Justin Evans — OGILVIE

Justin Evans P Jupiter Hammerheads

Age 29 RHP 6'0" / 185 lbs A

2026 ROS PROJECTION0 act + 1 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 131123vR 115

ERA5.17

FIP5.17

K%22.0%

BB%15.2%

K-BB%6.8%

ROS IP1

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 1 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†5555

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2021	24	MIX MLE	3 levels	34	0	45	212	53	24	8	0%	1.3	19.2%	11.2%	8.0%	4.5%	6.40	5.38	—
2021	24	MIX RAW	3 levels	34	0	45	212	53	24	8	0%	1.3	25.0%	11.3%	13.7%	3.8%	6.40	4.66	—
2022	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	34	0	50	221	67	28	2	0%	1.5	23.6%	14.3%	9.2%	1.3%	2.50	3.63	—
2022	25	MIX RAW	2 levels	34	0	50	221	67	28	2	0%	1.5	30.3%	12.7%	17.6%	0.9%	2.50	2.62	—
2023	26	AA MLE	Pensacola Blue Wahoos	3	0	2	11	2	3	0	0%	0.6	18.2%	27.3%	-9.1%	0.0%	21.60	5.02	—
2023	26	AA MLE	Pensacola Blue Wahoos	3	0	2	11	2	3	0	0%	0.6	18.2%	27.3%	-9.1%	0.0%	21.60	5.02	—
2023	26	AA RAW	Pensacola Blue Wahoos	3	0	2	11	2	3	0	0%	0.6	18.2%	27.3%	-9.1%	0.0%	21.60	6.10	—
2024	27	A MLE	Jupiter Hammerheads	12	0	14	63	14	13	0	0%	1.2	16.4%	24.3%	-7.9%	0.0%	2.51	4.80	—
2024	27	A MLE	Jupiter Hammerheads	12	0	14	63	14	13	0	0%	1.2	16.4%	24.3%	-7.9%	0.0%	2.51	4.80	—
2024	27	A RAW	Jupiter Hammerheads	12	0	14	63	14	13	0	0%	1.2	22.2%	20.6%	1.6%	0.0%	2.51	3.87	—
▸ 2026 season — projected remainder (no 2026 stats recorded)
2026	29	MLB	MIA	1	0	1	4	1	1	0	0%	1.0	22.0%	15.2%	6.8%	2.9%	5.17	5.17	-0.0
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	30	MLB MLE	MIA	19	0	20	84	18	13	3	0%	1.1	21.8%	14.9%	6.9%	3.2%	5.19	5.26	-0.2
2027	30	MLB CTX	MIA	6	0	6	25	6	4	1	0%	1.0	21.8%	14.9%	6.9%	3.2%	5.19	5.26	-0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		6	0	6	25	6	4	1	0%	1.0	21.8%	14.9%	6.9%	3.2%	5.19	4.88	-0.0
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	201	134	33	0%	1.1	21.8%	14.9%	6.9%	3.2%	5.19	4.88	-0.8
Career	—	MLE		83	0	111	507	105	74	12	0%	1.3	20.7%	14.6%	6.2%	2.4%	4.37	4.53	-0.2
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		149	0	200	911	189	133	22	0%	1.3	20.7%	14.6%	6.2%	2.4%	4.37	4.53	-1.7

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Justin Evans (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.17	22.0%	15.2%	2.9%	—	5.26	21.8%	6.9%	20	+0.09	—	—	—
Wirfin Obispo R 2015 · 4.80 FIP	30	SU	4.80	18.6%	12.2%	3.1%	.292	1.31	28.6%	24.5%	126	-3.49	1.30	218	84
Javy Guerra R 2016 · 4.29 FIP	30	SU	4.29	21.3%	13.9%	2.3%	.303	3.95	19.5%	13.0%	193	-0.34	2.95	260	82
Sam Gardner R 2023 · 4.04 FIP	26	SU	4.04	23.8%	15.1%	1.9%	.298	3.07	26.7%	16.7%	73	-0.97	2.28	118	77
Joe Colón J R 2017 · 4.25 FIP	27	SU	4.25	20.4%	12.1%	2.4%	.315	—	—	—	—	—	3.27	113	77
Dan Winkler R 2019 · 4.99 FIP	29	SU	4.99	20.6%	15.2%	3.1%	.237	4.44	23.0%	8.4%	104	-0.55	2.40	231	77
Tanner Scheppers R 2015 · 4.37 FIP	28	SU	4.37	17.7%	11.2%	2.5%	.263	4.86	15.7%	9.0%	48	+0.49	4.37	101	75
Theo Denlinger R 2023 · 4.21 FIP	27	SU	4.21	19.8%	15.1%	1.6%	.266	4.23	15.3%	9.9%	41	+0.02	2.92	140	75
Brandon Cunniff R 2017 · 4.79 FIP	28	SU	4.79	20.1%	11.6%	3.5%	.275	6.80	13.9%	-1.9%	30	+2.01	3.89	180	75
Gregory Infante R 2016 · 4.47 FIP	29	SU	4.47	19.0%	12.3%	2.6%	.333	3.43	22.5%	15.8%	120	-1.04	2.97	230	75
Kevin Lenik R 2019 · 4.91 FIP	27	SU	4.91	21.7%	14.9%	3.2%	.205	—	—	—	—	—	3.00	107	75
Wil Browning R 2017 · 4.44 FIP	28	SU	4.44	17.9%	13.1%	2.2%	.359	—	—	—	—	—	2.14	162	74
Ryan Cook R 2015 · 4.73 FIP	28	SU	4.73	16.5%	9.9%	3.2%	.297	3.96	25.1%	14.3%	50	-0.77	3.96	102	73
Jordan Jankowski R 2018 · 4.76 FIP	29	SU	4.76	21.8%	16.9%	2.5%	.396	—	—	—	—	—	2.57	196	73
Irving Jimenez R 2017 · 4.51 FIP	27	SU	4.51	18.9%	12.4%	2.6%	.417	—	—	—	—	—	3.63	104	73
Coleman Huntley III R 2022 · 4.05 FIP	29	SU	4.05	24.4%	10.9%	3.0%	.311	2.38	20.9%	12.6%	25	-1.67	2.38	160	72
Louis Head R 2019 · 4.85 FIP	29	SU	4.85	21.2%	12.7%	3.5%	.450	3.54	23.7%	13.1%	108	-1.31	2.76	336	71
Mitchell Stumpo R 2023 · 6.35 FIP	27	SU	6.35	20.6%	20.8%	4.3%	.368	4.77	22.6%	15.5%	34	-1.58	3.97	158	71
Tyler Sturdevant R 2015 · 4.37 FIP	29	SU	4.37	21.3%	8.5%	3.6%	.241	3.97	18.5%	11.9%	118	-0.40	3.44	149	71
Roman Mendez R 2019 · 4.42 FIP	29	SU	4.42	20.8%	11.1%	3.0%	.276	—	—	—	—	—	4.12	230	71
Ronald Peña R 2021 · 4.49 FIP	29	SU	4.49	16.5%	10.4%	2.7%	.288	—	—	—	—	—	3.72	187	71