Janser Lara
P
Frisco RoughRiders
Age 29
RHP
6'0" / 170 lbs
AA
2026 ROS PROJECTION38 act + 11 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 114105vR 96
ERA4.18
FIP4.18
K%23.5%
BB%8.8%
K-BB%14.7%
ROS IP11
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 49 IP
Grades · Contract
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016 | 19 | ROK | DSL Royals | 12 | 7 | 33 | 152 | 45 | 21 | 4 | 58% | 2.8 | 20.1% | 17.3% | 2.9% | 3.7% | 4.09 | 5.61 | — |
| 2016 | 19 | ROK | DSL Royals | 12 | 7 | 33 | 152 | 45 | 21 | 4 | 58% | 2.8 | 29.6% | 13.8% | 15.8% | 2.6% | 4.09 | 3.86 | — |
| 2017 | 20 | ROK | Idaho Falls Chukars | 12 | 10 | 52 | 239 | 57 | 29 | 8 | 83% | 4.4 | 16.2% | 15.2% | 1.1% | 4.7% | 4.13 | 6.22 | — |
| 2017 | 20 | ROK | Idaho Falls Chukars | 12 | 10 | 52 | 239 | 57 | 29 | 8 | 83% | 4.4 | 23.8% | 12.1% | 11.7% | 3.3% | 4.13 | 4.57 | — |
| 2018 | 21 | MIX | 2 levels | 26 | 11 | 71 | 316 | 81 | 31 | 5 | 42% | 2.7 | 19.3% | 11.5% | 7.8% | 2.1% | 3.91 | 4.05 | — |
| 2018 | 21 | MIX | 2 levels | 26 | 11 | 71 | 316 | 81 | 31 | 5 | 42% | 2.7 | 25.6% | 9.8% | 15.8% | 1.6% | 3.91 | 3.04 | — |
| 2025 | 28 | AA | Frisco RoughRiders | 11 | 0 | 19 | 78 | 23 | 5 | 1 | 0% | 1.7 | 23.9% | 7.1% | 16.8% | 1.6% | 3.32 | 2.86 | — |
| 2025 | 28 | AA | Frisco RoughRiders | 11 | 0 | 19 | 78 | 23 | 5 | 1 | 0% | 1.7 | 29.5% | 6.4% | 23.1% | 1.3% | 3.32 | 2.15 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 29 | AA | Frisco RoughRiders | 28 | 0 | 38 | 173 | 55 | 16 | 10 | 0% | 1.3 | 25.8% | 10.2% | 15.6% | 6.9% | 5.73 | 6.02 | -0.6 |
| ROS | 29 | MLB | TEX | 11 | 0 | 11 | 47 | 11 | 4 | 1 | 0% | 1.0 | 23.5% | 8.8% | 14.7% | 2.9% | 4.18 | 4.18 | +0.0 |
| ROS | 29 | MLB | TEX | — | — | 0 | — | — | — | — | — | — | 23.5% | 8.8% | 14.7% | 2.9% | 4.18 | 4.18 | — |
| 2026 TOT | 29 | MLB | TEX | — | — | 49 | 220 | 66 | 20 | 11 | — | — | 30.0% | 9.1% | 20.9% | 5.2% | 5.38 | 5.60 | -0.6 |
| 2026 FULL | 29 | MLB | TEX | — | — | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | 23.5% | 8.8% | 14.7% | 2.9% | 4.18 | 3.80 | +0.0 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 30 | MLB | TEX | 19 | 0 | 20 | 84 | 20 | 8 | 3 | 0% | 1.1 | 23.1% | 9.1% | 14.0% | 3.1% | 4.30 | 4.38 | +0.0 |
| 2027 | 30 | MLB | TEX | 6 | 0 | 6 | 25 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 0% | 1.0 | 23.1% | 9.1% | 14.0% | 3.1% | 4.30 | 4.38 | +0.0 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 6 | 0 | 6 | 27 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 0% | 1.1 | 23.1% | 9.1% | 14.0% | 3.1% | 4.30 | 3.99 | +0.0 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 190 | 0 | 200 | 844 | 185 | 62 | 31 | 0% | 1.1 | 23.1% | 9.1% | 14.0% | 3.1% | 4.30 | 3.99 | +3.3 | ||
| Career | — | 89 | 28 | 213 | 958 | 194 | 122 | 37 | 31% | 2.4 | 20.2% | 12.7% | 7.5% | 3.8% | 4.26 | 5.10 | +0.7 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 83 | 26 | 200 | 898 | 182 | 114 | 34 | 31% | 2.4 | 20.2% | 12.7% | 7.5% | 3.8% | 4.26 | 5.10 | +0.7 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Janser Lara (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.18 | 23.5% | 8.8% | 2.9% | — | 4.38 | 23.1% | 14.0% | 20 | +0.20 | — | — | — |
| Diego Moreno R 2026 · 3.76 FIP | 29 | SU | 3.76 | 21.0% | 8.2% | 2.5% | .347 | 2.99 | 17.8% | 11.9% | 54 | -0.77 | 2.22 | 187 | 80 |
| Tyler Sturdevant R 2026 · 4.07 FIP | 29 | SU | 4.07 | 21.3% | 8.5% | 3.1% | .241 | 4.06 | 18.5% | 11.9% | 118 | -0.01 | 3.28 | 149 | 76 |
| Coleman Huntley III R 2026 · 4.19 FIP | 29 | SU | 4.19 | 24.4% | 10.9% | 3.2% | .311 | 2.38 | 20.9% | 12.6% | 25 | -1.81 | 2.38 | 160 | 75 |
| Michael Mariot R 2026 · 4.42 FIP | 29 | SU | 4.42 | 21.8% | 7.5% | 4.0% | .328 | 4.58 | 17.7% | 9.5% | 136 | +0.16 | 2.32 | 676 | 74 |
| Cory Gearrin R 2026 · 3.55 FIP | 29 | SU | 3.55 | 22.1% | 7.5% | 2.5% | .283 | 3.52 | 22.2% | 13.6% | 174 | -0.03 | 3.15 | 272 | 74 |
| David Hernandez R 2027 · 4.32 FIP | 30 | SU | 4.32 | 22.9% | 7.6% | 4.0% | .287 | 3.20 | 24.9% | 18.4% | 192 | -1.12 | 2.56 | 268 | 74 |
| Mark Serrano R 2027 · 3.03 FIP | 30 | SU | 3.03 | 17.7% | 6.5% | 1.1% | .290 | 4.44 | 21.1% | 14.0% | 88 | +1.41 | 3.03 | 120 | 74 |
| Erik Davis R 2026 · 3.07 FIP | 29 | SU | 3.07 | 24.4% | 9.5% | 1.5% | .329 | 3.81 | 19.8% | 9.8% | 129 | +0.74 | 3.07 | 227 | 73 |
| Ryan Brasier R 2025 · 4.03 FIP | 28 | SU | 4.03 | 25.0% | 7.7% | 3.8% | .289 | 3.03 | 24.2% | 17.9% | 130 | -1.00 | 2.27 | 426 | 73 |
| Gerardo Sanchez R 2025 · 3.49 FIP | 28 | SU | 3.49 | 21.6% | 8.4% | 2.1% | .355 | 3.55 | 20.5% | 15.1% | 56 | +0.06 | 2.51 | 137 | 73 |
| Ross Ohlendorf R 2029 · 3.26 FIP | 32 | SU | 3.26 | 23.7% | 7.2% | 2.3% | .342 | 4.99 | 23.4% | 12.7% | 66 | +1.73 | 3.26 | 122 | 73 |
| Cody Hall R 2026 · 4.45 FIP | 29 | SU | 4.45 | 26.8% | 10.0% | 4.3% | .299 | 3.95 | 25.9% | 8.4% | 19 | -0.50 | 3.53 | 134 | 73 |
| Alex Powers R 2026 · 4.01 FIP | 29 | SU | 4.01 | 25.0% | 10.3% | 3.1% | .312 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.80 | 264 | 73 |
| Jhan Mariñez R 2026 · 4.16 FIP | 29 | SU | 4.16 | 21.2% | 7.9% | 3.4% | .331 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.23 | 253 | 72 |
| Dustin Molleken R 2027 · 3.61 FIP | 30 | SU | 3.61 | 20.4% | 11.7% | 1.4% | .287 | 4.00 | 20.6% | 8.4% | 77 | +0.39 | 3.35 | 129 | 72 |
| Marc Magliaro R 2025 · 3.72 FIP | 28 | SU | 3.72 | 19.6% | 7.3% | 2.5% | .307 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.62 | 125 | 71 |
| Jonathan Broxton R 2028 · 3.57 FIP | 31 | SU | 3.57 | 24.5% | 8.2% | 2.7% | .325 | 3.78 | 21.7% | 13.5% | 76 | +0.21 | 3.57 | 137 | 71 |
| Esmil Rogers R 2026 · 3.51 FIP | 29 | SW | 3.51 | 18.5% | 8.9% | 1.6% | .348 | 2.88 | 21.7% | 17.9% | 40 | -0.63 | 2.88 | 199 | 71 |
| Tim Dillard R 2029 · 3.70 FIP | 32 | SW | 3.70 | 15.9% | 7.7% | 1.8% | .330 | 3.83 | 16.7% | 8.1% | 144 | +0.13 | 3.15 | 352 | 71 |
| Nick Merkel R 2025 · 3.85 FIP | 28 | SU | 3.85 | 17.9% | 6.9% | 2.5% | .333 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.08 | 201 | 71 |