Chris Campos

P Oklahoma City Comets

Age 26 RHP 5'10" / 170 lbs AAA Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2034 peak 0.8 · 2028

Overview

AAAPROSPECTMiLBFA 2035

OGV OFP35OGV rank#910ETA2028MLB%10%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	23	MIX2 levels	25	15	110	3.43	3.66	26.1%	6.6%	—	K 20.7% · BB 7.4% · FIP 4.54
2025	24	AALAD	26	23	127	4.19	3.75	21.0%	6.0%	—	K 17.0% · BB 6.7% · FIP 4.59
2026	25	MIX2 levels	11	0	14	5.27	4.27	22.2%	9.5%	—	K 16.9% · BB 6.4% · FIP 4.64
2027PROJ	26	MLBLAD	1	1	6	4.71	4.71	16.6%	6.5%	0.0
2028PROJ43% MLB	27	MLBLAD	6	6	39	4.77	4.78	17.1%	6.7%	0.3
2029PROJ63% MLB	28	MLBLAD	9	9	52	4.80	4.83	17.4%	6.9%	0.4

Next 3 projected WAR 0.7Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2034Service0.0First FA2035

2027MiLB2028MiLB2029Pre-Arb$0.8M2030Pre-Arb$0.8M2031Pre-Arb$0.9M2032Ext$3M2033Ext$5M2034Ext$7M

Scouting grades · 20-80

Stuff40Control60Command50

Career WAR0.0 WAR median (P10 0.0 / P90 0.1, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 97%

CompsNick Payero (age 24) · Aaron Northcraft (age 26) · Jake Walkinshaw (age 26)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 123115vR 106

ERA4.71

FIP4.71

K%16.6%

BB%6.5%

K-BB%10.1%

Proj IP60

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 60 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$7M ctrl surplus

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF4040

CTRL6060

CMD5050

K†4040

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2029

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2034

First FA Year 2035

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2029	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.4	$1M	+$0.7M
2030	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.3	$1.0M	+$0.3M
2031	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.2	$0.6M	+$0.0M
2032	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2033	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2034	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$3M		$3M	+$1M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2022	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	6	5	7	28	9	1	1	83%	1.2	32.1%	3.6%	28.6%	3.6%	4.91	2.80	—
2022	21	MIX RAW	2 levels	6	5	7	28	9	1	1	83%	1.2	32.1%	3.6%	28.6%	3.6%	4.91	2.83	—
2023	22	A MLE	Rancho Cucamonga Quakes	25	16	69	300	85	30	9	64%	2.8	21.0%	11.8%	9.2%	3.8%	5.06	4.91	—
2023	22	A RAW	Rancho Cucamonga Quakes	25	16	69	300	85	30	9	64%	2.8	28.3%	10.0%	18.3%	3.0%	5.06	3.63	—
2024	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	25	15	110	452	118	30	16	60%	4.4	20.7%	7.4%	13.3%	4.1%	3.43	4.54	—
2024	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	25	15	110	452	118	30	16	60%	4.4	20.7%	7.4%	13.3%	4.1%	3.43	4.54	—
2024	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	25	15	110	452	118	30	16	60%	4.4	26.1%	6.6%	19.5%	3.5%	3.43	3.66	—
2025	24	AA MLE	Tulsa Drillers	26	23	127	529	111	32	16	88%	4.9	17.0%	6.7%	10.3%	3.8%	4.19	4.59	—
2025	24	AA MLE	Tulsa Drillers	26	23	127	529	111	32	16	88%	4.9	17.0%	6.7%	10.3%	3.8%	4.19	4.59	—
2025	24	AA RAW	Tulsa Drillers	26	23	127	529	111	32	16	88%	4.9	21.0%	6.0%	14.9%	3.0%	4.19	3.75	—
2026	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	11	0	14	63	14	6	2	0%	1.2	16.9%	6.4%	10.5%	3.9%	5.27	4.64	—
2026	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	11	0	14	63	14	6	2	0%	1.2	16.9%	6.4%	10.5%	3.9%	5.27	4.64	—
2026	25	MIX RAW	2 levels	11	0	14	63	14	6	2	0%	1.2	22.2%	9.5%	12.7%	3.2%	5.27	4.27	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	26	MLB	LAD	1	1	6	25	4	2	1	100%	6.0	16.6%	6.5%	10.1%	3.3%	4.71	4.71	+0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	27	MLB MLE	LAD	15	15	91	386	66	26	13	100%	6.1	17.1%	6.7%	10.4%	3.3%	4.69	4.70	+0.7
2029	28	MLB MLE	LAD	14	14	83	351	61	24	12	100%	5.9	17.4%	6.9%	10.5%	3.4%	4.72	4.75	+0.6
2030	29	MLB MLE	LAD	13	13	76	322	56	23	11	100%	5.9	17.4%	7.2%	10.2%	3.5%	4.80	4.86	+0.5
2031	30	MLB MLE	LAD	11	11	69	290	50	22	11	100%	6.3	17.1%	7.5%	9.7%	3.7%	4.93	5.02	+0.3
2028	27	MLB CTX	LAD	6	6	39	165	28	11	6	100%	6.5	17.1%	6.7%	10.4%	3.5%	4.77	4.78	+0.3
2029	28	MLB CTX	LAD	9	9	52	220	38	15	8	100%	5.8	17.4%	6.9%	10.5%	3.5%	4.80	4.83	+0.4
2030	29	MLB CTX	LAD	9	9	56	236	41	17	9	100%	6.2	17.4%	7.2%	10.2%	3.7%	4.88	4.94	+0.3
2031	30	MLB CTX	LAD	9	9	55	232	40	17	9	100%	6.1	17.1%	7.5%	9.7%	3.9%	5.02	5.11	+0.2
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		34	34	201	850	147	60	31	100%	5.9	17.3%	7.1%	10.2%	3.7%	4.88	4.55	+2.0
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		33	33	200	844	146	60	31	100%	6.0	17.3%	7.1%	10.2%	3.7%	4.88	4.55	+2.0
Career	—	MLE		93	59	327	1372	266	109	53	63%	3.5	19.4%	8.0%	11.4%	3.9%	4.18	4.61	+2.1
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		57	36	200	838	163	67	33	63%	3.5	19.4%	8.0%	11.4%	3.9%	4.18	4.61	+1.3

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 AAAOklahoma City Comets · 12 IPFIP 4.31 → 4.64 (+0.34)K% 19.6% → 16.9%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	19.64%	—	×0.860	16.89%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	7.14%	—	×0.900	6.43%
HR / BF /BF	3.57%	÷1.000	×1.100	3.93%

Factors used: pitcher AAA level factors (Triple-A 2023+ robo-zone set: walks improve on promotion) — K ×0.86, BB ×0.90, HR ×1.10. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 4.31 → 4.64, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 AATulsa Drillers · 127 IPFIP 3.75 → 4.59 (+0.84)K% 21.0% → 17.0%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	20.98%	—	×0.810	17.00%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	6.05%	—	×1.100	6.65%
HR / BF /BF	3.02%	÷0.957	×1.200	3.79%

Factors used: pitcher AA level factors — K ×0.81, BB ×1.10, HR ×1.20. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 91).

Result: FIP 3.75 → 4.59, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 AATulsa Drillers · 65 IPFIP 3.94 → 4.70 (+0.76)K% 25.1% → 20.3%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	25.09%	—	×0.810	20.32%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	7.38%	—	×1.100	8.12%
HR / BF /BF	3.69%	÷1.063	×1.200	4.16%

Result: FIP 3.94 → 4.70, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 A+Great Lakes Loons · 46 IPFIP 3.29 → 4.30 (+1.02)K% 27.6% → 21.3%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	27.62%	—	×0.770	21.27%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	5.52%	—	×1.150	6.35%
HR / BF /BF	3.31%	÷1.036	×1.250	4.00%

Factors used: pitcher A+ level factors — K ×0.77, BB ×1.15, HR ×1.25. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 107).

Result: FIP 3.29 → 4.30, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 ARancho Cucamonga Quakes · 69 IPFIP 3.62 → 4.91 (+1.29)K% 28.3% → 21.0%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	28.33%	—	×0.740	20.97%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	10.00%	—	×1.180	11.80%
HR / BF /BF	3.00%	÷1.025	×1.300	3.81%

Factors used: pitcher A level factors — K ×0.74, BB ×1.18, HR ×1.30. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 105).

Result: FIP 3.62 → 4.91, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 ARancho Cucamonga Quakes · 5 IPFIP 4.25 → 4.96 (+0.71)K% 22.7% → 16.8%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	22.73%	—	×0.740	16.82%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	4.55%	—	×1.180	5.36%
HR / BF /BF	4.55%	÷1.247	×1.300	4.74%

Result: FIP 4.25 → 4.96, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Chris Campos (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.71	16.6%	6.5%	3.3%	—	4.77	17.3%	10.4%	251	+0.06	—	—	—
Nick Payero R 2024 · 4.21 FIP	24	SP-	4.21	16.5%	6.3%	3.1%	.285	5.81	16.6%	4.6%	107	+1.60	4.21	178	82
Aaron Northcraft R 2016 · 4.19 FIP	26	SW	4.19	16.1%	8.3%	2.5%	.309	3.32	24.1%	13.4%	34	-0.87	3.32	252	82
Jake Walkinshaw R 2022 · 4.61 FIP	26	SP-	4.61	17.5%	6.4%	4.0%	.296	4.82	13.1%	3.7%	116	+0.21	2.84	310	81
Jeremy Hefner R 2012 · 3.56 FIP	26	SP-	3.56	15.2%	4.2%	2.2%	.316	4.33	17.8%	11.9%	131	+0.77	3.56	322	81
Brad Lincoln R 2011 · 3.78 FIP	26	SP-	3.78	13.7%	5.7%	2.1%	.301	4.23	22.3%	13.9%	120	+0.45	3.78	280	81
Ricky Castro R 2024 · 3.99 FIP	24	SP-	3.99	20.4%	8.6%	2.8%	.287	5.11	19.0%	10.6%	178	+1.12	3.99	241	80
Bryce Morrow R 2015 · 4.31 FIP	27	SP-	4.31	12.8%	7.9%	2.4%	.316	5.44	10.1%	-0.2%	50	+1.13	4.31	125	80
David Griffin R 2022 · 4.71 FIP	26	SP-	4.71	16.6%	9.8%	3.2%	.285	5.83	14.2%	5.0%	81	+1.12	4.43	239	79
Alfonso Sanchez R 2015 · 4.96 FIP	27	SP-	4.96	12.5%	9.1%	3.2%	.346	4.85	14.0%	5.3%	138	-0.11	4.51	224	77
Josh Roeder R 2019 · 4.71 FIP	26	SW	4.71	15.1%	8.7%	3.3%	.264	—	—	—	—	—	4.71	175	77
Kolton Mahoney R 2018 · 3.93 FIP	26	SW	3.93	13.8%	5.6%	2.3%	.328	3.56	19.4%	10.6%	109	-0.37	3.56	302	77
Carlos Torres R 2009 · 5.24 FIP	26	SP-	5.24	16.9%	11.5%	3.9%	.284	3.59	18.2%	7.3%	67	-1.65	2.89	604	77
Ryan Tapani R 2019 · 3.86 FIP	25	SW	3.86	19.0%	7.3%	2.6%	.331	5.56	20.8%	10.6%	47	+1.70	3.86	141	76
Grant Judkins R 2024 · 5.13 FIP	26	SW	5.13	16.8%	9.1%	4.2%	.264	5.80	14.9%	5.8%	124	+0.67	5.13	322	76
Parker Curry R 2019 · 4.79 FIP	25	SP-	4.79	17.8%	5.4%	4.6%	.266	—	—	—	—	—	3.73	256	76
Nolan Sanburn R 2017 · 4.55 FIP	26	SW	4.55	15.0%	10.4%	2.5%	.310	—	—	—	—	—	3.82	169	76
Dakota Hawkins R 2024 · 4.31 FIP	24	SW	4.31	16.3%	8.9%	2.7%	.277	4.32	19.4%	10.4%	102	+0.01	3.50	186	76
Mike Connolly R 2018 · 5.13 FIP	26	SW	5.13	13.2%	9.4%	3.5%	.321	—	—	—	—	—	3.94	328	75
Max Beatty R 2017 · 3.88 FIP	26	SP-	3.88	13.2%	6.4%	2.0%	.309	—	—	—	—	—	3.88	117	75
Whit Mayberry R 2016 · 3.54 FIP	26	SP-	3.54	16.2%	4.3%	2.3%	.267	2.64	12.3%	7.7%	11	-0.90	2.64	140	75

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,234 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 480 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.9	76	17.2%	7.0%	1.34	4.77
Paul Reuschel ('75-'79, 1 WAR*)	2.0	79	16.8%*	7.6%*	1.29*	4.76*
Travis Harper ('06)	2.1	69	15.0%	7.5%	1.33	4.94
Joe Biagini ('21)	1.7	83	19.0%	7.9%	1.28	5.03
Bob Wells ('02)	3.2	79	15.0%	7.2%	1.43	5.03
Tom House ('71-'78, 3 WAR*)	2.7	77	17.3%*	7.8%*	1.25*	4.14*
Rich Monteleone ('87-'96, 2 WAR*)	1.8	71	18.7%*	7.5%*	1.39*	4.03*