Luis Rujano

P Knoxville Smokies

Age 24 RHP 6'4" / 200 lbs AA

Overview

AAPROSPECT

ETA2028MLB%2%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	21	ACHC	20	7	53	5.40	3.42	23.0%	10.5%	—	K 17.0% · BB 12.3% · FIP 4.54
2025	22	MIX2 levels	33	3	52	3.96	3.83	24.9%	16.5%	—	K 19.5% · BB 19.4% · FIP 4.74
2026	23	MIX3 levels	35	0	58	5.71	4.16	23.3%	15.2%	—	K 16.3% · BB 18.0% · FIP 4.87
2027PROJ	24	MLBCHC	1	0	1	6.03	6.03	16.8%	19.8%	-0.0
2028PROJ44% MLB	25	MLBCHC	17	0	18	5.70	5.60	18.1%	17.2%	-0.2
2029PROJ67% MLB	26	MLBCHC	22	0	23	5.53	5.48	18.7%	16.6%	-0.2

Next 3 projected WAR -0.5Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Scouting grades · 20-80

Stuff45Control20Command35

Career WAR0.0 WAR median (P10 -0.2 / P90 0.0, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 100%

CompsJeff Soptic (age 24) · Brett Lockwood (age 24) · Carlos Polanco (age 23)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 148140vR 131

ERA6.03

FIP6.03

K%16.8%

BB%19.8%

K-BB%-3.0%

Proj IP57

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 57 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF4545

CTRL2020

CMD3535

K†4045

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2023	20	A MLE	Myrtle Beach Pelicans	19	9	53	242	56	34	3	47%	2.8	17.1%	16.6%	0.5%	1.7%	4.10	4.68	—
2023	20	A RAW	Myrtle Beach Pelicans	19	9	53	242	56	34	3	47%	2.8	23.1%	14.0%	9.1%	1.2%	4.10	3.65	—
2024	21	A MLE	Myrtle Beach Pelicans	20	7	53	239	55	25	4	35%	2.7	17.0%	12.3%	4.7%	2.4%	5.40	4.54	—
2024	21	A MLE	Myrtle Beach Pelicans	20	7	53	239	55	25	4	35%	2.7	17.0%	12.3%	4.7%	2.4%	5.40	4.54	—
2024	21	A RAW	Myrtle Beach Pelicans	20	7	53	239	55	25	4	35%	2.7	23.0%	10.5%	12.6%	1.7%	5.40	3.42	—
2025	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	33	3	52	237	59	39	3	9%	1.6	19.5%	19.4%	0.1%	1.5%	3.96	4.74	—
2025	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	33	3	52	237	59	39	3	9%	1.6	19.5%	19.4%	0.1%	1.5%	3.96	4.74	—
2025	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	33	3	52	237	59	39	3	9%	1.6	24.9%	16.5%	8.4%	1.3%	3.96	3.83	—
2026	23	MIX MLE	3 levels	35	0	58	270	63	41	5	0%	1.7	16.3%	18.0%	-1.8%	1.6%	5.71	4.87	—
2026	23	MIX MLE	3 levels	35	0	58	270	63	41	5	0%	1.7	16.3%	18.0%	-1.8%	1.6%	5.71	4.87	—
2026	23	MIX RAW	3 levels	35	0	58	270	63	41	5	0%	1.7	23.3%	15.2%	8.1%	1.9%	5.71	4.16	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	24	MLB	CHC	1	0	1	4	1	1	0	0%	1.0	16.8%	19.8%	-3.0%	2.7%	6.03	6.03	-0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	25	MLB MLE	CHC	39	0	41	171	31	29	5	0%	1.0	18.1%	17.2%	0.9%	2.7%	5.70	5.60	-0.5
2029	26	MLB MLE	CHC	33	0	35	147	28	24	4	0%	1.1	18.7%	16.6%	2.2%	2.7%	5.53	5.48	-0.4
2028	25	MLB CTX	CHC	17	0	18	76	14	13	2	0%	1.1	18.1%	17.2%	0.9%	2.7%	5.70	5.60	-0.2
2029	26	MLB CTX	CHC	22	0	23	97	18	16	3	0%	1.0	18.7%	16.6%	2.2%	2.7%	5.53	5.48	-0.2
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		39	0	41	173	32	29	5	0%	1.1	18.4%	16.8%	1.6%	2.7%	5.60	5.15	-0.3
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	156	141	24	0%	1.1	18.4%	16.8%	1.6%	2.7%	5.60	5.15	-1.4
Career	—	MLE		107	19	217	988	172	164	18	18%	2.0	17.4%	16.6%	0.8%	1.8%	4.82	4.71	-0.9
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		99	18	200	912	159	152	16	18%	2.0	17.4%	16.6%	0.8%	1.8%	4.82	4.71	-2.3

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 AAKnoxville Smokies · 30 IPFIP 4.85 → 5.59 (+0.74)K% 18.6% → 15.1%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	18.62%	—	×0.810	15.08%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	17.24%	—	×1.100	18.97%
HR / BF /BF	2.07%	÷1.000	×1.200	2.48%

Factors used: pitcher AA level factors — K ×0.81, BB ×1.10, HR ×1.20. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 4.85 → 5.59, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2026 A+South Bend Cubs · 19 IPFIP 2.90 → 3.63 (+0.73)K% 23.8% → 18.3%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	23.81%	—	×0.770	18.33%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	14.29%	—	×1.150	16.43%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷1.000	×1.250	0.00%

Factors used: pitcher A+ level factors — K ×0.77, BB ×1.15, HR ×1.25. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 2.90 → 3.63, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2026 ROKACL Cubs · 10 IPFIP 3.72 → 6.15 (+2.43)K% 39.0% → 26.5%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	39.02%	—	×0.680	26.54%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	9.76%	—	×1.250	12.20%
HR / BF /BF	4.88%	÷1.000	×1.400	6.83%

Factors used: pitcher ROK level factors — K ×0.68, BB ×1.25, HR ×1.40. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 3.72 → 6.15, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 A+South Bend Cubs · 49 IPFIP 3.83 → 4.74 (+0.91)K% 25.3% → 19.5%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	25.33%	—	×0.770	19.51%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	16.89%	—	×1.150	19.42%
HR / BF /BF	1.33%	÷1.106	×1.250	1.51%

Result: FIP 3.83 → 4.74, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 AMyrtle Beach Pelicans · 53 IPFIP 3.40 → 4.54 (+1.14)K% 23.0% → 17.0%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	23.01%	—	×0.740	17.03%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	10.46%	—	×1.180	12.34%
HR / BF /BF	1.67%	÷0.908	×1.300	2.40%

Factors used: pitcher A level factors — K ×0.74, BB ×1.18, HR ×1.30. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 82).

Result: FIP 3.40 → 4.54, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 AMyrtle Beach Pelicans · 53 IPFIP 3.61 → 4.68 (+1.07)K% 23.1% → 17.1%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	23.14%	—	×0.740	17.12%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	14.05%	—	×1.180	16.58%
HR / BF /BF	1.24%	÷0.957	×1.300	1.68%

Result: FIP 3.61 → 4.68, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Luis Rujano (OGILVIE)	—	—	6.03	16.8%	19.8%	2.7%	—	5.54	18.4%	1.5%	75	-0.49	—	—	—
Jeff Soptic R 2015 · 5.30 FIP	24	SU	5.30	15.5%	17.2%	2.5%	.237	5.52	13.6%	-1.7%	68	+0.22	5.30	124	86
Brett Lockwood R 2021 · 5.46 FIP	24	SU	5.46	16.2%	15.5%	3.2%	.312	4.58	11.0%	-6.3%	79	-0.88	4.24	132	85
Carlos Polanco R 2017 · 5.71 FIP	23	SU	5.71	13.9%	20.0%	2.3%	.267	—	—	—	—	—	3.70	276	84
Jacob Morris R 2015 · 5.43 FIP	24	SU	5.43	18.0%	19.6%	2.5%	.218	4.77	18.7%	-2.4%	46	-0.66	4.77	102	84
Taylor Floyd R 2022 · 4.84 FIP	24	SU	4.84	19.6%	18.4%	1.9%	.305	4.30	19.8%	10.2%	184	-0.54	3.48	359	82
Yordy Cabrera R 2016 · 4.99 FIP	25	SU	4.99	15.8%	17.2%	1.9%	.321	4.17	13.7%	2.7%	140	-0.82	3.43	159	82
Leandro Linares R 2018 · 5.49 FIP	24	SU	5.49	16.2%	22.0%	1.8%	.353	—	—	—	—	—	1.93	134	82
Jake Eddington R 2024 · 5.02 FIP	23	SW	5.02	18.8%	24.1%	0.8%	.316	4.83	16.6%	-1.5%	105	-0.19	4.70	135	82
Kelvin Vasquez R 2017 · 6.26 FIP	24	SU	6.26	15.0%	23.2%	2.7%	.247	5.06	14.5%	-0.2%	48	-1.20	5.01	180	81
David Lucroy R 2016 · 4.99 FIP	23	SU	4.99	15.8%	16.8%	2.0%	.352	—	—	—	—	—	3.93	103	81
Aroni Nina R 2015 · 4.90 FIP	25	SU	4.90	16.8%	20.5%	1.1%	.312	3.04	18.8%	8.7%	64	-1.86	2.68	115	81
Christian Ruebeck R 2024 · 6.03 FIP	23	SU	6.03	20.6%	24.4%	2.9%	.265	4.57	21.6%	1.9%	70	-1.46	4.35	104	80
Cody Scroggins R 2021 · 5.35 FIP	24	SU	5.35	17.4%	15.1%	3.3%	.263	4.28	18.6%	4.4%	59	-1.07	3.78	108	80
Noah Takacs R 2024 · 5.77 FIP	22	SU	5.77	12.5%	16.4%	3.0%	.301	5.68	13.4%	-2.3%	91	-0.09	5.25	130	80
Austin Glorius R 2017 · 6.09 FIP	24	SU	6.09	18.7%	21.0%	3.5%	.312	—	—	—	—	—	3.92	141	80
Yoel Espinal R 2017 · 5.37 FIP	24	SU	5.37	21.4%	23.1%	2.1%	.255	4.24	22.9%	10.0%	99	-1.13	3.86	231	80
Austin Pettibone R 2016 · 5.11 FIP	23	SU	5.11	14.6%	16.2%	2.2%	.333	—	—	—	—	—	3.99	142	80
Ryan Sublette R 2023 · 5.72 FIP	24	SU	5.72	21.4%	22.3%	2.9%	.278	5.06	19.2%	3.8%	102	-0.66	3.74	203	80
Dylan Spacke R 2022 · 5.24 FIP	24	SU	5.24	16.1%	13.9%	3.2%	.297	4.79	13.6%	0.2%	52	-0.45	2.08	205	79
Jonathan Teaney R 2019 · 5.65 FIP	23	SU	5.65	16.4%	15.7%	3.5%	.301	—	—	—	—	—	4.77	108	79

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,234 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 480 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.7	44	17.7%	18.2%	1.04	5.80
Brian Bruney ('12)	1.3	43	21.2%	15.8%	0.94	4.68
John Parrish ('10)	1.4	46	17.6%	14.8%	0.88	4.51
Doug Creek ('05)	1.4	58	22.2%	15.1%	1.52	5.32
Dwayne Henry ('84-'95, -1 WAR*)	1.7	67	23.8%*	14.2%*	0.90*	5.02*
Gene Harris ('89-'95, -1 WAR*)	1.2	40	20.0%*	12.5%*	0.98*	4.96*
Ken Wright ('70-'74, -0 WAR*)	1.2	79	23.8%*	16.1%*	0.70*	5.24*