Bryce McGowan — OGILVIE

Bryce McGowan P Hartford Yard Goats

Age 26 RHP 6'1" / 205 lbs AA

2026 ROS PROJECTION0 act + 6 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 129121vR 113

ERA5.05

FIP5.05

K%19.0%

BB%13.6%

K-BB%5.4%

ROS IP6

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 6 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF4545

CTRL4040

CMD4545

K†4545

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2021	21	ROK MLE	ACL Rockies	4	0	4	15	4	2	0	0%	1.0	26.7%	13.3%	13.3%	0.0%	0.00	2.54	—
2021	21	ROK RAW	ACL Rockies	4	0	4	15	4	2	0	0%	1.0	26.7%	13.3%	13.3%	0.0%	0.00	2.60	—
2022	22	A MLE	Fresno Grizzlies	30	0	33	170	39	33	3	0%	1.1	17.0%	22.9%	-5.9%	2.4%	7.44	5.90	—
2022	22	A RAW	Fresno Grizzlies	30	0	33	170	39	33	3	0%	1.1	22.9%	19.4%	3.5%	1.8%	7.44	4.94	—
2023	23	MIX MLE	5 levels	43	0	50	221	65	30	4	0%	1.2	23.4%	16.0%	7.4%	2.3%	3.99	4.41	—
2023	23	MIX MLE	5 levels	43	0	50	221	65	30	4	0%	1.2	23.4%	16.0%	7.4%	2.3%	3.99	4.41	—
2023	23	MIX RAW	5 levels	43	0	50	221	65	30	4	0%	1.2	29.4%	13.6%	15.8%	1.8%	3.99	3.34	—
2024	24	AA MLE	Hartford Yard Goats	41	0	44	192	47	25	5	0%	1.1	19.8%	14.3%	5.5%	3.4%	4.12	5.11	—
2024	24	AA MLE	Hartford Yard Goats	41	0	44	192	47	25	5	0%	1.1	19.8%	14.3%	5.5%	3.4%	4.12	5.11	—
2024	24	AA RAW	Hartford Yard Goats	41	0	44	192	47	25	5	0%	1.1	24.5%	13.0%	11.5%	2.6%	4.12	4.15	—
2025	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	48	0	56	248	55	29	3	0%	1.2	18.8%	12.1%	6.7%	1.2%	4.34	3.71	—
2025	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	48	0	56	248	55	29	3	0%	1.2	18.8%	12.1%	6.7%	1.2%	4.34	3.71	—
2025	25	MIX RAW	2 levels	48	0	56	248	55	29	3	0%	1.2	22.2%	11.7%	10.5%	1.2%	4.34	3.39	—
▸ 2026 season — projected remainder (no 2026 stats recorded)
2026	26	MLB	COL	6	0	6	25	5	3	1	0%	1.0	19.0%	13.6%	5.4%	2.7%	5.05	5.05	-0.0
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	27	MLB MLE	COL	66	0	69	291	57	39	8	0%	1.0	19.4%	13.2%	6.2%	2.7%	5.00	5.02	-0.4
2028	28	MLB MLE	COL	64	0	67	282	55	37	8	0%	1.0	19.6%	13.1%	6.5%	2.9%	5.01	5.05	-0.4
2029	29	MLB MLE	COL	61	0	64	270	53	35	8	0%	1.0	19.5%	13.1%	6.4%	3.0%	5.07	5.14	-0.4
2027	27	MLB CTX	COL	25	0	26	110	21	15	3	0%	1.0	19.4%	13.2%	6.2%	2.7%	5.00	5.02	-0.1
2028	28	MLB CTX	COL	38	0	40	169	33	22	5	0%	1.1	19.6%	13.1%	6.5%	2.9%	5.01	5.05	-0.2
2029	29	MLB CTX	COL	43	0	45	190	37	25	6	0%	1.0	19.5%	13.1%	6.4%	3.0%	5.07	5.14	-0.3
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		106	0	111	468	91	61	14	0%	1.0	19.5%	13.1%	6.4%	2.9%	5.03	4.70	-0.2
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	164	110	25	0%	1.1	19.5%	13.1%	6.4%	2.9%	5.03	4.70	-0.4
Career	—	MLE		166	0	186	846	169	134	19	0%	1.1	20.0%	15.8%	4.2%	2.2%	4.65	4.63	-1.2
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		178	0	200	910	182	144	20	0%	1.1	20.0%	15.8%	4.2%	2.2%	4.65	4.63	-1.2

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Bryce McGowan (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.05	19.0%	13.6%	2.7%	—	5.07	19.5%	6.4%	200	+0.02	—	—	—
Gonzalez Germen R 2015 · 4.24 FIP	27	SU	4.24	18.0%	12.5%	1.9%	.296	3.88	19.2%	8.3%	54	-0.36	3.70	146	92
Armando Rivero R 2015 · 4.29 FIP	27	SU	4.29	18.7%	13.5%	1.9%	.256	2.70	32.9%	19.8%	68	-1.59	2.70	125	90
Nolan Riggs R 2018 · 4.49 FIP	25	SU	4.49	20.7%	14.0%	2.5%	.300	—	—	—	—	—	2.36	132	88
Max Alba R 2023 · 4.47 FIP	24	SU	4.47	20.6%	12.6%	2.7%	.290	5.15	16.7%	9.9%	244	+0.68	4.47	299	88
Grayson Thurman R 2023 · 4.63 FIP	24	SU	4.63	19.5%	14.1%	2.5%	.319	4.85	19.9%	10.5%	87	+0.22	4.58	132	87
Brad Schreiber R 2017 · 4.23 FIP	26	SU	4.23	17.3%	12.7%	1.8%	.312	—	—	—	—	—	3.81	171	86
Juan Paniagua R 2016 · 4.57 FIP	26	SU	4.57	17.7%	14.7%	2.0%	.246	4.75	12.9%	-1.0%	29	+0.18	4.57	151	86
Justin Courtney R 2022 · 5.11 FIP	26	SU	5.11	16.8%	12.8%	3.3%	.331	8.63	18.4%	7.1%	21	+3.52	4.58	108	86
Chase Plymell R 2023 · 4.23 FIP	25	SU	4.23	19.2%	13.0%	2.0%	.330	4.53	13.6%	5.9%	162	+0.30	3.85	291	86
David Goforth R 2015 · 3.98 FIP	26	SU	3.98	17.4%	9.8%	2.0%	.287	4.58	14.1%	3.6%	184	+0.60	3.98	256	85
Dylan Hall R 2023 · 3.98 FIP	25	SU	3.98	21.0%	13.2%	1.8%	.305	7.24	15.1%	2.4%	58	+3.26	3.47	153	85
Grant Sides R 2015 · 3.96 FIP	26	SU	3.96	17.2%	13.2%	1.2%	.266	3.83	22.4%	10.5%	62	-0.13	3.31	159	85
Dusty Isaacs R 2018 · 5.26 FIP	26	SU	5.26	19.3%	14.1%	3.7%	.287	3.16	26.8%	20.6%	26	-2.10	3.16	253	85
Nick Ernst R 2022 · 5.05 FIP	25	SU	5.05	21.9%	14.6%	3.5%	.275	—	—	—	—	—	3.56	117	85
Julian Arballo R 2015 · 5.13 FIP	27	SU	5.13	15.1%	13.8%	2.8%	.335	4.46	12.6%	0.6%	116	-0.67	4.45	214	85
Spencer Bivens R 2022 · 4.86 FIP	28	SU	4.86	19.8%	13.5%	3.1%	.265	3.86	18.0%	10.2%	272	-1.00	3.52	390	84
Nefi Ogando R 2015 · 3.87 FIP	26	SU	3.87	17.0%	11.6%	1.4%	.266	4.11	14.7%	3.1%	40	+0.24	3.87	103	84
Eduard Santos R 2016 · 3.86 FIP	26	SU	3.86	22.2%	14.4%	1.5%	.248	2.04	31.1%	18.7%	16	-1.82	2.04	138	84
Tanner Scheppers R 2015 · 4.37 FIP	28	SU	4.37	17.7%	11.2%	2.5%	.263	4.86	15.7%	9.0%	48	+0.49	4.37	101	84
Alec Barger R 2023 · 4.44 FIP	25	SU	4.44	21.5%	14.4%	2.4%	.326	4.67	18.6%	7.5%	79	+0.23	3.85	242	84

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.3	67	19.4%	13.2%	1.09	5.03
Miguel Castro ('23)	2.1	59	20.8%	12.0%	1.04	3.99
John Gant ('21)	1.7	85	20.1%	12.5%	0.79	3.91
José Ruiz ('24)	1.3	52	22.2%	10.4%	1.41	4.41
Amir Garrett ('23)	1.5	51	25.8%	13.4%	1.50	5.10
Steven Brault ('21)	1.7	57	18.8%	11.3%	1.00	4.77
Roansy Contreras ('24)	1.2	77	19.5%	10.1%	1.36	4.78