Keagan Gillies
P Chesapeake Baysox| Year | Age | Lvl / Team | G | GS | IP | ERA | FIP | K% | BB% | WAR | MLE rates |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 26 | AABowie Baysox | 42 | 0 | 47 | 4.94 | 3.50 | 26.1% | 12.1% | — | K 21.1% · BB 13.3% · FIP 4.02 |
| 2025 | 27 | MIX2 levels | 42 | 0 | 54 | 2.68 | 3.14 | 24.2% | 6.2% | — | K 20.0% · BB 5.9% · FIP 3.57 |
| 2026 | 28 | MIX3 levels | 30 | 0 | 34 | 4.54 | 3.01 | 28.3% | 6.2% | — | K 20.0% · BB 4.7% · FIP 4.84 |
| 2027PROJ | 29 | MLBBAL | — | — | 0 | 4.37 | 4.37 | 20.3% | 7.0% | — | |
| 2028PROJ31% MLB | 30 | MLBBAL | 6 | 0 | 6 | 4.47 | 4.54 | 20.2% | 7.5% | 0.0 |
Grades · Contract
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments) | |||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year) | |||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far) | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2021 | 23 | ROK MLE | FCL Orioles Black | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 100% | 1.0 | 33.3% | 0.0% | 33.3% | 0.0% | 0.00 | 0.29 | — |
| 2021 | 23 | ROK RAW | FCL Orioles Black | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 100% | 1.0 | 33.3% | 0.0% | 33.3% | 0.0% | 0.00 | 1.10 | — |
| 2022 | 24 | MIX MLE | 2 levels | 9 | 5 | 20 | 90 | 22 | 7 | 3 | 56% | 2.3 | 17.2% | 11.3% | 5.9% | 4.7% | 4.87 | 5.68 | — |
| 2022 | 24 | MIX RAW | 2 levels | 9 | 5 | 20 | 90 | 22 | 7 | 3 | 56% | 2.3 | 24.4% | 7.8% | 16.7% | 3.3% | 4.87 | 3.89 | — |
| 2023 | 25 | MIX MLE | 2 levels | 33 | 0 | 41 | 157 | 61 | 14 | 3 | 0% | 1.2 | 30.8% | 9.9% | 20.8% | 2.1% | 2.43 | 2.93 | — |
| 2023 | 25 | MIX RAW | 2 levels | 33 | 0 | 41 | 157 | 61 | 14 | 3 | 0% | 1.2 | 38.9% | 8.9% | 29.9% | 1.9% | 2.43 | 2.09 | — |
| 2024 | 26 | AA MLE | Bowie Baysox | 42 | 0 | 47 | 207 | 54 | 25 | 4 | 0% | 1.1 | 21.1% | 13.3% | 7.8% | 1.9% | 4.94 | 4.02 | — |
| 2024 | 26 | AA MLE | Bowie Baysox | 42 | 0 | 47 | 207 | 54 | 25 | 4 | 0% | 1.1 | 21.1% | 13.3% | 7.8% | 1.9% | 4.94 | 4.02 | — |
| 2024 | 26 | AA RAW | Bowie Baysox | 42 | 0 | 47 | 207 | 54 | 25 | 4 | 0% | 1.1 | 26.1% | 12.1% | 14.0% | 1.9% | 4.94 | 3.50 | — |
| 2025 | 27 | MIX MLE | 2 levels | 42 | 0 | 54 | 211 | 51 | 13 | 5 | 0% | 1.3 | 20.0% | 5.9% | 14.1% | 2.6% | 2.68 | 3.57 | — |
| 2025 | 27 | MIX MLE | 2 levels | 42 | 0 | 54 | 211 | 51 | 13 | 5 | 0% | 1.3 | 20.0% | 5.9% | 14.1% | 2.6% | 2.68 | 3.57 | — |
| 2025 | 27 | MIX RAW | 2 levels | 42 | 0 | 54 | 211 | 51 | 13 | 5 | 0% | 1.3 | 24.2% | 6.2% | 18.0% | 2.4% | 2.68 | 3.14 | — |
| 2026 | 28 | MIX MLE | 3 levels | 30 | 0 | 34 | 145 | 41 | 9 | 4 | 0% | 1.1 | 20.0% | 4.7% | 15.3% | 5.2% | 4.54 | 4.84 | — |
| 2026 | 28 | MIX MLE | 3 levels | 30 | 0 | 34 | 145 | 41 | 9 | 4 | 0% | 1.1 | 20.0% | 4.7% | 15.3% | 5.2% | 4.54 | 4.84 | — |
| 2026 | 28 | MIX RAW | 3 levels | 30 | 0 | 34 | 145 | 41 | 9 | 4 | 0% | 1.1 | 28.3% | 6.2% | 22.1% | 2.8% | 4.54 | 3.01 | — |
| ▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded) | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 29 | MLB | BAL | — | — | 0 | — | — | — | — | — | — | 20.3% | 7.0% | 13.3% | 3.1% | 4.37 | 4.37 | — |
| ▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%) | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2028 | 30 | MLB MLE | BAL | 17 | 0 | 18 | 77 | 16 | 6 | 3 | 0% | 1.1 | 20.2% | 7.5% | 12.7% | 3.3% | 4.47 | 4.54 | +0.0 |
| 2028 | 30 | MLB CTX | BAL | 6 | 0 | 6 | 25 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 0% | 1.0 | 20.2% | 7.5% | 12.7% | 3.3% | 4.47 | 4.54 | +0.0 |
| ▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | RAW | 5 | 0 | 6 | 24 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 0% | 1.1 | 20.2% | 7.5% | 12.7% | 3.3% | 4.47 | 4.16 | +0.0 | |
| / 200 IP | — | RAW | 190 | 0 | 200 | 844 | 176 | 70 | 35 | 0% | 1.1 | 20.2% | 7.5% | 12.7% | 3.3% | 4.47 | 4.16 | +0.9 | |
| Career | — | MLE | 157 | 6 | 197 | 813 | 180 | 73 | 24 | 4% | 1.3 | 22.1% | 8.9% | 13.2% | 3.0% | 3.71 | 4.01 | +0.0 | |
| / 200 IP | — | MLE | 160 | 6 | 200 | 827 | 183 | 74 | 25 | 4% | 1.3 | 22.1% | 8.9% | 13.2% | 3.0% | 3.71 | 4.01 | +0.0 | |
How the minor-league lines were translated
One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.
2026 AAChesapeake Baysox · 20 IPFIP 3.92 → 4.84 (+0.92)K% 24.7% → 20.0%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /BF | 24.73% | — | ×0.810 | 20.03% |
| BB% (unintentional) /BF | 4.30% | — | ×1.100 | 4.73% |
| HR / BF /BF | 4.30% | ÷1.000 | ×1.200 | 5.16% |
Factors used: pitcher AA level factors — K ×0.81, BB ×1.10, HR ×1.20. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).
Result: FIP 3.92 → 4.84, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2026 A+Frederick Keys · 8 IPFIP 0.78 → 1.78 (+1.00)K% 41.9% → 32.3%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /BF | 41.94% | — | ×0.770 | 32.29% |
| BB% (unintentional) /BF | 9.68% | — | ×1.150 | 11.13% |
| HR / BF /BF | 0.00% | ÷1.000 | ×1.250 | 0.00% |
Factors used: pitcher A+ level factors — K ×0.77, BB ×1.15, HR ×1.25. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).
Result: FIP 0.78 → 1.78, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2026 ADelmarva Shorebirds · 5 IPFIP 2.30 → 3.04 (+0.74)K% 23.8% → 17.6%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /BF | 23.81% | — | ×0.740 | 17.62% |
| BB% (unintentional) /BF | 9.52% | — | ×1.180 | 11.24% |
| HR / BF /BF | 0.00% | ÷1.000 | ×1.300 | 0.00% |
Factors used: pitcher A level factors — K ×0.74, BB ×1.18, HR ×1.30. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).
Result: FIP 2.30 → 3.04, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2025 AAChesapeake Baysox · 31 IPFIP 1.98 → 2.47 (+0.49)K% 30.1% → 24.4%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /BF | 30.09% | — | ×0.810 | 24.37% |
| BB% (unintentional) /BF | 3.54% | — | ×1.100 | 3.89% |
| HR / BF /BF | 1.77% | ÷1.248 | ×1.200 | 1.70% |
Factors used: pitcher AA level factors — K ×0.81, BB ×1.10, HR ×1.20. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 150).
Result: FIP 1.98 → 2.47, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2025 AAANorfolk Tides · 22 IPFIP 4.48 → 4.84 (+0.36)K% 17.3% → 14.9%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /BF | 17.35% | — | ×0.860 | 14.92% |
| BB% (unintentional) /BF | 9.18% | — | ×0.900 | 8.27% |
| HR / BF /BF | 3.06% | ÷0.945 | ×1.100 | 3.56% |
Factors used: pitcher AAA level factors (Triple-A 2023+ robo-zone set: walks improve on promotion) — K ×0.86, BB ×0.90, HR ×1.10. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 89).
Result: FIP 4.48 → 4.84, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2024 AABowie Baysox · 47 IPFIP 3.49 → 4.02 (+0.53)K% 26.1% → 21.1%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /BF | 26.09% | — | ×0.810 | 21.13% |
| BB% (unintentional) /BF | 12.08% | — | ×1.100 | 13.29% |
| HR / BF /BF | 1.93% | ÷1.249 | ×1.200 | 1.86% |
Factors used: pitcher AA level factors — K ×0.81, BB ×1.10, HR ×1.20. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 150).
Result: FIP 3.49 → 4.02, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2023 AABowie Baysox · 24 IPFIP 2.60 → 3.26 (+0.66)K% 33.7% → 27.3%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /BF | 33.66% | — | ×0.810 | 27.27% |
| BB% (unintentional) /BF | 9.90% | — | ×1.100 | 10.89% |
| HR / BF /BF | 1.98% | ÷1.208 | ×1.200 | 1.97% |
Factors used: pitcher AA level factors — K ×0.81, BB ×1.10, HR ×1.20. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 142).
Result: FIP 2.60 → 3.26, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2023 A+Aberdeen IronBirds · 17 IPFIP 0.91 → 2.35 (+1.44)K% 48.2% → 37.1%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /BF | 48.21% | — | ×0.770 | 37.12% |
| BB% (unintentional) /BF | 7.14% | — | ×1.150 | 8.21% |
| HR / BF /BF | 1.79% | ÷0.912 | ×1.250 | 2.45% |
Factors used: pitcher A+ level factors — K ×0.77, BB ×1.15, HR ×1.25. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 82).
Result: FIP 0.91 → 2.35, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).