Jace Beck

P Knoxville Smokies

Age 27 RHP 6'9" / 200 lbs AA

Overview

AAPROSPECT

ETA2029MLB%2%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2023	23	A+NYM	26	1	31	3.73	3.48	38.5%	19.6%	—	K 29.7% · BB 22.5% · FIP 4.77
2025	25	A+NYM	42	0	45	5.80	2.94	34.0%	15.0%	—	K 26.2% · BB 17.2% · FIP 4.03
2026	26	MIX2 levels	31	15	99	4.36	3.45	33.2%	10.0%	—	K 27.4% · BB 10.4% · FIP 4.23
2027PROJ	27	MLBMIA	1	0	1	4.83	4.83	26.3%	13.5%	-0.0
2028PROJ38% MLB	28	MLBMIA	20	0	21	4.83	4.86	25.9%	13.2%	-0.1
2029PROJ56% MLB	29	MLBMIA	26	0	27	4.89	4.95	25.5%	13.1%	-0.1

Next 3 projected WAR -0.2Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Career WAR0.0 WAR median (P10 -0.3 / P90 2.0, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 91%

CompsPeyton Gray (age 26) · Jacob Bosiokovic (age 27) · Cristofer Ogando (age 27)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 125117vR 109

ERA4.83

FIP4.83

K%26.3%

BB%13.5%

K-BB%12.9%

Proj IP70

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 70 IP

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2019	19	ROK MLE	GCL Mets	6	0	8	34	10	1	0	0%	1.3	29.4%	2.9%	26.5%	0.0%	3.38	0.99	—
2019	19	ROK RAW	GCL Mets	6	0	8	34	10	1	0	0%	1.3	29.4%	2.9%	26.5%	0.0%	3.38	0.98	—
2021	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	11	6	23	107	32	21	1	55%	2.1	21.1%	23.8%	-2.7%	1.5%	7.54	5.13	—
2021	21	MIX RAW	2 levels	11	6	23	107	32	21	1	55%	2.1	29.9%	19.6%	10.3%	0.9%	7.54	3.63	—
2022	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	18	0	20	90	23	17	2	0%	1.1	19.2%	23.6%	-4.4%	3.2%	2.21	6.24	—
2022	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	18	0	20	90	23	17	2	0%	1.1	25.6%	18.9%	6.7%	2.2%	2.21	4.62	—
2023	23	A+ MLE	Brooklyn Cyclones	26	1	31	148	57	29	3	4%	1.2	29.7%	22.5%	7.1%	2.4%	3.73	4.77	—
2023	23	A+ RAW	Brooklyn Cyclones	26	1	31	148	57	29	3	4%	1.2	38.5%	19.6%	18.9%	2.0%	3.73	3.48	—
2025	25	A+ MLE	Brooklyn Cyclones	42	0	45	200	68	30	3	0%	1.1	26.2%	17.2%	8.9%	1.7%	5.80	4.03	—
2025	25	A+ MLE	Brooklyn Cyclones	42	0	45	200	68	30	3	0%	1.1	26.2%	17.2%	8.9%	1.7%	5.80	4.03	—
2025	25	A+ RAW	Brooklyn Cyclones	42	0	45	200	68	30	3	0%	1.1	34.0%	15.0%	19.0%	1.5%	5.80	2.94	—
2026	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	31	15	99	440	146	44	15	48%	3.2	27.4%	10.4%	17.0%	3.9%	4.36	4.23	—
2026	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	31	15	99	440	146	44	15	48%	3.2	27.4%	10.4%	17.0%	3.9%	4.36	4.23	—
2026	26	MIX RAW	2 levels	31	15	99	440	146	44	15	48%	3.2	33.2%	10.0%	23.2%	3.4%	4.36	3.45	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	27	MLB	MIA	1	0	1	4	1	1	0	0%	1.0	26.3%	13.5%	12.9%	3.4%	4.83	4.83	-0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	28	MLB MLE	MIA	54	0	57	239	62	32	8	0%	1.1	25.9%	13.2%	12.7%	3.5%	4.83	4.86	-0.2
2029	29	MLB MLE	MIA	47	0	49	207	53	27	7	0%	1.0	25.5%	13.1%	12.4%	3.6%	4.89	4.95	-0.2
2028	28	MLB CTX	MIA	20	0	21	89	23	12	3	0%	1.1	25.9%	13.2%	12.7%	3.5%	4.83	4.86	-0.1
2029	29	MLB CTX	MIA	26	0	27	114	29	15	4	0%	1.0	25.5%	13.1%	12.4%	3.6%	4.89	4.95	-0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		46	0	49	205	53	27	7	0%	1.1	25.7%	13.1%	12.5%	3.5%	4.86	4.53	+0.0
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	218	111	29	0%	1.1	25.7%	13.1%	12.5%	3.5%	4.86	4.53	+0.0
Career	—	MLE		134	22	226	1019	267	161	29	16%	1.7	26.2%	15.8%	10.3%	2.8%	4.65	4.44	-0.4
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		118	19	200	900	235	142	25	16%	1.7	26.2%	15.8%	10.3%	2.8%	4.65	4.44	-0.8

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 AAKnoxville Smokies · 60 IPFIP 2.52 → 3.54 (+1.03)K% 39.2% → 31.8%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	39.23%	—	×0.810	31.78%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	11.54%	—	×1.100	12.69%
HR / BF /BF	2.31%	÷1.000	×1.200	2.77%

Factors used: pitcher AA level factors — K ×0.81, BB ×1.10, HR ×1.20. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 2.52 → 3.54, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2026 AAAJacksonville Jumbo Shrimp · 39 IPFIP 4.77 → 5.23 (+0.46)K% 24.4% → 21.0%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	24.44%	—	×0.860	21.02%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	7.78%	—	×0.900	7.00%
HR / BF /BF	5.00%	÷1.000	×1.100	5.50%

Factors used: pitcher AAA level factors (Triple-A 2023+ robo-zone set: walks improve on promotion) — K ×0.86, BB ×0.90, HR ×1.10. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 4.77 → 5.23, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 A+Brooklyn Cyclones · 45 IPFIP 2.95 → 4.03 (+1.08)K% 34.0% → 26.2%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	34.00%	—	×0.770	26.18%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	15.00%	—	×1.150	17.25%
HR / BF /BF	1.50%	÷1.073	×1.250	1.75%

Factors used: pitcher A+ level factors — K ×0.77, BB ×1.15, HR ×1.25. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 115).

Result: FIP 2.95 → 4.03, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 A+Brooklyn Cyclones · 31 IPFIP 3.44 → 4.77 (+1.33)K% 38.5% → 29.7%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	38.51%	—	×0.770	29.66%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	19.59%	—	×1.150	22.53%
HR / BF /BF	2.03%	÷1.054	×1.250	2.40%

Result: FIP 3.44 → 4.77, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 ASt. Lucie Mets · 19 IPFIP 4.74 → 6.24 (+1.50)K% 25.9% → 19.2%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	25.88%	—	×0.740	19.15%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	20.00%	—	×1.180	23.60%
HR / BF /BF	2.35%	÷0.949	×1.300	3.22%

Factors used: pitcher A level factors — K ×0.74, BB ×1.18, HR ×1.30. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 90).

Result: FIP 4.74 → 6.24, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2021 ROKFCL Mets · 22 IPFIP 3.44 → 5.13 (+1.69)K% 31.0% → 21.1%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	31.00%	—	×0.680	21.08%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	19.00%	—	×1.250	23.75%
HR / BF /BF	1.00%	÷0.958	×1.400	1.46%

Factors used: pitcher ROK level factors — K ×0.68, BB ×1.25, HR ×1.40. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 92).

Result: FIP 3.44 → 5.13, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2019 ROKGCL Mets · 8 IPFIP 0.99 → 1.88 (+0.89)K% 29.4% → 20.0%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	29.41%	—	×0.680	20.00%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	2.94%	—	×1.250	3.68%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷1.000	×1.400	0.00%

Result: FIP 0.99 → 1.88, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Jace Beck (OGILVIE)	—	—	—	—	—	3.4%	—	4.90	25.7%	12.6%	106	+0.07	—	—	—
Peyton Gray R 2021 · 4.27 FIP	26	SU	4.27	29.2%	14.1%	3.4%	.307	—	—	—	—	—	3.62	160	81
Jacob Bosiokovic R 2021 · 3.93 FIP	27	SU	3.93	26.4%	14.3%	2.3%	.274	4.80	21.7%	10.2%	69	+0.87	3.84	181	79
Cristofer Ogando R 2021 · 4.83 FIP	27	SU	4.83	26.8%	10.9%	4.8%	.281	4.90	20.6%	9.0%	53	+0.07	3.23	179	78
Dennis Sarfate R 2008 · 4.42 FIP	27	SU	4.42	24.0%	16.7%	2.2%	.263	4.81	19.8%	5.9%	23	+0.39	4.42	103	78
Cody Tucker R 2024 · 4.97 FIP	25	SU	4.97	22.0%	12.0%	4.0%	.272	5.36	15.8%	-1.9%	40	+0.39	4.97	105	78
Beck Wheeler R 2016 · 4.42 FIP	27	SU	4.42	24.9%	14.5%	2.9%	.360	5.40	15.3%	3.1%	58	+0.98	3.46	173	78
Fernando Rodriguez Jr. R 2011 · 3.85 FIP	27	SU	3.85	24.7%	10.8%	2.7%	.315	3.90	25.2%	16.5%	70	+0.05	3.34	335	77
Ryan Garton R 2017 · 3.67 FIP	27	SU	3.67	25.2%	11.3%	2.3%	.252	4.15	23.5%	10.8%	108	+0.48	3.14	307	77
Nolan Clenney R 2023 · 4.76 FIP	27	SU	4.76	23.0%	10.1%	4.2%	.341	4.58	17.2%	7.5%	71	-0.18	3.73	223	76
Jake Stinnett R 2019 · 4.23 FIP	27	SW	4.23	21.1%	12.2%	2.5%	.301	—	—	—	—	—	2.88	356	76
Emmanuel Chapman R 2024 · 4.08 FIP	25	SW	4.08	19.7%	10.6%	2.4%	.256	4.52	17.8%	1.3%	117	+0.44	3.81	198	76
Grant Black R 2021 · 4.46 FIP	27	SW	4.46	19.0%	13.9%	2.2%	.327	5.35	15.0%	3.8%	156	+0.89	4.46	215	75
Taylor Grover R 2017 · 4.93 FIP	26	SW	4.93	20.0%	10.9%	3.9%	.320	4.89	16.2%	8.9%	14	-0.04	3.68	239	75
Nick Ernst R 2022 · 5.05 FIP	25	SU	5.05	21.9%	14.6%	3.5%	.275	—	—	—	—	—	3.56	117	75
Grant Sides R 2016 · 3.83 FIP	27	SU	3.83	22.4%	11.9%	2.0%	.247	3.31	21.7%	11.9%	47	-0.52	3.31	159	75
Tayler Scott R 2019 · 4.29 FIP	27	SU	4.29	24.1%	10.8%	3.4%	.352	3.47	24.8%	16.1%	56	-0.82	3.17	528	74
Austin Ross R 2016 · 3.81 FIP	27	SU	3.81	22.9%	8.0%	3.0%	.295	3.67	12.4%	5.2%	127	-0.14	3.16	269	74
Derek Gordon R 2016 · 4.62 FIP	25	SW	4.62	19.9%	9.3%	3.7%	.315	—	—	—	—	—	4.62	146	74
Sean Isaac R 2018 · 4.20 FIP	25	SW	4.20	24.2%	16.3%	2.0%	.292	—	—	—	—	—	3.27	155	74
Noah Denoyer R 2023 · 5.24 FIP	25	SW	5.24	22.2%	14.0%	4.1%	.306	—	—	—	—	—	3.26	181	74

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,234 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 480 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.9	59	25.9%	13.3%	1.34	4.85
Armando Almanza ('05)	1.1	54	24.4%	14.3%	1.43	4.82
Amir Garrett ('24)	1.7	55	26.7%	13.3%	1.52	4.95
John Hudek ('99)	1.0	40	23.0%	13.7%	1.30	4.43
Ed Glynn ('75-'85, -0 WAR*)	1.3	53	23.5%*	12.9%*	1.22*	4.69*
Mac Scarce ('72-'78, 1 WAR*)	1.0	52	25.9%*	12.4%*	1.27*	4.17*
Fred Lasher ('63-'71, -1 WAR*)	1.0	50	21.5%*	11.9%*	1.05*	4.68*