Janser Lara

P Frisco RoughRiders

Age 30 RHP 6'0" / 170 lbs AA

Overview

AAPROSPECT

MLB%2%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2018	21	MIX2 levels	26	11	71	3.91	3.04	25.6%	9.8%	—	K 19.3% · BB 11.5% · FIP 4.11
2025	28	AATEX	11	0	19	3.32	2.15	29.5%	6.4%	—	K 23.9% · BB 7.1% · FIP 2.84
2026	29	MIX2 levels	46	0	58	4.53	4.00	34.5%	9.4%	—	K 27.0% · BB 10.3% · FIP 5.34
2027PROJ	30	MLBTEX	1	0	1	4.47	4.47	26.0%	9.7%	0.0
2028PROJ31% MLB	31	MLBTEX	7	0	7	4.58	4.66	25.3%	10.0%	-0.0

Next 2 projected WAR -0.0Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Career WAR0.0 WAR median (P10 0.0 / P90 0.1, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 97%

CompsJoe Nelson (age 31) · Neil Wagner (age 29) · Jim Miller (age 30)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 118110vR 102

ERA4.47

FIP4.47

K%26.0%

BB%9.7%

K-BB%16.3%

Proj IP27

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 27 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†6060

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2016	19	ROK MLE	DSL Royals	12	7	33	152	45	21	4	58%	2.8	20.1%	17.3%	2.9%	3.7%	4.09	5.61	—
2016	19	ROK RAW	DSL Royals	12	7	33	152	45	21	4	58%	2.8	29.6%	13.8%	15.8%	2.6%	4.09	3.86	—
2017	20	ROK MLE	Idaho Falls Chukars	12	10	52	239	57	29	8	83%	4.4	16.2%	15.2%	1.1%	4.7%	4.13	6.22	—
2017	20	ROK RAW	Idaho Falls Chukars	12	10	52	239	57	29	8	83%	4.4	23.8%	12.1%	11.7%	3.3%	4.13	4.57	—
2018	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	26	11	71	316	81	31	5	42%	2.7	19.3%	11.5%	7.8%	2.2%	3.91	4.11	—
2018	21	MIX RAW	2 levels	26	11	71	316	81	31	5	42%	2.7	25.6%	9.8%	15.8%	1.6%	3.91	3.04	—
2025	28	AA MLE	Frisco RoughRiders	11	0	19	78	23	5	1	0%	1.7	23.9%	7.1%	16.8%	1.6%	3.32	2.84	—
2025	28	AA MLE	Frisco RoughRiders	11	0	19	78	23	5	1	0%	1.7	23.9%	7.1%	16.8%	1.6%	3.32	2.84	—
2025	28	AA RAW	Frisco RoughRiders	11	0	19	78	23	5	1	0%	1.7	29.5%	6.4%	23.1%	1.3%	3.32	2.15	—
2026	29	MIX MLE	2 levels	46	0	58	255	88	24	12	0%	1.3	27.0%	10.3%	16.7%	5.9%	4.53	5.34	—
2026	29	MIX MLE	2 levels	46	0	58	255	88	24	12	0%	1.3	27.0%	10.3%	16.7%	5.9%	4.53	5.34	—
2026	29	MIX RAW	2 levels	46	0	58	255	88	24	12	0%	1.3	34.5%	9.4%	25.1%	4.7%	4.53	4.00	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	30	MLB	TEX	1	0	1	4	1	0	0	0%	1.0	26.0%	9.7%	16.3%	3.6%	4.47	4.47	+0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	31	MLB MLE	TEX	23	0	24	100	25	10	4	0%	1.0	25.3%	10.0%	15.3%	3.7%	4.58	4.66	-0.0
2028	31	MLB CTX	TEX	7	0	7	30	7	3	1	0%	1.0	25.3%	10.0%	15.3%	3.7%	4.58	4.66	-0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		7	0	7	31	8	3	1	0%	1.1	25.3%	10.0%	15.3%	3.7%	4.58	4.28	+0.0
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	215	81	27	0%	1.1	25.3%	10.0%	15.3%	3.7%	4.58	4.28	+0.6
Career	—	MLE		107	28	233	1040	218	131	40	26%	2.2	21.0%	12.6%	8.4%	3.8%	4.09	5.02	-0.0
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		92	24	200	891	187	112	34	26%	2.2	21.0%	12.6%	8.4%	3.8%	4.09	5.02	-0.3

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 AAFrisco RoughRiders · 50 IPFIP 4.15 → 5.34 (+1.19)K% 33.3% → 27.0%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	33.33%	—	×0.810	27.00%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	9.33%	—	×1.100	10.27%
HR / BF /BF	4.89%	÷1.000	×1.200	5.87%

Factors used: pitcher AA level factors — K ×0.81, BB ×1.10, HR ×1.20. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 4.15 → 5.34, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2026 AAARound Rock Express · 8 IPFIP 2.54 → 3.11 (+0.57)K% 43.3% → 37.3%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	43.33%	—	×0.860	37.27%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	10.00%	—	×0.900	9.00%
HR / BF /BF	3.33%	÷1.000	×1.100	3.67%

Factors used: pitcher AAA level factors (Triple-A 2023+ robo-zone set: walks improve on promotion) — K ×0.86, BB ×0.90, HR ×1.10. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 2.54 → 3.11, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 AAFrisco RoughRiders · 19 IPFIP 2.13 → 2.84 (+0.72)K% 29.5% → 23.9%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	29.49%	—	×0.810	23.88%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	6.41%	—	×1.100	7.05%
HR / BF /BF	1.28%	÷0.976	×1.200	1.58%

Result: FIP 2.13 → 2.84, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2018 ALexington Legends · 66 IPFIP 3.09 → 4.11 (+1.02)K% 26.1% → 19.3%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	26.13%	—	×0.740	19.34%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	9.76%	—	×1.180	11.51%
HR / BF /BF	1.74%	÷1.051	×1.300	2.15%

Factors used: pitcher A level factors — K ×0.74, BB ×1.18, HR ×1.30. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 110).

Result: FIP 3.09 → 4.11, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2018 ROKBurlington Royals · 5 IPFIP 2.66 → 3.55 (+0.89)K% 20.7% → 14.1%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	20.69%	—	×0.680	14.07%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	10.34%	—	×1.250	12.93%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷1.000	×1.400	0.00%

Factors used: pitcher ROK level factors — K ×0.68, BB ×1.25, HR ×1.40. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 2.66 → 3.55, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2017 ROKIdaho Falls Chukars · 52 IPFIP 4.46 → 6.22 (+1.76)K% 23.8% → 16.2%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	23.85%	—	×0.680	16.22%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	12.13%	—	×1.250	15.17%
HR / BF /BF	3.35%	÷1.000	×1.400	4.69%

Result: FIP 4.46 → 6.22, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2016 ROKDSL Royals · 33 IPFIP 3.79 → 5.61 (+1.82)K% 29.6% → 20.1%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	29.61%	—	×0.680	20.13%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	13.82%	—	×1.250	17.27%
HR / BF /BF	2.63%	÷1.000	×1.400	3.68%

Result: FIP 3.79 → 5.61, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Janser Lara (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.47	26.0%	9.7%	3.6%	—	4.66	25.3%	15.3%	24	+0.19	—	—	—
Joe Nelson R 2006 · 3.91 FIP	31	SU	3.91	22.8%	10.4%	2.6%	.258	4.05	23.4%	12.8%	94	+0.14	3.08	139	76
Neil Wagner R 2013 · 4.02 FIP	29	SU	4.02	20.5%	7.5%	3.1%	.306	4.05	19.8%	7.5%	43	+0.03	3.11	135	74
Jim Miller R 2012 · 4.56 FIP	30	SU	4.56	20.9%	11.8%	3.1%	.243	3.95	18.8%	14.7%	74	-0.61	3.95	140	73
Kazuhiro Sasaki R 2000 · 3.93 FIP	32	SU	3.93	29.4%	9.8%	3.8%	.212	2.88	24.9%	19.3%	161	-1.05	2.76	223	72
Hirokazu Sawamura R 2021 · 4.48 FIP	33	SU	4.48	26.2%	11.2%	4.0%	.263	4.02	18.1%	6.8%	51	-0.46	4.02	104	72
Erik Davis R 2017 · 4.25 FIP	30	SU	4.25	22.2%	11.1%	3.0%	.349	3.52	17.4%	8.5%	65	-0.73	3.05	227	71
Andrew Robinson R 2017 · 4.32 FIP	29	SU	4.32	23.4%	8.8%	3.8%	.245	—	—	—	—	—	3.19	160	71
Dustin Molleken R 2015 · 3.74 FIP	30	SU	3.74	20.4%	11.7%	1.6%	.287	3.90	20.6%	8.4%	77	+0.16	3.38	129	70
Fernando Rodriguez Jr. R 2015 · 3.34 FIP	31	SU	3.34	26.5%	9.6%	2.3%	.241	3.89	23.3%	13.2%	105	+0.55	3.34	335	70
Blake Smith R 2016 · 3.59 FIP	28	SU	3.59	22.4%	8.6%	2.4%	.307	—	—	—	—	—	3.17	124	70
Kiko Calero R 2005 · 3.51 FIP	30	SU	3.51	22.7%	7.0%	2.6%	.252	3.23	23.3%	13.9%	99	-0.28	2.27	298	69
Scott Atchison R 2007 · 4.55 FIP	31	SU	4.55	19.1%	7.6%	3.8%	.297	4.59	16.2%	9.5%	60	+0.04	2.52	340	69
Adrian Ramirez R 2019 · 4.29 FIP	31	SU	4.29	21.7%	6.3%	4.0%	.327	—	—	—	—	—	3.04	137	69
Kaleb Fleck R 2018 · 3.47 FIP	29	SU	3.47	24.6%	5.9%	3.1%	.346	—	—	—	—	—	2.68	177	69
Chris Smith R 2018 · 3.72 FIP	29	SU	3.72	24.1%	9.3%	2.7%	.319	—	—	—	—	—	2.17	199	69
Simon Castro R 2017 · 3.99 FIP	29	SU	3.99	28.3%	10.3%	3.6%	.256	—	—	—	—	—	3.01	185	68
Leonel Campos R 2017 · 3.70 FIP	30	SU	3.70	25.7%	11.8%	2.3%	.241	—	—	—	—	—	2.62	168	68
Ryan Tepera R 2018 · 3.90 FIP	30	SU	3.90	25.9%	8.7%	3.4%	.282	3.20	28.4%	19.9%	104	-0.70	2.35	445	68
Wirfin Obispo R 2015 · 4.80 FIP	30	SU	4.80	18.6%	12.2%	3.1%	.292	1.31	28.6%	24.5%	126	-3.49	1.30	218	68
Manny Acosta R 2011 · 3.75 FIP	30	SU	3.75	22.5%	7.4%	2.9%	.321	4.49	21.3%	10.2%	47	+0.74	3.08	350	68

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,234 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 480 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.3	25	25.7%	9.8%	1.41	4.52
Colin Poche ('25)	1.1	54	26.7%	10.2%	1.32	4.01
Chris Hatcher ('18)	1.3	53	22.9%	8.4%	1.32	4.65
Noé Ramirez ('22)	1.5	59	24.8%	9.4%	1.42	4.21
Mac Scarce ('72-'78, 1 WAR*)	1.0	52	25.9%*	12.4%*	1.27*	4.17*
Buddy Schultz ('75-'79, 2 WAR*)	1.2	60	27.4%*	8.5%*	1.21*	4.14*
Tom Dukes ('67-'72, -2 WAR*)	1.1	43	22.7%*	8.7%*	1.16*	5.37*