Yoniel Curet — OGILVIE

Yoniel Curet P Durham Bulls

+0.3 WAR

Age 23 RHP 6'2" / 250 lbs AAA Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2033 peak 0.9 · 2028

ERA4.47

FIP4.47

xFIP—

SIERA—

K%22.9%

BB%13.0%

K-BB%9.9%

IP76

trajectory · 10 yrs

0.9peak

2028

K†5560

Career (MLE) + Projections

Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	K%	BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
2021	18	ROK	DSL Rays 2	14	8	51	221	63	27	0	19.4%	15.3%	0.0%	3.71	3.40	+0.9
2022	19	A	Charleston RiverDogs	15	10	42	183	58	28	3	21.8%	17.5%	3.5%	2.14	5.40	-0.2
2023	20	A+	Bowling Green Hot Rods	26	22	104	432	144	73	2	24.9%	19.8%	0.5%	2.94	3.81	+1.8
2024	21	AA	Montgomery Biscuits	26	26	119	505	159	60	9	24.5%	13.6%	2.2%	2.95	3.95	+1.8
2025	22	AAA	Durham Bulls	16	14	55	243	62	31	2	20.8%	14.8%	0.7%	3.90	3.60	+0.8
▸ 2026 Season
2026	23	MLB	TB	14	14	76	321	73	42	7	22.9%	13.0%	2.3%	4.47	4.47	+0.5
▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging
2027	24	MLB	TB	14	14	78	329	77	38	8	23.5%	11.6%	2.4%	4.34	4.27	+0.7
2028	25	MLB	TB	14	14	79	334	79	36	8	23.8%	10.8%	2.4%	4.22	4.15	+0.9
2029	26	MLB	TB	14	14	79	334	80	36	8	24.0%	10.7%	2.4%	4.17	4.13	+0.9
2030	27	MLB	TB	14	14	78	331	80	35	8	24.0%	10.7%	2.5%	4.16	4.15	+0.9
2031	28	MLB	TB	14	14	77	326	78	35	8	24.0%	10.7%	2.5%	4.17	4.17	+0.8
2032	29	MLB	TB	14	14	76	319	76	34	8	23.8%	10.8%	2.5%	4.20	4.22	+0.7
2033	30	MLB	TB	13	13	73	309	73	34	8	23.6%	10.9%	2.6%	4.25	4.28	+0.7
2034	31	MLB	TB	13	13	71	298	70	33	8	23.4%	11.0%	2.7%	4.31	4.36	+0.5
2035	32	MLB	TB	12	12	68	286	66	32	8	23.1%	11.2%	2.7%	4.39	4.44	+0.4
2036	33	MLB	TB	12	12	65	273	62	31	8	22.8%	11.3%	2.8%	4.48	4.54	+0.3
2037	34	MLB	TB	11	11	62	260	58	30	8	22.5%	11.5%	2.9%	4.58	4.65	+0.2
2038	35	MLB	TB	58	—	58	245	54	29	7	22.1%	11.8%	3.0%	4.70	4.77	+0.1
2039	36	MLB	TB	54	—	54	229	50	28	7	21.6%	12.0%	3.2%	4.82	4.91	+0.0
▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected)
Career	—			97	80	371	1584	365	256	22	23.0%	16.1%	1.4%	3.10	3.95	+5.7
/ 200 IP	—			52	43	200	853	197	138	12	23.0%	16.1%	1.4%	3.10	3.95	+3.1

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Yoniel Curet (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.47	22.9%	13.0%	2.3%	—	4.18	23.8%	12.7%	236	-0.29	—	—	—
Alec Barger R 2026 · 4.51 FIP	23	SW	4.51	21.7%	13.6%	2.8%	.289	4.17	21.3%	9.4%	148	-0.34	3.86	242	92
Tanner Jacobson R 2026 · 4.10 FIP	23	SW	4.10	22.8%	13.8%	2.1%	.313	4.90	21.1%	5.4%	115	+0.80	4.10	168	91
James Proctor R 2026 · 3.98 FIP	23	SW	3.98	22.0%	15.2%	1.5%	.277	4.39	14.0%	1.5%	48	+0.41	3.98	109	91
Luis Ramirez R 2026 · 4.69 FIP	23	SW	4.69	23.1%	15.9%	2.8%	.278	3.73	24.0%	11.4%	53	-0.96	3.73	104	91
Craig Schlitter R 2027 · 4.61 FIP	24	SW	4.61	22.7%	15.4%	2.7%	.298	4.70	14.7%	4.2%	171	+0.09	4.23	222	90
Carlos Contreras R 2027 · 4.31 FIP	24	SW	4.31	22.2%	15.6%	2.0%	.271	4.48	11.9%	2.4%	40	+0.17	4.31	107	90
Aaron Kurcz R 2027 · 4.00 FIP	24	SW	4.00	22.4%	13.6%	2.0%	.331	4.03	16.1%	8.0%	105	+0.03	3.31	213	90
Andrew Politi R 2026 · 3.61 FIP	23	SW	3.61	22.6%	13.0%	1.4%	.274	4.36	23.4%	13.0%	144	+0.75	3.37	292	90
Mason Vinyard R 2027 · 3.74 FIP	24	SW	3.74	22.7%	13.6%	1.5%	.270	4.00	22.6%	8.2%	94	+0.26	3.60	154	89
Sandy Lugo R 2026 · 4.39 FIP	23	SW	4.39	22.0%	14.8%	2.3%	.282	—	—	—	—	—	3.46	146	88
Brandon Johnson R 2027 · 4.91 FIP	24	SW	4.91	22.4%	14.2%	3.5%	.327	4.68	22.3%	12.1%	127	-0.23	3.38	188	88
Pat Light R 2027 · 4.34 FIP	24	SW	4.34	20.9%	14.5%	2.1%	.270	4.39	16.4%	2.8%	110	+0.05	4.15	172	88
Tommy Kahnle R 2028 · 4.17 FIP	25	SW	4.17	23.8%	14.8%	2.2%	.284	2.58	30.9%	21.0%	165	-1.59	1.53	433	88
William Kempner R 2025 · 4.04 FIP	22	SW	4.04	21.5%	12.2%	2.2%	.277	3.24	27.3%	11.8%	68	-0.80	3.24	129	87
Bailey Dees R 2026 · 4.27 FIP	23	SW	4.27	21.3%	13.2%	2.4%	.248	4.37	21.4%	9.6%	278	+0.10	3.41	330	87
Zack Jones R 2027 · 3.56 FIP	24	SW	3.56	23.9%	14.0%	1.3%	.280	3.63	28.1%	10.9%	57	+0.07	2.56	109	87
Jarret Whorff R 2027 · 4.24 FIP	24	SW	4.24	19.5%	14.2%	1.8%	.287	3.96	20.3%	11.1%	143	-0.28	3.84	206	87
Orlando Ortiz-Mayr R 2027 · 4.58 FIP	24	SW	4.58	21.0%	13.2%	2.9%	.341	4.72	15.7%	4.0%	343	+0.14	4.04	404	87
Jhonny Polanco R 2026 · 4.74 FIP	23	SW	4.74	18.9%	14.2%	2.6%	.283	4.09	21.3%	5.7%	48	-0.65	4.09	116	87
Jacob Webb R 2026 · 3.53 FIP	23	SW	3.53	21.6%	13.4%	1.0%	.273	4.11	24.1%	15.3%	87	+0.58	3.22	440	87

Contract

ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2028

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2033

First FA Year 2034

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2028
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2028
2028	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.9	$4M	+$3M
2029	Arb-1	$0.8M	+0.9	$4M	+$3M
2030	Arb-2	$0.9M	+0.9	$4M	+$3M
2031	Arb-3	$1M	+0.8	$4M	+$3M
2032	Ext / FA-deal	$2M	+0.7	$3M	+$2M
2033	Ext / FA-deal	$2M	+0.6	$3M	+$0.5M
Totals		$8M		$22M	+$14M