Jace Beck — OGILVIE

Jace Beck P Knoxville Smokies

Age 26 RHP 6'9" / 200 lbs AA

2026 ROS PROJECTION94 act + 5 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 127119vR 111

ERA4.95

FIP4.95

K%27.5%

BB%17.8%

K-BB%9.7%

ROS IP5

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 99 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF6060

CTRL2525

CMD5050

K†6565

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2019	19	ROK MLE	GCL Mets	6	0	8	34	10	1	0	0%	1.3	29.4%	2.9%	26.5%	0.0%	3.38	0.99	—
2019	19	ROK RAW	GCL Mets	6	0	8	34	10	1	0	0%	1.3	29.4%	2.9%	26.5%	0.0%	3.38	0.98	—
2021	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	11	6	23	107	32	21	1	55%	2.1	21.1%	23.8%	-2.7%	1.5%	7.54	5.13	—
2021	21	MIX RAW	2 levels	11	6	23	107	32	21	1	55%	2.1	29.9%	19.6%	10.3%	0.9%	7.54	3.63	—
2022	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	18	0	20	90	23	17	2	0%	1.1	19.2%	23.6%	-4.4%	3.2%	2.21	6.24	—
2022	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	18	0	20	90	23	17	2	0%	1.1	25.6%	18.9%	6.7%	2.2%	2.21	4.62	—
2023	23	A+ MLE	Brooklyn Cyclones	26	1	31	148	57	29	3	4%	1.2	29.7%	22.5%	7.1%	2.4%	3.73	4.77	—
2023	23	A+ MLE	Brooklyn Cyclones	26	1	31	148	57	29	3	4%	1.2	29.7%	22.5%	7.1%	2.4%	3.73	4.77	—
2023	23	A+ RAW	Brooklyn Cyclones	26	1	31	148	57	29	3	4%	1.2	38.5%	19.6%	18.9%	2.0%	3.73	3.48	—
2025	25	A+ MLE	Brooklyn Cyclones	42	0	45	200	68	30	3	0%	1.1	26.2%	17.2%	8.9%	1.7%	5.80	4.03	—
2025	25	A+ MLE	Brooklyn Cyclones	42	0	45	200	68	30	3	0%	1.1	26.2%	17.2%	8.9%	1.7%	5.80	4.03	—
2025	25	A+ RAW	Brooklyn Cyclones	42	0	45	200	68	30	3	0%	1.1	34.0%	15.0%	19.0%	1.5%	5.80	2.94	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	26	AAA MLE	Jacksonville Jumbo Shrimp	30	14	94	417	141	43	13	47%	3.1	27.6%	10.7%	16.9%	3.6%	4.31	4.09	—
YTD	26	AAA MLE	Jacksonville Jumbo Shrimp	30	14	94	417	141	43	13	47%	3.1	27.6%	10.7%	16.9%	3.6%	4.31	4.09	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	26	AA RAW	MIA	20	6	60	260	102	30	6	30%	3.0	39.2%	11.5%	27.7%	2.3%	2.87	2.52	—
2026	26	AAA RAW	MIA	10	8	34	157	39	13	7	80%	3.4	24.8%	8.3%	16.6%	4.5%	6.82	4.50	—
ROS	26	MLB MLE	MIA	5	0	5	21	6	4	1	0%	1.0	27.5%	17.8%	9.7%	2.8%	4.95	4.95	-0.0
2026 TOT	26	MLB MLE	MIA	—	—	99	438	147	47	14	—	—	33.5%	10.7%	22.8%	3.1%	4.34	4.13	+0.9
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	27	MLB MLE	MIA	86	0	91	383	103	64	11	0%	1.1	26.9%	16.8%	10.1%	2.9%	4.90	4.92	-0.4
2028	28	MLB MLE	MIA	84	0	88	372	98	61	11	0%	1.0	26.4%	16.3%	10.1%	3.0%	4.91	4.95	-0.4
2029	29	MLB MLE	MIA	80	0	84	355	92	57	11	0%	1.1	26.0%	16.1%	9.9%	3.1%	4.98	5.05	-0.5
2030	30	MLB MLE	MIA	75	0	79	334	92	51	11	0%	1.1	27.5%	15.4%	12.1%	3.3%	4.94	4.94	-0.3
2027	27	MLB CTX	MIA	32	0	34	144	39	24	4	0%	1.1	26.9%	16.8%	10.1%	2.9%	4.90	4.92	-0.1
2028	28	MLB CTX	MIA	50	0	52	220	58	36	7	0%	1.0	26.4%	16.3%	10.1%	3.0%	4.91	4.95	-0.2
2029	29	MLB CTX	MIA	56	0	59	249	65	40	8	0%	1.1	26.0%	16.1%	9.9%	3.1%	4.98	5.05	-0.3
2030	30	MLB CTX	MIA	59	0	62	262	72	40	9	0%	1.1	27.5%	15.4%	12.1%	3.3%	4.94	4.94	-0.3
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		198	0	208	878	234	141	27	0%	1.0	26.7%	16.1%	10.6%	3.1%	4.94	4.59	-0.1
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	225	136	26	0%	1.1	26.7%	16.1%	10.6%	3.1%	4.94	4.59	-0.1
Career	—	MLE		133	21	221	996	261	160	26	16%	1.7	26.2%	16.1%	10.1%	2.7%	4.64	4.38	-1.7
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		120	19	200	900	236	145	24	16%	1.7	26.2%	16.1%	10.1%	2.7%	4.64	4.38	-1.0

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Jace Beck (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.95	27.5%	17.8%	2.8%	—	4.97	26.4%	10.0%	263	+0.02	—	—	—
Sean Isaac R 2018 · 4.20 FIP	25	SW	4.20	24.2%	16.3%	2.0%	.292	—	—	—	—	—	3.27	155	80
Sam Gardner R 2023 · 4.04 FIP	26	SU	4.04	23.8%	15.1%	1.9%	.298	3.07	26.7%	16.7%	73	-0.97	2.28	118	80
Fernando Baez R 2017 · 5.37 FIP	25	SU	5.37	24.3%	21.2%	3.0%	.271	—	—	—	—	—	3.45	129	79
Peyton Gray R 2021 · 4.27 FIP	26	SU	4.27	29.2%	14.1%	3.4%	.307	—	—	—	—	—	3.65	159	78
Jeff Ames R 2017 · 3.94 FIP	26	SU	3.94	25.1%	13.4%	2.3%	.310	4.65	25.4%	10.8%	79	+0.71	3.85	272	77
Stevie Branche R 2023 · 4.04 FIP	26	SU	4.04	25.6%	19.1%	1.2%	.274	5.73	18.6%	1.0%	28	+1.69	3.23	162	76
Gabriel Ponce R 2023 · 4.61 FIP	24	SU	4.61	23.9%	14.9%	3.0%	.291	—	—	—	—	—	4.45	161	76
Nick Ernst R 2022 · 5.05 FIP	25	SU	5.05	21.9%	14.6%	3.5%	.275	—	—	—	—	—	3.56	117	75
Brandon Johnson R 2023 · 4.94 FIP	24	SU	4.94	22.4%	14.2%	3.5%	.327	4.49	22.0%	11.9%	189	-0.45	3.35	250	75
Matt Seelinger R 2021 · 5.37 FIP	26	SU	5.37	28.8%	18.3%	4.3%	.312	4.58	24.8%	12.2%	116	-0.79	3.13	368	75
Kyle Wilcox R 2019 · 5.16 FIP	25	SU	5.16	25.1%	21.2%	2.7%	.310	5.57	25.1%	-1.5%	13	+0.41	2.78	310	75
Logan VanWey R 2023 · 4.34 FIP	24	SU	4.34	23.9%	14.0%	2.7%	.301	3.86	25.0%	14.1%	144	-0.48	3.15	191	75
Mitchell Stumpo R 2022 · 4.55 FIP	26	SU	4.55	24.0%	16.8%	2.4%	.225	5.67	21.5%	6.6%	78	+1.12	3.97	158	75
Eduard Santos R 2016 · 3.86 FIP	26	SU	3.86	22.2%	14.4%	1.5%	.248	2.04	31.1%	18.7%	16	-1.82	2.04	138	75
Michael Stryffeler R 2022 · 4.24 FIP	26	SU	4.24	30.4%	17.3%	2.8%	.277	4.89	19.4%	1.1%	33	+0.65	2.43	140	74
Ryan Jensen R 2023 · 4.64 FIP	25	SU	4.64	20.6%	17.0%	2.0%	.329	4.20	23.6%	6.8%	107	-0.44	4.00	311	74
Eric Orze R 2023 · 4.06 FIP	25	SU	4.06	24.7%	13.6%	2.4%	.319	3.64	23.5%	14.1%	193	-0.42	3.42	351	74
Harrison Cohen R 2023 · 4.56 FIP	24	SU	4.56	22.4%	13.4%	3.0%	.282	4.21	22.0%	8.7%	119	-0.35	2.12	165	74
Parker Bugg R 2021 · 5.29 FIP	26	SU	5.29	25.3%	16.0%	4.2%	.250	4.11	22.8%	10.8%	40	-1.18	3.20	277	74
Tanner Jacobson R 2023 · 4.09 FIP	23	SU	4.09	22.8%	13.8%	2.1%	.313	4.89	21.1%	5.4%	115	+0.80	4.09	168	73

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	2.0	80	26.8%	16.4%	1.17	4.93
Touki Toussaint ('24)	1.4	40	23.1%	14.1%	1.25	5.39
Amir Garrett ('23)	1.5	51	25.8%	13.4%	1.50	5.10
Michael Kopech ('24)	1.9	96	26.1%	12.5%	1.45	4.15
Daniel Bard ('23)	1.0	50	25.1%	13.5%	0.81	3.82
Tyler Chatwood ('21)	2.6	104	19.2%	13.3%	0.94	4.48
Lucas Sims ('24)	1.4	47	27.6%	11.6%	1.24	4.22