Josh White — OGILVIE

Josh White P Jacksonville Jumbo Shrimp

Age 25 RHP 6'1" / 205 lbs AAA Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2032 peak 0.7 · 2027 ILReassigned to Minors (RM)

2026 ROS PROJECTION57 act + 6 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 9990vR 82

ERA3.44

FIP3.44

K%31.3%

BB%10.2%

K-BB%21.1%

ROS IP6

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 63 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$11M ctrl surplus

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

OFP—45

STUF—60

CTRL—45

K†7070

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2027

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2032

First FA Year 2033

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2027
2027	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.8	$3M	+$2M
2028	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.8	$3M	+$2M
2029	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2030	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2031	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2032	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$2M		$6M	+$4M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2022	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	9	0	11	57	16	8	1	0%	1.2	28.1%	14.0%	14.0%	1.8%	6.55	3.47	—
2022	21	MIX RAW	2 levels	9	0	11	57	16	8	1	0%	1.2	28.1%	14.0%	14.0%	1.8%	6.55	3.55	—
2023	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	30	9	65	276	65	33	6	30%	2.2	17.7%	13.9%	3.8%	3.2%	3.46	5.12	—
2023	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	30	9	65	276	65	33	6	30%	2.2	17.7%	13.9%	3.8%	3.2%	3.46	5.12	—
2023	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	30	9	65	276	65	33	6	30%	2.2	23.6%	12.0%	11.6%	2.2%	3.46	3.82	—
2024	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	40	3	60	251	80	25	4	8%	1.5	24.5%	11.4%	13.1%	1.7%	3.02	3.39	—
2024	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	40	3	60	251	80	25	4	8%	1.5	24.5%	11.4%	13.1%	1.7%	3.02	3.39	—
2024	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	40	3	60	251	80	25	4	8%	1.5	31.9%	10.0%	21.9%	1.6%	3.02	2.55	—
2025	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	45	2	68	262	107	23	2	4%	1.5	33.5%	8.8%	24.7%	0.9%	1.86	1.90	—
2025	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	45	2	68	262	107	23	2	4%	1.5	33.5%	8.8%	24.7%	0.9%	1.86	1.90	—
2025	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	45	2	68	262	107	23	2	4%	1.5	40.8%	8.8%	32.1%	0.8%	1.86	1.34	—
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			1	0	1	8	1	4	1	0%	0.7	12.5%	50.0%	-37.5%	12.5%	67.50	37.60	-0.3
▸ 2026 season
YTD	25	MLB MLE	Miami Marlins	37	1	57	238	63	34	8	3%	1.5	22.4%	11.7%	10.6%	3.3%	3.18	4.54	—
YTD	25	MLB MLE	Miami Marlins	37	1	57	238	63	34	8	3%	1.5	22.4%	11.7%	10.6%	3.3%	3.18	4.54	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	25	AAA RAW	MIA	36	1	56	230	62	30	7	3%	1.6	27.0%	13.0%	13.9%	3.0%	2.41	4.15	—
2026	25	MLB RAW	MIA	1	0	1	8	1	4	1	0%	0.7	12.5%	50.0%	-37.5%	12.5%	67.50	15.24	—
SO FAR	25	MLB RAW	MIA	1	0	1	8	1	4	1	0%	0.7	12.5%	50.0%	-37.5%	12.5%	67.50	15.24	—
ROS	25	MLB MLE	MIA	6	0	6	25	8	3	1	0%	1.0	31.3%	10.2%	21.1%	2.4%	3.44	3.44	+0.1
ROS	25	MLB CTX	MIA	6	0	6	25	8	3	1	0%	1.0	31.3%	10.2%	21.1%	2.3%	3.37	3.37	+0.1
2026 TOT	25	MLB MLE	MIA	—	—	63	263	71	37	9	—	—	26.9%	13.9%	13.0%	3.3%	3.20	4.43	+0.1
FULL	25	MLB A+C	MIA	—	—	7	28	71	37	9	—	—	257.1%	132.8%	124.3%	31.1%	30.65	15.28	+0.0
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	26	MLB MLE	MIA	67	0	70	296	91	30	7	0%	1.0	30.7%	10.1%	20.6%	2.4%	3.51	3.51	+0.9
2028	27	MLB MLE	MIA	66	0	69	291	88	29	7	0%	1.0	30.2%	10.1%	20.0%	2.5%	3.59	3.60	+0.8
2029	28	MLB MLE	MIA	64	0	67	282	84	29	7	0%	1.0	29.7%	10.2%	19.5%	2.7%	3.69	3.72	+0.7
2030	29	MLB MLE	MIA	61	0	64	270	79	28	8	0%	1.0	29.3%	10.4%	18.9%	2.8%	3.81	3.87	+0.5
2027	26	MLB CTX	MIA	63	0	66	279	86	28	6	0%	1.0	30.7%	10.1%	20.6%	2.3%	3.44	3.44	+0.8
2028	27	MLB CTX	MIA	63	0	66	279	84	28	7	0%	1.0	30.2%	10.1%	20.0%	2.4%	3.52	3.53	+0.8
2029	28	MLB CTX	MIA	61	0	64	270	80	28	7	0%	1.0	29.7%	10.2%	19.5%	2.5%	3.62	3.65	+0.6
2030	29	MLB CTX	MIA	58	0	61	258	75	27	7	0%	1.1	29.3%	10.4%	18.9%	2.7%	3.73	3.79	+0.5
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		251	0	263	1115	333	117	28	0%	1.0	29.9%	10.5%	19.4%	2.5%	3.73	3.30	+3.9
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		191	0	200	848	253	89	21	0%	1.0	29.9%	10.5%	19.4%	2.5%	3.73	3.30	+3.0
Career	—	MLE		161	15	260	1084	267	126	24	9%	1.6	24.7%	11.6%	13.0%	2.2%	3.01	3.72	+2.6
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		124	12	200	834	206	97	19	9%	1.6	24.7%	11.6%	13.0%	2.2%	3.01	3.72	+1.9

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Josh White (OGILVIE)	—	—	3.44	31.3%	10.2%	2.4%	—	3.61	30.2%	20.1%	206	+0.17	—	—	—
Lucas Wepf R 2023 · 3.62 FIP	23	SU	3.62	27.6%	10.7%	2.7%	.323	3.97	26.2%	13.8%	136	+0.35	2.90	195	84
Ben Heller R 2017 · 2.86 FIP	25	SU	2.86	32.4%	9.4%	2.4%	.243	—	—	—	—	—	2.49	246	83
Jake Smith R 2015 · 3.11 FIP	25	SU	3.11	28.1%	7.5%	2.6%	.243	4.69	19.3%	-1.7%	26	+1.58	3.11	110	83
Steven Wilson R 2019 · 3.99 FIP	24	SU	3.99	27.2%	10.7%	3.3%	.271	3.81	29.3%	19.9%	92	-0.18	3.64	328	83
Zac Leigh R 2023 · 3.84 FIP	25	SU	3.84	28.1%	11.7%	3.0%	.282	4.58	19.9%	3.7%	131	+0.74	3.70	201	83
Justin Grimm R 2015 · 3.00 FIP	26	SU	3.00	32.8%	12.3%	2.0%	.250	4.17	26.1%	15.2%	157	+1.17	3.00	335	83
Nelson L. Alvarez R 2023 · 2.58 FIP	25	SU	2.58	28.6%	10.6%	1.0%	.319	4.36	21.2%	9.7%	86	+1.78	2.58	233	82
Simon Castro R 2015 · 3.28 FIP	27	SU	3.28	26.4%	8.5%	2.4%	.320	3.58	26.0%	17.6%	128	+0.30	3.01	185	82
J.B. Wendelken R 2018 · 3.31 FIP	25	SU	3.31	29.5%	9.5%	2.7%	.286	3.78	23.3%	14.1%	140	+0.47	3.08	393	82
Matt Seelinger R 2019 · 3.13 FIP	24	SU	3.13	27.9%	10.3%	2.0%	.358	4.78	24.9%	9.1%	103	+1.65	3.13	368	82
Connor Brogdon R 2019 · 3.64 FIP	24	SU	3.64	29.7%	8.8%	3.5%	.236	3.37	23.6%	17.2%	102	-0.27	2.98	401	81
Jon Edwards R 2015 · 3.40 FIP	27	SU	3.40	31.7%	13.1%	2.4%	.264	2.40	30.3%	22.6%	30	-1.00	2.40	132	81
Mark Montgomery R 2016 · 2.88 FIP	25	SU	2.88	27.6%	11.7%	1.1%	.271	2.67	24.0%	17.5%	80	-0.21	2.60	169	81
Shane Smith R 2023 · 3.52 FIP	23	SU	3.52	28.1%	10.4%	2.7%	.259	3.59	22.9%	13.1%	284	+0.07	3.01	342	81
Magnus Ellerts R 2023 · 3.61 FIP	22	SU	3.61	29.5%	11.5%	2.8%	.325	3.98	27.0%	10.2%	118	+0.37	3.56	159	81
Franco Aleman R 2023 · 2.92 FIP	23	SU	2.92	28.4%	8.8%	2.0%	.315	2.96	29.2%	19.7%	114	+0.04	2.38	225	81
Leonel Campos R 2015 · 2.62 FIP	28	SU	2.62	30.1%	11.1%	1.2%	.259	3.63	25.2%	12.2%	118	+1.01	2.62	168	81
Shane Broyles R 2017 · 3.34 FIP	25	SU	3.34	29.9%	7.3%	3.4%	.259	3.89	23.0%	11.7%	54	+0.55	3.34	218	80
Addison Russ R 2019 · 3.11 FIP	24	SU	3.11	27.7%	9.3%	2.1%	.321	4.58	24.3%	8.8%	44	+1.47	3.08	194	80
Brad Boxberger R 2015 · 3.93 FIP	27	SU	3.93	27.3%	10.0%	3.4%	.280	4.09	28.5%	17.2%	107	+0.16	3.01	363	80

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.7	67	30.2%	10.2%	0.99	3.61
Keone Kela ('19)	1.1	43	30.1%	9.4%	0.92	3.23
Diego Castillo ('22)	1.3	52	28.1%	8.9%	1.07	3.12
Corey Knebel ('22)	1.4	47	32.3%	11.2%	0.95	3.04
Joe Jiménez ('24)	1.9	53	29.8%	8.6%	1.11	4.06
Ryan Buchter ('19)	1.1	53	26.7%	10.8%	1.10	2.87
Adam Ottavino ('24)	2.3	59	29.3%	11.4%	0.86	3.18