Bryce McGowan

P Hartford Yard Goats

Age 27 RHP 6'1" / 205 lbs AA

Overview

AAPROSPECT

ETA2029MLB%2%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2023	23	MIX5 levels	43	0	50	3.99	3.34	29.4%	13.6%	—	K 23.4% · BB 16.0% · FIP 4.41
2024	24	AACOL	41	0	44	4.12	4.15	24.5%	13.0%	—	K 19.8% · BB 14.3% · FIP 5.11
2025	25	MIX2 levels	48	0	56	4.34	3.39	22.2%	11.7%	—	K 18.8% · BB 12.1% · FIP 3.71
2026	26	No MLB games played
2027PROJ	27	MLBCOL	1	0	1	5.03	5.03	19.0%	12.8%	-0.0
2028PROJ38% MLB	28	MLBCOL	18	0	19	5.01	5.04	19.3%	12.6%	-0.1
2029PROJ56% MLB	29	MLBCOL	23	0	24	5.06	5.12	19.4%	12.6%	-0.2

Next 3 projected WAR -0.3Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Scouting grades · 20-80

Stuff45Control40Command45

CompsArmando Rivero (age 27) · Francisco Rodriguez (age 27) · Ricky Stone (age 27)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 129121vR 112

ERA5.03

FIP5.03

K%19.0%

BB%12.8%

K-BB%6.2%

Proj IP70

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 70 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF4545

CTRL4040

CMD4545

K†4545

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2021	21	ROK MLE	ACL Rockies	4	0	4	15	4	2	0	0%	1.0	26.7%	13.3%	13.3%	0.0%	0.00	2.54	—
2021	21	ROK RAW	ACL Rockies	4	0	4	15	4	2	0	0%	1.0	26.7%	13.3%	13.3%	0.0%	0.00	2.60	—
2022	22	A MLE	Fresno Grizzlies	30	0	33	170	39	33	3	0%	1.1	17.0%	22.9%	-5.9%	2.4%	7.44	5.90	—
2022	22	A RAW	Fresno Grizzlies	30	0	33	170	39	33	3	0%	1.1	22.9%	19.4%	3.5%	1.8%	7.44	4.94	—
2023	23	MIX MLE	5 levels	43	0	50	221	65	30	4	0%	1.2	23.4%	16.0%	7.4%	2.3%	3.99	4.41	—
2023	23	MIX RAW	5 levels	43	0	50	221	65	30	4	0%	1.2	29.4%	13.6%	15.8%	1.8%	3.99	3.34	—
2024	24	AA MLE	Hartford Yard Goats	41	0	44	192	47	25	5	0%	1.1	19.8%	14.3%	5.5%	3.4%	4.12	5.11	—
2024	24	AA MLE	Hartford Yard Goats	41	0	44	192	47	25	5	0%	1.1	19.8%	14.3%	5.5%	3.4%	4.12	5.11	—
2024	24	AA RAW	Hartford Yard Goats	41	0	44	192	47	25	5	0%	1.1	24.5%	13.0%	11.5%	2.6%	4.12	4.15	—
2025	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	48	0	56	248	55	29	3	0%	1.2	18.8%	12.1%	6.7%	1.2%	4.34	3.71	—
2025	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	48	0	56	248	55	29	3	0%	1.2	18.8%	12.1%	6.7%	1.2%	4.34	3.71	—
2025	25	MIX RAW	2 levels	48	0	56	248	55	29	3	0%	1.2	22.2%	11.7%	10.5%	1.2%	4.34	3.39	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	27	MLB	COL	1	0	1	4	1	1	0	0%	1.0	19.0%	12.8%	6.2%	2.8%	5.03	5.03	-0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	28	MLB MLE	COL	49	0	52	218	42	27	6	0%	1.1	19.3%	12.6%	6.7%	2.9%	5.01	5.04	-0.3
2029	29	MLB MLE	COL	41	0	43	182	35	23	6	0%	1.1	19.4%	12.6%	6.8%	3.1%	5.06	5.12	-0.3
2028	28	MLB CTX	COL	18	0	19	80	15	10	2	0%	1.1	19.3%	12.6%	6.7%	2.9%	5.01	5.04	-0.1
2029	29	MLB CTX	COL	23	0	24	101	20	13	3	0%	1.0	19.4%	12.6%	6.8%	3.1%	5.06	5.12	-0.2
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		41	0	43	183	35	23	5	0%	1.1	19.3%	12.6%	6.7%	3.0%	5.04	4.71	-0.1
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	161	106	23	0%	1.1	19.3%	12.6%	6.7%	3.0%	5.04	4.71	-0.4
Career	—	MLE		166	0	186	846	169	134	19	0%	1.1	20.0%	15.8%	4.2%	2.2%	4.65	4.63	-0.6
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		178	0	200	910	182	144	20	0%	1.1	20.0%	15.8%	4.2%	2.2%	4.65	4.63	-1.2

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2025 AAHartford Yard Goats · 55 IPFIP 3.22 → 3.71 (+0.48)K% 23.2% → 18.8%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	23.21%	—	×0.810	18.80%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	10.97%	—	×1.100	12.07%
HR / BF /BF	1.27%	÷1.255	×1.200	1.21%

Factors used: pitcher AA level factors — K ×0.81, BB ×1.10, HR ×1.20. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 151).

Result: FIP 3.22 → 3.71, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 AAHartford Yard Goats · 44 IPFIP 4.11 → 5.11 (+1.00)K% 24.5% → 19.8%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	24.48%	—	×0.810	19.83%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	13.02%	—	×1.100	14.32%
HR / BF /BF	2.60%	÷0.916	×1.200	3.41%

Result: FIP 4.11 → 5.11, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 AAHartford Yard Goats · 16 IPFIP 4.54 → 5.35 (+0.81)K% 24.4% → 19.8%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	24.39%	—	×0.810	19.76%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	17.07%	—	×1.100	18.78%
HR / BF /BF	2.44%	÷1.040	×1.200	2.81%

Result: FIP 4.54 → 5.35, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 A+Spokane Indians · 18 IPFIP 3.16 → 4.41 (+1.25)K% 36.6% → 28.2%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	36.62%	—	×0.770	28.20%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	12.68%	—	×1.150	14.58%
HR / BF /BF	2.82%	÷1.047	×1.250	3.36%

Factors used: pitcher A+ level factors — K ×0.77, BB ×1.15, HR ×1.25. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 109).

Result: FIP 3.16 → 4.41, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 AFresno Grizzlies · 13 IPFIP 1.96 → 2.90 (+0.94)K% 30.8% → 22.8%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	30.77%	—	×0.740	22.77%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	11.54%	—	×1.180	13.62%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷1.186	×1.300	0.00%

Factors used: pitcher A level factors — K ×0.74, BB ×1.18, HR ×1.30. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 137).

Result: FIP 1.96 → 2.90, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 AFresno Grizzlies · 33 IPFIP 4.59 → 5.90 (+1.31)K% 22.9% → 17.0%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	22.94%	—	×0.740	16.98%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	19.41%	—	×1.180	22.91%
HR / BF /BF	1.76%	÷0.947	×1.300	2.42%

Result: FIP 4.59 → 5.90, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Bryce McGowan (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.03	19.0%	12.8%	2.8%	—	5.08	19.3%	6.7%	95	+0.05	—	—	—
Armando Rivero R 2015 · 4.29 FIP	27	SU	4.29	18.7%	13.5%	1.9%	.256	2.70	32.9%	19.8%	68	-1.59	2.70	125	90
Francisco Rodriguez R 2010 · 4.33 FIP	27	SU	4.33	17.2%	11.0%	2.4%	.283	5.00	11.9%	3.4%	14	+0.67	3.16	334	89
Ricky Stone R 2002 · 4.16 FIP	27	SU	4.16	18.8%	9.3%	2.7%	.297	4.96	13.7%	7.4%	165	+0.80	4.16	243	86
Spencer Bivens R 2022 · 4.86 FIP	28	SU	4.86	19.8%	13.5%	3.1%	.265	3.85	18.1%	10.3%	272	-1.01	3.52	391	86
Luis Mateo R 2017 · 4.60 FIP	27	SU	4.60	17.6%	11.2%	2.9%	.309	5.55	8.6%	-4.8%	43	+0.95	3.48	160	86
Ronald Peña R 2019 · 4.55 FIP	27	SU	4.55	20.5%	12.6%	2.9%	.355	4.49	16.5%	6.1%	39	-0.06	3.72	187	85
Cole McDonald R 2024 · 5.01 FIP	27	SU	5.01	20.9%	12.7%	3.8%	.281	—	—	—	—	—	2.81	153	85
Nolan Riggs R 2018 · 4.49 FIP	25	SU	4.49	20.7%	14.0%	2.5%	.300	—	—	—	—	—	2.36	132	84
Julian Arballo R 2015 · 5.13 FIP	27	SU	5.13	15.1%	13.8%	2.8%	.335	4.46	12.6%	0.6%	116	-0.67	4.45	214	84
Cole Uvila R 2021 · 4.06 FIP	27	SU	4.06	20.4%	13.2%	1.8%	.360	3.16	20.2%	6.3%	44	-0.90	3.16	155	84
Joe Colón J R 2017 · 4.25 FIP	27	SU	4.25	20.4%	12.1%	2.4%	.315	—	—	—	—	—	3.27	113	83
Brad Schreiber R 2017 · 4.23 FIP	26	SU	4.23	17.3%	12.7%	1.8%	.312	—	—	—	—	—	3.81	171	83
Tyler Walker R 2004 · 4.28 FIP	28	SU	4.28	17.5%	8.4%	2.9%	.311	3.77	18.5%	10.4%	101	-0.51	2.38	289	83
Yoervis Medina R 2015 · 4.40 FIP	27	SU	4.40	18.2%	11.6%	2.5%	.315	—	—	—	—	—	3.01	186	83
Keagan Gillies R 2024 · 4.02 FIP	26	SU	4.02	21.1%	13.3%	1.9%	.306	3.91	20.0%	14.4%	74	-0.11	2.93	177	83
Roman Phansalkar R 2024 · 5.39 FIP	26	SU	5.39	15.8%	13.2%	3.6%	.294	4.33	18.2%	3.7%	31	-1.06	4.33	164	82
David Goforth R 2016 · 4.68 FIP	27	SU	4.68	14.5%	12.8%	2.1%	.333	4.52	13.9%	4.6%	122	-0.16	3.98	256	82
Derek Eitel R 2015 · 4.35 FIP	27	SU	4.35	18.1%	13.9%	1.8%	.338	4.26	19.7%	5.0%	113	-0.09	3.96	138	82
Wirfin Obispo R 2015 · 4.80 FIP	30	SU	4.80	18.6%	12.2%	3.1%	.292	1.31	28.6%	24.5%	126	-3.49	1.30	218	82
Theo Denlinger R 2023 · 4.19 FIP	27	SU	4.19	20.1%	15.1%	1.6%	.266	4.23	15.3%	9.9%	41	+0.04	2.92	140	82

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,234 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 480 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.8	55	19.2%	12.7%	1.12	5.03
Tyler Yates ('09)	1.2	62	19.7%	12.0%	0.94	5.12
Fred Lasher ('63-'71, -1 WAR*)	1.0	50	21.5%*	11.9%*	1.05*	4.68*
Bill Wilson ('69-'73, -0 WAR*)	1.3	52	20.3%*	11.5%*	1.13*	4.84*
Valerio De Los Santos ('08)	1.3	51	18.7%	11.5%	1.30	4.57
Gene Harris ('89-'95, -1 WAR*)	1.2	40	20.0%*	12.5%*	0.98*	4.96*
Mike Matthews ('05)	1.2	61	16.3%	11.3%	1.07	4.54