Bryce McGowan
P
Hartford Yard Goats
Age 26
RHP
6'1" / 205 lbs
AA
2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 63 proj IP
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 132123vR 114
ERA5.02
FIP5.02
K%19.0%
BB%13.4%
K-BB%5.6%
ROS IP63
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 63 IP
Grades · Contract
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | 21 | ROK | ACL Rockies | 4 | 0 | 4 | 15 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 0% | 1.0 | 26.7% | 13.3% | 13.3% | 0.0% | 0.00 | 2.54 | — |
| 2021 | 21 | ROK | ACL Rockies | 4 | 0 | 4 | 15 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 0% | 1.0 | 26.7% | 13.3% | 13.3% | 0.0% | 0.00 | 2.60 | — |
| 2022 | 22 | A | Fresno Grizzlies | 30 | 0 | 33 | 170 | 39 | 33 | 3 | 0% | 1.1 | 17.0% | 22.9% | -5.9% | 2.6% | 7.44 | 5.98 | — |
| 2022 | 22 | A | Fresno Grizzlies | 30 | 0 | 33 | 170 | 39 | 33 | 3 | 0% | 1.1 | 22.9% | 19.4% | 3.5% | 1.8% | 7.44 | 4.94 | — |
| 2023 | 23 | MIX | 5 levels | 43 | 0 | 50 | 221 | 65 | 30 | 4 | 0% | 1.2 | 23.4% | 16.0% | 7.4% | 2.2% | 3.99 | 4.36 | — |
| 2023 | 23 | MIX | 5 levels | 43 | 0 | 50 | 221 | 65 | 30 | 4 | 0% | 1.2 | 29.4% | 13.6% | 15.8% | 1.8% | 3.99 | 3.34 | — |
| 2024 | 24 | AA | Hartford Yard Goats | 41 | 0 | 44 | 192 | 47 | 25 | 5 | 0% | 1.1 | 19.8% | 14.3% | 5.5% | 3.8% | 4.12 | 5.30 | — |
| 2024 | 24 | AA | Hartford Yard Goats | 41 | 0 | 44 | 192 | 47 | 25 | 5 | 0% | 1.1 | 24.5% | 13.0% | 11.5% | 2.6% | 4.12 | 4.15 | — |
| 2025 | 25 | MIX | 2 levels | 48 | 0 | 56 | 248 | 55 | 29 | 3 | 0% | 1.2 | 18.8% | 12.1% | 6.7% | 1.0% | 4.34 | 3.59 | — |
| 2025 | 25 | MIX | 2 levels | 48 | 0 | 56 | 248 | 55 | 29 | 3 | 0% | 1.2 | 22.2% | 11.7% | 10.5% | 1.2% | 4.34 | 3.39 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 26 | MLB | COL | 67 | 0 | 70 | 296 | 56 | 40 | 8 | 0% | 1.0 | 19.0% | 13.4% | 5.6% | 2.6% | 5.02 | 5.02 | -0.2 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 27 | MLB | COL | 66 | 0 | 69 | 291 | 57 | 38 | 8 | 0% | 1.0 | 19.4% | 13.1% | 6.4% | 2.7% | 4.97 | 4.99 | -0.2 |
| 2028 | 28 | MLB | COL | 64 | 0 | 67 | 282 | 55 | 36 | 8 | 0% | 1.0 | 19.6% | 12.9% | 6.7% | 2.8% | 4.98 | 5.02 | -0.3 |
| 2027 | 27 | MLB | COL | 25 | 0 | 26 | 110 | 21 | 14 | 3 | 0% | 1.0 | 19.4% | 13.1% | 6.4% | 2.7% | 4.97 | 4.99 | -0.1 |
| 2028 | 28 | MLB | COL | 38 | 0 | 40 | 169 | 33 | 22 | 5 | 0% | 1.1 | 19.6% | 12.9% | 6.7% | 2.8% | 4.98 | 5.02 | -0.2 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 63 | 0 | 66 | 278 | 54 | 36 | 8 | 0% | 1.0 | 19.5% | 13.0% | 6.6% | 2.8% | 4.98 | 4.63 | +0.0 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 190 | 0 | 200 | 844 | 164 | 109 | 24 | 0% | 1.1 | 19.5% | 13.0% | 6.6% | 2.8% | 4.98 | 4.63 | +1.8 | ||
| Career | — | 166 | 0 | 186 | 846 | 169 | 134 | 19 | 0% | 1.1 | 20.0% | 15.8% | 4.2% | 2.2% | 4.65 | 4.64 | +1.7 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 178 | 0 | 200 | 910 | 182 | 144 | 20 | 0% | 1.1 | 20.0% | 15.8% | 4.2% | 2.2% | 4.65 | 4.64 | +1.8 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Bryce McGowan (OGILVIE) | — | — | 5.02 | 19.0% | 13.4% | 2.6% | — | 5.00 | 19.5% | 6.5% | 136 | -0.02 | — | — | — |
| Armando Rivero R 2027 · 4.39 FIP | 27 | SU | 4.39 | 18.7% | 13.5% | 2.1% | .256 | 2.81 | 32.9% | 19.8% | 68 | -1.58 | 2.81 | 125 | 91 |
| Gonzalez Germen R 2027 · 4.11 FIP | 27 | SU | 4.11 | 18.0% | 12.5% | 1.7% | .296 | 3.74 | 19.2% | 8.3% | 54 | -0.37 | 3.74 | 146 | 91 |
| Nolan Riggs R 2025 · 4.61 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.61 | 20.7% | 14.0% | 2.7% | .300 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.36 | 132 | 88 |
| David Goforth R 2026 · 4.11 FIP | 26 | SU | 4.11 | 17.4% | 9.8% | 2.3% | .287 | 4.58 | 14.1% | 3.6% | 184 | +0.47 | 3.92 | 256 | 86 |
| Juan Paniagua R 2026 · 4.51 FIP | 26 | SU | 4.51 | 17.7% | 14.7% | 1.9% | .246 | 4.88 | 12.9% | -1.0% | 29 | +0.37 | 4.51 | 151 | 86 |
| Grant Sides R 2026 · 4.01 FIP | 26 | SU | 4.01 | 17.2% | 13.2% | 1.2% | .266 | 3.89 | 22.4% | 10.5% | 62 | -0.12 | 3.24 | 159 | 86 |
| Brad Schreiber R 2026 · 4.10 FIP | 26 | SU | 4.10 | 17.3% | 12.7% | 1.6% | .312 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.91 | 171 | 86 |
| Eduard Santos R 2026 · 4.03 FIP | 26 | SU | 4.03 | 22.2% | 14.4% | 1.8% | .248 | 2.04 | 31.1% | 18.7% | 16 | -1.99 | 2.04 | 138 | 85 |
| Justin Courtney R 2026 · 5.26 FIP | 26 | SU | 5.26 | 16.8% | 12.8% | 3.6% | .331 | 9.13 | 18.4% | 7.1% | 21 | +3.87 | 4.53 | 108 | 85 |
| Nefi Ogando R 2026 · 3.92 FIP | 26 | SU | 3.92 | 17.0% | 11.6% | 1.4% | .266 | 4.19 | 14.7% | 3.1% | 40 | +0.27 | 3.92 | 103 | 85 |
| Mason Vinyard R 2026 · 4.36 FIP | 26 | SU | 4.36 | 21.8% | 14.5% | 2.3% | .254 | 4.21 | 13.5% | -4.3% | 15 | -0.15 | 3.58 | 169 | 85 |
| Nick Ernst R 2025 · 4.99 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.99 | 21.9% | 14.6% | 3.4% | .275 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.54 | 117 | 85 |
| Tanner Scheppers R 2028 · 4.39 FIP | 28 | SU | 4.39 | 17.7% | 11.2% | 2.5% | .263 | 4.65 | 15.7% | 9.0% | 48 | +0.26 | 4.39 | 101 | 85 |
| Keagan Gillies R 2026 · 3.85 FIP | 26 | SU | 3.85 | 21.1% | 13.3% | 1.6% | .306 | 3.61 | 20.1% | 13.5% | 54 | -0.24 | 2.88 | 157 | 85 |
| Spencer Bivens R 2028 · 4.81 FIP | 28 | SU | 4.81 | 19.8% | 13.5% | 3.0% | .265 | 3.88 | 18.2% | 10.2% | 272 | -0.93 | 3.53 | 365 | 84 |
| J.J. Hoover R 2027 · 4.26 FIP | 27 | SU | 4.26 | 19.7% | 11.4% | 2.5% | .211 | 4.51 | 24.6% | 14.3% | 98 | +0.25 | 4.26 | 258 | 84 |
| Dusty Isaacs R 2026 · 5.36 FIP | 26 | SU | 5.36 | 19.3% | 14.1% | 3.8% | .287 | 3.16 | 26.8% | 20.6% | 26 | -2.20 | 3.16 | 253 | 84 |
| Ryan Conroy R 2025 · 4.73 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.73 | 19.3% | 12.6% | 3.0% | .361 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.86 | 106 | 84 |
| Randall Delgado R 2026 · 3.88 FIP | 26 | SU | 3.88 | 20.2% | 9.8% | 2.3% | .303 | 3.96 | 19.2% | 12.5% | 143 | +0.08 | 3.05 | 290 | 84 |
| Confesor Lara R 2025 · 4.32 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.32 | 16.4% | 11.0% | 2.2% | .329 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.69 | 111 | 84 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 3 | 69 | 19.3% | 13.1% | 1.06 | 4.99 |
| John Gant ('21) | 4 | 85 | 20.1% | 12.5% | 0.79 | 3.91 |
| Fernando Rodney ('19) | 5 | 59 | 24.6% | 11.8% | 0.88 | 4.21 |
| Jorge De La Rosa ('18) | 4 | 98 | 19.5% | 10.3% | 1.22 | 4.52 |
| Miguel Castro ('23) | 7 | 59 | 20.8% | 12.0% | 1.04 | 3.99 |
| Travis Wood ('17) | 3 | 85 | 20.8% | 9.8% | 1.34 | 4.72 |
| Tyler Chatwood ('21) | 5 | 104 | 19.2% | 13.3% | 0.94 | 4.48 |