Luis Rujano — OGILVIE

Luis Rujano P Knoxville Smokies

Age 23 RHP 6'4" / 200 lbs AA

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 52 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 143135vR 127

ERA5.81

FIP5.81

K%18.6%

BB%19.0%

K-BB%-0.5%

ROS IP52

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 52 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF4545

CTRL2020

CMD3535

K†4550

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2023	20	A MLE	Myrtle Beach Pelicans	19	9	53	242	56	34	3	47%	2.8	17.1%	16.6%	0.5%	1.7%	4.10	4.68	—
2023	20	A MLE	Myrtle Beach Pelicans	19	9	53	242	56	34	3	47%	2.8	17.1%	16.6%	0.5%	1.7%	4.10	4.68	—
2023	20	A RAW	Myrtle Beach Pelicans	19	9	53	242	56	34	3	47%	2.8	23.1%	14.0%	9.1%	1.2%	4.10	3.65	—
2024	21	A MLE	Myrtle Beach Pelicans	20	7	53	239	55	25	4	35%	2.7	17.0%	12.3%	4.7%	2.4%	5.40	4.54	—
2024	21	A MLE	Myrtle Beach Pelicans	20	7	53	239	55	25	4	35%	2.7	17.0%	12.3%	4.7%	2.4%	5.40	4.54	—
2024	21	A RAW	Myrtle Beach Pelicans	20	7	53	239	55	25	4	35%	2.7	23.0%	10.5%	12.6%	1.7%	5.40	3.42	—
2025	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	33	3	52	237	59	39	3	9%	1.6	19.5%	19.4%	0.1%	1.5%	3.96	4.74	—
2025	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	33	3	52	237	59	39	3	9%	1.6	19.5%	19.4%	0.1%	1.5%	3.96	4.74	—
2025	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	33	3	52	237	59	39	3	9%	1.6	24.9%	16.5%	8.4%	1.3%	3.96	3.83	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	23	AA MLE	Knoxville Smokies	34	0	57	267	61	41	5	0%	1.7	15.8%	18.3%	-2.5%	1.6%	5.81	4.96	—
YTD	23	AA MLE	Knoxville Smokies	34	0	57	267	61	41	5	0%	1.7	15.8%	18.3%	-2.5%	1.6%	5.81	4.96	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	23	ROK RAW	CHC	6	0	10	41	16	4	2	0%	1.7	39.0%	9.8%	29.3%	4.9%	3.60	3.72	—
2026	23	A+ RAW	CHC	12	0	19	84	20	12	0	0%	1.6	23.8%	14.3%	9.5%	0.0%	4.34	2.90	—
2026	23	AA RAW	CHC	16	0	29	142	25	25	3	0%	1.8	17.6%	17.6%	0.0%	2.1%	7.53	5.00	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	24	MLB MLE	CHC	55	0	58	243	48	40	7	0%	1.0	19.6%	16.5%	3.1%	2.7%	5.51	5.41	-0.5
2028	25	MLB MLE	CHC	55	0	58	246	50	37	7	0%	1.1	20.2%	14.9%	5.4%	2.7%	5.26	5.15	-0.4
2027	24	MLB CTX	CHC	24	0	25	106	21	17	3	0%	1.0	19.6%	16.5%	3.1%	2.7%	5.51	5.41	-0.2
2028	25	MLB CTX	CHC	37	0	39	165	33	25	4	0%	1.1	20.2%	14.9%	5.4%	2.7%	5.26	5.15	-0.3
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		61	0	64	271	54	42	7	0%	1.1	20.0%	15.5%	4.5%	2.7%	5.36	4.87	-0.2
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	168	131	22	0%	1.1	20.0%	15.5%	4.5%	2.7%	5.36	4.87	-0.8
Career	—	MLE		106	19	216	985	170	164	18	18%	2.0	17.3%	16.7%	0.6%	1.8%	4.84	4.74	-1.0
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		98	18	200	913	158	152	16	18%	2.0	17.3%	16.7%	0.6%	1.8%	4.84	4.74	-1.7

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Luis Rujano (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.81	18.6%	19.0%	2.7%	—	5.28	19.9%	4.2%	116	-0.53	—	—	—
James Acuna R 2021 · 5.12 FIP	23	SU	5.12	21.3%	17.0%	3.0%	.302	4.33	19.4%	4.6%	60	-0.79	4.33	107	87
Kris Hall R 2015 · 4.63 FIP	24	SU	4.63	18.3%	17.8%	1.5%	.281	7.01	12.7%	-7.8%	34	+2.38	4.63	106	87
Will McAffer R 2019 · 4.68 FIP	22	SU	4.68	20.4%	18.1%	1.8%	.270	5.96	18.5%	-4.0%	77	+1.28	4.68	133	87
Brett Lockwood R 2021 · 5.46 FIP	24	SU	5.46	16.2%	15.5%	3.2%	.312	4.58	11.0%	-6.3%	79	-0.88	4.24	132	86
Jeff Soptic R 2015 · 5.30 FIP	24	SU	5.30	15.5%	17.2%	2.5%	.237	5.52	13.6%	-1.7%	68	+0.22	5.30	124	85
Jacob Morris R 2015 · 5.43 FIP	24	SU	5.43	18.0%	19.6%	2.5%	.218	4.77	18.7%	-2.4%	46	-0.66	4.77	102	85
Cole Percival R 2022 · 5.21 FIP	23	SU	5.21	15.4%	14.5%	2.9%	.297	4.27	17.9%	5.9%	182	-0.94	3.58	327	84
Jhonny Polanco R 2015 · 4.75 FIP	23	SW	4.75	18.9%	14.2%	2.6%	.283	4.06	21.3%	5.7%	48	-0.69	4.06	116	84
Luis Ledo R 2018 · 5.51 FIP	23	SU	5.51	17.1%	17.6%	3.0%	.329	3.65	20.8%	8.0%	85	-1.86	3.27	376	84
Tommy DeJuneas R 2019 · 5.15 FIP	23	SU	5.15	20.8%	18.8%	2.6%	.324	5.65	13.7%	-3.9%	51	+0.50	3.93	178	83
Carlos Polanco R 2017 · 5.71 FIP	23	SU	5.71	13.9%	20.0%	2.3%	.267	—	—	—	—	—	3.70	276	83
Sal Biasi R 2019 · 5.22 FIP	23	SU	5.22	20.1%	15.8%	3.3%	.295	7.66	15.3%	-0.2%	23	+2.44	4.68	188	83
Junior Rincon R 2015 · 4.93 FIP	23	SU	4.93	17.8%	13.8%	2.9%	.318	3.75	17.6%	5.1%	82	-1.18	3.52	113	83
Blake Quinn R 2017 · 5.41 FIP	23	SW	5.41	16.9%	15.3%	3.3%	.328	4.42	17.1%	3.3%	48	-0.99	4.42	122	83
Garrett Apker R 2023 · 6.24 FIP	23	SW	6.24	15.0%	18.8%	3.7%	.343	4.93	18.9%	5.2%	53	-1.31	4.01	101	83
Jonathan Teaney R 2019 · 5.65 FIP	23	SU	5.65	16.4%	15.7%	3.5%	.301	—	—	—	—	—	4.77	108	83
Stefan Raeth R 2023 · 4.62 FIP	22	SU	4.62	18.0%	15.4%	2.0%	.309	4.73	17.5%	8.3%	124	+0.11	4.51	173	83
Ocean Gabonia R 2023 · 5.04 FIP	22	SU	5.04	15.4%	14.6%	2.5%	.283	3.29	19.1%	10.9%	91	-1.75	2.79	144	83
Cody Scroggins R 2021 · 5.35 FIP	24	SU	5.35	17.4%	15.1%	3.3%	.263	4.28	18.6%	4.4%	59	-1.07	3.78	108	82
Roberto Espinosa R 2015 · 4.92 FIP	23	SU	4.92	18.9%	18.6%	1.9%	.273	4.43	14.8%	2.2%	77	-0.49	4.32	117	82

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.8	56	19.5%	16.7%	1.05	5.52
Touki Toussaint ('24)	1.4	40	23.1%	14.1%	1.25	5.39
Amir Garrett ('23)	1.5	51	25.8%	13.4%	1.50	5.10
Daniel Bard ('23)	1.0	50	25.1%	13.5%	0.81	3.82
Tyler Chatwood ('21)	2.6	104	19.2%	13.3%	0.94	4.48
John Gant ('21)	1.7	85	20.1%	12.5%	0.79	3.91
Miguel Castro ('23)	2.1	59	20.8%	12.0%	1.04	3.99