Yoniel Curet
P
Toledo Mud Hens
Age 23
RHP
6'2" / 250 lbs
AAA
Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2031
peak 0.9 · 2028
2026 ROS PROJECTION18 act + 62 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 130121vR 112
ERA4.93
FIP4.93
K%22.9%
BB%16.8%
K-BB%6.1%
ROS IP62
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 79 IP
━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control
Grades · Contract
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | 18 | ROK | DSL Rays 2 | 14 | 8 | 51 | 221 | 63 | 27 | 0 | 57% | 3.6 | 19.4% | 15.3% | 4.1% | 0.0% | 3.71 | 3.40 | — |
| 2021 | 18 | ROK | DSL Rays 2 | 14 | 8 | 51 | 221 | 63 | 27 | 0 | 57% | 3.6 | 28.5% | 12.2% | 16.3% | 0.0% | 3.71 | 2.22 | — |
| 2022 | 19 | MIX | 2 levels | 15 | 10 | 42 | 183 | 58 | 28 | 3 | 67% | 2.8 | 21.8% | 17.5% | 4.3% | 3.5% | 2.14 | 5.39 | — |
| 2022 | 19 | MIX | 2 levels | 15 | 10 | 42 | 183 | 58 | 28 | 3 | 67% | 2.8 | 31.7% | 15.3% | 16.4% | 1.6% | 2.14 | 3.27 | — |
| 2023 | 20 | MIX | 2 levels | 26 | 22 | 104 | 432 | 144 | 73 | 2 | 85% | 4.0 | 24.9% | 19.8% | 5.1% | 0.5% | 2.94 | 3.79 | — |
| 2023 | 20 | MIX | 2 levels | 26 | 22 | 104 | 432 | 144 | 73 | 2 | 85% | 4.0 | 33.3% | 16.9% | 16.4% | 0.5% | 2.94 | 2.69 | — |
| 2024 | 21 | MIX | 2 levels | 26 | 26 | 119 | 505 | 159 | 60 | 9 | 100% | 4.6 | 24.5% | 13.6% | 11.0% | 2.2% | 2.95 | 3.96 | — |
| 2024 | 21 | MIX | 2 levels | 26 | 26 | 119 | 505 | 159 | 60 | 9 | 100% | 4.6 | 31.5% | 11.9% | 19.6% | 1.8% | 2.95 | 2.92 | — |
| 2025 | 22 | MIX | 3 levels | 16 | 14 | 55 | 243 | 62 | 31 | 2 | 88% | 3.5 | 20.8% | 14.8% | 6.0% | 0.6% | 3.90 | 3.52 | — |
| 2025 | 22 | MIX | 3 levels | 16 | 14 | 55 | 243 | 62 | 31 | 2 | 88% | 3.5 | 25.5% | 12.8% | 12.8% | 0.8% | 3.90 | 3.01 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 23 | AAA | Toledo Mud Hens | 16 | 0 | 18 | 93 | 21 | 19 | 2 | 0% | 1.1 | — | — | — | — | 6.11 | — | — |
| ROS | 23 | MLB | DET | 59 | 0 | 62 | 260 | 60 | 44 | 6 | 0% | 1.0 | 22.9% | 16.8% | 6.1% | 2.3% | 4.93 | 4.93 | -0.2 |
| ROS | 23 | MLB | DET | 6 | 0 | 6 | 25 | 6 | 4 | 1 | 0% | 1.0 | 22.9% | 16.8% | 6.1% | 2.2% | 4.88 | 4.88 | -0.0 |
| 2026 TOT | 23 | MLB | DET | — | — | 79 | 353 | 81 | 63 | 8 | — | — | 22.8% | 17.8% | 5.1% | 2.3% | 5.19 | 3.83 | +1.0 |
| 2026 FULL | 23 | MLB | DET | — | — | 6 | 26 | 6 | 4 | 1 | — | — | 22.9% | 16.8% | 6.1% | 2.2% | 4.88 | 4.50 | +0.0 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 24 | MLB | DET | 11 | 11 | 63 | 266 | 63 | 40 | 6 | 100% | 5.7 | 23.5% | 15.0% | 8.5% | 2.3% | 4.75 | 4.68 | -0.0 |
| 2028 | 25 | MLB | DET | 11 | 11 | 64 | 270 | 64 | 38 | 6 | 100% | 5.8 | 23.9% | 13.9% | 10.0% | 2.4% | 4.60 | 4.52 | +0.1 |
| 2029 | 26 | MLB | DET | 11 | 11 | 64 | 270 | 65 | 37 | 6 | 100% | 5.8 | 24.1% | 13.6% | 10.4% | 2.4% | 4.53 | 4.49 | +0.1 |
| 2030 | 27 | MLB | DET | 10 | 10 | 63 | 266 | 64 | 36 | 7 | 100% | 6.3 | 24.0% | 13.6% | 10.5% | 2.5% | 4.52 | 4.52 | +0.1 |
| 2031 | 28 | MLB | DET | 10 | 10 | 61 | 258 | 62 | 35 | 7 | 100% | 6.1 | 23.9% | 13.7% | 10.2% | 2.6% | 4.57 | 4.61 | -0.0 |
| 2032 | 29 | MLB | DET | 10 | 10 | 58 | 246 | 58 | 34 | 7 | 100% | 5.8 | 23.7% | 14.0% | 9.7% | 2.7% | 4.67 | 4.74 | -0.1 |
| 2033 | 30 | MLB | DET | 9 | 9 | 55 | 231 | 54 | 33 | 7 | 100% | 6.1 | 23.3% | 14.3% | 9.1% | 2.9% | 4.82 | 4.92 | -0.2 |
| 2027 | 24 | MLB | DET | 5 | 5 | 30 | 127 | 30 | 19 | 3 | 100% | 6.0 | 23.5% | 15.0% | 8.5% | 2.2% | 4.70 | 4.63 | -0.0 |
| 2028 | 25 | MLB | DET | 8 | 8 | 44 | 186 | 44 | 26 | 4 | 100% | 5.5 | 23.9% | 13.9% | 10.0% | 2.3% | 4.54 | 4.46 | +0.0 |
| 2029 | 26 | MLB | DET | 9 | 9 | 52 | 220 | 53 | 30 | 5 | 100% | 5.8 | 24.1% | 13.6% | 10.4% | 2.3% | 4.47 | 4.43 | +0.1 |
| 2030 | 27 | MLB | DET | 9 | 9 | 54 | 228 | 55 | 31 | 5 | 100% | 6.0 | 24.0% | 13.6% | 10.5% | 2.4% | 4.46 | 4.46 | +0.1 |
| 2031 | 28 | MLB | DET | 9 | 9 | 55 | 232 | 56 | 32 | 6 | 100% | 6.1 | 23.9% | 13.7% | 10.2% | 2.5% | 4.51 | 4.55 | -0.0 |
| 2032 | 29 | MLB | DET | 9 | 9 | 53 | 224 | 53 | 31 | 6 | 100% | 5.9 | 23.7% | 14.0% | 9.7% | 2.6% | 4.61 | 4.68 | -0.1 |
| 2033 | 30 | MLB | DET | 8 | 8 | 51 | 215 | 50 | 31 | 6 | 100% | 6.4 | 23.3% | 14.3% | 9.1% | 2.8% | 4.75 | 4.85 | -0.2 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 63 | 57 | 345 | 1458 | 347 | 204 | 36 | 90% | 5.5 | 23.8% | 14.0% | 9.8% | 2.4% | 4.57 | 4.20 | +4.8 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 36 | 33 | 200 | 844 | 201 | 118 | 21 | 91% | 5.5 | 23.8% | 14.0% | 9.8% | 2.4% | 4.57 | 4.20 | +2.8 | ||
| Career | — | 113 | 80 | 389 | 1677 | 386 | 275 | 23 | 71% | 3.4 | 23.0% | 16.4% | 6.6% | 1.4% | 3.24 | 3.99 | +6.4 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 58 | 41 | 200 | 862 | 198 | 141 | 12 | 71% | 3.4 | 23.0% | 16.4% | 6.6% | 1.4% | 3.24 | 3.99 | +3.3 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Yoniel Curet (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.93 | 22.9% | 16.8% | 2.3% | — | 4.56 | 23.8% | 9.6% | 191 | -0.37 | — | — | — |
| Ryan Cardona R 2026 · 3.82 FIP | 23 | SP- | 3.82 | 22.8% | 16.5% | 1.0% | .262 | 4.35 | 16.8% | 3.5% | 211 | +0.53 | 3.46 | 367 | 84 |
| Dean Deetz R 2026 · 4.34 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.34 | 22.2% | 13.7% | 2.5% | .298 | 4.84 | 29.1% | 10.7% | 68 | +0.50 | 2.64 | 281 | 82 |
| Zach Linginfelter R 2027 · 5.72 FIP | 24 | SP- | 5.72 | 19.1% | 16.0% | 4.0% | .295 | 4.94 | 18.8% | -0.6% | 46 | -0.78 | 3.58 | 109 | 82 |
| Wills Montgomerie R 2026 · 5.03 FIP | 23 | SP- | 5.03 | 19.3% | 19.1% | 2.1% | .275 | 4.55 | 20.1% | 6.0% | 105 | -0.48 | 4.55 | 153 | 82 |
| Ray Gaither R 2027 · 4.91 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.91 | 21.9% | 13.2% | 3.6% | .314 | 4.49 | 18.6% | 4.7% | 123 | -0.42 | 4.16 | 164 | 82 |
| Gabriel Encinas R 2026 · 4.45 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.45 | 20.9% | 17.0% | 1.8% | .291 | 5.52 | 17.3% | -10.3% | 47 | +1.07 | 2.92 | 145 | 81 |
| Ramsey David R 2027 · 5.23 FIP | 24 | SP- | 5.23 | 18.6% | 17.4% | 2.7% | .219 | 7.27 | 19.1% | -0.7% | 30 | +2.04 | 5.23 | 107 | 80 |
| Nick Gallagher R 2026 · 4.78 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.78 | 22.0% | 17.9% | 2.3% | .274 | 4.87 | 21.0% | 7.0% | 73 | +0.09 | 4.09 | 196 | 80 |
| James McArthur R 2025 · 5.37 FIP | 22 | SP- | 5.37 | 18.8% | 15.5% | 3.5% | .304 | 4.20 | 20.0% | 10.7% | 131 | -1.17 | 3.53 | 352 | 80 |
| Aaron Hernandez R 2025 · 4.92 FIP | 22 | SP- | 4.92 | 18.6% | 15.7% | 2.5% | .340 | 4.59 | 20.2% | 6.4% | 111 | -0.33 | 4.45 | 194 | 80 |
| Nolan DeVos R 2025 · 4.07 FIP | 22 | SP- | 4.07 | 21.1% | 14.0% | 1.8% | .302 | 6.16 | 17.9% | 6.0% | 73 | +2.09 | 4.07 | 172 | 80 |
| Cade Winquest R 2026 · 4.36 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.36 | 17.9% | 12.0% | 2.3% | .299 | 3.91 | 20.0% | 9.6% | 158 | -0.45 | 3.34 | 236 | 79 |
| Brandon Decker R 2026 · 3.90 FIP | 23 | SP- | 3.90 | 18.3% | 12.6% | 1.4% | .296 | 4.11 | 21.5% | 10.8% | 33 | +0.21 | 3.90 | 117 | 79 |
| Alex Vallecillo R 2024 · 4.68 FIP | 21 | SP- | 4.68 | 18.6% | 16.3% | 2.0% | .277 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.47 | 152 | 78 |
| Alex Santos II R 2026 · 4.95 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.95 | 23.9% | 19.6% | 2.5% | .277 | 3.51 | 25.7% | 8.6% | 37 | -1.44 | 3.51 | 296 | 78 |
| R.J. Freure R 2025 · 5.19 FIP | 22 | SP- | 5.19 | 21.7% | 18.5% | 2.9% | .286 | 5.88 | 21.4% | 4.2% | 107 | +0.69 | 5.19 | 196 | 78 |
| James Proctor R 2026 · 4.02 FIP | 23 | SP | 4.02 | 22.0% | 15.2% | 1.6% | .277 | 4.35 | 14.0% | 1.5% | 48 | +0.33 | 4.02 | 109 | 78 |
| Jimmy Endersby R 2026 · 4.20 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.20 | 20.9% | 14.1% | 2.0% | .310 | 6.03 | 16.4% | 3.7% | 225 | +1.83 | 2.73 | 357 | 78 |
| Noah Skirrow R 2026 · 4.34 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.34 | 18.4% | 11.5% | 2.4% | .306 | 4.68 | 16.2% | 5.7% | 316 | +0.34 | 3.90 | 371 | 78 |
| Ike Buxton R 2026 · 4.93 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.93 | 16.8% | 15.2% | 2.4% | .241 | 4.68 | 14.8% | -0.6% | 123 | -0.25 | 4.52 | 196 | 78 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 8 | 61 | 23.7% | 14.4% | 0.97 | 4.67 |
| Jake Diekman ('24) | 9 | 51 | 28.6% | 13.8% | 0.91 | 4.07 |
| Greg Holland ('21) | 6 | 45 | 25.4% | 12.3% | 0.87 | 4.03 |
| Miguel Castro ('23) | 7 | 59 | 20.8% | 12.0% | 1.04 | 3.99 |
| Fernando Rodney ('19) | 5 | 59 | 24.6% | 11.8% | 0.88 | 4.21 |
| Daniel Bard ('23) | 4 | 50 | 25.1% | 13.5% | 0.81 | 3.82 |
| Amir Garrett ('23) | 6 | 51 | 25.8% | 13.4% | 1.50 | 5.10 |