Grades · Contract
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2019 | 18 | ROK | GCL Rays | 5 | 2 | 11 | 50 | 16 | 11 | 1 | 40% | 2.1 | 21.8% | 27.5% | -5.7% | 2.8% | 5.91 | 6.28 | — |
| 2019 | 18 | ROK | GCL Rays | 5 | 2 | 11 | 50 | 16 | 11 | 1 | 40% | 2.1 | 32.0% | 22.0% | 10.0% | 2.0% | 5.91 | 4.41 | — |
| 2021 | 20 | ROK | FCL Rays | 9 | 4 | 19 | 85 | 29 | 13 | 0 | 44% | 2.1 | 23.2% | 19.1% | 4.1% | 0.0% | 2.84 | 3.56 | — |
| 2021 | 20 | ROK | FCL Rays | 9 | 4 | 19 | 85 | 29 | 13 | 0 | 44% | 2.1 | 34.1% | 15.3% | 18.8% | 0.0% | 2.84 | 2.10 | — |
| 2022 | 21 | MIX | 2 levels | 24 | 23 | 94 | 388 | 121 | 42 | 9 | 96% | 3.9 | 23.0% | 12.8% | 10.2% | 3.8% | 3.06 | 4.85 | — |
| 2022 | 21 | MIX | 2 levels | 24 | 23 | 94 | 388 | 121 | 42 | 9 | 96% | 3.9 | 31.2% | 10.8% | 20.4% | 2.3% | 3.06 | 3.11 | — |
| 2023 | 22 | A+ | Bowling Green Hot Rods | 22 | 22 | 84 | 365 | 96 | 45 | 7 | 100% | 3.8 | 20.3% | 14.2% | 6.1% | 2.1% | 4.06 | 4.35 | — |
| 2023 | 22 | A+ | Bowling Green Hot Rods | 22 | 22 | 84 | 365 | 96 | 45 | 7 | 100% | 3.8 | 26.3% | 12.3% | 14.0% | 1.9% | 4.06 | 3.50 | — |
| 2024 | 23 | AA | Montgomery Biscuits | 12 | 12 | 55 | 229 | 57 | 23 | 6 | 100% | 4.6 | 20.2% | 11.0% | 9.1% | 3.4% | 3.42 | 4.68 | — |
| 2024 | 23 | AA | Montgomery Biscuits | 12 | 12 | 55 | 229 | 57 | 23 | 6 | 100% | 4.6 | 24.9% | 10.0% | 14.8% | 2.6% | 3.42 | 3.70 | — |
| 2025 | 24 | AAA | Charlotte Knights | 45 | 0 | 49 | 204 | 47 | 26 | 4 | 0% | 1.1 | 20.3% | 13.4% | 6.9% | 1.3% | 3.33 | 3.81 | — |
| 2025 | 24 | AAA | Charlotte Knights | 45 | 0 | 49 | 204 | 47 | 26 | 4 | 0% | 1.1 | 23.0% | 12.7% | 10.3% | 2.0% | 3.33 | 3.84 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 25 | MLB | Texas Rangers | 32 | 0 | 42 | 165 | 48 | 20 | 3 | 0% | 1.3 | 26.4% | 14.0% | 12.4% | 1.5% | 2.38 | 3.45 | +0.5 |
| ROS | 25 | MLB | TEX | 53 | 0 | 56 | 234 | 50 | 31 | 6 | 0% | 1.0 | 21.3% | 13.3% | 8.0% | 2.6% | 4.79 | 4.79 | -0.2 |
| ROS | 25 | MLB | TEX | 53 | 0 | 56 | 236 | 50 | 32 | 6 | 0% | 1.1 | 21.3% | 13.3% | 8.0% | 2.6% | 4.79 | 4.79 | -0.2 |
| 2026 TOT | 25 | MLB | TEX | — | — | 97 | 399 | 98 | 51 | 9 | — | — | 24.5% | 12.8% | 11.7% | 2.3% | 3.75 | 4.21 | +1.3 |
| 2026 FULL | 25 | MLB | TEX | — | — | 60 | 251 | 98 | 51 | 9 | — | — | 39.0% | 20.4% | 18.6% | 3.6% | 6.13 | 4.37 | +0.1 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 26 | MLB | TEX | 57 | 0 | 60 | 251 | 55 | 32 | 7 | 0% | 1.0 | 22.1% | 12.9% | 9.2% | 2.6% | 4.71 | 4.69 | -0.1 |
| 2028 | 27 | MLB | TEX | 56 | 0 | 59 | 247 | 55 | 31 | 7 | 0% | 1.0 | 22.1% | 12.7% | 9.5% | 2.7% | 4.69 | 4.70 | -0.1 |
| 2029 | 28 | MLB | TEX | 54 | 0 | 57 | 240 | 53 | 30 | 7 | 0% | 1.1 | 22.1% | 12.7% | 9.4% | 2.8% | 4.73 | 4.77 | -0.1 |
| 2027 | 26 | MLB | TEX | 54 | 0 | 57 | 241 | 53 | 31 | 6 | 0% | 1.1 | 22.1% | 12.9% | 9.2% | 2.6% | 4.71 | 4.69 | -0.1 |
| 2028 | 27 | MLB | TEX | 53 | 0 | 56 | 236 | 52 | 30 | 6 | 0% | 1.1 | 22.1% | 12.7% | 9.5% | 2.7% | 4.69 | 4.70 | -0.1 |
| 2029 | 28 | MLB | TEX | 51 | 0 | 54 | 228 | 50 | 29 | 6 | 0% | 1.1 | 22.1% | 12.7% | 9.4% | 2.8% | 4.73 | 4.77 | -0.1 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 214 | 0 | 226 | 951 | 208 | 121 | 26 | 0% | 1.1 | 21.9% | 12.7% | 9.2% | 2.7% | 4.69 | 4.37 | +2.7 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 190 | 0 | 200 | 843 | 184 | 107 | 23 | 0% | 1.1 | 21.9% | 12.7% | 9.2% | 2.7% | 4.69 | 4.37 | +2.4 | ||
| Career | — | 149 | 63 | 354 | 1486 | 325 | 207 | 37 | 42% | 2.4 | 21.9% | 13.9% | 7.9% | 2.5% | 3.38 | 4.38 | +4.2 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 84 | 36 | 200 | 840 | 184 | 117 | 21 | 42% | 2.4 | 21.9% | 13.9% | 7.9% | 2.5% | 3.38 | 4.38 | +2.4 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Ben Peoples (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.79 | 21.3% | 13.3% | 2.6% | — | 4.72 | 22.1% | 9.3% | 175 | -0.07 | — | — | — |
| Grant Black R 2028 · 4.49 FIP | 27 | SW | 4.49 | 19.0% | 13.9% | 2.2% | .327 | 5.46 | 15.2% | 3.1% | 156 | +0.97 | 4.49 | 215 | 86 |
| Emmanuel Chapman R 2026 · 4.19 FIP | 25 | SW | 4.19 | 19.7% | 10.6% | 2.6% | .256 | 4.43 | 18.4% | 2.3% | 111 | +0.24 | 3.87 | 192 | 85 |
| Irving Jimenez R 2026 · 3.63 FIP | 25 | SW | 3.63 | 18.5% | 12.8% | 0.9% | .313 | 4.12 | 14.1% | 1.7% | 50 | +0.49 | 3.63 | 104 | 84 |
| Layne Somsen R 2027 · 3.72 FIP | 26 | SU | 3.72 | 19.5% | 12.5% | 1.3% | .265 | 4.04 | 19.9% | 6.7% | 92 | +0.32 | 3.67 | 154 | 84 |
| Jarret Whorff R 2026 · 4.26 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.26 | 18.9% | 10.2% | 2.7% | .271 | 4.65 | 19.5% | 11.5% | 99 | +0.39 | 3.81 | 233 | 84 |
| Sean Isaac R 2026 · 4.25 FIP | 25 | SW | 4.25 | 24.2% | 16.3% | 2.1% | .292 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.26 | 155 | 82 |
| Kevin Kopps R 2026 · 4.78 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.78 | 20.2% | 15.1% | 2.7% | .278 | 4.59 | 16.5% | 2.8% | 182 | -0.19 | 3.64 | 237 | 82 |
| C.J. Culpepper R 2025 · 3.74 FIP | 24 | SW | 3.74 | 21.0% | 12.8% | 1.5% | .276 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.41 | 253 | 81 |
| Brad Deppermann R 2026 · 4.65 FIP | 25 | SW | 4.65 | 17.1% | 9.6% | 3.2% | .289 | 3.44 | 20.0% | 7.8% | 45 | -1.21 | 1.94 | 143 | 81 |
| Ryan Conroy R 2026 · 4.73 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.73 | 19.3% | 12.6% | 3.0% | .361 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.86 | 106 | 81 |
| Jimmy Joyce R 2026 · 4.56 FIP | 25 | SW | 4.56 | 17.8% | 14.2% | 2.1% | .278 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.44 | 259 | 80 |
| Derek Gordon R 2026 · 4.72 FIP | 25 | SW | 4.72 | 19.9% | 9.3% | 3.9% | .315 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.72 | 146 | 79 |
| Nolan Riggs R 2026 · 4.61 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.61 | 20.7% | 14.0% | 2.7% | .300 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.36 | 132 | 79 |
| Chase Plymell R 2026 · 4.21 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.21 | 19.2% | 13.0% | 2.0% | .330 | 4.58 | 14.2% | 5.4% | 162 | +0.37 | 3.79 | 291 | 79 |
| Preston Johnson R 2026 · 5.04 FIP | 25 | SU | 5.04 | 21.1% | 17.2% | 2.8% | .270 | 3.47 | 23.4% | 13.9% | 42 | -1.57 | 3.47 | 146 | 79 |
| Barrett Loseke R 2026 · 4.36 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.36 | 21.7% | 10.1% | 3.3% | .311 | 5.39 | 24.0% | 10.9% | 22 | +1.03 | 4.36 | 152 | 79 |
| Carter Loewen R 2026 · 4.32 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.32 | 23.1% | 15.0% | 2.3% | .312 | 4.25 | 20.0% | 11.9% | 23 | -0.07 | 2.67 | 145 | 79 |
| Danny Kirwin R 2026 · 4.03 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.03 | 16.8% | 9.3% | 2.1% | .275 | 8.37 | 16.9% | -3.1% | 25 | +4.34 | 4.03 | 161 | 78 |
| Dylan Hall R 2026 · 4.02 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.02 | 21.0% | 13.2% | 1.9% | .305 | 7.93 | 15.1% | 2.4% | 58 | +3.91 | 3.54 | 153 | 78 |
| Nick Ernst R 2026 · 4.99 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.99 | 21.9% | 14.6% | 3.4% | .275 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.54 | 117 | 78 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 4 | 59 | 21.9% | 12.9% | 1.04 | 4.73 |
| Fernando Rodney ('19) | 5 | 59 | 24.6% | 11.8% | 0.88 | 4.21 |
| Miguel Castro ('23) | 7 | 59 | 20.8% | 12.0% | 1.04 | 3.99 |
| Greg Holland ('21) | 6 | 45 | 25.4% | 12.3% | 0.87 | 4.03 |
| Daniel Bard ('23) | 4 | 50 | 25.1% | 13.5% | 0.81 | 3.82 |
| José Cisnero ('23) | 5 | 42 | 24.8% | 11.3% | 0.94 | 3.84 |
| John Gant ('21) | 4 | 85 | 20.1% | 12.5% | 0.79 | 3.91 |