Bryce McGowan
P
Hartford Yard Goats
+0.1
WAR
Age 26
RHP
6'1" / 205 lbs
AA
peak 0.2 · 2026
ERA4.57
FIP4.57
xFIP—
SIERA—
K%21.3%
BB%11.2%
K-BB%10.1%
IP51
trajectory · 10 yrs
0.2peak
2026
STUF4545
CTRL4040
CMD4545
K†5050
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | 21 | ROK | ACL Rockies | 4 | 0 | 4 | 15 | 4 | 2 | 0 | — | — | — | 0.00 | — | — |
| 2022 | 22 | A | Fresno Grizzlies | 30 | 0 | 33 | 170 | 39 | 33 | 3 | 17.0% | 22.9% | 2.4% | 7.44 | 5.90 | -0.4 |
| 2023 | 23 | AAA | Albuquerque Isotopes | 43 | 0 | 50 | 221 | 65 | 30 | 4 | 23.4% | 16.0% | 2.3% | 3.99 | 4.42 | +0.3 |
| 2024 | 24 | AA | Hartford Yard Goats | 41 | 0 | 44 | 192 | 47 | 25 | 5 | 19.8% | 14.3% | 3.4% | 4.12 | 5.12 | -0.1 |
| 2025 | 25 | AAA | Albuquerque Isotopes | 48 | 0 | 56 | 248 | 55 | 29 | 3 | 18.8% | 12.1% | 1.3% | 4.34 | 3.74 | +0.8 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 26 | MLB | COL | 51 | — | 51 | 214 | 44 | 26 | 6 | 20.7% | 12.1% | 2.7% | 4.73 | 4.73 | +0.1 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 27 | MLB | COL | 50 | — | 50 | 213 | 45 | 25 | 6 | 21.0% | 11.9% | 2.7% | 4.70 | 4.70 | +0.1 |
| 2028 | 28 | MLB | COL | 50 | — | 50 | 209 | 44 | 25 | 6 | 21.1% | 11.7% | 2.8% | 4.69 | 4.70 | +0.1 |
| 2029 | 29 | MLB | COL | 48 | — | 48 | 205 | 43 | 24 | 6 | 21.1% | 11.7% | 2.8% | 4.70 | 4.72 | +0.1 |
| 2030 | 30 | MLB | COL | 47 | — | 47 | 198 | 42 | 23 | 6 | 21.0% | 11.7% | 2.9% | 4.74 | 4.78 | +0.1 |
| 2031 | 31 | MLB | COL | 45 | — | 45 | 192 | 40 | 23 | 6 | 20.7% | 11.8% | 3.0% | 4.81 | 4.85 | +0.1 |
| 2032 | 32 | MLB | COL | 44 | — | 44 | 184 | 38 | 22 | 6 | 20.5% | 12.0% | 3.0% | 4.89 | 4.94 | +0.0 |
| 2033 | 33 | MLB | COL | 42 | — | 42 | 176 | 35 | 21 | 5 | 20.2% | 12.2% | 3.1% | 4.98 | 5.04 | -0.0 |
| 2034 | 34 | MLB | COL | 40 | — | 40 | 167 | 33 | 21 | 5 | 19.8% | 12.4% | 3.2% | 5.08 | 5.15 | -0.1 |
| 2035 | 35 | MLB | COL | 37 | — | 37 | 157 | 30 | 20 | 5 | 19.4% | 12.6% | 3.3% | 5.19 | 5.27 | -0.1 |
| 2036 | 36 | MLB | COL | 35 | — | 35 | 147 | 28 | 19 | 5 | 19.0% | 12.8% | 3.5% | 5.32 | 5.40 | -0.2 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 166 | 0 | 186 | 846 | 169 | 134 | 19 | 20.0% | 15.8% | 2.2% | 4.65 | 4.64 | +1.4 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 178 | 0 | 200 | 910 | 182 | 144 | 20 | 20.0% | 15.8% | 2.2% | 4.65 | 4.64 | +1.5 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Bryce McGowan (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.73 | 20.7% | 12.1% | 2.7% | — | 4.71 | 21.1% | 9.3% | 148 | -0.02 | — | — | — |
| Jesus Pirela R 2026 · 3.85 FIP | 26 | SW | 3.85 | 23.7% | 11.6% | 2.3% | .305 | 3.92 | 17.1% | 13.9% | 45 | +0.07 | 3.23 | 161 | 90 |
| Ronald Peña R 2026 · 4.22 FIP | 26 | SW | 4.22 | 23.4% | 11.6% | 3.0% | .273 | 4.53 | 18.7% | 7.1% | 88 | +0.31 | 3.70 | 187 | 89 |
| Collin Baumgartner R 2026 · 3.76 FIP | 26 | SW | 3.76 | 23.9% | 12.3% | 2.0% | .291 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.99 | 117 | 88 |
| Nolan Riggs R 2025 · 4.54 FIP | 25 | SW | 4.54 | 20.7% | 14.0% | 2.6% | .300 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.36 | 132 | 88 |
| Grant Black R 2027 · 4.46 FIP | 27 | SW | 4.46 | 19.0% | 13.9% | 2.2% | .327 | 5.46 | 15.2% | 3.1% | 156 | +1.00 | 4.46 | 215 | 88 |
| Layne Somsen R 2026 · 3.74 FIP | 26 | SW | 3.74 | 19.5% | 12.5% | 1.3% | .265 | 4.00 | 19.9% | 6.7% | 92 | +0.26 | 3.66 | 154 | 88 |
| Armando Rivero R 2027 · 4.26 FIP | 27 | SW | 4.26 | 18.7% | 13.5% | 1.9% | .256 | 2.69 | 32.9% | 19.8% | 68 | -1.57 | 2.69 | 125 | 87 |
| Alex Hoppe R 2026 · 3.89 FIP | 26 | SW | 3.89 | 22.8% | 12.7% | 2.0% | .327 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.89 | 176 | 87 |
| Randall Delgado R 2026 · 3.83 FIP | 26 | SW | 3.83 | 20.2% | 9.8% | 2.2% | .303 | 4.06 | 19.2% | 12.5% | 143 | +0.23 | 3.05 | 290 | 87 |
| Gonzalez Germen R 2027 · 4.29 FIP | 27 | SW | 4.29 | 18.0% | 12.5% | 2.1% | .296 | 3.94 | 19.2% | 8.3% | 54 | -0.35 | 3.68 | 146 | 87 |
| Jose Rafael De Paula R 2026 · 4.45 FIP | 26 | SW | 4.45 | 19.9% | 9.8% | 3.3% | .278 | 4.78 | 22.7% | 10.3% | 89 | +0.33 | 2.65 | 315 | 87 |
| David Goforth R 2026 · 4.06 FIP | 26 | SW | 4.06 | 17.4% | 9.8% | 2.2% | .287 | 4.58 | 14.1% | 3.6% | 184 | +0.52 | 4.06 | 256 | 86 |
| Brett McKinney R 2026 · 4.57 FIP | 26 | SW | 4.57 | 18.5% | 9.9% | 3.2% | .287 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.43 | 183 | 86 |
| Ryan Conroy R 2025 · 4.76 FIP | 25 | SW | 4.76 | 19.3% | 12.6% | 3.1% | .361 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.04 | 106 | 86 |
| Ryan Middendorf R 2026 · 4.93 FIP | 26 | SW | 4.93 | 19.6% | 10.5% | 3.9% | .293 | 4.50 | 12.8% | -1.5% | 34 | -0.43 | 1.27 | 164 | 86 |
| Daniel Corcino R 2026 · 3.97 FIP | 26 | SU | 3.97 | 21.7% | 11.4% | 2.3% | .292 | 4.93 | 19.0% | 7.9% | 223 | +0.96 | 3.84 | 299 | 86 |
| Burch Smith R 2027 · 3.92 FIP | 27 | SW | 3.92 | 19.5% | 12.6% | 1.6% | .234 | 4.45 | 22.2% | 10.5% | 192 | +0.53 | 3.42 | 365 | 86 |
| J.J. Hoover R 2027 · 4.26 FIP | 27 | SW | 4.26 | 19.7% | 11.4% | 2.5% | .211 | 4.46 | 24.6% | 14.3% | 98 | +0.20 | 4.26 | 258 | 86 |
| Nick Ernst R 2025 · 5.04 FIP | 25 | SW | 5.04 | 21.9% | 14.6% | 3.5% | .275 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.55 | 117 | 86 |
| Colton Murray R 2026 · 4.05 FIP | 26 | SW | 4.05 | 21.2% | 9.4% | 2.8% | .295 | 4.28 | 21.8% | 13.1% | 41 | +0.23 | 3.34 | 187 | 85 |
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.