Yoniel Curet P Toledo Mud Hens
Age 23 RHP 6'2" / 250 lbs AAA Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2031 peak 0.9 · 2028
2026 ROS PROJECTION18 act + 62 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 130121vR 112
ERA4.93
FIP4.93
K%22.9%
BB%16.8%
K-BB%6.1%
ROS IP62
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 79 IP
K: +0.4 runs (Runs saved by strikeouts vs lg-avg K%)+0KBB: -23.4 runs (Runs saved by walk suppression vs lg-avg BB%)-23BBCONTACT: +26.1 runs (Runs saved on contact quality (HR suppression) vs lg)+26CONTACTSTAM: +6.8 runs (Replacement credit for innings volume)+7STAMTotal WAR: +1.04 (79 IP)+1.0WAR
0.00.51.00.00.20.30.30.20.2+$1M ctrl surplus26272829303132333435
projected WAR paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit post-control
Grades · Contract
Scouting Grades
OFP45
STUF4045
CTRL40
CMD2030
K†5560
Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)
Status   Pre-Arb
MLB Debut   2026
Service   0 yrs (est)
Team Control Through   2031
First FA Year   2032
YearStatusSalary Proj WAR Value Surplus
2026ROSPre-Arb$0.3M+0.0$0.2M+$0.0M (cut)
2027Pre-Arb$0.8M+0.2$0.7M+$0.0M
2028Pre-Arb$0.8M+0.3$1M+$0.4M
2029Arb-1$1M+0.3$1.0M+$0.0M (cut)
2030Arb-2$2M+0.2$0.6M+$0.0M (cut)
2031Arb-3$3M+0.2$0.5M+$0.0M (cut)
Totals $2M $4M +$0.4M

Career Stats + Projections

Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

YearAge LvlTeam GGSIPBF KBBHR GS%IP/G K%BB%K-BB%HR% ERAFIP WAR
202118ROKDSL Rays 2148512216327057%3.619.4%15.3%4.1%0.0%3.713.40
202118ROKDSL Rays 2148512216327057%3.628.5%12.2%16.3%0.0%3.712.22
202219MIX2 levels1510421835828367%2.821.8%17.5%4.3%3.5%2.145.39
202219MIX2 levels1510421835828367%2.831.7%15.3%16.4%1.6%2.143.27
202320MIX2 levels262210443214473285%4.024.9%19.8%5.1%0.5%2.943.79
202320MIX2 levels262210443214473285%4.033.3%16.9%16.4%0.5%2.942.69
202421MIX2 levels2626119505159609100%4.624.5%13.6%11.0%2.2%2.953.96
202421MIX2 levels2626119505159609100%4.631.5%11.9%19.6%1.8%2.952.92
202522MIX3 levels1614552436231288%3.520.8%14.8%6.0%0.6%3.903.52
202522MIX3 levels1614552436231288%3.525.5%12.8%12.8%0.8%3.903.01
▸ 2026 Season
202623AAAToledo Mud Hens1601893211920%1.16.11
ROS23MLBDET59062260604460%1.022.9%16.8%6.1%2.3%4.934.93-0.2
ROS23MLBDET606256410%1.022.9%16.8%6.1%2.2%4.884.88-0.0
2026 TOT23MLBDET793538163822.8%17.8%5.1%2.3%5.193.83+1.0
2026 FULL23MLBDET62664122.9%16.8%6.1%2.2%4.884.50+0.0
▸ 2027+ Projections   WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ
202724MLBDET11116326663406100%5.723.5%15.0%8.5%2.3%4.754.68-0.0
202825MLBDET11116427064386100%5.823.9%13.9%10.0%2.4%4.604.52+0.1
202926MLBDET11116427065376100%5.824.1%13.6%10.4%2.4%4.534.49+0.1
203027MLBDET10106326664367100%6.324.0%13.6%10.5%2.5%4.524.52+0.1
203128MLBDET10106125862357100%6.123.9%13.7%10.2%2.6%4.574.61-0.0
203229MLBDET10105824658347100%5.823.7%14.0%9.7%2.7%4.674.74-0.1
203330MLBDET995523154337100%6.123.3%14.3%9.1%2.9%4.824.92-0.2
202724MLBDET553012730193100%6.023.5%15.0%8.5%2.2%4.704.63-0.0
202825MLBDET884418644264100%5.523.9%13.9%10.0%2.3%4.544.46+0.0
202926MLBDET995222053305100%5.824.1%13.6%10.4%2.3%4.474.43+0.1
203027MLBDET995422855315100%6.024.0%13.6%10.5%2.4%4.464.46+0.1
203128MLBDET995523256326100%6.123.9%13.7%10.2%2.5%4.514.55-0.0
203229MLBDET995322453316100%5.923.7%14.0%9.7%2.6%4.614.68-0.1
203330MLBDET885121550316100%6.423.3%14.3%9.1%2.8%4.754.85-0.2
▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections)
Career635734514583472043690%5.523.8%14.0%9.8%2.4%4.574.20+4.8
/ 200 IP36332008442011182191%5.523.8%14.0%9.8%2.4%4.574.20+2.8
Career1138038916773862752371%3.423.0%16.4%6.6%1.4%3.243.99+6.4
/ 200 IP58412008621981411271%3.423.0%16.4%6.6%1.4%3.243.99+3.3

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

Profile at Match Age Next 3 Yrs Career
CompAgeRole FIPK%BB%HR/BFBABIP FIPK%K-BB%IP ΔFIPLow FIPIPMatch
Yoniel Curet (OGILVIE) 4.93 22.9%16.8%2.3% 4.56 23.8%9.6%191 -0.37
Ryan Cardona R 2026 · 3.82 FIP 23 SP- 3.82 22.8%16.5%1.0%.262 4.35 16.8%3.5%211 +0.53 3.46 367 84
Dean Deetz R 2026 · 4.34 FIP 23 SP- 4.34 22.2%13.7%2.5%.298 4.84 29.1%10.7%68 +0.50 2.64 281 82
Zach Linginfelter R 2027 · 5.72 FIP 24 SP- 5.72 19.1%16.0%4.0%.295 4.94 18.8%-0.6%46 -0.78 3.58 109 82
Wills Montgomerie R 2026 · 5.03 FIP 23 SP- 5.03 19.3%19.1%2.1%.275 4.55 20.1%6.0%105 -0.48 4.55 153 82
Ray Gaither R 2027 · 4.91 FIP 24 SP- 4.91 21.9%13.2%3.6%.314 4.49 18.6%4.7%123 -0.42 4.16 164 82
Gabriel Encinas R 2026 · 4.45 FIP 23 SP- 4.45 20.9%17.0%1.8%.291 5.52 17.3%-10.3%47 +1.07 2.92 145 81
Ramsey David R 2027 · 5.23 FIP 24 SP- 5.23 18.6%17.4%2.7%.219 7.27 19.1%-0.7%30 +2.04 5.23 107 80
Nick Gallagher R 2026 · 4.78 FIP 23 SP- 4.78 22.0%17.9%2.3%.274 4.87 21.0%7.0%73 +0.09 4.09 196 80
James McArthur R 2025 · 5.37 FIP 22 SP- 5.37 18.8%15.5%3.5%.304 4.20 20.0%10.7%131 -1.17 3.53 352 80
Aaron Hernandez R 2025 · 4.92 FIP 22 SP- 4.92 18.6%15.7%2.5%.340 4.59 20.2%6.4%111 -0.33 4.45 194 80
Nolan DeVos R 2025 · 4.07 FIP 22 SP- 4.07 21.1%14.0%1.8%.302 6.16 17.9%6.0%73 +2.09 4.07 172 80
Cade Winquest R 2026 · 4.36 FIP 23 SP- 4.36 17.9%12.0%2.3%.299 3.91 20.0%9.6%158 -0.45 3.34 236 79
Brandon Decker R 2026 · 3.90 FIP 23 SP- 3.90 18.3%12.6%1.4%.296 4.11 21.5%10.8%33 +0.21 3.90 117 79
Alex Vallecillo R 2024 · 4.68 FIP 21 SP- 4.68 18.6%16.3%2.0%.277 4.47 152 78
Alex Santos II R 2026 · 4.95 FIP 23 SP- 4.95 23.9%19.6%2.5%.277 3.51 25.7%8.6%37 -1.44 3.51 296 78
R.J. Freure R 2025 · 5.19 FIP 22 SP- 5.19 21.7%18.5%2.9%.286 5.88 21.4%4.2%107 +0.69 5.19 196 78
James Proctor R 2026 · 4.02 FIP 23 SP 4.02 22.0%15.2%1.6%.277 4.35 14.0%1.5%48 +0.33 4.02 109 78
Jimmy Endersby R 2026 · 4.20 FIP 23 SP- 4.20 20.9%14.1%2.0%.310 6.03 16.4%3.7%225 +1.83 2.73 357 78
Noah Skirrow R 2026 · 4.34 FIP 23 SP- 4.34 18.4%11.5%2.4%.306 4.68 16.2%5.7%316 +0.34 3.90 371 78
Ike Buxton R 2026 · 4.93 FIP 23 SP- 4.93 16.8%15.2%2.4%.241 4.68 14.8%-0.6%123 -0.25 4.52 196 78

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

PlayerYrsIP/yrK%BB%HR/9ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION86123.7%14.4%0.974.67
Jake Diekman ('24)95128.6%13.8%0.914.07
Greg Holland ('21)64525.4%12.3%0.874.03
Miguel Castro ('23)75920.8%12.0%1.043.99
Fernando Rodney ('19)55924.6%11.8%0.884.21
Daniel Bard ('23)45025.1%13.5%0.813.82
Amir Garrett ('23)65125.8%13.4%1.505.10