Antonio Menendez

P Amarillo Sod Poodles

Age 28 RHP 6'4" / 215 lbs AA

Overview

AAPROSPECT

MLB%2%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	25	AATB	39	63	3.14	2.88	29.2%	12.9%	—	K 23.6% · BB 14.2% · FIP 3.67
2025	26	MIX2 levels	35	44	5.08	3.57	21.8%	11.4%	—	K 18.2% · BB 11.4% · FIP 3.68
2026	27	MIX2 levels	48	62	5.92	4.27	22.5%	14.4%	—	K 18.7% · BB 13.9% · FIP 4.64
2027PROJ	28	MLBARI	1	1	4.93	4.93	19.2%	13.0%	-0.0
2028PROJ31% MLB	29	MLBARI	9	9	4.94	5.00	19.4%	12.8%	-0.0

Next 2 projected WAR -0.1Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Career WAR0.0 WAR median (P10 0.0 / P90 0.1, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 99%

CompsSpencer Bivens (age 28) · Wirfin Obispo (age 30) · Dustin Molleken (age 30)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 127119vR 111

ERA4.93

FIP4.93

K%19.2%

BB%13.0%

K-BB%6.3%

Proj IP40

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 40 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†4545

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2022	23	MIX MLE	3 levels	20	2	37	145	48	10	1	10%	1.9	24.7%	8.1%	16.5%	1.6%	1.70	2.92	—
2022	23	MIX RAW	3 levels	20	2	37	145	48	10	1	10%	1.9	33.1%	6.9%	26.2%	0.7%	1.70	1.67	—
2023	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	38	1	59	247	53	31	1	3%	1.5	17.0%	14.2%	2.7%	0.4%	3.53	3.72	—
2023	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	38	1	59	247	53	31	1	3%	1.5	21.5%	12.6%	8.9%	0.4%	3.53	3.10	—
2024	25	AA MLE	Montgomery Biscuits	39	0	63	271	79	35	3	0%	1.6	23.6%	14.2%	9.4%	1.4%	3.14	3.67	—
2024	25	AA MLE	Montgomery Biscuits	39	0	63	271	79	35	3	0%	1.6	23.6%	14.2%	9.4%	1.4%	3.14	3.67	—
2024	25	AA RAW	Montgomery Biscuits	39	0	63	271	79	35	3	0%	1.6	29.2%	12.9%	16.2%	1.1%	3.14	2.88	—
2025	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	35	0	44	193	42	22	3	0%	1.3	18.2%	11.4%	6.8%	1.2%	5.08	3.68	—
2025	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	35	0	44	193	42	22	3	0%	1.3	18.2%	11.4%	6.8%	1.2%	5.08	3.68	—
2025	26	MIX RAW	2 levels	35	0	44	193	42	22	3	0%	1.3	21.8%	11.4%	10.4%	1.6%	5.08	3.57	—
2026	27	MIX MLE	2 levels	48	0	62	284	64	41	6	0%	1.3	18.7%	13.9%	4.8%	2.5%	5.92	4.64	—
2026	27	MIX MLE	2 levels	48	0	62	284	64	41	6	0%	1.3	18.7%	13.9%	4.8%	2.5%	5.92	4.64	—
2026	27	MIX RAW	2 levels	48	0	62	284	64	41	6	0%	1.3	22.5%	14.4%	8.1%	2.1%	5.92	4.27	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	28	MLB	ARI	1	0	1	4	1	1	0	0%	1.0	19.2%	13.0%	6.3%	2.6%	4.93	4.93	-0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	29	MLB MLE	ARI	28	0	29	122	24	16	3	0%	1.0	19.4%	12.8%	6.6%	2.8%	4.94	5.00	-0.1
2028	29	MLB CTX	ARI	9	0	9	38	7	5	1	0%	1.0	19.4%	12.8%	6.6%	2.8%	4.94	5.00	-0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		9	0	9	38	7	5	1	0%	1.0	19.4%	12.8%	6.6%	2.8%	4.94	4.62	-0.0
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	154	110	22	0%	1.1	19.4%	12.8%	6.6%	2.8%	4.94	4.62	-0.2
Career	—	MLE		180	3	265	1140	230	147	17	2%	1.5	20.2%	12.9%	7.3%	1.5%	4.00	3.83	-0.2
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		136	2	200	859	173	111	12	2%	1.5	20.2%	12.9%	7.3%	1.5%	4.00	3.83	-1.1

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 AAAmarillo Sod Poodles · 39 IPFIP 3.46 → 4.27 (+0.81)K% 25.7% → 20.8%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	25.66%	—	×0.810	20.78%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	8.55%	—	×1.100	9.41%
HR / BF /BF	2.63%	÷1.000	×1.200	3.16%

Factors used: pitcher AA level factors — K ×0.81, BB ×1.10, HR ×1.20. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 3.46 → 4.27, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2026 AAAReno Aces · 23 IPFIP 5.02 → 5.06 (+0.04)K% 18.9% → 16.3%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	18.94%	—	×0.860	16.29%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	21.21%	—	×0.900	19.09%
HR / BF /BF	1.52%	÷1.000	×1.100	1.67%

Factors used: pitcher AAA level factors (Triple-A 2023+ robo-zone set: walks improve on promotion) — K ×0.86, BB ×0.90, HR ×1.10. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 5.02 → 5.06, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 AAADurham Bulls · 22 IPFIP 4.12 → 3.93 (−0.19)K% 24.2% → 20.8%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	24.24%	—	×0.860	20.85%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	11.11%	—	×0.900	10.00%
HR / BF /BF	3.03%	÷1.380	×1.100	2.41%

Result: FIP 4.12 → 3.93, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 AAMontgomery Biscuits · 23 IPFIP 2.97 → 3.42 (+0.46)K% 19.1% → 15.5%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	19.15%	—	×0.810	15.51%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	11.70%	—	×1.100	12.87%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷0.922	×1.200	0.00%

Result: FIP 2.97 → 3.42, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 AAMontgomery Biscuits · 63 IPFIP 2.88 → 3.67 (+0.78)K% 29.2% → 23.6%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	29.15%	—	×0.810	23.61%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	12.92%	—	×1.100	14.21%
HR / BF /BF	1.11%	÷0.958	×1.200	1.39%

Result: FIP 2.88 → 3.67, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 A+Bowling Green Hot Rods · 31 IPFIP 3.44 → 4.10 (+0.66)K% 19.0% → 14.6%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	18.98%	—	×0.770	14.61%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	15.33%	—	×1.150	17.63%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷1.066	×1.250	0.00%

Factors used: pitcher A+ level factors — K ×0.77, BB ×1.15, HR ×1.25. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 113).

Result: FIP 3.44 → 4.10, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 AAMontgomery Biscuits · 28 IPFIP 2.68 → 3.24 (+0.56)K% 24.5% → 19.9%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	24.55%	—	×0.810	19.88%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	9.09%	—	×1.100	10.00%
HR / BF /BF	0.91%	÷1.087	×1.200	1.00%

Result: FIP 2.68 → 3.24, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 ACharleston RiverDogs · 22 IPFIP 1.79 → 2.92 (+1.13)K% 33.3% → 24.7%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	33.33%	—	×0.740	24.67%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	6.90%	—	×1.180	8.14%
HR / BF /BF	1.15%	÷0.943	×1.300	1.58%

Factors used: pitcher A level factors — K ×0.74, BB ×1.18, HR ×1.30. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 89).

Result: FIP 1.79 → 2.92, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Antonio Menendez (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.93	19.2%	13.0%	2.6%	—	5.00	19.4%	6.6%	29	+0.07	—	—	—
Spencer Bivens R 2022 · 4.86 FIP	28	SU	4.86	19.8%	13.5%	3.1%	.265	3.85	18.1%	10.3%	272	-1.01	3.52	391	92
Wirfin Obispo R 2015 · 4.80 FIP	30	SU	4.80	18.6%	12.2%	3.1%	.292	1.31	28.6%	24.5%	126	-3.49	1.30	218	89
Dustin Molleken R 2015 · 3.74 FIP	30	SU	3.74	20.4%	11.7%	1.6%	.287	3.90	20.6%	8.4%	77	+0.16	3.38	129	86
Jim Miller R 2012 · 4.56 FIP	30	SU	4.56	20.9%	11.8%	3.1%	.243	3.95	18.8%	14.7%	74	-0.61	3.95	140	86
Luis Mateo R 2017 · 4.60 FIP	27	SU	4.60	17.6%	11.2%	2.9%	.309	5.55	8.6%	-4.8%	43	+0.95	3.48	160	85
Brandon Cunniff R 2017 · 4.79 FIP	28	SU	4.79	20.1%	11.6%	3.5%	.275	6.80	13.9%	-1.9%	30	+2.01	3.89	180	85
Thad Weber R 2013 · 5.18 FIP	28	SU	5.18	16.4%	13.1%	3.3%	.244	4.52	12.2%	6.0%	308	-0.66	4.40	378	85
Wil Browning R 2017 · 4.44 FIP	28	SU	4.44	17.9%	13.1%	2.2%	.359	—	—	—	—	—	2.14	162	85
Erik Davis R 2015 · 3.95 FIP	28	SU	3.95	17.9%	13.5%	1.2%	.363	3.64	21.1%	11.3%	181	-0.31	3.05	227	85
Joe Colón J R 2017 · 4.25 FIP	27	SU	4.25	20.4%	12.1%	2.4%	.315	—	—	—	—	—	3.27	113	85
Ronald Peña R 2019 · 4.55 FIP	27	SU	4.55	20.5%	12.6%	2.9%	.355	4.49	16.5%	6.1%	39	-0.06	3.72	187	84
Jose Veras R 2009 · 5.13 FIP	28	SU	5.13	17.8%	12.4%	3.6%	.228	3.57	26.3%	14.0%	186	-1.56	3.37	422	84
Cole McDonald R 2024 · 5.01 FIP	27	SU	5.01	20.9%	12.7%	3.8%	.281	—	—	—	—	—	2.81	153	83
Jeff Fulchino R 2008 · 4.62 FIP	28	SU	4.62	16.7%	11.1%	2.8%	.380	3.86	21.0%	12.4%	164	-0.76	3.36	178	83
Gregory Infante R 2015 · 4.54 FIP	28	SU	4.54	16.9%	15.7%	1.6%	.290	3.78	21.3%	12.7%	181	-0.76	2.97	230	82
Arcenio Leon R 2015 · 4.73 FIP	28	SU	4.73	17.9%	12.5%	2.9%	.450	3.37	18.0%	9.1%	85	-1.36	3.00	115	82
Tyler Yates R 2006 · 4.17 FIP	28	SU	4.17	21.2%	10.6%	2.8%	.254	3.70	20.7%	11.1%	151	-0.47	3.23	248	82
Tyler Walker R 2004 · 4.28 FIP	28	SU	4.28	17.5%	8.4%	2.9%	.311	3.77	18.5%	10.4%	101	-0.51	2.38	289	81
Beck Wheeler R 2017 · 5.40 FIP	28	SU	5.40	15.3%	12.2%	3.7%	.347	—	—	—	—	—	3.46	173	81
Kevin Gryboski R 2002 · 5.02 FIP	28	SU	5.02	13.9%	13.4%	2.5%	.263	3.83	12.0%	2.9%	126	-1.19	3.67	178	81

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,234 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 480 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.3	34	19.3%	12.9%	1.04	4.93
Gene Harris ('89-'95, -1 WAR*)	1.2	40	20.0%*	12.5%*	0.98*	4.96*
Fred Lasher ('63-'71, -1 WAR*)	1.0	50	21.5%*	11.9%*	1.05*	4.68*
Tyler Yates ('09)	1.2	62	19.7%	12.0%	0.94	5.12
Matt Anderson ('05)	1.3	51	19.3%	13.5%	1.05	5.19
Yorkis Perez ('02)	1.4	40	20.8%	11.8%	0.93	4.44
Bill Wilson ('69-'73, -0 WAR*)	1.3	52	20.3%*	11.5%*	1.13*	4.84*