Keagan Gillies
P
Chesapeake Baysox
Age 28
RHP
6'8" / 255 lbs
AA
peak 0.1 · 2026
2026 ROS PROJECTION22 act + 35 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 117108vR 99
ERA4.33
FIP4.33
K%21.7%
BB%9.1%
K-BB%12.7%
ROS IP35
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 57 IP
Grades · Contract
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | 23 | ROK | FCL Orioles Black | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 100% | 1.0 | 33.3% | 0.0% | 33.3% | 0.0% | 0.00 | 0.29 | — |
| 2021 | 23 | ROK | FCL Orioles Black | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 100% | 1.0 | 33.3% | 0.0% | 33.3% | 0.0% | 0.00 | 1.10 | — |
| 2022 | 24 | MIX | 2 levels | 9 | 5 | 20 | 90 | 22 | 7 | 3 | 56% | 2.3 | 17.2% | 11.3% | 5.9% | 4.3% | 4.87 | 5.41 | — |
| 2022 | 24 | MIX | 2 levels | 9 | 5 | 20 | 90 | 22 | 7 | 3 | 56% | 2.3 | 24.4% | 7.8% | 16.7% | 3.3% | 4.87 | 3.89 | — |
| 2023 | 25 | MIX | 2 levels | 33 | 0 | 41 | 157 | 61 | 14 | 3 | 0% | 1.2 | 30.8% | 9.9% | 20.8% | 2.0% | 2.43 | 2.88 | — |
| 2023 | 25 | MIX | 2 levels | 33 | 0 | 41 | 157 | 61 | 14 | 3 | 0% | 1.2 | 38.9% | 8.9% | 29.9% | 1.9% | 2.43 | 2.09 | — |
| 2024 | 26 | AA | Bowie Baysox | 42 | 0 | 47 | 207 | 54 | 25 | 4 | 0% | 1.1 | 21.1% | 13.3% | 7.8% | 1.5% | 4.94 | 3.85 | — |
| 2024 | 26 | AA | Bowie Baysox | 42 | 0 | 47 | 207 | 54 | 25 | 4 | 0% | 1.1 | 26.1% | 12.1% | 14.0% | 1.9% | 4.94 | 3.50 | — |
| 2025 | 27 | MIX | 2 levels | 42 | 0 | 54 | 211 | 51 | 13 | 5 | 0% | 1.3 | 20.1% | 6.6% | 13.6% | 2.5% | 2.68 | 3.61 | — |
| 2025 | 27 | MIX | 2 levels | 42 | 0 | 54 | 211 | 51 | 13 | 5 | 0% | 1.3 | 24.2% | 6.2% | 18.0% | 2.4% | 2.68 | 3.14 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 28 | AA | Chesapeake Baysox | 20 | 0 | 22 | 93 | 28 | 8 | 1 | 0% | 1.1 | — | — | — | — | 4.03 | — | — |
| ROS | 28 | MLB | BAL | 33 | 0 | 35 | 148 | 32 | 13 | 4 | 0% | 1.1 | 21.7% | 9.1% | 12.7% | 2.8% | 4.33 | 4.33 | +0.1 |
| ROS | 28 | MLB | BAL | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0% | 1.0 | 21.7% | 9.1% | 12.7% | 2.8% | 4.33 | 4.33 | +0.0 |
| 2026 TOT | 28 | MLB | BAL | — | — | 57 | 241 | 60 | 21 | 5 | — | — | 25.0% | 8.9% | 16.1% | 2.1% | 4.21 | 2.64 | +1.3 |
| 2026 FULL | 28 | MLB | BAL | — | — | 1 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | — | — | 21.7% | 9.1% | 12.7% | 2.8% | 4.33 | 3.95 | +0.0 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 29 | MLB | BAL | 32 | 0 | 33 | 141 | 31 | 13 | 4 | 0% | 1.0 | 21.7% | 9.3% | 12.3% | 3.0% | 4.41 | 4.46 | +0.0 |
| 2027 | 29 | MLB | BAL | 10 | 0 | 10 | 42 | 9 | 4 | 1 | 0% | 1.0 | 21.7% | 9.3% | 12.3% | 3.0% | 4.41 | 4.46 | +0.0 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 11 | 0 | 11 | 47 | 10 | 4 | 1 | 0% | 1.0 | 21.7% | 9.3% | 12.4% | 3.0% | 4.40 | 4.07 | +0.1 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 190 | 0 | 200 | 844 | 179 | 72 | 18 | 0% | 1.1 | 21.7% | 9.3% | 12.4% | 3.0% | 4.40 | 4.07 | +3.1 | ||
| Career | — | 147 | 6 | 185 | 761 | 179 | 75 | 17 | 4% | 1.3 | 23.5% | 9.9% | 13.7% | 2.2% | 3.59 | 3.56 | +4.0 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 159 | 6 | 200 | 821 | 193 | 81 | 18 | 4% | 1.3 | 23.5% | 9.9% | 13.7% | 2.2% | 3.59 | 3.56 | +4.3 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Keagan Gillies (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.33 | 21.7% | 9.1% | 2.8% | — | 4.46 | 21.7% | 12.3% | 33 | +0.13 | — | — | — |
| Gerardo Sanchez R 2026 · 3.49 FIP | 28 | SU | 3.49 | 21.6% | 8.4% | 2.1% | .355 | 3.55 | 20.5% | 15.1% | 56 | +0.06 | 2.51 | 137 | 88 |
| Jaye Chapman R 2026 · 3.36 FIP | 28 | SU | 3.36 | 21.6% | 8.5% | 1.8% | .276 | 4.03 | 20.3% | 11.3% | 85 | +0.67 | 3.27 | 150 | 88 |
| Matt Ramsey R 2026 · 3.87 FIP | 28 | SU | 3.87 | 24.9% | 8.8% | 3.2% | .276 | 2.42 | 21.7% | 12.6% | 34 | -1.45 | 2.42 | 125 | 88 |
| Tyler Sturdevant R 2027 · 4.07 FIP | 29 | SU | 4.07 | 21.3% | 8.5% | 3.1% | .241 | 4.06 | 18.5% | 11.9% | 118 | -0.01 | 3.28 | 149 | 87 |
| Rob Scahill R 2026 · 3.83 FIP | 28 | SU | 3.83 | 16.9% | 7.7% | 2.1% | .288 | 3.34 | 17.9% | 10.1% | 171 | -0.49 | 2.93 | 201 | 85 |
| Michael Mariot R 2026 · 3.46 FIP | 28 | SU | 3.46 | 22.6% | 9.0% | 2.1% | .327 | 4.77 | 20.9% | 11.8% | 74 | +1.31 | 2.32 | 676 | 84 |
| Blake Treinen R 2026 · 3.32 FIP | 28 | SU | 3.32 | 24.0% | 9.5% | 1.9% | .271 | 2.99 | 26.0% | 17.7% | 215 | -0.33 | 1.51 | 544 | 84 |
| Marc Magliaro R 2026 · 3.72 FIP | 28 | SU | 3.72 | 19.6% | 7.3% | 2.5% | .307 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.62 | 125 | 84 |
| Cody Satterwhite R 2026 · 3.62 FIP | 28 | SU | 3.62 | 20.2% | 9.8% | 1.8% | .333 | 4.06 | 17.7% | 10.2% | 75 | +0.44 | 3.62 | 147 | 84 |
| David Hernandez R 2028 · 4.32 FIP | 30 | SU | 4.32 | 22.9% | 7.6% | 4.0% | .287 | 3.20 | 24.9% | 18.4% | 192 | -1.12 | 2.56 | 268 | 84 |
| Al Alburquerque R 2027 · 3.58 FIP | 29 | SU | 3.58 | 21.4% | 11.1% | 1.6% | .330 | 3.18 | 21.3% | 12.5% | 114 | -0.40 | 2.76 | 228 | 83 |
| Miguel Mejia R 2026 · 3.46 FIP | 28 | SU | 3.46 | 19.6% | 7.2% | 2.0% | .359 | 5.26 | 12.8% | 2.8% | 47 | +1.80 | 3.46 | 108 | 83 |
| A.J. Schugel R 2026 · 4.18 FIP | 28 | SU | 4.18 | 20.1% | 8.1% | 3.2% | .307 | 6.22 | 17.6% | 10.6% | 13 | +2.04 | 2.75 | 299 | 83 |
| Sam Dyson R 2026 · 3.43 FIP | 28 | SU | 3.43 | 19.3% | 8.1% | 1.7% | .287 | 3.77 | 18.9% | 11.9% | 187 | +0.34 | 2.67 | 333 | 83 |
| Ryan Brasier R 2026 · 4.03 FIP | 28 | SU | 4.03 | 25.0% | 7.7% | 3.8% | .289 | 3.03 | 24.2% | 17.9% | 130 | -1.00 | 2.27 | 426 | 83 |
| Cory Gearrin R 2027 · 3.55 FIP | 29 | SU | 3.55 | 22.1% | 7.5% | 2.5% | .283 | 3.52 | 22.2% | 13.6% | 174 | -0.03 | 3.15 | 272 | 82 |
| Chris Martin R 2027 · 3.28 FIP | 29 | SU | 3.28 | 18.1% | 7.0% | 1.5% | .319 | 3.06 | 20.9% | 19.2% | 42 | -0.22 | 1.76 | 416 | 82 |
| Francisco Mendoza R 2026 · 4.11 FIP | 28 | SU | 4.11 | 17.9% | 7.7% | 2.8% | .344 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.13 | 120 | 82 |
| Chaz Roe R 2026 · 3.16 FIP | 28 | SU | 3.16 | 20.7% | 8.4% | 1.3% | .300 | 2.78 | 28.4% | 20.7% | 140 | -0.38 | 1.69 | 257 | 82 |
| Jonathan Broxton R 2029 · 3.57 FIP | 31 | SU | 3.57 | 24.5% | 8.2% | 2.7% | .325 | 3.78 | 21.7% | 13.5% | 76 | +0.21 | 3.57 | 137 | 82 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 2 | 34 | 21.7% | 9.2% | 1.12 | 4.37 |
| Carlos Torres ('17) | 3 | 71 | 20.1% | 9.0% | 0.97 | 3.77 |
| Randall Delgado ('17) | 3 | 70 | 22.2% | 9.2% | 0.90 | 3.78 |
| Brandon Maurer ('18) | 4 | 53 | 21.5% | 8.8% | 1.06 | 5.20 |
| Jim Johnson ('18) | 4 | 63 | 20.7% | 8.0% | 0.90 | 4.19 |
| Scott Oberg ('19) | 5 | 51 | 21.5% | 9.3% | 0.91 | 3.85 |
| Matt Albers ('19) | 5 | 49 | 20.3% | 8.3% | 1.37 | 4.21 |