Jace Beck
P
Knoxville Smokies
Age 26
RHP
6'9" / 200 lbs
AA
2026 ROS PROJECTION65 act + 60 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 127118vR 109
ERA4.79
FIP4.79
K%27.5%
BB%16.5%
K-BB%10.9%
ROS IP60
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 124 IP
Grades · Contract
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2019 | 19 | ROK | GCL Mets | 6 | 0 | 8 | 34 | 10 | 1 | 0 | 0% | 1.3 | 29.4% | 2.9% | 26.5% | 0.0% | 3.38 | 0.99 | — |
| 2019 | 19 | ROK | GCL Mets | 6 | 0 | 8 | 34 | 10 | 1 | 0 | 0% | 1.3 | 29.4% | 2.9% | 26.5% | 0.0% | 3.38 | 0.98 | — |
| 2021 | 21 | MIX | 2 levels | 11 | 6 | 23 | 107 | 32 | 21 | 1 | 55% | 2.1 | 21.1% | 23.8% | -2.7% | 1.5% | 7.54 | 5.17 | — |
| 2021 | 21 | MIX | 2 levels | 11 | 6 | 23 | 107 | 32 | 21 | 1 | 55% | 2.1 | 29.9% | 19.6% | 10.3% | 0.9% | 7.54 | 3.63 | — |
| 2022 | 22 | MIX | 2 levels | 18 | 0 | 20 | 90 | 23 | 17 | 2 | 0% | 1.1 | 19.2% | 23.6% | -4.4% | 3.4% | 2.21 | 6.34 | — |
| 2022 | 22 | MIX | 2 levels | 18 | 0 | 20 | 90 | 23 | 17 | 2 | 0% | 1.1 | 25.6% | 18.9% | 6.7% | 2.2% | 2.21 | 4.62 | — |
| 2023 | 23 | A+ | Brooklyn Cyclones | 26 | 1 | 31 | 148 | 57 | 29 | 3 | 4% | 1.2 | 29.7% | 22.5% | 7.1% | 2.3% | 3.73 | 4.70 | — |
| 2023 | 23 | A+ | Brooklyn Cyclones | 26 | 1 | 31 | 148 | 57 | 29 | 3 | 4% | 1.2 | 38.5% | 19.6% | 18.9% | 2.0% | 3.73 | 3.48 | — |
| 2025 | 25 | A+ | Brooklyn Cyclones | 42 | 0 | 45 | 200 | 68 | 30 | 3 | 0% | 1.1 | 26.2% | 17.2% | 8.9% | 1.6% | 5.80 | 3.97 | — |
| 2025 | 25 | A+ | Brooklyn Cyclones | 42 | 0 | 45 | 200 | 68 | 30 | 3 | 0% | 1.1 | 34.0% | 15.0% | 19.0% | 1.5% | 5.80 | 2.94 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 26 | AAA | Iowa Cubs | 22 | 6 | 65 | 280 | 106 | 31 | 7 | 27% | 2.9 | 31.8% | 12.7% | 19.1% | 2.8% | 2.78 | 3.54 | +0.8 |
| ROS | 26 | MLB | CHC | 57 | 0 | 60 | 251 | 69 | 42 | 7 | 0% | 1.0 | 27.5% | 16.5% | 10.9% | 2.8% | 4.79 | 4.79 | -0.2 |
| ROS | 26 | MLB | CHC | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0% | 1.0 | 27.5% | 16.5% | 10.9% | 2.8% | 4.79 | 4.79 | -0.0 |
| 2026 TOT | 26 | MLB | CHC | — | — | 124 | 531 | 175 | 73 | 14 | — | — | 32.9% | 13.7% | 19.3% | 2.6% | 3.75 | 4.14 | +1.8 |
| 2026 FULL | 26 | MLB | CHC | — | — | 1 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 0 | — | — | 27.5% | 16.5% | 10.9% | 2.8% | 4.79 | 4.41 | +0.0 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 27 | MLB | CHC | 56 | 0 | 59 | 247 | 67 | 39 | 7 | 0% | 1.0 | 27.1% | 15.9% | 11.2% | 2.9% | 4.76 | 4.78 | -0.2 |
| 2028 | 28 | MLB | CHC | 54 | 0 | 57 | 240 | 64 | 37 | 7 | 0% | 1.1 | 26.7% | 15.5% | 11.1% | 3.0% | 4.78 | 4.83 | -0.2 |
| 2029 | 29 | MLB | CHC | 52 | 0 | 54 | 229 | 60 | 35 | 7 | 0% | 1.0 | 26.2% | 15.4% | 10.8% | 3.1% | 4.86 | 4.93 | -0.2 |
| 2027 | 27 | MLB | CHC | 21 | 0 | 22 | 93 | 25 | 15 | 3 | 0% | 1.0 | 27.1% | 15.9% | 11.2% | 2.9% | 4.76 | 4.78 | -0.1 |
| 2028 | 28 | MLB | CHC | 32 | 0 | 34 | 144 | 38 | 22 | 4 | 0% | 1.1 | 26.7% | 15.5% | 11.1% | 3.0% | 4.78 | 4.83 | -0.1 |
| 2029 | 29 | MLB | CHC | 36 | 0 | 38 | 160 | 42 | 25 | 5 | 0% | 1.1 | 26.2% | 15.4% | 10.8% | 3.1% | 4.86 | 4.93 | -0.2 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 91 | 0 | 95 | 403 | 107 | 63 | 12 | 0% | 1.0 | 26.6% | 15.6% | 11.0% | 3.0% | 4.81 | 4.48 | +0.9 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 190 | 0 | 200 | 844 | 224 | 132 | 25 | 0% | 1.1 | 26.6% | 15.6% | 11.0% | 3.0% | 4.81 | 4.48 | +2.2 | ||
| Career | — | 125 | 13 | 192 | 859 | 235 | 151 | 19 | 10% | 1.5 | 27.4% | 17.6% | 9.8% | 2.2% | 4.17 | 4.24 | +2.6 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 130 | 14 | 200 | 895 | 245 | 157 | 20 | 10% | 1.5 | 27.4% | 17.6% | 9.8% | 2.2% | 4.17 | 4.24 | +2.7 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Jace Beck (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.79 | 27.5% | 16.5% | 2.8% | — | 4.84 | 26.7% | 11.0% | 170 | +0.05 | — | — | — |
| Peyton Gray R 2026 · 4.31 FIP | 26 | SU | 4.31 | 29.2% | 14.1% | 3.5% | .307 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.87 | 138 | 84 |
| Jeff Ames R 2026 · 3.89 FIP | 26 | SU | 3.89 | 25.1% | 13.4% | 2.2% | .310 | 4.58 | 25.4% | 10.8% | 79 | +0.69 | 3.89 | 272 | 83 |
| Ryan Jensen R 2026 · 4.20 FIP | 26 | SU | 4.20 | 27.2% | 20.0% | 1.6% | .331 | 4.52 | 22.4% | 3.4% | 50 | +0.32 | 4.20 | 311 | 80 |
| Ryan Jennings R 2026 · 5.51 FIP | 26 | SU | 5.51 | 25.3% | 16.2% | 4.6% | .324 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.29 | 142 | 80 |
| Eduard Santos R 2026 · 4.03 FIP | 26 | SU | 4.03 | 22.2% | 14.4% | 1.8% | .248 | 2.04 | 31.1% | 18.7% | 16 | -1.99 | 2.04 | 138 | 79 |
| Nick Ernst R 2025 · 4.99 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.99 | 21.9% | 14.6% | 3.4% | .275 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.54 | 117 | 79 |
| Nelson L. Alvarez R 2026 · 4.09 FIP | 26 | SU | 4.09 | 23.4% | 14.2% | 2.1% | .282 | 4.63 | 18.5% | 9.4% | 35 | +0.54 | 2.53 | 233 | 79 |
| Stevie Branche R 2026 · 4.03 FIP | 26 | SU | 4.03 | 25.6% | 19.1% | 1.2% | .274 | 5.82 | 19.8% | -0.7% | 28 | +1.79 | 3.25 | 162 | 79 |
| Michael Stryffeler R 2026 · 4.35 FIP | 26 | SU | 4.35 | 30.4% | 17.3% | 3.0% | .277 | 4.75 | 19.4% | 1.1% | 33 | +0.40 | 2.43 | 140 | 79 |
| Jesus Pirela R 2026 · 3.91 FIP | 26 | SU | 3.91 | 23.7% | 11.6% | 2.5% | .305 | 3.92 | 17.1% | 13.9% | 45 | +0.01 | 3.21 | 161 | 79 |
| Mitchell Stumpo R 2026 · 4.60 FIP | 26 | SU | 4.60 | 24.0% | 16.8% | 2.5% | .225 | 5.38 | 21.5% | 6.0% | 78 | +0.78 | 3.88 | 158 | 79 |
| Gabriel Ponce R 2024 · 4.73 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.73 | 24.2% | 15.5% | 3.1% | .291 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.42 | 161 | 79 |
| Justin Evans R 2025 · 3.73 FIP | 25 | SU | 3.73 | 23.6% | 14.3% | 1.5% | .323 | 4.80 | 16.4% | -7.9% | 14 | +1.07 | 3.73 | 105 | 79 |
| Jonathan Brand R 2026 · 4.67 FIP | 26 | SU | 4.67 | 24.1% | 15.3% | 3.0% | .318 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.24 | 172 | 79 |
| Collin Baumgartner R 2026 · 3.62 FIP | 26 | SU | 3.62 | 23.9% | 12.3% | 1.8% | .291 | 6.27 | 19.1% | -8.3% | 16 | +2.65 | 3.05 | 134 | 78 |
| Fernando Baez R 2025 · 5.39 FIP | 25 | SU | 5.39 | 24.3% | 21.2% | 3.0% | .271 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.43 | 129 | 78 |
| Brandon Cunniff R 2026 · 4.16 FIP | 26 | SU | 4.16 | 24.5% | 13.2% | 2.6% | .256 | 4.34 | 20.3% | 9.0% | 115 | +0.18 | 3.78 | 180 | 78 |
| Ronald Peña R 2026 · 4.34 FIP | 26 | SU | 4.34 | 23.4% | 11.6% | 3.2% | .273 | 4.52 | 18.7% | 7.1% | 88 | +0.18 | 3.57 | 187 | 78 |
| Mason Vinyard R 2026 · 4.36 FIP | 26 | SU | 4.36 | 21.8% | 14.5% | 2.3% | .254 | 4.21 | 13.5% | -4.3% | 15 | -0.15 | 3.58 | 169 | 78 |
| Eric Orze R 2026 · 3.96 FIP | 26 | SU | 3.96 | 28.8% | 12.7% | 3.1% | .261 | 3.34 | 22.7% | 12.8% | 112 | -0.62 | 3.06 | 331 | 77 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 4 | 57 | 26.9% | 15.9% | 1.13 | 4.80 |
| Amir Garrett ('23) | 6 | 51 | 25.8% | 13.4% | 1.50 | 5.10 |
| Daniel Bard ('23) | 4 | 50 | 25.1% | 13.5% | 0.81 | 3.82 |
| Kyle Barraclough ('19) | 5 | 50 | 29.0% | 14.1% | 0.86 | 3.53 |
| Greg Holland ('21) | 6 | 45 | 25.4% | 12.3% | 0.87 | 4.03 |
| Touki Toussaint ('24) | 7 | 40 | 23.1% | 14.1% | 1.25 | 5.39 |
| Jake Diekman ('24) | 9 | 51 | 28.6% | 13.8% | 0.91 | 4.07 |