Jaydenn Estanista

P Beloit Sky Carp

Age 25 RHP 6'2" / 180 lbs A+

Overview

A+PROSPECT

ETA2028MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	22	MIX2 levels	31	0	54	3.52	3.40	31.1%	13.6%	—	K 23.4% · BB 15.9% · FIP 4.59
2025	23	MIX2 levels	40	0	45	4.84	4.11	24.5%	15.1%	—	K 19.3% · BB 16.9% · FIP 4.96
2026	24	MIX2 levels	33	0	45	6.00	4.41	27.2%	13.1%	—	K 21.4% · BB 14.8% · FIP 5.38
2027PROJ	25	MLBMIA	—	—	0	5.25	5.25	21.4%	14.7%	—
2028PROJ43% MLB	26	MLBMIA	12	0	13	5.14	5.13	21.8%	14.1%	-0.1

Next 2 projected WAR -0.1Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Career WAR0.0 WAR median (P10 0.0 / P90 0.0, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 97%

CompsFrancisco Del Rosario (age 25) · Kevin Kopps (age 25) · Nick Ernst (age 25)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 133125vR 117

ERA5.25

FIP5.25

K%21.4%

BB%14.7%

K-BB%6.6%

Proj IP27

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 27 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†5050

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2021	19	ROK MLE	DSL Phillies White	10	6	31	124	33	19	1	60%	3.1	18.1%	19.2%	-1.1%	1.3%	3.23	4.72	—
2021	19	ROK RAW	DSL Phillies White	10	6	31	124	33	19	1	60%	3.1	26.6%	15.3%	11.3%	0.8%	3.23	3.23	—
2022	20	ROK MLE	FCL Phillies	12	5	31	118	35	16	3	42%	2.6	20.2%	16.9%	3.2%	3.8%	2.01	5.61	—
2022	20	ROK RAW	FCL Phillies	12	5	31	118	35	16	3	42%	2.6	29.7%	13.6%	16.1%	2.5%	2.01	3.64	—
2023	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	14	2	25	128	30	28	3	14%	1.8	16.7%	25.7%	-9.0%	3.1%	8.17	6.67	—
2023	21	MIX RAW	2 levels	14	2	25	128	30	28	3	14%	1.8	23.4%	21.9%	1.6%	2.3%	8.17	5.59	—
2024	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	31	0	54	228	71	31	5	0%	1.7	23.4%	15.9%	7.5%	2.6%	3.52	4.59	—
2024	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	31	0	54	228	71	31	5	0%	1.7	23.4%	15.9%	7.5%	2.6%	3.52	4.59	—
2024	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	31	0	54	228	71	31	5	0%	1.7	31.1%	13.6%	17.5%	2.2%	3.52	3.40	—
2025	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	40	0	45	192	47	29	4	0%	1.1	19.3%	16.9%	2.4%	2.5%	4.84	4.96	—
2025	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	40	0	45	192	47	29	4	0%	1.1	19.3%	16.9%	2.4%	2.5%	4.84	4.96	—
2025	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	40	0	45	192	47	29	4	0%	1.1	24.5%	15.1%	9.4%	2.1%	4.84	4.11	—
2026	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	33	0	45	213	58	28	7	0%	1.4	21.4%	14.8%	6.7%	4.0%	6.00	5.38	—
2026	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	33	0	45	213	58	28	7	0%	1.4	21.4%	14.8%	6.7%	4.0%	6.00	5.38	—
2026	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	33	0	45	213	58	28	7	0%	1.4	27.2%	13.1%	14.1%	3.3%	6.00	4.41	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	25	MLB	MIA	—	—	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	21.4%	14.7%	6.6%	3.1%	5.25	5.25	—
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	26	MLB MLE	MIA	29	0	31	129	28	18	4	0%	1.1	21.8%	14.1%	7.6%	3.1%	5.14	5.13	-0.2
2028	26	MLB CTX	MIA	12	0	13	55	12	8	2	0%	1.1	21.8%	14.1%	7.6%	3.1%	5.14	5.13	-0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		13	0	13	56	12	8	2	0%	1.0	21.8%	14.1%	7.6%	3.1%	5.14	4.75	-0.0
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	182	122	30	0%	1.1	21.8%	14.1%	7.6%	3.1%	5.14	4.75	-0.5
Career	—	MLE		140	13	231	1003	204	177	29	9%	1.6	20.3%	17.6%	2.7%	2.9%	4.53	5.23	-0.2
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		121	11	200	870	177	153	25	9%	1.6	20.3%	17.6%	2.7%	2.9%	4.53	5.23	-1.4

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 A+Beloit Sky Carp · 25 IPFIP 4.00 → 5.23 (+1.23)K% 28.2% → 21.7%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	28.21%	—	×0.770	21.72%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	11.11%	—	×1.150	12.78%
HR / BF /BF	3.42%	÷1.000	×1.250	4.27%

Factors used: pitcher A+ level factors — K ×0.77, BB ×1.15, HR ×1.25. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 4.00 → 5.23, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2026 AAPensacola Blue Wahoos · 20 IPFIP 4.60 → 5.55 (+0.96)K% 26.0% → 21.1%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	26.04%	—	×0.810	21.09%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	15.62%	—	×1.100	17.19%
HR / BF /BF	3.12%	÷1.000	×1.200	3.75%

Factors used: pitcher AA level factors — K ×0.81, BB ×1.10, HR ×1.20. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 4.60 → 5.55, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 AAReading Fightin Phils · 22 IPFIP 4.36 → 5.16 (+0.80)K% 24.7% → 20.0%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	24.74%	—	×0.810	20.04%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	17.53%	—	×1.100	19.28%
HR / BF /BF	2.06%	÷1.036	×1.200	2.39%

Result: FIP 4.36 → 5.16, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 A+Jersey Shore BlueClaws · 23 IPFIP 3.81 → 4.75 (+0.94)K% 24.2% → 18.6%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	24.21%	—	×0.770	18.64%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	12.63%	—	×1.150	14.53%
HR / BF /BF	2.11%	÷1.045	×1.250	2.52%

Result: FIP 3.81 → 4.75, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 AClearwater Threshers · 31 IPFIP 3.97 → 5.35 (+1.38)K% 33.6% → 24.9%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	33.59%	—	×0.740	24.85%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	16.03%	—	×1.180	18.92%
HR / BF /BF	3.05%	÷1.115	×1.300	3.56%

Factors used: pitcher A level factors — K ×0.74, BB ×1.18, HR ×1.30. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 123).

Result: FIP 3.97 → 5.35, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 A+Jersey Shore BlueClaws · 23 IPFIP 2.62 → 3.56 (+0.93)K% 27.8% → 21.4%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	27.84%	—	×0.770	21.43%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	10.31%	—	×1.150	11.86%
HR / BF /BF	1.03%	÷0.926	×1.250	1.39%

Result: FIP 2.62 → 3.56, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 AClearwater Threshers · 24 IPFIP 5.28 → 6.67 (+1.39)K% 22.6% → 16.7%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	22.58%	—	×0.740	16.71%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	21.77%	—	×1.180	25.69%
HR / BF /BF	2.42%	÷1.000	×1.300	3.15%

Result: FIP 5.28 → 6.67, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 ROKFCL Phillies · 31 IPFIP 3.71 → 5.61 (+1.90)K% 29.7% → 20.2%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	29.66%	—	×0.680	20.17%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	13.56%	—	×1.250	16.95%
HR / BF /BF	2.54%	÷0.947	×1.400	3.76%

Factors used: pitcher ROK level factors — K ×0.68, BB ×1.25, HR ×1.40. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 89).

Result: FIP 3.71 → 5.61, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Jaydenn Estanista (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.25	21.4%	14.7%	3.1%	—	5.13	21.8%	7.6%	31	-0.12	—	—	—
Francisco Del Rosario R 2006 · 5.13 FIP	25	SU	5.13	19.4%	13.0%	3.7%	.290	3.93	19.7%	10.3%	26	-1.20	3.93	194	91
Kevin Kopps R 2022 · 4.56 FIP	25	SU	4.56	20.2%	15.1%	2.3%	.278	4.40	16.3%	4.0%	182	-0.16	3.45	237	88
Nick Ernst R 2022 · 5.05 FIP	25	SU	5.05	21.9%	14.6%	3.5%	.275	—	—	—	—	—	3.56	117	87
Maikel Cleto R 2014 · 4.24 FIP	25	SU	4.24	23.2%	15.2%	2.1%	.256	3.45	25.4%	14.5%	106	-0.79	2.59	185	86
Nolan Riggs R 2018 · 4.49 FIP	25	SU	4.49	20.7%	14.0%	2.5%	.300	—	—	—	—	—	2.36	132	86
Hayden Snelsire R 2024 · 5.10 FIP	23	SU	5.10	18.9%	13.8%	3.4%	.272	4.28	20.0%	13.7%	135	-0.82	3.83	178	85
Haden Erbe R 2024 · 5.28 FIP	25	SU	5.28	18.4%	16.5%	3.0%	.320	5.19	17.8%	0.5%	40	-0.09	5.19	116	85
Alec Barger R 2023 · 4.44 FIP	25	SU	4.44	21.5%	14.4%	2.4%	.326	4.67	18.6%	7.5%	79	+0.23	3.85	242	85
CJ Weins R 2024 · 4.55 FIP	23	SU	4.55	24.7%	15.9%	2.8%	.276	5.77	16.2%	-4.4%	76	+1.22	4.55	117	85
Ryan Conroy R 2022 · 4.75 FIP	25	SU	4.75	19.3%	12.6%	3.1%	.361	—	—	—	—	—	4.01	106	84
Andrew McInvale R 2022 · 5.15 FIP	25	SU	5.15	17.6%	15.9%	2.8%	.324	6.44	24.5%	10.0%	23	+1.29	4.92	103	84
Ben Hecht R 2019 · 4.51 FIP	24	SU	4.51	22.7%	12.9%	3.1%	.293	7.98	14.1%	-11.4%	13	+3.47	4.39	155	84
Josh Harlow R 2024 · 5.17 FIP	23	SU	5.17	18.5%	13.5%	3.5%	.266	5.73	17.1%	-4.2%	51	+0.56	5.17	107	83
Caleb Simpson R 2017 · 5.37 FIP	25	SU	5.37	23.7%	17.2%	3.8%	.263	3.93	23.5%	5.1%	71	-1.44	3.57	197	83
Carter Loewen R 2024 · 4.26 FIP	25	SU	4.26	23.1%	15.0%	2.2%	.312	4.16	20.0%	11.9%	23	-0.10	2.67	145	83
Christopher Troye R 2024 · 5.46 FIP	25	SU	5.46	24.2%	17.0%	4.1%	.282	5.61	19.1%	-3.8%	30	+0.15	3.42	158	83
Bryce McGowan R 2024 · 5.11 FIP	24	SU	5.11	19.8%	14.3%	3.4%	.304	3.71	18.8%	6.7%	55	-1.40	3.71	178	83
Cody Scroggins R 2022 · 4.50 FIP	25	SU	4.50	20.5%	16.2%	2.0%	.351	3.78	14.2%	4.6%	18	-0.72	3.78	108	83
Cameron Gann R 2017 · 4.22 FIP	24	SU	4.22	21.4%	12.4%	2.5%	.296	5.36	21.1%	6.8%	23	+1.14	3.58	146	83
Spencer Bivens R 2022 · 4.86 FIP	28	SU	4.86	19.8%	13.5%	3.1%	.265	3.85	18.1%	10.3%	272	-1.01	3.52	391	83

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,234 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 480 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.3	29	21.6%	14.4%	1.20	5.19
John Hudek ('99)	1.0	40	23.0%	13.7%	1.30	4.43
Armando Almanza ('05)	1.1	54	24.4%	14.3%	1.43	4.82
Gene Harris ('89-'95, -1 WAR*)	1.2	40	20.0%*	12.5%*	0.98*	4.96*
Doug Creek ('05)	1.4	58	22.2%	15.1%	1.52	5.32
Ed Glynn ('75-'85, -0 WAR*)	1.3	53	23.5%*	12.9%*	1.22*	4.69*
Fred Lasher ('63-'71, -1 WAR*)	1.0	50	21.5%*	11.9%*	1.05*	4.68*