Keagan Gillies — OGILVIE

Keagan Gillies P Chesapeake Baysox

Age 28 RHP 6'8" / 255 lbs AA peak 0.1 · 2026

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 35 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 117108vR 100

ERA4.39

FIP4.39

K%20.4%

BB%8.6%

K-BB%11.8%

ROS IP35

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 35 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†5050

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2021	23	ROK MLE	FCL Orioles Black	1	1	1	3	1	0	0	100%	1.0	33.3%	0.0%	33.3%	0.0%	0.00	0.29	—
2021	23	ROK RAW	FCL Orioles Black	1	1	1	3	1	0	0	100%	1.0	33.3%	0.0%	33.3%	0.0%	0.00	1.10	—
2022	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	9	5	20	90	22	7	3	56%	2.3	17.2%	11.3%	5.9%	4.7%	4.87	5.68	—
2022	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	9	5	20	90	22	7	3	56%	2.3	24.4%	7.8%	16.7%	3.3%	4.87	3.89	—
2023	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	33	0	41	157	61	14	3	0%	1.2	30.8%	9.9%	20.8%	2.1%	2.43	2.93	—
2023	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	33	0	41	157	61	14	3	0%	1.2	30.8%	9.9%	20.8%	2.1%	2.43	2.93	—
2023	25	MIX RAW	2 levels	33	0	41	157	61	14	3	0%	1.2	38.9%	8.9%	29.9%	1.9%	2.43	2.09	—
2024	26	AA MLE	Bowie Baysox	42	0	47	207	54	25	4	0%	1.1	21.1%	13.3%	7.8%	1.9%	4.94	4.02	—
2024	26	AA MLE	Bowie Baysox	42	0	47	207	54	25	4	0%	1.1	21.1%	13.3%	7.8%	1.9%	4.94	4.02	—
2024	26	AA RAW	Bowie Baysox	42	0	47	207	54	25	4	0%	1.1	26.1%	12.1%	14.0%	1.9%	4.94	3.50	—
2025	27	MIX MLE	2 levels	42	0	54	211	51	13	5	0%	1.3	19.7%	5.9%	13.8%	2.6%	2.68	3.59	—
2025	27	MIX MLE	2 levels	42	0	54	211	51	13	5	0%	1.3	19.7%	5.9%	13.8%	2.6%	2.68	3.59	—
2025	27	MIX RAW	2 levels	42	0	54	211	51	13	5	0%	1.3	24.2%	6.2%	18.0%	2.4%	2.68	3.14	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	28	AA MLE	Chesapeake Baysox	29	0	33	140	39	9	4	0%	1.1	19.3%	5.0%	14.3%	5.5%	4.68	5.09	—
YTD	28	AA MLE	Chesapeake Baysox	29	0	33	140	39	9	4	0%	1.1	19.3%	5.0%	14.3%	5.5%	4.68	5.09	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	28	A RAW	BAL	5	0	5	21	5	2	0	0%	1.1	23.8%	9.5%	14.3%	0.0%	1.69	2.30	—
2026	28	A+ RAW	BAL	7	0	8	31	13	3	0	0%	1.2	41.9%	9.7%	32.3%	0.0%	1.08	0.78	—
2026	28	AA RAW	BAL	17	0	19	88	21	4	4	0%	1.1	23.9%	4.5%	19.3%	4.5%	7.11	4.16	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	29	MLB MLE	BAL	32	0	33	141	29	12	4	0%	1.0	20.4%	8.8%	11.6%	3.0%	4.47	4.52	+0.0
2027	29	MLB CTX	BAL	10	0	10	42	9	4	1	0%	1.0	20.4%	8.8%	11.6%	3.0%	4.47	4.52	+0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		10	0	10	44	9	4	1	0%	1.0	20.5%	8.8%	11.6%	3.0%	4.47	4.14	+0.1
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	172	77	19	0%	1.1	20.5%	8.8%	11.6%	3.0%	4.47	4.14	+1.0
Career	—	MLE		156	6	196	808	177	73	25	4%	1.3	21.9%	9.0%	12.9%	3.0%	3.73	4.05	+0.0
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		159	6	200	826	181	74	25	4%	1.3	21.9%	9.0%	12.9%	3.0%	3.73	4.05	+0.1

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Keagan Gillies (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.39	20.4%	8.6%	2.8%	—	4.52	20.4%	11.6%	33	+0.13	—	—	—
Rob Scahill R 2015 · 3.91 FIP	28	SU	3.91	16.9%	7.7%	2.3%	.288	3.34	17.9%	10.1%	171	-0.57	3.06	201	89
Gerardo Sanchez R 2017 · 3.47 FIP	28	SU	3.47	21.6%	8.4%	2.1%	.355	3.58	20.5%	15.1%	56	+0.11	2.65	137	87
Jaye Chapman R 2015 · 3.32 FIP	28	SU	3.32	21.6%	8.5%	1.8%	.276	4.08	20.3%	11.3%	85	+0.76	3.25	150	87
Kaleb Bowman R 2023 · 3.88 FIP	26	SU	3.88	22.0%	7.5%	3.1%	.333	4.55	17.5%	6.5%	168	+0.67	3.88	202	87
Tyler Sturdevant R 2015 · 4.37 FIP	29	SU	4.37	21.3%	8.5%	3.6%	.241	3.97	18.5%	11.9%	118	-0.40	3.44	149	86
Marc Magliaro R 2018 · 3.94 FIP	28	SU	3.94	19.6%	7.3%	2.9%	.307	—	—	—	—	—	3.94	125	86
Matt Ramsey R 2018 · 3.78 FIP	28	SU	3.78	24.9%	8.8%	3.0%	.276	2.42	21.7%	12.6%	34	-1.36	2.42	125	85
Cody Satterwhite R 2015 · 3.71 FIP	28	SU	3.71	20.2%	9.8%	1.9%	.333	4.04	17.7%	10.2%	75	+0.33	3.69	147	85
Ryan Cook R 2015 · 4.73 FIP	28	SU	4.73	16.5%	9.9%	3.2%	.297	3.96	25.1%	14.3%	50	-0.77	3.96	102	85
Francisco Mendoza R 2016 · 3.81 FIP	28	SU	3.81	17.9%	7.7%	2.3%	.344	—	—	—	—	—	3.13	120	84
Miguel Mejia R 2016 · 3.37 FIP	28	SU	3.37	19.6%	7.2%	1.8%	.359	5.21	12.8%	2.8%	47	+1.84	3.37	108	84
Chris Martin R 2015 · 3.24 FIP	29	SU	3.24	18.1%	7.0%	1.4%	.319	3.04	20.9%	19.2%	42	-0.20	1.76	416	84
Andrew Robinson R 2016 · 3.19 FIP	28	SU	3.19	22.2%	7.9%	1.8%	.247	4.32	23.4%	14.6%	39	+1.13	3.19	160	84
Michael Mariot R 2017 · 3.51 FIP	28	SU	3.51	22.6%	9.0%	2.1%	.327	4.79	20.9%	11.8%	74	+1.28	2.40	676	83
A.J. Schugel R 2017 · 4.01 FIP	28	SU	4.01	20.1%	8.1%	2.9%	.307	6.37	17.6%	10.6%	13	+2.36	2.80	299	83
David Hernandez R 2015 · 4.40 FIP	30	SU	4.40	22.9%	7.6%	4.1%	.287	3.17	24.9%	18.4%	192	-1.23	2.60	268	83
Sam Dyson R 2016 · 3.42 FIP	28	SU	3.42	19.3%	8.1%	1.7%	.287	3.76	18.9%	11.9%	187	+0.34	2.66	333	82
Al Alburquerque R 2015 · 3.54 FIP	29	SU	3.54	21.4%	11.1%	1.5%	.330	3.23	21.3%	12.5%	114	-0.31	2.84	228	82
Pedro Beato R 2015 · 3.47 FIP	28	SU	3.47	17.4%	7.5%	1.6%	.276	3.93	19.0%	11.2%	192	+0.46	3.47	295	82
Cory Gearrin R 2015 · 3.52 FIP	29	SU	3.52	22.1%	7.5%	2.5%	.283	3.54	22.2%	13.6%	174	+0.02	3.15	272	82

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.3	34	20.4%	8.7%	1.13	4.43
Trevor Gott ('23)	1.0	51	22.0%	7.4%	0.79	3.97
Josh Winckowski ('24)	1.2	77	18.3%	8.2%	1.13	4.21
Noé Ramirez ('22)	1.3	52	24.8%	9.0%	1.33	4.19
José Ruiz ('24)	1.3	52	22.2%	10.4%	1.41	4.41
Jarlín García ('22)	1.5	61	19.6%	7.8%	1.33	3.79
Joe Biagini ('19)	1.6	81	19.1%	7.8%	1.28	4.86