Justin Evans
P
Jupiter Hammerheads
Age 29
RHP
6'0" / 185 lbs
A
2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 8 proj IP
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 119110vR 100
ERA4.39
FIP4.39
K%23.1%
BB%9.8%
K-BB%13.3%
ROS IP8
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 8 IP
Grades · Contract
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | 24 | MIX | 3 levels | 34 | 0 | 45 | 212 | 53 | 24 | 8 | 0% | 1.3 | 19.2% | 11.2% | 8.0% | 4.4% | 6.40 | 5.29 | — |
| 2021 | 24 | MIX | 3 levels | 34 | 0 | 45 | 212 | 53 | 24 | 8 | 0% | 1.3 | 25.0% | 11.3% | 13.7% | 3.8% | 6.40 | 4.66 | — |
| 2022 | 25 | MIX | 2 levels | 34 | 0 | 50 | 221 | 67 | 28 | 2 | 0% | 1.5 | 23.6% | 14.3% | 9.2% | 1.5% | 2.50 | 3.73 | — |
| 2022 | 25 | MIX | 2 levels | 34 | 0 | 50 | 221 | 67 | 28 | 2 | 0% | 1.5 | 30.3% | 12.7% | 17.6% | 0.9% | 2.50 | 2.62 | — |
| 2023 | 26 | AA | Pensacola Blue Wahoos | 3 | 0 | 2 | 11 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 0% | 0.6 | 18.2% | 27.3% | -9.1% | 0.0% | 21.60 | 5.02 | — |
| 2023 | 26 | AA | Pensacola Blue Wahoos | 3 | 0 | 2 | 11 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 0% | 0.6 | 18.2% | 27.3% | -9.1% | 0.0% | 21.60 | 6.10 | — |
| 2024 | 27 | A | Jupiter Hammerheads | 12 | 0 | 14 | 63 | 14 | 13 | 0 | 0% | 1.2 | 16.4% | 24.3% | -7.9% | 0.0% | 2.51 | 4.80 | — |
| 2024 | 27 | A | Jupiter Hammerheads | 12 | 0 | 14 | 63 | 14 | 13 | 0 | 0% | 1.2 | 22.2% | 20.6% | 1.6% | 0.0% | 2.51 | 3.87 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 29 | MLB | MIA | 8 | 0 | 8 | 35 | 8 | 3 | 1 | 0% | 1.1 | 23.1% | 9.8% | 13.3% | 2.9% | 4.39 | 4.39 | +0.0 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 30 | MLB | MIA | 19 | 0 | 20 | 84 | 19 | 9 | 3 | 0% | 1.1 | 22.8% | 10.1% | 12.7% | 3.2% | 4.49 | 4.56 | -0.0 |
| 2027 | 30 | MLB | MIA | 6 | 0 | 6 | 25 | 6 | 3 | 1 | 0% | 1.0 | 22.8% | 10.1% | 12.7% | 3.2% | 4.49 | 4.56 | -0.0 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 6 | 0 | 6 | 25 | 6 | 3 | 1 | 0% | 1.0 | 22.8% | 10.1% | 12.7% | 3.2% | 4.49 | 4.18 | +0.0 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 190 | 0 | 200 | 844 | 201 | 100 | 33 | 0% | 1.1 | 22.8% | 10.1% | 12.7% | 3.2% | 4.49 | 4.18 | +2.8 | ||
| Career | — | 83 | 0 | 111 | 507 | 105 | 74 | 12 | 0% | 1.3 | 20.7% | 14.6% | 6.2% | 2.5% | 4.37 | 4.55 | +1.1 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 149 | 0 | 200 | 911 | 189 | 133 | 22 | 0% | 1.3 | 20.7% | 14.6% | 6.2% | 2.5% | 4.37 | 4.55 | +2.0 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Justin Evans (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.39 | 23.1% | 9.8% | 2.9% | — | 4.56 | 22.8% | 12.7% | 20 | +0.17 | — | — | — |
| Tyler Sturdevant R 2026 · 4.07 FIP | 29 | SU | 4.07 | 21.3% | 8.5% | 3.1% | .241 | 4.06 | 18.5% | 11.9% | 118 | -0.01 | 3.28 | 149 | 85 |
| David Hernandez R 2027 · 4.32 FIP | 30 | SU | 4.32 | 22.9% | 7.6% | 4.0% | .287 | 3.20 | 24.9% | 18.4% | 192 | -1.12 | 2.56 | 268 | 83 |
| Gerardo Sanchez R 2025 · 3.49 FIP | 28 | SU | 3.49 | 21.6% | 8.4% | 2.1% | .355 | 3.55 | 20.5% | 15.1% | 56 | +0.06 | 2.51 | 137 | 82 |
| Cody Hall R 2026 · 4.45 FIP | 29 | SU | 4.45 | 26.8% | 10.0% | 4.3% | .299 | 3.95 | 25.9% | 8.4% | 19 | -0.50 | 3.53 | 134 | 80 |
| Diego Moreno R 2026 · 3.76 FIP | 29 | SU | 3.76 | 21.0% | 8.2% | 2.5% | .347 | 2.99 | 17.8% | 11.9% | 54 | -0.77 | 2.22 | 187 | 80 |
| Wirfin Obispo R 2027 · 4.87 FIP | 30 | SU | 4.87 | 18.6% | 12.2% | 3.3% | .292 | 1.30 | 28.6% | 24.5% | 126 | -3.57 | 1.30 | 218 | 80 |
| Cory Gearrin R 2026 · 3.55 FIP | 29 | SU | 3.55 | 22.1% | 7.5% | 2.5% | .283 | 3.52 | 22.2% | 13.6% | 174 | -0.03 | 3.15 | 272 | 79 |
| Coleman Huntley III R 2026 · 4.19 FIP | 29 | SU | 4.19 | 24.4% | 10.9% | 3.2% | .311 | 2.38 | 20.9% | 12.6% | 25 | -1.81 | 2.38 | 160 | 79 |
| Jonathan Broxton R 2028 · 3.57 FIP | 31 | SU | 3.57 | 24.5% | 8.2% | 2.7% | .325 | 3.78 | 21.7% | 13.5% | 76 | +0.21 | 3.57 | 137 | 78 |
| Andrew Robinson R 2026 · 4.39 FIP | 29 | SU | 4.39 | 23.4% | 8.8% | 3.9% | .245 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.96 | 160 | 78 |
| Jhan Mariñez R 2026 · 4.16 FIP | 29 | SU | 4.16 | 21.2% | 7.9% | 3.4% | .331 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.23 | 253 | 78 |
| Ross Ohlendorf R 2029 · 3.26 FIP | 32 | SU | 3.26 | 23.7% | 7.2% | 2.3% | .342 | 4.99 | 23.4% | 12.7% | 66 | +1.73 | 3.26 | 122 | 78 |
| Ryan Brasier R 2025 · 4.03 FIP | 28 | SU | 4.03 | 25.0% | 7.7% | 3.8% | .289 | 3.03 | 24.2% | 17.9% | 130 | -1.00 | 2.27 | 426 | 78 |
| Michael Dimock R 2025 · 3.34 FIP | 28 | SU | 3.34 | 23.5% | 10.7% | 1.6% | .346 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.31 | 166 | 78 |
| Drew Storen R 2026 · 3.86 FIP | 29 | SU | 3.86 | 19.5% | 7.3% | 2.7% | .289 | 4.49 | 19.4% | 8.4% | 10 | +0.63 | 2.36 | 172 | 77 |
| Al Alburquerque R 2026 · 3.58 FIP | 29 | SU | 3.58 | 21.4% | 11.1% | 1.6% | .330 | 3.18 | 21.3% | 12.5% | 114 | -0.40 | 2.76 | 228 | 77 |
| Dustin Molleken R 2027 · 3.61 FIP | 30 | SU | 3.61 | 20.4% | 11.7% | 1.4% | .287 | 4.00 | 20.6% | 8.4% | 77 | +0.39 | 3.35 | 129 | 77 |
| Carlos Fisher R 2029 · 3.44 FIP | 32 | SU | 3.44 | 22.6% | 11.6% | 1.4% | .236 | 3.25 | 22.5% | 11.1% | 91 | -0.19 | 2.56 | 147 | 77 |
| Jose Manuel Lopez R 2027 · 4.81 FIP | 30 | SU | 4.81 | 18.6% | 7.6% | 4.2% | .373 | 3.58 | 18.5% | 9.3% | 93 | -1.23 | 3.37 | 170 | 77 |
| Marc Magliaro R 2025 · 3.72 FIP | 28 | SU | 3.72 | 19.6% | 7.3% | 2.5% | .307 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.62 | 125 | 76 |