | 4.0% | .282 | 5.50 | 19.1% | -3.8% | 30 | +0.08 | 3.42 | 158 | 81 |
| Kevin Kopps R 2026 · 4.78 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.78 | 20.2% | 15.1% | 2.7% | .278 | 4.59 | 16.5% | 2.8% | 182 | -0.19 | 3.64 | 237 | 81 |
| Preston Johnson R 2026 · 5.04 FIP | 25 | SU | 5.04 | 21.1% | 17.2% | 2.8% | .270 | 3.47 | 23.4% | 13.9% | 42 | -1.57 | 3.47 | 146 | 81 |
| Dakota Mekkes R 2025 · 4.51 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.51 | 23.1% | 15.4% | 2.6% | .290 | 4.81 | 16.7% | 1.8% | 70 | +0.30 | 2.99 | 246 | 81 |
| Peyton Gray R 2027 · 4.31 FIP | 26 | SU | 4.31 | 29.2% | 14.1% | 3.5% | .307 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.87 | 138 | 80 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 4 | 69 | 25.9% | 15.3% | 1.04 | 4.70 |
| Daniel Bard ('23) | 4 | 50 | 25.1% | 13.5% | 0.81 | 3.82 |
| Kyle Barraclough ('19) | 5 | 50 | 29.0% | 14.1% | 0.86 | 3.53 |
| Amir Garrett ('23) | 6 | 51 | 25.8% | 13.4% | 1.50 | 5.10 |
| Fernando Rodney ('19) | 5 | 59 | 24.6% | 11.8% | 0.88 | 4.21 |
| Greg Holland ('21) | 6 | 45 | 25.4% | 12.3% | 0.87 | 4.03 |
| Jake Diekman ('24) | 9 | 51 | 28.6% | 13.8% | 0.91 | 4.07 |