Jace Beck
P
Knoxville Smokies
+0.2
WAR
Age 26
RHP
6'9" / 200 lbs
AA
peak 0.2 · 2026
ERA4.49
FIP4.49
xFIP—
SIERA—
K%24.4%
BB%12.0%
K-BB%12.4%
IP37
trajectory · 10 yrs
0.2peak
2026
STUF6060
CTRL2525
CMD5050
K†6060
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2019 | 19 | ROK | GCL Mets | 6 | 0 | 8 | 34 | 10 | 1 | 0 | — | — | — | 3.38 | — | — |
| 2021 | 21 | A | St. Lucie Mets | 11 | 6 | 23 | 107 | 32 | 21 | 1 | 21.1% | 23.8% | 1.5% | 7.54 | 5.17 | -0.1 |
| 2022 | 22 | A | St. Lucie Mets | 18 | 0 | 20 | 90 | 23 | 17 | 2 | 19.2% | 23.6% | 3.2% | 2.21 | 6.23 | -0.3 |
| 2023 | 23 | A+ | Brooklyn Cyclones | 26 | 1 | 31 | 148 | 57 | 29 | 3 | 29.7% | 22.5% | 2.4% | 3.73 | 4.76 | +0.1 |
| 2025 | 25 | A+ | Brooklyn Cyclones | 42 | 0 | 45 | 200 | 68 | 30 | 3 | 26.2% | 17.2% | 1.8% | 5.80 | 4.05 | +0.5 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 26 | AA | Knoxville Smokies | 4 | 0 | 10 | 47 | 18 | 8 | 3 | — | — | — | 6.30 | — | — |
| ROS | 26 | MLB | CHC | 37 | — | 37 | 155 | 40 | 20 | 4 | 25.6% | 13.2% | 2.8% | 4.54 | 4.54 | +0.2 |
| 2026 Total | 26 | MLB | CHC | — | — | 47 | 202 | 58 | 28 | 7 | 28.5% | 14.1% | 3.6% | 4.92 | 3.57 | +0.7 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 27 | MLB | CHC | 36 | — | 36 | 153 | 39 | 20 | 4 | 25.4% | 12.9% | 2.8% | 4.53 | 4.53 | +0.2 |
| 2028 | 28 | MLB | CHC | 36 | — | 36 | 151 | 38 | 19 | 4 | 25.2% | 12.6% | 2.9% | 4.53 | 4.54 | +0.2 |
| 2029 | 29 | MLB | CHC | 35 | — | 35 | 148 | 37 | 19 | 4 | 25.0% | 12.5% | 2.9% | 4.55 | 4.57 | +0.2 |
| 2030 | 30 | MLB | CHC | 34 | — | 34 | 143 | 35 | 18 | 4 | 24.7% | 12.6% | 3.0% | 4.60 | 4.63 | +0.1 |
| 2031 | 31 | MLB | CHC | 33 | — | 33 | 138 | 34 | 18 | 4 | 24.5% | 12.7% | 3.1% | 4.66 | 4.70 | +0.1 |
| 2032 | 32 | MLB | CHC | 31 | — | 31 | 133 | 32 | 17 | 4 | 24.2% | 12.8% | 3.2% | 4.74 | 4.79 | +0.1 |
| 2033 | 33 | MLB | CHC | 30 | — | 30 | 127 | 30 | 16 | 4 | 23.9% | 13.0% | 3.2% | 4.83 | 4.89 | +0.0 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 107 | 7 | 137 | 626 | 164 | 124 | 15 | 26.2% | 19.7% | 2.3% | 4.98 | 4.67 | +1.0 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 156 | 10 | 200 | 912 | 239 | 181 | 22 | 26.2% | 19.7% | 2.3% | 4.98 | 4.67 | +1.4 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Jace Beck (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.54 | 25.6% | 13.2% | 2.8% | — | 4.55 | 25.2% | 12.5% | 107 | +0.01 | — | — | — |
| Brandon Cunniff R 2026 · 4.25 FIP | 26 | SU | 4.25 | 24.5% | 13.2% | 2.8% | .256 | 4.33 | 20.3% | 9.0% | 115 | +0.08 | 3.88 | 180 | 93 |
| Peyton Gray R 2026 · 4.26 FIP | 26 | SU | 4.26 | 29.2% | 14.1% | 3.4% | .307 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.26 | 104 | 89 |
| Michael Flynn R 2026 · 4.32 FIP | 26 | SU | 4.32 | 26.5% | 11.2% | 3.7% | .299 | 4.62 | 23.6% | 11.9% | 58 | +0.30 | 3.86 | 134 | 88 |
| Daniel Corcino R 2026 · 3.97 FIP | 26 | SU | 3.97 | 21.7% | 11.4% | 2.3% | .292 | 4.93 | 19.0% | 7.9% | 223 | +0.96 | 3.84 | 299 | 87 |
| Jason Stoffel R 2026 · 3.60 FIP | 26 | SU | 3.60 | 23.4% | 10.1% | 2.2% | .267 | 3.51 | 27.2% | 19.2% | 59 | -0.09 | 3.51 | 103 | 87 |
| Brooks Kriske R 2025 · 3.48 FIP | 25 | SU | 3.48 | 26.1% | 12.2% | 1.9% | .245 | 4.81 | 28.6% | 16.5% | 41 | +1.33 | 3.04 | 230 | 85 |
| Jesus Pirela R 2026 · 3.85 FIP | 26 | SW | 3.85 | 23.7% | 11.6% | 2.3% | .305 | 3.92 | 17.1% | 13.9% | 45 | +0.07 | 3.23 | 161 | 85 |
| Ronald Peña R 2026 · 4.22 FIP | 26 | SW | 4.22 | 23.4% | 11.6% | 3.0% | .273 | 4.53 | 18.7% | 7.1% | 88 | +0.31 | 3.70 | 187 | 84 |
| Collin Baumgartner R 2026 · 3.76 FIP | 26 | SW | 3.76 | 23.9% | 12.3% | 2.0% | .291 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.99 | 117 | 83 |
| Mitch Neunborn R 2026 · 3.70 FIP | 26 | SU | 3.70 | 24.5% | 9.5% | 2.7% | .232 | 5.13 | 18.0% | 7.0% | 180 | +1.43 | 3.70 | 223 | 83 |
| Jeff Ames R 2026 · 3.94 FIP | 26 | SW | 3.94 | 25.1% | 13.4% | 2.3% | .310 | 4.64 | 25.4% | 10.8% | 79 | +0.70 | 3.84 | 272 | 83 |
| Mason Vinyard R 2026 · 4.41 FIP | 26 | SU | 4.41 | 21.8% | 14.5% | 2.4% | .254 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.60 | 154 | 83 |
| Layne Henderson R 2026 · 4.01 FIP | 26 | SU | 4.01 | 24.9% | 12.7% | 2.6% | .277 | 4.54 | 24.2% | 8.7% | 82 | +0.53 | 3.91 | 233 | 83 |
| Maikel Cleto R 2026 · 3.89 FIP | 26 | SW | 3.89 | 25.8% | 12.1% | 2.6% | .214 | 3.12 | 25.0% | 15.3% | 55 | -0.77 | 2.59 | 156 | 83 |
| Logan Boyer R 2026 · 3.70 FIP | 26 | SU | 3.70 | 25.0% | 12.3% | 2.1% | .267 | 4.91 | 17.9% | 1.6% | 54 | +1.21 | 3.70 | 121 | 82 |
| Keagan Gillies R 2026 · 4.00 FIP | 26 | SU | 4.00 | 21.1% | 13.3% | 1.8% | .306 | 3.65 | 20.1% | 13.5% | 54 | -0.35 | 2.94 | 157 | 82 |
| Dustin Antolin R 2026 · 3.42 FIP | 26 | SW | 3.42 | 23.9% | 13.1% | 1.2% | .286 | 4.34 | 16.2% | 1.8% | 50 | +0.92 | 2.94 | 159 | 82 |
| Kyle Hill R 2026 · 3.93 FIP | 26 | SU | 3.93 | 23.6% | 12.2% | 2.3% | .319 | 5.38 | 23.3% | 10.2% | 35 | +1.45 | 3.62 | 156 | 82 |
| Mitchell Stumpo R 2026 · 4.55 FIP | 26 | SU | 4.55 | 24.0% | 16.8% | 2.5% | .225 | 5.69 | 21.5% | 6.0% | 78 | +1.14 | 3.90 | 158 | 81 |
| Nelson L. Alvarez R 2026 · 4.26 FIP | 26 | SW | 4.26 | 23.4% | 14.2% | 2.4% | .282 | 4.71 | 18.5% | 9.4% | 35 | +0.45 | 2.59 | 233 | 81 |
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.