Yoniel Curet — OGILVIE

Yoniel Curet P Erie SeaWolves

Age 23 RHP 6'2" / 250 lbs AA Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2031 peak 1.6 · 2029

2026 ROS PROJECTION34 act + 6 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 126118vR 110

ERA4.90

FIP4.90

K%22.4%

BB%16.0%

K-BB%6.4%

ROS IP6

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 40 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control-$12M ctrl surplus

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

OFP—45

STUF4045

CTRL—40

CMD2030

K†5555

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status Pre-Arb

MLB Debut 2026

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2031

First FA Year 2032

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026ROS	Pre-Arb	$0.1M	—	—	—
2027	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	—	—	—
2028	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	—	—	—
2029	Arb-1	$2M	+0.1	$0.3M	+$0.0M (cut)
2030	Arb-2	$4M	—	—	—
2031	Arb-3	$5M	—	—	—
Totals		$0.0M		$-0.3M	+$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2021	18	ROK MLE	DSL Rays 2	14	8	51	221	63	27	0	57%	3.6	19.4%	15.3%	4.1%	0.0%	3.71	3.40	—
2021	18	ROK RAW	DSL Rays 2	14	8	51	221	63	27	0	57%	3.6	28.5%	12.2%	16.3%	0.0%	3.71	2.22	—
2022	19	MIX MLE	2 levels	15	10	42	183	58	28	3	67%	2.8	21.8%	17.5%	4.3%	3.1%	2.14	5.18	—
2022	19	MIX RAW	2 levels	15	10	42	183	58	28	3	67%	2.8	31.7%	15.3%	16.4%	1.6%	2.14	3.27	—
2023	20	MIX MLE	2 levels	26	22	104	432	144	73	2	85%	4.0	24.9%	19.8%	5.1%	0.6%	2.94	3.81	—
2023	20	MIX MLE	2 levels	26	22	104	432	144	73	2	85%	4.0	24.9%	19.8%	5.1%	0.6%	2.94	3.81	—
2023	20	MIX RAW	2 levels	26	22	104	432	144	73	2	85%	4.0	33.3%	16.9%	16.4%	0.5%	2.94	2.69	—
2024	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	26	26	119	505	159	60	9	100%	4.6	24.5%	13.6%	11.0%	2.2%	2.95	3.96	—
2024	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	26	26	119	505	159	60	9	100%	4.6	24.5%	13.6%	11.0%	2.2%	2.95	3.96	—
2024	21	MIX RAW	2 levels	26	26	119	505	159	60	9	100%	4.6	31.5%	11.9%	19.6%	1.8%	2.95	2.92	—
2025	22	MIX MLE	3 levels	16	14	55	243	62	31	2	88%	3.5	20.0%	13.0%	7.0%	0.7%	3.90	3.45	—
2025	22	MIX MLE	3 levels	16	14	55	243	62	31	2	88%	3.5	20.0%	13.0%	7.0%	0.7%	3.90	3.45	—
2025	22	MIX RAW	3 levels	16	14	55	243	62	31	2	88%	3.5	25.5%	12.8%	12.8%	0.8%	3.90	3.01	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	23	AAA MLE	Toledo Mud Hens	30	0	34	177	41	34	5	0%	1.1	19.6%	19.8%	-0.1%	2.8%	7.41	5.49	—
YTD	23	AAA MLE	Toledo Mud Hens	30	0	34	177	41	34	5	0%	1.1	19.6%	19.8%	-0.1%	2.8%	7.41	5.49	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	23	AA RAW	DET	21	0	25	128	31	23	3	0%	1.2	24.2%	18.0%	6.2%	2.3%	7.20	4.62	—
2026	23	AAA RAW	DET	9	0	9	49	10	11	2	0%	1.0	20.4%	22.4%	-2.0%	4.1%	8.00	6.46	—
ROS	23	MLB MLE	DET	5	0	6	24	5	4	1	0%	1.1	22.4%	16.0%	6.4%	2.3%	4.90	4.90	-0.0
2026 TOT	23	MLB MLE	DET	—	—	40	201	46	38	6	—	—	23.1%	18.8%	4.2%	2.8%	7.06	5.41	-0.4
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	24	MLB MLE	DET	105	0	110	464	106	66	11	0%	1.0	22.9%	14.3%	8.6%	2.4%	4.73	4.66	-0.1
2028	25	MLB MLE	DET	106	0	111	470	109	62	11	0%	1.0	23.2%	13.3%	10.0%	2.4%	4.59	4.52	+0.0
2029	26	MLB MLE	DET	106	0	111	470	110	61	11	0%	1.0	23.4%	13.0%	10.4%	2.4%	4.52	4.48	+0.1
2030	27	MLB MLE	DET	104	0	110	462	108	60	12	0%	1.1	23.3%	12.9%	10.4%	2.5%	4.51	4.51	+0.1
2031	28	MLB MLE	DET	101	0	106	448	104	58	12	0%	1.1	23.2%	13.0%	10.2%	2.6%	4.56	4.60	-0.1
2032	29	MLB MLE	DET	97	0	101	428	98	57	12	0%	1.0	22.9%	13.3%	9.7%	2.7%	4.66	4.73	-0.2
2033	30	MLB MLE	DET	91	0	95	402	91	55	12	0%	1.0	22.6%	13.6%	9.0%	2.9%	4.81	4.90	-0.4
2034	31	MLB MLE	DET	85	0	89	375	83	52	12	0%	1.0	22.2%	13.9%	8.3%	3.2%	4.99	5.11	-0.6
2027	24	MLB CTX	DET	50	0	53	224	51	32	5	0%	1.1	22.9%	14.3%	8.6%	2.3%	4.67	4.60	-0.1
2028	25	MLB CTX	DET	73	0	77	325	76	43	7	0%	1.1	23.2%	13.3%	10.0%	2.3%	4.53	4.46	+0.0
2029	26	MLB CTX	DET	86	0	90	380	89	49	9	0%	1.0	23.4%	13.0%	10.4%	2.3%	4.46	4.42	+0.1
2030	27	MLB CTX	DET	90	0	94	397	93	51	9	0%	1.0	23.3%	12.9%	10.4%	2.4%	4.45	4.45	+0.0
2031	28	MLB CTX	DET	90	0	95	401	93	52	10	0%	1.1	23.2%	13.0%	10.2%	2.5%	4.50	4.54	-0.1
2032	29	MLB CTX	DET	89	0	93	393	90	52	10	0%	1.0	22.9%	13.3%	9.7%	2.6%	4.60	4.67	-0.2
2033	30	MLB CTX	DET	84	0	88	372	84	50	10	0%	1.0	22.6%	13.6%	9.0%	2.8%	4.74	4.83	-0.4
2034	31	MLB CTX	DET	79	0	83	350	78	49	11	0%	1.1	22.2%	13.9%	8.3%	3.0%	4.92	5.04	-0.5
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		642	0	674	2845	654	380	72	0%	1.0	23.0%	13.3%	9.6%	2.5%	4.60	4.24	+2.4
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	194	113	21	0%	1.1	23.0%	13.3%	9.6%	2.5%	4.60	4.24	+0.7
Career	—	MLE		127	80	405	1761	397	286	26	63%	3.2	22.6%	16.3%	6.3%	1.5%	3.46	4.06	+2.2
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		63	39	200	869	196	141	13	63%	3.2	22.6%	16.3%	6.3%	1.5%	3.46	4.06	+0.5

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Yoniel Curet (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.90	22.4%	16.0%	2.3%	—	4.55	23.2%	9.7%	332	-0.35	—	—	—
Zach Linginfelter R 2021 · 5.53 FIP	24	SP-	5.53	19.1%	16.0%	3.7%	.295	5.01	18.8%	-0.6%	46	-0.52	3.62	109	82
James McArthur R 2019 · 5.04 FIP	22	SP-	5.04	18.8%	15.5%	2.9%	.304	4.41	20.0%	10.7%	131	-0.63	3.53	352	81
Ray Gaither R 2022 · 4.85 FIP	24	SP-	4.85	21.9%	13.2%	3.5%	.314	4.38	17.8%	5.3%	123	-0.47	3.90	164	81
Patrick Halligan R 2023 · 4.43 FIP	23	SW	4.43	18.8%	11.6%	2.6%	.330	3.73	25.0%	14.9%	174	-0.70	2.47	304	81
Cade Winquest R 2023 · 4.37 FIP	23	SP-	4.37	17.9%	12.0%	2.3%	.299	3.74	20.8%	10.5%	175	-0.63	3.11	252	81
Dean Deetz R 2017 · 4.32 FIP	23	SP-	4.32	22.2%	13.7%	2.5%	.298	4.73	29.1%	10.7%	68	+0.41	2.61	281	80
Wilian Bormie R 2023 · 5.84 FIP	22	SP-	5.84	21.6%	20.4%	3.6%	.275	4.16	23.1%	9.1%	200	-1.68	3.51	223	79
Corey Black R 2015 · 4.19 FIP	23	SW	4.19	22.1%	13.9%	2.2%	.310	3.56	22.1%	6.0%	53	-0.63	3.56	139	79
Wills Montgomerie R 2018 · 5.10 FIP	23	SP-	5.10	19.3%	19.1%	2.2%	.275	4.51	20.1%	6.0%	105	-0.59	4.51	153	79
Ryan Cardona R 2023 · 3.85 FIP	23	SP-	3.85	22.8%	16.5%	1.1%	.262	4.44	16.8%	3.5%	211	+0.59	3.62	367	78
Nick Gallagher R 2019 · 4.56 FIP	23	SP-	4.56	22.0%	17.9%	1.9%	.274	5.02	21.0%	7.0%	73	+0.46	4.10	196	78
Noah Skirrow R 2021 · 4.55 FIP	23	SP-	4.55	18.4%	11.5%	2.8%	.306	4.72	16.0%	6.0%	316	+0.17	3.97	371	78
Luis Rujano R 2023 · 4.68 FIP	20	SW	4.68	17.1%	16.6%	1.7%	.309	4.74	17.4%	0.9%	149	+0.06	4.54	202	78
Anyelo Gómez R 2016 · 4.66 FIP	23	SW	4.66	17.1%	12.2%	2.7%	.292	2.66	24.2%	15.6%	68	-2.00	2.66	145	78
Austin Vernon R 2022 · 4.38 FIP	23	SW	4.38	26.6%	14.9%	3.0%	.234	4.62	22.7%	7.8%	182	+0.24	3.37	261	77
Jarret Whorff R 2023 · 4.24 FIP	24	SW	4.24	19.5%	14.2%	1.8%	.287	4.36	19.2%	10.6%	193	+0.12	3.92	257	77
Yohan Ramírez R 2018 · 4.72 FIP	23	SW	4.72	18.2%	14.6%	2.4%	.243	4.16	27.6%	10.7%	172	-0.56	2.80	678	77
Josh White R 2023 · 5.12 FIP	22	SW	5.12	17.7%	13.9%	3.2%	.244	3.19	27.2%	16.7%	182	-1.93	1.90	247	77
Chris Campos R 2023 · 4.91 FIP	22	SP-	4.91	21.0%	11.8%	3.8%	.364	4.57	18.7%	11.7%	237	-0.34	4.54	306	76
Nolan DeVos R 2023 · 4.21 FIP	22	SP-	4.21	21.1%	14.0%	2.0%	.302	5.66	19.0%	8.3%	111	+1.45	4.21	210	76

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	4.5	99	23.0%	13.6%	1.01	4.68
Tyler Chatwood ('21)	2.6	104	19.2%	13.3%	0.94	4.48
Chad Kuhl ('24)	3.3	84	20.0%	10.4%	1.31	4.98
Aaron Sanchez ('22)	3.3	93	18.1%	10.0%	0.98	4.32
Touki Toussaint ('24)	1.4	40	23.1%	14.1%	1.25	5.39
Steven Brault ('21)	1.7	57	18.8%	11.3%	1.00	4.77
Junior Guerra ('21)	2.5	84	21.3%	11.0%	1.16	4.04