Janser Lara — OGILVIE

Janser Lara P Frisco RoughRiders

Age 29 RHP 6'0" / 170 lbs AA peak 0.1 · 2026

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 11 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 110102vR 94

ERA4.05

FIP4.05

K%23.7%

BB%7.9%

K-BB%15.8%

ROS IP11

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 11 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†5555

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2016	19	ROK MLE	DSL Royals	12	7	33	152	45	21	4	58%	2.8	20.1%	17.3%	2.9%	3.7%	4.09	5.61	—
2016	19	ROK RAW	DSL Royals	12	7	33	152	45	21	4	58%	2.8	29.6%	13.8%	15.8%	2.6%	4.09	3.86	—
2017	20	ROK MLE	Idaho Falls Chukars	12	10	52	239	57	29	8	83%	4.4	16.2%	15.2%	1.1%	4.7%	4.13	6.22	—
2017	20	ROK RAW	Idaho Falls Chukars	12	10	52	239	57	29	8	83%	4.4	23.8%	12.1%	11.7%	3.3%	4.13	4.57	—
2018	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	26	11	71	316	81	31	5	42%	2.7	19.3%	11.5%	7.8%	2.2%	3.91	4.11	—
2018	21	MIX RAW	2 levels	26	11	71	316	81	31	5	42%	2.7	25.6%	9.8%	15.8%	1.6%	3.91	3.04	—
2025	28	AA MLE	Frisco RoughRiders	11	0	19	78	23	5	1	0%	1.7	23.9%	7.1%	16.8%	1.6%	3.32	2.84	—
2025	28	AA MLE	Frisco RoughRiders	11	0	19	78	23	5	1	0%	1.7	23.9%	7.1%	16.8%	1.6%	3.32	2.84	—
2025	28	AA RAW	Frisco RoughRiders	11	0	19	78	23	5	1	0%	1.7	29.5%	6.4%	23.1%	1.3%	3.32	2.15	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	29	AAA MLE	Round Rock Express	43	0	55	245	82	24	12	0%	1.3	27.0%	10.3%	16.7%	5.9%	4.77	5.34	—
YTD	29	AAA MLE	Round Rock Express	43	0	55	245	82	24	12	0%	1.3	27.0%	10.3%	16.7%	5.9%	4.77	5.34	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	29	AA RAW	TEX	40	0	50	225	75	21	11	0%	1.2	33.3%	9.3%	24.0%	4.9%	5.04	4.15	—
2026	29	AAA RAW	TEX	3	0	5	20	7	3	1	0%	1.6	35.0%	15.0%	20.0%	5.0%	1.93	4.79	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	30	MLB MLE	TEX	19	0	20	84	20	7	3	0%	1.1	23.3%	8.3%	15.0%	3.1%	4.19	4.26	+0.1
2027	30	MLB CTX	TEX	6	0	6	25	6	2	1	0%	1.0	23.3%	8.3%	15.0%	3.1%	4.19	4.26	+0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		6	0	6	26	6	2	1	0%	1.0	23.3%	8.3%	15.0%	3.1%	4.19	3.88	+0.0
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	192	64	32	0%	1.1	23.3%	8.3%	15.0%	3.1%	4.19	3.88	+1.6
Career	—	MLE		104	28	230	1030	215	130	39	27%	2.2	20.9%	12.6%	8.3%	3.8%	4.14	5.02	+0.1
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		90	24	200	894	187	112	34	27%	2.2	20.9%	12.6%	8.3%	3.8%	4.14	5.02	+0.7

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Janser Lara (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.05	23.7%	7.9%	2.9%	—	4.26	23.3%	15.0%	20	+0.21	—	—	—
Diego Moreno R 2016 · 3.75 FIP	29	SU	3.75	21.0%	8.2%	2.5%	.347	3.13	17.8%	11.9%	54	-0.62	2.29	187	81
Kaleb Bowman R 2023 · 3.88 FIP	26	SU	3.88	22.0%	7.5%	3.1%	.333	4.55	17.5%	6.5%	168	+0.67	3.88	202	78
Ryan Brasier R 2016 · 3.68 FIP	28	SU	3.68	25.0%	7.7%	3.1%	.289	3.09	24.2%	17.9%	130	-0.59	2.31	426	78
Tyler Sturdevant R 2015 · 4.37 FIP	29	SU	4.37	21.3%	8.5%	3.6%	.241	3.97	18.5%	11.9%	118	-0.40	3.44	149	78
David Hernandez R 2015 · 4.40 FIP	30	SU	4.40	22.9%	7.6%	4.1%	.287	3.17	24.9%	18.4%	192	-1.23	2.60	268	77
Cody Hall R 2017 · 4.03 FIP	29	SU	4.03	26.8%	10.0%	3.5%	.299	3.92	25.9%	8.4%	19	-0.11	3.51	134	77
Cory Gearrin R 2015 · 3.52 FIP	29	SU	3.52	22.1%	7.5%	2.5%	.283	3.54	22.2%	13.6%	174	+0.02	3.15	272	77
Ross Ohlendorf R 2015 · 3.30 FIP	32	SU	3.30	23.7%	7.2%	2.3%	.342	4.93	23.4%	12.7%	66	+1.63	3.30	122	77
Mark Serrano R 2016 · 3.16 FIP	30	SU	3.16	17.7%	6.5%	1.3%	.290	4.36	21.1%	14.0%	88	+1.20	3.16	120	76
Gerardo Sanchez R 2017 · 3.47 FIP	28	SU	3.47	21.6%	8.4%	2.1%	.355	3.58	20.5%	15.1%	56	+0.11	2.65	137	76
Erik Davis R 2016 · 3.05 FIP	29	SU	3.05	24.4%	9.5%	1.5%	.329	3.88	19.8%	9.8%	129	+0.83	3.05	227	76
Coleman Huntley III R 2022 · 4.05 FIP	29	SU	4.05	24.4%	10.9%	3.0%	.311	2.38	20.9%	12.6%	25	-1.67	2.38	160	75
Jaye Chapman R 2016 · 3.25 FIP	29	SU	3.25	24.6%	6.4%	2.6%	.274	5.51	13.0%	-0.4%	31	+2.26	3.25	150	75
Jonathan Broxton R 2015 · 3.67 FIP	31	SU	3.67	24.5%	8.2%	2.9%	.325	3.89	21.7%	13.5%	76	+0.22	3.67	137	75
Michael Mariot R 2018 · 4.62 FIP	29	SU	4.62	21.8%	7.5%	4.4%	.328	4.65	17.7%	9.5%	136	+0.03	2.40	676	74
Kaleb Fleck R 2018 · 3.47 FIP	29	SU	3.47	24.6%	5.9%	3.1%	.346	—	—	—	—	—	2.68	177	74
Marc Magliaro R 2018 · 3.94 FIP	28	SU	3.94	19.6%	7.3%	2.9%	.307	—	—	—	—	—	3.94	125	74
Chris Hatcher R 2015 · 2.92 FIP	30	SU	2.92	27.1%	6.6%	2.3%	.292	4.67	22.6%	14.0%	137	+1.75	2.92	176	74
Andrew Robinson R 2017 · 4.32 FIP	29	SU	4.32	23.4%	8.8%	3.8%	.245	—	—	—	—	—	3.19	160	73
Matt Albers R 2015 · 3.19 FIP	32	SU	3.19	18.8%	4.7%	2.0%	.252	4.45	20.4%	13.3%	147	+1.26	3.15	244	73